when does the United States crumble? will it happen in our lifetimes?

[TwiceHorn 31184]

10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Atom has a point. When Covid took out the hospitality industry, millions of unemployed led to higher crime. No jobs, meant people need to steal to get resources. If automation increases unemployment, and not just temporarily, then that could affect stability. David Chang had an episode about it. What will happen when technology replaces some food industry jobs like cooks? The food industry employs a shit ton of unskilled labor. Technology won’t replace everyone, but it will try. I went to an advanced McDonalds in Chicago. One of the nicest places I’ve ever been. They had like 1 person you could see. Everyone ordered at Kiosks. The employee took the food from the kitchen pass to the pickup spot. If Tech replaced cooks. Just more people without jobs. 

Was there really an attempt to correlate unemployment to a need to steal for sustenance?

I'm always wary of explanations for rises and dips in the crime rate, and the more "intutitive" it sounds (fewer police = more crime!) the less accurate it seems to be.

There is definitely a strong correlation between social unrest and rises in crime rates, but the reasoning from sophisticated studies is more complex than "need food," usually.  If I am not mistaken, property crimes such as theft are broadly down since the pandemic, while violent crimes are up, and that's usually attributed to the idleness of unemployment and too many people rubbing up against each other at home and in the hood.

[fattyflattie 4636]

38 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

I think it’s pretty clear what you think about those less fortunate than yourself. 

It’s extremely clear.  There are only about 5 things you have to do in America to never be *poor.  They are extremely simple, and can be accomplished by nearly everyone. 

But to get back on track with the thread.  My bet is it will be something political that takes us down.  There will be an eveN stronger division, the chaos for a bit, and we will not recover. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21780]

I'm pretty sure that I'll be around to watch the White House burn during the Battle of Georgetown

[TwiceHorn 31184]

37 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Was there really an attempt to correlate unemployment to a need to steal for sustenance?

I'm always wary of explanations for rises and dips in the crime rate, and the more "intutitive" it sounds (fewer police = more crime!) the less accurate it seems to be.

There is definitely a strong correlation between social unrest and rises in crime rates, but the reasoning from sophisticated studies is more complex than "need food," usually.  If I am not mistaken, property crimes such as theft are broadly down since the pandemic, while violent crimes are up, and that's usually attributed to the idleness of unemployment and too many people rubbing up against each other at home and in the hood.

But, yeah, one of the huge problems with automation is not just the worker replaced, but the "support worker."

When manufacturing decamped abroad, it wasn't just machine tool operators that got hurt.  There were a bunch of less-skilled people supporting a manufacturing operation, down to the people that swept up chips.  That provided a lot of employment for "morons," people with low skills and little ability to acquire more.

"What are we going to do with the morons" may be the biggest challenge we have ever faced.  Automation is going to displace a ton of morons.

Edited December 13, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[immortal13 4059]

4 hours ago, Celery Man said:

Yeah I don’t need a cell phone for work either (although they did give me one). But I don’t clock in, I don’t work shifts, I’m not on call, my boss calling me at home would be a pretty severe breach of what the fuck, etc. Because I’m a salaried white collar office worker. There are a lot of jobs across the payscale that require you to have a cell phone. Often it is not provided.

 Never mind trying to get a job if you don’t have reliable access to email or have a phone number where you can be reached.

 

[UT_OB1 2200]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The manufacturing lines will be automated, and as for servicing/repairing the robots, It's not going to be the guy who stocked the shelves at Walmart and was replaced by that robot, or the cashier who worked at that Walmart for that matter.  

It's not about technophobia, it's about planning for a future where a shit-ton of people are going to be replaced.  Not made more efficient, not replaced in one industry while a a new industry opens up elsewhere that can accommodate them, because the point is to replace as much human labor as possible.  The companies doing this are not out to make people more efficient, they are out to replace employees with machines that don't need to sleep or need time off, and will never try and unionize (well not until the A.I. War of 2034, but yeah, I need to shut the fuck up about that before somebody from 2038 pays me a visit).

We had pressure valves in the past when we had major technical breakthroughs - new industries constantly cropping up, that didn't require higher education for a lot of jobs.  A new machine in 1890 that allowed one person to do the work of four?  Well, somebody has to build or service that machine, and somebody (or two somebodies) has to help haul away the increased output from that machine and get it shipped, and those job openings could all be filled by the three people that were replaced by the machine.

Those jobs for 11 year-olds at textile factories going away?  There were always replacement jobs for those folks (except during economic depressions/etc.). The next generation didn't have 8 or 9 kids, and so on.  In fact, we are currently below our replacement level of births, and somebody better start having kids.  The point is, there was always some kind of change going on and we could adjust.

But this is a new issue.  If we crumble as a nation, it's not going to be because of outside aggressors or political issues, it's going to be because we don't figure out how to anticipate and head off these kinds of problems.  People bitched about covid payouts to people idled at home, but what do we do when a few million people are replaced by automation in a short amount of time?

 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Atom has a point. When Covid took out the hospitality industry, millions of unemployed led to higher crime. No jobs, meant people need to steal to get resources. If automation increases unemployment, and not just temporarily, then that could affect stability. David Chang had an episode about it. What will happen when technology replaces some food industry jobs like cooks? The food industry employs a shit ton of unskilled labor. Technology won’t replace everyone, but it will try. I went to an advanced McDonalds in Chicago. One of the nicest places I’ve ever been. They had like 1 person you could see. Everyone ordered at Kiosks. The employee took the food from the kitchen pass to the pickup spot. If Tech replaced cooks. Just more people without jobs. 
 

edit: added video of automated fry cook

 

 

12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

But, yeah, one of the huge problems with automation is not just the worker replaced, but the "support worker."

When manufacturing decamped abroad, it wasn't just machine tool operators that got hurt.  There were a bunch of less-skilled people supporting a manufacturing operation, down to the people that swept up chips.  That provided a lot of employment for "morons," people with low skills and little ability to acquire more.

"What are we going to do with the morons" may be the biggest challenge we have ever faced.  Automation is going to displace a ton of morons.

I’m not as pessimistic as some of you, but I do see us headed towards a Wall-E type situation. Too many willing to be fat and lazy staring at a screen all day. I I completely realize the irony as I type this.  
 

I’m not sure the WallE like scenario (or Terminator) doesn’t overestimate AI. If AI doesn’t become advanced enough to handle not just the conveyor line, but also keeping the conveyor line (and everything else) running, then the second or third generation of WallE humans isn’t floating around space carefree, they are in an oh shit situation where machines are starting to break down and no one alive knows anything about them. 

[wild_turkey 3150]

This cell phone debate is ridiculous and full of straw man arguments from both sides.

Phone access is practically a necessity in our country and a cell phone is the most cost efficient way to do that. Unless perhaps you work mowing grass or cleaning houses, but even then you need some way to get in touch with your boss or clients.

Ag with kids doesn’t need a cell phone for his job. Hobbes works for a company that doesn’t accept applications without a phone. Congrats to both of you. Get a room.

Having a phone does not require an iPhone 13 Pro with unlimited data. There are shitty phones that are practically free but they serve the basic function of communication and there are plans that start around $15/month with a small amount of data. So truly poor people who are struggling to buy food still have options. Surely there are poor people with misplaced priorities who overspend on a better cell phone for XYZ reasons, so I think that point is a little bit valid, but there are also middle class or upper class people that overspend on all kinds of bullshit too while ignoring basic needs. And neither of those seem likely to be a significant contributor to whether or not the U.S. crumbles.

…

I think on a long enough time period, the U.S. will eventually cease to exist, just like every other great empire in the history of the world. If that happens in the next ~100 years, it seems the most likely scenario is that our internal social/political conflict interferes with our ability to maintain first class technology, manufacturing, and military power, allowing China or Russia to take advantage and overpower us. It seems inevitable that the U.S. and the world at large are headed for a reckoning with at least China. If we survive beyond ~100 years, who knows?

[Mole 4318]

The boots theory seems relevant to some of the discussion of poor people making poor choices.

Spoiler

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

Sometimes — not always — those seemingly “poor choices” reveal the blindness of our relative privilege rather than the poor choices of a poor person. What looks frivolous and unnecessary to me may be the tools of the trade for someone less fortunate. And sometimes the recklessness is a bit of “let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.” If there’s no hope, why not search for instant material gratification?

Edited December 13, 2021 by Mole

[workswithseed 2033]

20 minutes ago, Mole said:

The boots theory seems relevant to some of the discussion of poor people making poor choices.

  Reveal hidden contents

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

Sometimes — not always — those seemingly “poor choices” reveal the blindness of our relative privilege rather than the poor choices of a poor person. What looks frivolous and unnecessary to me may be the tools of the trade for someone less fortunate. And sometimes the recklessness is a bit of “let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.” If there’s no hope, why not search for instant material gratification?

Yolo was literally a phrase of a generation.

[UpperWestside 6104]

1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

 

 

I’m not as pessimistic as some of you, but I do see us headed towards a Wall-E type situation. Too many willing to be fat and lazy staring at a screen all day. I I completely realize the irony as I type this.  
 

I’m not sure the WallE like scenario (or Terminator) doesn’t overestimate AI. If AI doesn’t become advanced enough to handle not just the conveyor line, but also keeping the conveyor line (and everything else) running, then the second or third generation of WallE humans isn’t floating around space carefree, they are in an oh shit situation where machines are starting to break down and no one alive knows anything about them. 

I have mentioned this before, but the show on Prime called The Expanse shows what I believe our future will look like for the poor and destitute. They are given a monthly stipend because there are no jobs left for them to do in America because of automation. 

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

This thread is maniacal. I think UBI will be understood and accepted in our lifetime.

[DigglerontheHoof 21022]

As long as it holds out the next 20-25 years....

[52-80 19066]

8 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

I think on a long enough time period, the U.S. will eventually cease to exist, just like every other great empire in the history of the world. If that happens in the next ~100 years, it seems the most likely scenario is that our internal social/political conflict interferes with our ability to maintain first class technology, manufacturing, and military power, allowing China or Russia to take advantage and overpower us. It seems inevitable that the U.S. and the world at large are headed for a reckoning with at least China. If we survive beyond ~100 years, who knows?

The all-time great empires suffered slow declines.  The relatively recent powers had their deaths punctuated by major warfare.  Neither of those really apply as US is barely 250 years old and we're not really operating in territorial-imperialism anymore.  It's a more economically connected state of global affairs now... and there are trillions of US debt held by foreign CBs, including $2T in East Asia alone.  The US-Sino relationship is both in tension and in balance. 

[Celery Man 20874]

10 hours ago, Mole said:

The boots theory seems relevant to some of the discussion of poor people making poor choices.

  Reveal hidden contents

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

Sometimes — not always — those seemingly “poor choices” reveal the blindness of our relative privilege rather than the poor choices of a poor person. What looks frivolous and unnecessary to me may be the tools of the trade for someone less fortunate. And sometimes the recklessness is a bit of “let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.” If there’s no hope, why not search for instant material gratification?

I think there are a ton of examples of how poverty is expensive. Laundromats. Not being able to replace your $1000 car with a $3000 car because you keep having to dump money into the $1000 car. Interest rates, food, healthcare, costs from moving frequently, daycare, etc etc etc. 

didn't mean to go here with this post but I did so - 

 

A related dynamic is the value of time. Obviously in a very real way, the time of a someone making a low wage is worth very little in comparison with a high wage earner. In another very real way, it is exactly the opposite. I'm about to leave in the middle of the day to pick up a prescription for my dog. I'm supposed to stop by Publix because they didn't have the right curried tofu at Wegman's for the meal my wife wants to make tonight. Not a problem, I'm not paid for my time in that way. I drove down to the library the other week in the middle of the day to vote - not a big deal, if I had wound up at the wrong place it wouldn't have prevented me from voting. The ice maker is acting up in the fridge - maybe I'm going to end up needing someone to come by and fix it. It will not cost me anything in lost wages to make sure someone is home for that. It doesn't mean that we either have to get ice from the store or not have ice ever or until we come by some cheap to free freezer with a working ice maker. Already getting to work was a huge difference - I can afford to live closer to my job, I have reliable transportation, I don't have to spend an hour fifteen on 3 buses both ways to get to my job. And now with remote work, I don't have to spend any time commuting at all if I don't feel like it.  From another perspective - I could lose a job and not immediately be sent into a poverty spiral - I don't need to replace it FUCKING TOMORROW, I need to replace it with another quality job and because I have money and credit and am not already drowning. I can take my time finding the right fit.

 

11 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

It’s extremely clear.  There are only about 5 things you have to do in America to never be *poor.  They are extremely simple, and can be accomplished by nearly everyone. 

are you going to publish them in a book or something, or are you just holding on to that warmth you feel inside when you see people struggling

Edited December 13, 2021 by Celery Man

[52-80 19066]

29 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I think there are a ton of examples of how poverty is expensive. Laundromats. Not being able to replace your $1000 car with a $3000 car because you keep having to dump money into the $1000 car. Interest rates, food, healthcare, costs from moving frequently, daycare, etc etc etc. 

didn't mean to go here with this post but I did so - 

this problem could easily be overcome as long as people dont buy stupid saabs

[BabaYaga 15202]

11 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

But, yeah, one of the huge problems with automation is not just the worker replaced, but the "support worker."

When manufacturing decamped abroad, it wasn't just machine tool operators that got hurt.  There were a bunch of less-skilled people supporting a manufacturing operation, down to the people that swept up chips.  That provided a lot of employment for "morons," people with low skills and little ability to acquire more.

"What are we going to do with the morons" may be the biggest challenge we have ever faced.  Automation is going to displace a ton of morons.

I'm old enough to remember the doom/gloom prognosticators saying the internet would lead to tens of millions of displaced workers.  While many will see changes, these paradigm shifts are often accompanied by untold millions more in new innovative roles that were previously never even contemplated.  

To the rest?

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

44 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I think there are a ton of examples of how poverty is expensive. Laundromats. Not being able to replace your $1000 car with a $3000 car because you keep having to dump money into the $1000 car. Interest rates, food, healthcare, costs from moving frequently, daycare, etc etc etc. 

didn't mean to go here with this post but I did so - 

 

A related dynamic is the value of time. Obviously in a very real way, the time of a someone making a low wage is worth very little in comparison with a high wage earner. In another very real way, it is exactly the opposite. I'm about to leave in the middle of the day to pick up a prescription for my dog. I'm supposed to stop by Publix because they didn't have the right curried tofu at Wegman's for the meal my wife wants to make tonight. Not a problem, I'm not paid for my time in that way. I drove down to the library the other week in the middle of the day to vote - not a big deal, if I had wound up at the wrong place it wouldn't have prevented me from voting. The ice maker is acting up in the fridge - maybe I'm going to end up needing someone to come by and fix it. It will not cost me anything in lost wages to make sure someone is home for that. It doesn't mean that we either have to get ice from the store or not have ice ever or until we come by some cheap to free freezer with a working ice maker. Already getting to work was a huge difference - I can afford to live closer to my job, I have reliable transportation, I don't have to spend an hour fifteen on 3 buses both ways to get to my job. And now with remote work, I don't have to spend any time commuting at all if I don't feel like it.  From another perspective - I could lose a job and not immediately be sent into a poverty spiral - I don't need to replace it FUCKING TOMORROW, I need to replace it with another quality job and because I have money and credit and am not already drowning. I can take my time finding the right fit.

 

are you going to publish them in a book or something, or are you just holding on to that warmth you feel inside when you see people struggling

Most of what you outlined is, in my mind, a compelling argument for UBI.

When we live in a society that matches peoples ability to live (and thrive) based on their value (in-demand skills and abilities), then you are necessarily going to have a situation where a % of the population cannot participate in meaningful ways. To me, that means we need to pay everyone a pre-determined amount to meet basic needs. Any other benefits (money, barter, goods, whatever) they can legally manifest, they can supplement their lifestyle with. This keeps people from dying in gutters and (hopefully) rising against knowledge workers.

Couple of points to the above:

1) Keeping poor people content will take on even more importance as the %'s skew with the "exponential problem" (if you don't know what that is, I can expound, but I assume most people have heard of this issue for modern societies), and

2) the good news is the "product/market fit" of in-demand skills to value is fluid. Luck, forward-thinking bets, ganas--whatever you want to call it-- can change your lifestyle and income bracket, sometimes instantly (with a covid-19 like incident) or sometimes over a lifetime (generational benefits, albeit slower).

[Ag with kids 581]

14 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

So your argument is that cell phones weren't necessary in a time before cell phones were invented?

No.  That is not what I'm saying.

[MissingInAction 24765]

16 hours ago, 52-80 said:

There will need to be people to build and service those robots. The automation will bring increased efficiency, lowering costs for everyone…and/or reward the innovators with capital that hopefully gets spent back in the economy.  Fewer jobs bagging groceries -> more jobs building pleasure boats. 
 

In general we shouldn’t harbor technophobia. It brings widespread QOL improvements across all classes of people. Imagine people back in the days worrying that their 11 year olds would no longer have a job at the textile factory…

The robots will fix the robots. 

They wont need us at all, but we will need them.

[Ag with kids 581]

12 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

This cell phone debate is ridiculous and full of straw man arguments from both sides.

Phone access is practically a necessity in our country and a cell phone is the most cost efficient way to do that. Unless perhaps you work mowing grass or cleaning houses, but even then you need some way to get in touch with your boss or clients.

Ag with kids doesn’t need a cell phone for his job. Hobbes works for a company that doesn’t accept applications without a phone. Congrats to both of you. Get a room.

Having a phone does not require an iPhone 13 Pro with unlimited data. There are shitty phones that are practically free but they serve the basic function of communication and there are plans that start around $15/month with a small amount of data. So truly poor people who are struggling to buy food still have options. Surely there are poor people with misplaced priorities who overspend on a better cell phone for XYZ reasons, so I think that point is a little bit valid, but there are also middle class or upper class people that overspend on all kinds of bullshit too while ignoring basic needs. And neither of those seem likely to be a significant contributor to whether or not the U.S. crumbles.

…

I think on a long enough time period, the U.S. will eventually cease to exist, just like every other great empire in the history of the world. If that happens in the next ~100 years, it seems the most likely scenario is that our internal social/political conflict interferes with our ability to maintain first class technology, manufacturing, and military power, allowing China or Russia to take advantage and overpower us. It seems inevitable that the U.S. and the world at large are headed for a reckoning with at least China. If we survive beyond ~100 years, who knows?

I apologize for allowing myself to be led down that rabbit hole.  I didn't intend for my example to do that.

Note that my original post was actually about misplaced priorities, not cell phones (those were only an example - there are plenty more).  I included the example because I thought giving some real world data would help explain my point.  However, in retrospect, giving no examples would probably have been the best course of action in order to ward off chasing those rabbits.

BTW, I agree that the US will cease to exist at some time.  And just like in every one of those past eras, there were people who were convinced it would never happen and people who were convinced it was right around the corner.  There's a reason they say history repeats itself...

[MissingInAction 24765]

Could the recent rise of anti science movements be related to the stupids fearing for their livelihoods?

[52-80 19066]

2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The robots will fix the robots. 

They wont need us at all, but we will need them.

Well, when the machines and prolific enough to take over, we still need the cavemen meat puppets to serve as the frontline soldiers on the Great AI wars.

But srsly, when we reach that level of automation, it will be a net positive for society.  There'll be other avenues and pursuits that require human resources.  Nobody grows up wishing to work on an assembly line - OTOH there are people who refuse such work no matter even if its the only job left. 

There's been no precedence of backsliding economy and unrest of the mass unemployed when technological improvements come in.  That stuff occurs when countries move backwards (through war, autocratic insularity, etc), not forwards.  It's the wrong kind of worry.

[Murfdogg21 4412]

NM. Free money for all. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Murfdogg21

[Celery Man 20874]

Honestly it would be great if people could make a decent living doing ditch digging work, but they can't. That's kinda the problem. It's a lot of restaurant, retail, and Amazon, and most of those don't set you down a straightforward path to a decent stable life.

"Ah, but it is their fault if they are not smart and don't make wise choices like me and therefore are unable to forge their own path out of a menial jobs that don't pay enough for a person to live!"

OK great job who gives a shit? There's not a panel of boomers who judges their education and spending history and then sends them to stand in a hole and wait for the guy with the pneumatic bolt pistol to come around. They continue to exist. There will always be anecdotes about the delivery driver who crashes the white collar frito lay meeting and tells them to make hot cheetos, or the guy who lived in his car and sold plasma to get the seed money to launch his app or whatever. And there will always be millions of unexceptional white collar workers who will twist their story of "grew up middle class, went to college, got a job, wound up middle class" as a triumph of the American spirit and an example for pathetic struggling brokedicks. But not every American has the capacity to bust out of the cycle. And even if you don't care, it's not free to have a huge population of people who can't scrape together enough to live, don't have any dignity in their work, don't have any optimism about the future, etc. And if Bezos/Walton/etc is worth $x00 billion dollars on the valuation of a company that doesn't pay enough for its employees to live (and therefore has its labor costs subsidized by the government) maybe that's not really the great triumph of capitalism either?

[MissingInAction 24765]

How do the poors have so many kids? No one wanted to fuck me when I was poor. They still dont.

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

4 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

Honestly it would be great if people could make a decent living doing ditch digging work, but they can't. That's kinda the problem. It's a lot of restaurant, retail, and Amazon, and most of those don't set you down a straightforward path to a decent stable life.

"Ah, but it is their fault if they are not smart and don't make wise choices like me and therefore are unable to forge their own path out of a menial jobs that don't pay enough for a person to live!"

OK great job who gives a shit? There's not a panel of boomers who judges their education and spending history and then sends them to stand in a hole and wait for the guy with the pneumatic bolt pistol to come around. They continue to exist. There will always be anecdotes about the delivery driver who crashes the white collar frito lay meeting and tells them to make hot cheetos, or the guy who lived in his car and sold plasma to get the seed money to launch his app or whatever. And there will always be millions of unexceptional white collar workers who will twist their story of "grew up middle class, went to college, got a job, wound up middle class" as a triumph of the American spirit and an example for pathetic struggling brokedicks. But not every American has the capacity to bust out of the cycle. And even if you don't care, it's not free to have a huge population of people who can't scrape together enough to live, don't have any dignity in their work, don't have any optimism about the future, etc. And if Bezos/Walton/etc is worth $x00 billion dollars on the valuation of a company that doesn't pay enough for its employees to live (and therefore has its labor costs subsidized by the government) maybe that's not really the great triumph of capitalism either?

But what is your point? I thought we were talking within the framework and limitations of reality, but you seem to be pontificating in a "man, sure wish it worked like this and it oughta be and should be this" without offering any tangible thoughts of a solution.

My solution to the problem statement(s) you make, and which I agree, is UBI. Pay these people.

Quote

If poverty is an endless cycle, can you tie birth control to receiving UBI so we don’t perpetuate the hopelessness and financial drain?

Point #2 specifically states I don't believe poverty is an endless cycle. It's a dynamic and fluid situation, I said.

[Celery Man 20874]

1 hour ago, MonkeyCigarette said:

But what is your point? I thought we were talking within the framework and limitations of reality, but you seem to be pontificating in a "man, sure wish it worked like this and it oughta be and should be this" without offering any tangible thoughts of a solution.

My solution to the problem statement(s) you make, and which I agree, is UBI. Pay these people.

I think the closest I got to offering a "sure wish it worked like this" is that it would be great if there were jobs adequate to sustain a real life for people at the lower end of the job market. I do think that there is a problem that could use some sort of remedy when it comes to massive wealth concentration and particularly as it relates to companies that are valued at least partially on the basis of not paying full freight for their labor.

But yeah, I'm not offering a solution. I understand that you're into the idea of UBI. I'm not necessarily opposed to the idea, I think it would be difficult to sell and I think that there would be a lot of practical difficulty in the same way that there is difficulty in simply "taxing the rich" or whatever. But maybe my main point (that I don't think I'm doing a particularly good job of explaining) is that, even if you are convinced that "it is their own fault for being poor" and that is enough for you to turn off any empathy or feel the need for any further concern, the problem doesn't cease to exist and it does have an effect on your life as a member of society. But yeah, I don't know what the solution is.

I also do lend some credence to the idea of not losing it over whatever bogeyman around the corner. However, we have seen and are seeing the what happens with the loss of blue collar jobs in America, and the same people that rub their thumbs under the suspender straps and feel smart and wise about keeping their cool while all the nancyboys are running around like women worrying about things have brought you "COVID is just the flu" and "global warming isn't reall!" so maybe roll back and think about if it is in fact true that every concerning thing on the horizon is no big deal and the free market is going to sort it out.

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

Thanks for clarifying, I was wondering if I was missing the rough draft of a solution or not.

Vilifying people seems to me to be a horrible idea. It's a bad idea to "other" people generally, but an equally bad idea to vilify the poor (and the rich). To the point of this thread, though, I almost wonder if we have crossed the threshold into a world where a working class revolt and impactful pushback is not possible. The disparity and the degree of separation from the, let's say top 5-10% and the bottom 90-95% seems to be too big a chasm to span-- the disparity in warfare resources, weaponry, food, geopolitical relationships, policies, etc. 

The biggest thing that would make the U.S. crumble in our lifetimes is if the 90% of our poor were suckered into selling their souls to China or Russia and we take their weapons and help and support and provide them the boots on the streets to wage their war under the guise of sharing in the spoils (only to create a worse problem, IMO). That is borderline fan-fic alt-history livejournaling there, but it's the only route I can see from my vantage point.

That's the problem with vantage points and perspectives though, right? We only can really own our own.

Edited December 13, 2021 by MonkeyCigarette

[shadow_operative 15931]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:47 PM, Hate said:

Jesus Christ. Of course the Gen Z’ers don’t have much hope. They have to listen to all of the goddamn ledge sitters like the ones on Surly. There has never been a better age to be alive than the one in which we currently live. Stop being a bunch of fucking Debbie downers and enjoy it.

 

On 12/11/2021 at 4:37 PM, Harrison Bergeron said:

This 1000%. Our idea of "have nots" is hilarious not only compared to the rest of the world but compared to history. The poorest Americans are still global 1%ers. But you're right, we're addicted to whining because we do not have any real, existential threats. That does not mean there will not be some sort of economic collapse if we keep blowing out our deficits and other terrible governmental policies. I do not see a collapse as much as there could be some self-induced fundamental shifts that continues us on the road to Idiocracy, where half the population gets a UBI check and watches Instagram and plays video games all day. I do not think a revolution is really possible - the gap between the U.S. military's capabilities and a revolutionary force is just too great. That doesn't mean we don't ultimately lose a war to China someday.

 

you guys live in a totally different world than i do, but congrats on having such easy, fulfilling lives, to the point where you can incredulously scoff at the idea of anyone in America being unhappy. i'm sure all of the black people born in Louisiana and Mississippi feel the same way you two do. same goes for every mentally ill kid who kills themselves at age 12 or 13, in large part due to our abject lack of medical care or even basic humanity for the mentally ill. all of the blue collar folks who can't afford an education who get injured working some shit job, then get addicted to opiates, then get cut off from their supply only to  become heroin addicts. All of the homeless people, all of the Mexican immigrants working jobs that you guys deem to be beneath you, all of the innocent people/non violent drug offenders spending their lives in our deplorably inhumane for-profit prisons. all of the kids getting shot to death at their schools on a regular basis. yeah, life is just so fucking easy and awesome for everyone. what a time to be alive!

🙄🙄🙄

Edited December 13, 2021 by shadow_operative

[shadow_operative 15931]

On 12/11/2021 at 6:49 PM, HRSchenker said:

We're living in the best period of American history. Right now is the best time to crank out some children. 

this is factually incorrect, and the idea that anyone could believe this baffles me. seemingly everyone in my parents generation just got an education, got some $30,000/yr job, went and bought a house or some property, and happily and easily raised 2, 3, 4, 5 kids, all while being able to take vacations and shit. you think that NOW is a better time in America? where i live, and for the people i know, right now is literally the worst America has ever been in our lifetimes. economic crises, a global pandemic, completely unaffordable housing, education and healthcare, a country divided by the two party system, with everyone in washington DC completely unable to work together, and you say this is yhe best time to ever be an American? tell me you're a 1%er without telling me you're a 1%er.

[Trey3216 15325]

On 12/12/2021 at 2:33 AM, atomheartbevo said:

I've been watching old Johnny Carson shows, and even with guests like Buddy Hackett, you'd still get some intelligent discourse, and most of the guests, if the topic came up, could discuss a variety of issues, whether local, national, or international, and even if they'd cracked jokes, the jokes showed that they were aware of/had thought about those issues.

But that also makes me wonder, and I wonder if it somewhat ties into your comments about Buckley and Cavett and their guests, if it's because those generations had been around during the Depression, WWII and/or the 50s.  Well, Cavett was born in '38 (didn't realize he was still alive), and Ali was born in '42, but they both came of age at a time when world affairs dominated the newspapers and TV shows, and you couldn't help but beware of the bigger things going on.  People were concerned about world affairs.  We had 16 million military veterans after WWII, and many, even if they hadn't been overseas, had paid close attention.

The airwaves, magazines, etc. also, as you and @TwiceHorn pointed out, were not flooded with stupid non-news shit like what too many people get wrapped up in these days, whether it's social influencers just dumb celebrity shit.

It's not that the trashy non-news stuff didn't exist or wasn't in the magazines or whatever, but you had to actively seek it out back then, and you typically paid money for it (tabloids and the like).  Plus, a lot of celebrities back then had handlers and managers that cultivated a certain image, and you didn't see them doing stupid shit and reveling in it, and feeding off of an adoring public who encouraged them to do more stupid shit, and normalizing it for that adoring public.

I've got a friend who makes the argument that just as Rome suffered from internal decay, that we are as well, that we've turned inward and are too obsessed with ourselves and I tend to agree that it's a huge issue.

Which is ironic, because we can get raw/unfiltered news and even live streaming of events happening around the country and the world within seconds, and we've got the world's informatino/knowledge at our fingertips these days.  We should be much better informed about a lot more stuff than we are, but the discourse is a problem or even non-existent.

Again, I don't think we are crumbling just yet, but I also don't think the direction we are headed is doing us any favors.   What happens when kids who grow up and get their news in 288 characters or a few dozen words that flash across the notification screen of their phone while they try to swipe it away are adults in their 30s/40s and have a hard time figuring out the news or who to trust?

 

 

One of the biggest parallels to Rome that I see with our nation currently is the time and monetary expenditure on entertainment in various forms.  The amount of money and time we spend on sports is mind-boggling.  One of the biggest downfalls of Rome was their citizens, at the behest of their powerbrokers, were offered an endless supply of entertainment distraction in order to keep their eyes off of the crumbling civil structure.  As long as we keep funding $100+mm coaches contracts with University Hospital dollars (Miami) and building millions upon millions of dollars worth of new facilities to house all of our distractions, and we keep falling for it, we'll never be able to devote the time and energy to figuring out why insulin costs too fucking much, why diabetes is the disease we need to attack rather than COVID, how lockdowns to "protect ourselves and others" only succeeded in setting 40million children back 1/2 a decade in their educational ability, how both sides of our 2 party monolith have absolutely wrecked any sense of common ground, how our media has completely jumped the shark in its ability to even modestly portray true problems in the country and acknowledge real solutions that have been brought to the table dozens of times to solve those problems, and on and on and on.  

[Trey3216 15325]

On 12/12/2021 at 8:25 AM, Neonmoon said:

I read a great book in college that I completely forgot the name of, about how the medium influences the message. It wasn’t McLuhan’s book, but it talked about his theories. I’m old so I read this before or at the same time of the invention of opinion news and 24/7 news. These mediums have fundamentally changed our world view. The same, even more so in my opinion, can be said for Twitter. The 24/7 news channel brought accessibility to news. Although, I don’t think “news” is the right word choice. Information is better. The 24/7 news channel provides accessibility to information. It could be good info, bad info, useless info etc. The opinion “news” shows changed the dynamic. It made news a show, infotainment indeed. Just a human expressing an opinion about a topic. 15 years later, Twitter introduces instant connection and speed. Now opinions regarding information  could be shared instantly with the world. The barriers of entry to have your opinions shared with the world were eradicated. Anyone could be magnified. Any opinion could become popular. Any information could be shared. 

Now, what do these mediums say about us as a society? Do these inventions strengthen our society? Do they hurt it? Will they be one more crack in the foundation or will they lead to advancements? Or both? I have no idea. And I don’t think anyone would truly know without a couple hundred years of hindsight. 

 

One of the greatest lessons we learned in Economics classes is about information.  Information, in its most basic sense is great, so long as it's pertinent information.  Access to all the information in the world, like we have right now, is making many, many people absolutely dumber because they can neither perceive whether the information is pertinent or not and they wouldn't know how to apply the information properly if it was.  Paralysis of analysis, correlation/causation are the too most common fallacies resulting from "information".  

[Brisketexan 104465]

More good stuff in here than I can read.

There will likely still be a country called the United States for a long time to come.  Not because this nation will actually survive.  But because the name, in this geographic location, will.

And many of our challenges are the same as other nations face, or will face -- soaring economic inequality, lack of opportunity to thrive, and the like.

But as for this Republic -- the thing we think of in the abstract, where people have rights, and a say in what happens across the board, has already ceased to exist.  We just haven't pronounced it dead yet.

I can't help but think of the scene in Force 10 from Navarone, after the allied saboteurs have set off the charges inside the nazi dam.   BOOM!....but nothing happens.  The American flips out -- "it didn't work!"  The Brit demo guy sits down, lights his pipe, and says "wait."  The charges cracked the dam.  The pressure did the rest.  A few minutes later, the cracks spread...the dam cracked some more, then gave way.

We are in the "see, it didn't work!" phase.  Nope.  The charges were set off.  January 6 is a good date to set for that event.  Now, we're just waiting for the irreparable cracks to lead to complete failure.

We have destroyed ourselves from within for the sake of transitory power, and there's no going back.  I believe that we've seen our last free and fair election, on a national scale.  Once that's gone, we're just another dysfunctional quasi-authoritarian state.  We may have some nifty cars and shit, because we still have a lot of wealth, but we won't ever be what we were.

[52-80 19066]

We should aspire to have enough trinket assembly plants to keep everyone perpetually employed, as if the raw labor wont be competed away by a few other billion people in the world. And if people are still anxious about crowding at the factory, we’ll just give them a plot of soil to farm. Thats how best to advance as a nation. Screw the innovation stuff

[TwiceHorn 31184]

4 hours ago, Celery Man said:

it's not free to have a huge population of people who can't scrape together enough to live, don't have any dignity in their work, don't have any optimism about the future,

Solid post, and this is probably the best part.  One of the truest, and least acknowledged statements that can be made.

The social costs of poverty (and inequality of all kinds) are tremendous.  Take incarceration nation, for just one example.

Edited December 13, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Trey3216 15325]

19 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

We should aspire to have enough trinket assembly plants to keep everyone perpetually employed, as if the raw labor wont be competed away by a few other billion people in the world. And if people are still anxious about crowding at the factory, we’ll just give them a plot of soil to farm. Thats how best to advance as a nation. Screw the innovation stuff

As long as the trinkets are Cardi B and Kim K trinkets, or name your favorite football team t-shirts, we'll be right fine.  

['stache 21743]

I think today is a turning point for our republic as we collectively and with complete unity recognize, praise, and acknowledge that Nancy Reagan was the Throat GOAT.

[wildcat09 29187]

2 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

 

you guys live in a totally different world than i do, but congrats on having such easy, fulfilling lives, to the point where you can incredulously scoff at the idea of anyone in America being unhappy. i'm sure all of the black people born in Louisiana and Mississippi feel the same way you two do. same goes for every mentally ill kid who kills themselves at age 12 or 13, in large part due to our abject lack of medical care or even basic humanity for the mentally ill. all of the blue collar folks who can't afford an education who get injured working some shit job, then get addicted to opiates, then get cut off from their supply only to  become heroin addicts. All of the homeless people, all of the Mexican immigrants working jobs that you guys deem to be beneath you, all of the innocent people/non violent drug offenders spending their lives in our deplorably inhumane for-profit prisons. all of the kids getting shot to death at their schools on a regular basis. yeah, life is just so fucking easy and awesome for everyone. what a time to be alive!

🙄🙄🙄

Yeah, it's pretty easy to spot the people who've never worked a real job a single day in their lives.

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

2 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

 

you guys live in a totally different world than i do, but congrats on having such easy, fulfilling lives, to the point where you can incredulously scoff at the idea of anyone in America being unhappy. i'm sure all of the black people born in Louisiana and Mississippi feel the same way you two do. same goes for every mentally ill kid who kills themselves at age 12 or 13, in large part due to our abject lack of medical care or even basic humanity for the mentally ill. all of the blue collar folks who can't afford an education who get injured working some shit job, then get addicted to opiates, then get cut off from their supply only to  become heroin addicts. All of the homeless people, all of the Mexican immigrants working jobs that you guys deem to be beneath you, all of the innocent people/non violent drug offenders spending their lives in our deplorably inhumane for-profit prisons. all of the kids getting shot to death at their schools on a regular basis. yeah, life is just so fucking easy and awesome for everyone. what a time to be alive!

🙄🙄🙄

Just as easy and just as hard as it’s always been.

What we got ain’t nothing new. This country’s always been hard on people. It ain’t all waiting on you. That’s vanity 

[El Diablo 4232]

3 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

this is factually incorrect, and the idea that anyone could believe this baffles me. seemingly everyone in my parents generation just got an education, got some $30,000/yr job, went and bought a house or some property, and happily and easily raised 2, 3, 4, 5 kids, all while being able to take vacations and shit. you think that NOW is a better time in America? where i live, and for the people i know, right now is literally the worst America has ever been in our lifetimes. economic crises, a global pandemic, completely unaffordable housing, education and healthcare, a country divided by the two party system, with everyone in washington DC completely unable to work together, and you say this is yhe best time to ever be an American? tell me you're a 1%er without telling me you're a 1%er.

Did your parents get and keep the same job? Stable employment solves a lot of the issues that arise during a lifetime.

Find a legal immigrant who is roughly your own age and follow them for the next 30 years. This is the best US they've ever know so it should be interesting. Report back. 

 

Oh, my prediction on the fall of the US? The South will rise again! Mine eyes have seen the Glory!! 

[workswithseed 2033]

2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah, it's pretty easy to spot the people who've never worked a real job a single day in their lives.

What would you consider a real job?

[Celery Man 20874]

34 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Did your parents get and keep the same job? Stable employment solves a lot of the issues that arise during a lifetime.

Intending no comment other than a true fact, companies rewarding long term employees with compensation commensurate with their industry peers (and consideration when cuts are made) is not a thing in this century. My dad worked for the same company his whole career, now that is a great way to make sure you spend your career not getting paid.

[MonkeyCigarette 143]

1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

Intending no comment other than a true fact, companies rewarding long term employees with compensation commensurate with their industry peers (and consideration when cuts are made) is not a thing in this century. My dad worked for the same company his whole career, now that is a great way to make sure you spend your career not getting paid.

Since we are trading anecdotes; I know a guy who we would all consider a moron, just not very smart and socially able, did a lot of drugs after Vietnam and just was never going to be middle management, if you get my drift.

He’s retired on pension after 25 years of delivering pizzas for Domino’s.

Those things still exists in pockets and unions and union jobs are making a comeback, not only for tradesman but for Amazon hourlies and Starbucks baristas. Maybe that’s a path for some of these folks.

[TwiceHorn 31184]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

One of the biggest parallels to Rome that I see with our nation currently is the time and monetary expenditure on entertainment in various forms.  The amount of money and time we spend on sports is mind-boggling.  One of the biggest downfalls of Rome was their citizens, at the behest of their powerbrokers, were offered an endless supply of entertainment distraction in order to keep their eyes off of the crumbling civil structure.  As long as we keep funding $100+mm coaches contracts with University Hospital dollars (Miami) and building millions upon millions of dollars worth of new facilities to house all of our distractions, and we keep falling for it, we'll never be able to devote the time and energy to figuring out why insulin costs too fucking much, why diabetes is the disease we need to attack rather than COVID, how lockdowns to "protect ourselves and others" only succeeded in setting 40million children back 1/2 a decade in their educational ability, how both sides of our 2 party monolith have absolutely wrecked any sense of common ground, how our media has completely jumped the shark in its ability to even modestly portray true problems in the country and acknowledge real solutions that have been brought to the table dozens of times to solve those problems, and on and on and on.  

This has bothered me for some time.

I don't think it's a dark plot by dark forces, yet.  But it's a problem.  And the inanity of much of the entertainment is astonishing.

Kind of went off the rails there on the covid bit, though.

[Neonmoon 38127]

4 hours ago, 'stache said:

I think today is a turning point for our republic as we collectively and with complete unity recognize, praise, and acknowledge that Nancy Reagan was the Throat GOAT.

Did I miss the memo about Nancy Reagan being a deepthroat legend?

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

This has bothered me for some time.

I don't think it's a dark plot by dark forces, yet.  But it's a problem.  And the inanity of much of the entertainment is astonishing.

Kind of went off the rails there on the covid bit, though.

The Covid bit was an anecdote on how we hyper focus on things that in the long run are not things.  We’re staring at the trees when the forest is what kills us.   Keep the kids safe!!!!! But don’t fucking worry about their education!!!!   We’ve got states waiving  2 years worth of test scores for advancement.  2 years worth of education loss literally sets a kids mind 5 years behind.   This generation of school age kids are absolutely turbo-fucked on the whole.   Some will still be fine, but we’ve engineered a problem astronomically larger than was the problem we tried to solve.  

[F250 28659]

[HRSchenker 2257]

5 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

this is factually incorrect, and the idea that anyone could believe this baffles me. seemingly everyone in my parents generation just got an education, got some $30,000/yr job, went and bought a house or some property, and happily and easily raised 2, 3, 4, 5 kids, all while being able to take vacations and shit. you think that NOW is a better time in America? where i live, and for the people i know, right now is literally the worst America has ever been in our lifetimes. economic crises, a global pandemic, completely unaffordable housing, education and healthcare, a country divided by the two party system, with everyone in washington DC completely unable to work together, and you say this is yhe best time to ever be an American? tell me you're a 1%er without telling me you're a 1%er.

Bless your heart. 

[Celery Man 20874]

The problem is the school is staffed with adults who aren’t really paid to risk their lives in the multitude of ways we ask that from them. Probably the best way to protect the kids would have been to be adults ourselves starting last (shit, last last) March but that ship sailed.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Celery Man

[fattyflattie 4636]

5 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

this is factually incorrect, and the idea that anyone could believe this baffles me. seemingly everyone in my parents generation just got an education, got some $30,000/yr job, went and bought a house or some property, and happily and easily raised 2, 3, 4, 5 kids, all while being able to take vacations and shit.

Tell me what class you grew up in without telling me. Seemingly everyone got an education?  I’m assuming you aren’t talking about an education in being drafted to fight Charlie. Care to expound on what kind of sweet interest rates they were paying on those houses in their 30’s, mid-80’s? If you were traveling anywhere but to see the grandparents then you were doing pretty ok.