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Joe Biden 2022: Enter Dark Brandon

Longboard Horn

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Homercles

Homercles 10,206

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

My take is that no one needs to school you on inflation -- you need to school others on it.

Your take is precisely what I think is going on. Add in that the Fed was slow to raise rates (really only started 4-5 months ago) and you have the current situation. 

Thanks.  I don’t follow too closely but read enough about airlines/tech to extrapolate the broader picture, I guess.  
 

If it’s a generally global issue that no one has silver-bullet solved then I’m not going to lay blame directly on the government, no matter who is in charge…but excessive PPP loans with no oversight/repayment, exec pressure on the fed to depress rates for years, or current admin not raising rates earlier are things I don’t approve of.  

Crowing about student loan forgiveness seems stupid as fuck (but not unexpected) when I’m still bitter about the ‘middle class’ tax break…it even benefited me a little, but seemed to mostly help the Fortune 500 during a boom time that should have padded the coffers for the inevitable bear.  

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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14 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So let me get this straight: the Fed distributed cash to some of America's largest banks for years while the Trump administration cut taxes for the rich and handed out the first round of checks for COVID relief, but inflation is Joe Biden's fault because he continued said relief and supplemented it with an infrastructure bill and a partial student loan forgiveness program that doesn't even apply to all borrowers. Do I have that right?

 

No.

 

90% of the time when a CR response starts with so… it’s filled with assumptions or hallucinations or what somebody said. 
 

Did I say it was his fault? I was asked what policies or principles I had that would curb inflation. I offered some recent examples.

Heavy deficit spending is inflationary. Both sides do it. This has been coming for a while. If it had to go one way i would prefer tax cuts over increased spending because it’s people or corporations keeping their money and not the government misallocating or wasting it. 
 

Another key difference between tax cuts in Trump term and the measures I listed is that Biden’s measures have been pursued against the backdrop of already elevated inflation. You would think it would cause people to tap the brakes. But no. 
 

As for the Fed, a decade plus of QE and Zirp policy was a disaster for our economy and has laid the groundwork for a lot of the social unrest, disorder and inflation we see today. Unless I’m mistaken no President on either side called for it to stop. They only cry with tightening policy. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34,322

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Did I say it was his fault? I was asked what policies or principles I had that would curb inflation. I offered some recent examples.

Heavy deficit spending is inflationary. Both sides do it. This has been coming for a while. If it had to go one way i would prefer tax cuts over increased spending because it’s people or corporations keeping their money and not the government misallocating or wasting it. 
 

Another key difference between tax cuts in Trump term and the measures I listed is that Biden’s measures have been pursued against the backdrop of already elevated inflation.

Quote

Not unilaterally granting inflationary student loan forgiveness. Not passing inflationary American Rescue Plan. Not passing inflationary Inflation Reduction Act. 

assuming that three examples you gave are the ones you are saying are "biden's measures" then that's a lie.  the only thing you listed that is anything other than a popcorn fart on inflation is the american rescue plan, which was signed into law the day after the february 2021 inflation report came in at 1.7% YoY. 

you're writing lies about easily disprovable things.  i don't know why y'all do that so much. 

 

Edited by elfenix
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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,924

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46 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

If it had to go one way i would prefer tax cuts over increased spending because it’s people or corporations keeping their money and not the government misallocating or wasting it. 

I wonder which group of Americans has benefited the most from this arrangement. Tough to tell. If only we had some sort of history to guide us.

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,980

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Posted
55 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

If only we had a President that is projected to decrease deficit spending by a trillion, we could get this global inflation under control

 

Yeah, but Trump would have done the same.

Note the budget deficit in the first 3 years of Trump's administration, and then for shits and giggles remember that he not only promised to eliminate the deficit but to eliminate the national debt:

The U.S. deficit hit $984 billion in 2019, soaring during Trump era - The Washington Post

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45,691

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

it’s filled with assumptions or hallucinations

 

2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

i would prefer tax cuts over increased spending because it’s people or corporations keeping their money and not the government misallocating or wasting it. 

Corporations don't misallocate or waste money?  Cool.

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, elfenix said:

assuming that three examples you gave are the ones you are saying are "biden's measures" then that's a lie.  the only thing you listed that is anything other than a popcorn fart on inflation is the american rescue plan, which was signed into law the day after the february 2021 inflation report came in at 1.7% YoY. 

you're writing lies about easily disprovable things.  i don't know why y'all do that so much. 

 

I’m sorry. You’re right. I was thinking of the build back better push in the summer of 21 when things were already heating up.

The other two I stand by. The inflation reduction act will be inflationary, as will student loan forgiveness.

 

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elfenix

elfenix 34,322

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I’m sorry. You’re right. I was thinking of the build back better push in the summer of 21 when things were already heating up.

The other two I stand by. The inflation reduction act will be inflationary, as will student loan forgiveness.

 

the first is just your assumption, and the second is a popcorn fart. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,924

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I’m sorry. You’re right. I was thinking of the build back better push in the summer of 21 when things were already heating up.

The other two I stand by. The inflation reduction act will be inflationary, as will student loan forgiveness.

I wonder if decreased revenue during the pandemic has anything to do with it.

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Js1

Js1 85,426

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why is student loan forgiveness inflationary?  It's not like the government is cutting $10k checks to these people.  It's just money they don't have to pay back.  They aren't all $10k richer one day.  Unless I've completely misunderstood something.

You haven’t. GRUHorn’s new account is lying as usual 

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elfenix

elfenix 34,322

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why is student loan forgiveness inflationary?  It's not like the government is cutting $10k checks to these people.  It's just money they don't have to pay back.  They aren't all $10k richer one day.  Unless I've completely misunderstood something.

the forgiveness has a cost associated with it (the government not collecting as much in monthly payments) on average of $30 billion a year over the next decade.  guessing that's frontloaded.  to the extent that any deficit-inducing policy is inflationary, it's inflationary.  and probably somewhat moreso because a lot of the relief is going to normal people rather than top couple-few percenters.  but, again, popcorn fart. 

there's other costs on top of that which are less knowable due to the new IBR rules and more-usable public/charitable job forgiveness as well. 

in an ideal world i guess nancy "pay-for" pelosi would have passed some new law restructuring student loans but he'd bitch about that too. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,980

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why is student loan forgiveness inflationary?  It's not like the government is cutting $10k checks to these people.  It's just money they don't have to pay back.  They aren't all $10k richer one day.  Unless I've completely misunderstood something.

No, you haven't misunderstood anything.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,625

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Homercles said:

Can someone school me better on inflation?  Obviously the Party Of No gang will point fingers at recent legislation meant to help people and do some legit investing…but I thought the main drivers were a surge in demand following Covid relaxations, compounded via slower recovery on the supply side (particularly long lead items), and aggravated by excessive monetary policy (artificially low rates, relief spending, etc).  


What am I missing?  There was a lot of pressure to keep prime rates low, ‘Dow 25k’ hats, dumbass ‘middle class’ tax break and the poorly-managed loan program in the US…but it’s a global problem.  Airlines are a perfect example, canceling flights due to lack of equipment and crews, contracting too far too fast in the interests of short term financial performance + assuming Covid lockdowns / demand suppression would last far longer.  
 

Rates needed to be raised while the supply-side catches back up and cool demand a bit.  It’s gonna suck, for awhile.  Maybe super-lean manuf chasing low overhead isn’t optimal for all industries.  Throw in climate change.  
 

There’s no easy answers, right?  Not shocked the usual suspects blame Biden when it seems these seeds were sown ages ago.  It’s an outrage no matter what a Dem admin does or doesn’t do.  Seems this shit always follows a ‘low taxes, no regulation’ admin.  

I am not qualified to school anyone but given the global nature of inflation it seems pretty clear that US economic/fiscal policy is not the only (or even leading) cause.  Sure, loose spending and tax cuts over the last 2 decades are contributing factors, but it looks pretty clear to me that the pandemic and subsequent war in Ukraine are still having a major impact on supply.  The questions relevant to this thread are:

How much of the inflation is Biden’s fault?  Some, but only a fraction.  Biden didn’t cause the pandemic which led to global supply chain issues that still haven’t fully resolved.  He didn’t cause the Russian invasion of Ukraine that led to supply shocks in food and gas.  Yes, Biden has spent, and I personally wish he hadn’t signed that stimulus in 2021.  But that represents only a fraction of the money supply.  The Bush/Trump tax cuts and the Obama/Trump stimulus packages dwarf the amount of money released during Bidens term.  Of the 8.3 YoY cpi increase for August, my guess is Biden’s spending has contributed less than 2% of that 8.3%.

 

What can Biden do to combat inflation?  The Fed is raising rates to combat the inflation caused by increased money supply, but technically Biden doesn’t control that.  Biden has made several key moves to battle inflation with pretty clear positive results.  Releasing oil supply helped tame gas prices.  The Inflation Reduction Act will likely lower overall inflation impacts for middle and lower class Americans.  There are several other things I’d like to see him accomplish: work with the Saudis to increase their supply, work to resolve the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and work to assist China in resolving their supply chain issues.  Obviously avoiding more supply shocks (eg railroad strikes) is also important.

I personally think an underrated aspect of this inflationary period is demographic trends.  Boomers are aging out of the workforce and there aren’t enough workers to replace them.  I am not sure if addressing that issue via immigration is politically feasible at this time, but medium and long term something will have to be done there.

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8,751

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, but Trump would have done the same.

Note the budget deficit in the first 3 years of Trump's administration, and then for shits and giggles remember that he not only promised to eliminate the deficit but to eliminate the national debt:

The U.S. deficit hit $984 billion in 2019, soaring during Trump era - The Washington Post

Man, I think we are seeing a trend here. Or am I wrong?

 

fiscaldeficit_001.jpg

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7,780

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On 9/6/2022 at 11:35 AM, Incredulity said:

Fuck you and your purity test.

 

Clear enough?

Purity test?  Dude.  If you can't even admit Trump attempted a coup, you're too far gone.  Just do us all a favor and take yourself out.  For the good of the gene pool.

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Humble Beast

Humble Beast 258

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Posted
7 hours ago, elfenix said:

the forgiveness has a cost associated with it (the government not collecting as much in monthly payments) on average of $30 billion a year over the next decade.  guessing that's frontloaded.  to the extent that any deficit-inducing policy is inflationary, it's inflationary.  and probably somewhat moreso because a lot of the relief is going to normal people rather than top couple-few percenters.  but, again, popcorn fart. 

there's other costs on top of that which are less knowable due to the new IBR rules and more-usable public/charitable job forgiveness as well. 

in an ideal world i guess nancy "pay-for" pelosi would have passed some new law restructuring student loans but he'd bitch about that too. 

 

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why is student loan forgiveness inflationary?  It's not like the government is cutting $10k checks to these people.  It's just money they don't have to pay back.  They aren't all $10k richer one day.  Unless I've completely misunderstood something.

 

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

No, you haven't misunderstood anything.

From what I’ve seen it’s at least a $500B write off from the Federal Government. As larger deficits have to be financed then more debt has to be issued. Who buys that? Well I hate to tell you but all roads lead to increasing US debt monetization via the Fed. That’s a discussion for the kindergarten thread though.  Anything that accelerates that process is inflationary. 
 

As far as how else it adds to inflation more, if you’re removing $10k in debt from personal balance sheets then you remove debt overhangs on consumption.  
 

Also, POTUS explained if you remove that debt overhang from people then more people can start their own businesses etc. How does that happen? Those people go get new loans or better terms now that their balance sheets are improved. That’s literally money creation.

I’m not saying it’s a massive effect, but again someone asked how you would curb inflation and I explained. Student loan forgiveness will boost inflation. Anything that artificially juices demand (consumption) does that. 

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13,253

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

 

 

From what I’ve seen it’s at least a $500B write off from the Federal Government. As larger deficits have to be financed then more debt has to be issued. Who buys that? Well I hate to tell you but all roads lead to increasing US debt monetization via the Fed. That’s a discussion for the kindergarten thread though.  Anything that accelerates that process is inflationary. 
 

As far as how else it adds to inflation more, if you’re removing $10k in debt from personal balance sheets then you remove debt overhangs on consumption.  
 

Also, POTUS explained if you remove that debt overhang from people then more people can start their own businesses etc. How does that happen? Those people go get new loans or better terms now that their balance sheets are improved. That’s literally money creation.

I’m not saying it’s a massive effect, but again someone asked how you would curb inflation and I explained. Student loan forgiveness will boost inflation. Anything that artificially juices demand (consumption) does that. 

Maybe we should increase taxes on corps and high earners and high wealth individuals so we can balance out this inflationary impact from student loan forgiveness.

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staboner

staboner 4,984

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Posted

Ridiculously large, and ever growing student loans that are either unpaid or later forgiven have created artificial pricing in the market for education. The act of forgiveness in and of itself isn't causing inflation, but thats really missing the point. We are paying for our sins of the last 20 years and there is much more to get past.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11,141

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Posted

Pretty soon, we are gonna see Republicans accusing Biden and the Dems of creating fake problems so he can solve them and appear competent. 

"THERE WAS NO TRAIN STRIKE IMMINENT, THEY HAD A DEAL MADE WEEKS AGO AND LET IT LINGER SO THEY COULD APPEAR TO FIX THE PROBLEM THAT THEY CREATED1!111!!"

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26,453

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14 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Pretty soon, we are gonna see Republicans accusing Biden and the Dems of creating fake problems so he can solve them and appear competent. 

"THERE WAS NO TRAIN STRIKE IMMINENT, THEY HAD A DEAL MADE WEEKS AGO AND LET IT LINGER SO THEY COULD APPEAR TO FIX THE PROBLEM THAT THEY CREATED1!111!!"

Do you sometimes adopt a Yosemite Sam voice, and call in to my local right-wing radio station?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Posted
2 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Pretty soon, we are gonna see Republicans accusing Biden and the Dems of creating fake problems so he can solve them and appear competent. 

"THERE WAS NO TRAIN STRIKE IMMINENT, THEY HAD A DEAL MADE WEEKS AGO AND LET IT LINGER SO THEY COULD APPEAR TO FIX THE PROBLEM THAT THEY CREATED1!111!!"

The same idiots would be praising Trump and saying that he was playing “4D chess” if he did the same thing. 

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23,114

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https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/texas-gas-prices-drop-1-50-in-3-months-how-have-they-changed-in-your-city/

AUSTIN (KXAN) — Thursday marks exactly three months since gas prices hit their peak in Texas.

On June 15, 2022, a gallon of regular unleaded gas cost an average of $4.70 across the state.

As of Thursday, the statewide average is down to $3.18, a decrease of $1.52 in three months.

 

 

il_1588xN.3312159847_gz9i.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

 

magat dipshits sure aren't saying that shit now. 

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