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Joe Biden 2022: Enter Dark Brandon


Longboard Horn

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9 hours ago, PTINS said:

image.png.3e3d9b19cdcbbc7fa17e595155f7742c.png

Call it what you will, but the market cap of the just the FAANG stocks has risen almost $3 Trillion in ~ 20 years.

A significant portion of that value increase is shared by the majority of pension funds, 401k's, and numerous individuals who have chosen to invest in these particular stocks.

Those "obscene corporate profits" have resulted in a proportionate increase in stock value, meaning each individual investor has realized a proportionate increase in their investments.

One share of Apple in 2006 was ~ $35/share, and has split 7 for 1 in 2014 and 4 for 1 in 2020, giving you 28 shares from your original 1 share. Your $35 original investment in 2006 is worth over $4,000 today.

Perhaps characterizing a 100 fold increase in value as a trickle is not the correct term.

None of this benefits the average American worker.

Pensioners and individual investors like yourself can eat my whole ass. I don't give a single iota of a fuck about your how your stock portfolio is performing, and neither does anyone else in here. Go fuck yourself in the face.

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9 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Plus, they donate almost exclusively to the preferred party.  So posting profit margins that make O&G majors blush is completely fine.  No gouge, no mention, no problem.  

Not true -- Meta, Amazon, Google....all of them have donated a crapload to GQP candidates.  Google and Meta even donated big chunks to a GQP organization that has pushed for (and obtained) numerous voter suppression laws.

They're corporate whores, just like the rest of them.  But when it comes to them making a profit, they're gods of capitalism and freedom.  Yet when it comes to them having the freedom to decide what's disseminated on their platform, that they own....well, they need some good old fashioned government control.  Gotta love the GQP and its vision of "freedom" - it means absolute unfettered freedom when it comes to fucking people over, but when it comes to the choice to NOT engage in fuckery, well, NO FREEDOM FOR YOU!

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We aren't going to make any progress at all until we get over the "tribe" mentality.   John Lennon had it right about that.  Jews, Muslims, Ukrainians, Russians, Comanches etc.  The only hopeful sign I've seen in my lifetime is the ability of numerous nations to come to the defense of a country that has been invaded and provide for some freedom.  Problem is here at home, people don't seem to understand what the fuck "freedom" means.   It's not oppressing anyone opposed to your views.

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10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They're corporate whores, just like the rest of them.  But when it comes to them making a profit, they're gods of capitalism and freedom.

As they should be.  But if the POTUS is going to publicly demonize XOM and CVX for their profits, they should at least get an honorable mention. Especially since they have done far and away better during the same timeframe.  But that’s not the correct boogeyman.  So is it about companies and their extreme profit taking? 

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15 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

We aren't going to make any progress at all until we get over the "tribe" mentality.   John Lennon had it right about that.  Jews, Muslims, Ukrainians, Russians, Comanches etc.  The only hopeful sign I've seen in my lifetime is the ability of numerous nations to come to the defense of a country that has been invaded and provide for some freedom.  Problem is here at home, people don't seem to understand what the fuck "freedom" means.   It's not oppressing anyone opposed to your views.

pretty sure history disagrees with you. the politics of this country have always been about oppressing one segment of the population or another. they're just going with what they know

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14 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

As they should be.  But if the POTUS is going to publicly demonize XOM and CVX for their profits, they should at least get an honorable mention. Especially since they have done far and away better during the same timeframe.  But that’s not the correct boogeyman.  So is it about companies and their extreme profit taking? 

It is indeed more specifically about 1) extreme profits taken by companies that 2) are directly charging consumers for a commodity.

Don't be daft.  Everyone in the country is groaning about high gasoline prices.....which are being charged at the same time that the producers of that commodity are getting record profits.

Nobody is complaining about "the high cost of Facebook."  None of your buddies put stickers of Biden on their computer screen to point to the FB icon saying "I did that!"  High gas prices combined with high profits of the oil companies....yeah, there's a pretty direct connection there.

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56 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

As they should be.  But if the POTUS is going to publicly demonize XOM and CVX for their profits, they should at least get an honorable mention. Especially since they have done far and away better during the same timeframe.  But that’s not the correct boogeyman.  So is it about companies and their extreme profit taking? 

Yes. The GOP is on TV every night telling Americans that all Dems should be voted out because the cost of Facebook and Twitter is too high. Oh wait, that's gas.

Of course he's going to respond when your parties #2 issue (behind punishing gays and women) is gas prices.

I know you claim to be an adult, but sometimes it's hard to take that at face value given your takes.

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is trickle down the new russian bot talking point? like, where the fuck did that come from? even the R's quietly abandoned that as a talking point years ago as it shone a light on the fact that it was working - in the opposite way it was advertised. Good for them, bad for us.

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15 hours ago, PTINS said:

 

I'll play. First post on CR, I think, and I only read the last 3 pages...

What happened in 2000?

I used to think that Y2K was the reason for so many ills in our economy in that it gave the IT community access to the highest levels of corporate America. Over time, I realized that innovation and riding the tech wave increased our efficiency in damn near everything, resulting in much higher productivity and ultimately, corporate profits.

I never saw the cost/benefit of paying 4X for an Apple computer over a Microsoft based clone. Still don't.  I took my high school age son shopping at the Apple store in 2006, and was overwhelmed by so many happy people who couldn't wait to tell me about their great products. Didn't buy anything that day, but I bought Apple stock the next day. Ding, Ding, Ding!!! WINNER!!!

Over the last 10-15 years, I migrated from investing in Oil & Gas (my profession) to high tech ($$$).  Apple was making train loads of cash with iphones (no risk) v. O&G, which is arguably the highest risk profession there is. Taking Oil & Gas, boosting it to high pressure, and putting a fire under is the definition of risk. 

Fast forward, and over time, my salary, the "Labor Share" on the graph, was secondary to my investment earnings (savings, 401k, IRA, Roth, etc.), the "Profit Share" on the graph. That statement probably holds true for everyone who is not dependent on a government paycheck. Every pension fund, not government related, his heavily invested in the stock market, and every contributor to every pension fund is by definition,  invested in the stock market.

Corporate Profits are not a bad thing. Those profits trickle down to individual investors and pension funds, who pay their share of taxes.  

So, the solution is call the Tech company management before congress, and ultimately, kill the geese that were laying golden eggs. Well done.

Re: stimulus checks.

Lets see, Covid disrupts everything, people can't/don't work, supply chain issues, same amount of people chasing fewer goods and services, supply and demand fundamentals go to work, and prices start rising. 

Some people, those forced out of the workplace, needed help. I get that.

But a lot (most?) of people didn't, they were able to work remotely. But everyone got a check, whether they needed it or not.

Inject Trillions of $$$ into a supply challenged economy, and now we have a whole lot more money chasing good and services that were already in high demand, superheating the economy, and inflation explodes.

Combining those two events, crushed profit margins and out of control inflation, and we went from our best economy ever to dogshit in a few short years.  I got a few $ from my stimulus checks in return for my life's savings getting crushed.  Whoppee shit!

I think that applies to most of America. 

in lieu of brian fantana's eloquent advice, i think some time reading about the lorenz curve and the gini coefficient would be a good idea for you...then you should review the historical trends of both of those in the united states...particularly beginning in 1980 when the almighty god of supply-side economics became the national ethos.  if you don't want to wade through piketty's "capital," here is something a bit more consumable.

https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

i am not sure why you believe posting historical equity returns on some of the most aggressive stocks of the last 20 years is particularly helpful to the discussion of macroeconomic trends of income, inflation, or corporate rent seeking.

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11 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Plus, they donate almost exclusively to the preferred party.  So posting profit margins that make O&G majors blush is completely fine.  No gouge, no mention, no problem.  

some of these (google, facebook) are not consumer revenue models so they have zero impact on the population at large but instead are a free service to most based on the alternative revenue model.

some (oracle, microsoft, sap) are enterprise revenue models and thus, are felt at a corporate level and not a population at large consumer level.

some (apple, netflix) are consumer revenue models but they are highly discretionary, luxury goods with significant, often lower priced competition.

that's not a defense of those industries, it is just a rationalization as to why they are not used as political footballs.

o&g is a commodity that is the primary input for global energy demand and felt by everyone and thus, it is a useful political football.  similar to food.  however, to be clear, both parties' use of o&g pricing as political in either direction (reps pointing to who happens to be in office when prices spike due to market forces or dems claiming outrageous profiteering by o&g companies who simply participate in the market place in both ups and downs) is equally idiotic.  there are minor u.s. political elements at the margins of the overall marketplace, but they are largely inconsequential.

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13 minutes ago, sidis said:

some of these (google, facebook) are not consumer revenue models so they have zero impact on the population at large but instead are a free service to most based on the alternative revenue model.

some (oracle, microsoft, sap) are enterprise revenue models and thus, are felt at a corporate level and not a population at large consumer level.

some (apple, netflix) are consumer revenue models but they are highly discretionary, luxury goods with significant, often lower priced competition.

that's not a defense of those industries, it is just a rationalization as to why they are not used as political footballs.

o&g is a commodity that is the primary input for global energy demand and felt by everyone and thus, it is a useful political football.  similar to food.  however, to be clear, both parties' use of o&g pricing as political in either direction (reps pointing to who happens to be in office when prices spike due to market forces or dems claiming outrageous profiteering by o&g companies who simply participate in the market place in both ups and downs) is equally idiotic.  there are minor u.s. political elements at the margins of the overall marketplace, but they are largely inconsequential.

Rep to you for this cogent explanation. I don't think I will ever quite understand folks who simplify a Presidency down to economy bad = bad President. Economy good/bad = political opportunity for Presidents/Opponents I get.

 

 

 

Has anyone else lately felt like this Joe Biden thread was heading to Lagos and we needed to step off for decontamination? Anyone?

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2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Some dude really busted out "trickle down" in 2022? When wealth inequity has never been higher? When the top 5% of Americans possess something like 90% of all money? Is this real life? Even the GOP knew enough to retire that phrase, right alongside "thoughts and prayers."

I still laugh at the people who vote gop who celebrate when the GOP passes a massive tax cut and they brag about having $50 dollars of their tax money returned to them for a tank of gas while the wealthy gop voter is saving something like $500,000 or even $5 million.

 

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1 hour ago, sidis said:

o&g is a commodity that is the primary input for global energy demand and felt by everyone and thus, it is a useful political football.  similar to food.  however, to be clear, both parties' use of o&g pricing as political in either direction (reps pointing to who happens to be in office when prices spike due to market forces or dems claiming outrageous profiteering by o&g companies who simply participate in the market place in both ups and downs) is equally idiotic.  there are minor u.s. political elements at the margins of the overall marketplace, but they are largely inconsequential.

Correct.  Can you please explain why the most important, and most powerful person in the entire world has in the last 60 days, blamed the pricing on individual operators (corner store)?    Or why instead of explaining it as simply as you did in 90 seconds, blamed the majors?   We expect you to not make profit (and let’s not mention the bad years)…because it’s bad for my side.  

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1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Correct.  Can you please explain why the most important, and most powerful person in the entire world has in the last 60 days, blamed the pricing on individual operators (corner store)?    Or why instead of explaining it as simply as you did in 90 seconds, blamed the majors?   We expect you to not make profit (and let’s not mention the bad years)…because it’s bad for my side.  

i'm glad you understand that.  it begs the question as to why you raised the tech issue in the first place but moving on...

the answer to your question is primarily political expedience.  it is a dumb football but it is an important one and the messaging has to appeal to a midterm voting base.  the dipshits from the right are blaming him for global market dynamics resulting from russian invasion of ukraine and opec putting the squeeze on but even relatively intelligent people that are politically motivated just brush that off with sarcasm drenched "putin price hike!!"  seemingly successfully.

that said, u.s. onshore and offshore has been pretty laggy with drilling activities given the price environment under the cliche header of "capital discipline."  it's understandable given 2014 to 2020 but activity has been slower than pricing dynamics would generally call for as many are concerned it won't last.  here is the rig count.  last time oil was as at current crude prices consistently was 2011 and natural gas hasn't sustained these types of prices since prior to the financial crisis.  yet, in 2011 and 2012 when the prices were comparable on crude and lower on natural gas, north american rig count was 3-4x what it is now.  see below.

1147197607_Screenshot2022-10-20134112.thumb.png.918dde03e775aa0b9e142b1c5c749c37.png

that implies a lot of...umm, "capital discipline."  while right wing dipshits bemoan a meaningless "anti-drilling rhetoric" from the dems, the fact of the matter is that plenty of drilling opportunities on fully leased up locations are available with economics justifying D&C at the forward strip but they simply aren't pursuing them. 

but again, to be clear, using "oil companies are hoarding windfall profits OMG!!!!" rhetoric from the left is hollow, meaningless nonsense spoken by people that don't understand risky, cyclical commodities prices in competitive marketplace dynamics and capital intensive industries like o&g.  it is the left's version of the countless cheap political taglines leveraged consistently by everyone on the right (e.g. SOCIALISM!!! DEATH PANELS!!! PEDOS!!! PIZZA PARLOURS!!! STOLEN ELECTION!!! RIGGED!!! and i could go on until the end of time unfortunately).  but if you are going to have republicans saying biden is a disaster because of the same lack of understanding of business cycle/competitive marketplace dynamics/emerging from global economic shutdown...then ya know.

Edited by sidis
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2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

 

god damn republicans really like to run deficits.  like an addiction to crack.

ronnie's bullshit at least made a little bit of sense given where he started from and that we hadn't truly run the experiment to achieve empirical results that led us to realize it would completely fail.  but stimulating an overheated economy from 2003-2007 and in 2017 with further supply-side stimulus was so unbelievably stupid.  so unbelievably stupid.

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1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Correct.  Can you please explain why the most important, and most powerful person in the entire world has in the last 60 days, blamed the pricing on individual operators (corner store)?    Or why instead of explaining it as simply as you did in 90 seconds, blamed the majors?   We expect you to not make profit (and let’s not mention the bad years)…because it’s bad for my side.  


Because the most important, most powerful person in the entire world knows that the man on the street is too dumb to handle a list of salient points that takes 90 seconds to listen to?  Or was this a rhetorical question?

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7 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

pretty sure history disagrees with you. the politics of this country have always been about oppressing one segment of the population or another. they're just going with what they know

That’s the politics of my forefathers, not me.   Yes I understand it’s easy for me to say that.  But here’s the thing, I can and will say that BECAUSE I can.  That’s what those motherfuckers died for.  

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On 10/20/2022 at 1:56 PM, sidis said:

that said, u.s. onshore and offshore has been pretty laggy with drilling activities given the price environment under the cliche header of "capital discipline."  it's understandable given 2014 to 2020 but activity has been slower than pricing dynamics would generally call for as many are concerned it won't last.  here is the rig count.  last time oil was as at current crude prices consistently was 2011 and natural gas hasn't sustained these types of prices since prior to the financial crisis.  yet, in 2011 and 2012 when the prices were comparable on crude and lower on natural gas, north american rig count was 3-4x what it is now.  see below.

Thank you for helping to spell that out.  Any thoughts as to why US o&g has suddenly become risk averse?  As I recall from the sidelines, the industry would historically spend like drunken sailors in a whorehouse whenever the value of a barrel of oil would climb significantly.  Now they're suddenly on the austerity play?

Edited by jimmyjazz
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13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thank you for helping to spell that out.  Any thoughts as to why US o&g has suddenly become risk averse?  As I recall from the sidelines, the industry would historically spend like drunken sailors in a whorehouse whenever the value of a barrel of oil would climb significantly.  Now they're suddenly on the austerity play?

it cannot be overstated how extraordinarily difficult 2014 - 2020 was on the industry. They were extremely hard times - even for majors and super majors regardless of the "not gonna cry for big o&g" sentiment.  tsunami of bankruptcies vertically from e&p, field services, midstream...all the way down to the bottom of the barrel with landmen.  leasing slows.  margins collapsed when pre-11/2014 hedges expired.  the velocity of the last two pricing collapses (9/2008 in the financial crisis and 11/2014 when opec declared cold war on russia and u.s. shale producers) were so incredibly fast. so the reluctance is understandable...fear that russia conflict resolves and the price plummets again is just one thing that keeps finance groups at o&g deciding whether or not to invest $10 billion in a project tomorrow up all night.  another total shutdown in china.  opec reversing course under political pressure. 

i have opinions on the short-term and long-term commodities pricing structures over the next decade but they are just opinions and i have the luxury of my prosperity being dependent on retroactive elements of the o&g markets and not prospective elements. if i actually knew, i would own every island in french polynesia by now and would be currently discussing philosophy with a bunch of italian supermodels drenched in cristal instead of typing this out.  i think the smart players are starting to get off their asses...but it is a capital intensive industry and while smaller players can be nimble and agile, larger players are like turning an aircraft carrier.

Edited by sidis
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On 10/20/2022 at 1:56 PM, sidis said:

i'm glad you understand that.  it begs the question as to why you raised the tech issue in the first place but moving on...

the answer to your question is primarily political expedience.  it is a dumb football but it is an important one and the messaging has to appeal to a midterm voting base.  the dipshits from the right are blaming him for global market dynamics resulting from russian invasion of ukraine and opec putting the squeeze on but even relatively intelligent people that are politically motivated just brush that off with sarcasm drenched "putin price hike!!"  seemingly successfully.

that said, u.s. onshore and offshore has been pretty laggy with drilling activities given the price environment under the cliche header of "capital discipline."  it's understandable given 2014 to 2020 but activity has been slower than pricing dynamics would generally call for as many are concerned it won't last.  here is the rig count.  last time oil was as at current crude prices consistently was 2011 and natural gas hasn't sustained these types of prices since prior to the financial crisis.  yet, in 2011 and 2012 when the prices were comparable on crude and lower on natural gas, north american rig count was 3-4x what it now.  see below.

1147197607_Screenshot2022-10-20134112.thumb.png.918dde03e775aa0b9e142b1c5c749c37.png

that implies a lot of...umm, "capital discipline."  while right wing dipshits bemoan a meaningless "anti-drilling rhetoric" from the dems, the fact of the matter is that plenty of drilling opportunities on fully leased up locations are available with economics justifying D&C at the forward strip but they simply aren't pursuing them. 

but again, to be clear, using "oil companies are hoarding windfall profits OMG!!!!" rhetoric from the left is hollow, meaningless nonsense spoken by people that don't understand risky, cyclical commodities prices in competitive marketplace dynamics and capital intensive industries like o&g.  it is the left's version of the countless cheap political taglines leveraged consistently by everyone on the right (e.g. SOCIALISM!!! DEATH PANELS!!! PEDOS!!! PIZZA PARLOURS!!! STOLEN ELECTION!!! RIGGED!!! and i could go on until the end of time unfortunately).  but if you are going to have republicans saying biden is a disaster because of the same lack of understanding of business cycle/competitive marketplace dynamics/emerging from global economic shutdown...then ya know.



What's somewhat interesting is that U.S. oil production, with roughly 30% of the rig count as 2014, is so much higher. At that end of 2014 we were producing 9.4 million barrels per day. We're at 12.0 million right now. We're producing much more than Saudi Arabia and much more than Russia, whose production I would assume has dropped in the wake of Ukraine. 






 

chart.png

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1 minute ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:



What's somewhat interesting is that U.S. oil production, with roughly 30% of the rig count as 2014, is so much higher. At that end of 2014 we were producing 9.4 million barrels per day. We're at 12.2 million right now. We're producing much more than Saudi Arabia and much more than Russia, whose production I would assume has dropped in the wake of Ukraine. 

 

the answer is horizontal drilling.  almost every well that has been drilled onshore since 2014 has been a 5,000 to 15,000 foot horizontal well.  much more production per hole in the ground which is what makes the economics of shale production work.  costs a hell of a lot more to drill one than a conventional vertical well (9-15 million vs. 500k-3 million) but will produce a lot longer and a lot more.  

but that's double edged.  say you decide to drill a $12 million well in 2013 in which you are valuing the reserves on a forward strip of $100 prices. it has good return economics on it at those prices so you drop $12M and drill it. then 2014 comes and you can't market it for more than $40.  now it is going to take 15 years to break even instead of 4.  that's why you see slow deployment of capital.

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I am not dialed in to the degree that I recall all those details.  I do recall the price plunge in spring 2020 when Russia/Saudi got in a tiff and covid hit, seemingly simultaneously.

russia/saudi real tiff was 11/2014.  global destruction of demand in 2020 was largely attributable to covid/shutdown.

here is a historical pricing chart for both crude and natural gas from 2000 forward.  you will see the precipitous drops at the financial crisis, 2014 (november for crude when opec announced it was opening the spigots), and covid.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.018ee3017bf454feb93067145d75b21e.jpg

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So we're at nearly all-time highs in US production volume, rig count is down 60% or more, and "gas prices are high because Joe Biden won't open the spigots".

High production volume and high gas prices don't really jibe, at least zero order.  Even if the problem is production volume, and even if producers weren't so risk averse, if they could snap their fingers and turn on theoretical spigots, could they actually do so?  Are those leases still available for drilling?

I get the fact that the infrastructure has been mothballed and the people have been laid off.  If people and equipment weren't the issue, is that land still available for drilling?

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

So we're at nearly all-time highs in US production volume, rig count is down 60% or more, and "gas prices are high because Joe Biden won't open the spigots".

High production volume and high gas prices don't really jibe, at least zero order.  Even if the problem is production volume, and even if producers weren't so risk averse, if they could snap their fingers and turn on theoretical spigots, could they actually do so?  Are those leases still available for drilling?

I get the fact that the infrastructure has been mothballed and the people have been laid off.  If people and equipment weren't the issue, is that land still available for drilling?

to be extremely clear, anyone that is blaming the price of gasoline on joe biden or joe biden's "policies" is either a) a complete and utter dipshit whose worldview is crafted for them by fox news; b) politically motivated asshole like your average rex kramer types; or c) completely ignorant of how global commodities markets actually work.

sorry, did not address your specific question...

yes, there are hundreds of thousands of leased acreage that has not been drilled because of the reluctance i described above.  drilling plans and schedules are very carefully developed and may have a multi-year timeline.  one cannot simply snap their finger.  it takes a long time.  but yes, if the economics justify it, the drilling opportunity is there.  one just has to be willing to do it.

Edited by sidis
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2 minutes ago, sidis said:

to be extremely clear, anyone that is blaming the price of gasoline on joe biden or joe biden's "policies" is either a) a complete and utter dipshit whose worldview is crafted for them by fox news; b) politically motivated asshole like your average rex kramer types; or c) completely ignorant of how global commodities markets actually work.

louder for those under rocks

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6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Leftists have been screeching since March about, “unused leases”.

and even this retort misses the mark completely.  at that time, they were just talking about undeveloped federal leases (meaning drilling opportunities on federal owned or managed land).  most of onshore is developed with private owned land/leases.  there is a ton of that just sitting out there waiting to be exploited.  but again, turning an aircraft carrier.

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18 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Leftists have been screeching since March about, “unused leases”.

. . . in response to the implication that Joe Biden has shut down lease opportunities.  But hey, it's not like you've ever been honest before. why start now?

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