Joe Biden 2022: Enter Dark Brandon

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not 100% convinced Russia would have invaded Ukraine again to be honest.  

you should stick to the sports and lulz boards. this is a little much for you, I'm afraid

[MoJames 8,241]

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not 100% convinced Russia would have invaded Ukraine again to be honest.  

Honestly that wasn't a variable in the question.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

doble. this site does not fuck.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Why May?  Why not the 7.9% in March and 8.3% in April or that it's been over 6% since last October.  7.9% in march was pretty striking as the full brunt of the Ukraine ordeal hadn't even had time to factor into the equation.  It's nice picking nits.    

 

Yes, there are tons of factors involved.  Printing $$ is the number 1 factor in the equation, followed closely by supply chain disruptions.  

 

We're probably going to see a June CPI in the 9 range and another quarter of negative GDP.  It doesn't matter how it happened, shit's fucked.  You can't just go out and blame it on Putin every time and think a fucking populous that can barely pay for food, rent and gas to get to and from work is going to say "That damned ol' Putin!"  

So you have no ability to explain what portion of this grave problem you keep whining about should be attributed to Biden, yet you consistently in multiple threads post about how it’s Biden’s fault.  Cooooool.

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

you should stick to the sports and lulz boards. this is a little much for you, I'm afraid

I can't stand his stupid ass either, but outside of our idiotic tariff war with China (which Biden hasn't done shit to help with) we had a relatively low-key 4 years on the global confrontation front.  For fuck's sake, Ukraine was invaded when Biden was VP.  Putin was emboldened by how bad we bumblefucked the Afghanistan withdrawal.  No doubt he planned on invading Ukraine again, just don't think it would've been done with everything else going on in the world had things been different.  

[MoJames 8,241]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

I can't stand his stupid ass either, but outside of our idiotic tariff war with China (which Biden hasn't done shit to help with) we had a relatively low-key 4 years on the global confrontation front.  For fuck's sake, Ukraine was invaded when Biden was VP.  Putin was emboldened by how bad we bumblefucked the Afghanistan withdrawal.  No doubt he planned on invading Ukraine again, just don't think it would've been done with everything else going on in the world had things been different.  

[Trey3216 15,325]

2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

So you have no ability to explain what portion of this grave problem you keep whining about should be attributed to Biden, yet you consistently in multiple threads post about how it’s Biden’s fault.  Cooooool.

Where have I specifically state it's Biden's fault you illiterate fuck?  I've said it certainly isn't all Putin's fault.  It certainly isn't all Biden's. It certainly isn't all Trump's.  It certainly isn't all Covid.  It's a blend of factors.  

But the facts of the matter are:

1) Inflation has been rampant since the COVID rebound and restart

2) We've printed fucking trillions of dollars over the last 2 years

3)Gas prices were well up long before Putin invaded Ukraine

4)Gas prices are up considerably (about the same percentage wise as the previous increase) since then

5) Supply chain issues have caused considerable damage

6) Wage inflation has caused a lot of inflation as well, and now we are in a situation where real wages are declining due to massive increases in goods/services

7) Shit's gonna get real pretty quick.  

[sidis 9,731]

for context.

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Where have I specifically state it's Biden's fault you illiterate fuck?  I've said it certainly isn't all Putin's fault.  It certainly isn't all Biden's. It certainly isn't all Trump's.  It certainly isn't all Covid.  It's a blend of factors.  

But the facts of the matter are:

1) Inflation has been rampant since the COVID rebound and restart

2) We've printed fucking trillions of dollars over the last 2 years

3)Gas prices were well up long before Putin invaded Ukraine

4)Gas prices are up considerably (about the same percentage wise as the previous increase) since then

5) Supply chain issues have caused considerable damage

6) Wage inflation has caused a lot of inflation as well, and now we are in a situation where real wages are declining due to massive increases in goods/services

7) Shit's gonna get real pretty quick.  

Fuck you, you gasping, half-aborted fetus.

Im not wading through your inane posting history to quote your pattern of assigning blame for inflation primarily to the current president.  If you agree that the difference in inflation between Biden being president and any other potential president would be 2-3% (MAX), then what the fuck have you been crowing about for the last 3 pages.

Welcome to ignore, mon frere.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[fattyflattie 4,636]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Is this based on something? Demand peaked around 2006. We are roughly the same level as 20 years ago. And recent demand prior to the pandemic is at most only like 5% greater than demand in the late 70s. 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/oil-consumption

 

38 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Actually, not.

 

I'm actually glad to see this.  Was actually starting to believe we need to move towards EVs.

[Dahobbs 17,420]

24 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I can't stand his stupid ass either, but outside of our idiotic tariff war with China (which Biden hasn't done shit to help with) we had a relatively low-key 4 years on the global confrontation front.  For fuck's sake, Ukraine was invaded when Biden was VP.  Putin was emboldened by how bad we bumblefucked the Afghanistan withdrawal.  No doubt he planned on invading Ukraine again, just don't think it would've been done with everything else going on in the world had things been different.  

Gee.. who is the one that signed the treaty saying we'd leave Afghanistan in a hurry? 

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/04/973604904/trumps-deal-to-end-war-in-afghanistan-leaves-biden-with-a-terrible-situation

Quote

One of Donald Trump's campaign promises was to end the war in Afghanistan. Last year, he negotiated an agreement with the Taliban to withdraw all U.S. forces by May 1 of 2021.

And here is the agreement itself.

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

 

But sure, it is Biden's fault that happened and not the Trump administration that (1) made the deal, and (2) failed to plan at all for it. Also, totally Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine because Trump was so very hard on Putin by [checks notes] constantly praising him, threatening to disband NATO, and pressuring Zelensky to announce an investigation he could use against Biden. Also, Trump would have definitely come up with a perfect plan for withdrawal in 4 months that didn't happening in the proceeding 10 months. Yup, all of this tracks. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Dahobbs

[sidis 9,731]

45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's a fact.  

do you think prices in february 2021 were normal?  just because people stopped wearing masks in waco by then doesn't mean that global trade and demand had resumed and nominal levels.  if the denominator in a year over year calculation is extraordinarily low due to another exogenous variable...say, elimination of global demand for o&g due to covid shutdowns, do you think that your YOY analysis is particularly relevant when the numerator is reflecting significant increases in demand due to the world moving past covid?  prices were in the $70s and low $80s in january 2022 when the russian invasion talks gripped the markets.  that is compared to $55-60 a year before.  they hit $120 a month and a half later in mid-march.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w

in comparison the growth from may 2020 to may 2021 was 500% because i can cherry pick shit too. 

why do you not want the market to do its thing here?

[Dahobbs 17,420]

1 minute ago, fattyflattie said:

 

 

I'm actually glad to see this.  Was actually starting to believe we need to move towards EVs.

I'm honestly baffled how these connect in your mind. But, regardless, EVs are better cars. You should drive one. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

4 minutes ago, sidis said:

do you think prices in february 2021 were normal?  just because people stopped wearing masks in waco by then doesn't mean that global trade and demand had resumed and nominal levels.  if the denominator in a year over year calculation is extraordinarily low due to another exogenous variable...say, elimination of global demand for o&g due to covid shutdowns, do you think that your YOY analysis is particularly relevant when the numerator is reflecting significant increases in demand due to the world moving past covid?  prices were in the $70s and low $80s in january 2022 when the russian invasion talks gripped the markets.  that is compared to $55-60 a year before.  they hit $120 a month and a half later in mid-march.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w

in comparison the growth from may 2020 to may 2021 was 500% because i can cherry pick shit too. 

why do you not want the market to do its thing here?

You also have to account for the lag in response to changes in demand. An Increase in prices is a signal to bring new supply online. But it doesn't happen overnight. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Gee.. who is the one that signed the treaty saying we'd leave Afghanistan in a hurry? 

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/04/973604904/trumps-deal-to-end-war-in-afghanistan-leaves-biden-with-a-terrible-situation

And here is the agreement itself.

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

 

But sure, it is Biden's fault that happened and not the Trump administration that (1) made the deal, and (2) failed to plan at all for it. Also, totally Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine because Trump was so very hard on Putin by [checks notes] constantly praising him, threatening to disband NATO, and pressuring Zelensky to announce an investigation he could use against Biden. Also, Trump would have definitely come up with a perfect plan for withdrawal in 4 months that didn't happen in the preceding 10 months. Yup, all of this tracks. 

Stupid spelling. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Dahobbs

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

You also have to account for the lag in response to changes in demand. An Increase in prices is a signal to bring new supply online. But it doesn't happen overnight. 

No doubt.  ANd a lot has come back online but, it's not enough.  A lot more would come back online but there's been hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars of CAPEX gone in the industry (be it inability to access financing, PE $$ not wanting to deploy extra capital, the move to alternatives, etc.)   Lot of factors.  

[sidis 9,731]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No doubt.  ANd a lot has come back online but, it's not enough.  A lot more would come back online but there's been hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars of CAPEX gone in the industry (be it inability to access financing, PE $$ not wanting to deploy extra capital, the move to alternatives, etc.)   Lot of factors.  

as i have said in all of my long-winded posts over the last two pages, the o&g market is relatively efficient.  prices will reinvigorate/remotivate and in conjunction with demand destruction, the cycle will go in the other direction.  until then, i need to stop fucking around on this thread and start billing the shit out of my o&g clients.

cue the lawyers on this board (i'm not one) all thinking to themselves..."boy this guy is a fucking idiot, unspoken rule that you bill surly time as "case research" or "draft meaningless procedural pleadings."

[fattyflattie 4,636]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm honestly baffled how these connect in your mind. But, regardless, EVs are better cars. You should drive one. 

If you can find me one that can handle 14 rounds and give me 15 yr/300,000 miles, I'd listen.  

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

as i have said in all of my long-winded posts over the last two pages, the o&g market is relatively efficient.  prices will reinvigorate/remotivate and in conjunction with demand destruction, the cycle will go in the other direction.  until then, i need to stop fucking around on this thread and start billing the shit out of my o&g clients.

cue the lawyers on this board (i'm not one) all thinking to themselves..."boy this guy is a fucking idiot, unspoken rule that you bill surly time as "case research" or "draft meaningless procedural pleadings."

Haha!  I hear that  

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

23 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I'm actually glad to see this.  Was actually starting to believe we need to move towards EVs.

I'm not surprised you have no idea why a move to EVs might be good, regardless of petrol consumption and diminishment.  

It might be nice NOT to overheat the earth any more than we have, even with a century or more of available oil reserves.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

13 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

If you can find me one that can handle 14 rounds and give me 15 yr/300,000 miles, I'd listen.  

14 rounds?  Expand on that because the second part is easily done. 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

14 rounds?  Expand on that because the second part is easily done. 

Hay.  About 22k +/- a few thousand pounds.  Truck things. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

9 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

If you can find me one that can handle 14 rounds and give me 15 yr/300,000 miles, I'd listen.  

14 rounds of... golf? 

Plenty of EVs will last 15 years and 300,000 miles. You got Tesla's at that mileage now. But no company is going to give you that as a warranty on any type of vehicle if that is what you're asking for. I find it odd when people ask for so much more from electric cars than they would ever get for ICE cars. 

[Vegas64 660]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not 100% convinced Russia would have invaded Ukraine again to be honest.  

Mmmmm. Show your work.

[fattyflattie 4,636]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I find it odd when people ask for so much more from electric cars than they would ever get for ICE cars. 

That's not atypical for a diesel pickup, or even most anything with a decent drivetrain.  People move up in vehicles much faster than they "need" because we have a love affair with cars here. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

10 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Hay.  About 22k +/- a few thousand pounds.  Truck things. 

In terms of towage, I think the F150 Lightning is probably your best bet. But that is limited to 10k pounds I believe. It'll be a couple of years before we get ones with towing capacities over 20k pounds. Batteries will have to get cheaper and more power dense (already happening). 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

In terms of towage, I think the F150 Lightning is probably your best bet. But that is limited to 10k pounds I believe. It'll be a couple of years before we get ones with towing capacities over 20k pounds. Batteries will have to get cheaper and more power dense (already happening). 

Unfortunately, we're quite a few years away from a lot of things. I regularly have to drive to DC, Miami, sometimes west.  That will always be a need for people.  But for the masses around town, we need more little EV's. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

5 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

That's not atypical for a diesel pickup, or even most anything with a decent drivetrain.  People move up in vehicles much faster than they "need" because we have a love affair with cars here. 

No consumer vehicle I can think of comes with a 300k warranty. Again, if you're just talking about the lifespan of the vehicle, none of those numbers should be a problem. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Dahobbs

[fattyflattie 4,636]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

No consumer vehicle I can think of comes with a 300k warranty. Again, if you're just talking about the lifespan of the vehicle, none of those numbers should be a problem. 

I don't recall mentioning anything about a warranty.  I don't know where that came into conversation. I just want the drivetrain to work until then, and have some type of residual value, like current ICE trucks.

[Dahobbs 17,420]

Just now, fattyflattie said:

I don't recall mentioning anything about a warranty.  I don't know where that came into conversation. I just want the drivetrain to work until then, and have some type of residual value, like current ICE trucks.

I just didn't know what 15 year/300k referred to. It sounds like warranty language, which is why I asked. EV drive trains are dead simple. The only concern in that regard would be the battery, but newer EVs with active temperature control for the batteries shouldn't have a problem. You got Tesla's with that mileage now on original batteries. But you will lose range in the battery over time just like an ICE engine gets less efficient over time.  And there is always the option/possibility of replacing the battery, which isn't that different from an engine rebuild (and may be cheaper by the time a new EV would potentially need it due to dropping battery prices). 

[elfenix 34,169]

33 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Hay.  About 22k +/- a few thousand pounds.  Truck things. 

towing capacity is more a function of chassis strength than anything else.  electric motors, with instant torque, are inherently better at towing than gas motors. they're also much simpler so the amount of maintenance on the drive train will be lower. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by elfenix

[fattyflattie 4,636]

Just now, elfenix said:

towing capacity is more a function of chassis strength than anything else.

Yes, and no.  The point is, EV has a long way to go to get past 1/2 ton "I need a truck to haul some plywood sometimes" trucks.  But good for folks who putt around town, to and from work everyday, typically by themselves.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,831]

Timely

 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

20 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Yes, and no.  The point is, EV has a long way to go to get past 1/2 ton "I need a truck to haul some plywood sometimes" trucks.  But good for folks who putt around town, to and from work everyday, typically by themselves.

They easily cover 99% of passenger vehicle use cases. 

 

[Covri 6,231]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

14 rounds?  Expand on that because the second part is easily done. 

It’s fattie so I assumed he meant this 

 

 

[bolverk 29,394]

2 hours ago, sidis said:

for context.

For additional context, are these inflation-adjusted prices? If not, those bumps & spikes in earlier years would be considerably higher relative to the current peak.

[Blotto 23,424]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Putin was emboldened by how bad we bumblefucked the Afghanistan withdrawal.

I've seen variations on this theme a few times and I don't get it. Perhaps you can finally explain it to me? The decision to leave was made by Trump, so you must be focusing on the execution. Let's just assume the withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan would have been 100% perfect. Specifically how does that materially change  Putin's calculus on invading Ukraine? 

[jimmyjazz 45,538]

4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I've seen variations on this theme a few times and I don't get it. Perhaps you can finally explain it to me? The decision to leave was made by Trump, so you must be focusing on the execution. Let's just assume the withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan would have been 100% perfect. Specifically how does that materially change  Putin's calculus on invading Ukraine? 

Well, not to jump ahead,  but it wouldn't change that calculus.  Trump's plan was stupid.  Biden delayed it a bit, and still fucked it up.

It was a disaster from the jump.

[bolverk 29,394]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I can't stand his stupid ass either, but outside of our idiotic tariff war with China (which Biden hasn't done shit to help with) we had a relatively low-key 4 years on the global confrontation front.  For fuck's sake, Ukraine was invaded when Biden was VP.  Putin was emboldened by how bad we bumblefucked the Afghanistan withdrawal.  No doubt he planned on invading Ukraine again, just don't think it would've been done with everything else going on in the world had things been different.  

Hopefully, that'll be addressed soon:

Quote

 

Biden Weighs Tariff Rollback to Ease Inflation, Even a Little Bit
While lifting some levies on China is unlikely to put a large dent in inflation, administration officials concede they have few other options to address surging prices.

WASHINGTON — President Biden is weighing whether to roll back some of the tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on Chinese goods, in hopes of mitigating the most rapid price gains in 40 years, according to senior administration officials.

Business groups and some outside economists have been pressuring the administration to relax at least a portion of the taxes on imports, saying it would be a significant step that the president could take to immediately cut costs for consumers.

Yet any action by the administration to lift the tariffs is unlikely to put a large dent in an inflation rate that hit 8.6 percent in May — while the political ramifications could be severe. An influential study this year predicted that a move to lift tariffs could save households $797 a year, but administration officials say the actual effect would most likely be far smaller, in part because there is no chance Mr. Biden will roll back all of the federal government’s tariffs and other protectionist trade measures.

The tariff discussion comes at a precarious time for the economy. Persistent inflation has shattered consumer confidence, driven stock markets into bear territory — down 20 percent from their January high — and inflamed fears of a recession as the Federal Reserve moves quickly to raise interest rates.

Some administration economists privately estimate the tariff reductions that Mr. Biden is considering would reduce the overall inflation rate by as little as a quarter of a percentage point. Still, in a sign of how big a political problem inflation has become, officials are weighing at least a partial relaxation anyway, in part because the president has few other options.

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

Biden going to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mr. Bone Saw makes no sense.

[Anastasis 23,390]

7 hours ago, sidis said:

politically, biden will want to message or provide some theater on him "doing something" for purposes of the upcoming elections but none of it is actually impactful in any material way.  it will take some time for price stickiness to resolve but not a big deal.  the only thing he could actually do to truly impact things in the short-term from a policy perspective is have vlad putin assassinated or just stop caring that he's invaded ukraine and relieve the import bans.

Speaking of “stop caring”, in your view what is the play Biden is running with regard to engaging SA and MBS? Short term return possible, longer term realpolitik, both, or other? 

[Hornius Emeritus 12,408]

6 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm honestly baffled how these connect in your mind. But, regardless, EVs are better cars. You should drive one. 

I am also baffled how he connects these. "Because we were screwing with the planet in the the early 2000s, we can continue to screw with the planet."

[Hornius Emeritus 12,408]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden going to Saudi Arabia to meet with Mr. Bone Saw makes no sense.

He has to do it to get the Saudis to turn the spigot on if the Dems are to have a chance in the fall. It makes perfect sense.

[Biff Tannen 45,491]

8 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Hay.  About 22k +/- a few thousand pounds.  Truck things. 

Ah truck things. Like nuts?

[gmr548 16,481]

But good for folks who putt around town, to and from work everyday, typically by themselves.

So we agree, EV’s are fine replacing a large majority of pickup truck purchases, today.

[Vegas64 660]

9 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

He has to do it to get the Saudis to turn the spigot on if the Dems are to have a chance in the fall. It makes perfect sense.

I get why he's going and what not and but I don't have to love it.

It's not a great look that you'd rather go hat in hand to Mohammad Bone Saw and ask for political favor vis-a-vis help with oil production to help alleviate gas prices at home than take a conciliatory approach to our own domestic O&G companies and asking for some sort of compromise or "Good for America right now" approach and sacrifice. Instead he publicly is vilifying and accusing domestic O&G companies of profiteering and price gouging and what not for political points.

Again, I get it and I like it, but don't necessarily love it.

[fattyflattie 4,636]

5 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ah truck things. Like nuts?

Man. Someone made a million bucks on those I’d bet.  100x better than the guys hanging actual 15# steel nuts from a chain, which has been the thing for the last decade or so.  Those would absolutely kill someone if they fell off.  Stupid. 

[fattyflattie 4,636]

34 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

So we agree, EV’s are fine replacing a large majority of pickup truck purchases, today.

Fo sho. I don’t know about grid constraints and whatnot.  Or the rare earth constraints they are running into, but assume that stuff will work itself out eventually. 

[Incredulity 11,541]

13 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I don’t know about grid constraints and whatnot

They are real and they are spectacular.

[sidis 9,731]

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Speaking of “stop caring”, in your view what is the play Biden is running with regard to engaging SA and MBS? Short term return possible, longer term realpolitik, both, or other? 

it doesn't connote that you're engaging in good faith if you are going to blatantly mischaracterize my posts.  me pointing out that biden's efforts to erroneously blame o&g companies for realizing profits for political messaging purposes (ineffective as it may be) or enacting a specific policy with regards to ethanol or fuel taxes will not actually change the market prices for the commodities is not equivalent to "stop caring."  people can care all they want and that will likely be a big part of the demand side of the equation over the coming months as we observe behavioral changes which will then lead to pricing consequences.  it's just stupid to think that joe biden has much to do with this.

so, in the spirit of dishonest engagement, i suspect he is headed there to see how to get in on some of that sweet ass LIV Tour blood money.