Joe Biden 2022: Enter Dark Brandon

[washparkhorn 9974]

2 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Yes there are supply chain issue , but we also overstimulated the economy fiscally 

Fiscally - somewhat. The PPP was a poorly designed welfare program for business owners and their consuming habits (keeping up with the Jones). 

The monetary stimulation was far worse for inflation given the supply chain problems.  The supply chain remains the primary driver of inflation. The “I want it now” mindset led to price increases. The longer the supply chain remains inefficient, the more likely the inflation will be sticky. 
 

The Fed is drying up liquidity (see Crypto). 

[fattyflattie 4640]

38 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Serious question and it's ok if you want to pm me the answer to save yourself from embarrassment: have you ever been out of the country before? and not just over the border to mexico. but to a country like Sweden, Austria, Germany, anything like that?

This a joke or nah?  I spent roughly 40% of '08-'16 in several countries.  In no particular order - Mexico (couple of years cumulative), Australia, Peru, Bahamas, Malaysia, Singapore, Italy, Russia, UAE, Ecuador.  Feels like I'm missing one, but yeah, I've had a passport or two.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

11 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Fiscally - somewhat. The PPP was a poorly designed welfare program for business owners and their consuming habits (keeping up with the Jones). 

Not in disagreement, but as shittastic as the PPP was, wouldn't the alternative have been worse.  I understand there was some fraud (not paying but being relieved) and keeping Txaggy and Looch flush, but surely millions? of Americans being laid off in masse would have been worse?  Interested in your thoughts because you last 20 financial posts have been spot on. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

20 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

you cannot convince me that you're not a bot that was forced to watch thousands of hours of fox news and now randomly generates words and phrases based on that experience.

I’ll help you out buddy. We overspent. 
 

13 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Fiscally - somewhat. The PPP was a poorly designed welfare program for business owners and their consuming habits (keeping up with the Jones). 

The monetary stimulation was far worse for inflation given the supply chain problems.  The supply chain remains the primary driver of inflation. The “I want it now” mindset led to price increases. The longer the supply chain remains inefficient, the more likely the inflation will be sticky. 
 

The Fed is drying up liquidity (see Crypto). 

But we should throw another couple logs on the fire still pass BBB? Please. 
 

I can only imagine the vitriol here if President Trump was presiding over the worst inflation in 40 years and then went around saying a multi trillion dollar stimulus package full of pet projects was needed and it would lower inflation. How could he say that?!??! Straight up nonsense. 

[fattyflattie 4640]

54 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

They want the benefits of our society with none of the costs.

Said without a single hint of irony.  Truly amazing.  

[fattyflattie 4640]

1 minute ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

I can only imagine the vitriol here if President Trump was presiding over the worst inflation in 40 years and then went around saying a multi trillion dollar stimulus package full of pet projects was needed and it would lower inflation. How could he say that?!??! Straight up nonsense. 

Bro. It’s going to pay for itself in no time. We have millions (10’s of millions?) of high income parents on the sidelines who would be ready and able to contribute if they just had free daycare.  How you can’t understand that this will be a boon for the economy, I don’t know. You just don’t understand economics. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

3 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Bro. It’s going to pay for itself in no time. We have millions (10’s of millions?) of high income parents on the sidelines who would be ready and able to contribute if they just had free daycare.  How you can’t understand that this will be a boon for the economy, I don’t know. You just don’t understand economics. 

Thanks for bringing that up. I found this quite interesting. We should pay for universal pre-K! The benefits are self evident! Wait, what?

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

23 minutes ago, Bravo said:

It was all poorly designed and way too vast. Why did we have to send $1000s to a vast majority of Americans regardless of whether they lost their job or not? I know many people who never lost a job with 2-4 kids that got $30-40K and they didn't need it at all. That wasn't needed. Should've been all tied to unemployment benefits if you got laid off. 

well, which colossal fuckup of a president presided over that program? are you in the least bit surprised it was bungled? I know many people it helped, but I too know a few who didn't need it at all. in premise it was a good program. in practice is was an almost total failure. but it did keep the economy from completely collapsing, so we have that going for us, which is nice

[washparkhorn 9974]

8 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Not in disagreement, but as shittastic as the PPP was, wouldn't the alternative have been worse.  I understand there was some fraud (not paying but being relieved) and keeping Txaggy and Looch flush, but surely millions? of Americans being laid off in masse would have worse. 

Excellent UT paper on the FinTech and fraud with PPP below.
 

I am not so sure PPP was efficient in staving off unemployment. I see  it more as a transfer of wealth to those with bad spending habits and mired in over consumption. Caveat - the data is not there yet for me to conclude the wisdom of directing welfare payments to employers.  There was a hell of a lot of welfare fraud by “business owners” under  PPP that I naively did not expect.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906395
 

In the distribution of the Paycheck Protection Program’s (PPP) $803 billion in funds, FinTech lenders began minimally but ramped up their market share to over 80% of originated loans by the end of the program. We examine metrics related to potential misreporting including non-registered businesses, multiple businesses at residential addresses, abnormally high implied compensation per employee, and large inconsistencies in jobs reported with another government program. We assess these four metrics with five supplemental measures and extensive supporting analysis.

Suspicious loans exhibit sharp and discontinuous increases in misreporting at maximum loan thresholds and round loan amounts with discontinuities more pronounced among FinTechs. FinTech loans are more than 3.5 times as likely to be initiated by someone with a felony record, strongly cluster in industry-county pairs to a degree that is infeasible based on U.S. Census data, and frequently exhibit similar loan features within lender-county pairs. Differences across lenders are persistent with certain FinTech lenders seemingly specializing in questionable loans.

Few of these loans have been prosecuted by authorities or repaid. FinTech lenders in round three rapidly increased both their market share and the fraction of their loans with potential misreporting, particularly in zip codes with the highest levels of questionable lending in earlier rounds. From the first round of the program in April 2020 to the last month of the program in May 2021, the amount of potential misreporting increased more than four-fold. While FinTech lenders likely expand PPP access, this may come at the cost of facilitating fraudulent credit.

[Brisketexan 107003]

42 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

1) Almost all the talking heads and politicians said it was no big deal, then it was transitory, now it was all obvious. Okie dokie. Should I pull up Biden’s quotes on inflation? 2) He’s still claiming the next massive spending bill will lower inflation. Dumbass 

As to point 1, most of them REMAIN of that mind.  Was listening to a senior IMF official just a couple of days ago, and they are PRESENTLY projecting inflation to start to decline by the end of this quarter.  She noted that they had to revise their projections in part because of the hit Omicron put on economic activity, certainly staffing.  This IS transitory inflation....it's just a question of how long the primary conditions contributing to it persist.  The question isn't "how long will inflation last," it's "how long will the largest factors causing and contributing to inflation last?"

As to point 2), that same IMF official noted that they revised their earlier projection of US rate of GDP growth DOWNWARD because of the failure of the infrastructure bill (which they had included in their earlier projections).

So, I mean.....if you take off your partisan hat, these economic inputs and their effects aren't that hard to understand, at least on the macro level.  When you layer on the fact that these factors remain erratic and unpredictable (Omicron is a good example of a wild-card that wasn't in earlier projections), you can understand the uncertainty of any predictions at this point with any precision.

[elfenix 34763]

1 hour ago, Bravo said:

I got an idea! Let's shutdown the economy then open it back up and tout the huge gains it made getting back to where it was. Let's also ignore the largest increase in inflation in 40 yrs. 

actually if we ignored inflation it'd be 10%+.  this is real GDP so it takes into account inflation. 

[StassneyHorn 6790]

1 hour ago, Bravo said:

I got an idea! Let's shutdown the economy then open it back up and tout the huge gains it made getting back to where it was. Let's also ignore the largest increase in inflation in 40 yrs. 

Country has been open for over a year. Trump tools already claimed 33% GDP increase

[StassneyHorn 6790]

8 minutes ago, Bravo said:

You can't believe it just all came back online immediately. It still hasn't all they way. 

Yea I can, and you can’t prove that second sentence

Edited January 27, 2022 by StassneyHorn

[DaysOff 8218]

Instead of sack lies about state funding of UT. 
https://onestop.utexas.edu/managing-costs/cost-tuition-rates/learn-more-about-tuition/sources-of-revenue/

All I know is I paid 4 dollars per hour at UT in the fall of 85. There's one party that's controlled this state since that thinks book learning is for fags.

[StassneyHorn 6790]

That’s not true, Greg Abbott caused inflation with a 1 month lockdown.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

That’s not true, Greg Abbott caused inflation with a 1 month lockdown.

someone send this thought nugget to huffines

[fuggled 576]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Why would that be.  We are the greatest country on earth.  You really have to fuck up to not make it here. 

Uh, yeah.  Maybe you can explain to me which other taxes get refunded to some, but not others, depending ironically enough, on your lack of input?

I'm not ignoring it.  It's the most discriminatory one.  I don't pay less sales tax than the guy next to me because he worth 20x as much.  We pay in the same, for the same service, otherwise known as "fair". 

 

[DaysOff 8218]

Dude, stop taking the word shutdown as if all things stopped. Everyone knows what it means but you I guess when I am talking about what happened with business for the 1st yr of covid. 

It means Chili's had to do curbside.

[StassneyHorn 6790]

I’ll never forgive Abbott for this

[Gourmand 7778]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Why would that be.  We are the greatest country on earth.  You really have to fuck up to not make it here. 

God you are such a fucking tool. 

Why is it that the same people who loudly make bold proclamations about "WE'RE #1  IN AWESOME!!!' are the same ones who are most obsessed with making sure we're actually #67? These are the people who are delusional about American exceptionalism and spend all their energy opposing fiscal and social policies that would just get America to par with the rest of the developed world.

 

[DaysOff 8218]

Boomer! 

Gen X Einstein

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

4 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

God you are such a fucking tool. 

Why is it that the same people who loudly make bold proclamations about "WE'RE #1  IN AWESOME!!!' are the same ones who are most obsessed with making sure we're actually #67? These are the people who are delusional about American exceptionalism and spend all their energy opposing fiscal and social policies that would just get America to par with the rest of the developed world.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

We're #6! we're #6!
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/overall-rankings

[fattyflattie 4640]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

We're #6! we're #6!
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/overall-rankings

Pretty interesting list.  So basically the best of the non-homogeneous countries?

[Chuckie Finster 23094]

3 minutes ago, Bravo said:

We're #1 in being kick ass. Prove me wrong. 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/profile/4013-bravo/

[mchookem 16781]

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

I can only imagine the vitriol here if President Trump was presiding over the worst inflation in 40 years and then went around saying a multi trillion dollar stimulus package full of pet projects was needed and it would lower inflation. How could he say that?!??! Straight up nonsense. 

we all know it wouldn't be full of 'pet projects'...it would be nothing but tax cuts.

and we all know how well tax cuts stimulate the economy 😐

Edited January 27, 2022 by mchookem

[wildcat09 29599]

11 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Pretty interesting list.  So basically the best of the non-homogeneous countries?

Switzerland has three official languages and they pretty much all speak a fourth as well. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

As to point 1, most of them REMAIN of that mind.  Was listening to a senior IMF official just a couple of days ago, and they are PRESENTLY projecting inflation to start to decline by the end of this quarter.  She noted that they had to revise their projections in part because of the hit Omicron put on economic activity, certainly staffing.  This IS transitory inflation....it's just a question of how long the primary conditions contributing to it persist.  The question isn't "how long will inflation last," it's "how long will the largest factors causing and contributing to inflation last?"

As to point 2), that same IMF official noted that they revised their earlier projection of US rate of GDP growth DOWNWARD because of the failure of the infrastructure bill (which they had included in their earlier projections).

So, I mean.....if you take off your partisan hat, these economic inputs and their effects aren't that hard to understand, at least on the macro level.  When you layer on the fact that these factors remain erratic and unpredictable (Omicron is a good example of a wild-card that wasn't in earlier projections), you can understand the uncertainty of any predictions at this point with any precision.

You’re talking about Georgieva the head of IMF. Let’s hope their projections are better going forward. 
 

As for supply chain contribution to increased inflation they put that number globally at 1.0% in 2021. Even if that number comes off in the next year (not certain) then you still have a high enough number to get the public and politicians’ attention. We’re sitting at 7% cpi last month. 
 

 

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Switzerland has three official languages and they pretty much all speak a fourth as well. 

and it's such a wonderful country. of all of the places I visited in Europe, it felt most like a place I could live.

[Willfully Horn 8280]

13 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Switzerland has three official languages and they pretty much all speak a fourth as well. 

The Swiss government asks what religion you practice, and automatically deducts a tithe from your income and gives it to the church of you choice. ‘None’ is the fastest growing religion in Switzerland.

Oh, you can buy one hard boiled egg at a time in convenience stores, too. Picnic eggs. A practice I’d love my local stores to emulate.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

19 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

and it's such a wonderful country. of all of the places I visited in Europe, it felt most like a place I could live.

Libs love themselves some white euro ethnostates.

[wildcat09 29599]

I guess Sack blocked me. Sad.

[Biff Tannen 46197]

30 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Switzerland has three official languages and they pretty much all speak a fourth as well. 

And the Dutch speak five languages and smoke marijuana.

Yes, but they're cheating!

[StassneyHorn 6790]

40 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Libs love themselves some white euro ethnostates.

Thirsty Thursday is undefeated

[Johnny Sack 8397]

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Thirsty Thursday is undefeated

Sitting in the office.  No booze since New Years.  Thinking about going longer than a month.

[Satchel 6983]

2 hours ago, Bravo said:

It was all poorly designed and way too vast. Why did we have to send $1000s to a vast majority of Americans regardless of whether they lost their job or not? I know many people who never lost a job with 2-4 kids that got $30-40K and they didn't need it at all. That wasn't needed. Should've been all tied to unemployment benefits if you got laid off. 

How else would we have gotten to a 5.8% growth rate in the economy,  3.8% unemployment and  million new jobs? What president wouldn’t take that his first year in office?

[jimmyjazz 47284]

This level of inflation is child's play.  Too many of you are way too young to know what the fuck you are talking about.

[Satchel 6983]

5 minutes ago, Bravo said:

None but most of that was going to happen naturally once businesses were going to be allowed to open back up normally. I am not saying nothing should've been done but it was WAY TOO much. We had to do something because the govt forced a lot of businesses to shut down. Millions lost work to no fault of their own due to lockdown rules. It was way too wasteful, corrupt and went on way too long. Now we get to deal with the inflation due to it and labor shortages. 

So, what are you arguing against? Too much winning? And that’s 6 million new jobs, btw.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Satchel

[elfenix 34763]

we could have done nothing and been in a depression instead. 

[Satchel 6983]

1 minute ago, Bravo said:

New? You sure about that?

Or old. It’s still 6 million.

[elfenix 34763]

Just now, Bravo said:

Did I say do nothing?

most of it wasn't going to happen naturally?

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

Libs love themselves some white euro ethnostates.

Well you think America has been the greatest country in the world for going on 400 years now. So I guess those white euro ethnostates need them some more black slaves.

[elfenix 34763]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

Libs love themselves some white euro ethnostates.

following this line of thought: we can't do that here because ______________ (fill in the blank)

Edited January 27, 2022 by elfenix

[elfenix 34763]

"govt shut it down" isn't an accurate recounting of events.  the economy went off a cliff before government reacted when everyone panicked. 

 

the fact of the matter is that inflation is a global phenomenon, which your US centric story telling can't account for, and the US growth is outpacing the world, which belies your claim that it would have come back naturally.

Edited January 27, 2022 by elfenix

[Satchel 6983]

7 minutes ago, Bravo said:

2020 by itself almost 10M jobs lost. So are most of those really "new" or just most of the old jobs coming back?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-losses-in-2020-were-worst-since-1939-with-hispanics-blacks-teenagers-among-hardest-hit-11610133434

All God’s children got articles: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-07/biden-says-his-economic-plan-working-after-record-2021-job-gain

• Job growth followed 2020 losses due to coronavirus pandemic
• Payrolls grew by 6.4 million last year, Friday’s report shows

Edited January 27, 2022 by Satchel

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

following this line of thought: we can't do that here because ______________ (fill in the blank)

The blecks and browns are quite the inconvenience to guys who think like the sack.

[Anastasis 23719]

Anyone know what is involved for a foreigner to permanently taking up Swiss residence or citizenship?

[aggie08 21844]

Switzerland also loves them some guns, but they manage not to go on random killing sprees with them. Fucking pussies.

[JimmyJames 12271]

29 minutes ago, Bravo said:

they're not going to believe you.

Because he’s a liar.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, aggie08 said:

Switzerland also loves them some guns, but they manage not to go on random killing sprees with them. Fucking pussies.

They forgot to pass the second amendment, get judges to misinterpret it, and form the NRA primarily backed by Russian money. The swiss frown on that sort of thing.