2022 Poker: Ship it!

[dirtonia 269]

They had two 1-2 tables and a Big O table going. A lot of the same old APP crew.

Got ‘em for 1700 tonight.

[AUS-97HORN 11,756]

this may be an insensitive question, but its Surly and its kinda related to APP...

 

did Mr Lee survive covid?

 

he was pretty sick the 2-3 months before covid shut down APP. 

 

 

[Blotto 23,485]

I hope so. 

[blacklab 11,926]

2 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

did Mr Lee survive covid?

yes. he dumped $12k the other night

[dirtonia 269]

He’s been there both times I’ve gone.

[BillyGoatHill 4,312]

On 3/19/2022 at 3:18 AM, dirtonia said:

They had two 1-2 tables and a Big O table going. A lot of the same old APP crew.

Got ‘em for 1700 tonight.

Playing big O? 

Have you played any 1-2 there, and if so, how is the action on those? I haven't seen anything on their app, what's their hourly and monthly..... Thanks.

[dirtonia 269]

Playing big O? 
Have you played any 1-2 there, and if so, how is the action on those? I haven't seen anything on their app, what's their hourly and monthly..... Thanks.

Not much of a Big O player, I was just playing 1-2 with double board PLO bomb pots once an orbit. So, the 1-2 action is healthy for sure.

Think the monthly was $20, and if you pay 4 hours of time it’s $9.

[BillyGoatHill 4,312]

1 hour ago, dirtonia said:

Not much of a Big O player, I was just playing 1-2 with double board PLO bomb pots once an orbit. So, the 1-2 action is healthy for sure.

Think the monthly was $20, and if you pay 4 hours of time it’s $9.

Guess I better get my butt back in there !

January-March '20, only playing there sparingly a couple of x's a week, I was averaging 1k a week, had made 8k before their bad management and covid BS closed their doors. Sounds like it is now as it was before (plus a bit closer for me than going to TCH or the Lodge). Might have to go there before or after the ballgame tomorrow night. Thanks for the info. I appreciate it. +rep 

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

[Lurch 5,922]

$2/5

UTG straddles to $10. LJ makes it $40. I call in CO w AcQh. Both blinds and UTG call. $200 pot.

Qc7c3d. LJ cbets $75. I just call. Blinds fold, UTG calls. $425 pot.

9h. Checks to me. I make it $250. UTG jams $850. LJ folds.

I have him covered. I’d be calling $600 to win $2050.

He’s a solid reg. Capable of bluffs but not overly aggressive.

Call or fold?

[TXSooner518 2,438]

I don’t love it. Us having Ac also sucks bc he can’t be semi-bluffing NFD. Seems we are either ratfucked or he has like KcTc or JcTc. Any idea how he views us?

[dirtonia 269]

I’m calling, but he shows 99 maybe and call for chips.

[Bookman 4,638]

In my experience at 1/2, UTG has 7-7 or 3-3.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

yeah, check-overcall, check-jam is a pretty damn strong line. Agree that 77 and 33 are the two most likely hands. 

we are getting pretty good odds, but I think he can have Q9s, 77, 33, possible 99 for value and only bluffs I see are JcTc, Tc8c, KcJc, KcTc, Jc8c.  And he's pretty much always doing this when he has value hand but not always when he has semi-bluff hand. 

I think I fold here, and call if I don't have the Ac, since then he has a lot more potential semi-bluff combos. Exception made if he thinks we are often FOS, or that we overfold hands to aggression.

Edited March 23, 2022 by TXSooner518

[Lurch 5,922]

Yeah this was a very tough decision for me. In this session I have folded turn or river several times to him already. I thought he might see me as weak to a bluff because of those prior hands.

I also had to consider that he was a straddle (itself a semi-aggro behavior) and he probably could call with 80% of his hands preflop because of the way it played out. Therefore pretty much any flush draws were possible, though I’m not sure he’d jam with the weaker ones. Perhaps those where he also had a pair.

Hated that I had the Ac, but not enough to fold.

I call and he had Q9o

Not to be results oriented, but I don’t like my call in retrospect. It was too close/questionable and I could have waited for better opportunities

[Lurch 5,922]

In my experience at 1/2, UTG has 7-7 or 3-3.

I wouldn’t expect a set to check both flop and turn. Typically that player needs to take over because of the draws, especially on the turn. I was fairly confident he didn’t have a set.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

I wouldn’t expect a set to check both flop and turn. Typically that player needs to take over because of the draws, especially on the turn. I was fairly confident he didn’t have a set.

If he will check Q9 on turn he can def check a set bc Q9 is way more vulnerable.

[Lurch 5,922]

If he will check Q9 on turn he can def check a set bc Q9 is way more vulnerable.

Yeah, I tried thinking about how I’d have played his hand, and I’m pretty sure I bet out on that turn. I want to say he acted quickly so he may not have thought it through.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Yeah, I tried thinking about how I’d have played his hand, and I’m pretty sure I bet out on that turn. I want to say he acted quickly so he may not have thought it through.

I think at least half of players will continue to slow play there, when you have a PFR and a caller also. It’s a fine line in continuing to get other people to put money in and not get run down.

[Bookman 4,638]

19 hours ago, Lurch said:

I wouldn’t expect a set to check both flop and turn. Typically that player needs to take over because of the draws, especially on the turn. I was fairly confident he didn’t have a set.

That's a good point, but it's hard to play a flopped set out of position multiway. Since there was a bet/call on the flop I'd check a set on the turn there against good players.

 

[dirtonia 269]

That's a good point, but it's hard to play a flopped set out of position multiway. Since there was a bet/call on the flop I'd check a set on the turn there against good players.
 

Why is it hard to play a flopped set out of position multiway?

I thinking of Vegas and the fucking Mirage babeeeee.

[Lurch 5,922]

That's a good point, but it's hard to play a flopped set out of position multiway. Since there was a bet/call on the flop I'd check a set on the turn there against good players.
 

When I flop a set I immediately think about how to get it all in, generally by getting something in on all three streets. I don’t think I ever donk the flop as cbetters will typically be able to inflate the pot more than I would by donking, but I am absolutely going to lead out on the turn in almost all cases because a check through is disastrous.

[Bookman 4,638]

5 hours ago, dirtonia said:

Why is it hard to play a flopped set out of position multiway?

I thinking of Vegas and the fucking Mirage babeeeee.

It is always difficult to build a big pot out of position, at least against good players. And it can be difficult to balance your range.

if you’re UTG there the in-position player should have a good hand much of the time, unless he was floating to bluff. Either way, I’d expect a bet on the turn quite often. You might get a check back from a flush draw, but when the flush comes in and pairs the board you’re going to stack them.

[Bookman 4,638]

I would personally discount flush draws a bit since the cutoff wasn’t closing the action on the flop.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

14 hours ago, Lurch said:

When I flop a set I immediately think about how to get it all in, generally by getting something in on all three streets. I don’t think I ever donk the flop as cbetters will typically be able to inflate the pot more than I would by donking, but I am absolutely going to lead out on the turn in almost all cases because a check through is disastrous.

Why not check-raise flop in this spot? Seems like you're more likely to also have draws, and thus more likely to get paid, and also avoids a hand like KK being scared off by a bad turn.  What are you balancing your check-overcall, lead turn range with against strong hands?  If we are leading turn small, we can look like we are trying to set a low price for a draw, but we aren't building the pot as much. If we are leading turn large, what are we repping? 

8 hours ago, Bookman said:

It is always difficult to build a big pot out of position, at least against good players. And it can be difficult to balance your range.

if you’re UTG there the in-position player should have a good hand much of the time, unless he was floating to bluff. Either way, I’d expect a bet on the turn quite often. You might get a check back from a flush draw, but when the flush comes in and pairs the board you’re going to stack them.

Exactly, this whole discussion illustrates the problem with being OOP, it's much harder to control the pot size. 

8 hours ago, Bookman said:

I would personally discount flush draws a bit since the cutoff wasn’t closing the action on the flop.

Why? You don't think lots of people just call flush draws here?

[Bookman 4,638]

5 hours ago, TXSooner518 said:

Why? You don't think lots of people just call flush draws here?

No, there definitely will be calls with flush draws, but I don't think it's profitable to call with every flush draw from that spot.

[TXSooner518 2,438]

No, there definitely will be calls with flush draws, but I don't think it's profitable to call with every flush draw from that spot.

Agree but don’t see a lot of folding flush draws on flop in 1/2 unless action is bonkers.

[Lurch 5,922]

Re check raising flop, you’re right. That’s likely what I would do in most situations when I flop a set OOP vs aggressor.

[Lurch 5,922]

$2/5 sitting w $1100

Open UTG w JdJc to $20. LJ calls (black 40ish decent reg, $400 behind). BTN makes it $80 (Asian 50ish solid reg, $1000 behind). I call, LJ folds. $180 pot

8c3h2h. I check call $110. $400 pot

Qc. I check, he makes it $250

What do you do?

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Against unknown i click call again. Any info on his double barrel rate? Would he be checking back or betting 99 or AK here?

[Lurch 5,922]

He’s pretty aggro. I’d guess he double barrels 99 but not AK here

[Bookman 4,638]

I hate these spots. Your hand is almost face up too.

[deech 2,269]

stack size of opponent?

[Lurch 5,922]

stack size of opponent?

Added above, but his stack was near identical to mine

[deech 2,269]

That may have been an ideal spot to four bet with JJ IMHO.  

I call another street.  I think half the deck should scare the naked overpair with the two flush draws.

[Lurch 5,922]

What would be your 4bet size?

[deech 2,269]

9 minutes ago, Lurch said:

What would be your 4bet size?

With shorty in between, I think I make it $200 straight.  If LJ jams, it would put Button in a pickle with your chance to re-raise and iso.  

That or something like a standard 3x reraise - maybe $230?

[Lurch 5,922]

That’s a smart play that I didn’t consider. It’s quite possible I’ve never 4bet out of position with anything other than AA/KK.

After watching BTN the rest of the night, he very well could have been weak. That said, he also could very well have put me to the test on the river with pretty much any card. I folded turn, so we’ll never know.

Regardless, finished a solid 8 hr session +$2400, so not too concerned that laying it down was too weak

[Bookman 4,638]

I would have folded the turn there too. I would have called if it was in the later stages of a tournament. It just seems like they're bluffing more often in a tournament.

But I suck at tournaments, so it's probably best not to listen to me.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Bookman

[TXSooner518 2,438]

I don’t think folding turn there is weak, it’s def a close shitty spot. Nice session!

I like 4b pre if opp is really squeezy and agg preflop, or if he’s good and the original caller of your raise is terrible (since the 3b is more likely to be light), or if one of you is shorter so you’re fine just getting in pre. Without these we can get in some super gross spots. Obv getting 5b will suck ass, but so will getting flat called. Say we go 220 and he calls. Now there is almost 500 in pot and we have 900 behind. An overcard will come 1/2 the time. Are we giving up all of those times? Just committed to get in no matter what?

[deech 2,269]

He said he was aggro, he was on the button, and we were UTG.  I think its a spot to provide some variance to your 4 bet range that is not AA/KK or AK.  A 5 bet will always suck when you are at the bottom of your range.  If you fold though, you lose a little more than you do if you flat and lose.

With regards to what you do after the flop if he just flats - you play the remainder of the hand out of position just like you would have done if you just called the 3 bet.  You are super cautious of AA/KK being slow played.  With the 500 pot and 900 behind your continuation bet should be in the range of $300.  It's not an easy spot, but the alternatives aren't great either.

 

 

 

[TXSooner518 2,438]

He said he was aggro, he was on the button, and we were UTG.  I think its a spot to provide some variance to your 4 bet range that is not AA/KK or AK.  A 5 bet will always suck when you are at the bottom of your range.  If you fold though, you lose a little more than you do if you flat and lose.
With regards to what you do after the flop if he just flats - you play the remainder of the hand out of position just like you would have done if you just called the 3 bet.  You are super cautious of AA/KK being slow played.  With the 500 pot and 900 behind your continuation bet should be in the range of $300.  It's not an easy spot, but the alternatives aren't great either.
 
 
 

Agree with all of this logic. Wasn’t meaning by my post that I wouldn’t necessarily 4b here, just describing in a vacuum when I would want to 4b vs flat. I do prefer a polarized 4b range rather than linear so adding the A4s/A5s works better than adding strong hands that are ahead of the 3b but way behind the 5b. JJ is right in the border.

As far as playing just like if we flat tho, the pot is much smaller with a diff SPR so that will affect things a lot. I would base my cbet size on the flop texture but would very likely be a lot smaller than 300.

Also agree that there are no great alternatives and this is another example of how OOP just sucks.

[TonyTexas 10,504]

Does all this analysis actually go through y’alls head live, while making a decision? If so, I don’t want to be in the same vicinity as you and a deck of cards.  

[Lurch 5,922]

If anyone is around can someone tell me what Chuck had on seat 8 at 4:25 Central when the flop came 963 and I had K6 in seat 1

Bestbet livestream $2/5/25

[Lurch 5,922]

Does all this analysis actually go through y’alls head live, while making a decision? If so, I don’t want to be in the same vicinity as you and a deck of cards.  

Yeah if you want to be a winning player long term

[TXSooner518 2,438]

Does all this analysis actually go through y’alls head live, while making a decision? If so, I don’t want to be in the same vicinity as you and a deck of cards.  

Most of it is in the prep work and being used to certain situations, rather than recalibrating from scratch every hand.

[Lurch 5,922]

In last nights live stream the player in seat 5 made a bet with another that they called the Jack Four game. He said the other player could choose any two cards (in this case they used Jack & Four) and if either of those two cards appeared in the flop, seat 5 would pay the other guy $50. If neither card appeared, the other guy would owe $25 to Seat 5.

Several of us quickly calculated that this was a terrible bet for Seat 5, but he was so damn confident that he knew that he was a favorite for long term EV, that he had us all questioning the math for nearly an hour. This was only exasperated by him getting up 11 bets in fairly short order.

Through the rest of the stream plus several hours after as we continued the table, the guy finally had to quit as the odds eventually caught up to him and he eventually dropped $800+ playing the side game alone

It was pretty wild watching his confidence weaken over the course of ~4 hours with something he’d been convinced of as a winning side game for YEARS that he’d somehow maintained some success with at his home game. He was nearly a broken man by the end of it… just couldn’t understand why it wasn’t working

/csb

[Lurch 5,922]

For those wondering, I calculated that the odds of hitting was 46.15%, which you could arrive at by adding (8/52) + (8/52) + (8/52) = 24/52 = 6/13 = 46.15%

Alternatively you could recognize that a deck has 17.333 flops of 3 cards, of which the 8 cards evenly distribute as 8/17.3333 = 46.15%

For Seat 5 to be break even with his $25/$50 pay structure, he needed the hit odds to be 33.3% or less, so he was WAY off.

I calculated that he should have been paying ~$29.17 rather than $50 for this to be break even for both sides (46.15/53.85 x $25) and that the bet was +$9.50 EV for the other guy PER HAND!

[Lurch 5,922]

Also, at one point his wife texted him mid stream laughing that he had convinced someone to play the Jack Four game

[TXSooner518 2,438]

He needs to tweak it with some bonus for hitting 2 of them, I mean, what are the odds that TWO of those hit the flop?!?