2022 Rain Thread

[Loop 1604 227]

Hopefully this La Niña-ish trend of every storm ejecting to the north of us and spitting out humidity/drizzle doesn’t continue or central/south TX is fukt this spring/summer.

Death ridge imminent? Thanks a lot Bin Laden!

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Loop 1604

[phdhorn 6224]

On 2/20/2022 at 7:56 AM, UT_OB1 said:

@phdhorn what are the odds that the rain forecasted for SE Tx on Thursday fizzles out?  I got people lined up to get a roof installed and inspected that day. 

I think rain will be very, very light if any, but not a good start to Thursday (< freezing).  After about 10 or so I think other than being really cold and maybe a little wet, things improve.

Of course if you're on a wet roof in 35° temps it might not be the best day.

More details from the other thread:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/22703-2021-2022-texas-winter-weather-thread/&do=findComment&comment=4089679

 

[UT_OB1 2213]

On 2/22/2022 at 8:35 AM, phdhorn said:

I think rain will be very, very light if any, but not a good start to Thursday (< freezing).  After about 10 or so I think other than being really cold and maybe a little wet, things improve.

Of course if you're on a wet roof in 35° temps it might not be the best day.

More details from the other thread:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/22703-2021-2022-texas-winter-weather-thread/&do=findComment&comment=4089679

 

There was no re-roofing work done today. 

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I wanted to get up on the roof to fill-in/re-stain two of my eaves on Sunday.  But instead, I'll be drinking and watching "Afterparty" on Appletv+

Shit can wait until next weekend.  

Sucks though because can't take the munchkins to UT baseball in this kinda weather.  

[phdhorn 6224]

Sunday's going to be nice, actually. High about 60, sunny.

I'll bet somebody one bottle of beer that we've had our last daytime (i.e. later than say 10 a.m.) freeze for the year. I'd almost be willing to bet a second bottle that we may not freeze again until the fall. But it's been a weird winter so I hold off on that second one. Beer just doesn't grow on trees, you know.

Edited February 26, 2022 by phdhorn

[utee94 15797]

Yup I'll be at the game tomorrow.  Couldn't pay me enough to have gone today.

 

 

(That's not actually true, I can be bought, and probably quite cheaply)

[Chet Steadman 940]

40 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Sunday's going to be nice, actually. High about 60, sunny.

I'll bet somebody one bottle of beer that we've had our last daytime (i.e. later than say 10 a.m.) freeze for the year. I'd almost be willing to bet a second bottle that we may not freeze again until the fall. But it's been a weird winter so I hold off on that second one. Beer just doesn't grow on trees, you know.

You said something similar back in October about our last day over 90 degrees…then December and Christmas happened.  

Count me in!

[phdhorn 6224]

13 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

You said something similar back in October about our last day over 90 degrees…then December and Christmas happened.  

Count me in!

Oh yeah... well..er.. that was...uh... Yeah, that was done on purpose just to... uh.. to.. umm... gin up some action! I knew all the time it would get warm again... Yeah, that's it!!

[Hate 20106]

The CPC is not bullish on a nice spring for Texas.  It looks to be hot and dry for the next 90 days at least.  It's been while since we've had a bad drought.  This may be the year.

[Guest]

Could be, could not be. I don't place much stock in the seasonal outlooks. The 8-14 day outlooks seem to be pretty good imo.

But if it's still La Nina, I guess that does point to hot/dry.

[Bateshorn 9927]

So, the rule I’ve generally lived by is if it’s pouring in Australia, specifically Queensland, Texas is gonna drought.  It’s not 100%, but correlates enough for me to notice what’s up.

My friends in a raised house in Brisbane has to evacuate due to flooding the other day….

[Guest]

Anyone else think that the hill country looks weirdly different this winter? Can't quite put my finger on it, but it looks more "drought" than just dormant for the winter. Just super brown.

[South Austin 52431]

9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Anyone else think that the hill country looks weirdly different this winter? Can't quite put my finger on it, but it looks more "drought" than just dormant for the winter. Just super brown.

I’m in Llano today for a hearing, and was thinking the same thing driving out here on 29. Very brown and dry.

[Guest]

Looking for rain like...

[Guest]

Prolly nothin'

[miguelito 11250]

Well the good news is that summer is almost over and ... wait, it's March?

 

We're fucked. 

[Hate 20106]

We are due for a drought.  It's been a while.

[NorthLoop 14180]

Was there rain in the forecast today? These storms are outta nowhere. 

[Updawg 2266]

Was there rain in the forecast today? These storms are outta nowhere. 

Except we ain’t getting rain here

[Guest Lobo]

Looks like Monday is our next best chance?  Would certainly explain why I've only seen a handful of wildflower patches scattered around town.  This whole situation started to feel way wrong back in October.  What if they had weather/climate stats like sabremetrics in baseball?  

[Guest]

What are you talking about? We've had 0.1" here, halfway through March. It's a deluge!

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, sorry.  I was bailing out water from my yard and got distracted.  

Also the first SXSW I can remember in a long while there wasn't either crazy rains or a big cold spell.  Half dozen people yesterday from outta town, "My god, the weather here is perfect...I think we're gonna try to move here next year."  

Great, 'drought people'...

[crash_davis 23096]

apropos this thread, probably.

 

[Guest Lobo]

So weather, like time, is a flat circle? 

[phdhorn 6224]

25 minutes ago, Lobo said:

So weather, like time, is a flat circle? 

No, weather is a 1-30 day blob.  Climate is a (whatever).
Weather is not climate.  Like this rain thread is weather, not climate.
The End.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I know man.  I was trying to tie it into the "True Detectives" quote..."Time is flat circle".  I felt, as an occasional writer, that "Weather is a flat circle" was catchier than "Climate is a flat circle." precisely because of the juxtaposition to duration.  I guess I could go either way.  I understand the difference.  It was supposed to be a callback not a instigation.  As always, I appreciate your expertise and my own ability to fuck up a decently clever joke. 

[phdhorn 6224]

23 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, I know man.  I was trying to tie it into the "True Detectives" quote..."Time is flat circle".  I felt, as an occasional writer, that "Weather is a flat circle" was catchier than "Climate is a flat circle." precisely because of the juxtaposition to duration.  I guess I could go either way.  I understand the difference.  It was supposed to be a callback not a instigation.  As always, I appreciate your expertise and my own ability to fuck up a decently clever joke. 

Well, no problem, was sort of posting more as a uniform statement, not to you... unfortunately the "quote" feature often reads like "stick it up your ass" and of course none intended.  Carry on.  Let me check on the clima... er.. weather this week. (Hint:  another chance of rain that is gonna fall flat I think Thursday).

[miguelito 11250]

It's never going to rain again.  Maybe even on a "climate" time period.  NEVER.

[utee94 15797]

19 minutes ago, miguelito said:

It's never going to rain again.  Maybe even on a "climate" time period.  NEVER.

He'sRightYouKnow.gif

 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Poopy chance of rain as a cold front, er wind shift, comes in Thursday.
Pretty good chance of rain Monday - first severe outlook of the season.  Stay tuned if it gets significant.  At this point nothing terrorizing, but it is March and here we go.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Could use some rain. Wildfires from Big Lake to west of Ft. Worth .

 

Candace Sweat

 

@CandaceNBC5

·

7m

 

Headed to Eastland County. Made contact with Texas A&M Forest Service while en route. I’m told four fires now referred to as the #eastlandcomplex. As of 7pm – one fire roughly 95% contained, others are at zero containment.

@NBCDFW

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Biff Tannen 45661]

Candace Sweat username checks out

[Loop 1604 227]

We’re so fucked this spring/summer. 
Extremely -PDO and strong La Niña means we’re gonna have a bad time.

Hoo boy, get used to that dry ass air from the Mexican desert to our SW…

It’s never gonna rain again!

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

[irishtexan 11511]

Trees aren't budding. No wildflowers when typically they're typically bursting this time of year. Looks like a strong chance of rain on Monday. We really, really need it. 

[Biff Tannen 45661]

8 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Trees aren't budding. No wildflowers when typically they're typically bursting this time of year. Looks like a strong chance of rain on Monday. We really, really need it. 

I saw this too. A lot of trees aren’t budding. My weirdo tree in my backyard that usually buds way too early is, but he’s kind of a Kevin. Whatever. Nature knows better than we do. 

[phdhorn 6224]

We should get at least a squall line with Monday.  NE of us (say from N Williamson County E and N into NE Texas), first time ever SPC initiated a "30% or greater" ("Enhanced" in common parlance) risk for this early in the season anywhere in Texas.  I think their weather is gonna be fairly bad.  Right now we're in "slight" risk.  "Enhanced" means if you live in a spot, severe weather is almost certain to occur within a 25 mile radius.  "Slight" means within 50 miles.  ("High", the highest category, is almost never issued, and if it is, kiss your house and ass goodbye).

Hopefully that "enhanced" line doesn't creep SW ward.  Otherwise, best chance since... uh... the last time it rained a lot which I think was about a month ago.  Next Mon. into Tues. is gonna be an asscheek sweater, so I'll keep an eye on it.

Edited March 18, 2022 by phdhorn

[phdhorn 6224]

Good news, the severe area has moved even more east, about 1/2 of Travis County not even in it anymore.  That said, severe areas are like impressionistic paintings... foggy and blurry but colorful.  We'll see.  Rain still in the picture, but I doubt much more than a heavy dew.

[miguelito 11250]

Sounds like some of y'all will need to watch your cornhole.

 

Meanwhile, the rest of us ain't getting shit.

Thanks, la nina. 

[InkaUtexas 25855]

2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Good news, the severe area has moved even more east, about 1/2 of Travis County not even in it anymore.  That said, severe areas are like impressionistic paintings... foggy and blurry but colorful.  We'll see.  Rain still in the picture, but I doubt much more than a heavy dew.

We all know it will rain at your place. 

[phdhorn 6224]

19 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

We all know it will rain at your place. 

Yep, correct.  Why, just last week...

[jettrink 40]

1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

Yep, correct.  Why, just last week...

Where's your 1824 flag or the Republic of Texas flag, carpet bagger?

[BrickTop 474]

Not sure if I’ve ever seen the sig severe tornado risk that high in Houston

[phdhorn 6224]

13 hours ago, jettrink said:

Where's your 1824 flag or the Republic of Texas flag, carpet bagger?

Nah, I'm saving that for the coming civil war.

Update:  Back in the severe soup today, and an enhanced risk (ugh!) but at least it's not overnight:

[SimonBolivar 10957]

Not looking fun for tomorrow, but they are really going all out for Louisiana and Mississippi on Tuesday. 

 

I noticed it's supposed to rain tomorrow morning before the afternoon shit. Is this going to be the usual case where more rain early keeps severe potential down later or does it not mean shit?

[Rip76 4924]

Jeff Lindner latest -

Severe/Flash Flood Threat
 

Severe weather and flash flood threat continues to increase for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday

 

A powerful storm system will move into TX over the next 24 hours brining multiple hazards to the area. Parameters continue to become increasingly favorable for both severe weather and heavy rainfall by Monday afternoon and evening. There were some concerns yesterday as to the degree of capping that may be in place across the warm sector air mass Monday afternoon and also storm mode. Short range guidance is indicating more robust development across the warm sector Monday afternoon with supercell structures increasingly likely. Given very strong shear profiles of 60-70kts over the region all severe modes will be in play including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. There could be a few strong tornadoes, especially for locations north of I-10.

 

SPC has expanded the enhanced risk (3 out of 5) outline to include more of SE TX. Severe threat will begin in the mid afternoon hours on Monday and continue into the late evening hours.

 

Heavy Rainfall: 

While the main synoptic focus of the storm system will be aimed at NE TX with respect to the heaviest rainfall axis, there is increasing potential for high precipitation supercells to develop and train across SE TX Monday afternoon and evening. Surface trough or front will slow over SE TX Monday night and expect the severe threat to gradually shift toward heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding throughout the night. The setup for repeat cell training is concerning with the greatest threat generally along and north of I-10. Favorable low level inflow off the Gulf combined with strong upper level divergence into either  slow moving line or line of supercells raises the flash flood threat.

 

Will increase rainfall amounts to 3-4 inches across the area, but isolated totals could be as higher as 6-7 inches where sustained training develops. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding over urban areas. Street flooding will be the primary threat, but under corridors of excessive rainfall, significant rises on creeks and bayous will be possible. WPC has upgraded a portion of the area into a moderate risk for flash flooding north of the I-10 corridor.  

 

Monday afternoon and evening will be active over the area. Have ways to receive warnings.
 

 

[Rip76 4924]

One more update.

Tornado and hail probabilities for tomorrow afternoon/evening. A few strong tornadoes (EF2+) is possible in the black hatched area.

Very large hail (golfball+) possible in the black hatched area around the Brazos Valley and I-35 corridor
 

 

[miguelito 11250]

So should I plant tomatoes today or wait till after the storms go around me?

[InkaUtexas 25855]

7 minutes ago, miguelito said:

So should I plant tomatoes today or wait till after the storms go around me?

plant them deep. 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

40 minutes ago, miguelito said:

So should I plant tomatoes today or wait till after the storms go around me?

I planted two blackberry plants on tuesday and my cilantro is just starting to sprout, sorry for causing all the hellfire guys.