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2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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utee94

utee94 15,811

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

Lamar blocked at 9th - in front of Shoal Creek Saloon.  I hope there was ample rain above the Highland Lakes.

Some but not enough.  Lake Travis recharge zone hasn't gotten much.  Buchanan and the others got some decent rain but it's soaking in and not running off.

Now that all of those areas have been primed with rain, if they got hit with ANOTHER heavy downpour within the next couple of days,  then we'd probably see at least some modest increases in lake levels.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40,832

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Some but not enough.  Lake Travis recharge zone hasn't gotten much.  Buchanan and the others got some decent rain but it's soaking in and not running off.

Now that all of those areas have been primed with rain, if they got hit with ANOTHER heavy downpour within the next couple of days,  then we'd probably see at least some modest increases in lake levels.

A 12” or 15” deluge in the Travis recharge watershed would make it rise what…. 10 feet? 15 feet?

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Posted
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8 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

AccurateTartDrake-max-1mb.gif

Pics were a fast flowing White Rock Creek that clearly had breached with some silt/debris but was back in line by the lunch workout hour. Then I got this:

image.thumb.png.17a59c376694f69614ae4f919da49b7b.png

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

Posted
Posted

Update:

Yeomans (KXAN) put it well tonight:  next 2-3 days is a "sloppy" forecast.

That's because rain, and lots of it, is still very much in the picture.  There's a slow-moving disturbance leaving a weak front behind it.  But, that front's still potent enough to do what it did today for 95% of us in ATX.   But he problem is that no one can really tell where the front will park - where it does, underneath it, gobs of rain.  It moved through Dallas yesterday, Austin and east today, but now it can stall and even move back north - or more south.  That's the slop.

Still, another little disturbance is coming into the picture and it'll interact with that front.  The result:  high chances of rain (>70%) the next 2 days.  Much of it is gone tonight, but don't get cozy - models are showing a thunderstorm outbreak 3-4 a.m. right in the ATX area.  Even if that fizzles, it'll certainly whip back up tomorrow.  Widespread flooding is still not out of the picture, never mind the flash flooding (Shoal Creek today had it's 4th highest crest - EVER! - in less than an hour from essentially being a rock bed!).

I'll come back to try and give a better idea tomorrow where the rain falls, as the sun heats up and shows the trigger point  plus with the possitility of more flooding, I'll try to stay on top of it.  ironically, 50 miles one way or another won't get squat.  But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie. 

Longer range, the end of August is more like the end of April, and September is shaping up to start cool and wet.  If the big heat comes back, it'll have to do it well into the first week of Sept.

We might get one of our top 10, even close to #1, rainiest August's ever.

Bet you didn't think that would happen 2 weeks ago.  Weather, she be funky an' shit.

More later.

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texasdago

texasdago 7,570

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:

Yeomans (KXAN) put it well tonight:  next 2-3 days is a "sloppy" forecast.

That's because rain, and lots of it, is still very much in the picture.  There's a slow-moving disturbance leaving a weak front behind it.  But, that front's still potent enough to do what it did today for 95% of us in ATX.   But he problem is that no one can really tell where the front will park - where it does, underneath it, gobs of rain.  It moved through Dallas yesterday, Austin and east today, but now it can stall and even move back north - or more south.  That's the slop.

Still, another little disturbance is coming into the picture and it'll interact with that front.  The result:  high chances of rain (>70%) the next 2 days.  Much of it is gone tonight, but don't get cozy - models are showing a thunderstorm outbreak 3-4 a.m. right in the ATX area.  Even if that fizzles, it'll certainly whip back up tomorrow.  Widespread flooding is still not out of the picture, never mind the flash flooding (Shoal Creek today had it's 4th highest crest - EVER! - in less than an hour from essentially being a rock bed!).

I'll come back to try and give a better idea tomorrow where the rain falls, as the sun heats up and shows the trigger point  plus with the possitility of more flooding, I'll try to stay on top of it.  ironically, 50 miles one way or another won't get squat.  But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie. 

Longer range, the end of August is more like the end of April, and September is shaping up to start cool and wet.  If the big heat comes back, it'll have to do it well into the first week of Sept.

We might get one of our top 10, even close to #1, rainiest August's ever.

Bet you didn't think that would happen 2 weeks ago.  Weather, she be funky an' shit.

More later.

Funk GIFs | Tenor

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hornian

hornian 5,212

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

LCRA is showing 2.66" just up the road.  Our back yard (wet weather "creek") was roaring, I'm more inclined to believe your number.

Need much more.

I drove home during the storm. At the first bridge over Bull Creek (Spicewood Springs) it was kind of raining. By the second bridge, it was raining hard, and by the third it was pouring, but over the low water crossing it was sheets of rain. But if the band hit just right, I'd actually believe the gauge had half the rain that our streets did, because further North on 360 it was not raining nearly as hard. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,224

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Update:

Not much from my last post.. but the front has stalled south of us about the I-10 corridor.  They'll get the big rains today.  However, Austin is sort of on the north end of this zone, so (as we've seen already today) rain is still likely around a lot of the area, even if not heavy.  No TV weather honk has predicted that the front will move north again (bringing us potentially flooding rains) but that's always a possibility.

There's not a lot out on the radar now beyond what's fallen this morning, but that can be deceiving.  Stuff will pop up as the sun gets going.  

My guess is a cloudy day with only short periods of light/moderate rain.  If the front moves north or we get a lot of lift going, I'll be back.  Otherwise enjoy the fun.  If it stays like this it might not even get much into the 80's, but I think enough sun will pop through that we get near or just over 90°.

And not a 100 in sight for at least 5 more days.  The meteorological season has changed for sure although of course we could easily get hot/dry and over 100 again... but we're done with the marathons.  (Meteorological fall starts Sept. 1).

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Catpfish

Catpfish 618

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Posted

I'm right at 2 inches (TWSS) of rain in the month of August just east of Pflugerville.  It has added zero to my tank, I think my fish are going to have to grow lungs or die.  It's so frustrating because you watch the radar and it's like watching a rerun of 2008 Tech, you keep hoping the ball gets caught and, yet, are always disappointed

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