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2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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jofus

jofus 2,269

Posted
Posted
Tornado on the ground just outside Crockett. This sucker is going to come pretty close to us. It should miss me slightly to the north, but I’m watching close and will wake up the kids and head to a closet in an hour or so if need be. 

Where outside of crockett? Lovelady?
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texasdago

texasdago 7,770

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Sunday before last, I drove back to Austin from West Texas through Llano and it might have looked the driest than I've ever seen it for this time of year -- not a single green blade of grass nor bluebonnet. When I almost got to the S&W hospital on TX-71 outside of Marble Falls, tons of smoke was coming up from the south. I assume it was the Buddy Fire in Blanco County but not sure.

The real tragedy was that it fucked with my sinuses for a couple of days.

Yup. Drove through yesterday. So so dry 

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Armybrat

Armybrat 41,391

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2.7” of rain in two short downpours yesterday evening here in Brushy Creek, with some scattered small hail for the second one after sundown. Winds got up to maybe 35-40 knots, so nothing really bad.

The twister barely missed my youngest son’s Hutto Parke neighborhood, but a number of his neighbors lost a lot of shingles. His own new roof didn’t lose any as far as he could tell

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irishtexan

irishtexan 11,712

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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

 

 

In Longview Park in South Austin there is an old cemetery for the "Bargsley Family" that is surrounded by a tall chain link fence. It's curious because the death date of the mother and the daughter are May 4, 1922. The Bargsley family accounted for six of the 13 casualties caused by the tornado in the picture above. Here's an article:

https://www.austin360.com/story/entertainment/local/2015/08/29/the-mystery-of-the-bargsley-family-plot/10212548007/

One of the quotes in the article speaks to what phdhorn said upthread w/r/t how fortunate we are that the storms didn't manifest 15-20 miles further west, potentially running through downtown or some of the more populated areas in the metro. 

Quote

“In 1922, Austin only had about 20,000 residents,” meteorologist David Barnes told Cox. “If you think what could have happened if that tornado had hit this year, the death rate might have easily been 10 times as great.”

Anyway, this is your tidbit of austin tornado history for the day.

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10,496

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Gotdamnit. My fucking inlaws are in New Orleans with my daughter and supposed to fly back to Austin this afternoon. They're freaking out that their flight is going to be canceled, and they have to be back by tomorrow so they want to drive instead. After watching that 35/45 tornado, I told them we're absolutely not comfortable with that. I'm not enough of a weather guru to know how this storm is going to be for the next few hours. Are planes flying over/around/through this storm? Would they be fine on a flight this evening or are they pretty much stuck until tomorrow? 

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bolverk

bolverk 30,318

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40 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

In Longview Park in South Austin there is an old cemetery for the "Bargsley Family" that is surrounded by a tall chain link fence. It's curious because the death date of the mother and the daughter are May 4, 1922. The Bargsley family accounted for six of the 13 casualties caused by the tornado in the picture above. Here's an article:

https://www.austin360.com/story/entertainment/local/2015/08/29/the-mystery-of-the-bargsley-family-plot/10212548007/

One of the quotes in the article speaks to what phdhorn said upthread w/r/t how fortunate we are that the storms didn't manifest 15-20 miles further west, potentially running through downtown or some of the more populated areas in the metro. 

Anyway, this is your tidbit of austin tornado history for the day.

Funny that you mention that. I've been back there behind those basketball courts and remember seeing those dates on the tombstones and did the same kind of digging. 

From your article, they mention:

On the front page back in 1922, the Statesman listed among the dead: “Miss Ada Bargsley, 46” and “Mrs. John Bargsley, Sr., 89.” The others who died at their home that day were “John Thompson, 26,” “Mrs. Alta Thompson, mother of John Thompson,” “Maria Kinchion, 70,” and, in a sad sign of the times, “Harper, girl, negress, 10.”

At that time, the area to the west was a little farm town that I've seen mentioned as a Freeman's colony. The spelling is different, but this is from the Texas State Historical Assocation:

KINCHEONVILLE, TX. Kincheonville was at a site in what is now southwest Austin, Travis County. It was bordered roughly by present Paisano Trail on the north, Davis Lane on the south, Brodie Lane on the west, and Longview Road on the east. The community was established by Thomas Kincheon in June 1865. Unlike other communities that were predominantly black, Kincheonville also had Hispanics and Anglo settlers. It remained a small farming community until Kincheon's son, Thomas Kincheon II, began to promote its development. Kincheon Subdivision No. 1 opened in 1952, and when this was successful, Kincheon Subdivision No. 2 followed. The Kincheon family moved to East Austin in the 1960s, along with most of the other black families in Austin. Kincheonville has since been absorbed by the city of Austin; several streets that Kincheon named after his children are all that remains of the community.

https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/kincheonville-tx

If you look at Google maps, you can still see the old grid, plus the names of people who I assume were residents or family members. So, the irony that several streets in the subdivisions that were built in the 70s & 80s around old Kincheonville being named after Civil War and antebellum stuff isn't lost on me.

image.png.9765f706cecd8590166cf7c8cff28083.png

 

Edited by bolverk
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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10,496

Posted
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30 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Gotdamnit. My fucking inlaws are in New Orleans with my daughter and supposed to fly back to Austin this afternoon. They're freaking out that their flight is going to be canceled, and they have to be back by tomorrow so they want to drive instead. After watching that 35/45 tornado, I told them we're absolutely not comfortable with that. I'm not enough of a weather guru to know how this storm is going to be for the next few hours. Are planes flying over/around/through this storm? Would they be fine on a flight this evening or are they pretty much stuck until tomorrow? 

@phdhorn Any advice?

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bolverk

bolverk 30,318

Posted
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4 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

@phdhorn Any advice?

Pretty sure they do whatever they can to avoid the worst. Take, for instance, this SWA flight from Orlando to Austin right now flying above their planned altitude to get over the worst of the storm. Flight might get delayed but since it's not late at night, I doubt it'd be cancelled.

Driving through a storm on I-10 in Southern Louisiana sounds like a terrible idea.

image.thumb.png.8431603576f7052bf9dca748e66e4e60.png

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6,225

Posted
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2 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

@phdhorn Any advice?

Not much, as I don't want to predict/zpeak for them. However, if it were me, 5 things to consider.

1) The highest risk area is in Northern Louisiana and Central Mississippi, but New Orleans in the enhanced, so yeah there's a risk. But I think any air delays would be short-lived.

2) As long as a plane isn't trying to take off in the middle of a thunderstorm, they're pretty good about maneuvering around it. That wouldn't bother me flying. Unless there's damage to the airport, most thunderstorm delays are 30 - 60 minutes at worse unless a connection is late. But they probably get home the same night.

3) Zero hour for NOLA airport is roughly 4 - 7 p.m. for the storms to hit. If you know what time they're scheduled to take off, consider that.

4) it wouldn't be worth it to me to try to drive because I don't think the flights will be all that messed up at least to delay overnight or something. But if I were to drive, I would make DAMN SURE that I was nowhere near the long I-10 trestle bridge across the Atchafalaya Basin when I pass under the storms. There's nowhere to go on that and it's the worst place to be. If I knew I'd clear it into SW Louisiana before or afterwards I might do it. No way in this life or the next I'd drive under a severe thunderstorm on that part of i-10 if I could possibly help it.

5) finally I'd have phone apps running and weather channels playing on TV exits planned out just so they can get off the road and away from a storm that might spawn a tornado or hail.

All in all, I'd stay at the airport and wait it out. That's just me.

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Hate

Hate 20,247

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It will also be interesting to see how all of the tornadoes are rated once the NWS releases their report.  I would guess the RR tornado would be an EF1 or possibly an EF2 from watching that drone footage.  I wouldn't have wanted to be in the path of either. 

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SquishMitten

SquishMitten 10,496

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The line must've formed up farther south in the past hour. The last few flights out of New Orleans all headed into the gulf to skirt south of the storm. Now I see their flight is heading east-northeast. Poor kid, looks like they might be flying around the northern edge of the storm. From a few flights earlier that took a similar path, that takes them solidly through Ohio and turns a ~1 hour flight into 3-4 hours.

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