Jump to content

2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
in Daily Texan

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

Posted Images

TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31240

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hate said:


I don’t really know, but that’s a good question. And I was probably overstated the 100%, but the hatched area means that whatever category they are predicting is pretty likely to occur in that area.

I mean it makes sense that they wouldnt black out the whole area according to the "Sig" legend.  And maybe Significant is not on the same statistical scale as the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the cross-cut radar on kxas 5 clearly showed a 1-mile wide debris field at altitude 2 miles north of venus 5 minutes ago following a nasty solid rotation with about 130mph velocity differential

fucker is hitting downtown midlothian this moment

Saw this posted

FPjbZUaWUAE8G_A?format=jpg&name=medium

 

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Saw this posted

FPjbZUaWUAE8G_A?format=jpg&name=medium

 

Yeah, that's an ugly hook right there.  

 

We didn't get shit in Waco area from this.   Not even a drop to dirty the windshield.  Gonna pair well with 97 fucking degrees this afternoon.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Probably only happen with the heat index, but looks like we have a chance to beat the "earliest date for 100 degrees in Austin" by a full month.  And my lazy ass just finally packed up all the freeze materials (blankets, tarps, faucet covers) from a few weeks ago in the garage.  Da fuh? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hate

Hate 20103

Posted
Posted (edited)

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

FPqWZ2VXsAcT7VP?format=jpg&name=small

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

Edited by Hate
Link to comment
Share on other sites
utee94

utee94 15744

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Hate said:

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

FPqWZ2VXsAcT7VP?format=jpg&name=small

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

That looks like an Austin FF special.

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Loop 1604

Loop 1604 227

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Hate said:

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

FPqWZ2VXsAcT7VP?format=jpg&name=small

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

For SA/Hill Country, looks another less-than-ideal set up for any actual precip to miss north, south, or east. La Niña is the worst.

charlie brown lucy GIF by Maudit

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Rather heavy rain here in South Austin.   Started lightly around 3:30a, but just walls of it now with lightning.   Supposed to last for another 90 minutes.  Welcomed reprieve.  High five 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skipper

Skipper 6100

Posted
Posted

Another round of puckering for DFW area the next few days.  F'n hate this time of year.  We've had a couple of close calls with hail already (was hit hard with pocket change hail last month but not big enough for damage and storm last week had some big hail that petered out to hardly anything by the time it crossed 75 into my hood).   While this is all fairly typical, it does seem to me like it's been a bit more active than normal this year.  Of course I probably think that every year when we're in the thick of storm season.

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

It certainly can vary.  I looked at NOAA U.S. data and the last the last 2 Januaries and Februaries (21 & 22) were below to well-below average.  This March was way above, in fact the highest # in U.S. for any March ever (I don't have to tell anyone in Texas that), but last March was the lowest in 50 years.  April is starting out about average (dep. on the source, avg. April tornadoes in U.S. anywhere from about 150-210 or so).  There have been 77 confirmed through the first third of the month. (May is by far the highest month avg. in U.S.).

Keep in mind as well that about 80% of tornadoes are EF-0 or 1.   

Anyway, "this year" might be "this March," but otherwise it's kind of normal if not a bit below for 2022 so far.
 

Edit:  Here in Bee Cave, where it always rains, we got a tenth last night.

Edited by phdhorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Very doubtful N. Austin and south.  Better possibilities N into Dallas and up.

But yeah, I'll let you know.  Depends on whether the cap holds, although Austin is maybe too far south for this round, though we're officially (barely) in the enhanced area. 

Whatever happens will start about noon out west and move east.  Anyone going up to Dallas etc. should keep an eye on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
texasdago

texasdago 7552

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Very doubtful N. Austin and south.  Better possibilities N into Dallas and up.

But yeah, I'll let you know.  Depends on whether the cap holds, although Austin is maybe too far south for this round, though we're officially (barely) in the enhanced area. 

Whatever happens will start about noon out west and move east.  Anyone going up to Dallas etc. should keep an eye on it.

Team south Austin loves seeing that orange north of here #whew

Link to comment
Share on other sites
phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

They're lowering tornado chances in this round because in all likelihood it'd be a fast-moving and thing squall line.  Hail and wind are the main components of this prediction.

The cap is strong over this area, and yesterday it held, which is why storms didn't flare up, not a lot of lift.  Today the cap is still strong, but a little distrubance is going to move up along the dry line and if it's strong enough, will provide the lift to break the cap.  If it does, storms will fire up quickly.

If current cloud cover holds longer through the day, it'll help, but that's not a guarantee.  

My guess again is that most of the severe weather will be Belton and up into Oklahoma.

With that statement, I just put Austin in the bullseye, but I'm stickin' to my story.  Little if any rain/storms for us.  Whatever happens will happen mid afternoon into about 6-7 p.m.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I'll take your word for it, but most of the time when there's a higher risk, we also see a pretty high likelihood of storms.

We’ve gone from 50% at 5-6 this evening to 100% in Waco area.  Looks like this one is happening, and it ain’t gon be gud.   Had a light shower this morning and now the sun is out baking the already humid air.  Gonna have a few point well into the 70’s here pretty quick.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skipper

Skipper 6100

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I'll take your word for it, but most of the time when there's a higher risk, we also see a pretty high likelihood of storms.

I think it's just a different type of event.  Last week we knew a line was forming and everyone would get something.  Severity was just location dependent and whether anything popped out in front of the line.  Today it seems like not widespread but whatever pops will likely be bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...