2022 Rain Thread

[Zepol87 9341]

Raining sideways like a mofo. Sky is looking purple with all the lightning. Sirens going off

Edited April 5, 2022 by Zepol87

[TwiceHorn 32076]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don’t really know, but that’s a good question. And I was probably overstated the 100%, but the hatched area means that whatever category they are predicting is pretty likely to occur in that area.

I mean it makes sense that they wouldnt black out the whole area according to the "Sig" legend.  And maybe Significant is not on the same statistical scale as the other.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

5 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Raining sideways like a mofo. Sky is looking purple with all the lightning. Sirens going off

Yeah, shit.  Looks like you're on the southern edge of a radar-indicated rotation TWarning.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

Seems like it's about time for the Ch5 weather guessers to go live with the radar.  Not sure what the holdup is.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

Well, the severe tstorm warning for parts west of Tarrant expired at 9 and was not renewed.  And that's where all the shit is right now, and NW of the metro.

Yet, there is a warning out around PK, and the metro stays under tornado watch.

[Zepol87 9341]

Tennis ball size hail. Fuck all that shit 

[TwiceHorn 32076]

2 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Tennis ball size hail. Fuck all that shit 

Whoa shit.  Sorry man.

[TexPx 2336]

Tennis ball size hail. Fuck all that shit 

Near downtown Frisco. Sirens went off earlier. No hail just buckets of rain.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

The rotation on the leading edge of that bulge keeps persisting.  Twarning for east of McKinney now.

[Loop 1604 227]

We ain’t getting shit, meanwhile DFW getting pwned. Fire weather should be nice and dicey this week.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

Hard rain, maybe a few pellets of hail.  Minimal wind in nawf central Dallas.

Northern and Southern reaches of the metro getting it a bit.

Only confirmed tornado around Joshua.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

The rotation on the leading edge of that bulge keeps persisting.  Twarning for east of McKinney now.

This bulge?

 

[Hagbard Celine 11226]

the cross-cut radar on kxas 5 clearly showed a 1-mile wide debris field at altitude 2 miles north of venus 5 minutes ago following a nasty solid rotation with about 130mph velocity differential

fucker is hitting downtown midlothian this moment

[atomheartbevo 90641]

11 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the cross-cut radar on kxas 5 clearly showed a 1-mile wide debris field at altitude 2 miles north of venus 5 minutes ago following a nasty solid rotation with about 130mph velocity differential

fucker is hitting downtown midlothian this moment

Saw this posted

 

[Trey3216 15452]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Saw this posted

 

Yeah, that's an ugly hook right there.  

 

We didn't get shit in Waco area from this.   Not even a drop to dirty the windshield.  Gonna pair well with 97 fucking degrees this afternoon.  

[Guest Lobo]

Probably only happen with the heat index, but looks like we have a chance to beat the "earliest date for 100 degrees in Austin" by a full month.  And my lazy ass just finally packed up all the freeze materials (blankets, tarps, faucet covers) from a few weeks ago in the garage.  Da fuh? 

[TwiceHorn 32076]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This bulge?

 

There was a similar bulge north of the Metro.

Looks like there was one tornado NE of the metro, and that one SW of the metro.  Not much confirmed damage in the morning reports.

[Hate 20247]

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Hate

[utee94 16080]

44 minutes ago, Hate said:

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

That looks like an Austin FF special.

[miguelito 11503]

That shit's always a week out.

[texasdago 7770]

People are dragging him for that tweet

[Loop 1604 227]

12 hours ago, Hate said:

One meteorologist I see on some weather forums I follow are watching a potential big storm a week from now.  I would expect that much will change between now and then, but it will be something to keep an eye on. 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?s=20&t=heAVeqsz9Rrv3oGvmVJ83Q

 

For SA/Hill Country, looks another less-than-ideal set up for any actual precip to miss north, south, or east. La Niña is the worst.

[Guest Lobo]

Rather heavy rain here in South Austin.   Started lightly around 3:30a, but just walls of it now with lightning.   Supposed to last for another 90 minutes.  Welcomed reprieve.  High five 

[Dnaguy 12621]

A very brief heavy wind / hail / heavy rain in north SA last night around 11pm-midnight.

Hail woke my ass up.

[miguelito 11503]

That one passed just south of me. I could hear it, smell it, but I got nothing. 

Hopefully it helped with the Camp Bullis fire.

[Moby Ric 2058]

I will take anything to wash this fucking pollen away.

[texasdago 7770]

.35 inches... woot woot

[SquishMitten 10497]

I got nothing, and I didn’t like it

[utee94 16080]

Same here.

 

[South Austin 53222]

It was enough to wash away a good amount of pollen jizz from my neighborhood.  Decent chances of rain later this week.

[Skipper 6411]

Another round of puckering for DFW area the next few days.  F'n hate this time of year.  We've had a couple of close calls with hail already (was hit hard with pocket change hail last month but not big enough for damage and storm last week had some big hail that petered out to hardly anything by the time it crossed 75 into my hood).   While this is all fairly typical, it does seem to me like it's been a bit more active than normal this year.  Of course I probably think that every year when we're in the thick of storm season.

[phdhorn 6225]

It certainly can vary.  I looked at NOAA U.S. data and the last the last 2 Januaries and Februaries (21 & 22) were below to well-below average.  This March was way above, in fact the highest # in U.S. for any March ever (I don't have to tell anyone in Texas that), but last March was the lowest in 50 years.  April is starting out about average (dep. on the source, avg. April tornadoes in U.S. anywhere from about 150-210 or so).  There have been 77 confirmed through the first third of the month. (May is by far the highest month avg. in U.S.).

Keep in mind as well that about 80% of tornadoes are EF-0 or 1.   

Anyway, "this year" might be "this March," but otherwise it's kind of normal if not a bit below for 2022 so far.
 

Edit:  Here in Bee Cave, where it always rains, we got a tenth last night.

Edited April 11, 2022 by phdhorn

[RamjetFDO 10648]

Sudden Onset Lightning and .5" in the Drip ... and two terrified dogs ... resulted in an awesome early morning wakeup.  Caffeine is my best friend right now.

[Moby Ric 2058]

Oh and Fuck this daily tropical storm wind.

[DaysOff 8203]

Super fun landing in.

[NorthLoop 14465]

18 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Super fun landing in.

avatar checks out

[Orange&White 5573]

@phdhorn

 

Let us know as the afternoon progresses if it is really gonna drop boulder sized hail on us.

[phdhorn 6225]

Very doubtful N. Austin and south.  Better possibilities N into Dallas and up.

But yeah, I'll let you know.  Depends on whether the cap holds, although Austin is maybe too far south for this round, though we're officially (barely) in the enhanced area. 

Whatever happens will start about noon out west and move east.  Anyone going up to Dallas etc. should keep an eye on it.

[TwiceHorn 32076]

Super-weird.  SPC has big d in "enhanced," yet NWS has us for 40% chance of storms this afternoon and 30% tonight.  Most of the recent "dire predictions" have come with 90-100% chance.

So, it might rain/storm, but if it does, pepper your angus.

[phdhorn 6225]

Likelihood of severity and POP are not co-related.  Not unusual.

Edited April 12, 2022 by phdhorn

[texasdago 7770]

24 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Very doubtful N. Austin and south.  Better possibilities N into Dallas and up.

But yeah, I'll let you know.  Depends on whether the cap holds, although Austin is maybe too far south for this round, though we're officially (barely) in the enhanced area. 

Whatever happens will start about noon out west and move east.  Anyone going up to Dallas etc. should keep an eye on it.

Team south Austin loves seeing that orange north of here #whew

[phdhorn 6225]

They're lowering tornado chances in this round because in all likelihood it'd be a fast-moving and thing squall line.  Hail and wind are the main components of this prediction.

The cap is strong over this area, and yesterday it held, which is why storms didn't flare up, not a lot of lift.  Today the cap is still strong, but a little distrubance is going to move up along the dry line and if it's strong enough, will provide the lift to break the cap.  If it does, storms will fire up quickly.

If current cloud cover holds longer through the day, it'll help, but that's not a guarantee.  

My guess again is that most of the severe weather will be Belton and up into Oklahoma.

With that statement, I just put Austin in the bullseye, but I'm stickin' to my story.  Little if any rain/storms for us.  Whatever happens will happen mid afternoon into about 6-7 p.m.

[boknowstecmo 221]

The Enhanced orange section cuts right through Austin. Weird. 

Basically, they don't know exactly where storms will pop, or if they'll pop, but if one does it'll become severe with giant hail very quickly. 

[TwiceHorn 32076]

4 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Likelihood of severity and POP are not co-related.  Not unusual.

I'll take your word for it, but most of the time when there's a higher risk, we also see a pretty high likelihood of storms.

[Trey3216 15452]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I'll take your word for it, but most of the time when there's a higher risk, we also see a pretty high likelihood of storms.

We’ve gone from 50% at 5-6 this evening to 100% in Waco area.  Looks like this one is happening, and it ain’t gon be gud.   Had a light shower this morning and now the sun is out baking the already humid air.  Gonna have a few point well into the 70’s here pretty quick.   

[Skipper 6411]

13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I'll take your word for it, but most of the time when there's a higher risk, we also see a pretty high likelihood of storms.

I think it's just a different type of event.  Last week we knew a line was forming and everyone would get something.  Severity was just location dependent and whether anything popped out in front of the line.  Today it seems like not widespread but whatever pops will likely be bad.

[texasdago 7770]

Sun is trying to peek out in S. Austin

[dieucla98 2960]

Mason County just got a severe t-storm watch - is it happening? 

[texasdago 7770]

Ah... so Austin...

[BrickTop 487]

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