2022 Rain Thread

[Brisketexan 106886]

3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Ah... so Austin...

[Brisketexan 106886]

And.....yeesh.  Wife is on the road to N. Texas (McKinney area)....she's just now in Temple, so hitting Dallas area around 6:00.  I'll be keeping an eye on this shit.

[bolverk 30323]

[SimonBolivar 11064]

7 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BrickTop 487]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0458.html


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[phdhorn 6225]

NWS has upped the chances for storms in ATX a bit, threw in a slightly higher chance of tornadoes, but mostly east/northeast of ATX.  Large damaging storms can still be expected here/there Williamson Co. and north into and past Dallas.

Been watching the line, southern end is popcorning up/down, but I expect more development as the dry line is moving into more favorable conditions, and the cap is holding although not strongly.  If those storms start growing on the south end, I'll be back.

I'd say main diff. from this a.m. is storms more likely thru Austin, but even with more severity possible, still scattered in our area.  Still up the 35 corridor is the bullseye.

[Trey3216 15452]

9 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

NWS has upped the chances for storms in ATX a bit, threw in a slightly higher chance of tornadoes, but mostly east/northeast of ATX.  Large damaging storms can still be expected here/there Williamson Co. and north into and past Dallas.

Been watching the line, southern end is popcorning up/down, but I expect more development as the dry line is moving into more favorable conditions, and the cap is holding although not strongly.  If those storms start growing on the south end, I'll be back.

I'd say main diff. from this a.m. is storms more likely thru Austin, but even with more severity possible, still scattered in our area.  Still up the 35 corridor is the bullseye.

Yep, not looking good for Belton to Hillsboro rt now 

[SquishMitten 10497]

Nothing more than a gut feeling, but for some reason I feel like this is one of those storms where we’re not expected to get anything, then all of a sudden we’re getting destroyed

[phdhorn 6225]

Big storm just popping up N. of SAT... that's where the (largely imaginary for now) line is going to form up NE and if possible on us.  Next hour will tell.

Stuff getting nasty up 35 right now.

[Trey3216 15452]

2 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Nothing more than a gut feeling, but for some reason I feel like this is one of those storms where we’re not expected to get anything, then all of a sudden we’re getting destroyed

This storm sucks, we should win convincingly.  

[phdhorn 6225]

47 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Ah... so Austin...

Well, THIS is so Austin, lol...

... but I'm gaining confidence that the donut hole will fill in soon.

 

[SimonBolivar 11064]

10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, not looking good for Belton to Hillsboro rt now 

I have lots of protection here. I'm just waiting on @Brisketexan's wife to come on in and stay for an hour or so until the storm passes.

[Nicole44 22309]

@Brisketexan wife I think likes to be in the wild weather? Maybe?

I am kinda into this site now (in addition to the old ass CORAD one for Texas):

 

[gsoda3 3362]

Were they expecting it to get so sunny this afternoon?

[phdhorn 6225]

Yes.

I'm leaving to meet/eat near Barton Springs with my daughter who's on the way from Dallas back to San Antonio.  Yer on yer own.

Zero hour is now → 7 p.m. or so.  So far the cap is holding around us (ATX), but could bust open.  Storms could form very quickly on top of us.  Good luck, we're all counting on you.

[Brisketexan 106886]

16 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

@Brisketexan wife I think likes to be in the wild weather? Maybe?

I am kinda into this site now (in addition to the old ass CORAD one for Texas):

 

She's already past Carls Corner, so I think she's gonna beat 'em to McKinney.  Then, she can hunker down with her friends.

As for me, I have an appointment I have to walk to and from this evening.  So, that could be fun.

[Biff Tannen 46163]

I have to be driving right about 6.  Am I gonna die?

[Nicole44 22309]

Cool! My Dark Sky App is going batshit. Lol.

[Nicole44 22309]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I have to be driving right about 6.  Am I gonna die?

@phdhorn left our asses. Because he has shit to do. Be careful driving. 

[jimmyjazz 47149]

Dammit, I'm gonna have to tune into Jim Spencer's weather boner broadcast, aren't I?

[BrickTop 487]

Looks like the CINH dropped to almost non existent on the last sounding near DFW area and there’s a ton of CAPE at all levels, if those storms get there the environment is very primed.


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[Nicole44 22309]

This is going to be a crazy night. Geez…

[Brisketexan 106886]

I HATE it when there's no CINH and tons of CAPE.  That's the WORST.

What is it, again?

[CleverNickname 1345]

3 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Looks like the CINH dropped to almost non existent on the last sounding near DFW area and there’s a ton of CAPE at all levels, if those storms get there the environment is very primed.


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You made that up, right? 

[BrickTop 487]

You made that up, right? 

CiNH = convection inhibition or inhibitors, Cape is convective available potential energy over 1500 is good enough for supercell development these are reading 2-3k,

[Biff Tannen 46163]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I HATE it when there's no CINH and tons of CAPE.  That's the WORST.

What is it, again?

Couch grass AND cramp bark?

[BrickTop 487]

I HATE it when there's no CINH and tons of CAPE.  That's the WORST.
What is it, again?

Lot of energy, nothing inhibiting it going upward(strengthening)

[BrickTop 487]

And tornado warning near Ft Hood

[MissingInAction 25556]

Ain't gona be no got damn rain in no got damn austin ya dumb mutha fuckas!

[SimonBolivar 11064]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Couch grass AND cramp bark?

 

 

I was going to make a Larry David in a cape joke, but yours is waaaay better.

[SimonBolivar 11064]

6 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

And tornado warning near Ft Hood

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mother Neff State Park around 540 PM CDT.
  McGregor around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Oglesby.
 

 

That is less than ideal.

[BrickTop 487]

Also I believe and Phd can correct me if I’m wrong but storms can and do break through the capping inversion and when they do they tend to be strong and rapidly intensifying.

[SimonBolivar 11064]

https://www.kwtx.com/2022/04/12/watch-live-severe-weather-coverage-central-texas/

 

 

Live look at Flat, which just had to be evacuated for a fire a couple weeks back.

[BrickTop 487]

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mother Neff State Park around 540 PM CDT.
  McGregor around 545 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Oglesby.
 
 
That is less than ideal.

[BrickTop 487]

Watch your butts tornado on the ground

[Nicole44 22309]

5 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Also I believe and Phd can correct me if I’m wrong but storms can and do break through the capping inversion and when they do they tend to be strong and rapidly intensifying.

You have to be the one to hold the line tonite. Phd said we are on our own because he’s got shit to do. 

[BrickTop 487]

That storm just to the south of it is rotating too just outside Temple


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[BrickTop 487]

You have to be the one to hold the line tonite. Phd said we are on our own because he’s got shit to do. 

Lol I’m nowhere near PHD just something I like and read a lot about im good with the basics That degree is very hard and requires a lot of math and im not going to OU for school even if they’re by far the best at it


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[BrickTop 487]

Tornado warning Florence radar indicated


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[BrickTop 487]

And another just south both radar only for now


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[South Austin 53222]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

This storm sucks, we should win convincingly.  

We won’t lose, we’ll just run out of forcefield.

[SimonBolivar 11064]

Every damn time "If you are in Jarrell..."

[BrickTop 487]

[BrickTop 487]

Weird never seen the black line like that before, must be bad

[Pam Cummings 9868]

Huge tornado on kxan

[BrickTop 487]

[ztejas 44226]

7 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

 

Name checks out. 

[Skipper 6411]

This certainly looks like a lot more than the "40% coverage" that was projected for North Texas.   Unless this breaks up somehow don't see who is missing this completely.

[BrickTop 487]

Huge tornado on kxan

Looks like a rotating funnel for now but it’s huge if it touches down it’s gonna be significant

[BrickTop 487]

Nvm looks like it’s touching down now