2022 Rain Thread

[phdhorn 6224]

17 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Why don't you tell us on Saturday night after the Texas Football Spring Game?  I figure we'll need something to lift our spirits.

Why? You're going to hear that the quarterbacks were throwing pinpoint lasers, the receivers were moving faster than the speed of sound, and the defense was graphite solid. And that even though a few small things have to come together, this team just looks like it could be the one too make noise around New Year's. Everybody's going to be ecstatic.

You know, like they have the last 11 years after the game.

[South Austin 52037]

10 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Why? You're going to hear that the quarterbacks were throwing pinpoint lasers, the receivers were moving faster than the speed of sound, and the defense was graphite solid. And that even though a few small things have to come together, this team just looks like it could be the one too make noise around New Year's. Everybody's going to be ecstatic.

You know, like they have the last 11 years after the game.

So, we’re getting rain?

[phdhorn 6224]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

So, we’re getting rain?

Yes but only at the North location, and by the night shift.

[Amos Moses 795]

For those into drought discussion (which I am, oh I guess a little bit, maybe), pretty good articles in lake Travis/Westlake Community Impact this week. I think well worth the read.
https://communityimpact.com/austin/lake-travis-westlake/environment/2022/04/14/climatologist-says-future-megadrought-could-harm-lake-travis-area/
I'd have a lot more to say on the upcoming summer but I'll skip it - for now.

“Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. “Low [lake] levels will probably happen again sometime, but it depends on both the weather and on water use. There’s no telling when it will happen again.”

Solid forecasting.

[Amos Moses 795]

For those into drought discussion (which I am, oh I guess a little bit, maybe), pretty good articles in lake Travis/Westlake Community Impact this week. I think well worth the read.
https://communityimpact.com/austin/lake-travis-westlake/environment/2022/04/14/climatologist-says-future-megadrought-could-harm-lake-travis-area/
I'd have a lot more to say on the upcoming summer but I'll skip it - for now.

“Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. “Low [lake] levels will probably happen again sometime, but it depends on both the weather and on water use. There’s no telling when it will happen again.”

Solid forecasting.

[phdhorn 6224]

Boy, you can say that again!

This is slightly cooler and tainier than predicted. I actually have puddles on my patio and driveway. Time to build an ark.

[phdhorn 6224]

Boy, you can say that again!

This is slightly cooler and rainier than predicted. I actually have puddles on my patio and driveway. Time to build an ark.

[phdhorn 6224]

The site is double dealing. Borkish.

[Updawg 2260]

Pretty sure PHD is telling us we are fucked

[Updawg 2260]

Pretty sure PHD is telling us we are fucked

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

I washed my car yesterday. You're welcome.

[phdhorn 6224]

We are not fooked.  Very good chance of rain esp. on Monday.  Good rain.

You mean the summer?  Oh, of course we're probably fooked.  I'm jes' talkin' bout next week.

[NorthLoop 14071]

I could be wrong, but wasn't last summer also predicted to be dry? 

[texasdago 7550]

My back yard was a N A S T Y tree sex pollen mess this morning.  Gross.

 

Please please 

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

13 hours ago, Amos Moses said:

“Texas isn’t in a megadrought right now, but one is always possible,” he said. “Low [lake] levels will probably happen again sometime, but it depends on both the weather and on water use. There’s no telling when it will happen again.”

Solid forecasting.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it will happen again this summer. 

[miguelito 11204]

Medina Lake is already less than 20% full.  It's April.

[Hate 20102]

I could be wrong, but wasn't last summer also predicted to be dry? 

So I went back and looked and you are correct. April, May and June of 21 were predicted to be warmer and drier than average.

[Hate 20102]

It's almost as if these droughts are cyclical.

[clapclapclap 9000]

So if we want a real, helpful infrastructure project, why not a water pipeline to end ag and urban droughts in most of the western states?  Desalination plants in Texas, a network of pipelines/?aquifers? to perhaps central Colorado so it can feed the western Colorado, Rio Grande, Pecos, TX Colorado, Brazos, Red, Arkansas, and Platte River watersheds.  Solving the water issues for CA, NV, UT, CO, NE, MO, and every state south of them.  Guaranteed capacity for full planting allocations every year, no more drought restrictions on residents, full reservoirs, and optimal stream flows to satisfy environmentalists (though by nature the activists will never be satisfied.  But can help with reducing court challenges to future projects across the board.)  No more wasting valuable land by building new lakes and the environmental impacts of them.  The Gulf of Mexico becomes the reservoir with the capacity to handle all future growth.

Yes, that's a hell of a lot of pumping to reach the western Colorado and the Front Range cities, so short term perhaps not cost effective.  But ultimately would provide national ag security and remove a huge growth issue for western cities.  (Of note, western cities and suburbs are usually much more efficient, they tend to develop more contiguous and densely compared to back east.  Saw a stat years ago that DFW was 3 times as densely developed as Atlanta.)  No more poor crops because of drought, only have to worry about the years with too much rain.  Long term has the potential to open up more land for ag use if at some point in the future our demand requires it, so a national security guarantee.

Not sure how much of pipeline capacity could be reduced by shifting reservoir allocations or if it is possible to fill near ends of some aquifers and increase pumping from the far ends.  I don't know the flows, but seems like there would be a way to refill the Ogallala aquifer.  That could allow for reallocations and perhaps other gap pipelines to additional watersheds or aquifers that might benefit all the way up to the Dakotas.  

A long-term Fed project that wouldn't have a short term increase in inflation, because the planning and enviro review process would take many years.  Would need federal coordination and partial funding, but could figure out a formula for taxing future development in the affected states to repay the feds.  Heck, capture the reduced ag insurance costs from removal of the drought threat.

The US doesn't have a long term drought problem, it's just an issue of cost and political will.  I'm not the first to propose this.  We can choose to start now, or keep kicking the can down the road.

Edited April 21, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Bateshorn 9882]

3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So if we want a real, helpful infrastructure project, why not a water pipeline to end ag and urban droughts in most of the western states?  Desalination plants in Texas, a pipeline to perhaps central Colorado so it can feed the western Colorado, Rio Grande, Pecos, TX Colorado, Brazos, Red, Arkansas, and Platte River watersheds.  Solving the water issues for CA, NV, UT, CO, NE, MO, and every state south of them.  Guaranteed capacity for full planting allocations every year, no more drought restrictions on residents, full reservoirs, and optimal stream flows to satisfy environmentalists (though by nature the activists will never be satisfied.  But can help with reducing court challenges to future projects across the board.)

Yes, that's a hell of a lot of pumping to reach the western Colorado and the Front Range cities, so short term perhaps not cost effective.  But ultimately would provide national ag security and remove a huge growth issue for western cities.  (Of note, western cities and suburbs are usually much more efficient, they tend to develop more contiguous and densely compared to back east.  Saw a stat years ago that DFW was 3 times as densely developed as Atlanta.)  No more poor crops because of drought, only have to worry about the years with too much rain.  Long term has the potential to open up more land for ag use if at some point in the future our demand requires it, so a national security guarantee.

Not sure how much of pipeline capacity could be reduced by shifting reservoir allocations or if it is possible to fill near ends of some aquifers and increase pumping from the far ends.  I don't know the flows, but seems like there would be a way to refill the Ogallala aquifer.  That could allow for reallocations and perhaps other pipeline connectors to other watersheds or aquifers that might benefit all the way up to the Dakotas.  

A long-term Fed project that wouldn't have a short term increase in inflation, because the planning and enviro review process would take many years.  Would need federal coordination and partial funding, but could figure out a formula for taxing future development in the affected states to repay the feds.  Heck, capture the reduced ag insurance costs from removal of the drought threat.

The US doesn't have a long term drought problem, it's just an issue of cost and political will.  I'm not the first to propose this.  We can choose to start now, or keep kicking the can down the road.

Have you met Americans and their feeling about taxes?

[mchookem 16095]

Bill Maher did a 'New Rules' bit on that idea last summer during the TN floods... basically that the eastern states were drowning and the western ones were dying of thirst, and we could build a thousand miles of oil pipeline, why not same for water?

well... one of those benefits everybody and one benefits corporations, sooo... 🙄

[Spaulding Smails 1551]

6 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

So if we want a real, helpful infrastructure project, why not a water pipeline to end ag and urban droughts in most of the western states?  Desalination plants in Texas, a network of pipelines/?aquifers? to perhaps central Colorado so it can feed the western Colorado, Rio Grande, Pecos, TX Colorado, Brazos, Red, Arkansas, and Platte River watersheds.  Solving the water issues for CA, NV, UT, CO, NE, MO, and every state south of them.  Guaranteed capacity for full planting allocations every year, no more drought restrictions on residents, full reservoirs, and optimal stream flows to satisfy environmentalists (though by nature the activists will never be satisfied.  But can help with reducing court challenges to future projects across the board.)  No more wasting valuable land by building new lakes and the environmental impacts of them.  The Gulf of Mexico becomes the reservoir with the capacity to handle all future growth.

Yes, that's a hell of a lot of pumping to reach the western Colorado and the Front Range cities, so short term perhaps not cost effective.  But ultimately would provide national ag security and remove a huge growth issue for western cities.  (Of note, western cities and suburbs are usually much more efficient, they tend to develop more contiguous and densely compared to back east.  Saw a stat years ago that DFW was 3 times as densely developed as Atlanta.)  No more poor crops because of drought, only have to worry about the years with too much rain.  Long term has the potential to open up more land for ag use if at some point in the future our demand requires it, so a national security guarantee.

Not sure how much of pipeline capacity could be reduced by shifting reservoir allocations or if it is possible to fill near ends of some aquifers and increase pumping from the far ends.  I don't know the flows, but seems like there would be a way to refill the Ogallala aquifer.  That could allow for reallocations and perhaps other gap pipelines to additional watersheds or aquifers that might benefit all the way up to the Dakotas.  

A long-term Fed project that wouldn't have a short term increase in inflation, because the planning and enviro review process would take many years.  Would need federal coordination and partial funding, but could figure out a formula for taxing future development in the affected states to repay the feds.  Heck, capture the reduced ag insurance costs from removal of the drought threat.

The US doesn't have a long term drought problem, it's just an issue of cost and political will.  I'm not the first to propose this.  We can choose to start now, or keep kicking the can down the road.

I'm no engineer and I'm about as Libertarian as they come, but that saying that "future wars will be fought over water" is probably pretty darn true.  As a voter, I would never vote for an interstate highway system.  But, despite its maintenance flaws and all the issues it created (segregation, corruption, environmental impacts), it is one of our country's bright spots and we all benefit from it.  

Seems like affordable desalination and significant water pipeline infrastructure is something that could turn the tables.

[CleverNickname 1291]

We would have to pump to Vegas, just to the continental divide, right? So like, to Silver City NM. 

[Brisketexan 104465]

11 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

So if we want a real, helpful infrastructure project, why not a water pipeline to end ag and urban droughts in most of the western states?  Desalination plants in Texas, a network of pipelines/?aquifers? to perhaps central Colorado so it can feed the western Colorado, Rio Grande, Pecos, TX Colorado, Brazos, Red, Arkansas, and Platte River watersheds.  Solving the water issues for CA, NV, UT, CO, NE, MO, and every state south of them.  Guaranteed capacity for full planting allocations every year, no more drought restrictions on residents, full reservoirs, and optimal stream flows to satisfy environmentalists (though by nature the activists will never be satisfied.  But can help with reducing court challenges to future projects across the board.)  No more wasting valuable land by building new lakes and the environmental impacts of them.  The Gulf of Mexico becomes the reservoir with the capacity to handle all future growth.

Yes, that's a hell of a lot of pumping to reach the western Colorado and the Front Range cities, so short term perhaps not cost effective.  But ultimately would provide national ag security and remove a huge growth issue for western cities.  (Of note, western cities and suburbs are usually much more efficient, they tend to develop more contiguous and densely compared to back east.  Saw a stat years ago that DFW was 3 times as densely developed as Atlanta.)  No more poor crops because of drought, only have to worry about the years with too much rain.  Long term has the potential to open up more land for ag use if at some point in the future our demand requires it, so a national security guarantee.

Not sure how much of pipeline capacity could be reduced by shifting reservoir allocations or if it is possible to fill near ends of some aquifers and increase pumping from the far ends.  I don't know the flows, but seems like there would be a way to refill the Ogallala aquifer.  That could allow for reallocations and perhaps other gap pipelines to additional watersheds or aquifers that might benefit all the way up to the Dakotas.  

A long-term Fed project that wouldn't have a short term increase in inflation, because the planning and enviro review process would take many years.  Would need federal coordination and partial funding, but could figure out a formula for taxing future development in the affected states to repay the feds.  Heck, capture the reduced ag insurance costs from removal of the drought threat.

The US doesn't have a long term drought problem, it's just an issue of cost and political will.  I'm not the first to propose this.  We can choose to start now, or keep kicking the can down the road.

Why not done?  Because $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.   And I could type that dollar sign a few more times and not even come close to hitting it.

Desalination -- incredibly expensive.  To desal the volume you're talking about, SUPER exepensive.

A pipeline (really, would take more than one as it branches out) of the necessary length -- incredibly expensive.  The condemnation/land acquisition cost alone would be staggering.

A pipeline of the requisite diameter -- beyond incredibly expensive.  Truly, we'd have to fabricate a whole new size of pipe, never built before, and/or lay 3-4 of those pipes alongside each other to make it multiple pipelines along the same route to transfer the necessary amount of water.

Pumping costs for that volume of water -- again, a lot.

We're talking a project that would run well into the trillions of dollars.  Then, lay the political issues on top of it - say it runs from Corpus Christi to the continental divide, and serves areas to the west of the divide via gravity.  Who gets to siphon off how much of the yield?  Do Midland/Odessa get some?  Albuquerque?  Southern Colorado?  Utah?  Does California get some as it runs downhill?  

It would be the most expensive, most complex, most politically treacherous project in human history.  And all of that said, it's not to say that it can't/shouldn't happen at some point in time.  But it is saying that the level of political will to do it is going to have to be about 100X what it is today to make it happen.  We aren't even close to there.

[phdhorn 6224]

Add the fact that desalinization is one of the most polluting, environmentally disruptive things you can do, both in energy/waste needed to work the process, and even more the aftermath - what do you do with the filtrates?

None of these are necessarily permanent roadblocks to doing it, but the technology has to be greatly improved to account for it.

No way in this life or the next a desalinization plant using seawater would be feasible on a large scale, but possibly a Texas-only (or for any locale of a much smaller size) could be developed.  The great majority of desals work with brackish water, which is far less expensive and wasteful to de-salt than seawater.

Probably the most successful one in the States serves San Diego and the lower Cal coast.  But it's only a portion and is pretty expensive (look up property values in SD).  L.A. is never going to be able to do it with current technology, at least more than an adjunct source - 100 years later, they're still getting their water the way they did in the Gilded Age - enormously long water duct systems from the north.

I think the most reasonable solution is to build a de-sal plant down on the coast and pipe it as far as municipal water sites in the large cities, and let them do the rest.  But not sure it would work after a certain distance.  The reason you hear about successful projects like most of Israel and some places in that locale are simple - the distances involved and scope of the de-sal (i.e. # of people served) is small (Israel e.g. has about 6m people).

Some day, something will happen to change this I think, but for now, probably not gonna happen over more than a municipal or small regional scale.

[Blotto 23418]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Why not done?  Because $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$.   And I could type that dollar sign a few more times and not even come close to hitting it.

Desalination -- incredibly expensive.  To desal the volume you're talking about, SUPER exepensive.

A pipeline (really, would take more than one as it branches out) of the necessary length -- incredibly expensive.  The condemnation/land acquisition cost alone would be staggering.

A pipeline of the requisite diameter -- beyond incredibly expensive.  Truly, we'd have to fabricate a whole new size of pipe, never built before, and/or lay 3-4 of those pipes alongside each other to make it multiple pipelines along the same route to transfer the necessary amount of water.

Pumping costs for that volume of water -- again, a lot.

We're talking a project that would run well into the trillions of dollars.  Then, lay the political issues on top of it - say it runs from Corpus Christi to the continental divide, and serves areas to the west of the divide via gravity.  Who gets to siphon off how much of the yield?  Do Midland/Odessa get some?  Albuquerque?  Southern Colorado?  Utah?  Does California get some as it runs downhill?  

It would be the most expensive, most complex, most politically treacherous project in human history.  And all of that said, it's not to say that it can't/shouldn't happen at some point in time.  But it is saying that the level of political will to do it is going to have to be about 100X what it is today to make it happen.  We aren't even close to there.

Lotta complex issues identified in that post. Someone should take a look at it, and start prioritizing federal funding to overcome many of those hurdles. Maybe we can get to it right after we figure out how to push through a couple more rounds of tax cuts.

[crash_davis 23078]

On 4/20/2022 at 10:11 AM, Pescado_Rojo said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it will happen again this summer. 

Just got an email that our marina on Lake Travis is moving the docks into the main lake from the cove. Hello 2014. I hoped that we wouldn't see this shit again but here we are. Didn't even take 10 years.

[SquishMitten 10395]

On 4/18/2022 at 4:30 PM, Blotto said:

I vaguely remember that now you bring it up. Found the following https://www.lcra.org/news/update-on-the-arbuckle-reservoir/ 

I dont know what the Rice farmers get these days, but in 2011 they received about 5X that amount out of the highland lakes. 

Still seems like a waste to me, but stupid shit is kind of our specialty in this state. 

So at a bare minimum, it reduces their use by 20%. But the reservoir would presumably receive at least some new inflow, so it would be more than that. Either way, while it doesn't entirely fix the problem, it does mike a sizable difference. And as you note, that's better than what normally happens in these here parts

[South Austin 52037]

It be raining nice in Brentwood right now.

[South Austin 52037]

Aaaaaaand we're done.

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Aaaaaaand we're done.

That’s what your mom said after we finished last night and heard another knock on the door 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

That’s what your mom said after we finished last night and heard another knock on the door 

People knock on her door?

[South Austin 52037]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

People knock on her door?

It's called respect.

[Hpara759 1777]

anybody keep up with the Arbuckle Reservoir?....how is that project working out?....now if we could pump overflow from it to say...2 miles SE of Ballinger into the Colorado River that would quench a lot of folks thirst.

[ztejas 43244]

Looking for rain today.

[Biff Tannen 45477]

Got about 10 minutes worth in Hyde Park.  Already dry again.

[texasdago 7550]

Got drizzled on during a lunchtime hike.  Very traumatizing.  

[Hate 20102]

Watch your cornholes in the panhandle today.

[Hate 20102]

A little hope for the next week.  The forecast is trending wetter, like your mom.

[miguelito 11204]

If I've said it once, I've said it 1,000 times.

 

[Steel Shank 9405]

That’s what your mom said after we finished last night and heard another knock on the door 

Buddy of mine had this chick he’d visit after the bars closed for a quickie. He gets there one night and waits on her couch while some other dude was finishing up.

/csb

[utee94 15742]

35 minutes ago, Hate said:

A little hope for the next week.  The forecast is trending wetter, like your mom.

The Force Field laughs at such projections.

[jimmyjazz 45513]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

The Force Field laughs at such projections.

I fixed your map:

[phdhorn 6224]

That's an accurate fix, because it doesn't cover over Bee Cave, where it rains all the time, and what we're going to get 2 inches on Monday.

I'm thinking this one will definitely get most of us pretty wet.

[utee94 15742]

Just now, phdhorn said:

That's an accurate fix, because it doesn't cover over Bee Cave, where it rains all the time, and what we're going to get 2 inches on Monday.

I'm thinking this one will definitely get most of us pretty wet.

You can think in one hand and shit in the other... well, or something...

[hookem2010 2594]

Get your binocs ready, fellas. The migrant songbirds are going to be dripping from the trees as abundantly as the rain drops come Tuesday morning.

[Homercles 10205]

Maybe it’ll shut up the asshole chirping outside my bedroom window all night.  

[Deej 76511]

On 4/21/2022 at 12:36 PM, crash_davis said:

Just got an email that our marina on Lake Travis is moving the docks into the main lake from the cove. Hello 2014. I hoped that we wouldn't see this shit again but here we are. Didn't even take 10 years.

There's so many straws being put into Travis now I don't think it matters how much rain we get. 

[NorthLoop 14071]

This is starting to look like a big tease for us.

[hookem2010 2594]

Dry here in 78752. In my 18 months back in Austin, I've learned to push back the predicted arrival of storms by 12 hours, if they occur at all.