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2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

Posted
Posted

On a positive note, maybe this godawful weather will slow down people moving here and perhaps make a few leave.

I can see why people might pay a gazillion $ to buy a place in coastal California. The weather and scenery can’t be beat. But to keep flocking here with the skyrocketing real estate prices and the 100 year droughts that happen every 3 years makes no sense to me.

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boknowstecmo

boknowstecmo 216

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

On a positive note, maybe this godawful weather will slow down people moving here and perhaps make a few leave.

I can see why people might pay a gazillion $ to buy a place in coastal California. The weather and scenery can’t be beat. But to keep flocking here with the skyrocketing real estate prices and the 100 year droughts that happen every 3 years makes no sense to me.

I can understand this line of thinking, but California is literally running out of water. We're not that bad off yet.

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

Posted
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21 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

I can understand this line of thinking, but California is literally running out of water. We're not that bad off yet.

There's no way these fucksticks are moving here in droves because they think our water policy/situation is (marginally) better.  Putting that aside, central Texas will be in water crisis mode if these weather and migration patterns continue.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
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On 5/8/2022 at 8:45 PM, bschoolprof said:

There's no way these fucksticks are moving here in droves because they think our water policy/situation is (marginally) better.  Putting that aside, central Texas will be in water crisis mode if these weather and migration patterns continue.  

Yeah, people seem to be forgetting that the more people we have moving into this area, combined with shitty/dry weather, we aren't that far off from water problems ourselves.  And people bitch here bitch a lot when they can't water their fucking lawns

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted
On 5/8/2022 at 8:45 PM, bschoolprof said:

There's no way these fucksticks are moving here in droves because they think our water policy/situation is (marginally) better.  Putting that aside, central Texas will be in water crisis mode if these weather and migration patterns continue.  

Elon will invent powdered water.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, people seem to be forgetting that the more people we have moving into this area, combined with shitty/dry weather, we aren't that far off from water problems ourselves.  And people bitch here bitch a lot when they can't water their fucking lawns

We just need to find a way to harness the Houston bowl flooding and distribute that water elsewhere every year.   

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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We're moving (as usual) into a late May pattern of rainier (didn't say "really rainy") weather.  The big high that parked over us in May (not unusual for that, except the degree of heat of course was a never-before) is finally moving SE and E.  Will we have summer weather which means the high will shortly re-strengthen and sit on us again?  Too early to tell, but not for at least another week.

With the high gone, the lows will swing south and although probably not drench us, put some rain here/there, enough to green things up. 

I said it before, and I'll say it again - the weather in the spring doesn't necessarily foretell the weather in the summer.  I have no idea how bad the summer will be (nor really does anyone else except maybe the CPC, and they can only use past data to roll the dice).  Last year we had a dry spring and then June went nuts into August, one of the cooler/rainier summers in the past 25 years or so.

I don't expect that this year.  In fact it could get bad, well duh.  But don't know.  Hopefully if any rain can re-wet and re-cool the ground and keep June temps moderate. (Thankfully this beatdown high hit while the stuff was still green, mitigating the temps, that why we "surprisingly" haven't hit 100° yet, despite numerous predictions by now - and we won't probably until Friday, which is almost certain - then the cool-off).

Yeah this has the potential to shape up like a 2011 inferno summer, no doubt (though there were differences between now and 2011 springs).  But I remain cautiously optimistic that it might not be so bad.

And if it is, maybe those frickin' Calis will move out.  That would be the best thing to happen from this.  Stay tuned.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

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5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here is the latest GFS model (American).  It's still too far out to know exactly what will happen, but the models keep on trending wetter and wetter...like your mom. 

file.php?id=19036&mode=view

Need the purple to shift west about 70-90 miles, and things will be ideal for everyone.   

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Hate

Hate 20102

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Posted (edited)

The model is accumulation for the next 10 days.  The location and total accumulation can and will change between now and then.  The good thing is that the models are becoming consistent in showing widespread heavy rainfall in Texas over the next 10 days...but to your point, 100 miles west would be perfect for those 13 inch totals.  That would fill up all the lakes.  Like I said earlier in this thread, it seems like we are overdue for a Memorial Day flood.  It's been about 6 years since the last one. 

The NWS is seeing it as well.

vLrR0j4.thumb.png.355311e1a4d6d362255b83362fdf0b31.png

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89362

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

My son's getting married on Saturday so I hope the rain holds off until evening which it's supposed to. Everything's indoors, but just make it after 6:00. Current forecast is right around dinner time, peaking after dark.

Thanks to your son, we will get a lot of rain, so thank him for his sacrifice.

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