2022 Rain Thread

[Hate 20102]

East of I-35  and north of I-10 probably won't get a drop, but the models are trending westward. The earlier models had most of the rain in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  They have been gradually shifting south and west over the last few days.  We'll see, but most likely the Houston area will get 100 inches of rain and the Hill Country will get nothing...and like it.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Hate

[Loop 1604 227]

Those precip maps look perfect to disappoint everyone along and west of 35 with yet another a last minute shift east or NE (more progressive).

That’s been the trend all spring…I think we’re turbofucked once the death ridge sets up shop this summer (last 2 weeks a preview) but hopefully not.
 

[Jersey Man10 3502]

I went to the car wash for the first time in a month so you’re welcome if it rains.

[NorthLoop 14071]

7 hours ago, Jersey Man10 said:

I went to the car wash for the first time in a month so you’re welcome if it rains.

+1 here

Way longer than a month for me though. 

[Hate 20102]

Latest GFS model.

[utee94 15742]

11 minutes ago, Hate said:

Latest GFS model.

 

 

 

[Trey3216 15325]

Haven't washed my truck in over a year.  Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.  

[NorthLoop 14071]

27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Haven't washed my truck in over a year.  Think I'll run through the carwash this afternoon, for posterity.  

[gsoda3 3234]

we handwashed both cars on sunday.  come at me bro.

[sidis 9713]

so is this thing next week happening or what?

[SquishMitten 10395]

Hot damn. As much as I'd love a thorough soaking around here, 13 inches falling in the LCRA watershed would be a godsend. Doubt it'd be quite enough to fill all of em, but it could be close if it fell in the right spots.

[Biff Tannen 45477]

It's never going to rain again.

[TXLNGHRN10 341]

Those modes 100% tell me west Austin and the Hill Country will get nothing and like it. Houston watch your cornholes

[Wally Pryor 5240]

NWS 7-day forecast. Sounds like it starts Monday.

Maybe.

[texasdago 7550]

Its OK... we rented a house in Wimberley.  Nice knowing y'all.

[Post Oak 20182]

From Sean Belafiore KWTX Waco- he agrees with the outlook for next week.

 

The weather pattern turns unsettled starting on Sunday depending on where the front stalls. If the front stalls south of our area, we’ll be expecting a mostly dry day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The storm system moving through next week starts to arrive late Sunday and will send waves of off-and-on showers and storms through our area through at least early Wednesday and potentially even longer. The rain will of course keep highs down into the upper 70s and low 80s but we could be dealing with just a bit too much rain all at once. As the periodic heavy rainfall moves through, we’re expecting widespread rainfall totals near 2″ with isolated higher totals 3″-4″+ certainly possible. There could also be a bullseye of 6″ of rain somewhere in Central Texas but it’s far too early for any specificity like that. Although most model data continues to ramp up next week’s rain chances and rainfall totals, I’ll urge a bit of caution. While multi-inch rain totals are trending upward, next week’s rain isn’t a slam dunk just yet.

[bolverk 29360]

Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread?

This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM.

https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197

[Hate 20102]

Latest GFS and Euro models. Let’s hope the GFS is the more accurate model.

[texasdago 7550]

I hope we get gobs of rain until Thursday then that needs to stop for 3-4 days.

[utee94 15742]

37 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I hope we get gobs of rain until Thursday then that needs to stop for 3-4 days.

Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend...

[texasdago 7550]

16 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Narrator: It will flood on Memorial Day weekend...

It's OK... we're next to a creek.  What could possibly go wrong?  

[Chet Steadman 940]

Probably confirmation bias but the euro model runs way superior of whatever we put out.

They’ve been aces over the years 

[SquishMitten 10395]

Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?

[atomheartbevo 89362]

I can tell you that the weather apps on my phone are extremely accurate.  If they say it's going to rain, it won't.  If they say it won't rain, it will.

[boknowstecmo 216]

4 hours ago, SquishMitten said:

Yeah. Very disappointing to see that Euro model. Anybody know how far in advance their models have become super reliable? Is that what we should realistically expect? Or is it still another day or two before their models really hit their stride?

If the GFS rain models are anything like their future hurricane models, then that graphic is a load of shit.

[NorthLoop 14071]

8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Who normally starts our hurricane/tropical weather thread?

This article makes it sound like we could have a pretty active GoM.

https://theconversation.com/amp/bad-news-for-the-2022-hurricane-season-the-loop-current-a-fueler-of-monster-storms-is-looking-a-lot-like-it-did-in-2005-the-year-of-katrina-183197

Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Lol every year is the next 2005. Every fucking year.

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.

 

[Loop 1604 227]

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Loop 1604

[Anastasis 23375]

47 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

I'll take 1-2" (TWSS), but the hill country really needs to be hit. 

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, Loop 1604 said:

Latest Euro ensembles push everything to the east (shocker) Austin/SA corridor forecasted to get  maybe 1-2 inches of precip through next Saturday. Hill Country less. 

Until the shitty background state changes (sinking/dry air in the EPAC), models are going to continue underperforming in the medium to long range.

The GFS has been awful for 2 years now, I wouldn’t trust a thing it spits out.

It depends.  IF I'm not mistaken, wasn't it the GFS that absolutely nailed the Big Freeze in '21?  EURO seems to do better on precip and GFS does pretty damn well on sweeping lows.   

[miguelito 11204]

You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. 

Current drought conditions:

 

[boknowstecmo 216]

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

31 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

I may thumb my nose at them and go for a mountain bike ride. Or maybe go wash the truck. 

[Wally Pryor 5240]

3 hours ago, miguelito said:

You can use this map to figure out where it will not rain. 

Current drought conditions:

 

Holy shit.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, boknowstecmo said:

Decent sized rain clouds headed up from the SW. They'll probably dissipate right as they get near though. Because it'll never rain again. 

Enough to trigger my weather apps to say drizzle starting soon, even though I know it's bullshit.

[South Austin 52037]

Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.

[Scheiss Meister 8398]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Good news for the Houston area. My son’s fifth grade class is taking their year-end trip to Camp Allen this Monday through Wednesday, so that area should get plenty of rain then. You’re welcome.

My kids' Camp Allen experiences also usually included rain.  They said everyone just went wild in the mud and made a huge mess.  Best part of the week.

[6th Street 6340]

Not rain but got a good 8" of snow here last night.

[South Austin 52037]

21 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Not rain but got a good 8" of snow here last night.

It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole?

[Hate 20102]

Things are looking better for the Hill Country.

[6th Street 6340]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

It’s May. Where do you live? The North Pole?

Denver - late snowstorm here last night 

[Pam Cummings 9553]

Lots of stuff building to the west.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Pam Cummings

[miguelito 11204]

Boobie clouds over Boerne. 

[ftf82 485]

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

10 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Boobie clouds over Boerne. 

For an assman, those look like ass cheeks

[Post Oak 20182]

Cloudy windy and rainy hear in Hewitt.  Knock on wood we might miss the purple stuff

[irishtexan 11442]

Well, at least everyone else in a 150 mile radius is gonna get rain

[Homercles 10205]

27 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Cloudy windy and rainy hear in Hewitt.  Knock on wood we might miss the purple stuff

[Jersey Man10 3502]

I haven’t gotten shit.

[Pam Cummings 9553]

Full on forcefield