2022 Rain Thread

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

plant them deep. 

I planted my seed deep in South Austin's Mom's garden.  

Dammit, I had something for this.  

Anyway, holy shit.  Every hour I look, this thing gets more and more serious.  

Family did the annual spring break camping trip yesterday at Mother Neff (really cool park BTW, one of the few in the state system we've never been to).  And were already missing it today so they asked to do a campfire in the backyard and cook lunch.  I had to tell them that with these gusts and bright sunlight, it wasn't safe.  They got bummed out.  So we cooked inside in our backcountry pots and stuff inside and then ate outside in the tent again.  Then I go back inside and see an update on my phone about hail and tornado activity.  Fucking Texas in March baby! 

Edited March 20, 2022 by Lobo

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I planted my seed deep in South Austin's Mom's garden.  

Dammit, I had something for this.  

Anyway, holy shit.  Every hour I look, this thing gets more and more serious.  

Family did the annual spring break camping trip yesterday at Mother Neff (really cool park BTW, one of the few in the state system we've never been to).  And were already missing it today so they asked to do a campfire in the backyard and cook lunch.  I had to tell them that with these gusts and bright sunlight, it wasn't safe.  They got bummed out.  So we cooked inside in our backcountry pots and stuff inside and then ate outside in the tent again.  Then I go back inside and see an update on my phone about hail and tornado activity.  Fucking Texas in March baby! 

One of our favorites with the entire trail system being a one day hike. The seemingly boring prairie trail had us scare the shit out of a lone coyote last time. He noped the hell out of there so damn fast.

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

My favorite map from CNN with all the important cities...

 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

Corn your watch hole, Enhanced Risk expanded:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Edited March 21, 2022 by clapclapclap

[TwiceHorn 31,984]

15 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Corn your watch hole, Enhanced Risk expanded:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Furk.

[miguelito 11,447]

20 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

plant them deep. 

+rep for the good gardening advice.  I always do bury the tomato plants.  It's pretty cool how it can sprout roots from the buried part of the stem.  Now I just need to keep the hail off them.

[NorthLoop 14,420]

6 minutes ago, miguelito said:

+rep for the good gardening advice.  I always do bury the tomato plants.  It's pretty cool how it can sprout roots from the buried part of the stem.  Now I just need to keep the hail off them.

I put off planting this weekend until after this thing rolls through. 

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

Quote

Nevertheless,
   hourly HRRR runs along with the 00Z HRW-ARW are insistent on
   potential for a couple long-tracked supercells emanating northeast
   from the I-35 corridor in central/south-central TX into parts of
   east TX. If confidence increases in this scenario occurring, it is
   plausible that a mesoscale corridor of cat 4-MDT risk may be
   warranted in later outlooks.

Oh, good.

[Trey3216 15,450]

10 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

My favorite map from CNN with all the important cities...

 

L.O.Fucking L.   Marlin!!!!

[Trey3216 15,450]

27 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I put off planting this weekend until after this thing rolls through. 

Yep.   The only thing I have planted this far are onions and potatoes.   Potatoes will be fine, my onions may get completely demolished.    

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

24 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

My onions may get completely demolished.    

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

Tomorrow isn't looking fun for LA or MS

 

 

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

Where's this thing supposed to roll in from, the SW?

[phdhorn 6,224]

2 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Where's this thing supposed to roll in from, the SW?

Squall line pretty much N/S length of the state will form after lunch and roll through.  Right now there is nothing:



I'll chime in as this situation develops... I think the worst weather/best chance will still be E of 35 but we'll have to wait.  One good thing is that we're getting clouds/rain right now which should help mitigate the air a little and maybe cut down on chances.  But, maybe not.  Or maybe.  Or maybe not.  Or whatever, I give up.

[Footballpants 138]

4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

But, maybe not.  Or maybe.  Or maybe not.  Or whatever, I give up.

Spoken like a true weatherman.

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 minute ago, Footballpants said:

Spoken like a true weatherman.

Even false weathermen, like me.

[texasdago 7,753]

11 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Even false weathermen, like me.

In my limited and completely biased experience, it normally seems like SW Austin is a bit of a dead zone for the worst stuff, it tends to pass over and then fire up E of 35 and completely screw over someone in Bastrop or most likely Fayette County.  

[phdhorn 6,224]

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

In my limited and completely biased experience, it normally seems like SW Austin is a bit of a dead zone for the worst stuff, it tends to pass over and then fire up E of 35 and completely screw over someone in Bastrop or most likely Fayette County.  

It might seem like this, but in reality Austin gets is equal share of hits/misses, at least in similar rain zones.  If you stuck 100 people across the similar climate/rain belt as we have in Austin (generally a N/S swath more or less 20 miles either side of 35) and asked them to "get a feel" for how much they get/don't get rain, most of them would report the same thing more or less.  Certainly in a given year a pattern might bring more rain/less rain into a limited area (say about 100X100 miles) but it seems that most people would feel like other places get more in any given year (they've done research on this).  I.e. in Austin if it seems that we got 2 "hits" for every 10 "misses" that would be the same for a lot of other places.  Of course we are in somewhat narrow rain zones running across the state, i.e. avg. precip is definitely greater east of Bastrop than say west of Blanco.  But all in all, it's not all that different.

Update:  The squall line that will become severe is now forming just NE of the Big Bend area (and another possible one east of that).  3-6 p.m. is the peak expectation.  More as warranted.

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

Just now, phdhorn said:

It might seem like this, but in reality Austin gets is equal share of hits/misses, at least in similar rain zones.  If you stuck 100 people across the similar climate/rain belt as we have in Austin (generally a N/S swath more or less 20 miles either side of 35) and asked them to "get a feel" for how much they get/don't get rain, most of them would report the same thing more or less.  Certainly in a given year a pattern might bring more rain/less rain into a limited area (say about 100X100 miles) but it seems that most people would feel like other places get more in any given year (they've done research on this).  I.e. in Austin if it seems that we got 2 "hits" for every 10 "misses" that would be the same for a lot of other places.  Of course we are in somewhat narrow rain zones running across the state, i.e. avg. precip is definitely greater east of Bastrop than say west of Blanco.  But all in all, it's not all that different.

Update:  The squall line that will become severe is now forming just NE of the Big Bend area (and another possible one east of that).  3-6 p.m. is the peak expectation.  More as warranted.

Likely staying overcast in advance to scale back on the atmospheric instability?

[phdhorn 6,224]

Just now, Wally Pryor said:

Likely staying overcast in advance to scale back on the atmospheric instability?

It can help, but not always.  I.e. if a line goes through a sunny area west of us, it can keep up intensity.  But clouds/rain mix the atmosphere a bit.  What causes bad storms is when rapidly rising warm air cools and breaks through the warm cap, the updrafts get a lot worse and winds/rotation/hail picks up.  I think any cap in the atmosphere above us right now will break.  The only question is where.  NWS 1) is certain conditions are right; 2) not sure when/where the storms will go severe, but they will, and 3) right now, have potential to be mesoscale (rotating, non linear cells even within a broken line) which is worse for tornadoes and hail.  Most of the bets are still east of us, but again hopefully the rain/clouds help.  But if the shear is too great, even that isn't gonna work for long.

Should have a severe TS/tornado watch issued once the line forms for good - expect it round noon-2 p.m.

I like a good drama, and while NWS is tamping down sensationalist lingo in their current forecasts, I found this one interesting from this morning:
 

.SPECIAL SAFETY NOTICE...
Given we are coming out of the cool season and have not seen severe
storms of the magnitude expected since May 2021, that Spring Break
has just ended for many students, and this is a Monday with all the
normal chaos that brings for many, we put special attention on
safety and preparedness for this event. In addition, the timing of
the storms around the end of the school day and in rush hour
presents problems, especially if large hail (2+ inch diameter) and
tornadoes develop. In general, it is much safer to remain in a solid
building with a foundation rather than being in a vehicle, mobile
home, or other light structures. Once the storms develop, they
should quickly move through your area, so the best bet may be to
stay in place for an hour or two and not be caught out commuting.

More later, if needed...

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Update:  The squall line that will become severe is now forming just NE of the Big Bend area (and another possible one east of that).  3-6 p.m. is the peak expectation.  More as warranted.

Just saw that formation coming to life out there. I'm glad I have one of these for the rest of the afternoon

 

 

I'll probably grab a few straps of 100s that "got lost in the storm". Always use a crisis!

[texasdago 7,753]

14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

It might seem like this, but in reality Austin gets is equal share of hits/misses, at least in similar rain zones.  If you stuck 100 people across the similar climate/rain belt as we have in Austin (generally a N/S swath more or less 20 miles either side of 35) and asked them to "get a feel" for how much they get/don't get rain, most of them would report the same thing more or less.  Certainly in a given year a pattern might bring more rain/less rain into a limited area (say about 100X100 miles) but it seems that most people would feel like other places get more in any given year (they've done research on this).  I.e. in Austin if it seems that we got 2 "hits" for every 10 "misses" that would be the same for a lot of other places.  Of course we are in somewhat narrow rain zones running across the state, i.e. avg. precip is definitely greater east of Bastrop than say west of Blanco.  But all in all, it's not all that different.

Update:  The squall line that will become severe is now forming just NE of the Big Bend area (and another possible one east of that).  3-6 p.m. is the peak expectation.  More as warranted.

Maybe it was something that I read about how the escarpment breaks things up in certain areas... not sure.   I'm referring less to heavy rain and more to severe weather.  Neighbor works in insurance and he said the worst stuff always hits north of town.

[Wally Pryor 5,388]

7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

It can help, but not always.  I.e. if a line goes through a sunny area west of us, it can keep up intensity.  But clouds/rain mix the atmosphere a bit.  What causes bad storms is when rapidly rising warm air cools and breaks through the warm cap, the updrafts get a lot worse and winds/rotation/hail picks up.  I think any cap in the atmosphere above us right now will break.  The only question is where.  NWS 1) is certain conditions are right; 2) not sure when/where the storms will go severe, but they will, and 3) right now, have potential to be mesoscale (rotating, non linear cells even within a broken line) which is worse for tornadoes and hail.  Most of the bets are still east of us, but again hopefully the rain/clouds help.  But if the shear is too great, even that isn't gonna work for long.

Should have a severe TS/tornado watch issued once the line forms for good - expect it round noon-2 p.m.

I like a good drama, and while NWS is tamping down sensationalist lingo in their current forecasts, I found this one interesting from this morning:
 

.SPECIAL SAFETY NOTICE...
Given we are coming out of the cool season and have not seen severe
storms of the magnitude expected since May 2021, that Spring Break
has just ended for many students, and this is a Monday with all the
normal chaos that brings for many, we put special attention on
safety and preparedness for this event. In addition, the timing of
the storms around the end of the school day and in rush hour
presents problems, especially if large hail (2+ inch diameter) and
tornadoes develop. In general, it is much safer to remain in a solid
building with a foundation rather than being in a vehicle, mobile
home, or other light structures. Once the storms develop, they
should quickly move through your area, so the best bet may be to
stay in place for an hour or two and not be caught out commuting.

More later, if needed...

Thanks. We bullshit on this board a lot but Mother Nature isn't always a laughing matter. Good to have someone who knows the shit and keeps us apprised so we can cover our asses as needed. 

For your services, waiting on the life-sized poster of Yeomans (signed of course) for your bedroom door. Will let you know when it arrives. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Wally Pryor

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 minute ago, Wally Pryor said:

For your services, waiting on the life-sized poster of Yeomans (signed of course) for your bedroom door. Will let you know when it arrives. 

Like this?



Oh boy!!

[Loop 1604 227]

Dryline already advancing through Rocksprings. Gonna have a small window this afternoon. My gut is that most or all of this misses to the east of SA. Austin might get plowed though. 

 

 

[NorthLoop 14,420]

14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Maybe it was something that I read about how the escarpment breaks things up in certain areas... not sure.   I'm referring less to heavy rain and more to severe weather.  Neighbor works in insurance and he said the worst stuff always hits north of town.

I can see the vein popping on phd's head as he reads this

[Orange&White 5,563]

41 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

It might seem like this, but in reality Austin gets is equal share of hits/misses, at least in similar rain zones.  If you stuck 100 people across the similar climate/rain belt as we have in Austin (generally a N/S swath more or less 20 miles either side of 35) and asked them to "get a feel" for how much they get/don't get rain, most of them would report the same thing more or less.  Certainly in a given year a pattern might bring more rain/less rain into a limited area (say about 100X100 miles) but it seems that most people would feel like other places get more in any given year (they've done research on this).  I.e. in Austin if it seems that we got 2 "hits" for every 10 "misses" that would be the same for a lot of other places.  Of course we are in somewhat narrow rain zones running across the state, i.e. avg. precip is definitely greater east of Bastrop than say west of Blanco.  But all in all, it's not all that different.
 

Oh...I see. What you're saying is, "forcefield", right?

[Moby Ric 2,058]

I doubt anything worth reporting is going to happen, just some rain.  I spent the morning putting up furniture at my house and my MIL's house at my wife's "request".  Which means shit ain't getting that bad.

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

18 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I can see the vein popping on phd's head as he reads this

Reminds me of the old Waco legend that Lover's Leap's height protected the relatively lower downtown from tornadoes. Then 1953 happened.

 

 

[texasdago 7,753]

20 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I can see the vein popping on phd's head as he reads this

Ha!  Well, it just takes one storm to make me wrong.  BTW, if there's one thing I've learned over the years (certainly in Houston) is when they say, "hey, 2-3" expected with this storm", just double it.

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

Weather service upgraded the Brazos Valley's tornado chances in their recent update.  

 

That hail map is looking pretty nasty.

Edited March 21, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[clapclapclap 9,000]

tl;dr:  90% chance of widespread Katrina Jarrell

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by clapclapclap

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

11 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

tl;dr:  90% chance of widespread Katrina Jarrell

Man that's a great stripper name.

[NorthLoop 14,420]

24 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

tl;dr:  90% chance of widespread Katrina Jarrell

 

All this means is that we ain't getting shit x4

[BabaYaga 15,532]

Please Jesus bring the rain and park it over central and west Texas.  Put out the fires and refill the stock tanks.  Getting so GD dry the fish have ticks on them.  

[InkaUtexas 26,795]

4 hours ago, miguelito said:

+rep for the good gardening advice.  I always do bury the tomato plants.  It's pretty cool how it can sprout roots from the buried part of the stem.  Now I just need to keep the hail off them.

Milk jugs make good emergency guards for starts. Event will be quick so anything you can put over them is good. 

[Bevo Num1 1,061]

@ROFL BOX is probably enchubbened reading this thread.

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

In good news it's looking like the Big Country is getting some much needed rain right now.

[Biff Tannen 46,060]

Dammit.  I told my wife to take my beater to work today because of this, but nope.  When is this shit supposed to hit?  5-ish?

 

[texasdago 7,753]

I was supposed to drop off my car to a repair shop to fix the bumper thanks to a hit and run... since I know they store the cars outside, I pushed my drop off to next week.  

[bolverk 30,228]

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

Maybe it was something that I read about how the escarpment breaks things up in certain areas... not sure.   I'm referring less to heavy rain and more to severe weather.  Neighbor works in insurance and he said the worst stuff always hits north of town.

Living in SW Austin, the perception certainly is that the area has fewer tornadoes, and that does appear to be borne out by the available data. But we still get straight line winds, hail, and flooding for sure.

Here's a link to an interactive map showing recorded tornadoes and their intensities across Texas since 1950. You're basically fucked and doomed to die of a tornado if you live anywhere from Elgin to Leander.

Screenshot of the Austin area below:

 

So, really, only minor shit in that swath of South Austin out to Pedernales Falls. Of course, one of those EF0s near Brodie & Slaughter was likely responsible for knocking over a tree on my house during the Wimberley flooding. See blurb below on that if you click the correct blue dot on the interactive map:

 

 

 

[Trey3216 15,450]

Furk.   Starting to clear and sun trying to come out in Waco.   Not good for limiting heating.   

[crash_davis 23,465]

i washed and detailed the fuck out of my tahoe this weekend. i haven't done that in months, probably the last time it rained of any significance. 

come the fuck on rain. don't fail me now!

 

[texasdago 7,753]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Living in SW Austin, the perception certainly is that the area has fewer tornadoes, and that does appear to be borne out by the available data. But we still get straight line winds, hail, and flooding for sure.

Here's a link to an interactive map showing recorded tornadoes and their intensities across Texas since 1950. You're basically fucked and doomed to die of a tornado if you live anywhere from Elgin to Leander.

Screenshot of the Austin area below:

 

So, really, only minor shit in that swath of South Austin out to Pedernales Falls. Of course, one of those EF0s near Brodie & Slaughter was likely responsible for knocking over a tree on my house during the Wimberley flooding. See blurb below on that if you click the correct blue dot on the interactive map:

 

 

 

That's fascinating stuff.

 

Also some discussing that models are in disagreement...

https://twitter.com/harrywx1999/status/1505910342773350405?s=20&t=uFFJC4Y8qAgXsovthnQ-AA

[crash_davis 23,465]

austin aint getting shit rn. it looks like if it comes, it'll be a quick line which moves through in 15 mins. 

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Bevo Num1 said:

@ROFL BOX is probably enchubbened reading this thread.

I put off calling him about a new roof exactly for this sort of weather. I don't remember the last time we were in the red warning area. Seems like at worst it is orange and usually yellow.

[Guest]

Sun is out!

[SimonBolivar 11,026]

2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

austin aint getting shit rn. it looks like if it comes, it'll be a quick line which moves through in 15 mins. 

Plenty of time for it to spin-up.

[sidis 9,990]

so bottom line...should i head home now or what?

[crash_davis 23,465]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Plenty of time for it to spin-up.

looks outside window. shit better hurry up.