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2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Got a surprising couple o' tenths last night in the rainforest here.  Pretty boy on KXAN said at 6 it's all over but for once it wasn't.  It was hot enough that outflows came in from the NE and stirred up enough juice to rain.

That's 2 measurable rain events in the past 5 days.  Better build that ark!

Okay, today there is still a small chance that the storms will come in from the SE this time, but less coverage.  Nevertheless enough punch (and the center of the high is farther west than forecast) that some "on the edge of the high" showers could hit us.  Enough to mention at least.

While these showers "unusually" came in from the NE, it's not really that weird in the summer.  The lows which form in the Gulf and try to break through the usual high dome squatting on us will spin c-clockwise and drop rain from the NE.  Which is what happened.

Actually I was surprised that the rain made it to the Hill Country without drying up - the high can evaporate that stuff with little problem usually.  But as I said the center wobbled a little farther W than predicted, so it didn't dry up the rain.  For once the rain won.

That said, put on your body-length ice pads, because the high is gonna wobble back - later weekend is gonna heat up and 106° or thereabouts is proally gonna happen Sunday and/or after.

For today, at least there's a fighting chance Mabry don't make it to triple.  Would like to see the streak broken (although most of us wouldn't know a tinker's difference between 99° and 100° - it's all mental).  Remember the average high right now is about year's max - 97° - so it ain't really that much lower.  I think it really starts being felt after about 103°.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40678

Posted
Posted (edited)

A lady posted this on another message board…..

Quote

12:28 AM - Today#73

We got rain yesterday in this part of Texas. (Fredericksburg)
We have been in a drought-always but this summer bad/worse. It came out of nowhere. I got an alert on my phone looked out the window and had that oh shit moment. High wind & hail advisory. My husband and I scurried to get his big ass truck in the garage. We have a 4 car garage and there is no room to park vehicles. -his stuff not mine. The wind was unbelievable. We had limbs down- none big. Going to work I passed by a little shopping center with a huge live oak that was completely down. Fire & EMS on scene. Then when I get to work I see one of our intersections close by is closed by Fire & EMS. Our Physical rehab building across the street had completely lost the roof. Nursing home next door had some roof damage and a downed pole but everyone ok. 

When I left for work I saw a pile of my potted plants & my door wreath laying in a twisted puddle in the front flower bed. I won’t complain about the rain. Most of us around here think we are cursed-an old Comanche curse. The storms usually split up and go around us and everyone gets rain but us. So rain is welcomed. Hail & wind no. 

 

Edited by Armybrat
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45512

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

While these showers "unusually" came in from the NE, it's not really that weird in the summer.  The lows which form in the Gulf and try to break through the usual high dome squatting on us will spin c-clockwise and drop rain from the NE.  Which is what happened.

Is that what led to the S/SW trek of the big Jarrell tornado in 1997?

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is that what led to the S/SW trek of the big Jarrell tornado in 1997?

Nope. But that was really unusual, a front moving in its typical SE direction through Texas also had a typical frontal line that curved toward the SW. A number of complex factors caused this front to slow down and allow the dry line to catch up to it. A situation develop where a gravity wave outflow (i.e. the juice needed to stir up the atmosphere on an otherwise very untypical day for that) followed this dry line SW, and the different set of circumstances enabled supercell formation on a day that was very unlikely to have it. Both conditions enabled both the strength and direction of the tornado. 

It would take a lot of eggheaded explanation to describe exactly what happened and most are beyond the average person's understanding (and some of mine) but let's just say that the combination of factors which influenced strength, and those which influenced direction, probably a once in a 1,000 year combo together, combined to form that event. Although each of them happens by themselves somewhat frequently in spring in Texas, the two coming together at that point were very, very unusual.

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ztejas

ztejas 43244

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Nope. But that was really unusual, a front moving in its typical SE direction through Texas also had a typical frontal line that curved toward the SW. A number of complex factors caused this front to slow down and allow the dry line to catch up to it. A situation develop where a gravity wave outflow (i.e. the juice needed to stir up the atmosphere on an otherwise very untypical day for that) followed this dry line SW, and the different set of circumstances enabled supercell formation on a day that was very unlikely to have it.

dan levy comedy GIF by CBC

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Moby Ric

Moby Ric 2058

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HookEm said:

What is this "precipitation" they speak of?  Never heard of it.

Precipitation is from the ancient greeks and he was the God of false hope.  He would lure you into a sense of hope playing the long game so you would really commit and then take you out back and fuck you in the ass.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Another day of the models showing us near normal or on the edge of wetter than average. Looks promising that there will at least be the chance of some sort of rain in the next couple of weeks, but it ain't going to be next week:

image.png.26873c52f04c83c0c63ea087810aa94d.png

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104460

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Another day of the models showing us near normal or on the edge of wetter than average. Looks promising that there will at least be the chance of some sort of rain in the next couple of weeks, but it ain't going to be next week:

image.png.26873c52f04c83c0c63ea087810aa94d.png

That's actually perfect, and what I would expect: a large "no rain for you" forcefield over most of Texas.  Of course.

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hornian

hornian 5201

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

oh that makes me feel MUCH better.

Don't want to even talk about all the dead cornfields I saw b/w Austin and Houston.

Yeah, except you intentionally let corn dry on the stalk in a lot of contexts (like grain corn instead of food corn), so may have been intentional (irrigation still possible even in this drought from LCRA). 

Source: Grew up in a community that was known for growing corn, and spent lots of times driving though "dead" cornfields that were that way intentionally. 

Edit to add: if your trust yankees, this was also easily found with a google search: https://www.nny360.com/artsandlife/why-is-corn-left-drying-up-in-fields/article_504b81c5-ede0-5798-b0f0-c8696315226f.html

 

Edited by hornian
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Hpara759

Hpara759 1777

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, hornian said:

Yeah, except you intentionally let corn dry on the stalk in a lot of contexts (like grain corn instead of food corn), so may have been intentional (irrigation still possible even in this drought from LCRA). 

 

 

Now you did it....you went and killed his drama

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104460

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, texasdago said:

oh that makes me feel MUCH better.

Don't want to even talk about all the dead cornfields I saw b/w Austin and Houston.

 

3 hours ago, hornian said:

Yeah, except you intentionally let corn dry on the stalk in a lot of contexts (like grain corn instead of food corn), so may have been intentional (irrigation still possible even in this drought from LCRA). 

Source: Grew up in a community that was known for growing corn, and spent lots of times driving though "dead" cornfields that were that way intentionally. 

Edit to add: if your trust yankees, this was also easily found with a google search: https://www.nny360.com/artsandlife/why-is-corn-left-drying-up-in-fields/article_504b81c5-ede0-5798-b0f0-c8696315226f.html

 

 

24 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

Now you did it....you went and killed his drama

Yeah....stop being children..............of the corn.

158515416174369896-31-670x332.jpeg

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texasdago

texasdago 7550

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, hornian said:

Yeah, except you intentionally let corn dry on the stalk in a lot of contexts (like grain corn instead of food corn), so may have been intentional (irrigation still possible even in this drought from LCRA). 

Source: Grew up in a community that was known for growing corn, and spent lots of times driving though "dead" cornfields that were that way intentionally. 

Edit to add: if your trust yankees, this was also easily found with a google search: https://www.nny360.com/artsandlife/why-is-corn-left-drying-up-in-fields/article_504b81c5-ede0-5798-b0f0-c8696315226f.html

 

Learned something new... my bad.  That said, everything looks B-R-O-W-N

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1777

Posted
Posted
Just now, texasdago said:

Learned something new... my bad.  That said, everything looks B-R-O-W-N

I can say this... there is little to no cotton planted in Stonewall, Kent , Dickens, Motley, Hall, Briscoe and Floyd Counties (where there is usually a lot) due to no rain when they needed it to plant.

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Spaulding Smails

Spaulding Smails 1551

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

...and I can tell you the last time we were out in Llano, it looked downright awful out there.  Need to see what its like lately or better not so I don't get depressed.

Our ranch in Kimble County looked like the surface of the moon in late May.  We got two rounds of 2+" between June and July.  Small shoots of green have popped up, but it's still pretty bleak.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104460

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Dark gray clouds showed up, wind has started blowing pretty good, temperature dropped about 10 degrees in a couple of minutes and I got this bit of hope:

Capture.JPG.329206fd3e7585200e0504c8c08defe2.JPG

 

But until I see actual water on the ground, I'm calling it more bullshit.

Might as well say "Ann-Margaret's coming."

227a90f6-ab40-4b4e-8011-b8cd9fa238a2_tex

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