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2022 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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phdhorn
phdhorn

Post-mortem: I hope people in ATX and immediate realize how freaking lucky we've been.  The severe prediction map was spot on!  The storms started blowing up just west of Austin, giving most of us

jimmyjazz
jimmyjazz

I'm struggling to reboot my meteorology expertise after 5 years of focusing on election law, virology, economics, international relations and military tactics.

Grade of D as in David
Grade of D as in David

Hey mother fucker I wish every year was 2005.  

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Loop 1604

Loop 1604 227

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

image.thumb.png.121a0487b744bdca1f67a2e4d81099cb.png

Brady Bunch Jan GIF by MOODMAN
 

We are looking at a  possible 4th year La Niña. PDO is strongly negative and it isn’t showing any signs of changing anytime soon. 

Trades have strengthened over the equatorial pacific as well…

tl;dr it’s never going to rain again

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Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Loop 1604 said:

Brady Bunch Jan GIF by MOODMAN
 

We are looking at a  possible 4th year La Niña. PDO is strongly negative and it isn’t showing any signs of changing anytime soon. 

Trades have strengthened over the equatorial pacific as well…

tl;dr it’s never going to rain again

I saw that it was going neutral:

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/the-end-of-la-nina-is-finally-in-sight/

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utee94

utee94 15817

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's not hard to believe those maps.  "Near normal" temperature, when the average in Austin for August is around 97-98, seems right on.

Above average rainfall could be believable-- if we get even 0.2" in the next 6-10 days then that's probably above average for the first couple weeks of August.

Another way to look at those maps, is to say-- it's going to be exactly like it is now, for the next 6-10 days.

Womp. womp.

 

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bolverk

bolverk 29671

Posted
Posted

The forcefield is real.

Austin is repelling rain; other cities attracting it — UT study discovers

AUSTIN (KXAN) — If you’ve ever seen rain on radar moving toward a city suddenly split in two, as if something was blocking it from reaching the city, you may have joked about a forcefield being responsible. That joke may actually be the truth. A recent study done by researchers with the University of Texas found cities are capable of repelling rain.

“We have known that cities can change temperatures,” said Dev Niyogi, a professor of geological sciences and environmental engineering at the University of Texas. “We have also started to know that cities can change rainfall.”

Niyogi and a team of researchers from around the world wanted to know more about how cities are influencing rain.

They found different factors play a roll:

  • Tall buildings, which can deflect wind.
  • Roads, parking lots and concrete which make the city warmer.
  • Green spaces, which cool parts of the city.
  • Pollution, which influences heat and ozone levels.

For a city to influence the weather, it must have a diameter of 25-kilometers, about 15 miles across. Niyogi and his team found another factor that impacts the weather: its shape.

How a city’s shape influences the rain
“Whether they are square, whether they are round, whether they elongate it does have an impact in the manner in which thunderstorms get formed, where they form, whether they come over the city,” Niyogi said.

According to the team, there are four types of city shape:

  • Starship/circular shape with a center spoke that stretches out in a circle: Think Paris or Indianapolis.
  • Square shaped, with blocks of buildings spreading out by roads: Niyogi used Beijing and Houston as examples.
  • Triangle shaped: Niyogi referenced coastal cities where most people live along the coast and then the cities tapers off behind it.
  • Rectangular cites that follow a road or river: Austin is this shape, both following the local water features but stretching north along I-35.

Niyogi’s team found circular cities actually attract rain. “The circular one clearly has the largest impact, because that’s where the storms can come in, they can have an interaction.”

Rectangular cities, like Austin, actually repel rain.

Designing a city to effect the weather
Niyogi said understanding the impact cities have on weather can help us direct the weather where we want it.

“Maybe there is a way that we can design Austin or any city we live in in a way that it can make it possible that there is a slightly more chance that it rains where we want it to rain.”

This could be an aquifer or lake. Niyogi said in areas like the southwest, where water is becoming more scarce, this method could be essential.

Niyogi pointed out we now have enough knowledge to do this. His team works with city planners to do this around the world.

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1778

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, bolverk said:

The forcefield is real.

Austin is repelling rain; other cities attracting it — UT study discovers

AUSTIN (KXAN) — If you’ve ever seen rain on radar moving toward a city suddenly split in two, as if something was blocking it from reaching the city, you may have joked about a forcefield being responsible. That joke may actually be the truth. A recent study done by researchers with the University of Texas found cities are capable of repelling rain.

“We have known that cities can change temperatures,” said Dev Niyogi, a professor of geological sciences and environmental engineering at the University of Texas. “We have also started to know that cities can change rainfall.”

Niyogi and a team of researchers from around the world wanted to know more about how cities are influencing rain.

They found different factors play a roll:

  • Tall buildings, which can deflect wind.
  • Roads, parking lots and concrete which make the city warmer.
  • Green spaces, which cool parts of the city.
  • Pollution, which influences heat and ozone levels.

For a city to influence the weather, it must have a diameter of 25-kilometers, about 15 miles across. Niyogi and his team found another factor that impacts the weather: its shape.

How a city’s shape influences the rain
“Whether they are square, whether they are round, whether they elongate it does have an impact in the manner in which thunderstorms get formed, where they form, whether they come over the city,” Niyogi said.

According to the team, there are four types of city shape:

  • Starship/circular shape with a center spoke that stretches out in a circle: Think Paris or Indianapolis.
  • Square shaped, with blocks of buildings spreading out by roads: Niyogi used Beijing and Houston as examples.
  • Triangle shaped: Niyogi referenced coastal cities where most people live along the coast and then the cities tapers off behind it.
  • Rectangular cites that follow a road or river: Austin is this shape, both following the local water features but stretching north along I-35.

Niyogi’s team found circular cities actually attract rain. “The circular one clearly has the largest impact, because that’s where the storms can come in, they can have an interaction.”

Rectangular cities, like Austin, actually repel rain.

Designing a city to effect the weather
Niyogi said understanding the impact cities have on weather can help us direct the weather where we want it.

“Maybe there is a way that we can design Austin or any city we live in in a way that it can make it possible that there is a slightly more chance that it rains where we want it to rain.”

This could be an aquifer or lake. Niyogi said in areas like the southwest, where water is becoming more scarce, this method could be essential.

Niyogi pointed out we now have enough knowledge to do this. His team works with city planners to do this around the world.

 

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Posted
Posted

Another update now shows green on both the 8-14 and 6-10 outlook. The 5-7 precip says... uh, not anytime soon.

image.png.75a28c1ecd97c84061c689e2d0d31afb.png

By the way, is that a mountain ridge in western Mexico? It's been getting hammered every time I look at these precip forecasts.

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HenryJames

HenryJames 66045

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Another update now shows green on both the 8-14 and 6-10 outlook. The 5-7 precip says... uh, not anytime soon.

image.png.75a28c1ecd97c84061c689e2d0d31afb.png

By the way, is that a mountain ridge in western Mexico? It's been getting hammered every time I look at these precip forecasts.

image.gif.c2c381bc22657fd9d92342f80e6e2643.gif

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted
On 8/1/2022 at 10:04 AM, bolverk said:

The forcefield is real.

Austin is repelling rain; other cities attracting it — UT study discovers

image.png.a8c7b67ffaf53dc5154c8c2bd90ff2f4.png

'Bout time! (was just coming here to post this).

Now all we need is the article in the other thread which says that Austin has gotten big enough to develop a heat island which makes temps hotter than the surrounding areas.

Now if everyone would just move out, that would be the coup de gras.

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texasdago

texasdago 7573

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

image.png.a8c7b67ffaf53dc5154c8c2bd90ff2f4.png

'Bout time! (was just coming here to post this).

Now all we need is the article in the other thread which says that Austin has gotten big enough to develop a heat island which makes temps hotter than the surrounding areas.

Now if everyone would just move out, that would be the coup de gras.

One reason why I'm glad we live by a bunch of Nature Conservancy, Parkland and Watershed management land.  Want to build on it?  Nope.

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5524

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, texasdago said:

One reason why I'm glad we live by a bunch of Nature Conservancy, Parkland and Watershed management land.  Want to build on it?  Nope.

Some place warm, a place where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I’m talking about a little place called Aspen Bee Cave.

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Posted
Posted (edited)

Lol. The green on the long-term forecasts for the past few day evidently meant a 20% chance of rain on Friday. Now it's back to "normal" and the precip forecast...

That mountain range or whatever in Mexico must be seeing landslides or flooding or something. It's been red for two straight weeks. Also, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada are getting more rain than we are.

image.png.7352e977b47834d6a1213f6dda3b9ffc.png

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45677

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. The green on the long-term forecasts for the past few day evidently meant a 20% chance of rain on Friday. Now it's back to "normal" and the precip forecast...

That mountain range or whatever in Mexico must be seeing landslides or flooding or something. It's been red for two straight weeks. Also, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada are getting more rain than we are.

image.png.7352e977b47834d6a1213f6dda3b9ffc.png

Probably just the simulation glitching and stuck on repeat.

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. The green on the long-term forecasts for the past few day evidently meant a 20% chance of rain on Friday. Now it's back to "normal" and the precip forecast...

That mountain range or whatever in Mexico must be seeing landslides or flooding or something. It's been red for two straight weeks. Also, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada are getting more rain than we are.

image.png.7352e977b47834d6a1213f6dda3b9ffc.png

Is any of the four corners rain going into Lake Mead?  It sure would be cool to see Vegas, AZ and Cali not run out of water in the not-so-distant future

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28951

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

Is any of the four corners rain going into Lake Mead?  It sure would be cool to see Vegas, AZ and Cali not run out of water in the not-so-distant future

There are videos of runoff going into Lake Mead. It went up... 4 inches.

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