2022 Rain Thread

[Homercles 10206]

Yeah need an update for approximate time the hail will start.  Trying to gauge when to get my kids from after school care. 

[crash_davis 23468]

5 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Yeah need an update for approximate time the hail will start.  Trying to gauge when to get my kids from after school care. 

is that when you want them to play outside?

[Loop 1604 227]

Nm

Edited March 21, 2022 by Loop 1604

[Loop 1604 227]

NWS has already reduced storm chances down to 50% (down from 70% this AM) here in northern SA.

[crash_davis 23468]

got damned i'm full of tangents today. came across this article going down the reddit black hole. 

tldr, hundreds of bodies found in high himalayan mountain lake were probably killed by giant hail storm. 

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/skeleton-lake-of-roopkund-india

However, a 2004 expedition to the site seems to have finally revealed the mystery of what caused those people’s deaths. The answer was stranger than anyone had guessed.

As it turns out, all the bodies date to around 850 AD. DNA evidence indicates that there were two distinct groups of people, one a family or tribe of closely related individuals, and a second smaller, shorter group of locals, likely hired as porters and guides. Rings, spears, leather shoes, and bamboo staves were found, leading experts to believe that the group was comprised of pilgrims heading through the valley with the help of the locals.

All the bodies had died in a similar way, from blows to the head. However, the short deep cracks in the skulls appeared to be the result not of weapons, but rather of something rounded. The bodies also only had wounds on their heads, and shoulders as if the blows had all come from directly above. What had killed them all, porter and pilgrim alike?

Among Himalayan women there is an ancient and traditional folk song. The lyrics describe a goddess so enraged at outsiders who defiled her mountain sanctuary that she rained death upon them by flinging hailstones “hard as iron.” After much research and consideration, the 2004 expedition came to the same conclusion. All 200 people died from a sudden and severe hailstorm.

[texasdago 7768]

Sun at 2:00 PM has nothing to do with the forecast showing the "good stuff" hitting between 5:00 - 7:00.  Weather folks been pretty consistent about it being a rush hour event.

[Trey3216 15452]

3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Sun at 2:00 PM has nothing to do with the forecast showing the "good stuff" hitting between 5:00 - 7:00.  Weather folks been pretty consistent about it being a rush hour event.

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

[texasdago 7768]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

Let me clarify... don't cheer the sun because it doesn't mean its going to stay sunny.  We're on the same page.

[crash_davis 23468]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

A few hours of diurnal heating will enhance the instability in the atmosphere.   So yeah, sunny at 2:00 does have something to do with the stuff that will hit at 5:00.   

so now matter how sunny it is, we're gonna get fucked anyway? 

new team motto?

[Deej 77807]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

In good news it's looking like the Big Country is getting some much needed rain right now.

He needs it.

 

[crash_davis 23468]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

He needs it.

 

WOW. 

[NorthLoop 14463]

line forming east of us... told you we wouldn't get shit

[SimonBolivar 11063]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

line forming east of us... told you we wouldn't get shit

That ain't the one to worry about. It's the one that's going from Del Rio to Childress that's popping up right now.

Edited March 21, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[Trey3216 15452]

14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Let me clarify... don't cheer the sun because it doesn't mean its going to stay sunny.  We're on the same page.

Yeah, I wasnt. cheering on the sun.   Glad we both just misread each other a bit.   
From dago to dago, I was worried about the sun warming the place up a bit before the fun stuff gets here and makes it even more fun.   

[TwiceHorn 32072]

10 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That ain't the one to worry about. It's the one that's going from Del Rio to Childress that's popping up right now.

Shit's still moving mostly south to north, I thought it was supposed to start moving west to east by now.

[SimonBolivar 11063]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Shit's still moving mostly south to north, I thought it was supposed to start moving west to east by now.

Yeah, that doesn't bode well looking at the expected weather for East Texas and Louisiana for a storm that's on time.

[phdhorn 6225]

Update:

I'll be back in when/if stuff gets nasty.  It's entirely true we might not get shit.  Or, it's entirely true we may get slammed.

One thing is for sure.. the line which will be severe really won't ramp up until it gets near us, say within 100 miles.  The line out west isn't running into the blob of moisture that is the risk area.

It's not uncommon that this situation is ripe to "blow up" on or near us out of nothing.  Some of our worst weather has been more like that than spotting a line way out west that comes through - usually these lines die down.  I don't like this scenario, and the best hope is that it forms east of us.

But nothing on the radar right now means much as to the next 3-4 hours.  I'd say within the next hour or two is when "it gets real" either shows up - or not - on the radar.  So I'll be back if that happens.  If not, meh. (But someone in the eastern half of Texas is going to get slammed today, definitely).

[Loop 1604 227]

43 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

NWS has already reduced storm chances down to 50% (down from 70% this AM) here in northern SA.

Down to 30%

[Post Oak 20555]

Any thoughts about chance of severe storms in Waco north? Thx

[phdhorn 6225]

Interesting tidbit while I'm here...

Little outflow boundary sweeping in, this is a rush of cooler air generated by thunderstorms behind it.  Lots of times these outflows can themselves be the line to ramp up, though I don't think it's gonna happen here.  Just kind of a cool pic FWIW.



Back later (hope not, but we'll see).

[Post Oak 20555]

Just issued.  FWIW

 

[phdhorn 6225]

3 minutes ago, Loop 1604 said:

Down to 30%

Kinda good news, might mean energy is shifting to north/east.  But haven't seen anything official on it yet.

Got damn I hate this stuff... technology just isn't good enough yet to predict pinpoints on this.  Fingers crossed.

[phdhorn 6225]

4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Any thoughts about chance of severe storms in Waco north? Thx

Good.

[TwiceHorn 32072]

2 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Just issued.  FWIW

 

Furk.

[LonghornSean 4103]

My place of work cancelled all after-school activities and asked parents to pick up immediately after school.

[TwiceHorn 32072]

Let's hear it for convective interference! LFG!

[texasdago 7768]

3 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Kinda good news, might mean energy is shifting to north/east.  But haven't seen anything official on it yet.

Got damn I hate this stuff... technology just isn't good enough yet to predict pinpoints on this.  Fingers crossed.

I imagine it will eventually get there.  Look at how much more accurate they've gotten with hurricane cones versus just a few years ago.

[Skipper 6411]

Seems like we are wait and see in Dallas area as well.  We got a ton of marble and nickel size hail out of the storm last week and that shit was loud enough.  Don't want to see the big stuff pretty please.

[ballrific 220]

I'm sure we're fine, everyone go outside

[Post Oak 20555]

7 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Good.

Thanks

[Guest Lobo]

8 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Let's hear it for convective interference! LFG!

Is that a 10 or 15-yard penalty?  

[Trey3216 15452]

Just now, Lobo said:

Is that a 10 or 15-yard penalty?  

Spot foul 

[BabaYaga 15623]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Is that a 10 or 15-yard penalty?  

PK in the box

[phdhorn 6225]

One more thing.. just FYI here is an approximation of the cold front (as of 2:55 p.m.), which in this case, is the place where the worst storms will form with this system, so you can track it on radar.  Bye (for awhile).

[NorthLoop 14463]

The area where that big Eastland fire is getting a train of rain right now. Hope it soaks that whole part of the state. 

[Brisketexan 106876]

5 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

One more thing.. just FYI here is an approximation of the cold front (as of 2:55 p.m.), which in this case, is the place where the worst storms will form with this system, so you can track it on radar.  Bye (for awhile).

[SimonBolivar 11063]

8 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

One more thing.. just FYI here is an approximation of the cold front (as of 2:55 p.m.), which in this case, is the place where the worst storms will form with this system, so you can track it on radar.  Bye (for awhile).

...20Z Update...
   Severe probabilities have been trimmed on the western edge of the
   risk area, based on the eastward progression of the Pacific cold
   front/effective dryline. Otherwise, no major changes have been made
   to the outlook. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
   increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the early
   evening, from northwest into central TX, with all severe hazards
   possible. 

 

No major changes in this update from what I can tell.

[Skipper 6411]

I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

[Trey3216 15452]

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

Storm explosions happen for 3 reasons…

-extreme temperature disparity

-extreme wind shear/pressure gradients colliding

-extreme moisture gradients colliding.
 

this event has points 2&3 happening.  
 

very volatile wind gradients and incredible dew point disparity.    The dew point in Midland is 20.   It’s in the high 60’s low 70’s in Central TX right now.    

[TwiceHorn 32072]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've only been following weather relatively close since the June 2019 storm in Dallas rocked my world and I wasn't prepared for it (although nobody really called that one with much notice, at least at the time it came through).  But seems like an odd pattern here.  Mild to Moderate storms flowing north to south over DFW with the line then coming from the east.  We've already had a couple of really solid chunks of rain.   I feel like these days we're on severe watch are typically hot and humid all day just waiting to pop.

I have been a weather watcher for quite a while.  My Dad took this photo in 1957.  https://www.1957dallastornado.net/  He was involved in press relations and sent it to a contact at DMN and was never credited with the photo.

My cousin's house got schwacked and my aunt and grandmother lived through the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado.

But that 2019 came as close as I have ever been (no damage), and kind of scared the shit out of me.

[TwiceHorn 32072]

We're under the biggest tornado watch I think I have ever seen.

[Loop 1604 227]

At least it’s not a PDS watch. 

[Skipper 6411]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

I have been a weather watcher for quite a while.  My Dad took this photo in 1957.  https://www.1957dallastornado.net/  He was involved in press relations and sent it to a contact at DMN and was never credited with the photo.

My cousin's house got schwacked and my aunt and grandmother lived through the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado.

But that 2019 came as close as I have ever been (no damage), and kind of scared the shit out of me.

Are you referencing the October tornado or the June storm?  The 2019 tornado was damn close to us as well.  It veered about 1-2 miles north after crossing 75.  But we were pretty much ground zero of the microburst associated with the June storm and my house flooded (in addition to all the hail/wind damage).  If you drove the neighborhood you would have assumed a tornado hit with the wind damage. It was insane.  Corby Davidson from the Ticket lives close and tweeted some good footage of the flooding.  It was just fucking nuts.  I've done a lot drainage work since but no idea if it could stand up to that shit show.  Hope to never find out.

[NorthLoop 14463]

Tornado warning - looks just SE of Graham headed towards Jacksboro. 

[SimonBolivar 11063]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Tornado warning - looks just SE of Graham headed towards Jacksboro. 

And so it begins

[NorthLoop 14463]

5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

We're under the biggest tornado watch I think I have ever seen.

pretty sure i've seen them 5x as big as this one

[TwiceHorn 32072]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Are you referencing the October tornado or the June storm?  The 2019 tornado was damn close to us as well.  It veered about 1-2 miles north after crossing 75.  But we were pretty much ground zero of the microburst associated with the June storm and my house flooded (in addition to all the hail/wind damage).  If you drove the neighborhood you would have assumed a tornado hit with the wind damage. It was insane.  Corby Davidson from the Ticket lives close and tweeted some good footage of the flooding.  It was just fucking nuts.  I've done a lot drainage work since but no idea if it could stand up to that shit show.  Hope to never find out.

The tornado, although you have my sympathy on the flooding and wind.  

[NorthLoop 14463]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

And so it begins

And not a live stream storm chaser in sight. These idiots not get the memo today? 

[crash_davis 23468]

i'm getting ready. just took a before picture of my patio furniture. waiting a few hours to post the horrific after photos.

[SimonBolivar 11063]

2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

i'm getting ready. just took a before picture of my patio furniture. waiting a few hours to post the horrific after photos.

I'm ready to mark myself safe as soon as possible.