Things not going well in Kazakhstan

[Parliament 14,255]

Seems things are headed in the wrong direction.

Dozens of protesters have been killed in Kazakhstan in attacks on government buildings and at least a dozen police officers have died, including one who was found beheaded.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/apn-kazakhstan-unrest/100743000

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

I was thinking aTurkey might be in the mix as well, but Tokayev has already thanked Erdogan for his support this morning, along with the Uzbek, Chinese presidents.

Erdogan loves him some nationalism and wants to get the band back together again a la Ertugrul (good series BTW, especially season 1). Not too sure he has eyes set on a prize this big. But anything is possible in Central Asia. 

Like some have said, us figuring out what has happened may take a while, if we figure it out at all.

My dos centavos is good ole fashioned greed. They lifted the cap to give more money to themselves and their cronies. The regular Joe got pissed. Tokayev conveniently replaces the remaining Nursultan folk with his own to show the folk he’s ridding the corruption. Two birds one stone, more moolah for himself.

Yeah I know he was handpicked by Nulsultan. Don’t ever underestimate the other guy’s greed. Do you know what a chazer is Frank?
Tokayev makes a deal with Putin to cut him in on the action, but now Vlad’s the heavy and will be at his beck and call. Putin doesn’t help folk for free and I’m not referring to being a good neighbor. Money, resources, et al agreements were made. 
 

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

43 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Seems things are headed in the wrong direction.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/07/asia/kazakhstan-kassym-jomart-tokayev-address-intl/index.html
 

Quote

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has ordered security forces to "kill without warning" to crush the violent protests that have paralyzed the former Soviet republic and reportedly left dozens dead.

In a defiant public address Friday, Tokayev said the unrest that began earlier this week as protests against rising fuel prices had been masterminded by well-trained "terrorist bandits" from both inside and outside the country. Kazakh state media reported Friday that 18 security personnel and 26 "armed criminals" had been killed in violent protests. More than 3,000 people have been detained.

Quote

Tokayev said the situation had "stabilized" in Kazakhstan's largest city, Almaty, and that the "introduction of a state of emergency is yielding results."

"But terrorists continue to damage state and private property and use weapons against citizens," he said. "I gave the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to open fire to kill without warning."

[Shady Ray 1,633]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Seems things are headed in the wrong direction.

Dozens of protesters have been killed in Kazakhstan in attacks on government buildings and at least a dozen police officers have died, including one who was found beheaded.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/apn-kazakhstan-unrest/100743000

I guess since the bodies are piling up, the question now is whether that infamous Consulting Services Agreement between Tony Blair and Nursultan is assignable to Tokayev. I wonder if Tony is paid by the word, or rather the size of the massacre he needs to help spin as "just part of KZ progress."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/24/tony-blair-advice-kazakh-president-protesters

 

Quote

 

Tony Blair advises Kazakh president on publicity after killing of protesters
Former British PM criticised for suggesting strategy following Zhanaozen incident in which police shot dead 15 civilians 

Tony Blair's role advising countries with poor human rights records has come under scrutiny again after he gave Kazakhstan's president advice on how to avoid his image being tarnished by the killing of 15 civilian protesters by police.

In a letter to Nursultan Nazarbeyev, Blair told the autocratic ruler that the December 2011 deaths, "tragic though they were, should not obscure the enormous progress that Kazakhstan has made". Blair advised Nazarbeyev that when dealing with the western media, he should tackle the events in Zhanaozen, when police opened fire on protesters, including oil workers demanding higher wages, "head-on".

In the letter, obtained by the Sunday Telegraph he also suggested passages to be inserted into a speech the president was giving at the University of Cambridge aimed at counteracting any bad publicity. One read: "By all means make your points and I assure you we're listening. But give us credit for the huge change of a positive nature we have brought about".

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/24/tony-blair-advice-kazakh-president-protesters

 

 

Fuck Tony Blair.

 

Edited to include correct link.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1,633]

32 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

I was thinking aTurkey might be in the mix as well, but Tokayev has already thanked Erdogan for his support this morning, along with the Uzbek, Chinese presidents.

Erdogan loves him some nationalism and wants to get the band back together again a la Ertugrul (good series BTW, especially season 1). Not too sure he has eyes set on a prize this big. But anything is possible in Central Asia. 

Like some have said, us figuring out what has happened may take a while, if we figure it out at all.

My dos centavos is good ole fashioned greed. They lifted the cap to give more money to themselves and their cronies. The regular Joe got pissed. Tokayev conveniently replaces the remaining Nursultan folk with his own to show the folk he’s ridding the corruption. Two birds one stone, more moolah for himself.

Yeah I know he was handpicked by Nulsultan. Don’t ever underestimate the other guy’s greed. Do you know what a chazer is Frank?
Tokayev makes a deal with Putin to cut him in on the action, but now Vlad’s the heavy and will be at his beck and call. Putin doesn’t help folk for free and I’m not referring to being a good neighbor. Money, resources, et al agreements were made. 
 

Yeah, I saw Xi gave him a call, which is a big tell towards the idea that things are trending towards fizzling out.

 

The Chinese know that whomever came out on top of this deal was not going to be some pro-western democrat, as is often inferred to be a possibility by our Western media, so I think they - in typical Chinese "we do not interfere in the internal affairs of others" style - were holding off to see who they'd be dealing with. 

[usmc0331horn 953]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Seems things are headed in the wrong direction.

Dozens of protesters have been killed in Kazakhstan in attacks on government buildings and at least a dozen police officers have died, including one who was found beheaded.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/apn-kazakhstan-unrest/100743000

Hungary 1956 vibes.

[Guest Lobo]

Man, their January 6th was even more lit as fuck than ours.

Remind me to call my Old Glory Insurance agent and add January 6th travel insurance to my current robot policy.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Lobo

[Brisketexan 105,095]

20 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Man, their January 6th was even more lit as fuck than ours.

Remind me to call my Old Glory Insurance agent and add January 6th travel insurance to my current robot policy.

Be sure to read the "violence by a licensed realtor" exclusion VERY carefully.

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

True, but I think it is important to point out that authors of media pieces who claim that Russia wants to recreate the USSR are woefully uninformed or have other motives for making such a generalized statement. It is a much more complicated geopolitical circumstance.
 

Russia essentially views its ex-Soviet neighbors as being one of four classifications.
 

In order of Russian desirability:

1. Most reliable: Strongly dependent upon Russia; deeply interconnected with Russia (e.g. Belarus)
2. Generally reliable, albeit with some economic ties to potential Russian adversaries like China, Turkey, and even the West (such as Western energy cos in KZ), but still strongly intertwined with Russia and thus susceptible to Russian influence above all others; ideologically consistent with Russia to a large degree; stable and predictable working relationship with Russia. These would be KZ, Armenia, the other Central Asian “Stans” (although I hate that phrase, as it connotes a region with homogenous geopolitical goals/challenges/alliances, which they are not)
3. Drifting away from traditional relationship with Russia towards deeper ties with “unfriendly” regional/superpowers (Ukraine, Georgia towards NATO; and Azerbaijan towards Turkey)
4. Outright opponents (the Baltics)
 

Russia has no desire to gobble these up into a reconstituted USSR. Russia is not economically capable of doing that, and God knows Russia doesn’t need any more sparsely populated land with poor, uneducated (and particularly non-Russian) inhabitants. Honestly, it can barely exploit its existing resources effectively, it can't project efficient management of other, non-Russian lands.
 

Let’s take “non-KZ” Central Asia, for example. It would be political suicide to annex the remaining Central Asian Republics. You are talking about millions of people who - if annexed - would  A) immediately result in billions and billions of Rubles in fresh, new obligations JUST to keep the peace/normalize living standards…Rubles that Russia simply does not have, and B) immediately result in hemorrhaging of popular support in Putin’s base of support in the Russian provinces. The provinces give Putin the benefit of the doubt on a lot of things because he is seen as a proper “Russia-first Make Russia Great Again nationalist”, but the one spot that he is vulnerable there is the perception that Moscow gets all economic benefit, while infrastructure, pensions, etc in the provinces remain low priorities to the Central Government. If provincial Russia sees the state extending itself into former Soviet republics on a formal basis, with obligations for new cash outlays, they would be much, much more likely to join in with certain urban elites who are prone to anti-Putin alternatives.
 

If Putin were to annex Central Asian countries, he would immediately be responsible for millions of people in areas with GDP per capita in the area of 1,000 USD per year (except for KZ, which is close to Russia GDP per C-wise at around 10k p/a). KYRGYZ = 1,100 USD, Tajikistan = 850 USD, Turkmenistan = 7k USD, Uzbekistan = 1700 USD).
 

That doesn’t even consider the geopolitical tensions that would occur on the “far side of the Stans” with a bunch of potential Muslim extremists now in his new USSR, which Putin has no appetite for. It would immediately pave the way for a widespread increase in popularity of Islamist parties in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, who would bog down Russian security forces at a time when they absolutely cannot afford that, as well as immediately exporting their islamist efforts straight into the Caucasus. This would be geopolitical suicide and Putin knows that. He wants stability on his underbelly…not massive geopolitical shifts. Status Quo Forever is his motto here.
 

Russia has no resources/appetite to assume these responsibilities. Honestly, same goes for non-Crimean Ukraine, but that is a different story with very different geographic and geopolitical objectives.
 

With respect to KZ itself, again, he has no desire to annex this, or to seize its ethnic-Russian enclaves. Unlike Crimea, those ethnic-Russian areas are completely worthless to Russia. They contain no resources and are essentially the shittiest parts of KZ. The only use Russia would have in them is as an irritant that it could turn on and off if the government in KZ every became hostile to Russia. But by slicing the Russian areas back into Russia, it would immediately turn KZ into a hotbed of anti-Russian vitriol, causing it immeasurable problems. Russia absolutely doesn’t want that. It would also immediately strain ties with China, which Russia is working very hard to strengthen in light of its potential geopolitical isolation on a global stage.
 

What Russia wants - if it can’t influence and dominate a country's policies completely - is to at least have a friendly ally on its borders, and it will even tolerate a neutral neighbor so long as there are no signs of it moving towards hostile, as per Ukraine. Once a place hits Category #3, it will get some form of the Little Green Men and internal tensions in the form of ethnic Russian agitation in the local Russian population. And in my opinion, Russia won’t let Category 4 occur again without direct intervention militarily with the intent not to occupy indefinitely, but rather to break apart and foment continuous chaos within its borders in order to prevent it from becoming unified in its hostility towards Russia, thus keeping it from entering NATO or hostile trade associations. (it was too weak at the time the Baltics came in to NATO to stop that).
 

But there really isn't a case to be made where Russia wants to re-assemble the USSR by invading and annexing those places wholesale.
 

How much do I love Recep Erdoğan's "The Turkish Republic is the natural successor to the Golden Horde" theory?  I'm all over that.  It has the real potential to annoy Russia and China for a very long time.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Maria Zakharova is toting the company line. Other countries, such as Serbia and Belorussia are stating foreign intelligence  interference is the cause. Sleeper cell coordination and whatnot. 

да Мария…ты обворожительная снежная королева.

[Shady Ray 1,633]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

How much do I love Recep Erdoğan's "The Turkish Republic is the natural successor to the Golden Horde" theory?  I'm all over that.  It has the real potential to annoy Russia and China for a very long time.

Heh. You know this.

 

On a somewhat related note, I live within just a few blocks from the building where a certain future-dictator with a funny little mustache lived in the early 19-teens. In fact, I regularly walk right by that building when I am taking the dog out for our evening stroll.

 

Anyway, the Turkish diaspora here absolutely love Recep. They really, really do. A few weeks ago, I was out for that stroll on an early Saturday evening when I reached this very building, when a huge Turkish wedding party was letting out down the way.

 

One used mid-2010s German luxury car after the other, all in a row, honking and blaring Turkish music, all immaculately clean with Turkish flags hanging off of one side, and flags of Recep flapping from the other, all of them with the pre-shaved version of Erdogan, as though to throw down the ultimate 'stache vs. 'stache showdown on that very block of Schleißheimerstraße.

 

That little Austrian fella would have never imagined what would would have happened to his beloved Munich, Hauptstadt der Bewegung.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

Tangent issue but I never understood why Ukraine and Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons in the 90s in an agreement with Russia. I get that maybe they didn't want to pay for a nuclear program or were somehow morally opposed to nuclear weapon in a post-Soviet world. However now they're practically stuck as a Russian puppet that unlikely can face off against Russia militarily especially without being a nuclear power. 

Did the US play a part in getting them to give up nuclear weapons due to fears of instable leadership?

[Brisketexan 105,095]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Did the US play a part in getting them to give up nuclear weapons due to fears of instable leadership?

ding ding ding. At least, as I recall that was definitely part of the play.

[Guest Lobo]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

How much do I love Recep Erdoğan's "The Turkish Republic is the natural successor to the Golden Horde" theory?  I'm all over that.  It has the real potential to annoy Russia and China for a very long time.

When I was reading Friedman's two books "Next Hundred Year" & "Next Decade"...I couldn't get over his fascination with Turkey.  Saying that with the right leadership, they would reemerge and cause trouble to their East and South again.  Anyway, kinda forgot all about it for years, and then George would bring it up in every talk he gave.  I'm still not sold on his Poland theory, but his Turkey reveal is coming to fruition.  

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Turkey’s geographical location is prime real estate. With the right government and leadership they could be a real player in the world.

And have been historically. 
They are the Cowboy fans of the world. They talk about and want to bring back the glory days when they were on top (Ottoman Empire/1990s). 
But alas their leadership is so janky the Super Bowl appearances allude them oh so easily. 
On another note, Turkish Kurdish women>>>DCCs. Yeah I said it. 

[MillerEP 30,454]

Now that Russia's there, I'm hoping that lessens the pressure on the Ukraine.

[BERT 4,358]

5 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

 

That doesn’t even consider the geopolitical tensions that would occur on the “far side of the Stans” with a bunch of potential Muslim extremists now in his new USSR, which Putin has no appetite for. It would immediately pave the way for a widespread increase in popularity of Islamist parties in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, who would bog down Russian security forces at a time when they absolutely cannot afford that, as well as immediately exporting their islamist efforts straight into the Caucasus. This would be geopolitical suicide and Putin knows that. He wants stability on his underbelly…not massive geopolitical shifts. Status Quo Forever is his motto here.
 

 

"You said Uzbekistan twice"

"I like Uzbekistan" 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

5 minutes ago, BERT said:

"You said Uzbekistan twice"

"I like Uzbekistan" 

-

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Tangent issue but I never understood why Ukraine and Kazakhstan voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons in the 90s in an agreement with Russia. I get that maybe they didn't want to pay for a nuclear program or were somehow morally opposed to nuclear weapon in a post-Soviet world. However now they're practically stuck as a Russian puppet that unlikely can face off against Russia militarily especially without being a nuclear power. 

Did the US play a part in getting them to give up nuclear weapons due to fears of instable leadership?

Neither us nor Russia had any confidence in the Ukrainian and Kazakh leadership and the time.  Both countries were so corrupt that we had very real concerns that their nuclear weapons would end up on the international arms market and going to the highest bidder (as definitely happened with conventional weapons, see generally Lord of War for an entertaining recap of that).  And neither Russia nor us knew who those weapons might be used against--Russia may have even been the more fearful given their Chechen situation at the time.

So Russia and the United States entered into the Budapest Memorandum, whereby we each agreed to guarantee Ukraine's and Kazakhstan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  And in exchange, those countries gave up their nuclear weapons.

And that issue really lurks in the background of the Ukraine dispute.  We guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity, and compare that with the joint British/French/Prussian guarantee of Belgian territorial integrity that caused Britain to enter World War I.  

But beyond prosaic questions of national honor and keeping our word, there's the real practical issue--after Ukraine and Qaddafi, how are we ever going to persuade another country not to pursue and obtain nuclear weapons?

 

38 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

Turkey’s geographical location is prime real estate. With the right government and leadership they could be a real player in the world.

And have been historically. 
They are the Cowboy fans of the world. They talk about and want to bring back the glory days when they were on top (Ottoman Empire/1990s). 
But alas their leadership is so janky the Super Bowl appearances allude them oh so easily. 
On another note, Turkish Kurdish women>>>DCCs. Yeah I said it. 

But they are a real player in the world.  I just think their plays are really underestimated/underappreciated by Americans.  

Turkey holds the key to Europe's fear of being inundated with Syrian refugees.  They can squeeze that balloon and at the same time point it at Europe.

Turkey holds the key to a ton of Russian trade, both maritime and through their pipelines.  And Turkey's interpretation of the Montreux Convention can always cause difficulties for the Russians.

And in the Middle East, the Turks know how to squeeze all of the pressure points.  And they do so frequently, with very little notice in the American media.

They're a big deal.  And if they want to start throwing their weight around--as in Azerbaijan--shit can get real interesting.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

19 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Neither us nor Russia had any confidence in the Ukrainian and Kazakh leadership and the time.  Both countries were so corrupt that we had very real concerns that their nuclear weapons would end up on the international arms market and going to the highest bidder (as definitely happened with conventional weapons, see generally Lord of War for an entertaining recap of that).  And neither Russia nor us knew who those weapons might be used against--Russia may have even been the more fearful given their Chechen situation at the time.

So Russia and the United States entered into the Budapest Memorandum, whereby we each agreed to guarantee Ukraine's and Kazakhstan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.  And in exchange, those countries gave up their nuclear weapons.

And that issue really lurks in the background of the Ukraine dispute.  We guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity, and compare that with the joint British/French/Prussian guarantee of Belgian territorial integrity that caused Britain to enter World War I.  

But beyond prosaic questions of national honor and keeping our word, there's the real practical issue--after Ukraine and Qaddafi, how are we ever going to persuade another country not to pursue and obtain nuclear weapons?

 

But they are a real player in the world.  I just think their plays are really underestimated/underappreciated by Americans.  

Turkey holds the key to Europe's fear of being inundated with Syrian refugees.  They can squeeze that balloon and at the same time point it at Europe.

Turkey holds the key to a ton of Russian trade, both maritime and through their pipelines.  And Turkey's interpretation of the Montreux Convention can always cause difficulties for the Russians.

And in the Middle East, the Turks know how to squeeze all of the pressure points.  And they do so frequently, with very little notice in the American media.

They're a big deal.  And if they want to start throwing their weight around--as in Azerbaijan--shit can get real interesting.

Agree to all of that my friend. That’s why the cowboys analogy. Yes, the boys will always make money because of brand (Turkey and their geography, and their geopolitical influences ) and they may even make the playoffs here and there. 
But them being a super power a la their days of the Ottoman Empire (super bowl appearance) won’t happen until some things change. 
A Turkish government that was a real republic and/or a democracy could wield a much stronger influence over the world. 
But alas Turkey gonna Turkey as cowboys gonna cowboy. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[Shady Ray 1,633]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But they are a real player in the world.  I just think their plays are really underestimated/underappreciated by Americans.  

Turkey holds the key to Europe's fear of being inundated with Syrian refugees.  They can squeeze that balloon and at the same time point it at Europe.

Turkey holds the key to a ton of Russian trade, both maritime and through their pipelines.  And Turkey's interpretation of the Montreux Convention can always cause difficulties for the Russians.

And in the Middle East, the Turks know how to squeeze all of the pressure points.  And they do so frequently, with very little notice in the American media.

They're a big deal.  And if they want to start throwing their weight around--as in Azerbaijan--shit can get real interesting.

Exactly. The Turks have their hands in every pie, so to speak, and they are constantly leveraging each and every one to get results in another. It really is fascinating to watch and you are right - it is underappreciated.

 

On top of your accurate point regarding their possession of Europe's balls in the Turk's vice re refugees, they also have a potent leverage point that is unique to Berlin, which is the massive Turkish diaspora here. Quite literally, Ankara can create more headaches for a German Chancellor than Paris ever could. That is therefore a huge amount of influence over the EU, at large.

 

I mean hell, Erdogan literally comes to Germany on campaign stops during Turkish election cycles and is greeted like a king, or should I say Sultan. He can say the word and have tens of thousands of nationalist Turks on the street, and, he often tells the diaspora how to vote in German elections (or, alternatively, whether to withhold votes from parties who he feels are out of line), which he often does. This doesn't impact the national scene (yet...but with the new dual-citizenship law coming under the new government, which will double the turkish vote at least) as their aren't enough eligible Turkish voters (1-2mm estimated), and the diaspora isn't a pro-Erdogan monolith. But at the local level, he can impact critical municipal races in places like Berlin or in the Rhine-Ruhr conurbation.

 

He is uniquely positioned to cause major, major headaches in Germany and he is not afraid to use it. Erdogan gave Merkel absolute fits for 15 years and her visible discomfort/meekness when dealing with him in person was often commented upon here. Dude is as wiley as they come. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Shady Ray

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

On a related Turkish note, Galatasaray vs. Fenerbahce is on my bucket list. 
If there is a Surly field trip on this, let a brotha know, as I’m in like Flynn. 

[Zepol87 9,185]

1 minute ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

On a related Turkish note, Galatasaray vs. Fenerbahce is on my bucket list. 
If there is a Surly field trip on this, let a brotha know, as I’m in like Flynn. 

Fuck yea. I want attend this also 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

14 minutes ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

On a related Turkish note, Galatasaray vs. Fenerbahce is on my bucket list. 
If there is a Surly field trip on this, let a brotha know, as I’m in like Flynn. 

This guy fucks...er, fussballs.

 

I, good sir, am also in.

[FartingMonk 3,606]

2 hours ago, JerrysJheriCurl said:

On a related Turkish note, Galatasaray vs. Fenerbahce is on my bucket list. 
If there is a Surly field trip on this, let a brotha know, as I’m in like Flynn. 

Went to gallatarsay vs betziktas.  Holy fuck.  It was like watching one of those world's scariest shows and being in the middle of it.

[DDD Dad 14,332]

3 hours ago, BERT said:

"You said Uzbekistan twice"

"I like Uzbekistan" 

 

[Johnny Sack 8,397]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Exactly. The Turks have their hands in every pie, so to speak, and they are constantly leveraging each and every one to get results in another. It really is fascinating to watch and you are right - it is underappreciated.

 

On top of your accurate point regarding their possession of Europe's balls in the Turk's vice re refugees, they also have a potent leverage point that is unique to Berlin, which is the massive Turkish diaspora here. Quite literally, Ankara can create more headaches for a German Chancellor than Paris ever could. That is therefore a huge amount of influence over the EU, at large.

 

I mean hell, Erdogan literally comes to Germany on campaign stops during Turkish election cycles and is greeted like a king, or should I say Sultan. He can say the word and have tens of thousands of nationalist Turks on the street, and, he often tells the diaspora how to vote in German elections (or, alternatively, whether to withhold votes from parties who he feels are out of line), which he often does. This doesn't impact the national scene (yet...but with the new dual-citizenship law coming under the new government, which will double the turkish vote at least) as their aren't enough eligible Turkish voters (1-2mm estimated), and the diaspora isn't a pro-Erdogan monolith. But at the local level, he can impact critical municipal races in places like Berlin or in the Rhine-Ruhr conurbation.

 

He is uniquely positioned to cause major, major headaches in Germany and he is not afraid to use it. Erdogan gave Merkel absolute fits for 15 years and her visible discomfort/meekness when dealing with him in person was often commented upon here. Dude is as wiley as they come. 

How did so many Turks end up in Germany?

And thank you all for this interesting thread.

[Parliament 14,255]

And Turkish nationals living in Germany can vote in BOTH elections?

[Shady Ray 1,633]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

How did so many Turks end up in Germany?

And thank you all for this interesting thread.

After the war, Germany was completely unable to manage the rebuilding of the country due to labor shortages. At the same time, the German economy was taking off in the Wirtschaftwunder ("Economic miracle"), which was the explosion of the German economy as it transitioned to a market economy from the immediate post-War years.

 

As you can imagine, the numbers of capable men had been decimated. At the same time, unemployment in Greece and Turkey was through the roof. So under the Konrad Adenauer government, the Germans created the Gastarbeiter (Guest Worker) program. Originally, the intention was for it to just be a program for the Greeks, but the Turks really pushed to be included, which ultimately they were. The program ran from 1955 to the mid-70s and actually ended up including some Arab countries as well, such as Morocco and Tunisia. But for the most part, it was Greeks and Turks.

 

Long story short, the Greeks ended up going home for the most part, while the Turks just stayed. German cities have huge Turkish populations as a result. They are in the third and fourth generation now, and their integration has been difficult to a large extent, but ultimately, Turks in a German city is generally as German as Apple Strudel. I don't go a single day without interacting with a half dozen Turks in any given capacity.

 

Estimates are that there are approx 8-9 million out of a total German population of approx 80 million.

[Fondren & Main 6,710]

Paging @Johnny Chimpo

[Shady Ray 1,633]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

And Turkish nationals living in Germany can vote in BOTH elections?

It is really complicated. The older generation (equivalent to our boomers, and the bulk of our Gen X) generally cannot vote here, as they are not German citizens, since they came as part of the Gastarbeiter Program (either as the worker himself, or as the young child of the worker). Germany traditionally has made dual citizenship of immigrants very tough if the original citizenship is from a non-EU country/Switzerland. Even if they have lived here for 60 years, they still aren't eligible to vote. Unless they relinquished their Turkish citizenship in favor of German citizenship, which hardly any of them do. 

 

The younger ones born here can vote in Germany, as they are citizens so long as their parent was lawfully in Germany for 8 years prior to their birth. And the Turks recognize dual citizenship through birth to a Turkish parent, so they can vote there also.

 

But this is all changing under the new government, which is going to allow a major liberalization of dual citizenship regulations. 

[InkaUtexas 25,905]

8 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

After the war, Germany was completely unable to manage the rebuilding of the country due to labor shortages. At the same time, the German economy was taking off in the Wirtschaftwunder ("Economic miracle"), which was the explosion of the German economy as it transitioned to a market economy from the immediate post-War years.

 

As you can imagine, the numbers of capable men had been decimated. At the same time, unemployment in Greece and Turkey was through the roof. So under the Konrad Adenauer government, the Germans created the Gastarbeiter (Guest Worker) program. Originally, the intention was for it to just be a program for the Greeks, but the Turks really pushed to be included, which ultimately they were. The program ran from 1955 to the mid-70s and actually ended up including some Arab countries as well, such as Morocco and Tunisia. But for the most part, it was Greeks and Turks.

 

Long story short, the Greeks ended up going home for the most part, while the Turks just stayed. German cities have huge Turkish populations as a result. They are in the third and fourth generation now, and their integration has been difficult to a large extent, but ultimately, Turks in a German city is generally as German as Apple Strudel. I don't go a single day without interacting with a half dozen Turks in any given capacity.

 

Estimates are that there are approx 8-9 million out of a total German population of approx 80 million.

And thanks to this some of the best street side Shwarma in the world. 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

And thanks to this some of the best street side Shwarma in the world. 

If you haven't stuffed your face with Turkish street food after an evening of pounding maß after maß in a dark German bierhall, have you ever truly lived?

[Message Board User 12,395]

 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

22 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Obligatory 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

4 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

This guy fucks...er, fussballs.

 

I, good sir, am also in.

Sounds like we need an international traveling Surly cabal that raises hell, drinks like fish and eats like the gluttons we are. 
In short, brings the Texas vibe to an international port near you. 

If this happens, lamentations will be heard my good men. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

22 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Yeah, this guy is full of shit. Let’s move beyond the fact that he went to go study at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), which is a training ground for Kremlin functionaries and their Western stooges, and that he was behind a pro-Trump “fact-checking website.”

1. It’s a pretty dramatic overstatement to say that ethnic Kazakhs as a whole resent Russian Orthodox and that Russia fears ethnic cleansing. That’s just not how the ethnic dynamics in the Stans work. There has been some friction, but at a remarkably low level.  The explosion that’s happened here was in the overwhelmingly Kazakh south and is all ethnic Kazakhs expressing displeasure with their ethnic Kazakh ruling class. Russians are already politically marginalized, are not an elite class anymore, and have been steadily emigrating to Russia.  They aren’t a target in this and almost any conceivable internal conflict would not be on ethnic lines. 
 

2. Russia doesn’t believe shit about Western agents or NGOs being behind this outbreak. They will absolutely blame it on them, but they don’t BELIEVE it. The idea is laughable to any Central Asia hand. Kazakhstan has long been one of the most effectively authoritarian states in the world. Civil society and NGOs don’t even exist there to repress.  The Kazakhs do not have a network of diaspora orgs working to promote opposition in Western Europe (unlike Belarus, which does) and their expatriate communities are not well connected and organized.  Foreign backed NGOs cannot operate there.
 

Everything in that guy’s Twitter feed should be taken as part of a Russian information operation. 
 

My prediction is that this will burn itself out precisely because of point 2.  All indications are that this originated as a genuine outburst of anger over fuel prices hikes.  There is no opposition to rally around and no civil society to turn to and channel. It may have been hijacked by local Kazakh clan-groups or power rivals, but not a political opposition as exists in Belarus or Ukraine. 

[InkaUtexas 25,905]

40 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

My prediction is that this will burn itself out precisely because of point 2.  All indications are that this originated as a genuine outburst of anger over fuel prices hikes.  There is no opposition to rally around and no civil society to turn to and channel. It may have been hijacked by local Kazakh clan-groups or power rivals, but not a political opposition as exists in Belarus or Ukraine. 

Good analysis. I see it the same way. CSTO "Peacekeepers" go in, bash heads, people go home. The lingering impact could be a slow burning insurgency but we are not going to see a Grozny type action. 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

Agree with @956 Worldwide. 
I could see that after the cap was lifted (greed) and Tokayev replaced the Nazarbayev folk with his own:

1. Attempt to pacify the common folk as a look I’m cleaning out corruption.

2. More funds for he and his folk. 
 

#1 didn’t do what it supposed to. #2 escalates it even more as Nazarbayev’s folk fight back after being kicked out of their no-show no-work jobs. Current corrupt government fighting with former corrupt government who put them in power. 

Full blown chaos. Tokayev fighting a two-front unrest. He only has one solution. Capitulate or call his daddy Putin.

Putin sends in the paratroopers to gain control of the situation.

Situation is fluid. 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[956 Worldwide 34,705]

Kazakhstan's president has named a new prime minister, claimed he has survived a coup, and promises Russian and CSTO troops will begin leaving over the next few days.  In the meantime, the hunt for "foreign terrorists" goes on.

Kazakh state TV released video of one such foreign terrorist.  He appeared on state TV, obviously beaten, and admitted to being a poor unemployed Kyrgyz who accepted money from shadowy figures to come to Almaty and provoke unrest.  

It turns out he is actually a well-known Kyrgyz jazz musician who regularly goes to Kazakhstan to play gigs (Almaty is kind of a regional cultural hub and is fairly free-wheeling).  The Kazakhs just needed a foreigner to beat up and coerce confessions out of and too bad for them they picked someone well known.

https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-kyrgyzstan-jazz-musician-terrorist-coup/31647760.html

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

So he's like their Duke Silver?  

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,976]

NOBODY is like Duke Silver.