2024 Presidential Election What ifs and speculation

[henrygandorf 29225]

10 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I strongly disagreed with that premise prior to the 2020 election

[Blotto 24013]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

Biden winning doesnt mean Trump wouldnt have lost to other candidates. the voter turnout wasn't because Biden was so goddamn inspirational. the voter turnout was because people in this country were sick of listening to that fat orange fuck.

['stache 22131]

18 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

I strongly disagreed with that premise prior to the 2020 election, and I still do. Biden was about my least favorite candidate out of the group for a variety of reasons, but the power brokers in the party obviously felt differently, so the message was created.

The progressives still have a lot of work to do to have any shot at a national election. I hope they keep it up, but acknowledge that voting for the more conservative boring guy is still monumentally better than what the right is putting out these days. I'm getting pretty sick of all the criticisms from the far left. The mainstream democratic voter isn't there yet, keep working on local elections and supporting someone in the primaries, but respect the system, and vote for whoever wins the primary, because the right has lost any credibility and has no ability to govern. I think a "Bernie-like" candidate will eventually win the democrat primary, it's just going to take time.

Edited January 10, 2022 by 'stache

[babysdaddy 2731]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

trump will be the candidate. biden is the only dem who can beat him. therefore, that is your matchup. 

not sure there’s ever been a less compelling leadup. 

would you like to make it compelling?  I'll bet you $5,000 and give you 3 to 1 odds that it is not Trump V. Biden.  If it's them two, I'll pay you $15k. if not, you owe me $5k.

[DDD Dad 14647]

Ban OP

[Snake Diggity 4714]

28 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 

I strongly disagreed with that premise prior to the 2020 election, and I still do. Biden was about my least favorite candidate out of the group for a variety of reasons, but the power brokers in the party obviously felt differently, so the message was created. Trump is a fucking shitstain, and a large percentage of the population acknowledges that (and some even still vote for him). I'm not specifically recommending Mark Kelly because I have no idea if he has any interest, but somebody like a Mark Kelly would be a viable option. Trump will still throw shit around like a toddler, but will look ridiculous in doing so.

But I'm also still of the mind that says Trump is less than 50% to run. He's just gonna grift and play kingmaker when its all said and done. Nobody will drive Dem voting like Trump will. I think the GOP path is easier if Trump doesnt run.  Hell, he can still basically run the country as kingmaker without actually having to be president. Just get one of his toadies in power, and focus on grifting money. 

That’s why I included the “who has been widely assumed to run ” caveat.  There are lots of Democrats I think could beat Trump.  But there are basically only 3 Democrats consistently expected to be the nominee: Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg.  And I think of those 3 only Biden has a chance against Trump.

[aggie08 21796]

Man, I don't know how the "only Biden could beat Trump" narrative grew legs. No one gives a fuck about Joe Biden other than he's not Trump, he seems relatively sane by comparison, and he's a decent human being (just tactically ignore all that weird hair sniffing stuff).

Is that really that high of a bar to meet?

[bluto 4996]

8 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Man, I don't know how the "only Biden could beat Trump" narrative grew legs. No one gives a fuck about Joe Biden other than he's not Trump, he seems relatively sane by comparison, and he's a decent human being (just tactically ignore all that weird hair sniffing stuff).

Is that really that high of a bar to meet?

Yes sadly. 

[henrygandorf 29225]

27 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

would you like to make it compelling?  I'll bet you $5,000 and give you 3 to 1 odds that it is not Trump V. Biden.  If it's them two, I'll pay you $15k. if not, you owe me $5k.

[henrygandorf 29225]

37 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Biden winning doesnt mean Trump wouldnt have lost to other candidates. the voter turnout wasn't because Biden was so goddamn inspirational. the voter turnout was because people in this country were sick of listening to that fat orange fuck.

and biden was the only one innocuous enough to loop in all the necessary voters.

i agreed with you before the election, but then i saw the results.  it was way too close considering how many people came out to vote against trump.  i've always maintained if there was any funny business in 2020, it was squarely on the trump side (every accusation, etc).  you cannot tell me that fuckface gained 12mm legitimate votes.

but if it was ~legit, and trump did get 75mm votes, then anyone claiming another republican has a chance is kidding themselves.  the lunatics came out for trump.  only trump on the ballot can cause this.  trump standing next to someone and raising their hand in the air saying "this is my candidate" doesn't do shit.  it's been proven time and again. 

[Biff Tannen 46163]

5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

and biden was the only one innocuous enough to loop in all the necessary voters.

i agreed with you before the election, but then i saw the results.  it was way too close considering how many people came out to vote against trump.  i've always maintained if there was any funny business in 2020, it was squarely on the trump side (every accusation, etc).  you cannot tell me that fuckface gained 12mm legitimate votes.

but if it was ~legit, and trump did get 75mm votes, then anyone claiming another republican has a chance is kidding themselves.  the lunatics came out for trump.  only trump on the ballot can cause this.  trump standing next to someone and raising their hand in the air saying "this is my candidate" doesn't do shit.  it's been proven time and again. 

Yep.  This still blows my fucking mind.

[aggie08 21796]

19 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

and biden was the only one innocuous enough to loop in all the necessary voters.

i agreed with you before the election, but then i saw the results.  it was way too close considering how many people came out to vote against trump.  i've always maintained if there was any funny business in 2020, it was squarely on the trump side (every accusation, etc).  you cannot tell me that fuckface gained 12mm legitimate votes.

but if it was ~legit, and trump did get 75mm votes, then anyone claiming another republican has a chance is kidding themselves.  the lunatics came out for trump.  only trump on the ballot can cause this.  trump standing next to someone and raising their hand in the air saying "this is my candidate" doesn't do shit.  it's been proven time and again. 

The other side of that, though, is the 10-15% of the usual dependable Republican base--religious, SOCIALISM!, whatever saves me $200 in taxes, etc.--who held their noses to vote for Biden will be right back to vote for ANY other candidate with an R next to his name, completely ignoring that the GOP is all in on Trumpism at this point.

Edited January 10, 2022 by aggie08

[Snake Diggity 4714]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And the other side of that, though, the 10-15% of the usual dependable Republican base--religious, SOCIALISM!, whatever saves me $200 in taxes--who held their noses to vote for Biden will be right back to vote for ANY other candidate with an R next to his name, completely ignoring that the GOP is all in on Trumpism at this point.

I think the idea is that in reviewing the last 4 elections, the number of “Trump only” voters must be greater than the number of “Biden nose-holders”.  Otherwise Romney and McCain would have fared better.  I am not sure that is the case but sadly I do think Trump is the GOP’s best hope of winning in 2024.  That said, I do think a cleaner candidate like Baker or Hogan (or even Haley) would have a good chance against Biden.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[henrygandorf 29225]

5 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And the other side of that, though, the 10-15% of the usual dependable Republican base--religious, SOCIALISM!, whatever saves me $200 in taxes--who held their noses to vote for Biden will be right back to vote for ANY other candidate with an R next to his name, completely ignoring that the GOP is all in on Trumpism at this point.

you're assuming a romney type of republican gets the nom?  let's flow chart this:

is trump running?

yes -> he gets r nom.

no -> who else will run -> who else can win -> a trumper (desantis, cruz, pompeo)

trump has such a grip on the party, i don't think a larry hogan type or anybody halfway reasonable has a chance.  if tucker carlson decides to run, he'll have a chance, and i would probably put his odds higher than any trumpers in govt to win in a general.

if you don't think this is a possibility, you haven't been paying attention.

[Blotto 24013]

6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

The other side of that, though, is the 10-15% of the usual dependable Republican base--religious, SOCIALISM!, whatever saves me $200 in taxes, etc.--who held their noses to vote for Biden will be right back to vote for ANY other candidate with an R next to his name, completely ignoring that the GOP is all in on Trumpism at this point.

Is this accepted as what happened? I figured there might have been a small percentage of the dependable GOP base that voted Biden, but not anywhere near 10-15%. Maybe i'm not using the correct search terms, but didnt have much luck locating that type of election analysis. 

[aggie08 21796]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

you're assuming a romney type of republican gets the nom?  let's flow chart this:

is trump running?

yes -> he gets r nom.

no -> who else will run -> who else can win -> a trumper (desantis, cruz, pompeo)

trump has such a grip on the party, i don't think a larry hogan type or anybody halfway reasonable has a chance.  if tucker carlson decides to run, he'll have a chance, and i would probably put his odds higher than any trumpers in govt to win in a general.

if you don't think this is a possibility, you haven't been paying attention.

I think you confused what I'm saying, and we're basically making the same point. I expect the R nominee (if Trump doesn't run) to be Trumpy as fuck. And a lot of people who begrudgingly voted Biden will happily vote for them because their name isn't technically "Trump".

[aggie08 21796]

6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Is this accepted as what happened? I figured there might have been a small percentage of the dependable GOP base that voted Biden, but not anywhere near 10-15%. Maybe i'm not using the correct search terms, but didnt have much luck locating that type of election analysis. 

Nope, just pulled it out of my ass. And it's probably being overly optimistic on my part that 1 in 10 habitual R voters said, "Hmm, this Trump dude sure does like to lie. I don't really want 4 more years of this."

[Surly Bevo 25733]

Nick Saban defeats Georgia (again) and announces his candidacy post game.  Gumps everywhere are put into massive conflict.   

[henrygandorf 29225]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I think you confused what I'm saying, and we're basically making the same point. I expect the R nominee (if Trump doesn't run) to be Trumpy as fuck. And a lot of people who begrudgingly voted Biden will happily vote for them because their name isn't technically "Trump".

and i think that people who voted for biden because he was not-trump are "smart" enough to also not vote for somebody trumpy as fuck.  they may not vote for biden again, but i don't see them voting for desantis. 

it'll be really interesting though if he doesn't run, because of the "why".  is there something with his health?  does he just decide not to and give a bullshit reason?  has he somehow been restricted through legal/governmental means (this would be extraordinarily dangerous imo)? 

he'll 100% keep holding rallies, so the question is about his messaging strategy.  it's not like he gives a shit about "issues", so i'm curious to see what it's all about, besides lining his pockets and stacking grievances.   

[Snake Diggity 4714]

4 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Nick Saban defeats Georgia (again) and announces his candidacy post game.  Gumps everywhere are put into massive conflict.   

I do wonder who could “out-Trump” Trump.  Like who could make Trumpers think twice in a head to head choice between them and Trump?  Toby Keith?  If Chris Kyle were still alive he would be a good candidate.  I’m not up to speed on NASCAR.

[tx 3 putt 78676]

trump is going to torpedo desantis in his 2022 re-election, count on it

[Satchel 6982]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It will be Trump v. Biden.

Between how fucking broken-brained we are, and Republican legislatures stacking the deck (and functionally giving the party veto power over votes from areas they don't approve of), it's a gimme -- Trump wins in 2024.

Y'all can keep talking about this, but you know those are the candidates, and you know Trump will win, so what's the point of further discussion?

Neither of these guys will be the standard bearers for their party come 2024.

[Brisketexan 106889]

1 minute ago, Satchel said:

Neither of these guys will be the standard bearers for their party come 2024.

Dude.....you're gonna have to pay Big Worm for all of his stuff you smoked.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

We may know a little more in five days when (if?) Trump speaks in Florence, Arizona on the fifteenth. The rally is to be held the same day as a rally in Phoenix for voting rights that is scheduled on what would've been Martin Luther King Jr's 93 birthday.

Trump said he is going to talk about the events of January 6th, 2021 during his speech.

[babysdaddy 2731]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

just looking for some action HG.  We can lower the amount if you'd feel more comfortable? 

[henrygandorf 29225]

12 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

just looking for some action HG.  We can lower the amount if you'd feel more comfortable? 

we're in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic and celebrities are dying left and right.  i'm not gonna put money down that two 75-80 year olds survive another 3 years.  i would also be actively rooting against that outcome.  not a good bet.

[staboner 5084]

There are 2 things that will save America from itself - A - trump dies, or B) some geopolitical shitstorm that is somehow unifying for Americans. The former just delays what is coming and the latter would be likely catastrophic anyway. 

You just don't have many ways out of it. Pandemic? Nope. Economic crash? My money is on another nope. Lots of nopes. 

And it sucks. 

If Trump runs I am afraid he wins. We all know cheating is happening. I am with @henrygandorf and @Biff Tannen on how 2020 was already way out in terms of cheating. Not only going to be worse this time around in terms of whatever the numbers say, but will also be simply violently overturned in places where the work is being done now. 

[atomheartbevo 90642]

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It will be Trump v. Biden.

Between how fucking broken-brained we are, and Republican legislatures stacking the deck (and functionally giving the party veto power over votes from areas they don't approve of), it's a gimme -- Trump wins in 2024.

Y'all can keep talking about this, but you know those are the candidates, and you know Trump will win, so what's the point of further discussion?

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Either Trump or Biden dying/suffering a debilitating illness are literally the only things that can change my predicted outcome.

You are assuming that Trump has the balls to risk losing again, whether to Biden or whoever.  This, after Republican judge after Republican judge, and multiple Republican states/state legislatures didn't have his back after the 2020 election. His brand would take a huge fucking hit with another loss, and it would severely impact his ability to fundraise, which brings us to the next point. Edit: Just to reiterate: Trump felt like those Republicans betrayed him and helped "steal" the election as much as the Dems did.

Trump has learned he can rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign donations/PAC money outside of the elections, and he can do his rallies and get the people fawning all over him without the need to be tied down to the White House (which he hated) and Presidency.

Finally, Trump spent the past 18 months or so telling his followers that the election was going to be rigged, and then that it was rigged.  Plenty of MAGA types were not keen on voting prior to Trump, particularly prior to 2020, and their God King Emperor Trump told them that he couldn't win/didn't win because the Dems can rig the elections.  If you are full-on MAGA, why show up and vote in 2024 if Trump spent the past 4 years telling you the Dems rig everything and would steal the election from him?

Edited January 10, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

We haven't gotten to the Windows version R.2 yet where inconvenient candidates, tell-all prostitutes, and fixers find themselves conveniently by an open window, so as a country we have that going for us.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

You are assuming that Trump has the balls to risk losing again, whether to Biden or whoever.  This, after Republican judge after Republican judge, and multiple Republican states/state legislatures didn't have his back after the 2020 election. His brand would take a huge fucking hit with another loss, and it would severely impact his ability to fundraise, which brings us to the next point. Edit: Just to reiterate: Trump felt like those Republicans betrayed him and helped "steal" the election as much as the Dems did.

Trump has learned he can rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign donations/PAC money outside of the elections, and he can do his rallies and get the people fawning all over him without the need to be tied down to the White House (which he hated) and Presidency.

Finally, Trump spent the past 18 months or so telling his followers that the election was going to be rigged, and then that it was rigged.  Plenty of MAGA types were not keen on voting prior to Trump, particularly prior to 2020, and their God King Emperor Trump told them that he couldn't win/didn't win because the Dems can rig the elections.  If you are full-on MAGA, why show up and vote in 2024 if Trump spent the past 4 years telling you the Dems rig everything and would steal the election from him?

You know where he's going this week? Arizona. Not important at all in future elections? And his line up is featuring gubernatorial candidate, Keri Lake, and guess who just endorsed her? Paul Gosar.

The America First platform is on its way.

[mchookem 16765]

[used2b 249]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You are assuming that Trump has the balls to risk losing again, whether to Biden or whoever.  This, after Republican judge after Republican judge, and multiple Republican states/state legislatures didn't have his back after the 2020 election. His brand would take a huge fucking hit with another loss, and it would severely impact his ability to fundraise, which brings us to the next point. Edit: Just to reiterate: Trump felt like those Republicans betrayed him and helped "steal" the election as much as the Dems did.

Trump has learned he can rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign donations/PAC money outside of the elections, and he can do his rallies and get the people fawning all over him without the need to be tied down to the White House (which he hated) and Presidency.

Finally, Trump spent the past 18 months or so telling his followers that the election was going to be rigged, and then that it was rigged.  Plenty of MAGA types were not keen on voting prior to Trump, particularly prior to 2020, and their God King Emperor Trump told them that he couldn't win/didn't win because the Dems can rig the elections.  If you are full-on MAGA, why show up and vote in 2024 if Trump spent the past 4 years telling you the Dems rig everything and would steal the election from him?

Running and winning again in 2024 will keep him and his family out of prison and will bring an end to most investigations and even the ones it doesn't won't matter because the law won't matter because it won't be enforced. So I am sure that is a factor for him.

[Pig Bellmont 8885]

Discussing 2024 in January 2022 gives me tired head

[atomheartbevo 90642]

34 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

You know where he's going this week? Arizona. Not important at all in future elections? And his line up is featuring gubernatorial candidate, Keri Lake, and guess who just endorsed her? Paul Gosar.

The America First platform is on its way.

Arizona, the same place where Trump-supported Cyber Ninjas didn't find shit to support what they (and Trump) claimed they would find.

He's not going there to run.

He's going there because there's a bunch of angry people who will give him money.

[atomheartbevo 90642]

15 minutes ago, used2b said:

Running and winning again in 2024 will keep him and his family out of prison and will bring an end to most investigations and even the ones it doesn't won't matter because the law won't matter because it won't be enforced. So I am sure that is a factor for him.

I thought this as well, and it's the only reason I think he would run again, but let's not kid ourselves - if there aren't any actual federal charges filed against he or his family by early 2024, well before the primaries, then there won't be any.

And federal office won't shield his family from the NY or other state stuff.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

I see your point, and at this time, it's spitballing because who knows what type of deals are being tossed around. Sure, Arizona is to get some more dough, but also to get that name recognition for Lake because the governor gets the machinery in place with respect to the election commission, right? They've got a ground game and it's rolling along with money coming in, and the charges are still not filed, and if he's using them and they're using him, it may not matter. right?

[Anastasis 23717]

5 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

just looking for some action HG.  We can lower the amount if you'd feel more comfortable? 

Predictit selling the no at 61 cents currently. I am maxed out on it. 

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Blotto said:

Biden winning doesnt mean Trump wouldnt have lost to other candidates. the voter turnout wasn't because Biden was so goddamn inspirational. the voter turnout was because people in this country were sick of listening to that fat orange fuck.

This.

 

Trump lost to a fucking corpse.  Bottom line.  People were not having it, regardless of who the left trotted out there.

 

This is my philosophy for 2020 and again in 2024:

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by slorch

[Satchel 6982]

Meanwhile, here’s material for the first ad Dems should make in preparation for the ‘22 midterms:

https://www.dailywire.com/news/kevin-mccarthy-im-kicking-3-democrats-off-their-committees-if-republicans-win-back-house-in-2022

[atomheartbevo 90642]

3 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I see your point, and at this time, it's spitballing because who knows what type of deals are being tossed around. Sure, Arizona is to get some more dough, but also to get that name recognition for Lake because the governor gets the machinery in place with respect to the election commission, right? They've got a ground game and it's rolling along with money coming in, and the charges are still not filed, and if he's using them and they're using him, it may not matter. right?

Some of this is not the best phrasing, and I'll apologize up front.  The line between simple grifting and campaigning can be blurry, and there is overlap.  Going where the money is also means going where you need the votes.

 For the most part, if he holds a rally in East Texas or somewhere in rural Oklahoma, he won't get as much money, because the people there know he'd carry their state, even if they didn't vote, so it doesn't matter.  And if he holds a rally in New York or California, he won't get much money, because MAGA will feel like it won't matter as well, simply because he has no chance in hell of carrying either state.

The best money for Trump right now is in battleground states, and not just because they are battleground states for 2024, but because people are angry there and angry people turn out for rallies and donate money, especially if they think he has a chance there.  And if they donate money, they'll show up and vote. 

If he were to run for President, he'd half to absolutely run a flawless campaign, but he's already tripped all over himself before he stepped out of the gate.

As I mentioned, he has constantly for the last 18 months, cast doubt on voting in America, and made many of his follower believe that the election is rigged and he has no chance.  A few months ago, he even told his followers that if Republicans don't rehash the 2020 election and give it to him, that Republicans voters will stay home.  This is what pisses off/scares Mike Rounds and Mitch McConnell.

But a mistake on the level of making his voters think their votes won't matter is the issue of vaccines.

Just within the last month, he has pissed off a really passionate part of the MAGA base.  Really pissed them off, to the point they are turning their backs on him and feel betrayed. I'm talking about him pushing the vaccine with Bill O'Reily at a campaign stop, and him pushing back against Candace Owens.  These people were invested in their horse paste and their alternate views of modern science, and Trump took a shit on them as far as they are concerned.

I honestly don't think you can underestimate the importance of these people feeling that Trump sold them out. I really don't.  And the beautiful thing is that Trump wants acknowledgement/credit for the vaccines, and unlike Groveling Ted, Trump won't back down because he wants credit, period, no matter who pushes back against him.

He simply can't count on the anti-vaxxers mattering very much, because they are pissed.  It has become an identity for many of them.

But even if he could bring those anti-vaxxers back (and note that he wasn't pushing mandates, just that he recommended the vaccine), he needs to get a serious campaign going right now.

His priority for 2022 should be making sure that DeSantis wins Florida, period.  If DeSantis loses Florida this fall, Trump is done.  Putting aside the tens of thousands of Trump supporters that probably died of COVID, Trump won by 375,000 in 2020, but he only beat Hillary by 100,000 and some change in 2016.  I have seen people argue that DeSantis losing would help Trump, because Republicans in Florida would become the opposition and might mobilize a little better in 2024.  These are close races, anything is possible.

For part of this year, and definitely for a huge chunk of 2023, he's got to be out on the campaign trail multiple times a month, and he's got to be hitting Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and I mean really getting in there - not Beto O'Rourke levels of coverage, but he's got to be getting his base really enthusiastic, and really invested in showing up to vote.

This is all really hard work as far as Trump is concerned, and it requires a very coordinated and competent campaign staff.  Right now, his rally schedule and the topics he plans to talk about reads more like a list of grievances than a serious campaign push.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

I did read that in some areas, he's not polling as well, but I am more skeptical of polls these days.

Good point about the blurry line between campaign $$ and plain old grift.

 

[gmr548 16695]

This is a pointless discussion. GOP State legislatures in AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA, and a GOP House will not certify Biden or another Democrat if they do manage to win.

[Shady Ray 1633]

17 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

if tucker carlson decides to run, he'll have a chance, and i would probably put his odds higher than any trumpers in govt to win in a general.

if you don't think this is a possibility, you haven't been paying attention.

Honest question, as I am somewhat removed from the general US political "horserace" discourse and try to avoid it until I absolutely have to, but are there actual rumblings that Carlson might throw his hat in for 2024?

[Bateshorn 9991]

23 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This is a pointless discussion. GOP State legislatures in AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA, and a GOP House will not certify Biden or another Democrat if they do manage to win.

Este.

 

There seems to be an assumption on this board that a Republican House will abide by accepted democratic norms.  They will not.

Short of a Democratic landslide in 2024, the 2022 election is going to decide who the party of the next president will be.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Bateshorn

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2153]

18 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Man, I don't know how the "only Biden could beat Trump" narrative grew legs. No one gives a fuck about Joe Biden other than he's not Trump, he seems relatively sane by comparison, and he's a decent human being (just tactically ignore all that weird hair sniffing stuff).

Is that really that high of a bar to meet?

 

19 hours ago, Blotto said:

Biden winning doesnt mean Trump wouldnt have lost to other candidates. the voter turnout wasn't because Biden was so goddamn inspirational. the voter turnout was because people in this country were sick of listening to that fat orange fuck.

Given the ultimate margins, who else wins GA? Liz? Bernie? Pete?   Cmon.  What about AZ? Biden was the right one. 

[Biff Tannen 46163]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Este.

 

There seems to be an assumption on this board that a Republican House will abide by accepted democratic norms.  They will not.

Short of a Democratic landslide in 2024, the 2022 election is going to decide who the party of the next president will be.

You're the one who works in DC right?  And you admit this being a possibility or even likelihood?  Man, we really are fucked.

[gmr548 16695]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Este.

 

There seems to be an assumption on this board that a Republican House will abide by accepted democratic norms.  They will not.

Short of a Democratic landslide in 2024, the 2022 election is going to decide who the party of the next president will be.

I think your last sentence is true if the GOP takes the House, but not necessarily true if the Democrats somehow hold it. 2022 is the difference between leaving the door cracked vs. letting the GOP lock it and walk away with the key.

Even if the Democrats do keep the House, they still have to 1.) Win the Presidential election in 2024; who knows what the environment will look like in three years, but they'd be underdogs today, even in a fair fight. WI, MI, and PA are in the realm of 3-5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. That number could continue to grow. Would you take D +5 or more in the popular vote right now? 2.) Even if Democrats gold the House and manage to put together wins in states with 270+ EV, you still rely on rust belt states that will likely have GOP trifectas that didn't exist in 2020. I do not see a compelling reason to believe they would accept a Democratic win with complete control.

There isn't going to be a comprehensive voting rights package that addresses subversion, and absent that, the prospect of a Democratic victory in 2024 requires both threading the needle on a narrow path to victory and the GOP choosing to do the right thing when the option for ratfuckery is on the table.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

48 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This is a pointless discussion. GOP State legislatures in AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA, and a GOP House will not certify Biden or another Democrat if they do manage to win.

I wonder how the country would react in this scenario.  The MAGA/Q fuckers rioted with zero credible evidence of election fraud.  What will the general public (or at least those who didn’t vote for the GOP candidate) do if it’s blatantly obvious that state legislatures overturned the results of a fair election?

Will people actually just stand by and let that happen? Will our international allies?

Edited January 11, 2022 by Snake Diggity

[Bateshorn 9991]

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I think your last sentence is true if the GOP takes the House, but not necessarily true if the Democrats somehow hold it. 2022 is the difference between leaving the door cracked vs. letting the GOP lock it and walk away with the key.

Even if the Democrats do keep the House, they still have to 1.) Win the Presidential election in 2024; who knows what the environment will look like in three years, but they'd be underdogs today, even in a fair fight. WI, MI, and PA are in the realm of 3-5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. That number could continue to grow. Would you take D +5 or more in the popular vote right now? 2.) Even if Democrats gold the House and manage to put together wins in states with 270+ EV, you still rely on rust belt states that will likely have GOP trifectas that didn't exist in 2020. I do not see a compelling reason to believe they would accept a Democratic win with complete control.

There isn't going to be a comprehensive voting rights package that addresses subversion, and absent that, the prospect of a Democratic victory in 2024 requires both threading the needle on a narrow path to victory and the GOP choosing to do the right thing when the option for ratfuckery is on the table.

Correct.  The Dems, if they hold the House, will abide by the traditional electoral process. The GOP will not. And for the Dems to keep democracy alive, they need to pick up a few more Senate seats to kill the filibuster and pass electoral reforms to keep any shot of a dem president in 2024 alive.
 

Why do you think Steve Bannon’s new passion is putting MAGA heads and neo fascists in every county and precinct election supervisor position?  It’s not because he gives a fuck about the integrity of the ballot. 
 

Even if the Democrats manage to Yahtzee another House Majority, the State legislatures in AZ, GA, WI, MI, and PA may over rule the will of their voters and appoint electors. And this Supreme Court will let them do it.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Bateshorn

[Chuckie Finster 23044]

22 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I wonder how the country would react in this scenario.  The MAGA/Q fuckers rioted with zero credible evidence of election fraud.  What will the general public (or at least those who didn’t vote for the GOP candidate) do if it’s blatantly obvious that state legislatures overturned the results of a fair election?

Will people actually just stand by and let that happen? Will our international allies?

A lot of mad Facebook posts.  Some marching.  A lot of Kyle Rittenhouses.