2024 Presidential Election What ifs and speculation

[gmr548 16514]

A lot of mad Facebook posts.  Some marching.  A lot of Kyle Rittenhouses.

With the caveat that it would be unprecedented in all of our lives and I don’t even really know how I’d react, let alone society at large, this would be my guess if the economy is good. If people are comfortable, there will be big protests, blue states will be more aggressive in going their own way on policy, but I think that would be the limit if it domestically.

Now if times are bad (of course, Biden or his successor aren’t going to win anyway if that’s the case), or they go bad because, say, there’s a fundamental shift in the way the world treats us - economic sanctions, transition away from the dollar as a reserve due to political instability - that’s where things can get more volatile. I do think there’s too much money involved for this country to break up. We’re far more likely to plod along as a too big to fail, failed state.

[wildcat09 29257]

I think the "corporations won't let us fail" crowd fundamentally misunderstands corporate decision-making. In short, it's very narrowly focused and fairly stupid. It's why every corporation got blindsided by covid in 2020 the day the stock market finally reacted to it. They all assumed because nobody else was obviously freaking out that there was nothing to worry about. They'll do the same thing with regard to fascism and, when everyone starts freaking out, they'll realize it's too late and that it's better to stay quiet and adjust to the new order.

[JimmyJames 12271]

I’m no expert on it but it’s my understanding that the 2022 lame duck house doesn’t get to potentially overrule the voters in 2024 it’s the 2024 elected house. Is that not correct? 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Honest question, as I am somewhat removed from the general US political "horserace" discourse and try to avoid it until I absolutely have to, but are there actual rumblings that Carlson might throw his hat in for 2024?

There’s nothing concrete that I’ve seen, which is not surprising since no potential Trumpy GOP candidate will say shit unless/until it’s certain that Trump isn’t going to be the nominee.  If/when Trump is for sure out, there will be a mad dash of fuckers (probably more than a dozen candidates who actually think they can win) rushing in to take his crown, and it would not surprise me at all if Carlson was in that mix.  For now I think Haley is uniquely positioned to come out on top of that scrum but who knows.

[Bateshorn 9904]

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m no expert on it but it’s my understanding that the 2022 lame duck house doesn’t get to potentially overrule the voters in 2024 it’s the 2024 elected house. Is that not correct? 

That is correct, actually.  My Bad. People do not realize how breathtakingly close Trump came to stealing the 2020 election.  You get some weird turnouts in some VA and other razor thin seats, and the newly sworn in 117th could have rejected the electors from the challenged states and sent the election to the House floor ala 1876.
 

 I guess my point is it’s probably this Congress or bust for electoral reforms, given where the 22 midterms appear headed

[Brisketexan 104626]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

This is a pointless discussion. GOP State legislatures in AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA, and a GOP House will not certify Biden or another Democrat if they do manage to win.

 

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Este.

 

There seems to be an assumption on this board that a Republican House will abide by accepted democratic norms.  They will not.

Short of a Democratic landslide in 2024, the 2022 election is going to decide who the party of the next president will be.

 

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I wonder how the country would react in this scenario.  The MAGA/Q fuckers rioted with zero credible evidence of election fraud.  What will the general public (or at least those who didn’t vote for the GOP candidate) do if it’s blatantly obvious that state legislatures overturned the results of a fair election?

Will people actually just stand by and let that happen? Will our international allies?

 

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Correct.  The Dems, if they hold the House, will abide by the traditional electoral process. The GOP will not. And for the Dems to keep democracy alive, they need to pick up a few more Senate seats to kill the filibuster and pass electoral reforms to keep any shot of a dem president in 2024 alive.
 

Why do you think Steve Bannon’s new passion is putting MAGA heads and neo fascists in every county and precinct election supervisor position?  It’s not because he gives a fuck about the integrity of the ballot. 
 

Even if the Democrats manage to Yahtzee another House Majority, the State legislatures in AZ, GA, WI, MI, and PA may over rule the will of their voters and appoint electors. And this Supreme Court will let them do it.

All of these posts above are on-point.

Any prediction for the election that assumes that the GQP will abide by ANY democratic norms is a fever dream disconnected from reality.  The GQP has discovered and embraced what every authoritarian leader ever figured out: it doesn't matter how the people voted if I just declare myself the winner and occupy the seat of power.  "I'm president because I say so" works -- it has worked a LOT....in "shithole countries."  Of which we are now one.

[wildcat09 29257]

41 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That is correct, actually.  My Bad. People do not realize how breathtakingly close Trump came to stealing the 2020 election.  You get some weird turnouts in some VA and other razor thin seats, and the newly sworn in 117th could have rejected the electors from the challenged states and sent the election to the House floor ala 1876.
 

 I guess my point is it’s probably this Congress or bust for electoral reforms, given where the 22 midterms appear headed

It's really cool to think about how much needs to get done this year and how little energy there seems to be from much of the Democratic party about doing any of it. And lost in all this discussion is the very real possibility that Feinstein or Leahy kicks the bucket and literally zero ends up getting done. 

[gmr548 16514]

I think the "corporations won't let us fail" crowd fundamentally misunderstands corporate decision-making. In short, it's very narrowly focused and fairly stupid. It's why every corporation got blindsided by covid in 2020 the day the stock market finally reacted to it. They all assumed because nobody else was obviously freaking out that there was nothing to worry about. They'll do the same thing with regard to fascism and, when everyone starts freaking out, they'll realize it's too late and that it's better to stay quiet and adjust to the new order.

I don’t dispute this. My post was more referring to outcomes that get thrown around like a shooting civil war or a full on split into two or three countries.

[Brisketexan 104626]

More and more credible outside experts and observers are predicting that this country will be governed by a right wing dictatorship by 2030.

They are correct.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/09/opinions/canadians-fear-us-democracy-collapse-obeidallah/index.html

Quote

"The United States is coming to an end. The question is how." Those are the jarring opening lines of Canadian author Stephen Marche's new book, "The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future." Released the same week as the anniversary of the January 6 attack on our Capitol that signaled how dangerous our political polarization has become, Marche's book shares different scenarios of how the United States could collapse.

Dean Obeidallah

Marche isn't the only Canadian worried about their southern neighbor's future. Just days before Marche's book released, political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon -- the executive director of the Cascade Institute, which focuses on ways to address threats to society -- penned a powerful op-ed in Canada's "Globe and Mail" that begins with a similar warning. "By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence," Homer-Dixon writes. "By 2030, if not sooner," he adds, "the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship."

As Americans, our first instinct when a person from outside of the US says something critical of our nation is often to dismiss the comment (or mock their country; be honest!). In this case, though, neither Marche nor Homer-Dixon wrote their words to belittle America or to make Canadians feel better about their country.

In fact, as Marche explained on my SiriusXM radio show last week, it's the opposite: Marche wrote his book because he "loves" the US after working and living within its borders off and on for years. His hope, he says, is to warn Americans of where the nation is going before it's too late.

The question the GOP must answer about January 6

In the case of Homer-Dixon, the warning is even more unnerving because the column is addressed not to Americans but to his fellow Canadians, to prepare them for what may be heading their way if America's democracy does collapse. Homer-Dixon bluntly cautions his compatriots: "A terrible storm is coming from the south, and Canada is woefully unprepared."

When Canadians start to counsel one another on the threat posed to American democracy, you know we're in a dire position. This is not about scoring political points; rather, it emanates from a place of sincere concern for their own nation.

 

[henrygandorf 29177]

what i don't understand is that some of the people who are worried about gqp/bannon's plan to install trump flunkies in state-level election oversight positions are also unsure if trump is running in 2024.  you don't put the ball on the tee unless you're going to hit it.

that's a golf reference, because trump cheats at golf.  it's also a tee ball reference, because trump acts like a 5 year old.

[Brisketexan 104626]

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

what i don't understand is that some of the people who are worried about gqp/bannon's plan to install trump flunkies in state-level election oversight positions are also unsure if trump is running in 2024.  you don't put the ball on the tee unless you're going to hit it.

that's a golf reference, because trump cheats at golf.  it's also a tee ball reference, because trump acts like a 5 year old.

These.

When your enemy tells you what they are going to do and why they are going to do it, and then THEY ACTUALLY DO THOSE THINGS, you should fucking believe them and take the threat seriously.

But we won't.

I'm fucking trapped with a choice of a) a party that wants to end this country as a democratic republic, and b) a party that won't lift a goddamned finger to stop them.

It's fucking insane, but here we are.

[atomheartbevo 89448]

9 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I wonder how the country would react in this scenario.  The MAGA/Q fuckers rioted with zero credible evidence of election fraud.  What will the general public (or at least those who didn’t vote for the GOP candidate) do if it’s blatantly obvious that state legislatures overturned the results of a fair election?

Will people actually just stand by and let that happen? Will our international allies?

The riots from the left would make the MAGA/Q idiots on January 6 pale in comparison.  700 arrested over the January 6 riot?  Try 7,000 arrested in one state.  

Most of the MAGA/Q crowd are ultimately cowards and lazy to boot.  Trump has spent months telling them that if he lost, it's because it was stolen.  He then spent a year telling them the election was stolen.

What was the grand MAGA/Q response to Trump telling them that the Presidency was stolen from him?  700 real estate agents/basement dwellers/shitty lawyers/etc. getting arrested in D.C. alongside a few deaths.  That's it.  And many of these fuckers are bawling and wailing on the witness stand that they didn't know what they were doing and were just trying to please Daddy Trump, or that they are mentally ill and can't be held accountable for their actions.

None of these fuckers were willing to go full-on suicide bomber.  None of them were willing to get their little militia together and try and storm Congress or the White House.  They claim that Babbit was executed in the Capitol, but I don't see any of them getting together and trying to off some Capitol security.

The fact is, it exposed a dirty little secret for the GOP: Most of their followers just want things to stay the same and they don't want to rock the boat, and they would rather act out on social media than anything that could jeopardize their jobs or bank accounts.

 

[atomheartbevo 89448]

For those you who keep wailing about some kind of civil war, as has been pointed out, it's not going to be a civil war, it's going to be dozens of civil wars.

And if shit starts, kiss hospitals,  banking, police, fire/EMS service, electricity, water and sewer service, internet service, food distribution, gas distribution, etc. all goodbye, because even minor disturbances will force people to stay in their homes and stay away from the streets/work.

This won't be like the pandemic or a winter storm where essential workers were still able to mostly keep a lot of things running.

And if you think the people will tolerate MAGA running around and trying to fuck everything up and shut everything down, think again.   You think a cop wants to lose access to his bank account or hospital service or whatever?  He's going to be home protecting his shit, just like everybody else.

But like I said above, those fucking MAGA cowards aren't doing shit to try and get Biden out of office or free their hundreds of brethren who were arrested over January 6th, so expecting them to rise up in some great civil war is about as crazy as expecting them to try and free their Jan. 6 buddies.

[Biff Tannen 45496]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

For those you who keep wailing about some kind of civil war, as has been pointed out, it's not going to be a civil war, it's going to be dozens of civil wars.

And if shit starts, kiss hospitals,  banking, police, fire/EMS service, electricity, water and sewer service, internet service, food distribution, gas distribution, etc. all goodbye, because even minor disturbances will force people to stay in their homes and stay away from the streets/work.

This won't be like the pandemic or a winter storm where essential workers were still able to mostly keep a lot of things running.

And if you think the people will tolerate MAGA running around and trying to fuck everything up and shut everything down, think again.   You think a cop wants to lose access to his bank account or hospital service or whatever?  He's going to be home protecting his shit, just like everybody else.

But like I said above, those fucking MAGA cowards aren't doing shit to try and get Biden out of office or free their hundreds of brethren who were arrested over January 6th, so expecting them to rise up in some great civil war is about as crazy as expecting them to try and free their Jan. 6 buddies.

A lot of words to basically say this

[Brisketexan 104626]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

A lot of words to basically say this

Take a look at the roster of leaders and players who led the fascist rise to power in Italy and Germany.  Fucking clowns, losers, and nobodies.  Aided and abetted by utterly stupid fucking ACTUAL leaders who underestimated the threat and/or thought they could coopt the rising fascist populist movement to serve their own political/personal goals.

Sound familiar?

[Biff Tannen 45496]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Take a look at the roster of leaders and players who led the fascist rise to power in Italy and Germany.  Fucking clowns, losers, and nobodies.  Aided and abetted by utterly stupid fucking ACTUAL leaders who underestimated the threat and/or thought they could coopt the rising fascist populist movement to serve their own political/personal goals.

Sound familiar?

Oh I'm not disagreeing.  Just wanted to post Walter.

[Brisketexan 104626]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Oh I'm not disagreeing.  Just wanted to post Walter.

Always fair.

Also, we would be better off if the Republicans instead nominated a nice marmot.  Would be a huge step up.

[Guest]

On 1/11/2022 at 11:06 AM, henrygandorf said:

what i don't understand is that some of the people who are worried about gqp/bannon's plan to install trump flunkies in state-level election oversight positions are also unsure if trump is running in 2024.  you don't put the ball on the tee unless you're going to hit it.

that's a golf reference, because trump cheats at golf.  it's also a tee ball reference, because trump acts like a 5 year old.

There is virtually zero chance Trump isn't running in 2024.

It'll just be another installment of that whole bullshit cult giving the left an intentional walk.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5784]

Liberal-conservative Dwayne Johnson VS conservative-liberal Vin Diesel. The cable news networks won't be able to figure out who to tell us to hate, and without our media thinking for us, we will just start pew pewing everyone. 

[Guest]

I live my life one election at a time. Nothing else matters: not the mortgage, not the store, not my team and all their bullshit. If the right guy wins, everything is free!

Edited January 13, 2022 by slorch

[Jhawkmvp 1489]

Some early 2024 polls:

Biden vs Trump or DeSantis

Quote

President Biden is leading former President Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in two hypothetical, head-to-head match-ups for the 2024 presidential election, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by Marquette Law School, found that 43 percent of adults nationwide would support Biden if the 2024 presidential election were held today, while 33 percent would vote for Trump in a one-on-one match-up.

Sixteen percent said they would choose a different candidate, while 6 percent said they would not vote.

In a hypothetical race against DeSantis, however, Biden polls slightly worse: 41 percent of adults nationwide said they would throw their support behind Biden, while 33 percent would support DeSantis.

Eighteen percent of respondents said they would vote for a different candidate, and 8 percent said they would not cast a ballot.

Only 29 percent of those polled said they want to see Trump run for president again in 2024, while 71 percent said they did not want to see him seek a second term.

Republican Primary

Quote

A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey shared with The Hill earlier this week found that in a hypothetical eight-person GOP primary, Trump raked in 57 percent support followed by DeSantis at 11 percent and former Vice President Mike Pence at 11 percent. No other candidate in the poll pulled in double-digit support.

A much closer poll of Biden vs Trump

Quote

A Wednesday poll from Politico and Morning Consult found that 45 percent of registered voters would support Biden if the election were held today, and 44 percent would support Trump, which would make for a tight rematch. Eleven percent said they would not vote.