2022 NBA Draft

[TonyTexas 10518]

This is especially big for the Rockets, who can pick no worse than 5th. Now guaranteed one of Holmgren, Smith, Banchero, Ivey or Sharpe

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

I'm going to spitball a bit on this draft... apologies for the long cat. I have watched limited film on most of these dudes, so this is a lot of kneejerk but here goes.

Top of my draft looks like:

1. Jabari Smith - moves great, solid defender, great range for a big man. I don't see how this guy isn't one of the best stretch fours in the league from day 1.
2. Jaden Ivey - complete freak of an athlete. Certain guys jump off the screen because of their athleticism (Vince Carter, Ja Morant) and he's one of them.
3. Holmgren - I think the two guys above him are more sure things, but people as big as he is aren't supposed to be that skilled. I guess folks are down on him because he didn't dominate at Gonzaga but I thought it was telling (in a good way) how he deferred to their vets and let the game come to him. It's going to be interesting to see which GM lets his nuts hang on this pick.
4. Banchero - extremely talented offensive player for his size. Not a huge fan of his motor and defense but he's going to get you points if you run offense through him.

Those should be the top 4, in no particular order but after that... it's going to be a crap shoot. 

I'm down on Keegan Murray. Most drafts have him around 5 or 6, but I think he's going to struggle to get his shot in the NBA and while he's got good wingspan and blocks a lot of shots, he doesn't seem to move that great laterally and is out of position a bunch. He put up great numbers but at a high usage rate and he's also almost 22 years old. He gives me Obi Toppen vibes. Pass.

Sharpe is a bit of a wildcard. I can't find very good film on him, although I haven't looked too hard. He looks the part, though, of your prototypical 2 guard. He has good size, good handles, a pretty sweet looking stroke and can finish at the rim. I have no idea if he can or will play defense, or if he can pass/create for his teammates. I need more than him dunking on high school guys and hitting step back threes before I can even make a judgement. Workouts and interviews will be huge for him.

@Message Board User I do like Tari Eason from LSU also. If you can fix his shot and get him to be less of a spaz, I think he's going to be a very good pro. I'm also high on Jeremey Sochon from Baylor. He's another guy that needs his jumpshot rebuilt, but if you can do that then you've got a really versatile guy who can help you win in so many different ways. Even if his shot never gets fixed, he's an NBA player.  I would be thrilled if the Spurs nabbed either of them if they get stuck picking at 9. Although he plays a different position, Dyson Daniels kind of fits into that mold, too. He needs to get his shot ironed out but he can help you in a lot of different ways. I really like Daniels. 

AJ Griffin, I think at worst is going to be a solid 3-and-D guy. I don't know that his upside is that great beyond that.

Mathurin from Arizona seems like a great athlete but just an okay basketball player. 

I don't understand TyTy Washington being projected in the top 15. I'm probably missing the boat but he's undersized for a shooting guard, has a funky release on his jumper, not a great athlete, nor a great set up man, either. I guess he was hurt but I'm not impressed. 

I do like Jalen Duren's potential. 18 year olds just aren't supposed to be built like that. If he is athletic enough to move his feet and stay in front of smaller guys on switches, then he could be special. In that same vein, I want to like Mark Williams from Duke, but I think he's going to get played off the floor in small ball lineups. He does move pretty well for a big guy and he's a really good shot blocker and rebounder, and a pretty good passer too, but it's not 1985. 

I'm meh on Johnny Davis from Wisconsin. Another high usage guy that I don't know will translate.

One guy who I love is Ousmane Dieng from France. He's projected late first/early second round, but I think he's going to shoot up the boards.  6'9" guy with crazy long arms who can play on the perimeter and is really young. 

[Message Board User 12395]

58 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

2. Jaden Ivey - complete freak of an athlete. Certain guys jump off the screen because of their athleticism (Vince Carter, Ja Morant) and he's one of them.

Agreed.  In fact, if the Cavs win the jackpot I hope Ivey is the guy as he is the perfect match of talent + need for the team.  Could end up being better than Chet, Paolo, and Jabari.

59 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

3. Holmgren - I think the two guys above him are more sure things, but people as big as he is aren't supposed to be that skilled. I guess folks are down on him because he didn't dominate at Gonzaga but I thought it was telling (in a good way) how he deferred to their vets and let the game come to him. It's going to be interesting to see which GM lets his nuts hang on this pick.

It's completely unfair but I think that people remember Shawn Bradley, and because Chet looks like Bradley.  I think Chet will be good, but I'd probably have him 4th among the top 4.

 

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I do like Tari Eason from LSU also. If you can fix his shot and get him to be less of a spaz, I think he's going to be a very good pro.

If the Cavs stay at 14, Eason is the guy I pray they take if available.  In fact, I'd offer up Okoro and maybe both 2nd rounders (the Cavs have 2 this year) to move up a couple spots to 10 or so just to make sure.  He doesn't facilitate and handle the ball as well as Scottie Barnes but he's already a better shooter and can be a witch on defense.  Looking at his body of work I'm really surprised to see him mocked as low as 20 but I hope that's the case that he's still around in the late lotto.

 

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm also high on Jeremey Sochon from Baylor. He's another guy that needs his jumpshot rebuilt, but if you can do that then you've got a really versatile guy who can help you win in so many different ways. Even if his shot never gets fixed, he's an NBA player. 

Here's where we diverge - I really don't like Sochan.  In all the Baylor games I watched this year, I can't ever recall thinking this guy was the best player on the floor or that he was a future top 10 pick.  Maybe I'm missing something.  The comparison I've seen is Draymond and I guess if you surround him with a few all time greats (like Draymond has benefitted from) he could be useful but the jumpshot seems irrevocably broken.

The Isaac Okoro experience has completely soured me on "maybe we can fix his jumper" or "maybe he can learn to dribble."

 

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

AJ Griffin, I think at worst is going to be a solid 3-and-D guy. I don't know that his upside is that great beyond that.

I don't think he has much upside beyond 3 and D.  His handles are just not there.  I was probably more disappointed in him than any other Duke player in the tournament.  I wanted to like him because he's a wing (something the Cavs desperately need) but it's not happening.

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

One guy who I love is Ousmane Dieng from France. He's projected late first/early second round, but I think he's going to shoot up the boards.  6'9" guy with crazy long arms who can play on the perimeter and is really young. 

Will need to dive deeper on this guy as I saw him mocked to the Cavs recently. 

Ochai Agbaji is another guy I've seen mocked to the Cavs and it makes some sense as he's already a pretty good shooter, but he's 22 years old and not a great athlete so very limited upside there.  But he's still better than Okoro.

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

Yeah, Sharpe is the interesting one.  I can see him blowing people away in workouts and the combine.  I’ve read that had he played this year, he’d easily be in the top 3 but what GM is going to roll the dice on him?  Then again, he projects like Jalen Green and all he had was 15 G League games or something.  If OKC were at 4, I could see them taking him over Ivey if the workout and interviews go well.

I think this draft really depends on need but the top drafting teams all need bigs.

[Message Board User 12395]

15 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, Sharpe is the interesting one.  I can see him blowing people away in workouts and the combine.  I’ve read that had he played this year, he’d easily be in the top 3 but what GM is going to roll the dice on him?  Then again, he projects like Jalen Green and all he had was 15 G League games or something.  If OKC were at 4, I could see them taking him over Ivey if the workout and interviews go well.

 

Schmitz posted about him today - as you can imagine for someone who has no college tape, opinions are all over the place on this guy.  I think I saw an anonymous GM say he thinks Sharpe will be the best player in the draft...but who knows.

 

 

[Message Board User 12395]

More praise for Sharpe.

 

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

My prediction.  If Okie City ends up at 4, they'll take Sharpe over Ivey. 

[Michael Knight 12989]

Anyone who drafts this motherfucking Canadian who didn't play a single minute at Kentucky in the top 5 deserves to get fucked. He is why perennial lottery teams stay in the lottery.

[Fud 9552]

Yeah you should instead draft.. Keagan Murray? 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

16 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

Anyone who drafts this motherfucking Canadian who didn't play a single minute at Kentucky in the top 5 deserves to get fucked. He is why perennial lottery teams stay in the lottery.

Speaking of Canadians that haven't played any college ball, Leonard Miller declared for the draft although he's still maintaining his eligibility. He's a late bloomer who has grown something like 7 inches in the last year or so. Could be the steal of the draft. Or the next Thon Maker. 

 

[Michael Knight 12989]

6 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Speaking of Canadians that haven't played any college ball, Leonard Miller declared for the draft although he's still maintaining his eligibility. He's a late bloomer who has grown something like 7 inches in the last year or so. Could be the steal of the draft. Or the next Thon Maker. 

 

Who the hell is advising these kids, the money is out there with NIL. He could get paid and even develop his game instead of being ground up and washed out of the league in a couple years. My one hope is that NIL destroys these AAU hucksters who have to go work at Sonic instead.

[SilasCoade 2622]

9 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Who the hell is advising these kids, the money is out there with NIL. He could get paid and even develop his game instead of being ground up and washed out of the league in a couple years. My one hope is that NIL destroys these AAU hucksters who have to go work at Sonic instead.

Why would adding money into the system drive out the parasites? They just got a new revenue stream getting companies to pay them to send kids their way for NIL deals. At the worst it just lets them do the same business out in the open that they've been doing in the shade for years.

[Message Board User 12395]

The Ringer updated their mock draft today - and you Spurs fans will be interested to know that in their run of the lottery...well just look.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

1 - Spurs - Jabari 

2 - OKC - Chet

3 - Portland - Banchero

4 - Sacramento - Sharpe

5 - Houston - Ivey

6 - Orlando - AJ

7 - Detroit - Kegan Murray

8 - Indy - Duren

9 - NOLA - Johnny Davis

10 - Wiz - Mathurin

11 - Knicks - Sochan

12 - OKC - Agbaji

13 - Charlotte - Daniels

14 - Cavs - Dieng

15 - Charlotte - Eason

Edited April 25, 2022 by Message Board User

[BigOrange1 6442]

nba mock drafts are so pointless pre lottery.  

[shadow_operative 15932]

a jalen green/jaden ivy back court would be insanely fast an athletic. they'd probably dominate a track and field meet with every other back court duo in the league. 

[MuellerHorn 4256]

21 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

Anyone who drafts this motherfucking Canadian who didn't play a single minute at Kentucky in the top 5 deserves to get fucked. He is why perennial lottery teams stay in the lottery.

Well, look who he's slotted for in the mock draft above my post. That would fit your narrative.

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

 

[Fud 9552]

 

[Fud 9552]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

This is my guy - praying he lasts until 14 but I just think he's going to fly up the draft boards over the next 6 weeks.

 

[ztejas 43522]

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

This is my guy - praying he lasts until 14 but I just think he's going to fly up the draft boards over the next 6 weeks.

 

Hah. My brother just brought this dude up to me. I'm on board. Got some Scottie Barnes to him. 

[Message Board User 12395]

Not 2022, but this guy needs to be on everyone's radar.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19138]

The more I think about it the more I like Chet #1 and Ivey #2. That might belong in the unpopular opinions you have thread but 7 foot tall playmakers that can also shoot are a huge win for any system, and I think Ivey has speed and athleticism that’s pretty special. I don’t love with of the other guys in the top 4. Go with the Auburn kid before the Duke kid. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

He's at the F1 in Miami with international celebrities.  Two months from now he might be an a S'Lobster in Okie City.

[Message Board User 12395]

I'll allow this.

 

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

I'm highly skeptical of Jabari Smith's star potential in the league.  I admit he's a great 3pt shooter, but I'm not exactly sure he'll be much more than a starting level stretch 4 or a 3 and D type player.  Jonathan Tjarks mentioned awhile back on one of his podcast that a big predictor of elite level play in the NBA is 2pt FG% in college. And for being a big Jabari Smith shoots a woeful 43.5% on 2pt FGs. That's absolutely abysmal for a big.  For comparison 6'4" guard, Jaden Ivey shoots 53.1% on 2pt FGs. Smith's anemic 2pt FG% is instructive of his mindset, particularly his lack of aggression and his willingness to settle.  In other words he may be too soft to grow into an elite player, but who knows. 

Edited May 10, 2022 by Catdaddyhorn

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

7 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

I'm highly skeptical of Jabari Smith's star potential in the league.  I admit he's a great 3pt shooter, but I'm not exactly sure he'll be much more than a starting level stretch 4 or a 3 and D type player.  Jonathan Tjarks mentioned awhile back on one of his podcast that a big predictor of elite level play in the NBA is 2pt FG% in college. And for being a big Jabari Smith shoots a woeful 43.5% on 2pt FGs. That's absolutely abysmal for a big.  For comparison 6'4" guard, Jaden Ivey shoots 53.1% on 2pt FGs. Smith's anemic 2pt FG% is instructive of his mindset, particularly his lack of aggression and his willingness to settle.  In other words he may be too soft to grow into an elite player, but who knows. 

I'm sure there is a high correlation between 2 pt fg% and nba success, but did he make any comparisons to past players that did everything else he does at an elite level? You can't just look at one statistic and throw everything else out. I think the low fg% is more a function of shot selection and his taking a lot of difficult contested shots in the mid range.

I'd almost contend that it is anomaly because if you can shoot it as well as he does from three and fts, then you can surely shoot a two pointer. But even if he remains below average from there, that is a guy who can help you in so many ways. He's a fantastic defensive big that will never be played off the floor in small ball lineups and who is a deadly three point shooter.

Maybe he's truly a weak finisher at the rim but he's also really, really young. He's going to get stronger. He's going to get smarter with regard to shot selection and the NBA game is so much more open that he should have more space to operate. When I watch him get after it on defense, I don't think there is anything weak about his mindset. To me, he's Evan Mobley with less shot blocking but better shooting. 

[SilasCoade 2622]

Let's also realize that the game has changed over time. It may be that 2pt FG% in college no longer correlates with future NBA success to the same degree given the much higher value placed on 3pt FGs in the modern NBA.

[Fud 9552]

12 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Smith's anemic 2pt FG% is instructive of his mindset, particularly his lack of aggression and his willingness to settle.  In other words he may be too soft to grow into an elite player, but who knows. 

He played with two of the biggest idiot guards in the country, and also had a center clogging up the lane. Your concerns might be warranted, but all of these guys have warts

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

I think with Jabari, the consensus is he definitely has the highest floor.  He could step in right now and score 15-18 ppg and be a legit deep threat along with rebounding.  That could also be his ceiling, thought, but in regards to the 2 point %, don't discount college spacing being non existent.  He could also easily put on another 20 pounds.  Chet might have the lowest floor/risk to be honest.  People seem to think Paolo, Ivey, and maybe Sharpe had the highest potential ceiling, although there is some risk with each of them.

[Catdaddyhorn 3447]

11 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'm sure there is a high correlation between 2 pt fg% and nba success, but did he make any comparisons to past players that did everything else he does at an elite level? You can't just look at one statistic and throw everything else out. I think the low fg% is more a function of shot selection and his taking a lot of difficult contested shots in the mid range.

I'd almost contend that it is anomaly because if you can shoot it as well as he does from three and fts, then you can surely shoot a two pointer. But even if he remains below average from there, that is a guy who can help you in so many ways. He's a fantastic defensive big that will never be played off the floor in small ball lineups and who is a deadly three point shooter.

Maybe he's truly a weak finisher at the rim but he's also really, really young. He's going to get stronger. He's going to get smarter with regard to shot selection and the NBA game is so much more open that he should have more space to operate. When I watch him get after it on defense, I don't think there is anything weak about his mindset. To me, he's Evan Mobley with less shot blocking but better shooting. 

A stat from the podcast. Of the guys drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years who played college basketball Jabari Smith landed DEAD LAST by a significant margin in 2pt FG%. He shot 43.5% from 2. No other player shot below 45% and only 6 or 7 guys shot below 50% from 2pt range and most of those guys below 50% were PGs like Khris Dunn, Trae Young, Deangelo Russell, Cade Cunningham to name a few. Forwards just don't typically shoot this low a FG% around the basket. 

The 2pt FG% correlates to an ease of scoring for a player and leads to easy assist. Even guys who weren't known as scorers in college like Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or even Evan Mobley all shot exceptionally well (56.1, 56.3, & 61.5 respectively) from 2pt range. For comparison in this year's draft Chet Holmgren shot 73.7% and Paolo shot 52.5% from 2pt range. Mind you, my criticism of Jabari is mostly about his struggles as a shot/playmaker (ie the best player on the team) and whether these struggles are too much for him to be the considered for the top pick in the draft. Now Jabari's skillset as a deep shooter and defender definitely mean that he'll excel in the right role, but I have trouble seeing him as the best player in this year's draft because of this particular flaw. Go back and watch Auburn's loss to MIami. Now Auburns guards are admittedly trash, but Jabari absolutely refused to attack his defender off the dribble. The best player in a given year's draft needs to have the potential to be an offensive hub as a player and I don't see it in Jabari.  

Edited May 11, 2022 by Catdaddyhorn

[ztejas 43522]

11 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I think the low fg% is more a function of shot selection and his taking a lot of difficult contested shots in the mid range.

Jabari played with a really dumb and selfish backcourt that shot AU's way out of the tourney. I think it's totally a function of shot selection. 

[Wulaw Horn 19138]

1 minute ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

A stat from the podcast. Of the guys drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years who played college basketball Jabari Smith landed DEAD LAST by a significant margin in 2pt FG%.. He shot 43.5% from 2. No other player shot below 45% and only 6 or 7 guys shot below 50% from 2pt range and most of those guys wbelow 50% were PGs like Khris Dunn, Trae Young, Deangelo Russell, Cade Cunningham to name a few. Forwards just don't typically shoot this low a FG% around the basket. 

The 2pt FG% correlates to an ease of scoring for a player and leads to easy assist. Even guys who weren't known as scorers in college like Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or even Evan Mobley all shot exceptionally well (56.1, 56.3, & 61.5 respectively) from 2pt range. For comparison in this year's draft Chet Holmgren shot 73.7% and Paolo shot 52.5% from 2pt range. Mind you, my criticism of Jabari is mostly about his struggles as a shot/playmaker (ie the best player on the team) and whether these struggles are too much for him to be the considered for the top pick in the draft. Now Jabari's skillset as a deep shooter and defender definitely mean that he'll excel in the right role, but I have trouble seeing him as the best player in this year's draft because of this particular flaw. Go back and watch Auburn's loss to MIami. Now Auburns guards are admittedly trash, but Jabari absolutely refused to attack his defender off the dribble. The best player in a given year's draft needs to have the potential to be an offensive hub as a player and I don't see it in Jabari.  

Really well said all the way around. It’s why my board is Chet 1 and Ivey 2 and if I get the 3, 4 or 5 doing every thing in my power if I’m the rockets to trade into the spot necessary to lock one of those 2 down. 

[Fud 9552]

46 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

A stat from the podcast. Of the guys drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years who played college basketball Jabari Smith landed DEAD LAST by a significant margin in 2pt FG%. He shot 43.5% from 2. No other player shot below 45% and only 6 or 7 guys shot below 50% from 2pt range and most of those guys below 50% were PGs like Khris Dunn, Trae Young, Deangelo Russell, Cade Cunningham to name a few. Forwards just don't typically shoot this low a FG% around the basket. 

The 2pt FG% correlates to an ease of scoring for a player and leads to easy assist. Even guys who weren't known as scorers in college like Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or even Evan Mobley all shot exceptionally well (56.1, 56.3, & 61.5 respectively) from 2pt range. For comparison in this year's draft Chet Holmgren shot 73.7% and Paolo shot 52.5% from 2pt range. Mind you, my criticism of Jabari is mostly about his struggles as a shot/playmaker (ie the best player on the team) and whether these struggles are too much for him to be the considered for the top pick in the draft. Now Jabari's skillset as a deep shooter and defender definitely mean that he'll excel in the right role, but I have trouble seeing him as the best player in this year's draft because of this particular flaw. Go back and watch Auburn's loss to MIami. Now Auburns guards are admittedly trash, but Jabari absolutely refused to attack his defender off the dribble. The best player in a given year's draft needs to have the potential to be an offensive hub as a player and I don't see it in Jabari.  

Your post doesn’t address that the other guys being considered at the all have considerable flaws that are arguably worse 

[BigOrange1 6442]

12 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

 

Maybe he's truly a weak finisher at the rim but he's also really, really young. 

seems like he might have some potential in that department:

Quote

To me, he's Evan Mobley with less shot blocking but better shooting. 

I see it the same way.

[Fud 9552]

8 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

The league isn’t full of guys who can make something happen with the ball in their hands.

Yes it is

[shadow_operative 15932]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

Yes it is

compared to the number of guys who can play some D and hit open threes?

[Fud 9552]

17 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

compared to the number of guys who can play some D and hit open threes?

I don't think there is an appreciable higher number of one vs the other. Plenty of guys across the league can "make something happen with the ball in their hands". Almost every team has at least a couple  

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

13 hours ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

A stat from the podcast. Of the guys drafted in the top 5 in the last 10 years who played college basketball Jabari Smith landed DEAD LAST by a significant margin in 2pt FG%. He shot 43.5% from 2. No other player shot below 45% and only 6 or 7 guys shot below 50% from 2pt range and most of those guys below 50% were PGs like Khris Dunn, Trae Young, Deangelo Russell, Cade Cunningham to name a few. Forwards just don't typically shoot this low a FG% around the basket. 

The 2pt FG% correlates to an ease of scoring for a player and leads to easy assist. Even guys who weren't known as scorers in college like Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner, or even Evan Mobley all shot exceptionally well (56.1, 56.3, & 61.5 respectively) from 2pt range. For comparison in this year's draft Chet Holmgren shot 73.7% and Paolo shot 52.5% from 2pt range. Mind you, my criticism of Jabari is mostly about his struggles as a shot/playmaker (ie the best player on the team) and whether these struggles are too much for him to be the considered for the top pick in the draft. Now Jabari's skillset as a deep shooter and defender definitely mean that he'll excel in the right role, but I have trouble seeing him as the best player in this year's draft because of this particular flaw. Go back and watch Auburn's loss to MIami. Now Auburns guards are admittedly trash, but Jabari absolutely refused to attack his defender off the dribble. The best player in a given year's draft needs to have the potential to be an offensive hub as a player and I don't see it in Jabari.  

Top 5 draftees who played college ball over the last 10 years sounds like selective sampling to me. Why not top 10? Why not all first round picks? Why not guys his size or play his position? I'm willing to bet that Smith has a better career than 2 pt % shooting college stalwarts and top 5 picks Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, Thomas Robinson, Jabari Parker, Jalil Okafor, Kris Dunn, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and Marvin Bagley. That's 20%+ of your sample right there and they all suck as NBA players.

And at your suggestion, I went back and watched the Auburn/Miami game. Their offense was so devoid of any kind of movement, it made Shaka Smart look like Pete Carill. Jabari took absolutely abysmal shots in that game. Horrible, horrible shot selection. A couple of times they used him as a screener in pick and roll, but you can zone up so easily in college that you don't get rim runners like you do in the NBA. Most of his touches were at the elbow, just inside the three point line (the worst possible place to get the ball) where he was essentially double teamed. He threw up one heavily guarded off balance jumper after another, but he was never open. Even the one three pointer he hit, he was completely covered and it was a terrible shot that he had no business taking. Did he settle too much? Maybe. But he didn't try to drive through double teams, either and force the action. There were two times he got denied at the rim and another couple of times he converted. His shot selection was absolutely atrocious. I cannot overstate this enough. The entire team's shot selection was atrocious. It was like a pickup game where a couple of guys are such awful ball hogs and jacking up such crazy shit that you feel compelled to get up a shot anytime you are fortunate enough to even touch the ball. 

That said, he still had 15 rebounds, 4 assists (a couple that showed very high iq) and 3 blocks. So he had a miserable shooting night but still impacted the game in other ways, not to mention his stellar defense against a team that was playing small ball where he frequently switched off to guys 6-9 inches shorter than him and guarded the shit out of them. Which brings me to my next point...

10 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

3 and D / stretch 4 players fill an important role in today’s NBA, but is it really so hard to find guys who can do that?  The league is full of those guys.  The league isn’t full of guys who can make something happen with the ball in their hands.

First, let's make a distinction here between 3 and D guys and stretch 4's. You have your typical 3 and D guys who are defensive minded wings in the 6'6" range like Danny Green, Robert Covington (the poster child), Mikal Bridges, etc who are generally limited offensively beyond shooting open jumpers. And then you have your stretch bigs, who are usually 6'10"+ power forwards or even centers who can knock down 3's such as Porzingis, Kevin Love, Lauri Markanan, Brook Lopez, etc.

So yes, the league is full of three and D guys and also full of big guys who can knock down a three. It is most decidedly not full of 3 and D guys who are also 6'10" with a 7'2" wingspan. That is what makes him so unique. He can, and appears extremely willing, to guard all five positions. In fact, there are very few current bigs that can even bring that type of defense. Off the top of my head... Bam Adebayo, Evan Mobley and.... I'm drawing a blank here. Maybe Anthony Davis for the 10 games a year he is actually healthy. Draymond, but what is he, 6'6"? And none of those guys can shoot it as well as he can.

So yeah... his floor is a small ball destroying switch anything defensive big who can knock down an open three pointer. He's the youngest or second youngest or whatever guy in the draft, a full year younger than Holmgren. His offense and shot selection will get better as he gets older/stronger/more experienced, not to mention the possibility of his playing with a decent point guard who he can pick and roll/pop with and a coach that has any semblance of an offensive system. 

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1566]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Top 5 draftees who played college ball over the last 10 years sounds like selective sampling to me. Why not top 10? Why not all first round picks? Why not guys his size or play his position? I'm willing to bet that Smith has a better career than 2 pt % shooting college stalwarts and top 5 picks Anthony Bennett, Alex Len, Cody Zeller, Thomas Robinson, Jabari Parker, Jalil Okafor, Kris Dunn, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and Marvin Bagley. That's 20%+ of your sample right there and they all suck as NBA players.

And at your suggestion, I went back and watched the Auburn/Miami game. Their offense was so devoid of any kind of movement, it made Shaka Smart look like Pete Carill. Jabari took absolutely abysmal shots in that game. Horrible, horrible shot selection. A couple of times they used him as a screener in pick and roll, but you can zone up so easily in college that you don't get rim runners like you do in the NBA. Most of his touches were at the elbow, just inside the three point line (the worst possible place to get the ball) where he was essentially double teamed. He threw up one heavily guarded off balance jumper after another, but he was never open. Even the one three pointer he hit, he was completely covered and it was a terrible shot that he had no business taking. Did he settle too much? Maybe. But he didn't try to drive through double teams, either and force the action. There were two times he got denied at the rim and another couple of times he converted. His shot selection was absolutely atrocious. I cannot overstate this enough. The entire team's shot selection was atrocious. It was like a pickup game where a couple of guys are such awful ball hogs and jacking up such crazy shit that you feel compelled to get up a shot anytime you are fortunate enough to even touch the ball. 

That said, he still had 15 rebounds, 4 assists (a couple that showed very high iq) and 3 blocks. So he had a miserable shooting night but still impacted the game in other ways, not to mention his stellar defense against a team that was playing small ball where he frequently switched off to guys 6-9 inches shorter than him and guarded the shit out of them. Which brings me to my next point...

First, let's make a distinction here between 3 and D guys and stretch 4's. You have your typical 3 and D guys who are defensive minded wings in the 6'6" range like Danny Green, Robert Covington (the poster child), Mikal Bridges, etc who are generally limited offensively beyond shooting open jumpers. And then you have your stretch bigs, who are usually 6'10"+ power forwards or even centers who can knock down 3's such as Porzingis, Kevin Love, Lauri Markanan, Brook Lopez, etc.

So yes, the league is full of three and D guys and also full of big guys who can knock down a three. It is most decidedly not full of 3 and D guys who are also 6'10" with a 7'2" wingspan. That is what makes him so unique. He can, and appears extremely willing, to guard all five positions. In fact, there are very few current bigs that can even bring that type of defense. Off the top of my head... Bam Adebayo, Evan Mobley and.... I'm drawing a blank here. Maybe Anthony Davis for the 10 games a year he is actually healthy. Draymond, but what is he, 6'6"? And none of those guys can shoot it as well as he can.

So yeah... his floor is a small ball destroying switch anything defensive big who can knock down an open three pointer. He's the youngest or second youngest or whatever guy in the draft, a full year younger than Holmgren. His offense and shot selection will get better as he gets older/stronger/more experienced, not to mention the possibility of his playing with a decent point guard who he can pick and roll/pop with and a coach that has any semblance of an offensive system. 

This.  Please basketball gods pair him with SGA and Giddey. 

[Kermit 3158]

35 minutes ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

This.  Please basketball gods pair him with SGA and Giddey. 

[Michael Knight 12989]

Jabari is another Antwan Jamison maybe a more developed Rashard Lewis

[Reynolds Woodcock 4788]

On 5/11/2022 at 3:32 PM, Michael Knight said:

Jabari is another Antwan Jamison maybe a more developed Rashard Lewis

I remember being 10 years old and absolutely devastated that the Mavericks missed out on Jamison and drafted some no name dude who’s name I couldn’t pronounce. 

[Post Oak 20254]

9 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I remember being 10 years old and absolutely devastated that the Mavericks missed out on Jamison and drafted some no name dude who’s name I couldn’t pronounce. 

Not only that, they drafted the Tractor Traylor and I was pretty happy about it.

Nobody listen to me.

[gsoda3 3274]

I was ecstatic when we drafted Cherokee parks

[fellside 1114]

I spent 3 months wanting the Mavs to take Dennis Smith Jr and was stoked when we got him.

On the other hand, I wanted Luka for like a year before the draft.

Add that up together and I could still do better than any Sacramento GM.

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

Everyone (including me) gets excited by drafts but it's easy to forget the NBA draft in particular is almost all 19 year olds who aren't going to really peak for another 7-9 years.  Sure, you can tell in the first year or two if they can play but the upside is so far out, it's almost a crap shoot on who will be great and who will be good.

[Dutchrudder 11147]

2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Everyone (including me) gets excited by drafts but it's easy to forget the NBA draft in particular is almost all 19 year olds who aren't going to really peak for another 7-9 years.  Sure, you can tell in the first year or two if they can play but the upside is so far out, it's almost a crap shoot on who will be great and who will be good.

Yeah, Jason Taytum finally reached his potential last season, and he's already on his second contract at 24 years old. Not many guys can come in and have a huge impact during their rookie year.