2022 NBA Draft

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

if there is one thing i am sure about in regards to chet, its that he will be a plus defender in the nba.

The analysis I've seen backs that up.  Says he's a very smart defender and knows how to use timing for the blocks.  Also VERY long arms.  If OKC takes him, that's one long ass team with him, Giddey, SGA, and a center to be named later.  (SGA has a 6'11" wingspan and Giddey is roughly 6'9".)

I've said before that I really like Chet with his frame being the caveat from an injury standpoint.  How does he hold up?

[Message Board User 12397]

Been reading more and more about this guy - very good size at the 2, great wingspan, good shooter, high BB IQ.  Main knocks are Santa Clara and already 21 years old.

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Message Board User

[Fud 9566]

Good stuff from Hollinger

Spoiler

Are you watching the playoffs?

Are you watching them and thinking about what they might mean for this year’s draft?

We’re in a little bit of a weird place, right? The consensus top three players are fours and fives, but all the value is in big wings. Unlike a year ago, there isn’t an easy pathway to sorting out the top of the draft based on positional value. That ballhandling, playmaking 6-7 wing every team craves isn’t out there at the top of this draft. Maybe a Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes is hiding in the weeds, but if so, it’s much less obvious this time around.

Similarly, we have some good bigs in this draft, but we don’t have an Evan Mobley-type, whose switchability is so obvious that it would allay concerns about the decreasing value of centers in the postseason. Conversely, in a world where either having a P.J. Tucker-type body or just being a 6-6 guy who doesn’t suck has exponentially more value in the games that matter most, a lot of energy must necessarily tilt toward finding those types of players in the draft.

The top three players in this draft are bigs, with one being a true rim-protecting five. At least two other traditional centers are on every lottery board, and if you made a consensus mock draft right now, you’d see a generous sprinkling of players shorter than 6-5 as well. With centers in particular, we run into issues of diminishing returns. You can play one center, but never more; meanwhile, you can play as many 6-7 guys as you want in today’s NBA, provided at least one of them can dribble.

Despite that, teams continue to overvalue taking big centers at the top of the draft. We’ve had 18 centers drafted in the top six picks since 2002; only three of them have played in an All-Star Game, and in the case of Chris Kaman, we’re defining this term extremely broadly. Should Mobley and Deandre Ayton eventually make it, we’ll be at five. Woohoo.

Mobley proves the exception to the rule — a 7-foot center who plays as a perimeter player, particularly on defense. Meanwhile the best offensive center in the league (Nikola Jokić) was picked 46th, the best defensive center (Rudy Gobert) was picked 27th, and this year’s other 7-foot All-Stars (Jarrett Allen and Joel Embiid) were picked 22nd and third respectively.

On the flip side, we’ve had a perimeter All-Star selected in the top five of every draft since 2010, if we assume one of Cunningham or Barnes breaks through soon. And we’re on a stretch of 20 straight drafts in the top six. A couple of them stretch the definition of “All-Star” a bit (Andrew Wiggins was voted in, and Devin Harris and D’Angelo Russell each made it once), but most were legit.

Overall, we’re talking about 27 All-Star perimeter players from 19 drafts, and 23 of them were no-doubt-about-it, All-Star-caliber players. Despite the zest for size at the top of the draft, most of these stars weren’t that big; only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were taller than 6-7.

So … do you want to pick from the bin that provided 27 All-Stars or the bin that gave us three?

I bring this up for two fairly obvious reasons. First, I think teams are still guilty of overdrafting centers — James Wiseman, Mo Bamba, Dragan Bender and Jahlil Okafor would be recent examples. Second, the consensus top three players in this particular class are all bigs, with perhaps the most highly touted one a 7-1 center.

So here’s the question … is Chet Holmgren (or Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero) such an advantage at their positions that you’d prefer taking them to the chance of getting an All-Star perimeter player?

The flip side of this, of course, is what All-Star perimeter player? Have you been scouting some other NCAA, Hollinger? Teams would feel better about following my big-shunning strategy if there were wart-free wing options. This is, perhaps, not that kind of draft. Particularly in that sweet spot around 6-6 or 6-7, the talent pool is not safe for diving.

Wait, it gets worse. Two other issues underlie this year’s draft. First, this is one of the worst international draft classes in memory. Only two players have a realistic chance of going in the top 20, and neither played well even in relatively weak overseas leagues. Second, there is an absolutely staggering number of meh shooting guards for teams to sort through. We may set some kind of record for 6-4 guys who end up in France; several of them have been getting lottery buzz, for some reason, but I don’t have more than a couple in my top 20.

Nonetheless, teams must press on with the task of selecting the best talent and determining the best positional fits. And there is actually talent in this draft; it was harder to winnow my list down to 20 or so than I expected. It’s just hiding in some different places than you might have originally expected.

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Haralabos Voulgaris said there's probably only two traditional centers in today's NBA that he would give a max contract to and that's Embiid and Jokic. Giannis makes three if you classify him as a center.

Celtics went with the smaller Grant Williams and Horford over Robert Williams for a lot of the game last night and ran the Heat off the court. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Loch Ness Monster

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Even when a guy like Ayton turns into a player you get put into an awkward spot come the 2nd contract. Gobert is an amazing defender but is almost unplayable against certain teams.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Big centers are only valuable if they’re an offensive threat.  That’s why the top three are the top three.  They can score.  Duren and Williams can’t.

[Fud 9566]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

Big centers are only valuable if they’re an offensive threat.  That’s why the top three are the top three.  They can score.  Duren and Williams can’t.

I'd take it a step further; they need to be flat out dominant offensively (like Jokic and Embiid) to justify staying on the court if they aren't switchable on defense

[Irieguy 1059]

I’ve got to give credit to @shadow_operative He questioned the value of Centers years ago when there was poll saying most GMs would pick Karl Anthony Towns to build a team around. It would be interesting to see that thread in retrospect actually. 
 

here is the article https://clutchpoints.com/nba-gm-start-franchise-karl-anthony-towns/amp/

Can’t find the thread. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Irieguy

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

8 hours ago, Fud said:

I'd take it a step further; they need to be flat out dominant offensively (like Jokic and Embiid) to justify staying on the court if they aren't switchable on defense

Agree. Even Joker gets taken advantage of on defense at times but of course he's incredible at everything else.

Even rebounding is so different now. With more 3s there's longer rebounds and the little guys can get more boards.

[Fud 9566]

 

[Fud 9566]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

4 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Agree. Even Joker gets taken advantage of on defense at times but of course he's incredible at everything else.

Even rebounding is so different now. With more 3s there's longer rebounds and the little guys can get more boards.

It's part of what makes me think Okie City will surprise people and take Banchero.  If they're going for position less basketball, he's the obvious choice with the rest of their roster.  I hear about his defense but I don't know if he's bad at it or just doesn't like to play it.

[ztejas 43746]

On 5/18/2022 at 8:08 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

They were the #5 seed in the playoffs in 2020.

Because Chris Paul was on the team. Are you serious? 

On 5/18/2022 at 5:34 PM, Message Board User said:

I doubt Daniels lasts beyond the Spurs at 9 and I just hope and pray that Tari is there at 14.

I'd take Tari at 9 but I'd take Sochan before him if he falls there. 

[ztejas 43746]

15 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Haralabos Voulgaris said there's probably only two traditional centers in today's NBA that he would give a max contract to and that's Embiid and Jokic. Giannis makes three if you classify him as a center.

Celtics went with the smaller Grant Williams and Horford over Robert Williams for a lot of the game last night and ran the Heat off the court. 

Sleepy Bob is injured still. That's why he isn't getting minutes. Full health he's prototypical in the modern NBA. 

15 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Even when a guy like Ayton turns into a player you get put into an awkward spot come the 2nd contract. Gobert is an amazing defender but is almost unplayable against certain teams.

Gobert in a vacuum is much better than Ayton. He's just never had competent pieces around him. Ayton doesn't give a shit. Gobert does. Ship Rudy to the Nets and the East has a major problem on their hands. 

[Message Board User 12397]

On 5/18/2022 at 5:34 PM, Message Board User said:

Well this sucks - both of these guys had great measurements and I doubt Daniels lasts beyond the Spurs at 9 and I just hope and pray that Tari is there at 14.

 

A single tear runs down my cheek as it looks less and less likely that Tari makes it to 14.

 

[Kermit 3160]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

A single tear runs down my cheek as it looks less and less likely that Tari makes it to 14.

 

Fuck Kawhi Leonard.

[cmontexas 3306]

Banchero is a superstar. The team that drafts a 3 and D wing who struggles to get his own shot instead will regret the decision. The history of the draft is full of such decisions. And the league is full of 3 and D wings that come cheap

Edited May 21, 2022 by cmontexas

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Posted this in the Houston thread:

 

Spin the wheel of fantasy trades.  Okie City figures out they want Banchero and pick swaps with Houston at 2/3 for a player, future picks, or something.  Then they take #12 and package that with something to move up to Portland or Sacramento's pick and take Murray, Sharpe, Ivey, or somebody.  

Yeah, that's it.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

1 hour ago, cmontexas said:

Banchero is a superstar. The team that drafts a 3 and D wing who struggles to get his own shot instead will regret the decision. The history of the draft is full of such decisions. And the league is full of 3 and D wings that come cheap

I tend to agree but I think Smith would do well in the right system on the right team even as a rookie.  Can he develop that game of being able to create his own shot?  He's only 19.  Even right now, he's an elite shooter with an unblock able release and he's a good defender/rebounder.  With him, I'd put more stock in what his upside is at 25.

On Banchero, the more I think of the three, the more I agree.  I keep hearing about his defense but is it because he's bad at it or just doesn't like playing it?  I don't know.  On offense, though, he's a legit three level scorer and I could see at 22-25/ppg in the league at some point.  He also has an NBA body right now.  I actually think Okie takes him.  Their thinking may be that if SGA wants to leave in five years, will this new draftee be able to carry the team/franchise if they have to trade SGA?  

People may be overthinking Chet and Jabari.  Banchero is the most obvious pick.

[Message Board User 12397]

😲

 

[6th Street 6597]

So Chet. Shawn Bradley 2.0? 

[LTtxfan 49406]

17 hours ago, Message Board User said:

😲

 

 

Two-way player Dyson Daniels intriguing option for Knicks

By  Marc Berman      May 19, 2022 

CHICAGO — Dyson Daniels, the intriguing 6-foot-8 Australian prospect from the G-League Ignite, considers himself more a point guard but also views himself more a defensive player.

Which is why the Knicks seem extremely interested, interviewing the 19-year-old Daniels on Wednesday at the league’s combine. The Knicks need a point guard after the Kemba Walker/Derrick Rose failure. And they need more of a defensive presence.

“It’s always been my strength, playing 1 through 4 on defense,’’ Daniels said Thursday. “A lot of teams now have two, three defenders on the floor at all times — looking at Boston in the playoffs and Miami as well. But I’m a two-way player, able to play on both sides of the ball.’’

Though he’s from a rural town in Australia, where his father played pro ball after graduating from N.C. State, Daniels is eager to test the big city. He turned down offers from Houston, Colorado and N.C. State to play for the G-League Ignite.

“I’m definitely looking at [the Knicks],’’ Daniels said. “It’s definitely a possibility. It’s too early to say on anything like that.

“There’s a lot of people in that room. I talked to everyone about their experience and what it would be like. They asked me questions. I asked them questions. Obviously New York is a tough place to play in and it’s a big place but I’d be ready for whatever team I’d play on.’’

Daniels needs to work on his 3-point shot (30 percent in the G-League) but is considered a playmaking guard whose ballhandling improved as the season carried on.

“It’s a tough one for me because I have such a unique game,’’ Daniels said of his NBA comparison. “I have a very good offensive game but I’m a good defender. On the offensive end I play a little like Tyrese Haliburton, someone in control. I feel on the defensive end I’m like Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso, people like that. I feel I have the frame once the game slows down for me I hope to develop into a Luka Doncic-type role.’’

Well, Doncic might be a stretch, but there is intrigue. Still, Daniels figures he could be there at 11 when the Knicks select.

“I’m a big point guard at 6-7,’’ Daniels said. “It’s not hard to see over smaller defenders. If I get a smaller defender on me, I’m able to go down to the post and play down there. I’ve always been a point guard growing up. I had a growth spurt the last two years. I had the skills of a point guard. With the height, it’s an advantage in the NBA.’’

[MNLonghornFUKM 8916]

I’m probably wrong because I normally am…but man that frame of holmgren just screams red flags. I remember seeing him in HS state basketball tournament last year and thought he needed to eat a cheeseburger or 70.

How aren’t muscular 4 or 5s not going to eat this guy alive? Durant was skinny but he had athleticism to offset it, while he I guess filled out?

Holmgren turns sideways and disappears. I’m sure he’ll go #1 because of the potential and his HS teammate is on the team.

[Irieguy 1059]

On 5/21/2022 at 5:06 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Posted this in the Houston thread:

 

 

Spin the wheel of fantasy trades.  Okie City figures out they want Banchero and pick swaps with Houston at 2/3 for a player, future picks, or something.  Then they take #12 and package that with something to move up to Portland or Sacramento's pick and take Murray, Sharpe, Ivey, or somebody.  

Yeah, that's it.

I can’t imagine thinking this was worth posting twice. Cringe. @Aqua Buddha

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Trying to picture a prime Chet against a newer GS type team. Sorry I don't see superstar but he'll be around as long as his body holds up.

[Fud 9566]

On 5/21/2022 at 3:25 PM, cmontexas said:

Banchero is a superstar. The team that drafts a 3 and D wing who struggles to get his own shot instead will regret the decision. The history of the draft is full of such decisions. And the league is full of 3 and D wings that come cheap

Banchero most likely will be hunted incessantly on defense, and he doesn't add weakside rim protection. He's a great offensive talent, but he'll really have to dominate there to make up for the defense 

Also, 3&D wings have been getting paid for years now, at the expense of players who get hunted on defense (post players who can't switch, small guards, and players who suck on defense because they don't care about it)

[cmontexas 3306]

3 and D wings get paid, but this league is full of ones that came from the G League, or were 2nd rounders, or played in Europe (Tucker, Crowder, Finney Smith, Covington, Bullock etc). Even Wiggins took 7 years to develop and get put in the perfect situation. Its a role that requires high basketball IQ which comes from experience and time on the court moreso than measurables.

OTOH, we've seen supremely talented 19 year olds come in and put the ball in the bucket. I dont agree with your assessment that Banchero is some defensive black hole. The press conference after the Tech game in the NCAA tournament where he sat next to Coach K and thanked him for bringing him to Duke to play in games like that sold me on the kid's competitiveness 

[Fud 9566]

Pretty much every game I watched him play showed him getting blown by by a perimeter player due to his slow foot speed. He appears to not be very switchable onto NBA perimeter players, and he's not a rim protector, so you're likely left with a guy who's best as an on-ball defender against post players

Terrific offensive player though

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Is Banchero legitimately bad on defense or does he just not care?

If he's legitimately bad, Presti has always been big about defensive versatility to the point he used to sign players with zero offensive skills just because of their defense.  If he's bad, they'll take either Chet or Jabari.  They can make either of those work and be fine.  I'm starting to warm up to Chet, assuming he can put on weight.  He's never had an injury history so that's a good sign.  Prolly has more offensive versatility than Jabari but Jabari could easily develop over the next few years.  He has insanely long arms and is a shot blocker so he brings the defense.  Either would work on OKC because they wouldn't be asked to handle the ball very often.

Then, if Banchero is legitimately bad, do the Rockets pair him with Sengun?  

[Fud 9566]

I think he has a footspeed issue making him not very switchable, although there are some draft guys who think he’ll be fine 

[Message Board User 12397]

 

[Ignatius 4081]

On 5/11/2022 at 3:32 PM, Michael Knight said:

Jabari is another Antwan Jamison maybe a more developed Rashard Lewis

Landing a 15K or 20K scorer wouldn’t be the worst pick in the world in a class with no real alpha dog, just like the ‘99 class was. They ended up out scoring everyone but Vinsanity (#5, and he played like 400 years), Dirk (#9), and Paul Pierce (#10)…

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

I read where Sharpe also went to four different HS's or some such.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

 

[shadow_operative 15932]

 

 

[shadow_operative 15932]

i don't see any reason that Chet can't become what Anthony Davis was supposed to become/would be if he were healthy. he's that good. 

Edited May 25, 2022 by shadow_operative

[shadow_operative 15932]

more holmgren reading:

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

57 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i don't see any reason that Chet can't become what Anthony Davis was supposed to become/would be if he were healthy. he's that good. 

IF he's gained 20 lbs since HS, that's a good sign.  (I think he was listed at 175 then.)  You mentioned his health and that's my concern.  Can he hold up over the course of NBA seasons?  If he could reasonably put on 20ish lbs over the next few years and be around 220, then I'd take him in a heartbeat.  He'll never be a physical center but if you paired him with that and had him at the 4, then he'd be great.

[shadow_operative 15932]

38 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

IF he's gained 20 lbs since HS, that's a good sign.  (I think he was listed at 175 then.)  You mentioned his health and that's my concern.  Can he hold up over the course of NBA seasons?  If he could reasonably put on 20ish lbs over the next few years and be around 220, then I'd take him in a heartbeat.  He'll never be a physical center but if you paired him with that and had him at the 4, then he'd be great.

if he can add weight the way that guys like KG, McGrady, and KD did then he's going to be in really good shape to be durable, barring him just being plain fold injury prone, which we haven't seen to this point. 

[Fud 9566]

I think Davis as a prospect was better functional athlete than Chet is (faster, quicker, twitchier, more fluid, etc), and while we don't know what Chet actually weighs right now, Davis was in the 220s at the combine. Of course, Chet has several inches on Davis in height, although I think their wingspans are close. I think Davis has the better initial and second jumps than Chet, but Chet has the higher standing reach, which matters in rim protection

I think Davis was more switchable on defense while Chet potentially could offer better rim protection. Chet is also a wizard at finishing around the rim, is a terrific passer, and has an excellent feel and mind for the game, while I think Davis could actually take the ball to the rim one on one through quickness and explosion, while Chet has to use more craft and skill to get there against NBA competition (see the tournament games against better comp when he struggled to dribble past anyone)

I don't think Chet is thought of as being the same type of elite-elite prospect that Davis was around the NBA

[SilasCoade 2622]

I'm going to get rightfully crucified for saying this, but this kid looks like a bigger version of Ja Morant.

Definitely someone I think warrants a second round pick, maybe even a late first. That size, athleticism, and finishing in the lane is hard to find. His FT% improved by 15 points in 2 years at NC State suggesting there's hope that his jumper just needs reps and time. If you can get him to buy in on defense he could be a Dejounte Murray kind of guy.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Llogg

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Wild and unsubstantiated rumor.  They have enough picks already but what if the Kings are moving up to take Ivey to pair with Sabonis and the Thunder then take Banchero or Chet at #4?

 

[Fud 9566]

32 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Wild and unsubstantiated rumor.  They have enough picks already but what if the Kings are moving up to take Ivey to pair with Sabonis and the Thunder then take Banchero or Chet at #4?

 

If the Kings are moving up to #2, it's to take Chet I think 

[TonyTexas 10571]

That’s just what OKC needs, more draft picks. Don’t they have like 17 1st rounders in the next 5 drafts. 

Edited May 26, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

12 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

That’s just what OKC needs, more draft picks. Don’t they have like 17 1st rounders in the next 5 drafts. 

Yeah, I don’t want more draft picks.  The whole point of tanking is to get a high pick, which they now have.

Might also depend on what the Kings are offering and if Presti has Ivey as the best player, which I could see.  I think out of the top 5-6, Ivey has the biggest star potential and the highest floor.  He could be good immediately but Okie City needs bigs.  Most of their bigs are borderline NBA guys.

[ztejas 43746]

Moving up to 2 to take Ivey would be the most hilariously dumbass Kings thing to do ever. Agree it would be to snag Chet or Banchero. 

[Fud 9566]

It makes sense positionally for it to be Chet, since Banchero is a little redundant with Sabonis, and since they just traded Halliburton away because he was getting in Fox's way too often. But it's also the Kings, so who knows. 

Assuming any of this is true 

[ztejas 43746]

41 minutes ago, Fud said:

But it's also the Kings, so who knows. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Wild and unsubstantiated rumor.  They have enough picks already but what if the Kings are moving up to take Ivey to pair with Sabonis and the Thunder then take Banchero or Chet at #4?

 

"usually always never". that's a fun sentence.

[Fud 9566]

I haven't listened to this latest episode yet, but these guys have one of the more insightful NBA draft pods