2022 NBA Draft

[Message Board User 12396]

Hmmmm...

 

[ztejas 43549]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

Hmmmm...

 

Yeah but he looks so awesome in empty gym workouts. 

[Serak The Preparer 3434]

23 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Yeah but he looks so awesome in empty gym workouts. 

But do we know how he does against chairs? Really the missing piece of the equation imo.

[Message Board User 12396]

Sharpe's agents have done a masterful job of not allowing him to play (assuming he even wanted to) which has kept him a top 10 (top 5?) pick.

It would probably take more balls to pick Sharpe with a top 5 pick than Chet.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4812]

On 5/26/2022 at 1:47 PM, Fud said:

and since they just traded Halliburton away because he was getting in Fox's way too often.

This continues to be an absolutely wild thing that happened

[Fud 9559]

1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

This continues to be an absolutely wild thing that happened

Yep, although Fox played much better once Halliburton left. It seems like the Kings at #4 and Trailblazers at #7 are the two high picks for sale for guys who could help those teams right away 

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

On 5/29/2022 at 6:13 PM, Message Board User said:

Sharpe's agents have done a masterful job of not allowing him to play (assuming he even wanted to) which has kept him a top 10 (top 5?) pick.

It would probably take more balls to pick Sharpe with a top 5 pick than Chet.

Might backfire on the agent.  Sharpe came in shorter than everyone thought and doesn't want to play/work out for people and this is a dude who hasn't played in two years and barely even practiced at Kentucky.

[Fud 9559]

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18597]

One prospect that I'm a little intrigued by is Trevion Williams from Purdue. He's got an insane feel for the game both passing and scoring around the rim and has good handles, but not much shooting range, and he's just a mess on defense. The thing is, I wonder what he could be if he really got into shape and fixed his jumper? My man is fat, I don't care what that body fat % from the combine says. 

Some of the defensive stuff is just mental and could be fixed with reps... poor positioning and getting caught in no man's land defending picks, but he's 6'9“ with a 7'3" wingspan. I think he could be a solid defender and possibly a decent rim protector if he dropped about 20 lbs. Also, his jumper and free throw shooting form looks OK and he's got a really nice touch around the basket, so maybe you could tweak his shot and lock him in the gym until he's competent from outside. But everything else on offense is there. 

He'd be a good mid second round project pick for a team with a good development staff. 

[Fud 9559]

He did well in a combine scrimmage and was viewed as a late teens to early 20s guy

 

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

I don’t think they will but I could see Okie City taking Ivey even at 2 if they really feel he’s the best.  They enough capital with the fan base to get the benefit of the doubt.  I think he has zero bust potential and has more upside than both Jabari and Chet.  They just need big guys.

I guess they’d then trade Dort and 12 to move up and take a big.  Either that or trade Dort for a big of some kind.

[Fud 9559]

2023 draft, but 

 

[Message Board User 12396]

This is behind a paywall but one of the comments scrolled through the mock:

 

 

[Fud 9559]

He has Sochan surprisingly low 

[Blotto 23585]

 

Quote

1. Orlando Magic
Jabari Smith
Auburn
SF/PF
Age: 19.0

The Magic will cast a wide net in exploring whom to select with the top pick, and will bring in the draft's top three prospects -- Smith, Holmgren and Banchero -- for in-person meetings. Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption that Smith will end up hearing his name called here, as he fits both the front office and coaching staff's philosophy for what they look for in a prospect. He is also an outstanding fit for a Magic team that badly struggled to space the floor effectively last season. Smith was arguably the most dynamic shooter in college, converting 42% of his 3-pointers despite standing 6-foot-10. He's a highly versatile defender who plays with outstanding intensity, switching all over the floor with quick feet and impressive energy, giving the Magic the ability to play in a variety of lineup configurations with their existing players.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren
Gonzaga
PF
Age: 20.0

The Thunder do as good of a job as any team at keeping their intentions hidden, and they are also doing their homework with a pool that includes Holmgren, Banchero, Ivey and Sharpe. Most teams feel that Holmgren ultimately will be the pick, as he both fits a significant need in the frontcourt and also has a strong case to be considered the most talented player in the draft. Holmgren is the draft's biggest difference-maker defensively, a force on the glass and a rim protector who also shot 39% from 3 and brings significant upside as a passer, finisher and shot-creator. With a low-key, low-maintenance personality, Holmgren looks like the type of player who would be happy to make Oklahoma City his home long-term as long as the Thunder are winning games.

3. Houston Rockets
Paolo Banchero
Duke
PF/C
Age: 19.5

The Rockets pick third in what many consider to be a three-player draft, making this a relatively easy choice on face value. Ivey's candidacy is also under consideration here, as the idea of constructing arguably the most explosive backcourt in the NBA is said to be intriguing for Rockets brass. But it will be difficult to pass on what many consider to be the draft's most skilled offensive player -- a 6-10, shot-creating dynamo in Banchero who can carry a significant load with his ability to handle, pass and shoot. Banchero's playmaking ability should pair well with the explosive transition scoring and shot-making ability Jalen Green offers. Banchero could start next to a more traditional big man (Alperen Sengun) or operate alongside another perimeter-oriented big man (Christian Wood), making Banchero a strong fit for the Rockets long-term.

4. Sacramento Kings
Jaden Ivey
Purdue
PG/SG
Age: 20.2

The Kings were thrilled to move up three spots in the draft lottery, but now have a difficult decision in front of them. Opinions are split greatly among NBA executives at this point regarding who the best prospect is at this spot in the draft, and there's no clear home run candidate for what makes sense with Sacramento's existing players. On top of that, the Kings may not be viewed by agents as the most attractive situation for their clients either, which could prevent them from getting a full view of their options in terms of private workouts and medicals. That's one of the reasons some teams feel this pick is attainable in a trade if an established veteran who could help the Kings make a playoff push is available.

5. Detroit Pistons
Keegan Murray
Iowa
PF/C
Age: 21.7

The Pistons would likely be disappointed to see Ivey off the board in this scenario. Still, drafting the most productive player in college basketball this season in Murray would be an excellent consolation prize, as he looks like a day-one contributor ready to step into the void left by Jerami Grant, whose future with the Pistons looks uncertain. Murray's cerebral approach and steady demeanor should fit in well with franchise building block Cade Cunningham with his dynamic shooting ability, how he ignites the break off the defensive glass, and the versatility he brings defensively. Sharpe will also get a long look here, but he will need to have a strong showing in a competitive private workout setting to solidify his standing at this slot.

6. Indiana Pacers
Dyson Daniels
G League Ignite
PG/SG
Age: 19.1

The Pacers have their starting backcourt with Tyrese Haliburton and Malcolm Brogdon, but are in full-fledged talent-acquisition mode and will be thinking hard about selecting the best long-term prospect they can acquire with this pick. Adding a versatile guard who can play in a variety of lineup configurations and do a little bit of everything could be attractive here, especially with Brogdon rumored to be available to other teams in the lottery such as the Wizards (No. 10 pick) and Knicks (No. 11 pick) who may be looking for more of an immediate contributor.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Shaedon Sharpe
Kentucky
SG
Age: 18.9

The Blazers are early in their rebuilding process and can afford to swing for the fences for a prospect some consider to have the highest upside of any player in the draft. Sharpe is oozing with talent, possessing elite physical tools with his exceptional frame, length and explosiveness, to go along with dynamic perimeter shooting ability. There was a reason Sharpe was the No. 1-ranked player in his high school class, but his lack of experience and how little he has been evaluated might make it difficult for a team picking higher than this to roll the dice on him.

8. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Bennedict Mathurin
Arizona
SF
Age: 19.9

With a healthy core of talent already in place for the Pelicans, including significant star power and excellent role players, adding a dynamic shooter with versatility such as Mathurin could make plenty of sense here. The Pelicans really struggled to space the floor effectively at times last season, ranking among the NBA's worst 3-point shooting teams in both makes and accuracy. An All-American who excels coming off screens and operating in the open court, Mathurin can play either wing spot and has plenty of upside to grow into at just 19 years old.

9. San Antonio Spurs
Jalen Duren
Memphis
C
Age: 18.5

The Spurs have focused heavily on adding perimeter pieces in the draft the past few years, with Devin Vassell, Joshua Primo, Lonnie Walker IV and Keldon Johnson forming a solid backcourt core with Dejounte Murray. They may look to the frontcourt in this draft, where they don't have quite as much depth. Duren is the most physically gifted big man in this class, bringing impressive finishing prowess as well as outstanding defensive potential as both a rim-protector and guarding pick-and-roll. As the youngest player in this class, he has considerable upside to grow into as well.

10. Washington Wizards
Johnny Davis
Wisconsin
PG/SG
Age: 20.2

The Wizards will certainly look to improve their backcourt, both in the draft and free agency, after cycling through a cascade of guards in an injury-plagued season. Davis brings many of the winning intangibles the Wizards should be looking for with his defensive versatility, unselfishness and ability to score with or without the ball. He would fit well alongside the ball-dominant Bradley Beal and looks ready to contribute immediately coming off an All-America season, despite being relatively young at 20. Some NBA executives believe this pick could be available in a trade for a more immediate impact guard.

11. New York Knicks
AJ Griffin
Duke
SF/PF
Age: 18.7

Coming off a disappointing season, the Knicks desperately need to upgrade at point guard but lack great options to choose from. Trading this pick for an immediate contributor -- i.e. Malcolm Brogdon -- could be attractive here. If they decide to keep it, drafting a player such as Griffin, who is arguably the best shooter in the class after making 45% of his 3-pointers, could make sense. His 7-foot wingspan gives him significant potential defensively, he's one of the youngest players in the draft, and he plays one of the most coveted positions in the modern NBA.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)
Ousmane Dieng
NZ Breakers
SF/PF
Age: 19.0

The Thunder can afford to be patient and take a swing on a high-upside prospect such as Dieng, who has the type of positional size, feel for the game and versatility the front office typically values. A fluid wing with ample size to slide to the power forward position as his frame fills out, Dieng hit his stride as the Australian NBL season progressed, flashing dynamic shot-making ability, vision operating out of pick-and-roll and the ability to guard multiple positions. Not yet 19, Dieng isn't particularly close to being ready to help a team win games, but that might not be the worst thing for the Thunder.

13. Charlotte Hornets
Mark Williams
Duke
C
Age: 20.4

The Hornets have been seeking a legitimate rim-protecting, lob-catching center to pair with LaMelo Ball from the moment they drafted the pick-and-roll maestro, and could very well be attracted to Williams, with whom they'll be very familiar from down the road in Durham. Williams led college basketball in dunks last season, won ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors and made considerable progress as a sophomore.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers
Malaki Branham
Ohio State
SG
Age: 19.0

The Cavs will be looking to add firepower on the wing this offseason, both in free agency and in the draft. Branham's frame, length, scoring instincts and shot-making prowess off the dribble (44%) and with his feet set (43%) make his game look seamlessly translatable for what the NBA is looking for at his position. He started the season slowly but looked like one of the most talented perimeter players in the country down the stretch, carrying Ohio State offensively, and in a highly efficient manner.

15. Charlotte Hornets (via Pelicans)
Ochai Agbaji
Kansas
SF
Age: 22.1

While the frontcourt will surely be an area for improvement this offseason, adding depth on the wing should also be a priority, as starting small forward Gordon Hayward is often injured and backup Kelly Oubre Jr. is entering the final season of his contract. Agbaji is one of the best shooters in the draft who looks like a relatively plug-and-play, 3-and-D prospect who comes off a national championship in which he won the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player. The fact that he's 22 years old may make him even more attractive to the Hornets, who are clearly looking for immediate results after firing coach James Borrego.

16. Atlanta Hawks
Jeremy Sochan
Baylor
PF
Age: 19.0

The Hawks are one of the NBA's deeper teams on paper, and it may not be easy for any rookie to crack their rotation next season. Atlanta has plenty of offense but really struggled to get stops last season, ranking among the NBA's worst in defensive efficiency. Sochan brings some different dimensions -- the team could be attracted to his ability to defend all over the floor, pass the ball effectively and slide up or down positions depending on the matchup. The Polish national has plenty of upside to grow into at 18 years old.

17. Houston Rockets
TyTy Washington Jr.
Kentucky
PG/SG
Age: 20.5

NBA opinions are mixed regarding the long-term future of Kevin Porter Jr. in Houston, after what's been a roller-coaster ride of a short career thus far. Adding another steady-handed guard in the backcourt who can play with or without the ball, excels in pick-and-roll and is a strong perimeter shooter makes some sense here, especially since Washington has the size and length to play in many different lineup configurations.

18. Chicago Bulls
Tari Eason
LSU
PF
Age: 21.0

The Bulls need to add depth in the frontcourt and shore up their defense, which ranked second-worst last season among playoff teams. Eason is one of the most explosive and productive players in the draft, putting consistent pressure on opposing defenses with his quick first step, physicality and insatiable intensity, characteristics that allow him to live at the free throw line. These same traits helped make him one of the most versatile defenders in college, a magnet for steals, blocks and rebounds who flew all over the floor in LSU's suffocating press while rotating from guarding point guards to big men.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves
Nikola Jovic
Mega Mozzart
SF
Age: 18.9

After an encouraging season, the Timberwolves might look to bolster their depth at the forward spots with another dynamic shooter who doesn't need the ball, can facilitate for others and has upside to grow into long-term. Jovic has excellent size at 6-10, a strong feel for the game and could slide nicely between Jaden McDaniels and Jarred Vanderbilt while not detracting from the Timberwolves' core of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Jalen Williams
Santa Clara
SF
Age: 21.1

With three first-round picks at their disposal and a roster that is far from settled, the Spurs can afford to take a long view in selecting the best player available regardless of positional fit. Williams has been one of the big winners of the pre-draft process so far, starting with his outstanding measurements (6-6, 209 pounds with a 7-2 wingspan) and continuing with his strong play at the NBA combine scrimmages and at his pro day, where he excelled in 3-on-3 action. Williams brings the type of defensive versatility, perimeter shooting and off-court intangibles the franchise typically values, and looks like a good fit alongside any of the Spurs existing players.

21. Denver Nuggets
Kennedy Chandler
Tennessee
PG
Age: 19.6

With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in the fold next season alongside MVP Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, adding quality depth in the backcourt looks like a priority for the Nuggets. After a rocky start, Chandler emerged as one of the premier point guards in the college game in the second half of the season, showing blazing speed, dynamic ballhandling and passing ability, and an increasingly consistent pull-up jumper. His measurements (6-1, 172 pounds with a 6-5¼ wingspan) are what might keep him out of the lottery position his talent suggests, but didn't prevent him from playing outstanding defense and leading the SEC in steals. The fact that he proved capable of playing off the ball in two- and three-guard lineups should be attractive as well.

22. Memphis Grizzlies (via Jazz)
Jaden Hardy
G League Ignite
SG
Age: 19.8

The Grizzlies have drafted extremely well and now have a stacked roster of contributors to choose from, giving them the flexibility to draft more of a long-term prospect. Hardy entered the year as a potential top-five pick and still has plenty of upside to tap into as a shot-making, instinctual scorer who is still only 19. Adding more shooting alongside Ja Morant will always be an attractive proposition for the Grizzlies, but Hardy has the type of scoring talent that could allow him to anchor a bench unit down the road if he continues to progress with his frame and decision-making.

23. Brooklyn Nets (via 76ers; Nets can defer to 2023)
E.J. Liddell
Ohio State
PF
Age: 21.4

The Nets have until June 1 to decide whether to keep this pick or defer it to 2023 and allow Philadelphia to draft here, with no decision likely to come until the last minute. Most NBA teams are operating under the assumption that the Nets will punt to 2023 and gamble on the Sixers sending an even better pick next year if the wheels come off in Philadelphia. Both teams could very well look at adding a versatile big man like Liddell who can protect the rim, switch on the perimeter and has a high floor as a prospect after improving his shooting significantly as a junior. His productivity and toughness make him a solid option for teams looking to win now that need to find value on rookie-scale contracts.

24. Milwaukee Bucks
Walker Kessler
Auburn
C
Age: 20.8

With 34-year old Brook Lopez struggling with injuries all season and Bobby Portis potentially entering free agency, it would certainly make sense to look to this position as an option to add a young prospect on a rookie-scale deal. The Bucks are in win-now mode and would be well-served adding a player who can step in and contribute immediately, as they don't have a great deal of flexibility with their salary-cap situation. Kessler was the best defender in college basketball this season, a force as a rim protector who also brings upside as a pick-and-roll finisher and even as a perimeter shooter.

25. San Antonio Spurs (via Celtics)
Caleb Houstan
Michigan
SF
Age: 19.3

One of the big mysteries of the 2022 NBA draft is where Houstan, once a projected top-10 pick, ends up. Houstan declined his invite to the NBA combine, indicating there might be something to the rumors of a first-round promise, or that Houstan has a landing spot with which he's comfortable. Houstan's positional size, defensive awareness and perimeter shooting gives him a high floor as a prospect, despite his disappointing freshman season at Michigan.

26. Dallas Mavericks
Trevor Keels
Duke
PG/SG
Age: 18.7

With Jalen Brunson entering unrestricted free agency, the Mavericks might look at improving their backcourt depth through the draft. Keels is the type of big, versatile guard head coach Jason Kidd likes and would make sense pairing alongside a superstar ball handler in Luka Doncic. Keels is one of the youngest prospects in the draft and brings the type of toughness, feel for the game and winning spirit that bodes well for his long-term projection.

27. Miami Heat
Dalen Terry
Arizona
PG/SG
Age: 19.8

Few teams have been as successful drafting in the first round as the Heat have over the past few years. The team seems to prioritize finding young players who fit their mentality culturally and have room to grow in their strong player development infrastructure. Terry has been one of the big winners of the pre-draft process so far, impressing teams with his character on and off the court while dropping glimpses of significant versatility and upside he can grow into at just 19-years old.

28. Golden State Warriors
Christian Braun
Kansas
SG/SF
Age: 21.1

The Warriors' luxury tax situation makes it imperative they find contributors on cheap rookie-scale contracts, something they've proved capable of doing with several shrewd picks. Braun looks like a plug-and-play wing who brings lockdown defense, passing ability, excellent rebounding and is a career 38% 3-point shooter in college. His lack of ballhandling and a slow release on his jumper lowers his ceiling somewhat, but Braun is exactly the type of role-playing, two-way wing many NBA teams are actively seeking these days.

29. Memphis Grizzlies
MarJon Beauchamp
G League Ignite
SG/SF
Age: 21.6

The Grizzlies have proven to be one of the shrewdest teams in the NBA the past few years in terms of using their draft capital. With a loaded roster, it remains to be seen how attractive adding another two first-round picks will be, but Beauchamp's ability to defend multiple positions, score without having plays called for him and do the dirty work to help a team win games could be attractive, as well as the fact that he's already 21 years old and has pro experience under his belt.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Suns)
Blake Wesley
Notre Dame
SG
Age: 19.2

The Thunder have precious few roster spots at their disposal and four draft picks (three first-rounders), meaning there is a chance they won't be making this selection ultimately. Wesley is a physically gifted, instinctual scorer who excels in the open court and creating off the dribble. His youth and tools give him plenty of upside to grow into on both ends of the floor, which could very well be attractive at this stage of the draft.

Second round
31. Pacers (via Rockets)

Andrew Nembhard | Gonzaga | PG | Age: 22.3

32. Magic

Jake LaRavia | Wake Forest | PF | Age: 20.5

33. Raptors (via Pistons)

Peyton Watson | UCLA | SF/PF | Age: 19.7

34. Thunder

Kendall Brown | Baylor | SF | Age: 19.0

35. Magic (via Pacers)

Bryce McGowens | Nebraska | SF | Age: 19.5

36. Trail Blazers

Patrick Baldwin Jr. | Milwaukee | SF/PF | Age: 19.5

37. Kings

Wendell Moore Jr. | Duke | SF | Age: 20.6

38. Spurs (via Lakers)

Khalifa Diop | Gran Canaria | C | Age: 20.3

39. Cavaliers (via Spurs)

Hugo Besson | NZ Breakers | PG/SG | Age: 21.0

40. Timberwolves (via Wizards)

Ismael Kamagate | Paris | C | Age: 21.3

41. Pelicans

Leonard Miller | Fort Erie International Academy | SF/PF | Age: 18.5

42. Knicks

Christian Koloko | Arizona | C | Age: 21.9

43. Clippers

Ryan Rollins | Toledo | SG | Age: 19.9

44. Hawks

Justin Lewis | Marquette | SF/PF | Age: 20.1

45. Hornets

Max Christie | Michigan State | SG | Age: 19.2

46. Pistons (via Nets)

Jaylin Williams | Arkansas | C | Age: 19.9

47. Grizzlies (via Cavaliers)

David Roddy | Colorado St | PF | Age: 21.1

48. Timberwolves

JD Davison | Alabama | PG | Age: 19.6

49. Kings (from Bulls)

Josh Minott | Memphis | PF | Age: 19.5

50. Timberwolves (from Nuggets)

Jean Montero | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 18.9

51. Warriors

Dominick Barlow | Overtime Elite | PF/C | Age: 19.0

52. Pelicans (via Jazz)

Michael Foster | G League Ignite | PF | Age: 19.3

53. Celtics

Gabriele Procida | Fortitudo Bologna | SG | Age: 19.9

54. Wizards (via Mavericks)

Trevion Williams | Purdue | C | Age: 21.6

55. Warriors

Dereon Seabron | NC State | SG | Age: 22.0

56. Cavaliers (via Heat)

Yannick Nzosa | Unicaja Malaga | C | Age: 18.5

57. Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Ron Harper Jr. | Rutgers | SF/PF | Age: 22.1

58. Pacers (via Suns)

Matteo Spagnolo | Cremona | PG | Age: 19.3

 

[shadow_operative 15932]

10 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

One prospect that I'm a little intrigued by is Trevion Williams from Purdue. He's got an insane feel for the game both passing and scoring around the rim and has good handles, but not much shooting range, and he's just a mess on defense. The thing is, I wonder what he could be if he really got into shape and fixed his jumper? My man is fat, I don't care what that body fat % from the combine says. 

Some of the defensive stuff is just mental and could be fixed with reps... poor positioning and getting caught in no man's land defending picks, but he's 6'9“ with a 7'3" wingspan. I think he could be a solid defender and possibly a decent rim protector if he dropped about 20 lbs. Also, his jumper and free throw shooting form looks OK and he's got a really nice touch around the basket, so maybe you could tweak his shot and lock him in the gym until he's competent from outside. But everything else on offense is there. 

He'd be a good mid second round project pick for a team with a good development staff. 

yeah he's intriguing for sure, because his feel for the game and ability to pass the ball show a high iq. im with you- if he can get into shape and learn to shoot a catch-and-shoot three then he'll absolutely stick in the league. with that said, he might find himself happier in Europe, where the game suits him more. if he can get into shape then he could have a long career as a big player for some championship level teams over there. 

[Fastbreak 3996]

I’ve changed my tune on Jabari. I think he is more KD lite than he is Rashard Lewis.

My top 5:

1. Magic - J. Smith Jr
2. OKC - Chet
3. Hou - Banchero
4. Sac - Ivey *
5. Det - Keegan

* sac is of course a wildcard, Ivey isn’t a great fit. They could try to trade up or down or pick someone unexpected.

If Det gets Keegan at 5 I think they will look to trade Grant to Portland for #7. This would give Det either Sharpe or Daniels.

Det would be huge winner if they could make this happen.

[Fud 9559]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nba-offseason-previews-dallas-houston-memphis-new-orleans/id1054081827?i=1000565261067

[Fud 9559]

What part of a KD and Paolo comp even makes sense? 

[shadow_operative 15932]

3 hours ago, Fud said:

What part of a KD and Paolo comp even makes sense? 

they're both natural athletes, with quick twitch muscles. 

[cmontexas 3283]

6 hours ago, Fud said:

What part of a KD and Paolo comp even makes sense? 

The dude 2 posts above yours compared Jabari Smith to KD.  Victor Wembanaya gets compared to KD. Its almost a trope at this point

[Fud 9559]

6 hours ago, cmontexas said:

The dude 2 posts above yours compared Jabari Smith to KD.  Victor Wembanaya gets compared to KD. Its almost a trope at this point

Ha, misread that, but still not a great comp 

[Fud 9559]

 

[Fastbreak 3996]

The dude 2 posts above yours compared Jabari Smith to KD.  Victor Wembanaya gets compared to KD. Its almost a trope at this point

I said “KD lite”. As in he is a tall guy with a nice shot. He doesn’t have the handle, instinct or vision KD has. But who does?

Banchero is in no way like KD. He is more bull than cheetah.

[Fud 9559]

Anyone got this?

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18597]

5 hours ago, Fud said:

Anyone got this?

 

Spoiler

NBA Draft confidential: Coaches, execs discuss top guards in 2022 class
David Aldridge
Jun 7, 2022
32

Save Article
The worm, as it often does in basketball, has turned. (This is not a reference to Dennis Rodman.)

For once — a rarity these days in the NBA, where guard and wing play dominates almost all discussion – the top of this year’s NBA draft is about the bigs. Auburn power forward Jabari Smith, Gonzaga big Chet Holmgren and Duke forward Paolo Banchero are near locks to be, in some order, the top three players taken — by either Orlando, picking first, Oklahoma City at No. 2 or Houston at No. 3. Further making a big man the likely first pick is the Magic’s recent history of taking long, rangy players in the first round — Jonathan Isaac (2017), Mo Bamba (2018) and Chuma Okeke (2019) — under president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond. It was Hammond who, famously, took a flier as the Bucks’ GM in 2013 on a ridiculously long but incredibly green prospect who was playing in Greece’s second-best professional league with Milwaukee’s first-round pick — a young man whose name few in the States could pronounce, or spell, correctly: Giannis Antetokounmpo.

But that doesn’t mean this year’s group of incoming guards brings nothing to the party.

There are any number of incoming guards who have elite scoring potential, toughness, shooting and passing chops. Some, actually, care a little about defending. And if your team hits on the right one, man, it’s like an injection of adrenaline into a franchise. Memphis takes Ja Morant No. 2 in 2019, and the Memphis Grizzlies are, almost overnight, transformed. It took a little longer for the Golden State Warriors after taking Stephen Curry seventh in 2009, but it happened. Similar shapeshifts are taking place in Minnesota (Anthony Edwards, No. 1, 2020), Cleveland (Darius Garland, No. 5, 2019), Atlanta (Trae Young, No. 5, 2018) and Charlotte (LaMelo Ball, No. 3, 2020).

Again, for new readers and subscribers: I make no bones about the fact that this series is, while an offshoot of pre-draft columns I used to write for years for NBA.com, also a blatant rip-off of my colleague Bruce Feldman’s annual NFL Draft Confidential. As Bruce’s work is a complement to Dane Brugler’s insanely thorough NFL pre-draft guide, The Beast, this work serves as an adjunct to Sam Vecenie’s crazy good and complete year-long NBA draft coverage. I will never be as deep into the weeds about draft prospects as Sam, who also does this from about 14 time zones away and with animals in his home. (Sam is ridiculous, in a good way.)

But I have gone to some trouble over the past few weeks to assemble my yearly cross-section of NBA personnel people and executives, along with college head and assistant coaches, who’ve either scouted this year’s top prospects or whose teams played against them this year. In exchange for (most of the time) anonymity, these folks give their unvarnished and frank opinions.

What this is not is a mock draft. I cannot be more direct: Mock drafts are a blight upon the world, whose collective damage may not be known for generations, and are best left to historians. They are a colossal waste of your time and of those who do them. I do not criticize those who do them, for one has to do something for a living, I know. But it’s a time suck because I know that mockers are being lied to, on a constant basis, by agents who swear on a stack of Bibles that their guy, for reals, is going top 10 — while also knowing, for reals, that is as likely as mice being able to rap “California Love” in Spanish.

So, my guys don’t mock. They just tell me what they like and don’t like about the prospects. Are the players coachable? Do they try to defend? How do they vibe with their teammates — including those who, like them, are also trying to get their shine on in anticipation of entering the draft early? Are they good shooters already, or does the shot need work? Are they willing passers? Incorporated in these opinions are the players’ season-long body of work and what the NBA bird dogs have gathered since last month’s combine in Chicago, and subsequent team interviews with the players, along with the players’ individual pro days and pre-draft workouts with teams.

This is the first of three Confidentials before the June 23 draft. The next, in a week or so, will discuss the top wing players in the draft; the last, the week or so after that, will discuss the top big man prospects. (Some players can, and will, obviously play both guard and wing spots; I listed some players at guard, others at wing. For example, Kansas’ Christian Braun is projected as both a guard and a wing; I’ll list him with the wings. It’s not a really big deal either way in today’s positionless NBA.)

It’s Jaden Ivey’s (top-five) world
The only guard likely to crack the elite level of the first round is Ivey, the Purdue sophomore who averaged 17.3 points this past season for the Boilermakers, and who gobbled up all-American honors: first team by the National Association of Basketball Coaches and by the John Wooden Award, second team by Associated Press. He was just the second Purdue underclassman in nine decades to garner first-team All-American honors. The six-foot-four Ivey’s ridiculous hops and first step make him the top incoming guard, with some separation, over the rest of the guard pack, according to my guys. His pedigree is enhanced by his family ties: His mother, Niele, is a longtime former WNBA player and current head coach at Notre Dame, where she played college ball — and where Jaden’s father, Javin Hunter, also starred as a wide receiver in football before playing in the NFL for several seasons.

Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: He’s a (Russell) Westbrook/(Dwyane) Wade type of guy. I like (Purdue head coach) Matt Painter. But if Ivey had been in a situation where they get up and down the floor and get more open, there’s no telling what he could have done. I know Detroit loves Ivey.

Western Conference Executive No. 1: In his own tier. In the next two to three years, wherever he’s drafted, he’ll start immediately.

College Assistant Coach No. 1 (his team played Purdue): Everybody always tries to make the Ja Morant comparison, which I think is a huge reach. It’s not close. If people could lose what they’ve seen from Russell Westbrook, and how they feel about Westbrook, Ivey is very similar. He’s downhill, he’s tough to guard. Against us, he beat us from the free-throw line. He got downhill. He can create a lot of fouls just because of his athleticism. I think he’s got a lot of work to do as a point guard. But I think his upside is really good, and from what I hear, he works his tail off. He’s got a lot of his game he has to work on. The part that people, when they make those comparisons with Ja Morant, it’s a horrible one. Ja Morant was leading college basketball in scoring and assists. Jaden passes it a little bit. And he don’t score it like that.

Western Conference Executive No. 2: Ivey’s a freak. Tad wild but puts immense pressure on the defense. May struggle some in the half court for a while.

Eastern Conference Executive No. 2: He’s got elite speed. He’s got the elite-level speed. And he’s got some size. He’s not like 6-foot or 5-11. He’s got good size to him. And he can touch the paint when he wants to. And in the open floor — oh, he’s got some turbo boost, kind of in the same vein as Ja Morant and Westbrook. And I think his neck up is better than what people give him credit for, because of his mom. He’s been around the game. It’s just getting the reps, and understanding when you put the ball in his hands as a point guard, what he needs to do on the NBA floor…

I think his execution will be a whole lot better than Russell’s, even at a young age. And the difference is, he’ll be getting coached. When Russell was young, Russell was allowed to just go out there. … (Ivey’s) shooting has gotten better. He’s got the toolset to do it (defensively), and he’s competitive enough that he’ll sit down and want to guard people. I don’t see him not giving a shit. He’s competitive enough. And you’ve got to be held accountable. If he’s held accountable, I think the kid will play defense. Watching him, I didn’t see a non-defender…

I see his advantage being at the point. How many traditional point guards are there in the NBA? ‘Cause positionless basketball has filtered into the backcourt, too. His IQ is just as good as Tyrese Maxey’s. Putting him at the point is the advantage. He’s not a guy that you’re going to be running a bunch of pindowns for. His advantage is open floor, getting into the seams, second side, third side, late in the shot clock, he’s got the boogie-woogie to get where he needs to go. He’s got the toolset. Now it’s on whoever drafts him to coach him to bring that all out.

The Mystery Man
Kentucky freshman Shaedon Sharpe is as big an unknown as there’s been coming into a draft as there’s been in some time. The 19-year-old was rated the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2022 draft class by ESPN, Rivals and 247Sports after dominating Nike’s EYBL in 2021. Initially, the thought was Sharpe would practice this year with the Wildcats, but not play until the 2022-23 season. But he enrolled at Kentucky last January, leading to speculation that he would play this season, during the Wildcats’ SEC schedule and in the NCAA Tournament. But he never played in a game before declaring for the NBA Draft in April.

It’s not that NBA people don’t think Sharpe can play. The question is whether one of them will use a top-10 pick on a talent whose scholastic career ended at Dream City Christian Academy in Arizona after starting out in high school in his native Ontario. Teams that weren’t certain if Sharpe would even be eligible for the draft — he turned 19 on May 30, but there was at least some initial uncertainty about his status — had to get up to speed, and there were no games of his to watch in Lexington. Still, someone will take the plunge early on draft night.

Western Conference Executive No. 3: How the (expletive) can you be the fifth pick in the draft if you haven’t played in a year and a half? It’s not like it’s (James) Wiseman and the guy is 7 feet tall. Show me where the five (-star) shit is. Show me.

Western Conference Executive No. 4: (Michael) Porter (Jr.) had those last several games at Missouri (after back surgery). Kevin Porter at USC didn’t play the entire year because he was suspended off and on. This kid, we have nothing but YouTube video to go on. I think you are just taking an absolute swing. And you (have to) have ownership completely behind you in that swing, as well as your head coach and that staff. You gotta be patient, and you better have a plan, and everybody’s on board. You’re saying, we’re getting, he should have been the first pick in the draft, but we’re getting him at seven. We’re getting him at 11. There is just not a lot to go on. … The teams that are allowed to bring him in, it’s not going to be so much the workout. I think it’s going to be just getting to know the kid, see where his head is at. … you know the teams that could do that — the Oklahoma Citys, the San Antonios. The synergy between ownership and front office and coaches and strength and conditioning. … you could see a team’s eyes perk up because of what they see in this kid.

Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin. (Daniel Dunn / USA Today)
Green Room Ready
After Ivey and the uncertainty surrounding Sharpe, several guard prospects are jockeying with one another to go anywhere from inside the top 10 to the end of the lottery. The top prospects include Arizona sophomore Bennedict Mathurin, G League Ignite guard Dyson Daniels, Wisconsin sophomore Johnny Davis, Kansas senior Ochai Agbaji and three freshmen: Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, Notre Dame’s Blake Wesley and Kentucky’s TyTy Washington.

The book of Benn
Eastern Conference Executive No. 3: The system was better than it was with Sean (Miller). Still got a ways to go. The change to the system, more up-tempo, helped him tremendously this year. I went out there and watched practice early. Tommy (Lloyd, Arizona’s coach last season) was trying to get them to really push the pace, almost like Mike D’Antoni with the seven seconds. Of course, it was a little shorter with college, but they were throwing the ball all over the court, and I was thinking ‘Oh, man, this is not going to look well throughout the year,’ with the high turnovers. But they got a lot better as a team. It helped not only Ben; it helped (guard Dalen) Terry, it helped (center Christian) Koloko, and it helped the point guard, (Justin) Kier. But at the end, if Sean was still there, would (Mathurin) have had the year he had, this year? Probably would have had a good year, but not as good a year as he had with Tommy.

I think he’s better one-dribble pull-up, but he can do two. But I think he’s better as a one-dribble pull-up. It’s a better rhythm for him. He still needs to become a better ballhandler. The more times he has to put it on the floor, the more chances he’ll do something wrong. I would say (his range is) a foot beyond the NBA line right now, maybe, in terms of being consistent and knocking down shots. I would say (defense) is not totally consistent, but if he needs to focus in and shut someone down at a certain time of a game, he’s a pretty good defender. But he has to be more disciplined, more in focus during games than just down the stretch…

During the NCAA Tournament, it’s a finality in terms of the game. You don’t win, you’re out. So there is more pressure. But there’s also more focus, determination, desire to make sure that the play is done right, he makes the right play, or he knocks down the shot to make sure his team continues to go on. In that regard, do we look at that as scouts? Yes. Because it’s a big-time moment.  … The story does have meaning, understands what his path or direction or journey might be, and how he overcomes those things.

Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: That guy, he reminds me of Ray Allen. Athletic. I don’t know if he shoots it quite as well. Ball skills are just OK. He can get better. Better defender than Ray, but similar. … They say him getting to the NBA Academy in Mexico may have saved him. He might have been in trouble had that not happened. Huge upside. Until he got to Arizona, he was an inside player. He doesn’t even realize what he can do. Doesn’t have a midrange game per se, and his ball skills are suspect, but that’s because he hasn’t played on the perimeter that long. But I think that can be developed.

The Dyson vacuum
Western Conference Executive No. 4: If we re-draft in three to four years, he may be the guy who should have been taken higher. A 6-7 18-year-old that can play the point guard today, has a phenomenal basketball IQ and mature beyond his years. He can defend three positions. His shooting, sure, it needs work. But these kids get 250, 300 reps every single day, so his shooting will be adequate enough. He makes players around him better, and he can pass the ball. If there was a highlighted guy right now in my mind, this could be one where we should have took him and let the developmental time elapse, and we’ve got ourselves a cornerstone of our team for the next 10-12 years.

Jason Hart, Ignite Head Coach: That’s the difference with coming to Ignite and maybe going to college. If Dyson would have gone to college and gotten off to a slow start, he would have sat down on that bench for a junior or senior, and he would have gotten lost. Here, it was, (Ignite Program Director) Rod Strickland was saying, ‘We’ve got to bring it out of him.’ And the fastest way to do that was to keep him out there. I’m not taking you out. So there’s no life raft over here. It took him about two or three weeks to get used to the speed of the game. Now granted, he’s 18 years old, and he was over here from Australia by himself. So we’re talking about music, culture, living, weather, time. It just took a little time. Once he got acclimated, he took off. But I told him, ‘I’m not taking you out of the game. You make a mistake, you get tired, I’ll bring you out then. But you’ve got to fight through this.’ And it was more like the Orlando Magic and OKC — we’re going to let the young guys develop. It’s the same pattern. They’ve got to develop.

Western Conference Executive No. 2: Versatile with upside. Really covers.

G League Coach (his team played Ignite): When I saw him early, everyone was saying ‘He’s probably going to be a lottery pick, and I’m like ‘That dude? For real?’ … He struggled with his confidence early, but he improved the whole year. Every part of his game improved. Even his shooting, which, right now, is subpar. His shooting improved dramatically. He’s got great size. Seems to have a good basketball IQ. I could see that. Even when we played them, I could pick up that he had a very good basketball IQ. And the fact that he improved after such a rough start says to me, he has some toughness about him. … size, can do a little bit of everything. Passes the ball well. Looking at the tape, he’s actually shooting the ball better than Ben (Simmons), which might not be saying much. But at least he’s willing to shoot some 3s. But clearly will be in the top 15 someplace. …

Thinking about what he was like in November to now, he just moves with so much more confidence, more fluidity, more strength. He can probably guard one through four in the NBA. And even on some smaller fives, he’ll front the post, he’ll box them out, that type of thing. The big question mark is obviously the shooting piece. Just needs reps. Guys get better.

Heeeeere’s Johnny!
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Wisconsin): Really about their fourth or fifth best player last year (2020-21). Had his breakout game (this season, in January) at Purdue where he almost single-handedly won the game for them, made all these big shots, on the road, down the stretch, in high ball screens. He hit multiple 3s and was very aggressive driving to the basket. I think that catapulted him in the draft. A little like (Iowa forward Keegan) Murray in the tournament — he got banged up late in the year, and he kind of came back to earth a little bit. He and (Badgers guard) Brad Davison had to do so much on their team, I think they got worn out. They had the Big Ten season won outright, total, and they lost to Nebraska in their last home game when they had no business losing. So they had to tie for the Big Ten regular season instead of winning outright, and then they played terrible the rest of the year. (Guard Chucky) Hepburn got hurt. They weren’t deep enough. And Johnny Davis got hurt in the Nebraska game, and he was just a normal player the last four, five games.

College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team also played Wisconsin): Good one-on-one player. The thing I’m not sold on is his ability to shoot the 3. As far as catching going to get his shot, his midrange is very strong. Good defender. Not sure how consistently he’s going to shoot; 6-5 at best, I would say. Good, strong, two-foot jumper in the paint. It’s going to be interesting with him. Not sure about his ballhandling in the open court. One or two dribbles, straight-line driver.

Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: I think he’s being a little overhyped. His upside isn’t what some of these other guys are. But I like him. First, his shooting range is suspect. He can improve that. He’s a good athlete, not as good as Mathurin. What he does, he does. I don’t think his game is going to change. He’s a power type two, backs guys down. Good midrange. Mathurin: He has a lot of room for improvement. Davis: He is what he is.

Ohhhhhhchai
College Assistant Coach No. 4 (his team played Kansas): He just came back this year playing with so much more confidence. Obviously, everybody said his game improved. I think his game improved because he was a lot more confident. He came in this year like, I’m the man. I’m the guy. There was no hesitation in the pull-up jumper, there was no hesitation in the transition 3s. He was always able to get the ball to the basket. The way he shot his pull-up jumpers and transition 3s was the difference. I just felt he came back with a lot of confidence. What he likes to do more than anything is just come off and pull up. He doesn’t really come off the ball screen and get it to the basket. If he’s going right, he can do that. But for the most part, he’d rather just come off and pull up, that midrange game. He’s good defensively when he’s locked in.

Western Conference Executive No. 4: He’s solid. You’re hitting a single and hoping it gets to a double. I don’t think he has the talents and upside and potential that Ivey has, that Mathurin has, that Dyson has, that Branham has … if he gets drafted by a good team, (if he’s) surrounded by a playoff-thirsty team that’s right there, with players that are established, I think he fits into that box really well. But if he went to, say, a not-very-good team, and has to do a lot of things on his own, I think he could be exposed some. There were times this year where that was the case when teams were just keying on him, and he had a couple of 2-of-13 nights, 5-of-18. But there’s a role for him. He’s too good of a kid, he works too hard, he’s about the right stuff.

Pro-Branham
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Ohio State): Really had a great year. He got better as the season went on, especially if you let him get to his right hand. He loves (to) fake going left, then goes between the legs or crossover dribble and comes back to his right hand. I don’t think he’s as tall as advertised. I’ll be anxious to see what they officially measured at. Definitely a two. Streak shooter. Can get on a roll. He had some big games. I don’t think his (defensive commitment) was great throughout the year. He’ll have to improve in that area. I don’t know how good a defender Branham is.

Western Conference Executive No. 4: In that tier with Daniels. I don’t know another guard, unless you can name him, that came into the season not very heralded, and how he went through the year and progressed on that trajectory, and how he finished, was pretty impressive. We put Malaki in very high regard. His age, his versatility positionally, his basketball IQ. Guys like him are only in one place: They’re playing at least as a rotational or as a key reserve on NBA teams. If you were to merge Cat Mobley and Jordan Poole — if you put those two together — I think you have Malaki.

I saw him early, and he was good. I didn’t think he was a one-and-done. I saw him in the middle (of the season), and I was like, I’ve got to be doing my work on this guy a lot more soundly. At the end of the year, I’m not sure there was anybody playing more consistently than this kid. Jaden Ivey was up and down; Johnny Davis had some (bad) days, but Johnny wasn’t playing with anybody. Mathurin, I thought, the last 30, 40 days, was somewhat inconsistent. Whereas this kid took his game to another level. I believe he’s very close with Mathurin.

Team Wesley
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Notre Dame): He’s got it all, except can he shoot the 3 consistently enough? He’s got ball skills, a good defender for a young player, can make midrange shots, he’s athletic. I think he’s a true point. But he should be a better shooter, you know what I mean? He just hasn’t shot it consistently well enough. But he’s legit.

College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Notre Dame): I think he’s fabulous. I love him. If Paolo Banchero hadn’t been in the league, he’d be freshman of the year in the ACC. He can get downhill, he can score, he can shoot it. Got good size, athleticism. I was thoroughly impressed with him. He’s good. I like him a lot. I think Blake Wesley is a dude.

College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Notre Dame): The first time I saw him was on tape … I started watching him … and he jumped off the tape. I had never heard of him. It’s not like he was Paolo (Banchero) or (Trevor) Keels or those guys that were highly ranked. And I’m watching their game against Kentucky, and I’m like ‘Who is this?’ Nobody could stay in front of him. When you see him in person, the size, the length, the stride, the explosiveness … I think he’s really good. I think he’s got a very, very high upside. Seems to be a kid who’s that hungry, that has a chip on his shoulder because he wasn’t entitled. I know a lot of people have compared him to Jaden Ivey – same high school and all that. …

I think he’ll continue to get better with the shot. It’s not broken. … Like most freshmen, he’s inconsistent with it, had some inconsistencies with it, just because of the speed and the work, everything like that. As he goes on this journey where it’s all basketball, you don’t have to worry about school, it’s not broken. I think he’ll become a consistent shooter. I don’t ever think he’ll be a ‘shooter,’ but I think he’ll shoot it well enough that you have to guard him, and that allows the explosiveness and athleticism to be even more effective. I love (Notre Dame) Coach (Mike) Brey. (But) they don’t play a lot of defense there. I do think with the length and the athleticism and the physical attributes he has, he could be a really good defender. You didn’t see it this year just because their thing was they were just going to outscore you.

My, TyTy
College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team played Kentucky): Love him. Thought he was a guy that, if you want to get the full feel for who he can be in the NBA, look at the games he played without Sahvir Wheeler. Sahvir Wheeler is an excellent downhill point guard, but teams are going to make him shoot. When he’s on the court with TyTy, you’re not going to let TyTy or (Kellan) Grady get shots; you’re going to try to make the other guys shoot the ball. And TyTy played without the ball a lot when he played with Sahvir. But when he had the ball in his hands at Georgia, he had the assist record…

He’s got great size. When he plays the point, he plays with really good pace. I’m a believer. I think he’s going to be really good in the NBA. In my eyes (he’s a point guard). They ended up getting Sahvir Wheeler, which, a lot of times, when you’re somebody like Kentucky, you may not have the luxury to see what those freshmen can do, because you’re in a high-pressure position to win. But if they had to do it all over, and TyTy was where he was when they got there, who knows if they would have gone out and gotten a veteran point guard?

Western Conference Executive No. 4: Interesting one. Because in the last few years, guards at Kentucky have been much better pros than collegians. Tyrese Maxey. Shai (Gilgeous)-Alexander. Immanuel Quickley. B.J. Boston. Four guys in the last five, six years, you could say they were OK at Kentucky, but once they got into the league, they’ve had pretty good showings. I’m not sure TyTy is the same scorer as those three, but he may be a better playmaker in terms of being able to find guys than those other three. TyTy is in that same tier with Ochai and Max Christie. And if he has a great draft workout, he could get into that Daniels/Mathurin tier.

Tennessee’s Kennedy Chandler. (Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
The next tier of guards
This group has first-round grades from a lot of teams. Some may go higher than the previous tier of guards. But most are more likely to go outside the lottery than inside it. They include Tennessee’s Kennedy Chandler, Michigan State’s Max Christie, Ignite’s Jaden Hardy, Toledo’s Ryan Rollins, Duke’s Trevor Keels and Arizona’s Dalen Terry.

Cape (for) Kennedy
College Assistant Coach No. 6 (his team played Tennessee): I love Chandler. A little small, but his height doesn’t affect how he plays. Some of them, it affects them. The kid who went to Auburn (Sharife Cooper), his size affected him. Chandler’s very athletic. He’ll get up and defend you. When they switch, he’ll play you tough. He can score. And he wins. He does winning stuff. I know this may be blasphemy, but I think he’s a poor man’s Trae Young, to be honest. ‘Cause he can shoot it, but he wins. He passes it better than you think. He came to college as a scorer, but Rick (Barnes) made him pass the ball, which I think will help him. I think he’s going to be a really, really good backup point guard. I don’t think he’s going to be a starting point guard, but (he could be like) the kid who was at Duke, Tyus Jones and a couple of these small backup point guards, a little bit better than Quinn Cook.

To the Max
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Michigan State): Early in the year, all the mocks were crazy about him. I know he was frustrated he didn’t handle the ball more. Hoping to be more of a combo guard where he brought the ball up and facilitated more. Of course, that’s what all these kids want. (But) they used him coming off of pindowns in the corner, and a spot-up shooter a little bit. He’s got some good length. He has really improved his skills from high school. He’s much more competitive. He’s a better defender. They put him in situations where they needed to have him be one of the main guys. He hit the freshman wall a little bit. He had as many games where he had six points as well as 20 points. I think he needs another year of college personally, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what’s going to happen. I know Max really got better defensively.

College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team also played Michigan State): I’m a little shocked that he’s staying in (the draft). I would think another year would help his profile. I don’t see him being a first this year. Good skill set. More athletic than you think. Can shoot it pretty good. I’m not sure the system he plays in was the best for his shooting.

USA Basketball Member No. 1: The ultimate, how can I say it, in the front of the line. Always the first to show up in the gym. The first to ask the question in the team meetings. Always, literally, pushing himself as like ‘I’m going to be the voice; I’m going to be the leader,’ in a good way. He was always, like the team would be quiet, he would be the one to say something. He’s the extrovert when it comes to things like that. And he was a great teammate. And he played great. We had Max three times before we actually picked the team, in three camps, and he was that way from the first camp. Always, we go through drills at the first camp. The second camp, he was going to be first in line to make sure everybody knew, saw the way the drill was supposed to go. The guy who’d say ‘Hey, fellas, let’s make sure we pick up the trash in the cafeteria.’ He was that guy. For jerks, he was probably like ‘Why is this dude telling me what to do?’ But for the guys we wanted around, they would definitely feed off of that type of leadership.

He played great. But then his ceiling is lower than a guy like Jabari (Smith Jr.) or a guy like (A.J. Griffin). He was so comfortable quicker than everybody else, he played better faster. And he played so well, that was able to sustain him through everything. He didn’t always play great. The first couple of camps, you’d say he was one of the five best players. When we went to Brazil (for the FIBA Americas Under 16 Championships, in 2019), he was not a starter. Became a catch-and-shoot guy. He broke the USAB record for 3s in a game. We utilized his ability to make a jump shot. But he’s capable of doing so much more. He didn’t have to do that with us.

Western Conference Executive No. 4: How many guys from Michigan State, under (Tom) Izzo, have had the freedom to explore getting 18 to 22 every night? I can’t think of one. Jason Richardson had his days. Zach Randolph had his days. But recently? Names aren’t flying off my tongue. Shannon Brown? I just can’t think of many that have had the opportunity to get out of that system. But, this kid can shoot. The value that NBA teams put on shooting today is at a premium. This kid’s, what, a 19-year-old shooter? Is he going to step on an NBA floor next year? I doubt it. But I think he’ll have an impact (down the road).

Quite Hardy
G League Coach (his team played Ignite): His game is, he’s not going to be allowed to play his game in the NBA. He’s not going to be a guy that’s going to able to come in and just put up a bunch of shots. He’s a volume shooter. Not much of a playmaker right now. When we played them. … I thought to myself, ‘Jason Hart’s got his work cut out for him with this kid.’ I thought he was just out there trying to get shots up and try to impress the scouts and not really learn how to play. … He’s athletic. Well, let me say: he’s got a good build, but he’s not super athletic. The build tells me he’ll have the durability to stay on the court, be available. He scores enough that I think someone takes him in the late 20s, just because when you get to that part of the draft, you start gambling on talent — not necessarily what he is now. But can the talent take him to a level where he’s a serviceable two guard, backup two guard in the NBA?

His style of play, his size and the lack of playmaking for others is going to be the big thing that people are going to question him on. What you hope, and I do think it happens (more often) than not, is as these guys get older, and they start to understand the landscape — and, frankly, as they get closer to being out of the league they get it. OK, I’ve got to start playing better defense — and, again, I question whether he really wants to. I’ve got to rebound better — does he really want to? Pass the ball — does he really want to? But as they closer to being out of the league, they find God and they start doing those things.

Rolling with Rollins
College Head Coach 4 (his team played Toledo): Can shoot the 3, moves without the ball, always solid, high basketball IQ. We double-teamed him. His number didn’t look the best against us, but we had to double team him to get the ball out of his hands. They run more sets, a ton of sets, and a lot of wide pins, pindowns, to get him moving. They run him around a little bit to get him going downhill. Hard to find a little bit. He moves well without the ball, and he’s an exceptional passer. That’s what made him hard to guard. He made the right decisions. That’s where the IQ comes in. He was able to put guys in good positions. Wouldn’t say he’s the best defender, but he’s decent. He’s not horrible. And he tries and competes at the defensive end.

Western Conference Executive No. 4: Let’s see how this plays out. I could see him be the climber, the sweetheart, after Chicago. And maybe I could be completely wrong. But Bones (Hyland) came out of there and shut it down after one day.

Pro-Keels
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Duke): One of the youngest guys in the league so that’s always a factor when you’re evaluating. We played them early. He was not shooting a high percentage. That was the surprising thing to me. I thought he was a little like Dennis Scott. Tough kid. Good player. I worry a little bit about his body, because he’s a little doughy looking. But he’s always been that way. And he’s young. He’s got baby fat, or whatever. I like him. He’s a good competitor. Great shooter.

College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Duke): Hard one to tell. He’s got a ready-made (pro) body, but he’s an average athlete. As far as a shot creator for himself, I think he’s going to struggle a little bit. Against these college guys, he’s putting them in the basket. He’s driving them in there, and bodying them up and making plays around the basket. I can’t see him doing that (in the NBA), because he’s an average athlete. And I don’t know how really good a shooter he is. I wasn’t, because I understand it, but I could have seen him coming back. He’s going to be borderline, in my opinion. I don’t know if he’s going to go first round or not. I do think he’s got a ready-made body. He can handle the ball. His athleticism and explosiveness would scare me a little bit.

College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Duke): He’s like a linebacker playing football. He shot the hell of it against us. I know for the season he had some inconsistencies. But he’s another guy that can play off of the ball. He can handle it, get you into stuff. I do think he’s got a good upside. He’s competitive. On both sides, he’s competitive. Very rarely do you see a freshman who’ll be competitive on the defensive end, but I thought he did a good job of that.

Talkin’ Terry
Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: My opinion, Dalen Terry would have been better off going back to school, personally. But somebody’s telling him he’s going to be a first-round pick. I don’t see that. I think he’s gotten better. I think he’s got a lot of upside. But offensively he’s still challenged a little bit. Having said that, he’s turned himself into a guy that can make a shot, but he isn’t a shooter. He’s more of a wing passer, so it almost fits in perfect with Mathurin.

Vanderbilt’s Scottie Pippen Jr. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
One (or more) liners on late first/early second-rounders
Multiple guards, including Gonzaga’s Andrew Nembhard, Vanderbilt’s Scotty Pippen Jr. and Mississippi State’s Iverson Molinar, played well at the NBA Draft Combine late last month. They, and others like Duke’s Wendell Moore, Alabama’s JD Davison, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens, Georgia Tech’s Michael Devoe and St. Joseph’s Jordan Hall, will almost certainly hear their names called on draft night. It’s just a question of when.

Nembhard
Western Conference Executive No. 5: Gets drafted for sure. He’s a good player and would be surprised if he didn’t end up as a winning NBA player. (Malcolm) Brogdon would be the high-end comp. Andrew is good.

Western Conference Executive No. 3: He played well in the second game in Chicago. Does what he does. Crafty guy. If you want the crafty guy who can make some shots, you probably take Nembhard.

Pippen Jr.
Western Conference Executive No. 3: Pretty good. Tad selfish in trying to score. But did impress some people with his ability to make plays.

College Assistant Coach: Coming back, I thought he did a lot to help himself. He improved defensively, and he improved catching and shooting the ball. I still think he’s going to be a second-rounder, but you never know. I think he’s going to be double-digit years in the NBA. That’s my take on him. … I think he’s all basketball. I don’t think the NBA lifestyle is going to, that’s not going to excite him. You always worry about that with guys — how will they respond once they’re able to make some money? That’s not going to change his lifestyle.

Stack (Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse) coached him as hard as anyone. They’re going to be used to being coached when they come out of Vanderbilt. I just think it’s going to be an easy transition for him. He can play on the ball, and he can play off the ball, especially as he becomes a better catch and shoot guy… You watch some of his games this year — in Rupp Arena, in Auburn, some of those tough places to play, the Hawaiian tournament, there was no doubt he would go out there and play well. He can play when those lights come on.

Molinar
College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team played Mississippi State):  I liked him a lot. Excellent driver from the 45s. He didn’t do much against us because we’re a no-middle team. But he doesn’t shoot the ball well. I don’t think he’s a point. I think he has to begin to learn how to spray the ball. That’s why I think Pippen is ahead of him. Scottie can make passes to the opposite corners. When I’m watching those guys, it’s the same thing I said a few years ago about Kobi Simmons (the former Arizona guard). Kobi’s an excellent basketball player, but as a point guard, you’ve got to be able to spray the ball to the opposite side. Iverson doesn’t do that. He gets downhill from the 45s, gets into that paint, and he’s really dangerous. But he doesn’t do that. He’s playing in a good defensive system at Mississippi State, but I think he’s just OK defensively. He’s got to work on his shot. Because he’s not going to be able to get to the basket like that in the NBA.

Western Conference Executive No. 3: He’s the best athlete of that group. (But) Molinar can’t make shots at all. The shot’s broken. Apparently, he (injured) his shoulder and it’s really hurting his shot.

Moore
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Duke): Jack of all trades, master of none. But a good player. Could he get himself as a defender, a guy that might be able to make an open shot, a rotational spot in the NBA? Yeah, I think so. He’s good, but I don’t know that he brings anything at a high level that’s an NBA skill.

College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Duke): Very explosive, athletic. Good defender. He improved himself by coming back. He’s got good size. A bit of an inconsistent shooter — and, maybe, sometimes, a little loose with the ball. His decision-making sometimes can be a little (questionable). He’s in the mix for a first-rounder, but I could see him slipping, too. … He’s got some good intangibles. Looks like he’s a winner, a team guy, kept them together. That wasn’t Trevor’s deal. He was a freshman. At the end of the year, truth be told, (Jeremy) Roach played better than maybe both of them, to be honest.

College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Duke): He came in with all this attention, right away. Before he played a game, he’s in the mock drafts, first-round pick and things like that. And then he went through some difficult times. His sophomore year, people didn’t guard him, and he lost so much confidence in himself. It’s a great story of maturation, taking the time, running your own race. And he just got better and better. I think because of that, those young guys had respect for him. And he’s such a good dude, too. I think he’s the kind of guy you can plug in at any of the guard spots. He reminds me of a Derrick White. He’s not a point, but he can play the point, he can bring the ball up and get you into your stuff. He doesn’t shoot it well enough to be a two, but he can make shots. He’s big enough where he can defend the three. He’s not a three, but he can defend the three. I just felt like he’s a jack of all trades who can do a little bit of everything. His body’s matured since he’s gotten there. He’s gotten bigger and stronger. I thought he got more athletic. And he’s gotten stronger and changed his body.

Davison
College Assistant Coach No. 6 (his team played Alabama): I think he’s gonna struggle. It’s gonna take him a while. You have to take him because of his ability. You can go under ball screens in college, but you’re going to struggle in the NBA. I don’t see a lot of guys that can’t shoot (in the NBA). (Tyrese) Maxey, coming out of college, I thought he was ready. He’s not close to Maxey, to me. But his athleticism is next level. A lot of people would say Russell Westbrook, but Russell Westbrook was dominant in college. That’s going too far, now. But, I think he has elite athleticism. His basketball IQ is not that high. You put him on the right team, eventually, he can help. He’s not (Moses) Moody, he’s not Maxey, he’s not Herb Jones. He’s not Cam (Reddish). Cam was a flat-out scorer. To me, his only NBA skill is athleticism.

College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team also played Alabama): Athletically, he can just do things. I think his body and athleticism, I think he can be in the mold of a Marcus Smart even though he’s not there defensively yet. That hasn’t been what he’s all about and tried to be. But physically, and athletically, he can do a lot of things that other guys can’t do. He can become a better shooter. He’ll never be as good as the ones that can really shoot the basketball, but he’s an excellent driver and finisher. You could see him playing in Dallas with Luka, or in L.A. with LeBron. He can play with teams where he can guard the point guard and doesn’t have to play exclusively point, because he’s got a way to go to be a true point guard. You know how they started doing in football, just picking guys for running back or quarterback who are just athletes? He’s such a superior athlete, he’s going to make it. It’s just a matter of what role he ends up being. But he’s going to make it. Whether he morphs into a point guard, or becomes a defensive guy. You’ll find something. Because he’s not going to be outmatched out there.

McGowens
Western Conference Executive No. 4: I would put him in that same box as Johnny Davis as not playing with anybody, and he had to do a lot of stuff on his own. And Fred (Hoiberg) was very restrictive most of the year with allowing him to do his thing. His getting to the free-throw line led the Big Ten and it may have led the NCAA. He has talent and he has game. Physically, he’s going to have to get stronger, which all of them do, but right now, physically, he’s behind the eight-ball some. A good athlete. And he can go get it. … If he was at North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, I think he would be getting a little more love. But because of how poor Nebraska was this year, he could be getting docked a few points.

College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Nebraska): Super, super athletic. Great in the open floor. Probably needs to get a little more consistent with his shooting. But NBA skill set, elite athleticism. Body needs to fill out more. But he has everything you would want in a wing player. Explosive first step, got a good feel for the game. From the games I’ve seen, Fred really gave him a lot of freedom, let him play, ran a lot of stuff for him. Things changed once his brother (Trey) came back, because his brother got hurt. He was a wing player. Probably slowed a little bit. They had a ball-dominant point guard that slowed him a little. Probably needs to get better defensively, but he has the tools. He’s long and athletic. It’s so hard for those guys this year, being on a bad team, being a young guy. I don’t know how good their veteran leadership was. But he does have the ability, and he does compete.

Devoe
College Head Coach 2 (his team played Georgia Tech): I liked him as a junior. He didn’t have a great senior year. He can score (though). I see him as a two-way guy, second-round guy. Good personality, good size, had some moments early in the year. It gets hard when you’re losing, and everybody starts game planning for your ass. … I don’t think he’s a first-rounder. I think as the year went along, the year got rough for him. … The year before, he had (Jose) Alvarado and they had the big kid, Moses Wright. So they had some other options. When he became the option, it got a little tougher for him.

Second round (or later) roundtable (in alphabetical order)
James Akinjo, Baylor

Eastern Conference Executive No. 3: We don’t (have him drafted), but that’s not to say someone couldn’t take him late in the second and make him a two-way. Maybe the G League as a point guard if they think he has some upside. But we don’t have him in the top 60. Akinjo is very intense, very competitive, has very good athleticism at point guard. But he plays so fast that sometimes he overlooks his teammates. And decision-making can be questionable when he’s going that quick.

College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team played Baylor): Inconsistent, especially with his jumper. He’s got really good ball skills, so he can get his shot. Really good ball skills with 1-2 crossovers, and his pullup is good. But he’s small. He’s small. Obviously, he plays with a lot of confidence, but if you look at the league and guys his size … they probably list him at 6-1. He’s probably 5-11. He didn’t show the range on 3s on a consistent basis. More a pullup type game than catch and shoot or shooting from 3. He’s not a (Fred) VanVleet, with that type of range. He’s probably got better ball skills, quick off the dribble, than VanVleet. But I don’t know if he has that kind of range like a VanVleet. He’s good in transition. He can finish at the basket. Just okay defensively. The things that made them good defensively were their bigs. Their bigs were able to switch ball screens. There was nobody on that team like (Davion) Mitchell that could just lock down a player one on one.

Hugo Besson, New Zealand Breakers 

Western Conference Executive No. 6: With the European kids that have made it, that have really made it and stuck with it, I think they have a certain thing in common mentally, instead of physically. And when I saw Hugo play, compared to the kid (projected first-round pick Ousmane) Dieng that he played with … they really loved the Dieng kid, and they weren’t very fond of Hugo. I think he had a little bit of stubbornness to learning the language. And when you watch him, he kind of carries himself with a little bit of an attitude. Australia’s kind of a league with a bunch of older guys, and then they have a couple of young guys on each team. It’s a league where that shows up pretty easily. To me, talent-wise, he would have a shot. But I wouldn’t bet money on him, just ’cause — now, this can always change. He’s not talented enough to think he’s a prime-time player. So … I feel like he’s one of these kids that’s going to bounce around a little bit, probably be disappointed with his playing time. When he does get an opportunity, he may not do enough little things to endear himself to his staff or his teammates. Now, he’s young, so that could change.

Keon Ellis, Alabama 

College Assistant Coach No. 4 (his team played Alabama): I think he’s just a good, solid guard. He has to get into a situation, he’s going to probably going to have to work his way through the minor leagues. There’s a ton of guys like him in the minor leagues. What he does in that type of situation will determine if he becomes an NBA player. But he’s not a point guard. He’s a thin two-guard.

Jean Montero, Overtime Elite

Western Conference Executive No. 6: Size in our league is important. You can’t just be pretty good when you are small. You have to be better to negate that. I think he could be a backup in the league, but it may take a long road to get there.

Eastern Conference Executive No. 4: Like his feel at the point guard position. Undersized, which is a concern. I’ve read late first for him…(but) I would assume second round.

Gabriele Procida, Fortitudo Bologna

Western Conference Executive No. 6: I think Procida has a chance, depending on where (he’s drafted). You know how it goes with stash picks; it’s always who’s looking for the stash. I can’t guarantee a number. But Procida’s big – he’s like 6-6, 6-7, and he can really shoot, and he’s a pretty good athlete in space … Procida, I think he can run the floor, have him line up for a 3, and then he’s big enough to where he can probably guard a little bit.

Alondes Williams, Wake Forest

College Head Coach No. 3 (his team played Wake Forest): He was one of the most interesting players for me. You look at his career, and the most he had averaged was seven points, and all of a sudden he comes and is arguably the best player in our league. He’s an older, strong, physical guard, really physical. Has a chip on his shoulder. I was surprised when we played them, I felt like he has an incredible feel for the game. And that kind of surprised me a little bit when you look at somebody with physicality at the guard position. I thought he would be just kind of a bully guard, a guy who’s 23, 24 years old, playing against college guys. But he has a good feel for the game. He shoots it well enough. I’m not saying he’s a good shooter, but he makes shots. He shoots a good percentage. He’s a really good passer, his feel. He can really defend – when he wants to. The thing about him was, I just felt at times, he could be lazy. It was almost like it was so easy, OK, I’m gonna try this pass. He could get careless with the ball. But when he really wanted to defend, I thought he was as good a perimeter defender as there is in the league. And with his physicality, he can guard anyone, 1 through 4. He loved the big moments. He showed up in every big moment.

 

[Fud 9559]

 

[Post Oak 20295]

35 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Tim Hardaway and Dwight Powell for #4. Call it in

[Fud 9559]

 

[Fud 9559]

Dieng, Jovic, and Hardy would be a pretty interesting haul for SA

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[ocugolf 1214]

36 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Thunder were never going to pick all three first rounders.  Don't have the roster spots.  Getting another first and serviceable big isn't bad at all.  They can always buyout or trade Green.  I assume there would be some takers.

[Message Board User 12396]

2 hours ago, Fud said:

 

It would be such a Kings thing to do if they were to select Keegan Murray instead of Ivey.

[Fastbreak 3996]

It would be such a Kings thing to do if they were to select Keegan Murray instead of Ivey.

Trading up with the Rockets to select him would be more Kings-like.

[Fud 9559]

 

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[Fud 9559]

Vecenie was asked which prospect in the draft most resembles Robert Williams, and he said Ishmael Kamagate, because of his movement ability, shot block ability, and rawness coming into the draft

 

He seems like an interesting sleeper

[Mitch Cumsteen 18597]

Here's the next installment on the draft confidential from the Athletic, wings/forward edition:

Spoiler

NBA Draft Confidential: Coaches, execs discuss Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, other top forwards
David Aldridge
Jun 14, 2022
41

Save Article
As ever, the word “wings” does a lot of work when describing this year’s top NBA draft prospects at the formerly known as small forward and power forward positions.

Yes, the more common image/word bubble when thinking about the modern-day position is a long, lanky, switchable player on defense that uses his length to contest shots. But it’s also a player who also can bury shots from deep, while being able to handle the ball well enough to get to the front of the rim through contact. Think of the patron saint of the position: Kevin Durant. Jayson Tatum also comes to mind. So do Jaylen Brown and Brandon Ingram; Mikal Bridges and Miles Bridges; Pascal Siakam and John Collins.

More traditional, taller fours like Evan Mobley are certainly still in high demand. But players who had formerly been dismissed as “tweeners” back in the day have found their calling in today’s league: think Grant Williams, Julius Randle, Lugentz Dort, Terance Mann and others.

The league has adapted, suddenly and completely. And so have the needed skill sets to play in the frontcourt. So, this year’s group of prospects runs the gamut, and will be populated throughout the first round of the June 23 draft.

What this compilation is not, though, is a mock draft. It is my annual cross-section of opinions from people who I’ve come to trust over the decades — people who tell the truth. Sometimes, a harsh truth. But they give that in exchange for obviously desired relative anonymity. It’s been a fair exchange over the years: unvarnished opinions of strengths and weaknesses, comps, how college teams tried to defend them, how they project at the next level – and, when it can be fairly determined, the makeup of a young man. Are they coachable? Do they blend in with their teams, whether they were the obvious, lone star, or part of a collective of future first-rounders on a Power 6 team?

We started with the guards last week; we’ll finish with the bigs next week, just before draft night.

Paolo and Jabari
Picking between Jabari Smith Jr., the 6-10, smooth shooting (42 percent on 3s) 19-year-old forward from Auburn, and Paolo Banchero, Duke’s do-everything freshman who lived up to his substantial hype coming to Durham, obviously is a matter of both preference and existing team roster construction. The two freshmen phenoms are their own two-man tier, at the top of the draft. Either, along with Gonzaga big man Chet Holmgren, could go first. Neither Smith nor Banchero will be there after three, when Houston picks, following Orlando at one and Oklahoma City at two. Each is a foundational player, though both have vastly different skill sets. But they’re elite, the kind of players around which franchises can soar.

Smith

USA Basketball Member: Jabari came out of nowhere. He literally showed up to camp when we picked the team. He had never been invited to the three previous minicamps. That was his first USA experience, the camp in Florida when we were picking the team. That never goes well. Everyone’s first experience, it’s always the ball’s different, the rules are different, the other guys have been here before, so I’ve got to kind of find my way. He didn’t have that. He’s one of the few guys in that setting I didn’t see struggle the first time through. He dominated the first time. That camp was the first time NBA scouts were allowed to come to our training camps for the younger teams. So this is 16 and under, in 2019. Just so happens, Jabari Smith is there, and he killed it. Any scout who watched us for the two days had Jabari in the top two or three guys there. They started their file on him in May of 2019, and three years later, he’s done what he’s needed to do.

He wasn’t like this physically dominant dude. But he made shots. He could handle the ball. He could pass the ball. You could see the other parts that he didn’t have because he wasn’t strong enough, but you could see it was there. His body had to get there. He could move his feet, so you knew he’d be able to switch stuff. He was really good. And you could see how good he was going to be. This long, lanky kid that came in. He could shoot the ball, he could create for himself. It’s just going to be, is he strong enough? It’s going to be physical. But he’s so good. His length allows him to shoot over people.

It looks like, watching Auburn, he’s gotten a lot stronger. His body is starting to fill out. He’s still not where he’s going to be. If I’m playing the Celtics, you’re either going to put Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum on him. He’s got to be able to take the physicality that comes along with that. And now, you’re not always going to be able to use your length to shoot over people; you’ve got to create some space to shoot over people. He’s got the skill set to do it. It’s just, is he going to have the strength to do it? Eventually, he will.

Eastern Conference executive 1: If you asked me that question early in the year, when (Duke) played at the Garden, I would have said Banchero. Now, what you see from Banchero now, he’s about 85 percent of the player he’s going to be. Fine-tune some things, improve the jump shot. But the other kid (Smith) has all of the upside. He reminds me of, in how he plays, and his makeup, Rashard Lewis. Rashard may have had a nasty streak, but he didn’t always play with it. What’s missing with Smith when I went to see him, you’d like to see a guy with an attitude, who’s that skilled, of I’m going to get it. He deferred fairly quickly, when he didn’t have to.

Western Conference executive 1: Arguably probably as good, if not the best, long-range, 3-point shooting prospects with size to come along in a while. Off the top of my head, I’m hard-pressed to come up with someone better. Really can stretch the floor and could be quite a weapon on the right team. He’s not a self-creator. Not a guy you give the ball, and the clock runs down, can get his own. Maybe that comes in time, maybe it doesn’t. But he’s still going to be a big-time player even without that.

Got better on the boards, though I wouldn’t consider him a rebounding machine. He’s growing into his body. It’s sort of a lean and supple one, that’s going to put a lot of weight and strength on. You can see that coming. Good with mobility. Not a big-time shot blocker, but he does move his feet well. Has the potential to be OK guarding out on the floor once he learns the nuances of pick-and-roll, which is a big part of the evaluation of big men these days. And that’s why so many of them fall short. I think he’ll be a harder big man than most to play off the floor during the playoffs. I look for him to be a hell of an outside shooter in the league. Can run the floor on the break. You get it to him; he can dunk in traffic. He can drive a closeout straight line; he’s just not a guy with a whole bunch of wiggle, doing a lot of creating and making a play there. He deserves serious consideration for the first-overall pick.

Going into his senior year of high school, he was a top-10 pick. They knew that. But I don’t think everybody had him where he is today. I (initially compared him with) LaMarcus Aldridge as far as a big guy who’s a jump shooter first, but Rashard (Lewis) is what I really had. But this guy, when he’s on, man, midrange, he doesn’t create his shots, but he gets off the dribble in a real fancy package. He can get, in various ways, where he needs to be with the shot. His size and length is so big, he’s almost always shooting over the top, very clear shooting vision. He’s very hard to alter that shot. He was kind of a non-rebounder at the start of the year, and he got better.

Banchero

College Assistant Coach 1 (his team played Duke): He was my favorite player in high school. I thought it was a joke he had to go to college. He does everything. Sometimes he settles too much on shooting the jumper, but he’s capable of putting it on the floor, shooting it. He’ll post you. I was in love with him when he was a sophomore at NBA camp. And now he’s all of 6-10 now. I think he’s a stud. He’ll be a longtime pro. He should have gone right out of high school. And he’s young. He’s a physical presence. And I used to get mad watching him on film, and I’m glad he didn’t take advantage of us when we played him. He can impose his size. He is not a small kid. He should dominate — all right, I’m going to the cup. And at times, I think he doesn’t realize how imposing he is. …  he’s 6-10, 235, whatever he weighs. He’s solid. I thought he settled at times. I thought that was a little more of the maturation.

He has to figure out, I’ve got the body, I can get where I want to go. He’s not overly shifty with the bounce, but he’s got enough ball skill that if he can get you on his hip or shoulder to get by you, you’re dead. You’re in jail. I think that will get better. I think people are going to be surprised at his ball skills. The game’s positionless, but he’s probably more four/three. He’ll shoot at that level, he’ll shoot more catch-and-shoot, open shots. There are different types of 3s he’ll have to take and make. He’s shooting stepback (in college), they were just different. They weren’t always just the catch-and-shoot variety. He tried (defensively). And I think he can be better at that. I don’t think he was a zero defensively. Where he can make his money at the next level is rebounding and pushing, where he can start the break, he can get it off the defensive glass and go. He’ll be really good at that. He’s good, man. I know at Duke they had to get other guys on the floor and keep everybody happy. But he absolutely could have played more on the perimeter. He don’t mind being a five sometimes. I just loved his whole demeanor — just put me out there. I’m going to play.

Western Conference executive 1: He has a deeper offensive tool kit (than the other top prospects) in that he’s not a great shooter, but he can make shots. He’s a better playmaker than the other two, for others. In the half court, he’s more of a self-creator, setting up the jumper, and particularly the drive, drive and dish. Has really great passing instincts, throws some very impressive passes. And the thing that makes it unique is, I have no idea whether he’s 6-9 or 6-10, he’s what, in the 250 range? He packs a wallop with the body. He doesn’t have to come into the NBA and build a body, just tone it up some. He’s going to come in and be able to, with strength and width, to get some things done off the move and off the dribble. In the lane, he can finish through contact, play on the break, just has a very advanced feel for the game at, what, 6-10, 250? That’s pretty good.

I thought he handled what his role was at Duke well, which was to be the top guy. Look at the success of the team. Very young team, got to the Final Four, had to play with a lot of pressure down the stretch, with the whole Mike Krzyzewski Victory Tour, farewell tour, and handled it with no hiccups. … He has enough passing talent that, if he was a smaller player, without that body, he would still have very good passing (skills). He’ll rebound his position. It’s going to be defense — not so much from a physical standpoint, but just chasing guys his size out on the perimeter, being locked in off the ball. And how good a 3-point shooter is he going to become? If he gets up to the league average, he doesn’t have to become Steph Curry. He just gets up to the league average, with his body and ability to handle and pass off the move, and finish in traffic, it opens an awful lot up.

Nestled just behind Smith and Banchero, and likely to go anywhere between No. 4 and No. 8, is Iowa’s Keegan Murray, the consensus first-team All-America selection who led the Big Ten in scoring (23.5 per game) and was third in rebounds (8.7), while leading the nation in PER (37.8) last season. There may not be a better plug-and-play guy in the top half of the draft than the 21-year-old sophomore.

Murray

College head coach (his team played Iowa): Oh my gosh, he was incredible. Watching games all year, my favorite guy was (Purdue guard Jaden) Ivey. I loved him. But I was really impressed with Murray. He sprinted the court. He had an amazing motor. And he’s way bigger than you’d suspect. He’s one of those guys that you just know is an NBA player, the way he moves. Obviously, he shoots the ball really well. The biggest thing I loved about him is some of those guys that glide around the way he does aren’t very physical. It’s more about the skills than it is the physicality. And he sprinted down the court, getting position really quickly. And you have to be willing to use your body to do that. And I thought he was excellent at it. And obviously, he’s got the skill to go along with that. … there’s an upside there. To improve as drastically as he did over the course of three years from high school is pretty incredible.

College assistant coach 2 (his team played Iowa this season): Murray’s elite. He didn’t play well in the NCAA Tournament. He played tired, a little bit soft, was always short on his shots. But he was so, so good the second half of the season and during the Big Ten Tournament. He can make 3s. He’s got great length. Golden State was at every Big Ten Tournament game — (general manager) Bob Myers, (assistant general managers) Larry Harris and Mike Dunleavy. I think they were salivating over him. He obviously won’t be there when they pick. He’s a four man that can put it on the floor, I think guard his position, very good on the boards. His shooting touch is very, very good. Great arc on his shot. The improvement he showed from his freshman year to his sophomore was one of the best in a long, long time — him and (Wisconsin guard) Johnny Davis. Neither one started. They averaged about six points a game. They were over 20 (this year).

College assistant coach 3 (his team also played Iowa): Offensively, he’s like what Shane Battier was probably coming out of college. And I say that from the standpoint that his motor runs high, he’s always moving, and I think he has the ability to score without doing a lot. Somebody passes him the ball, I’m open, I shoot it. You pass it, I shot fake, one dribble, and get to the rim. His efficiency, he would be great with, like, Golden State, because Iowa plays like that — that motion, that movement. They didn’t run a lot of plays. A lot of his stuff was read and react, and he did a tremendous job of doing that.

That superstar’s ability to take it to the next level? I don’t know if he has that yet. He don’t put it down like that. I would liken him to, where he would start, if he could ever develop some of the ballhandling and the movement that (Khris) Middleton has, I think that’s the best he would be. Because he’s efficient … he rim runs, he posts up. … my man isn’t really going to be changing direction and all that — I’m going straight line, I might spin one time. And the other thing I think he does better than like a Harrison Barnes is, he rebounds it. He’ll go rebound on a consistent basis. Not going to get you 12 one night and like six the next; he’s going to get like eight, nine, seven, in that range. That’s where I’m going to be.

Eastern Conference executive 1: Top five based on his ability to score, very efficient. I think he probably is the guy, we met with him in Chicago, and I’m sure as he goes around and works out and in interviews, people will see that he’s a good fit.

The next tier has two college freshmen: Duke’s AJ Griffin and Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan, both likely gone by the end of the lottery. (Point of professional privilege: Sochan may be my favorite guy in the draft — not just player, but guy. You do root for certain guys.) Griffin’s father, Adrian Griffin, was a longtime wing who’s become one of the NBA’s top assistant coaches and potential head coaches in the next few years. Sochan’s a self-described “man of the world” who was born in Oklahoma, where his parents played for the men’s and women’s team at Division II Panhandle State. But he grew up in England and played for his mother’s native Polish national team before emigrating to the States, where he played in high school and at Baylor.

Griffin

College Assistant Coach 4 (his team played Duke): I had the Duke scout. The first time we played Duke, AJ had not played a lot. Unless you know who he is, he’s barely on the scouting report. And I told them, ‘I’m telling you he’s played well. We have to be ready to guard him. He’s an X-factor. If he gets it going, we don’t have a shot.’ People were likely, really? And he played great against us in the first game, and everybody was like ‘yo, you were right.’

USA Basketball member: He’s quiet. He’s to himself. He enjoys being around his teammates when he is, but he’s not that partier. In Brazil, he was really quiet and to himself. And he actually got us going. We were, this was the very first year, we were following behind Coach (Don) Showalter. Coach Showalter had coached 10 years, won 10 gold medals, never lost a game. I remember the pressure that came with that. In our very first game, we are getting crushed. It’s an exhibition game. We’re literally losing like 22-5. We’re getting blown out.

Aj gets the ball off the rim and drives coast to coast and dunks on three players. It changed everything for us. We’re USA; that’s what we’re supposed to do; that’s how we’re supposed to play. And we wound up winning by 20. That play changed everything for us in terms of our mentality. I don’t know if he ever really got credit for that. In the gold medal game against Canada, we’re playing against Caleb Houstan, Shaedon Sharpe, Zeb Jackson. They had some dudes. AJ goes in the game and guards Caleb Houstan, and Caleb Houstan can’t score. AJ just says he’s not scoring. He’s blocking, he’s cutting him off trying to drive, he blocks his shot. He literally sucked all the confidence out of Caleb Houstan. And at that point, Caleb Houstan was the leading scorer in FIBA, was probably going to be MVP whether they won or not. AJ just shut that all the way down. I think he has that ability too. His level of play will meet whatever level he’s playing (against). At Duke, he raised his level to that level. In the NBA, he’ll raise his level. If he becomes a rotation guy, he’ll raise his game to that level. If he becomes a starter, he’ll raise his game to that level.

Eastern Conference executive 1: I think he can shoot the ball a little bit. I worry about his body, personally. I’ve watched him move. I look at his, his heavily wrapped up knees and all that. He doesn’t move like a quick-twitch guy. He’s got a nice body; he’s got length. The two times I saw him live this year, he never played well in the games I was at. I saw him on television, and he had a good string of games. I’m personally not ready to say he’s this can’t miss guy. Are you banking on he’s Adrian’s son, and Adrian’s pumped some good knowledge into him? And being around a good program, that can be helpful. I think it’s about fit with him. If you can get him around some other good players and athletes where he can make shots and become a defender — I don’t want to just call him 3-and-D, per se — but can he become that? I guess I could see a role in that. But personally, I don’t see a dynamic player.

Sochan

College Head Coach 1 (his team played Baylor): Played under the radar. Really, really high skill level. Can shoot and has great size for his position. Can defend multiple spots on the floor. Really understands how to cut. Rebounds it well. Not an iso-featured guy in the league, but certainly a guy you can plug and play immediately and feel like it’s going to take three or four years for this guy to develop. He’s going to help a team now. He certainly wasn’t afraid to take open 3s. But he didn’t settle for a ton of 3s. because he knew he was certainly capable of getting to the basket, and at this level, finishing against some of the size or lack thereof in the college game — not going up against real rim protectors like Clint Capela or guys that are more difficult. I think he can get there. It depends on how hard he works and how much he invests in his own game the next six months or so. He’s got some toughness. There are some outliers like Joel Embiid, but no one can guard him, right? But most of the fives in the league are perimeter guys. I think he’ll be fine against most of the more skilled perimeter fives. And he’ll get stronger. He’s a young kid. He’s got a lot of room to grow from a maturity and probably a physical standpoint. … He was a pleasure after games, very respectful. He plays hard, competes hard, wants to win.

College Assistant Coach 5 (his team also played Baylor): Sochan’s probably going to be better two years from now. So will (fellow Baylor forward Kendall) Brown. They’re very similar. Sochan’s a better jump shooter, probably a better offensive player. They’re both athletic. Brown might be more athletic. Obviously in the NBA, they go on potential, and I think both of them, two, three years down the road are going to be better players than they are now. I think both of them would be better with another year of college, because they’d both get reps. But they’re both pros. They both are good. I don’t know if they’re good enough to step up and play consistent minutes in the league now at the three spot.

Western Conference Executive 1: Tremendous defensive versatility. You can make a case for him guarding all three frontcourt positions. Switchability should be there, which is a key factor with the big guys today. To me, (he’s) more of a defense/athlete/energy/versatility guy first, more than offense right now. But the offense can come. It’ll be very 3-point shooting dependent. I don’t see him being a great self-creator, a go-to scorer at any time. But he can be a secondary scorer who’s a primary defender, with size and mobility. He’s coming from an international background. I think he’s going to end up being a lottery pick. He’s a modern player in that sense, except for the shooting versatility and size, what you’re looking for.

Jeremy Sochan works against the Kansas defense. (Chris Jones / USA Today)
First-round grades … but when and where?
The next tier of wings includes LSU sophomore Tari Eason; 19-year-old Ousmane Dieng, who played for the New Zealand Breakers in Australia’s National Basketball League this past season; Santa Clara junior Jalen Williams; 19-year-old Serbian Nikola Jović, who played for KK Mega Basket in the Adriatic League, one of the best pro leagues in the world, and who was voted the ABA’s Top Prospect this past season; Ohio State junior EJ Liddell; and 6-6 swingman MarJon Beauchamp, who was mentored early in his career by longtime NBA star guard Jamal Crawford before playing this past season for G League Ignite.

Eason

College Assistant Coach 6 (his team played LSU): High ceiling. Shooting can get better. Can score around the basket. Can make plays. Really long too. They did a lot of switching defensively, so I don’t know how well he defends. But I think he has a chance to be a good defender as well. With them, it was hard to tell, because they played like a lazy, switching defense. We just switch and try to keep you in front. It was hard to get a read on who could play defense for them and who couldn’t. He scores around that basket well. He can palm the ball and move it around. He’s got a nice midrange shot. He’s going to improve his 3. Just concentrate on his game. Handles are coming along.

College Assistant Coach 7: He picks up the ball up off the ground like it was a tennis ball. That’s what helps his finish so well out there; he’s got those huge hands. That reminds me of Kawhi Leonard a little bit, with that frame. A little taller, but that same frame, can handle the ball.

Eastern Conference Executive 2: Eason is going to be a defensive specialist early on. … Shot isn’t great, but that can be fixed in time.

Dieng

Western Conference Executive 1: Dieng did not play well early in the year. That’s probably an understatement. So you can look at him as half full or half empty. He was coming from lower-level France to the Australian League … It’s a man’s league. The team that won it this year, Sydney, R.C. Buford’s son (Chase) coached. The roster is littered with guys who’ve had NBA associations, American players that are three, four years out of college. So he’s adjusting to living real far away from home, New Zealand, and a huge jump in class. And his team wasn’t very good. So all that’s going on. His overall numbers are not impressive, but if you look at the last 10 games or so, 11 games in snippets, he did some real good things. He’s big. He’s got a good feel for the game. He’s got mobility. He can handle the ball. The shooting numbers aren’t all that impressive, but he’ll go on some tears in games. He’s all finesse right now, lacks physicality. He’s going to have to transform his body. But for a big guy, there’s a handle, a feel, and when you see him at his best, can score.

Williams

College Head Coach 2 (his team played Santa Clara): Really good at the pick-and-roll. Able to work the lead lob play if you step up on him. If you go under, he can step up and make the shot. We had to change the way we played screen/roll two or three times in the game, he was so effective at it. High basketball IQ. When he came in as a freshman, he would always guard the other team’s best perimeter player. And that really impressed me.

Jović

Western Conference Executive 2: He’s OK. In most drafts, he’s a late first. Maybe he sneaks into the late first, but this year’s class lacks high-end talent to begin with.

Eastern Conference Executive 2: Jović could evolve only (into) a nice role player.

Western Conference Executive 1: Young kids from the Balkans, they get in that Adriatic League, they get a lot of playing time. As you would expect for a European big man, he’s skilled. Not a great shooter now, but he’s good, and he’ll get better. He’s got passing skill. He’s got good feet and overall mobility. Another guy (where) strength and the defensive end will be a challenge early on. But you’ve got size, feel and someone who should end up being a pretty good shooter. So I think that takes him — this is a broad range — he goes in the first 20 picks somewhere. I’d be surprised to see him get to the second round.

Liddell

College Assistant Coach 3 (his team played Ohio State): EJ’s a dog. He can be like the P.J. Tucker, that Draymond Green type. He’s only 6-5, 6-6. He’s built like a tank, like a linebacker. Those calves and legs are like tree trunks. He’s a man. And every year, I can say he’s gotten better. He’s added something to his game every single year, even now to the point where he can defend on the perimeter. He’s an interior guy, a five man. In a perfect world, people don’t realize that Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler were five men in college. If you can make spot-up 3s and just go and rebound and be nasty guarding people, that’s how he’s got to try and make it and stick long term. If you want to be a superstar in a role, when I compare him to those guys, that’s like the superstar role for them, if they can fill it.

Beauchamp

Western Conference Executive 3: Straight wing. We have him in the early 20s, with the Kendall Browns, Peyton Watsons.

G League Coach (his team played Ignite): Early in the year, he was the guy that their staff was highest about. Great work ethic. Probably the best athlete (on the team) Certainly has the length and the dimensions to be a really good defender. As the year went on … you started to see a little, the word ‘quit’ might be hard, but in horse racing terms, he spit the bit a little bit. He didn’t want to compete. Which surprised me. In talking to (the Ignite staff) earlier, they were like, this guy’s got the goods. He’s athletic, has the length, gets in the gym earlier than everybody else, works his butt off. But at the end of the year, he pulled up a little bit. He didn’t show the toughness and the grit that they saw (earlier). … I lean toward the idea that, physically, he just got worn out. Because it’s a long year for these guys, coming from high school into a professional setting. Even though they play somewhat of an abbreviated schedule, it’s still a grind. You’re playing against men for the first time in your life.

He bounced around from Yakima, junior college, bounced around a little in high school. I think someone will take a chance on him in the 20s. The fact that he’s so raw, people will look at him say ‘let’s take a chance on him.’ Because you get to that point in the draft, and there’s nobody that’s an immediate plug and play guy, you may go ‘hey, let’s take this kid, he’s got potential.’ And a nice kid by all reports. (The rebounds) show me there’s a level of toughness there.

MarJon Beauchamp elevates for a layup against the Stockton Kings. (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)
Late first, early second? Depends
It only takes one team to love you, and the next tier of wing prospects will need one to be chosen late first round. Most could go early in the second round too. They include Baylor’s freshman Kendall Brown, who’s raw but has significant upside; Kansas junior Christian Braun; Michigan’s Caleb Houstan, a five-star recruit from Canada entering the draft after one season in Ann Arbor; Wisconsin-Milwaukee freshman Patrick Baldwin Jr.; Wake Forest junior Jake LaRavia; and UCLA freshman Peyton Watson.

Brown

College Head Coach 1 (his team played Baylor): Not as skilled (as Sochan), but he’s like a much better athlete. He’s like a freak. I would imagine his testing numbers are in the higher end of all the picks that are available. Doesn’t have a defined skill. He’s a good kid. He was in the USA trials last summer as well with Jabari (Smith). Thought he has a chance immediately to impact a game defensively. He can switch, he’s strong. But offensively, I wonder where he fits right now. He gives me a feel of like a Zhaire Smith. Picked high (16th in 2018). He does some stuff. Can jump and touch damn near the top of the square. But how does it translate into an actual game, offensively? You know who was like him coming out of college? Zach LaVine. I don’t know if he’s that, but he’s not far away athletically. Zach’s learned how to play, and that’s the reason it’s worked out a little better in Chicago. But (Brown’s) athleticism jumps off the page.

Houstan

Western Conference Executive 3: His size, his offensive skill set and his ability to shoot, even though he didn’t shoot it great at Michigan this year, he has in the past at many other events. So, he has that to hang his hat on. … I saw Caleb at USAB events. There’s no reason why he could not (shoot better on 3s in the NBA). He has size, and he knows how to play. I don’t think he’s going to get worse, because he’s going to be playing with and around better players to get him even better shots.

Braun

College Head Coach 1 (his team played Kansas): The thing about him you appreciate is that every year he’s gotten incrementally better, made significant progress in his game. And he’s really, really competitive. More athletic than people probably give him credit for. We always worried about him just as much as Ochai (Agbaji, Kansas’ star guard), because we knew our guys would be locked on trying to stop Ochai, but maybe not as in tune to Christian. And he was more than capable. He can shoot it. Really good size for his position. He’s smart. He understands how to accept a role on a team. I think he’s going to have a chance to have a good career here, because he’s got some of those intangible things that really translate.

They play a lot of DHO (dribble handoff) offense in general, and he was a big, big part of it, more so than in his first two years, because so much attention was given to Ochai. Credit to Ochai. He embraced that, allowing his good friend and teammate to shine. A lot of DHOs, they played in transition incredibly well. That’s probably the best thing they did. They played with pace offensively, which gave them an opportunity to have some easier looks before the defense got set. He’s not an isolation player at all, but he’s a guy that can come off of screens, make good reads. He’s got a pretty good feel of when to get off of it and space the floor. He wasn’t a guy who we said ‘man, you’ve got to be careful when he’s guarding you.’ But, he certainly was capable (defensively), and that’s where his competitiveness kicked in. He understood his limitations, and he played within those. He didn’t gamble a lot. He wasn’t a guy who was trying to pressure guys all over the floor. He played good, positional defense. He’s a capable defender because he’s got good athleticism. He’s an intelligent kid who really understands who he is and plays to his strengths.

Baldwin Jr.

College Assistant Coach 8 (his team played Wisconsin-Milwaukee): He’s a capable shooter, but his feet have to be set. Coming off a ball screen, as far as offensively, he is active without the ball. He’s a smart player. You can tell he’s a coach’s kid. He knows when to cut and not to cut. You turn your head, he’ll go backdoor. He doesn’t get to the rim going left at all; he’s pulling up if he’s going left. If he’s going right, he can get to the rim. If he goes left, he’s trying to get to a one-dribble pullup. He’s 6-9, so he can shoot over the top of guys that are guarding him. He’s like a get-to-his-spot type of guy. Off ball screens, he’s not bad. He’ll come off of ball screens and turn them into post-ups. Coming off, he’ll get a switch and just turn his back and post up. He’s actually pretty good at that, which I think translates to the next level. … He doesn’t shoot it well, which I think is really, really going to hurt him. He’s going to have to become a more consistent, just spot-up shooter in general. I don’t think he’s a 3-and-D at all. Those guys are valuable, and I think that’s probably what he’s going to have to be at some point, and I don’t think he is yet. He has to get bigger and stronger, but he is young. They have him listed at 220; there’s no way. I think he’s probably closer to 205, 210, unless he’s put weight on since the season. He’s not thin, but he doesn’t resemble those NBA guys. His biggest thing is he’s a smart player.

Defensively, we were going to attack him. We didn’t think he was great laterally. They played some zone, played some man, they did some different things. And part of it was, I think, he wasn’t interested in being there that much. They weren’t very good. He was playing for his dad. He was susceptible to quicker guys, so we were going to put him in some pick-and-roll situations. He will rebound. He’s a capable and willing rebounder. I think it’s because he’s trying to rebound and push the ball up the floor. He’s one of those guys where it’s like, if I can get the ball off a rebound, I can go. He’s not a shot blocker. I do think he has the ability to guard guys that are bigger than him, because he’s strong and he’s wiry. My worry about him at the next level would be guarding pick and rolls. If he switches onto wings, I don’t think he can do it. … He’s not like a tremendous lateral athlete to me. … he’s going to have to prove he can guard.

LaRavia

College Assistant Coach 1 (his team played Wake Forest): Some people like him more than me. I like him. I’m not in love with him. But he’s a confident, hard-playing, can shoot the ball wing. … He’s got some stuff to him. He’s got a little shit to him. He’s confident in who he is. We tried to get him out of Indiana State, and he kind of big-timed us, was like, no, I’m gonna go somewhere where I can get off. But he’s good. I don’t see him as a first-round guy. He’s confident without the cockiness, if that makes sense, which I think you have to be to make it to that level. And you’ve got to have damn near a little bit arrogance. You’ve got to be borderline, people can’t stand you.

Watson

Western Conference Executive 3: Long as the day, and athletic as heck. He looks the part and then some. … When Peyton had the opportunity to play, he had those ‘aha!’ moments. And you’re like, you see that in an NBA game. … his ability to play four positions, his ability to defend four positions. He looks like a gazelle when he runs the floor, and when he finishes, his armpit is above the rim. And he’s 19 years old. And there were moments, and they weren’t all the time, when he made a move or shot a 3 or made a move and pulled up or he got all the way to the rim, and his waist was at everybody’s head. And you’re like, what will this kid look like after he puts on 15 to 20 pounds of muscle? His athleticism isn’t going to get any worse. That’s an NBA wing. And in some cases, if those guys really take off, they’re starters.

Longtime NBA Executive: Watson has the potential to develop into a solid player. Framework and physical gifts are there along with talent level. The long-term upside is there but his actual game impacts were limited.

Best of the Rest
One-liners (or more) on several second-round possibilities, including NC State’s Dereon Seabron; Colorado State’s David Roddy; Ignite’s Michael Foster; Marquette’s Justin Lewis; Memphis’ Josh Minott and Connecticut’s Tyrese Martin.

Seabron

College Assistant Coach 1 (his team played NC State): He can’t shoot. He cannot shoot a gun. But I love him. He can get downhill, I’m talking open floor, transition. I think he’s really good pushing the pace, getting downhill, attacking the rim, can finish either hand. He just can’t shoot. I don’t think the jumper’s broken. But he doesn’t take many and he’s not confident in it. Part of that is he can get wherever he wants to on the floor, and he doesn’t have to settle for the jumper. But at the next level, he’ll have to take and make some open ones. But he’s really good with the ball in his hands. … He’s probably more point guard at that size, ’cause he’s good in pick-and-rolls. He’s not a shooting guard, ’cause he just doesn’t shoot it. I think he’s more, surprisingly, like a big point guard.

Roddy

College Head Coach 3 (his team played Colorado State): I actually love him. I didn’t love playing against him. … I just thought he had a good way about him. He’s got a tremendous body, first off. He’s got really good size, he’s got really good strength, he’s got really good feet. His feet are excellent. He can shoot the ball. He’s a confident shooter. He can demand a double, and at our level, on the block — if you wait until the block (to body him), it’s too late. He’s going to overpower you and score. You get outside that area, and he can make skilled plays to get shots off.

He was big in important moments throughout the season. When they needed a basket or need someone to make a really big play, he was right there and not afraid to do it. And defensively, sometimes these kind of guys, they don’t do it at the other end. I felt like he was committed on the defensive end to really try to guard and impact the game at that end as well. I feel like he’ll get drafted. You never know who else is out there. … A Grant Williams-type player. A similar kind of player. Has a big body but is more bouncy than you would expect. Can shoot it. And Grant had to work his way into that. Roddy seems to have a pretty natural J. I certainly think he can play at that level. Will he be a star? I don’t know about that.

They would screen him to his spot to get a catch. They run good offense — you know, five out type of offense. Pick-and-pops, he’s good at. It wasn’t like they just force-fed him. They had other players; they were a pretty well-balanced team. So the other guys made him better too. They would screen to get him the ball at certain spots, whether it’s that middle of the court, the elbows, or whether it’s the mid-post area. We did not want him shooting 3s. That was one of our things. You’re going to have to dribble to shoot. We started switching, which was pretty effective. … To me, he’s going to be P.J. Tucker, Grant Williams, he’s got to be that kind of guy — they’re going to space the court, but they can also put it down a little bit. But they’re not going to be the main guy doing that. Which I think will be good for him. I think he’ll fit that well.

David Roddy works in the paint against Utah State. (Rob Gray / USA Today)
Foster

Eastern Conference Executive 3: He rebounds, and he plays hard. He probably shot it a little too much last year, but he was trying to show people that he could shoot.

G League Coach (his team played Ignite): Undersized five. I wasn’t sure if he was good enough, the way the game is now. He’s going to have to become a better facilitator. What he did best in our game won’t translate as much in the NBA game. He wasn’t afraid. But he doesn’t shoot the ball well from 3, and he’s just an old-school five. The best thing he’s got going for him is he’s tough as hell. He’s not going to back down from physical confrontation. And he’s young.

Lewis

College Assistant Coach 9 (his team played Marquette): Absolute nightmare for us. … He was a nightmare. He was. He kicked our ass every time we played him. He’s tough, he’s 6-7. And this year, he improved his perimeter game. His freshman year he was mostly playing inside. Then he expanded his game, he started making 3s, he can go off the bounce, he’s explosive. He’s got long arms. I don’t know anything about his DNA, work ethic, what kind of kid is he? I don’t know any of that. But as a player, he’s a pretty talented kid. In today’s game, watching the NBA, yeah, he’s pretty good. Like him a lot. He was physical (defensively), he moved his feet. They played him at the four, so it’s not like he was guarding athletic wing guys or anything like that. But he tried. He competes.

Minott

College Head Coach 4 (his team played Memphis): Unique. Unique. Was a baby. … This kid was really active. For me, he didn’t really pass the eye in terms of high energy and motor, but he got stuff done. He was just long, he was athletic. He was relentless getting to the glass. He’s a good player. If he stayed in college another year, really hit the weights, really lock in on getting better. He’s a clear top-10 pick (in 2023). He passed the look of a prototypical NBA player now — everybody’s just long. I thought their most talented guys didn’t touch the ball enough, him being one. He didn’t start because they had older guys. … I can’t say he did one particular thing well. I can’t say he shot it well. I can’t say he was a force, being able to go get his shot. But he did it for them when they needed it. He got a key rebound. He got a key shot. He got a key block. He’s going to have to identify what his role is if he plans on being in the NBA for a long time. … for me, right now, I think he’s more of an energy guy, more of a defensive presence, like a (Mikal) Bridges. He doesn’t shoot it as well, but they’re comfortable with putting him on the top offensive players, with his length. I think if (Minott) can carve out a role like that, his offense will catch up with him later on.

Martin

College Assistant Coach 9 (his team played UConn): Legitimate wing player. Strong. Doesn’t shoot it great from 3. He’ll make a couple — enough to keep you occupied. But he’s strong, though, he’s explosive. Reminds me a little bit of like Josh Hart. But I think he rebounds really good for his position. Not overly skilled with the ball; more of a straight-line guy. We played off of him a little bit, arm’s length, because he’s going to bring it to you. But he’s really physical, really finishes around the rim. But I didn’t think he had the perimeter skills to be a no-brainer at the next level. But he’s tough. He can defend. He’s a really good college player.

 

[Fud 9559]

 

[Message Board User 12396]

4 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Eason

College Assistant Coach 6 (his team played LSU): High ceiling. Shooting can get better. Can score around the basket. Can make plays. Really long too. They did a lot of switching defensively, so I don’t know how well he defends. But I think he has a chance to be a good defender as well. With them, it was hard to tell, because they played like a lazy, switching defense. We just switch and try to keep you in front. It was hard to get a read on who could play defense for them and who couldn’t. He scores around that basket well. He can palm the ball and move it around. He’s got a nice midrange shot. He’s going to improve his 3. Just concentrate on his game. Handles are coming along.

College Assistant Coach 7: He picks up the ball up off the ground like it was a tennis ball. That’s what helps his finish so well out there; he’s got those huge hands. That reminds me of Kawhi Leonard a little bit, with that frame. A little taller, but that same frame, can handle the ball.

Eastern Conference Executive 2: Eason is going to be a defensive specialist early on. … Shot isn’t great, but that can be fixed in time.

My guy for the last two months.

I swear I think my head will explode if the Cavs pass on Eason to take Ochai Agbaji.

[Fud 9559]

Vecenie/Pennie mock draft including the trade

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2022-nba-mock-draft-the-game-theory-boys-break-down/id1054081827?i=1000566608845

[Fud 9559]

Anyone got this?

 

[BigOrange1 6476]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

Anyone got this?

 

it's a lot:

 

 

Spoiler

Tier 1: The two biggest fish in a medium-size pond

 1. Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 freshman | PF | Auburn

Smith is an unusual player for a top overall pick because he didn’t always dominate games athletically. He had unusually low rates of rebounds, blocks and steals for a prospect of this caliber and shot just 43.9 percent on 2s in SEC games. (Reminder: I often rely on stats in conference games because they winnow out the early-season joke games against St. Leo’s and Incarnate Word.)

So what’s the case for Smith? Let’s start with his jumper, which is just smooth as butter. Smith might have the best shooting form of any prospect I’ve evaluated since Michael Porter Jr. launching perfect parabolas toward the rim and having the footwork to get into this stroke during live play. At a legit 6-10, Smith can rise over anybody and launch, providing something of an offensive cheat code that should set up the rest of his game as he develops.

Meanwhile, his athletic gifts are also pretty significant. Some of his defensive clips had me cackling, yelling, “Noooooo don’t do it!” at my monitor while some rando college guard decided to try his luck isoing Smith off the dribble.

Smith can slide his feet like a guard, plus his length allows him to play a half step farther off dribblers and cut off any driving angles. He sometimes gives a little too much cushion and will need to play closer in the pros, but his switchability at the pro level seems rock solid. He also rarely gets faked off his feet, a bugaboo for a lot of bigs who otherwise can hold up on switches. Quick, hard changes of direction occasionally leave him a step behind, but he also has the “catch-up” ability to get back in the play and block shots from behind.

With his body still filling out, Smith has a low post defense that’s maybe not quite as clinical. Opponents could duck in and get position, especially when Walker Kessler was off the floor and Smith had to play the five, and he didn’t contest their shots as aggressively as you might hope. Adding some muscle obviously will help here, but I’d be leery of playing him much at the five in the NBA until he adds more lower body strength.

Finally, there’s the age issue. With a May 2003 birthdate, Smith is six months younger than Banchero and a full year younger than Holmgren. He’s physically young too, as he’s still pretty clearly growing into his body. In a draft without a surefire future All-Star, he seems the one most likely to earn that honor.

2. Paolo Banchero | 6-10 freshman | PF | Duke

Prospect-wise, Banchero isn’t perfect. He’s not an elite athlete or a great defender, his arms are a bit short for a big, and his shooting stroke could stand to be more consistent (33.8 percent from 3 and 72.9 percent from the line). He’s a bit on the older side for a one-and-done, and his rates of steals and blocks are pretty sad for a lottery prospect.

OK, now that I’m done whining … Banchero is also an attacking, off-the-dribble shot creator at 6-10, and he’s not some shot-hunting pig either. He averaged an eye-opening 6.3 assists per 100 possessions last season, often acting as a de facto point guard for a Duke team that didn’t have a true lead guard. It’s pretty easy to envision a world in which he’s his team’s best or second-best offensive option, particularly if his line-drive outside shot gets a little more air under it and a bit more consistency.

Defensively, Banchero’s lack of length gives him issues contesting shots and protecting the rim, which might limit his utility as a small-ball five. Otherwise, I thought his tape was pretty good. His clips in isolation defense show a guy who is comfortable sliding his feet out on the perimeter, and he didn’t default to giving yards of space and allowing easy pull-up 3s the way some bigs do. In his best moments, he could play close enough to remove any pull-ups at all, like this:

Banchero seems to change direction pretty well, but in straight-line speed challenges he is vulnerable; little fast guys give him problems, but he can defend anyone two through four on the perimeter pretty capably.

Overall, he’s a fairly safe bet as a high-production four, one with plus offense and who can get to the point of being solid defensively.

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Tier II: High ceilings, but more speculative

3. Jaden Ivey | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Purdue

Ivey is the one player in this draft who is most reminiscent of Ja Morant, with a blast-off first step that sends him rocketing toward the rim. It should be even more effective in the open space of the NBA versus a Purdue approach that was heavily geared toward entering the ball to its two behemoth post players.

Alas, the Morant comparisons break down once we get into the decision-making realm. Ivey barely averaged more assists than turnovers in Big Ten play; his good clips are ridiculous, but there is a lot of head-scratching chaff to work through before you get to that wheat. His shooting is also a question mark, with a below-the-shoulder set shot similar to Morant’s that yielded 32.2 percent from 3 and 73.98 percent from the line in his two years with the Boilermakers. Put simply, Ivey is going to be an offensive skill-development challenge for whatever team picks him, but the upside reward is an All-Star-caliber shot creator from the guard spot.

Defensively it’s a similar story. The physical toolset is there, but the application of those tools is a bit inconsistent. Ivey can get caught upright and blown by at times but doesn’t concede space and can still stay with dribblers. Opponents rarely went at him in isolation, perhaps because of the giant dude waiting in the paint behind him, but also because it didn’t look profitable the few times opponents tried. Ivey can slide his feet and explodes off the floor to challenge shots, sometimes surprising shooters who thought they had themselves a nice pull-up.

He needs the defensive output to be more consistent, especially if he’s juggling a prominent offensive role at the same time. The tape from his freshman year is actually even better, perhaps because less was being asked of him at the other end.

Overall, this is an eye-test call. Ivey’s college track record is wartier than you’d prefer for a pick this high, especially from a sophomore, but nobody else in this draft is in Ivey’s league as an off-the-dribble creative force.

 4. Chet Holmgren | 7-1 freshman | C | Gonzaga

A lot of the concerns about Holmgren have to deal with his frame. At 7-1 and just 195 pounds, will he be more prone to injuries? Will he hold up to the pounding of a routine NBA game multiplied by 82? The visual is hard to ignore — he looks like somebody might break him in half — but I’m wondering if these worries are missing the real issue. Career-length issues for bigs are usually driven by lower extremity injuries; the fact that Holmgren’s light build puts less strain on his knees and ankles could end up being a major positive for his long-term durability.

The real thing to wonder about with Holmgren is whether drafting a 7-1 center in the top five makes any sense unless he’s basically guaranteed to play in the All-Star Game. Holmgren definitely has some huge positives — few bigs have shown as much juice off the dribble at a young age, his 3-point shot is already reliable enough to be a passable long-range floor spacer (39.0 percent from 3 as a freshman), and he finishes everything around the basket (73.7 percent on 2s).

Holmgren also controls the paint like few others, with an absurd 12.6 percent block rate and 28.7 percent defensive rebound rate. NBA teams still are skittish about playing zone, but Holmgren could be an awesome zone defender.

Three issues prevent him from ranking higher here. First, the skinny body really limits his ability to have any kind of post game. There is virtually no cost to switching a guard on him. He can shoot and handle a bit, but offensively, he’s trending toward Myles Turner.

Second, nobody talks about this, but Holmgren is a year older than most freshmen, with a May 2002 birthdate. For comparison, the next player on my board, Bennedict Mathurin, has played two years at Arizona but is a month younger than Holmgren.

Lastly, the defensive tape is perhaps not quite as awesome as the stats might make you believe, particularly in switch situations. The Synergy stats say he performed well against isolations, but several of those plays featured missed bunnies at the rim, and the sample is small enough that it matters. Holmgren typically gave up a driving lane to one side and then relied on his length to contest at the summit, but often didn’t get there in time.

Occasionally, it went worse than that, particularly against pro-caliber guards. Here Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams (an underrated prospect!) just flat-out drops him:

Holmgren held up much better when bigs tried to take him off the dribble in closer quarters; there just isn’t enough room to get away from his arms. Opponents will see his body and think they can mash him in the paint, but that is likely to be a horrible mistake that ends badly. His tentacles swallow up everything in the paint, and he could very well lead the league in blocks every year.

Because of that, and the talent gradient we’re about to hit, this is probably the best slot for Holmgren. I’m not a huge fan of drafting centers, as you can tell, but the risk-reward equation turns more positive after the first three names are off the board.

Tier III: Reliably solid wings

5. Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Arizona

One can argue it’s a reach to take Mathurin at No. 5, since it’s unlikely he’ll ever be the best player on his team. But because of his positional value and skill set, even his mid-tier scenarios make him a $20 million player in today’s NBA. Few players have more obvious 3-and-D utility than Mathurin, an athletic 6-6 Canadian of Haitian extraction who came through the NBA’s development academy in Mexico City. He’s still evolving into his game, but in two years at Arizona, he shot 38.7 percent from 3 and 78.9 percent from the line.

Mathurin still needs to tighten his handle and improve his feel, factors that could limit him from moving beyond a 3-and-D role at the next level, but his size and plus athleticism give him outs even if he never turns into a ballhandling wizard. Additionally, he doubled his assist rate as a sophomore at Arizona, showing visible progress as an on-ball creator.

Defensively, Mathurin might be more “solid” than true stopper. He’ll get into the ball but is not quite as fluid laterally as you might hope. He also can sit up in his stance at times, permitting blow-bys. More often, he’s able to stay solid and use his size and length to contest late, but he’s rarely an active disruptor on that end.

 6. Shaedon Sharpe | 6-6 freshman | SG/SF | Kentucky

Teams have a lot of questions about Sharpe, questions that aren’t going to get answered by seeing him work out against a chair in Chicago at the combine. Why didn’t he play at all for Kentucky this year? How much did that set him back?

While teams comb through background parts and go back through his EYBL tape, the inevitably of the upside scenarios is what’s likely to see him chosen high. He could fail spectacularly, but the bar for this player archetype is pretty low as far as eventual success goes. Sharpe is 6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan and can really shoot; watching him work out on the floor before Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament game, I found it pretty clear he’ll be a viable NBA floor spacer from Day 1.

He’s also athletic enough that he was ranked as the top prospect in the Class of 2023 before reclassifying. How many guys like that, who also had elite shooting ability, have failed? Yes, there are questions about his feel and other, secondary lines of inquiry given that nobody has seen him play top-drawer competition. If he were a center or point guard, I’d have him several places lower. But a 6-6 wing who can shoot? Even if he “fails” in terms of achieving stardom, that still becomes a decent value proposition.

7. Keegan Murray | 6-8 sophomore | SF/PF | Iowa

Murray is probably the most head-scratching player in this draft. On the one hand, he’s a 6-8 forward who put up video-game stats in the Big Ten. Don’t overthink this, right? But on the other hand, he was a much older player (turning 22 in August, he’s the second-oldest player on my list today), and his tape isn’t quite as alluring as his stats. Murray is neither a high-wire athlete nor a knockdown shooter. He’s fine and all — 37.3 percent from 3 and 74.9 percent from the line in two years at Iowa — but it’s his all-around wiles as a scorer that provide his real value.

It’s fair to question how much daylight that part of his game will receive at the NBA level, because he doesn’t create easy separation and isn’t a great distributor.

Defensively, it’s more of the same. His size and length help him get hands on balls, but he’s not some elite stopper out there. He offers some secondary rim protection but didn’t always show great awareness, and his team’s defense was consistently its undoing. Murray has long arms and can slide his feet on the ball, so he should hold up decently enough against wings and fours.

What I get back to is that we’ve seen this movie before with guys like T.J. Warren and Cedric Ceballos — smooth forwards who lacked top-drawer athleticism but had crazy feel for scoring and finding buckets in the flow of the game. The league undervalues guys like this sometimes because they don’t have an easy box to slide into, but I’m pretty confident Murray can be a rotation forward at worst, and the upside is a 20-point scorer.

Tier IV: Let’s get crazy

Here’s where I suspect my draft board deviates pretty radically from the consensus. Partly, this is because the late lottery this year appears a bit soft in terms of surefire NBA talent, and partly, this is because I value certain things more than others. The one accelerated the other: If the talent curve is relatively flat, stylistic preferences inevitably matter more.

With that said, fasten your seat belts…

 8. Jeremy Sochan | 6-9 freshman | PF | Baylor

A Polish citizen who grew up mostly in England, Sochan offers an alluring combination of present value and long-term upside as a high-energy forward with some shot-creation possibilities. Although he’s 6-9, Sochan can handle the ball and get to the cup with long strides and loosey-goosey quickness. He can make some decent reads as a passer, and he shot 60.7 percent inside the arc in Big 12 games. His shooting is more speculation but wasn’t as bad as the percentages make it seem (29.6 percent from 3, 58.9 percent from the line). His form needs work, but it’s not broken.

Sochan is better east and west than vertically; he’s quick, but he doesn’t pop off the floor. Relative to a player like Banchero, he offers more potential switchability and could even do work as a small-ball five as his body fills out. His tape against guards is very good, playing close enough that they can’t just walk into pull-ups, even contested ones, while still mostly holding his own when they tested his speed. Sochan leaves his feet too willingly and good crossovers sometimes leave him wobbly. He also had problems when dribblers got into his body, something that likely will become less problematic with more strength and experience.

Overall, we’re in a different area now in terms of risk-reward proposition. It’s possible Sochan is never anything more than an energy backup, but his upside scenarios are so tempting that he’s worth grabbing once my top seven names are off the board.

9. Dyson Daniels | 6-6 | SG | G League Elite

We’re getting into a type here in the late lottery: Guys with poor left-tail outcomes because of their shooting, but enough on the right tail to make them worth pursuing regardless. Daniels isn’t a freak athlete, shot 52.5 percent from the line and 27.3 percent from 3 in the G League and needs an hour and a half to uncork his outside shot.

I’m a big fan anyway. Few players I saw this year were more obviously about the right things than Daniels; even as his teammates with Elite did whatever the hell it was they were doing, he was very consciously trying to play the right way, hit the open man and compete on defense. He guarded every opponent’s best player and was good at it, with size, competitiveness and anticipation for steals. He has a point guard’s handle and is a plus passer. While he isn’t an above-the-rim athlete, he’s able to finish in transition and draw fouls in the lane.

An Australian who is the same age as this year’s one-and-dones, Daniels came away with a statistical projection from his G League season that should be pretty positive: He averaged nearly two assists for every turnover, shot 54.9 percent inside the arc, had an 11.0 percent rebound rate from the guard spot and had high rates of steals and blocks. Some scouts I talked to compare him to Memphis’ Kyle Anderson in terms of an iffy shooter who can impact the game despite not being an elite athlete, but Daniels has more high-end outcomes than that because there is still time for his shot to come around.

10. Josh Minott | 6-8 freshman | SF/PF | Memphis

Jalen Duren and, to a lesser extent, Emoni Bates got a lot of the attention on Memphis this year, while Minott saw his role fluctuate wildly, and he was hardly playing by the end of the year. Minott is also a bad shooter (2 of 14 on 3s in 2021-22) and will be 19 1/2 on draft day, making him a bit old for a freshman.

And yet … the analytics on Minott are really impressive, with a sky-high steal rate of a big forward (3.6 per 100 possessions in AAC play), a positive assist-turnover rate and a 14.4 percent rebound rate despite often paying next to a lottery center. History says it would be folly to ignore a player who passes this deftly and gets his hand on this many balls at the defensive end. Even the shooting has some promise — he hit 75.4 percent from the line. It’s not like he was an empty offensive force either, scoring a very respectable 25.3 points per 100 possessions. He didn’t play much, but when he did, he was quite effective.

Defensively, Minott can be tight-hipped and slow with his first slide, and a bit over-reliant on using his hands to compensate for it. He also picks up a lot of fouls that way, part of his insane foul rate (6.2 per 100 possessions).

That said, Minott probably plays closer to the dribbler of any other player I saw in this size class, which is notable — players tell on themselves by how much cushion they give the dribbler. Minott has tremendous hands and long arms and legs; he uses the former to flick the ball from unsuspecting dribblers, and the latter to make up ground if he’s initially beat. Minott goes for the ball a bit too often, a high-risk strategy that can leave an open downhill run if it fails, and because he’s thin and has a high center of gravity, he can pick up fouls when opponents get into his body or spin off him.

11. Blake Wesley | 6-5 freshman | SG | Notre Dame

This is purely an upside play — there’s a chance Wesley ends up being terrible if his shooting and finishing don’t progress. It’s still worth taking Wesley here because his first-step quickness and lateral mobility provide a framework for some elite two-way outcomes … if he can just figure out how to shoot and make a layup. In this draft class, only Ivey can surpass Wesley’s explosiveness getting downhill to the rim, something that should be a much greater weapon at the NBA level.

Wesley’s offensive stats from his one season are a tad underwhelming. While he scored in volume (29.8 points per 100 possessions), he shot 47.1 percent from the arc, 30.3 percent on 3s and 65.7 percent from the line and barely had more assists than turnovers. Yikes. He’ll benefit from the more open space of the NBA floor, but there’s a lot to clean up here.

Where I feel better about Wesley is on the defensive end. He can move his feet laterally, contest shots and had an impressive steal rate (2.8 thefts per 100 possessions). You’d like to see him get into the ball a little bit more on the perimeter and concede fewer pull-ups, but he’s long and bouncy enough to bother players when they rise up. Bizarrely, he only blocked two shots all season — another sign he may be leaving some money on the table at that end.

As a result, I see two outs for success here: first as a downhill shot creator and second as a wing defensive stopper. Hit on both, and you’ve really got something. I initially had Wesley ranked lower but comparing his best-case scenarios with the less intriguing upside scenarios that follow, I had to move him up the list even if there’s a decent chance he bombs because of his offense.

---

Tier V: Relatively safer and less spectacular

 12. Jalen Duren | 6-11 freshman | C | Memphis

How much do you value having a decent center with some upside? I like Duren quite a bit but struggled with where to place him on my board because he’s a one-position player at the least valuable position, and chances are he’ll never stretch his game out to the 3-point line.

I’m extremely confident Duren can be a rotation center for a decade; how far beyond that he can get is a very open question. Is there enough rim running and shot blocking to be a legit starter? You wouldn’t trade a lottery pick for a backup five, so the answer to this has to at least be a “maybe” to rank him here.

Nonetheless, Duren packs some real positives. He was an impactful college player even as a young freshman, he has a 7-5 wingspan and a solid enough frame to be a plus defender and rim-runner, and he made some notably good passes for a player of this ilk. He disappointed a bit as a rim protector, however; 3.9 blocks per 100 in the American Conference is fine but not exactly Holmgren territory, and he doesn’t explode off the floor on shot challenges the way you might like from an interior presence.

Memphis also switched him a lot and was clearly very comfortable with him defending on the perimeter, even against very small guards. I’d describe his feet as more “good” than “great;” he can be a little slow at times and at others had to give up excessive cushion to feel like he could keep in front. The biggest barrier for him is just that the bar for “switchable big” in the NBA is getting so darned high, especially as we get deeper into the postseason. He’s good enough to get there though.

13. A.J. Griffin | 6-6 freshman | SG | Duke

Griffin is 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan and shot 44.7 percent from 3 on relatively high volume last year, which will be the press release summary from the team that picks him. That might have you thinking “3-and-D!” But let’s stop the presses on the D part.

Griffin’s defensive tape is … not good. He may have to play four, even at 6-6, because he has decent strength but his feet are stuck in concrete. He is very slow sliding his feet and reacting to an opponent’s first move and had absolutely no chance checking quick guards.

Going through his tape, I found it one thing to see ACC Player of the Year Alondes Williams cook him on a straight-line drive; when a random dude from Army did the same thing, that’s when the red flags really started flapping in the wind. Griffin’s indicator stats aren’t great either, with a pathetic steal rate for a wing (just 1.1 per 100 possessions in ACC play).

Offensively, he didn’t impress when he put it on the floor, but the threat of his shot does open lanes for him pretty easily and widen his margin for error. Also, did I mention his shooting? Griffin has a low release point but moves to get himself open and can knock down catch-and-shoots from a variety of platforms. I don’t see him being a guy who can come flying off screens locked-and-loaded, but he’s an elite catch-and-shoot threat from Day 1. That gives him value even if he struggles at the other end, and at just 19, there’s at least a shred of hope he can keep improving the defense.

14. TyTy Washington |6-3 freshman | PG | Kentucky

There’s an upside scenario that you have to think about with Washington, which is that John Calipari has a history of making guards look very ordinary, only to see them blow up when they get to the NBA. Devin Booker, Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey all come to mind. Is Washington another?

Maybe. He had a really good stretch in midseason before suffering an ankle injury against Florida, showing the ability to run the offense at 6-3, get to floaters and make the right decisions. There was nothing electrifying about it, and his push shot from the perimeter (35.0 percent from 3, 75.0 percent from the line) isn’t wowing anybody either, but he was low-key pretty darn efficient.

Defensively, Washington had a high steal rate and has the awareness to do some neat, subtle things; he’ll tilt his torso and arms diagonally while coming around screens to take away pocket passes, for instance. He’s not a suffocating defender overall, and for some reason seems to move much better to his left than to his right. Maybe it’s random, but he gave up a lot of blow-bys on that side.

All this probably adds more up to a solid third guard than anything special, especially since Washington was unusually old for a freshman and turns 21 in November. (He’s nearly the same age as Duke junior Wendell Moore, for example.)

15. Kendall Brown | 6-8 freshman | SF | Baylor

Brown may not provide enough offensively to be a starting-caliber player, but his odds of having a legit career seem pretty high because he’s 6-8, can pass and run and guard multiple positions. Guys like that fit in somewhere unless they’re complete disasters from the perimeter. In a league where 6-8 forwards who don’t suck become central pieces of the playoff rotation, he will have value.

Brown certainly gives some concern on offense. He shot 34.3 percent from 3 on extremely low volume and 67.3 percent from the line in his one season at Baylor — but his other indicator stats are halfway decent. He shot 63.8 percent inside the arc, scored at a respectable clip and showed halfway decent feel — his mistakes were often trying passes that were just beyond his level, but his feel didn’t seem deficient. In transition, he was good.

Defensively, Brown doesn’t have super long arms but his height and leaping allow him to get great contests on pull-up jump shooters, plus he seems to have pretty good intuition for exactly how much room to give while still being in position to bother the shot. He had a good steal rate with anticipation off the ball, but against dribblers, he isn’t a guy who impacts the ball much; he tries more to stay solid and keep the ball in front, and does a good job of it. Fast guards with enough runway could beat him with straight-line speed, but you’ll live with that from a combo forward.

Finally, Brown is only 19 with a prototype body for an NBA forward, so we shouldn’t dismiss upside scenarios out of hand here. I feel like he’s getting a bit forgotten because he’s no longer a “hot” name, but it’s not crazy to think he could go in the late lottery.

 16. Tari Eason | 6-7 sophomore | SF | LSU

I have a sneaking suspicion that Eason’s wildness is going to work against him and cause him to slip in the draft; teams may have trouble sticking a fork into a defined role for him. Eason is a big wing with a solid frame who can guard anything from one to four, a disruptive defender whose rates of “stocks” are almost Matisse Thybulle-esque (4.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 100 in SEC play, nearly matching what Thybulle did in the Pac 12 at the same age).

Wait, there’s more. He’s also an absurdly good rebounder for his size (15.7 rebound rate in the SEC!) and scored easily and efficiently last season. He shot 56.4 percent inside the arc with a massive free-throw rate, made 80.3 percent from the line and even hit 35.9 percent from 3 despite a funky-looking slingshot release that teams aren’t totally sure will translate to the pros. Did I mention he averaged 39.4 points per 100 possessions and had a 34.5 PER in the SEC?

So why is he down here and not in the top five? Because it’s not clear what he did — basically, putting his head down and burrowing to the rim regardless of the situation — has any utility at the next level. Eason isn’t passing — he had two turnovers for every assist, not to mention about 15 true shot attempts — and a lot of his best moments came in transition. If you don’t believe in the shooting, he may not have a role in a half-court offense; given that the previous season at Cincinnati he shot 24.1 percent from 3 and 57.4 percent from the line, this is a realistic fear.

Defensively, he is really good laterally, definitely in the top tier in this draft class. Even small guards had all kinds of trouble turning the corner against him. He has a tendency to rise up out of his stance at times, which can leave him vulnerable to a good hesi move.

However, the same pattern of overaggression bordering on recklessness that marked his offense also was his undoing on defense. Eason committed a whopping 7.7 fouls per 100 possessions in SEC play and had a particularly bad habit of crash-landing into 3-point shooters while challenging shots.

Finally, Eason is a bit older than some of the other players on this list, which is why I put guys like Brown and Griffin ahead of him.

At this point in the draft though, I think his athleticism has to win out. Eason is clearly an NBA athlete and fits a size profile that is constantly sought throughout the league. If he even gets to the 25th percentile as a half-court offensive player, his transition, rebounding and defense will make him a valuable performer.

17. E.J. Liddell | 6-7 junior | PF | Ohio State

I’m a bit higher on Liddell than most, just because I can’t help thinking that he’s so darn smart that he’s going to figure this out one way or another. Watching him defend against guards is a good example; even though he’s at a speed disadvantage, he plays just close enough to stop them from walking into pull-up jumpers and forces them to dribble into his help.

For instance, here’s Wisconsin Johnny Davis trying to get a pull-up on him:

That IQ translates to other facets, such as his timing for off-ball shot blocks that made him an elite college rim protector despite being 6-7; his 35-inch standing vertical at the combine helps explain why. Seemingly every time I watch an Ohio State game, I see Liddell do some random, clever thing that you don’t normally see from college players.

Liddell added the 3-ball to his repertoire this season, knocking down 37.4 percent on decent volume, and has become a very good pull-up shooter. Despite lacking a deceptive handle, he drew a ton of fouls; his strength obviously helps here and should acquit him well against fours and fives at the NBA level.

Overall, you’d like him to be quicker laterally, especially with his first defensive slide, where now he can look stuck in concrete at times, and you question how much of his offensive game translates to the next level. Nonetheless, I’m buying him as a 3-and-D combo forward who can be effective in a variety of lineups.

18. Dalen Terry | 6-7 sophomore | SF | Arizona

Here’s a name you maybe weren’t expecting. Terry is still on the fence about whether to stay in the draft, but I have him rated as a first-rounder if he stays because of his ability to handle the ball, defend multiple positions and … hopefully … shoot? Terry’s stroke isn’t overtly terrible — he made 35.0 percent from 3 on low volume and 68.0 percent from the line across his two seasons at Arizona — but he’ll need to be a more persistent perimeter threat as a pro.

The good news is tall wings who can handle the ball and defend almost always find themselves in an NBA rotation, even if they aren’t high-wire athletes or electrifying scorers. Terry operated as Arizona’s de facto point guard this year, handing out nearly three assists for every turnover, while on the defensive end he ripped 2.5 steals per 100 possessions. One would have liked to see him play a more prominent and aggressive scoring role; between Mathurin (above) and Arizona’s two quality big men, at times one could forget Terry was on the floor.

The tape shows a defender who is more “good” than “remarkable.” Some of his best stuff came against smaller players, where he could give a bit more cushion with his length but still had the quickness to keep the play in front of him. Against bigger players, he gave the same cushion but couldn’t affect the shot as well, and he shuns physicality a bit because of his skinny frame.

19. Mark Williams | 7-0 sophomore | C | Duke

In a word, thwack! Williams’ 7-7 wingspan makes him the top rim-protection prospect in this draft; Auburn’s Walker Kessler blocked more shots but also got cooked a lot more often, whereas Williams never got out over his skis hunting blocks and forced opponents to play over the top of him.

Those who dared to challenge him at the summit suffered unfortunate outcomes. Kevin McCullar, meet Mark Williams:

Of course, the big question with Williams is what can he do on the offensive end. His 72.7 percent mark from the line offers some optimism that he can make 15-footers consistently, but he rarely posted up and wasn’t a big part of elbow or high post actions.

The biggest reason to be down on Williams, again, is just his position. Even if you feel pretty good about him carving out a 10-year career as a backup center, that’s not enough value to take him in the top 20. His shot blocking, physical tools and short-range shooting touch offer realistic upside as a starter, however, and that would be the selling point for sliding him into my top 20 here.

20. Jake LaRavia | 6-9 junior | PF | Wake Forest

I originally had LaRavia in my “sleepers” section, but so many people have moved him up their draft boards lately that I feel like I’m not even ahead of the average on him anymore.

LaRavia is a relatively young junior, an unknown who transferred from Indiana State before the season and then blew up for the Demon Deacons. While his teammate Williams won ACC Player of the Year, I’m more encouraged by the pro prospects of LaRavia.

Defensively, in particular, he shows multi-positional potential. He has size and strength but also had the feet to comfortably stay with guards. His strong lower body and good balance help him pester dribblers without overcommitting or getting pushed off stride. He rarely fouls but has active hands that swiped 2.7 steals per 100 possessions and is able to challenge shots without flying into shooters. Few players I saw on tape were more adept at forcing dribblers to beat them with contested 2s. There may be some quickness limitations that show against NBA athletes, but in the ACC, they switched him against everybody and he aced the test.

LaRavia’s shooting will be another topic of discussion, as he hit 38.4 percent this season but on very low volume. Career marks of 37.1 percent from 3 and 74.3 percent from the line should ease some concerns here. LaRavia checks out in other respects, as he’s a good passer and hit 61.6 percent of his shots inside the arc. Nitpickers will also note he’s not a great rebounder.

Tier VI: My three sleeper shooting guards

21. Ryan Rollins | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Toledo

In a sea of blah shooting guard prospects after Ivey and Wesley, Rollins is the one at whom I’d take the first crack. He won’t turn 20 until July and was the best player in the Mid-American Conference, and his weaknesses (3-point shooting, on-ball defense) are the type of things that seem fixable in a development program. With high rates of steals and rebounds, nearly two dimes for every turnover and a 53.6 percent mark inside the arc, he checks a lot of boxes in categories that correlate with pro success.

I originally had him much higher than this, but his defensive tape was a crushing disappointment. As I noted above, players tell on themselves by how far off the ballhandler they play; the more comfortable they are with their own lateral quickness, the closer they guard the ball. (As a human traffic cone back in the day, I perhaps internalized this lesson more than most.)

Rollins concedes acres of space, frequently allowing no-dribble 3s from the triple threat position, and yet had a lot of trouble beating his man to the spot and cutting off penetration. If this was happening in the MAC, one shudders to think what NBA guards might do to him one-on-one. Rollins’ athletic indicators and plus feel make one think this is fixable, but there’s a chance he’s just so flammable on defense that he can’t stay on the court.

22. Wendell Moore | 6-5 junior | SG | Duke

Moore kind of got lost as scouts focused on Banchero and Williams at Duke, and he played a more limited role on a talented offensive squad. However, he had a good junior year and won’t turn 21 until September, and his ability to pass, defend, make open shots and score in the open court all make him a strong candidate to become a plus role player as a pro.

Moore could likely stand to improve his finishing and overall scoring package inside the 3-point line, but his rates of rebounds, assists and steals all are among the best of any shooting guard prospect this year, and those indicators usually point toward pro success more than scoring averages. Additionally, he shot 41.3 percent from 3 and 81.5 percent from the line and usually guarded the opponent’s best player. The 3-and-D archetype is pretty clearly there, and in a fairly athletic package that might be able to go up another notch with some conditioning gains.

He has enough length and leaping ability to alter shots when he goes up to contest them, and when he did get beat off the dribble, he had a good chase-down gear to block opponents from behind. He can get a little upright, and it looked like he was trying a bit too hard to avoid fouling; changes of direction also sometimes sent him veering into a ditch. It seems he’s more likely to get picked in the second round, but he has starter upside to go with a pretty high floor.

23. Jalen Williams | 6-6 junior | SG | Santa Clara

Scouts I talked to have pretty openly admitted Williams was underscouted during the season, a classic Bad Geography Guy in the far-flung West Coast Conference. Even if scouts happened to be in the Bay Area, chances are they weren’t driving the extra hour to Santa Clara when so much other scoutable action was at hand. Now that teams are doing their film work, he’s a guy everyone is doubling back to watch.

Williams was one of the best players in a vastly improved WCC this season, a huge, solidly built point guard at 6-6 who is likely to play the wing at the next level. Williams offers a plus secondary ballhandler who can run the offense in a pinch, and if you buy his shooting development (39.6 percent from 3 this year and 80.9 percent from the line), that’s a very helpful weakside offensive player.

Defensively, Williams would likely benefit from a move to the wing. He has size and mostly opted to stay solid against opposing point guards, but he wasn’t capable of pressuring smaller players into mistakes and mostly opted for low-risk containment strategies. He can be a little stiff, and even WCC guards weren’t afraid of taking him on; he might do better sizing up rather than down, as he seemed more comfortable getting into the body of bigger players closer to the rim.

Williams also isn’t a great athlete, so teams would be buying more on size, skill and feel. But as noted above, he had the moves to fake top prospects like Holmgren out of their shoes and is rapidly losing his “sleeper” status as the league does its homework on him.

Tier VII: The upside plays

24. Ousmane Dieng | 6-8 | SF | New Zealand Breakers

That “6-8” is an estimate and might be on the low side, since Dieng didn’t do measurements at the combine.

There is a lot of reason to be skeptical about Dieng. Historically, players who have struggled in Australia have, not shockingly, also struggled in the NBA. Probably the closest comp would be R.J. Hampton, who was picked in the 20s two years ago after a blah season in Australia and has yet to establish himself as a rotation-caliber player in the pros. Hampton’s season was actually quite a bit better than Dieng’s, though. The argument can be made that Dieng is not very athletic, not much of a shooter and doesn’t have notably good feel … so, um, what exactly is he?

The retort is that he’s a big long wing with a guard’s handle, one who can possibly become another Nic Batum or more … even if he often looks more like another Isaac Bonga. Dieng can use his combo of handle and length pretty effectively and got more adventurous with it as his season went on Down Under. While he was disastrously bad for much of the year, his splits over the final month tell a tale of solid improvement.

Dieng is also one of the youngest players in the draft at 19. While I wouldn’t select him over any of my top 23 players, at this point in the draft, hitting on a giant wing who can dribble seems significantly more valuable than the return anywhere else.

25. Malaki Branham | 6-4 freshman | SG | Ohio State

The draft world tends to over-index on bucket-getting when the more telling information for NBA purposes is in every other column of the stat sheet. Branham fares poorly in almost all of those areas, which is why it’s tough to put him in my top 20.

That said … he can score, and that may translate enough to offset his other weaknesses. Branham scored 30.8 points per 100 possessions in Big Ten games as a freshman, and did it efficiently (62.8 true shooting percentage). He displayed a believable jump shot (41.3 percent from 3 on low-ish volume, 83.3 percent from the line and heaps of pull-ups) and the size and length to hit shots over defenders.

He’ll need to score because Branham’s defensive clips are … not great. While his size and length package should theoretically make him a defensive obstacle, his slides were notably slow and opposing dribblers had a pretty easy time turning the corner against him. He also wasn’t a disruptive or anticipatory defender, with a pretty shockingly low steal rate for a first-round guard prospect.

Nonetheless, a guard with his size and shooting ability has relatively abundant pathways to becoming somewhat useful, and there’s at least some upside here that he blasts off as a scorer. I think the odds on that package are overrated at the moment, but I’d rate Branham as a better prospect than, say, Cam Thomas a year ago, and think he’s a worthy gamble in the 20s.

26. Kennedy Chandler | 6-0 freshman | PG | Tennessee

It’s weird to label a 6-0 guard an “upside play,” but the echo chamber on Chandler that he’s just a backup point guard kind of glides past an important question: What if he’s not? Chandler is small, and that will be a problem at the next level, but unlike some other small guards of recent vintage, his defense is an undeniable strength. He’s a handsy defender who pilfered an eye-opening 4.1 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games, and he surprises shooters with his ability to leap and contest shots.

Weirdly, his biggest weakness on defense might just be his lateral movement. He makes an effort to get into the ball and makes sure to force dribblers to beat him into the paint rather than rising up over him for a jumper .. but the first slide is beatable, and because he has to crowd dribblers, they can get a step on him surprisingly often.

Offensively, Chandler’s stroke doesn’t look broken but he still needs to shoot the ball better (60.6 percent from the line — yuck), and he had moments as a shot creator where he had trouble getting separation. Nonetheless, he’s a good passer, plays well in transition and seems likely to benefit from playing in the NBA’s more open floor. That he was one of the best players in the SEC as a 19-year-old is a pretty strong data point in his favor, as was his stellar steal rate (often a great indicator stat for college to pro success).

27. Justin Lewis | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Marquette

Lewis can be frustrating at times: A little too chilled out on defense, a little too jump-shot dependent on offense. I just can’t see how I could rank him any lower than this. He’s 6-6 with an enormous 7-2 wingspan, has a strong frame that should allow him to play four in almost any matchup if his team wants to size down, and he had a 32.5-inch standing vertical.

The basketball stuff went OK too. Lewis shot decently and on relatively high volume, and is very comfortable shooting off the dribble against smaller defenders. He rebounds well and can be a very good defender when in a stance and engaged.

The big thing that puts him at the tail end of my first-round grades, however, is that every team needs switchable forwards who can make an open shot. Lewis doesn’t even need to get that much better to fill in a back-end rotation spot, and he has upside to be quite a bit better.

28. Julian Champagnie | 6-6 junior | SF | St. John’s

Here’s one you probably weren’t expecting. Champagnie isn’t getting much first-round buzz, but I think he’s a name teams need to consider outside the lottery. Champagnie has a bit of a thin frame and can become a little too enamored of jab-step jump shots, something he converts at a respectable rate (34.8 percent from 3 for his career) but maybe that shouldn’t be the focal point of his game. He played a bit as a volume scorer for a weak St. John’s team, but that won’t be his role as a pro.

Instead, Champagnie profiles as a 3-and-D guy who can provide some juice as a secondary rim protector and disruptor. On the ball he likes to get into dribblers, even smaller ones, and used his length and anticipation to nab 3.1 steals per 100 possessions. That was slightly juiced by St. John’s use of pressing defenses, yes, but he’ll pressure the ball even against smaller players and is capable of blocking his own man’s shot. Sometimes that gets him beat — good crossovers leave him grasping for air — but I think he’ll be able to stay with NBA wings.

Tier VIII: Soooo many shooting guards

29. Johnny Davis | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Wisconsin

 

(Benny Sieu / USA Today)

The high-lottery hype for Davis earlier in the year seemed excessive. He was arguably the best player in the Big Ten this year and still fairly young, but beyond that, there are legit questions about how what he does translates to the next level. An excessive reliance on tough shot making and pull-up 2s reveal some refinements that will be helpful at the next level … and a worry about the lack of easy baskets and the iffy jump shot. Davis shot 30.6 percent from 3 and 79.1 percent from the line this season, and the eye test on his jumper is that it starts breaking down the farther from the basket he gets, especially when he has to shoot off the catch.

Davis earns kudos defensively because he competes, fights through screens, rebounds at a high rate and can jump. I’m worried about his feet, though, and that’s the most important piece. He was able to bail himself out at times by using his leaping ability to get challenges on shots where he was beaten to the spot, but he was a step slow laterally. The tape showed plays where even non-prospects were able to turn the corner against him, and he told on himself a bit with the amount of cushion he needed to give to offset his feet.

Overall, he’s still probably the best bet in a sea of blah shooting guards at this point in the draft, with decent odds of becoming a rotation-caliber player and some starter upside if all his midrange stuff translates. But apparently, I have a much harder time getting excited about him than my peers.

30. Trevor Keels | 6-3 freshman | SG | Duke

Keels is built like a tank, had a reasonably good freshman year that included a high steal rate, and his biggest weakness (shooting) is the one thing that is most fixable at the NBA level. He made 31.2 percent from 3 and 69.3 percent from the line, but I wouldn’t say his shot is broken. However, he isn’t a natural distributor either; his assist-turnover ratio from his freshman season reflects that he spent some time at the point, but once he heads to the cup he’s thinking shot. Keels also isn’t a great leaper, relying a little too much on beastball around the basket, and one wonders how that will translate as a pro.

Keels is getting some love for his defense in other descriptions I’ve seen, and I’ve gotta say … I must have been out of town for those games. Keels has a strong body, but I’m not sure he can stay in front of anyone at the next level. He didn’t really get into the ball but still gave up a ton of straight-line drives and wasn’t great at contesting shots at the end of the play either.

That said, let’s not get lost in the weeds here. He doesn’t turn 19 until August and turned in a very solid season as a starter in the ACC. He has a chance, especially if the shooting improves. Also, the Ethan Strauss Memorial Fat Is Potential In Disguise (FIPID) factor comes into play here, as Keels measured with 13.5 percent body fat at the combine.

31. Christian Braun | 6-6 junior | SG | Kansas

Kansas won the national title and Ochai Abgaji was its star, but of the team’s draftable wings I actually like Braun a bit better. He’s not the shooter or scorer Agbaji is, but is bigger and younger, and pops off the floor athletically. Kansas played a conservative defensive scheme so he wasn’t heating up the ball a lot, but he’s very good at challenging shots and even blocking jump shots. At 6-6, he could slot up to the three at times.

Braun can’t rank higher because his shot isn’t completely trustworthy, a low-released push that could use more air under it. He shot 38.6 percent from 3 this past season but on low volume; he’s not letting it rip unless it’s an open catch-and-shoot. He also isn’t the most instinctive or polished finishers around the basket. He’s better in transition, where he can use his athleticism more easily, and he passes willingly. Between all that, he has a decent chance of becoming a rotation-caliber wing with enough size to play some three.

32. Dereon Seabron | 6-5 sophomore | SG | NC State

I think everyone is sleeping on this guy a bit. There are reasons to doubt him: He only measured 6-5, he shot 25.4 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the line in two college seasons, he’s just OK as a passer, and he blocked four shots all of last season.

With all that said … the ability to get to the rim on your own steam in the halfcourt is a pretty important skill, and Seabron has it. His college tape is him getting to the cup with either hand and using long strides to finish at the rim, over and over and over again, and he did the same thing at the combine. His team will need to trust putting the ball in his hands because he’s not spacing the floor, but he can be a plus creator if he develops any kind of shot at all.

Seabron’s defensive tape is pretty good too. He has good size but still will get up on guards, and he rudely dispossesses weaker players. NC State felt confident enough to leave him on an island against Purdue‘s Jaden Ivey, which was probably a stretch; Seabron can be beaten laterally and needs to take better angles, but was a plus one-on-one defender in college who should be fine at that end as a pro.

33. Gabriele Procida | 6-6 | SG | Fortitudo Bologno

In an international field where nearly every alleged prospect for this draft spent the year trashing his draft stock with underwhelming performances in third-tier leagues, Procida stands out as the exception.

We can still nit-pick some things: The Italian League isn’t very good anymore, he wasn’t the best player on the team, etc. But Procida did put up solid numbers as a 20-year-old in a real pro league, and he’s a 6-6 wing with some athleticism (backed up by solid combine testing numbers) and consecutive seasons of shooting 38 percent from 3 under his belt. It’s not hard to see his pathway to NBA viability.

Procida will need to shoot the 3 better and more frequently to make the cut as an NBA sniper, but he’s not that far away and he can be an overseas stash for years if need be, making his selection a promising idea for such teams as the Grizzlies, Thunder and Spurs that are awash in extra draft picks and have some in the 20-35 range.

34. Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 senior | SG | Kansas

The defining case of this year’s shooting guard crop: A really, really good college player who doesn’t offer a lot of excitement for how his game might translate up. At the most basic level, he’s a 6-5 guard who can shoot 3s and won’t beat himself, so getting to back-end-rotation-caliber usefulness wouldn’t be shocking. Anything beyond that would be gravy; there’s just not a lot in his profile that hints at that caliber of player.

In particular, the “indicator” stats of rebounds, assists and steals are all worryingly low for a guard, especially a senior. Despite a 6-10 wingspan, it was hard to find evidence of its use on the floor.

Agbaji can shoot, hitting 40.7 percent of his 3s in 2021-22 on high volume, but don’t get carried away: He’s also a 71.4 percent career foul shooter. As a creator off the dribble, I don’t see much, although he was able to get to pull-ups fairly effectively.

On defense, it’s a similar story. He’s not impactfully as far as getting hands on balls or flying out at shooters on shot contests, and he’s not capable of true ball pressure. However, he’s a good feet-slider who works hard to keep dribblers in front of him and plays angles and scouting reports; it was notable in the tape that he’d crowd some players much tighter than others based on their ability.

Overall, he’s a classic “won’t kill us” guy. But I’m not sure there’s much upside either.

Tier IX: The weirdos

35. Nikola Jović | 6-10 | PF| Mega Basket

It seems like everyone might have gotten out over their skis here. Jović is a 19-year-old forward with perimeter skills and big man size at 6-10, all of which paints an alluring package. He just started shooting 3s this year and made 31.5 percent of them, plus 71.8 percent from the line. Not Steph Curry, exactly, but a nice building point.

The problem is that he played in a not-particularly-great league and … wasn’t good. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player who posted stats this underwhelming in the Adriatic League who became anything of note. Other players from this league who became significant pros (Dario Sarić, Jusuf Nurkić, Nikola Jokić, Bogdan Bogdanović, etc.) were among the better players in this league pretty much immediately, and the NBA of the early 2010s was at a higher level than it is right now.

That doesn’t necessarily exclude Jović from success — players progress at different rates and sometimes they emerge from unexpected corners — but it does make betting on it a much iffier proposition.

36. Kenneth Lofton Jr. | 6-6 junior | PF | Louisiana Tech

The FIPID All-Star of this draft (see Trevor Keels above), Lofton measured at 280 pounds and 15.2 percent body fat at the combine … and people who’d seen him all year remarked on how much better his body looked.

Yes, he has a bit of work to do on that front. But even carrying around the extra tires, Lofton can play. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp and carried that over into a good game at the combine before shutting it down. In particular, he showed perimeter skill in those games that he didn’t get to display at Tech, where he played almost exclusively inside and only made four 3-pointers all year. He was beating defenders with long strides out of jab-and-go moves, making passes off the bounce and showed a soft touch in the paint.

I can’t rank him higher than this due to concerns about his defense. Lofton had decent rates of steals and blocks but is going to need to get in better shape to have a chance at guarding anyone along the perimeter. Nonetheless, I think he’s a great dart throw in the second round.

Lofton, incidentally, is not related to the former baseball star of the same name.

37. Walker Kessler | 7-0 sophomore | C | Auburn

Kessler is a legit 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan, and he blocked everything in sight. A 19.1 percent block rate in the SEC? And 10.0 blocks per 100 possessions? Are you kidding me? Kessler can get to shots with his left or right hand, and sometimes got them with two hands. He wasn’t as comfortable defending in space but he was still pretty good and Auburn was clearly okay with him switching — the dribbler needs to clear a ton of space to get out of his flight path, but Kessler doesn’t change directions fluidly so sometimes he got cooked.

The more vexing part is finding an offense role for him. I don’t see a major threat as a rim runner, but that’s probably his best role; he also dabbled in 3-point shooting but only made 10 of his 50 attempts. Between that and the fact that he plays the least valuable position, it’s hard to get too excited about him in the top part of the board. But he is a freaky shot blocker, and that’s worth something.

38. Ziga Samar | 6-4 | SG/PG | Fuenlabrada

Ziga Samar and Huge Besson are the same age and (roughly) the same size. Samar played in the best domestic league outside the NBA (the Spanish ACB) and put together a pretty strong season, while Besson played in the Australian NBL (not nearly as strong) and was barely adequate. Somehow, Besson got first-round draft hype and an invite to the combine, while Samar was largely ignored.

Samar did keep his name in the draft, however, and hopefully teams have followed up with homework after the fact. It’s possible his shooting numbers this year are an outlier (47.1 percent from 3 this year on 51 attempts, after poor results in previous seasons), that his athletic limitations are too much for the NBA level, or that his rampant fouling torpedoes things (he averaged more than one every seven minutes this past season, which is pretty wild for a guard).

That said, it seems a little batty that a guy with a 7.1 Pure Point Rating in Spain would just get completely ignored like this. At worst, he’s one of the best stash options in the draft.

39. John Butler | 7-0 freshman | SF | Florida State

Are you feeling lucky? He’s 7 feet tall, 18 years old and he shot 39.3 percent from 3. He also made 11 free-throw attempts the entire season and is invisible when he turns sideways. Butler weighed in at an impossible-seeming 174 pounds at the combine, and surely filling him out will be part of any team’s project in taking him on.

Make no mistake, he is a project, but his 3-point shooting offers some pathways to having on-court viability while teams wait. Butler isn’t super athletic, and his motor and feel are both average at best, so there is a lot that has to happen here, but the end game of a 7-foot small forward may be too alluring to pass up in the 30s.

40. David Roddy | 6-5 junior | PF | Colorado State

Grant Williams and P.J. Tucker were the best things that ever happened to Roddy, giving teams a vision of how they might use his rare 255-pound frame and nearly 7-foot wingspan.

Like those two players, Roddy is strong, with thick legs and a wide chest, and knows how to use his frame. He can be a bit slow laterally but will use his strength to cut off angles without fouling; he’s not going to reach or hand check. Although short, Roddy is pretty good at exploding up to challenge shots and will surprise some guys. His lack of height becomes more problematic closer to the rim, where opposing post players could shoot over him with impunity.

Offensively, I’m a believer in Roddy’s catch-and-shoot game (he shot 43.8 percent from 3 this year on low volume, but having watched him warm up before Colorado State’s NCAA Tournament game, I can assure you it wasn’t a fluke). However, he doesn’t bring a lot else to the table right now, and that was on display during his struggles at the combine.

41. MarJon Beauchamp | 6-5 | PF | G League Ignite

Beauchamp has been the recipient of much first-round chatter, which I think is going a bit overboard for what projects to be an energy guy. Beauchamp shot 27.3 percent from 3 and 71.8 percent from the line while mostly playing as an undersized four and was also the same age as most of the sophomores in this draft. It’s not like he destroyed the G League either, registering a 14.7 PER in 24 games.

Beauchamp has a 7-foot wingspan that he can use to stronger effect defensively and on the glass, and that’s why he may be able to get away with playing four in the pros. More skill development could eventually allow him to play three, which is where he would add the most value if he can pull it off.

Tier X: Disappointing one-and-dones

42. JD Davison | 6-3 freshman | PG | Alabama

I get why teams may be down on Davison — he was a hot mess this past year, shooting erratically and not really running the team the way you’d like. That said, the difference between his athleticism and the other available options at this point in the draft is pretty jarring, with a 9.8 percent rebound rate from the point guard spot and multiple instances of easy levitation around the rim.

Davison is also capable of making some incisive passes and running a team; he just tries to do all kinds of crazy stuff on top of it, and the result was a sky-high turnover rate (6.1 per 100 possessions in SEC games).

Davison’s shooting is another question mark. He made 30.8 percent from distance while pushing a line-drive shot from in front of his chest that didn’t always come off his hand clean. He’s going to need a lot of work to make opponents respect his perimeter game, but if he becomes even remotely average, he’ll blow by defenders and open up the rest of his game.

43. Jean Montero | 6-3 | PG | Overtime Elite

We’re at the point in the draft where buying a mystery meat tilts from a negative to a positive, which takes us to Montero. He wowed me when I saw him at the Basketball Without Borders in 2020, which would turn out to be one of the last times I’d see actual basket players in person for quite a while. Since then he’s stalled out a bit, playing this season for Overtime Elite with mostly younger players and not dominating to the extent you’d think.

Montero had a solid Hoop Summit game, but was injured early in the draft combine on-court potion and therefore couldn’t raise his stock there. Measuring 6-1 without shoes, he has to play point guard, and has refined his instincts to play more as a passer and less of a scorer. However, concerns remain about his ability to defend and to finish in traffic, and for a guy with a rep as a shooter, he didn’t shoot all that well this year.

Overall, it’s possible the draft world turned too negative on him, considering he was perceived as a top-20 pick a year ago. He’s a pretty good athlete, he tore up the Spanish second division as a 17-year-old in 2020-21, and he won’t turn 19 until a week after the draft. He’s a good second-round flier.

44. Caleb Houstan | 6-8 freshman | SF | Michigan

Houstan is the more tolerable version of Patrick Baldwin (see below) in some respects, a theoretical big wing shooter who played better basketball than Baldwin this past season but perhaps offered fewer hints of upside.

While Houstan wasn’t actively lighting things on fire the way Baldwin did, he failed to make an impression as a shooter (35.5 percent from 3, 78.3 percent from the line), rebounded like a guard and shot 44.4 percent on 2s in Big Ten games. There were some nights when he was just completely invisible, such as his zero-point, zero-assist, “just cardio” night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

That said, the pieces here are probably worth taking a shot on late in the draft. Houstan is big and his shot isn’t broken. He has just enough perimeter skill to talk yourself into him developing more and becoming a real weapon with his pull-up game. He’s not a plus defender but he’s not toast either; he can stay solid, fight through screens and use his size.

Houstan declined an invite to the combine, so we don’t know his real height and length measurements, but his listed height of 6-8 is believable. That combine refusal also created buzz that he has a promise from some team.

45. Bryce McGowens | 6-5 freshman | SG | Nebraska

McGowens is a tough eval because he played on a horrid Nebraska team where he had to be the main shot creator as a freshman in the Big Ten. He also didn’t help himself with how he played, seemingly in love with floaters despite infrequently converting them, and barely registering at all on defense. I don’t trust his shot eye-test-wise, and he made only 27.4 percent from 3. Finally, he’s dangerously thin and will need to fill out physically.

That said, there’s a toolset here. McGowens can handle the ball and get to the cup, skills that should be better advantaged in an NBA setting, and he drew a ton of fouls. He also hit 83.1 percent from the line, a positive harbinger that he can work out the last few kinks in his low-release delivery.

Overall, the chance for wing shot-creation and half-decent shooting overrides some of the other worries (could you maybe try getting a stop? Once?) at this point in the draft, especially given McGowens’ relative youth.

46. Peyton Watson | 6-7 freshman | SF | UCLA

Watson has an NBA body but has yet to combine it with NBA skill, which is why he struggled to get on the floor for UCLA in his freshman season. He only played 405 minutes and didn’t make much of a case for getting more, posting an 11.2 PER on 39.4 percent true shooting. Watson has to both fix his outside shot and refine his finishing and decision-making in the paint.

The signs are more encouraging on the other side of the ball, where he averaged 5.6 “stocks” per 100 possessions and was a plus rebounder, but he will need to cut back on the fouling (7.6 per 100). The search for big wings who can defend multiple positions is ever-present in the NBA, and that’s why somebody is very likely to roll the dice in the second round on developing Watson.

47. Max Christie | 6-4 freshman | SG | Michigan State

Christie looks the part as a long-armed wing (6-9 wingspan) who moves well and has a nice shooting motion, but the results have yet to catch up to the eye test. Christie’s selling point is as a 3-and-D wing, but the defensive tape isn’t that great. He looks mobile at first glance, but he rarely disrupts the ball, gives too much cushion and still gets beaten by straight-line speed relatively often.

Offensively, he had a limited role, but his play in that role completely justified the decision not to play through him more. Even while being able to cherry-pick what shots he took, Christie made only 31.7 percent of his 3s and 42.9 percent inside the arc. He also had a shockingly poor steal rate (0.9 per 100 possessions in Big Ten games) for an allegedly athletic guard.

The “athletic” part seems very real, though, and Christie’s combine measurements could help his case. He jumped 32.0 inches from a standstill, ripped off a 3.07 sprint, and his plus wingspan helped offset a disappointing height measurement (6-4¼ without shoes).

48. Patrick Baldwin | 6-9 | SF | Wisconsin-Milwaukee

A tall wing with some perimeter skill who teases with talent in between bouts of sleepwalking, Baldwin comes from a proud draft lineage that includes Austin Daye and Kevin Knox. I don’t really see what the excitement is here, but I’m fascinated to see which team will take the plunge. The idea of Baldwin — a big wing with a 7-1 wingspan and deep shooting range — is alluring, but the reality on the court last year was borderline disastrous.

Even in a poor conference, Baldwin was a below-average player, and in ways that don’t augur well for an NBA translation. Athleticism? Heh. He had the worst standing vertical and worst sprint time of any non-center at the combine, and the worst max vertical of anyone there.

The reason to draft him is a belief that his shooting can come around. Baldwin launched 64 3s in his 11 college games but only made 26.6 percent of them; there is a belief based on his AAU play that he’s capable of much better than this. If so, there could be a stretch four hiding in there somewhere.

49. Jaden Hardy | 6-4 | SG | G League Ignite

Hardy is still being talked about as a first-round pick, apparently, even though he was one of the worst players in the G League a year ago. He played 21 games and posted an 8.5 PER and was a traffic cone on defense.

Hardy’s shot is a definite plus, a tight flick off the shoulder that he gets into relatively easily off the dribble, and he has a pretty strong frame. However, that’s where the positives end. His shot selection bordered on disastrous, he’s not an elite athlete and rarely got all the way to the basket, and he pretty clearly isn’t a point guard. He also didn’t do the measurements portion of the combine, and I’m wondering if he’s shorter than his listed 6-4.

Is there something to grab on to here with the youth, the shooting and the frame? Perhaps it’s worth the bite of the apple by this point in the draft, which is why I’ve listed him here, but I’m having a hard time getting excited.

Tier XI: Some more bigs

50. Ismael Kamagate |6-11 | C | Paris Basketball

A classic rim-running five who can block shots and finish in the lane and will never, ever be asked to make a jump shot, Kamagate put together a solid season in a B-minus league as a 21-year-old, including blocking over 6 percent of opponent shots for a second straight season.

He’s slightly built and doesn’t really rebound like a five, plus his instincts as a roller are pretty questionable if he has to do anything besides dunk. Historically, European bigs who became anything in the pros have usually crushed a league like this by their age-21 season; Kamagate didn’t meet that bar. Meanwhile, French leagues historically aren’t great places for player development, either, which puts a dent in his stashability. That said, he has a size-bounciness package that should get his foot in the NBA door, so he’s worth a late-second-round lottery ticket.

51. Christian Koloko | 6-11 junior | C | Arizona

A massive 7-5 wingspan will get you noticed, especially given the improvement Koloko made this season. He had a 10.3 percent block rate and showed enough feel as a distributor to make you not completely hate him as a potential elbow operator. Koloko also made 73.5 percent of his free throws; there is at least a shred of shooting touch to build on. All this probably adds up to a third center with backup upside. That’s not a sexy return on a draft pick any higher than this point, but Koloko certainly is good enough to warrant selection.

52. Jaylin Williams | 6-9 sophomore | C | Arkansas

Williams is smart and a good passer, but too often it felt like he was trying to game the system. He was amazing at taking charges, but that was basically his entire defensive repertoire; can he be something more than Mo Wagner in the NBA? Defensively he would play a hundred feet off the ball and wasn’t great laterally even in closer quarters; any switch against an NBA-caliber guard will result in him conceding on off-the-dribble 3s unless he really tightens up his footwork.

Offensively, he’s crafty, but he’s also undersized, not a great finisher, and only a career 25.5 percent shooter from 3. I have him on here out of deference to his passing and overall basketball IQ, which could end up translating in unexpected ways.

53. Kofi Cockburn | 6-11 junior | C | Illinois

An old-school, broad-shouldered center who just wants to mash in the paint, Cockburn did enough at the combine to show how his game could translate in a backup center role. He can overpower opponents on the glass (20.3 rebound rate in the Big Ten), draws heaps of fouls with his physicality, and can effectively body opposing bigs away from the rim. Defense will be an issue — he has to play in a drop coverage and isn’t much of a shot blocker — but at this point in the draft, he’s a decent gamble.

Tier XII: The best of the rest

53. Andrew Nembhard | 6-3 senior | PG | Gonzaga

 

(James Snook / USA Today)

Nembhard rocketed up draft boards after dominating the final day at the combine, but let’s not get crazy here. We also have four years of game tape from Florida and Gonzaga to see what he is and what he isn’t.

Nembhard can run a team and makes few mistakes, but offensively, his 34.3 percent career shooting and lack of blast-off quickness are unlikely to turn him into a plus weapon. Relative to a player like Tyus Jones, for instance, his college stats are far more underwhelming at both sides of the floor, although Nembhard did boost his steals rate last season and become a more respectable shooter. It’s not crazy to squint and see a Monte Morris-type upside here, but I still think the more likely endgame is as a third point guard.

54. Jabari Walker | 6-7 sophomore | PF | Colorado

Just one of those guys with a nose for the ball. Walker is 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan and a 28-inch no-step vertical, which should put him at a disadvantage against other power forwards. But despite average tools, he’s a freakishly good rebounder, one who snagged 21.1 percent of missed shots in Pac-12 games this season. While he subsists heavily on second shots and averaged two turnovers for every assist, there’s also enough floor-spacing gravity here (39.9 percent career on a decent total of attempts) to suggest Walker can have value as a bench energizer.

55. Luke Travers | 6-7 | SF | Perth Wildcats

One of my favorite stash candidates, Travers played in the G League Elite Camp and showed enough feel as a passer and secondary ballhandler to think he can make it if his shot straightens out. To this point that’s been the biggest hold-up in him turning into a Joe Ingles-type distributor from the forward spot, because Travers can put it on the deck with either hand and make plays off the dribble. He also rocks a glorious blond mullet straight out of a 1984 Ratt video, which makes every play twice as impressive.

56. Dom Barlow | 6-9 | PF | Overtime Elite

Somebody should select this guy with one of the final picks of the draft and sign him to a two-year two-way; I think he could become a real player in time, but it’s not going to be overnight. He looked lost at times in the draft combine games, but he’s 6-9 with a solid frame and a 7-3 wingspan, and only just turned 19. His performance at OTE this season didn’t suggest insta-stardom or anything, but he was one of the better players there and he may fill out enough to end up being a full-time five.

57. Matteo Spagnolo | 6-4 | SG | Vanoli Cremona

Relative to his fellow Italian Procida (see above), Spagnolo is a better shooter and a year younger, but wasn’t as impressive production-wise, is two inches shorter and a worse athlete. Spagnolo’s 2021-22 shooting splits are eye-popping (44.1 percent from 3 and 86.1 percent from the line), but it’s a small sample (675 minutes, just 68 3-point attempts). and he’s never shot at quite this level before. All of his makes him much better as a stash candidate than as somebody to draft onto a roster, and a good pick late in the second round for teams inclined to wait.

58. Jamaree Bouyea | 6-0 | PG | San Francisco

There’s a lot to nit-pick here if you want. Bouyea is 6-0 in socks, he’ll be 23 at the end of the month, he’s more of a scorer than a distributor, and he shot 33.7 percent from 3 in college. Also, on tape, it was more like Jamaree Blowby, with a reaction time to his first slide measured in lunar years.

And yet … at this point in the draft, an athletic guard with shot-creation and ball-thieving skills seems like a decent proposition. Bouyea is short and can look heavy-footed at times, but he also had an impressive steal rate, sports a 6-7 wingspan and uncorked a 32.5-inch standing jump. He needs to improve his outside shot but has the ability to get to pull-ups with relative ease, as he showed in a 36-point outburst in his team’s NCAA Tournament loss to Murray State. 

Tier XIII: My top two-way guys

Only 58 players will be selected (Miami and Milwaukee forfeited their second-round picks, taking us down from the usual 60), but the after-party is gonna be lit. Teams value their two-way spots more than ever and will be on the phones with undrafted players trying to fill those slots as soon as the draft ends. Here are some of my favorites who didn’t crack the top 58 above:

59. Tyrese Martin | 6-6 senior | SG | Connecticut

Martin had a mostly unremarkable season at UConn, but showed enough versatility at the G League Elite Camp and then the combine to give himself a decent chance of getting drafted. He’s an iffy shooter, but his size, handle and defense, combined with an impressive 39-inch max vertical, give him some pathways toward rotation-ish usefulness as a backup at either wing spot. Martin also rebounds unusually well for a wing, with a 13.0 percent rebound rate in Big East games, checking another box in the positive column.

60. Iverson Molinar | 6-2 junior | PG | Mississippi State

I’ve liked Molinar from the word go because he has first-step quickness that you can’t teach, and that skill tends to blossom in the more open NBA game. He also has a 6-8 wingspan and a 39-inch max vertical.

That said, there is some work to do here. Iverson has improved as a distributor but still plays as a scorer too much; his outside shot also looked increasingly contorted this year as he slumped to 25.2 percent from 3. He’s a career 83.1 percent free-throw shooter so one hopes the 3-ball is salvageable; he has no chance without it. Finally, for a quick, athletic guy, Molinar doesn’t make dribblers feel him much at the defensive end. He needs to be a more active and handsier defender at his size.

All this may be worth a two-way investment because of his potential as a bench scorer; he can scoot.

61. Darius Days | 6-6 senior | PF | LSU

Days is undersized for the four and had a 24-inch no-step vertical, so we’re not off to a good start here. But it’s not that hard to picture him as a high-IQ, no-mistake role player stretching the floor off a team’s bench. He shot 35.3 percent from 3 for his career, but on very high volume for a four, and was crafty enough defensively to nab 3.0 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games.

Given the evolution of the position toward smaller, stretchable, switchable players, and the ability of Days’ 7-1 wingspan to let him play bigger than his height and hops would suggest, he may have a chance.

62. Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 junior | C | USC

I’m a sucker for bigs who can pass because I’m willing to bet their feel level wins out over other limitations. Mobley isn’t nearly as talented as his more famous younger brother, but his 5.8 dimes per 100 possessions and nearly 2:1 assist-turnover rate jump off the page for a college big man. The tape shows several advanced deliveries in the mix, hinting at usefulness off the elbows and, perhaps, above the arc if his nascent 3-point game keeps developing.

Mobley will need to take advantage of the same ability to read the game on the other end, where he was a subpar rebounder even for a college five and a limited rim protector. Between that and his blah athleticism, we’re probably talking about backup five upside, but there are worse two-way gambles you could take.

63. Keon Ellis | 6-4 senior | SG | Alabama 

Ellis was invisible on the court at the combine and measured just 6-3½ in socks (Alabama listed him at 6-6), which probably nuked his chances of getting picked in the top 40, but there is still a 3-and-D package to sell here. Defensively he’s pretty solid — he gets into the ball, has active hands and often took the challenge of checking small, fast guards. He lacks strength in close quarters and sometimes succumbed to quick changes of direction, but he won’t’ be a target on that end of the floor.

Offensively, I don’t love the optics on Ellis’ stroke, but for his career, he made 37.1 percent from 3 on high volume and 83.1 percent from the line, so maybe I should shut up. He needs to show more vitality off the dribble, but he finished chances when he got them.

64. Aminu Mohammed | 6-4 freshman | SG | Georgetown

A one-and-done who isn’t getting much attention despite undeniable athleticism and a 6-11 wingspan, Mohammed may not have enough skill to get by at his height. He held his own on the court at the combine, however, and his rates of rebounds and steals were pretty remarkable.

What wasn’t remarkable was how he did on self-created shots; Mohammed shot only 36.7 percent on 2s in Big East games, and while some of that owes to the general train wreck that was the Hoyas 2021-22 season, Mohammed also has to refine his drives and finishes and hit the open man more often. His shooting is another question mark, at 31.0 percent from 3 on low volume. More often than not, a guy like this tops out as a good G League player, but if the shooting and decision-making come around, Mohammed has more upside than most of the players in this range.

65. Tevin Brown | 6-5 senior | SG | Murray State

I was pretty impressed with Brown when I saw him in person, just because he knows exactly what he is as a player, and that thing has a good chance to translate into a limited NBA role. Brown can shoot with deep range, converting 38.6 percent of his career 3s and owning good footwork coming off pindowns and into catch-and-shoots. He’s much less of a threat off the dribble, although he can get out for the occasional highlight finish on the break and showed good secondary creation as a passer.

Brown has a skinny frame, weighing in at 175 pounds at the combine, but he was a solid enough defender and held his own on the glass. The “3” part of his potential “3-and-D” package is more NBA-ready, and at 24 years old, he’s gonna need to make his mark quickly. But he has a chance.

66. Hyunjung Lee | 6-7 junior | SF | Davidson 

Lee is a great two-way lottery ticket because his potential as a movement shooter with size offers obvious comps to the two-way successes of Max Strus and Duncan Robinson in Miami.

Lee pretty clearly patterns his game after Klay Thompson, moving off the ball for back-cuts and catch-and-shoots but rarely putting it on the deck on his own. He did this well enough to shoot 39.7 percent from 3 for his career on monstrous volume (11.5 3 attempts per 100 possessions) and 82.3 percent from the line; he can shoooooot, y’all.

Lee also measured a legit 6-7 with a 6-9 wingspan at G League Elite Camp, making it easier to envision him playing the 3 and thereby softening concerns about his footspeed. He also rebounded like a 4 in the Atlantic 10 and has a pretty solid build.

That said, his feet are the big question here, because the lateral quickness is suspect, to say the least. The game seemed to zip past him at G League Elite Camp, although he still managed to uncork 15 3-point attempts in 38 minutes, and he’ll be a popular target for opponents.

67. Jordan Hall | 6-7 sophomore | SF | St. Joseph’s 

Hall struggles to score and isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s 6-7, 20 years old and can handle the ball, providing enough intriguing quirkiness to justify a late second-round flier or, more likely, a post-draft call for a two-way. Hall shot 35.8 percent from 3 in his two seasons, and the 3 off the dribble seems to be his go-to because he’s such a shaky scorer inside the arc (41.7 percent on 2s — yikes).

The intriguing part, however, is that Hall also can pass and rebound, with per-100 possession stats nearly in triple-double territory. The passes didn’t always hit their mark — he also had a huge turnover rate, and his role was undoubtedly too high for comfort because he was forced to be the go-to guy for an 11-19 team. But scouts have been talking up Hall since the middle of his freshman season; there is something to build on here.

68. Grayson Murphy | 6-3 senior | PG | Belmont

Pardon me while I pull a name out of left field here. I’ve been intrigued by Murphy ever since I saw him as a freshman, against some guy from Murray State name Ja Morant. I’m not sure whatever happened to that guy, but Murphy is now a 23-year-old, fifth-year senior.

At first, his case isn’t exactly overwhelming. He averaged 7.7 points per game in the Ohio Valley Conference, and he might not really be 6-3 (we don’t know — he wasn’t even invited to the G League Elite Camp, let alone the combine). He’s a 32.2 percent career 3-point marksman on low volume and 57.5 percent from the line.

And yet … he is a good test case for the idea that we spend too much time looking at the scoring columns with prospects and not enough looking at the others. Murphy is an absolute stat-sheet stuffer, rebounding like a power forward, dropping two and a half dimes for every turnover, and swiping an amazing 4.3 steals per 100 possessions.

69. Scotty Pippen Jr. | 6-0 junior | PG | Vanderbilt

Pippen is small, makes too many turnovers and isn’t a great shooter. The first thing isn’t fixable, but one of the other two needs to change for Pippen to establish himself as an NBA point guard. Either is possible, and neither is likely.

If he can turn the corner, though, there are some things to like here. Pippen is small but will heat up the ball on defense (3.7 steals per 100 in SEC games) and was a constant pest in the combine games. He gets downhill to the basket easily, and while his decision-making at that point needs to improve, he draws heaps of fouls (a ridiculous 16.3 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions in SEC play). He’s not a shooter, but the shot isn’t what you’d call broke neither; he made 34.3 percent from 3 for his career.

Most guys like this have NBA careers measured in 10-day increments, but on a two-way, Pippen has a chance to be more if he can clean up some of his rough edges.

70. Alondes Williams | 6-4 junior | PG | Wake Forest 

Has the ACC player of the Year ever gone undrafted before? Williams is huge for a point guard, has a good first step, rebounds like a wing and can jump. However, he’s an erratic shooter (27.0 percent from 3 for his career) and too often dribbled into crowds and/or threw passes into the seventh row. He’s capable of some impressive looks when he’s running well, and when he gets downhill he can use his size and hops to finish at the cup, but the overall package ends up being pretty inefficient.

Williams is an amazing story, coming from a backup role at Oklahoma to improbably win ACC player of the year for one of the league’s lesser lights, but he’s 23 and will need to play very differently as a pro. I’m not sure this story ends in more than a two-way.

71. Michael Foster | 6-8 | PF/C | G League Ignite

Foster got lots of reps in his gap year with the Ignite, and he was … serviceable. Fine. He can score a fair amount for a big, with a solid midrange game that could stretch out to the 3-point line in time. However, he is an average athlete and is rather undersized for the five at the NBA levels, which would force him into defending fours … which I’m not sure he can really do.

Foster has some shot-blocking instincts and is pretty long for his height (7-0 wingspan); that and a real 3-point shot might make him threatening enough to establish a career as a frontcourt reserve. He’s 19 and was a decent player in the G League last year, which is a good starting point for him to become … something. What that something is remains to be seen.

72. Justin Bean | 6-7 senior | PF | Utah State

Bean has one giant red flag: he is 25 and will turn 26 the first month of the season. I only know this because I was his backup in high school.

Seriously, Bean is one of the oldest straight-from-college rookies the league has ever seen, thanks mostly to a two-year Mormon mission, and that likely nukes any chance of somebody using a draft pick on him.

But as a two-way, I think he might be able to help a team immediately. Bean can really jump and is a tremendous out-of-area rebounder, he shot 46.5 percent from 3 (on low volume) and 80.0 percent from the line, and he has the mobility to defend along the perimeter. Obviously, nobody is signing him for long-term upside, but contenders with an open two-way should look at him.

73. Orlando Robinson | 6-10 junior | C | Fresno State

I have trouble getting excited about centers, but Robinson has a 7-4 wingspan and enough skill to be at least somewhat interesting as a developmental big. He can be a bit slow and plodding defensively, but he made 37 3-pointers in 36 games and knows what he’s doing on the block. While I have a hard time talking myself into him being anything better than mediocre on defense, there is enough here offensively to take a flier on him.

74. Kam McGusty | 6-4 senior | SG | Miami 

McGusty is the perimeter answer to Justin Bean, a 24-year-old “veteran” who turns 25 this fall, and was one of the best players in the ACC this year in his sixth – yes, sixth – college season. McGusty had a disappointing G League Elite Camp and measured an inch shorter than his listed height, which combined with his age might have been enough for teams to write him off.

They shouldn’t, though. He shoots better than his 34.0 percent career mark would lead you to believe, and is very comfortable attacking bigs off switches and getting into pull-ups off the dribble. He’s a strong, handsy defender, too, posting high steal rates each of the past two seasons, and his solid frame should help him at the next level. As with Bean above, I think a contending team in need of immediate help should look at him for a two-way spot.

75. Bryson Williams | 6-9 senior | PF | Texas Tech

He’s 24, so again, don’t get your hopes too high. He’s a limited athlete, too, which means he probably has to be a stretch four rather than a five. That said, Williams can probably help somebody right now on a two-way. He has a 7-2 wingspan, finishes catches around the basket and added enough 3-point juice last season (41.7 percent, on reasonable volume) to have legitimate stretch possibilities. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp, earning his way into the main combine, and last season was one of the key players on the nation’s second-best defense.

---

 

[Fud 9559]

Russillo and Vecenie say that Dieng has a promise, but that it's outside of the top ten and might not be there for the team that promised him

[Slacks 6880]

On 6/15/2022 at 9:43 AM, Fud said:

 

I hope Orlando goes with the Ricky 'best pick' so Houston can get Smith.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[shadow_operative 15932]

10 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

it's a lot:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Tier 1: The two biggest fish in a medium-size pond

 1. Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 freshman | PF | Auburn

Smith is an unusual player for a top overall pick because he didn’t always dominate games athletically. He had unusually low rates of rebounds, blocks and steals for a prospect of this caliber and shot just 43.9 percent on 2s in SEC games. (Reminder: I often rely on stats in conference games because they winnow out the early-season joke games against St. Leo’s and Incarnate Word.)

So what’s the case for Smith? Let’s start with his jumper, which is just smooth as butter. Smith might have the best shooting form of any prospect I’ve evaluated since Michael Porter Jr. launching perfect parabolas toward the rim and having the footwork to get into this stroke during live play. At a legit 6-10, Smith can rise over anybody and launch, providing something of an offensive cheat code that should set up the rest of his game as he develops.

Meanwhile, his athletic gifts are also pretty significant. Some of his defensive clips had me cackling, yelling, “Noooooo don’t do it!” at my monitor while some rando college guard decided to try his luck isoing Smith off the dribble.

Smith can slide his feet like a guard, plus his length allows him to play a half step farther off dribblers and cut off any driving angles. He sometimes gives a little too much cushion and will need to play closer in the pros, but his switchability at the pro level seems rock solid. He also rarely gets faked off his feet, a bugaboo for a lot of bigs who otherwise can hold up on switches. Quick, hard changes of direction occasionally leave him a step behind, but he also has the “catch-up” ability to get back in the play and block shots from behind.

With his body still filling out, Smith has a low post defense that’s maybe not quite as clinical. Opponents could duck in and get position, especially when Walker Kessler was off the floor and Smith had to play the five, and he didn’t contest their shots as aggressively as you might hope. Adding some muscle obviously will help here, but I’d be leery of playing him much at the five in the NBA until he adds more lower body strength.

Finally, there’s the age issue. With a May 2003 birthdate, Smith is six months younger than Banchero and a full year younger than Holmgren. He’s physically young too, as he’s still pretty clearly growing into his body. In a draft without a surefire future All-Star, he seems the one most likely to earn that honor.

2. Paolo Banchero | 6-10 freshman | PF | Duke

Prospect-wise, Banchero isn’t perfect. He’s not an elite athlete or a great defender, his arms are a bit short for a big, and his shooting stroke could stand to be more consistent (33.8 percent from 3 and 72.9 percent from the line). He’s a bit on the older side for a one-and-done, and his rates of steals and blocks are pretty sad for a lottery prospect.

OK, now that I’m done whining … Banchero is also an attacking, off-the-dribble shot creator at 6-10, and he’s not some shot-hunting pig either. He averaged an eye-opening 6.3 assists per 100 possessions last season, often acting as a de facto point guard for a Duke team that didn’t have a true lead guard. It’s pretty easy to envision a world in which he’s his team’s best or second-best offensive option, particularly if his line-drive outside shot gets a little more air under it and a bit more consistency.

Defensively, Banchero’s lack of length gives him issues contesting shots and protecting the rim, which might limit his utility as a small-ball five. Otherwise, I thought his tape was pretty good. His clips in isolation defense show a guy who is comfortable sliding his feet out on the perimeter, and he didn’t default to giving yards of space and allowing easy pull-up 3s the way some bigs do. In his best moments, he could play close enough to remove any pull-ups at all, like this:

Banchero seems to change direction pretty well, but in straight-line speed challenges he is vulnerable; little fast guys give him problems, but he can defend anyone two through four on the perimeter pretty capably.

Overall, he’s a fairly safe bet as a high-production four, one with plus offense and who can get to the point of being solid defensively.

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Tier II: High ceilings, but more speculative

3. Jaden Ivey | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Purdue

Ivey is the one player in this draft who is most reminiscent of Ja Morant, with a blast-off first step that sends him rocketing toward the rim. It should be even more effective in the open space of the NBA versus a Purdue approach that was heavily geared toward entering the ball to its two behemoth post players.

Alas, the Morant comparisons break down once we get into the decision-making realm. Ivey barely averaged more assists than turnovers in Big Ten play; his good clips are ridiculous, but there is a lot of head-scratching chaff to work through before you get to that wheat. His shooting is also a question mark, with a below-the-shoulder set shot similar to Morant’s that yielded 32.2 percent from 3 and 73.98 percent from the line in his two years with the Boilermakers. Put simply, Ivey is going to be an offensive skill-development challenge for whatever team picks him, but the upside reward is an All-Star-caliber shot creator from the guard spot.

Defensively it’s a similar story. The physical toolset is there, but the application of those tools is a bit inconsistent. Ivey can get caught upright and blown by at times but doesn’t concede space and can still stay with dribblers. Opponents rarely went at him in isolation, perhaps because of the giant dude waiting in the paint behind him, but also because it didn’t look profitable the few times opponents tried. Ivey can slide his feet and explodes off the floor to challenge shots, sometimes surprising shooters who thought they had themselves a nice pull-up.

He needs the defensive output to be more consistent, especially if he’s juggling a prominent offensive role at the same time. The tape from his freshman year is actually even better, perhaps because less was being asked of him at the other end.

Overall, this is an eye-test call. Ivey’s college track record is wartier than you’d prefer for a pick this high, especially from a sophomore, but nobody else in this draft is in Ivey’s league as an off-the-dribble creative force.

 4. Chet Holmgren | 7-1 freshman | C | Gonzaga

A lot of the concerns about Holmgren have to deal with his frame. At 7-1 and just 195 pounds, will he be more prone to injuries? Will he hold up to the pounding of a routine NBA game multiplied by 82? The visual is hard to ignore — he looks like somebody might break him in half — but I’m wondering if these worries are missing the real issue. Career-length issues for bigs are usually driven by lower extremity injuries; the fact that Holmgren’s light build puts less strain on his knees and ankles could end up being a major positive for his long-term durability.

The real thing to wonder about with Holmgren is whether drafting a 7-1 center in the top five makes any sense unless he’s basically guaranteed to play in the All-Star Game. Holmgren definitely has some huge positives — few bigs have shown as much juice off the dribble at a young age, his 3-point shot is already reliable enough to be a passable long-range floor spacer (39.0 percent from 3 as a freshman), and he finishes everything around the basket (73.7 percent on 2s).

Holmgren also controls the paint like few others, with an absurd 12.6 percent block rate and 28.7 percent defensive rebound rate. NBA teams still are skittish about playing zone, but Holmgren could be an awesome zone defender.

Three issues prevent him from ranking higher here. First, the skinny body really limits his ability to have any kind of post game. There is virtually no cost to switching a guard on him. He can shoot and handle a bit, but offensively, he’s trending toward Myles Turner.

Second, nobody talks about this, but Holmgren is a year older than most freshmen, with a May 2002 birthdate. For comparison, the next player on my board, Bennedict Mathurin, has played two years at Arizona but is a month younger than Holmgren.

Lastly, the defensive tape is perhaps not quite as awesome as the stats might make you believe, particularly in switch situations. The Synergy stats say he performed well against isolations, but several of those plays featured missed bunnies at the rim, and the sample is small enough that it matters. Holmgren typically gave up a driving lane to one side and then relied on his length to contest at the summit, but often didn’t get there in time.

Occasionally, it went worse than that, particularly against pro-caliber guards. Here Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams (an underrated prospect!) just flat-out drops him:

Holmgren held up much better when bigs tried to take him off the dribble in closer quarters; there just isn’t enough room to get away from his arms. Opponents will see his body and think they can mash him in the paint, but that is likely to be a horrible mistake that ends badly. His tentacles swallow up everything in the paint, and he could very well lead the league in blocks every year.

Because of that, and the talent gradient we’re about to hit, this is probably the best slot for Holmgren. I’m not a huge fan of drafting centers, as you can tell, but the risk-reward equation turns more positive after the first three names are off the board.

Tier III: Reliably solid wings

5. Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Arizona

One can argue it’s a reach to take Mathurin at No. 5, since it’s unlikely he’ll ever be the best player on his team. But because of his positional value and skill set, even his mid-tier scenarios make him a $20 million player in today’s NBA. Few players have more obvious 3-and-D utility than Mathurin, an athletic 6-6 Canadian of Haitian extraction who came through the NBA’s development academy in Mexico City. He’s still evolving into his game, but in two years at Arizona, he shot 38.7 percent from 3 and 78.9 percent from the line.

Mathurin still needs to tighten his handle and improve his feel, factors that could limit him from moving beyond a 3-and-D role at the next level, but his size and plus athleticism give him outs even if he never turns into a ballhandling wizard. Additionally, he doubled his assist rate as a sophomore at Arizona, showing visible progress as an on-ball creator.

Defensively, Mathurin might be more “solid” than true stopper. He’ll get into the ball but is not quite as fluid laterally as you might hope. He also can sit up in his stance at times, permitting blow-bys. More often, he’s able to stay solid and use his size and length to contest late, but he’s rarely an active disruptor on that end.

 6. Shaedon Sharpe | 6-6 freshman | SG/SF | Kentucky

Teams have a lot of questions about Sharpe, questions that aren’t going to get answered by seeing him work out against a chair in Chicago at the combine. Why didn’t he play at all for Kentucky this year? How much did that set him back?

While teams comb through background parts and go back through his EYBL tape, the inevitably of the upside scenarios is what’s likely to see him chosen high. He could fail spectacularly, but the bar for this player archetype is pretty low as far as eventual success goes. Sharpe is 6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan and can really shoot; watching him work out on the floor before Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament game, I found it pretty clear he’ll be a viable NBA floor spacer from Day 1.

He’s also athletic enough that he was ranked as the top prospect in the Class of 2023 before reclassifying. How many guys like that, who also had elite shooting ability, have failed? Yes, there are questions about his feel and other, secondary lines of inquiry given that nobody has seen him play top-drawer competition. If he were a center or point guard, I’d have him several places lower. But a 6-6 wing who can shoot? Even if he “fails” in terms of achieving stardom, that still becomes a decent value proposition.

7. Keegan Murray | 6-8 sophomore | SF/PF | Iowa

Murray is probably the most head-scratching player in this draft. On the one hand, he’s a 6-8 forward who put up video-game stats in the Big Ten. Don’t overthink this, right? But on the other hand, he was a much older player (turning 22 in August, he’s the second-oldest player on my list today), and his tape isn’t quite as alluring as his stats. Murray is neither a high-wire athlete nor a knockdown shooter. He’s fine and all — 37.3 percent from 3 and 74.9 percent from the line in two years at Iowa — but it’s his all-around wiles as a scorer that provide his real value.

It’s fair to question how much daylight that part of his game will receive at the NBA level, because he doesn’t create easy separation and isn’t a great distributor.

Defensively, it’s more of the same. His size and length help him get hands on balls, but he’s not some elite stopper out there. He offers some secondary rim protection but didn’t always show great awareness, and his team’s defense was consistently its undoing. Murray has long arms and can slide his feet on the ball, so he should hold up decently enough against wings and fours.

What I get back to is that we’ve seen this movie before with guys like T.J. Warren and Cedric Ceballos — smooth forwards who lacked top-drawer athleticism but had crazy feel for scoring and finding buckets in the flow of the game. The league undervalues guys like this sometimes because they don’t have an easy box to slide into, but I’m pretty confident Murray can be a rotation forward at worst, and the upside is a 20-point scorer.

Tier IV: Let’s get crazy

Here’s where I suspect my draft board deviates pretty radically from the consensus. Partly, this is because the late lottery this year appears a bit soft in terms of surefire NBA talent, and partly, this is because I value certain things more than others. The one accelerated the other: If the talent curve is relatively flat, stylistic preferences inevitably matter more.

With that said, fasten your seat belts…

 8. Jeremy Sochan | 6-9 freshman | PF | Baylor

A Polish citizen who grew up mostly in England, Sochan offers an alluring combination of present value and long-term upside as a high-energy forward with some shot-creation possibilities. Although he’s 6-9, Sochan can handle the ball and get to the cup with long strides and loosey-goosey quickness. He can make some decent reads as a passer, and he shot 60.7 percent inside the arc in Big 12 games. His shooting is more speculation but wasn’t as bad as the percentages make it seem (29.6 percent from 3, 58.9 percent from the line). His form needs work, but it’s not broken.

Sochan is better east and west than vertically; he’s quick, but he doesn’t pop off the floor. Relative to a player like Banchero, he offers more potential switchability and could even do work as a small-ball five as his body fills out. His tape against guards is very good, playing close enough that they can’t just walk into pull-ups, even contested ones, while still mostly holding his own when they tested his speed. Sochan leaves his feet too willingly and good crossovers sometimes leave him wobbly. He also had problems when dribblers got into his body, something that likely will become less problematic with more strength and experience.

Overall, we’re in a different area now in terms of risk-reward proposition. It’s possible Sochan is never anything more than an energy backup, but his upside scenarios are so tempting that he’s worth grabbing once my top seven names are off the board.

9. Dyson Daniels | 6-6 | SG | G League Elite

We’re getting into a type here in the late lottery: Guys with poor left-tail outcomes because of their shooting, but enough on the right tail to make them worth pursuing regardless. Daniels isn’t a freak athlete, shot 52.5 percent from the line and 27.3 percent from 3 in the G League and needs an hour and a half to uncork his outside shot.

I’m a big fan anyway. Few players I saw this year were more obviously about the right things than Daniels; even as his teammates with Elite did whatever the hell it was they were doing, he was very consciously trying to play the right way, hit the open man and compete on defense. He guarded every opponent’s best player and was good at it, with size, competitiveness and anticipation for steals. He has a point guard’s handle and is a plus passer. While he isn’t an above-the-rim athlete, he’s able to finish in transition and draw fouls in the lane.

An Australian who is the same age as this year’s one-and-dones, Daniels came away with a statistical projection from his G League season that should be pretty positive: He averaged nearly two assists for every turnover, shot 54.9 percent inside the arc, had an 11.0 percent rebound rate from the guard spot and had high rates of steals and blocks. Some scouts I talked to compare him to Memphis’ Kyle Anderson in terms of an iffy shooter who can impact the game despite not being an elite athlete, but Daniels has more high-end outcomes than that because there is still time for his shot to come around.

10. Josh Minott | 6-8 freshman | SF/PF | Memphis

Jalen Duren and, to a lesser extent, Emoni Bates got a lot of the attention on Memphis this year, while Minott saw his role fluctuate wildly, and he was hardly playing by the end of the year. Minott is also a bad shooter (2 of 14 on 3s in 2021-22) and will be 19 1/2 on draft day, making him a bit old for a freshman.

And yet … the analytics on Minott are really impressive, with a sky-high steal rate of a big forward (3.6 per 100 possessions in AAC play), a positive assist-turnover rate and a 14.4 percent rebound rate despite often paying next to a lottery center. History says it would be folly to ignore a player who passes this deftly and gets his hand on this many balls at the defensive end. Even the shooting has some promise — he hit 75.4 percent from the line. It’s not like he was an empty offensive force either, scoring a very respectable 25.3 points per 100 possessions. He didn’t play much, but when he did, he was quite effective.

Defensively, Minott can be tight-hipped and slow with his first slide, and a bit over-reliant on using his hands to compensate for it. He also picks up a lot of fouls that way, part of his insane foul rate (6.2 per 100 possessions).

That said, Minott probably plays closer to the dribbler of any other player I saw in this size class, which is notable — players tell on themselves by how much cushion they give the dribbler. Minott has tremendous hands and long arms and legs; he uses the former to flick the ball from unsuspecting dribblers, and the latter to make up ground if he’s initially beat. Minott goes for the ball a bit too often, a high-risk strategy that can leave an open downhill run if it fails, and because he’s thin and has a high center of gravity, he can pick up fouls when opponents get into his body or spin off him.

11. Blake Wesley | 6-5 freshman | SG | Notre Dame

This is purely an upside play — there’s a chance Wesley ends up being terrible if his shooting and finishing don’t progress. It’s still worth taking Wesley here because his first-step quickness and lateral mobility provide a framework for some elite two-way outcomes … if he can just figure out how to shoot and make a layup. In this draft class, only Ivey can surpass Wesley’s explosiveness getting downhill to the rim, something that should be a much greater weapon at the NBA level.

Wesley’s offensive stats from his one season are a tad underwhelming. While he scored in volume (29.8 points per 100 possessions), he shot 47.1 percent from the arc, 30.3 percent on 3s and 65.7 percent from the line and barely had more assists than turnovers. Yikes. He’ll benefit from the more open space of the NBA floor, but there’s a lot to clean up here.

Where I feel better about Wesley is on the defensive end. He can move his feet laterally, contest shots and had an impressive steal rate (2.8 thefts per 100 possessions). You’d like to see him get into the ball a little bit more on the perimeter and concede fewer pull-ups, but he’s long and bouncy enough to bother players when they rise up. Bizarrely, he only blocked two shots all season — another sign he may be leaving some money on the table at that end.

As a result, I see two outs for success here: first as a downhill shot creator and second as a wing defensive stopper. Hit on both, and you’ve really got something. I initially had Wesley ranked lower but comparing his best-case scenarios with the less intriguing upside scenarios that follow, I had to move him up the list even if there’s a decent chance he bombs because of his offense.

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Tier V: Relatively safer and less spectacular

 12. Jalen Duren | 6-11 freshman | C | Memphis

How much do you value having a decent center with some upside? I like Duren quite a bit but struggled with where to place him on my board because he’s a one-position player at the least valuable position, and chances are he’ll never stretch his game out to the 3-point line.

I’m extremely confident Duren can be a rotation center for a decade; how far beyond that he can get is a very open question. Is there enough rim running and shot blocking to be a legit starter? You wouldn’t trade a lottery pick for a backup five, so the answer to this has to at least be a “maybe” to rank him here.

Nonetheless, Duren packs some real positives. He was an impactful college player even as a young freshman, he has a 7-5 wingspan and a solid enough frame to be a plus defender and rim-runner, and he made some notably good passes for a player of this ilk. He disappointed a bit as a rim protector, however; 3.9 blocks per 100 in the American Conference is fine but not exactly Holmgren territory, and he doesn’t explode off the floor on shot challenges the way you might like from an interior presence.

Memphis also switched him a lot and was clearly very comfortable with him defending on the perimeter, even against very small guards. I’d describe his feet as more “good” than “great;” he can be a little slow at times and at others had to give up excessive cushion to feel like he could keep in front. The biggest barrier for him is just that the bar for “switchable big” in the NBA is getting so darned high, especially as we get deeper into the postseason. He’s good enough to get there though.

13. A.J. Griffin | 6-6 freshman | SG | Duke

Griffin is 6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan and shot 44.7 percent from 3 on relatively high volume last year, which will be the press release summary from the team that picks him. That might have you thinking “3-and-D!” But let’s stop the presses on the D part.

Griffin’s defensive tape is … not good. He may have to play four, even at 6-6, because he has decent strength but his feet are stuck in concrete. He is very slow sliding his feet and reacting to an opponent’s first move and had absolutely no chance checking quick guards.

Going through his tape, I found it one thing to see ACC Player of the Year Alondes Williams cook him on a straight-line drive; when a random dude from Army did the same thing, that’s when the red flags really started flapping in the wind. Griffin’s indicator stats aren’t great either, with a pathetic steal rate for a wing (just 1.1 per 100 possessions in ACC play).

Offensively, he didn’t impress when he put it on the floor, but the threat of his shot does open lanes for him pretty easily and widen his margin for error. Also, did I mention his shooting? Griffin has a low release point but moves to get himself open and can knock down catch-and-shoots from a variety of platforms. I don’t see him being a guy who can come flying off screens locked-and-loaded, but he’s an elite catch-and-shoot threat from Day 1. That gives him value even if he struggles at the other end, and at just 19, there’s at least a shred of hope he can keep improving the defense.

14. TyTy Washington |6-3 freshman | PG | Kentucky

There’s an upside scenario that you have to think about with Washington, which is that John Calipari has a history of making guards look very ordinary, only to see them blow up when they get to the NBA. Devin Booker, Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey all come to mind. Is Washington another?

Maybe. He had a really good stretch in midseason before suffering an ankle injury against Florida, showing the ability to run the offense at 6-3, get to floaters and make the right decisions. There was nothing electrifying about it, and his push shot from the perimeter (35.0 percent from 3, 75.0 percent from the line) isn’t wowing anybody either, but he was low-key pretty darn efficient.

Defensively, Washington had a high steal rate and has the awareness to do some neat, subtle things; he’ll tilt his torso and arms diagonally while coming around screens to take away pocket passes, for instance. He’s not a suffocating defender overall, and for some reason seems to move much better to his left than to his right. Maybe it’s random, but he gave up a lot of blow-bys on that side.

All this probably adds more up to a solid third guard than anything special, especially since Washington was unusually old for a freshman and turns 21 in November. (He’s nearly the same age as Duke junior Wendell Moore, for example.)

15. Kendall Brown | 6-8 freshman | SF | Baylor

Brown may not provide enough offensively to be a starting-caliber player, but his odds of having a legit career seem pretty high because he’s 6-8, can pass and run and guard multiple positions. Guys like that fit in somewhere unless they’re complete disasters from the perimeter. In a league where 6-8 forwards who don’t suck become central pieces of the playoff rotation, he will have value.

Brown certainly gives some concern on offense. He shot 34.3 percent from 3 on extremely low volume and 67.3 percent from the line in his one season at Baylor — but his other indicator stats are halfway decent. He shot 63.8 percent inside the arc, scored at a respectable clip and showed halfway decent feel — his mistakes were often trying passes that were just beyond his level, but his feel didn’t seem deficient. In transition, he was good.

Defensively, Brown doesn’t have super long arms but his height and leaping allow him to get great contests on pull-up jump shooters, plus he seems to have pretty good intuition for exactly how much room to give while still being in position to bother the shot. He had a good steal rate with anticipation off the ball, but against dribblers, he isn’t a guy who impacts the ball much; he tries more to stay solid and keep the ball in front, and does a good job of it. Fast guards with enough runway could beat him with straight-line speed, but you’ll live with that from a combo forward.

Finally, Brown is only 19 with a prototype body for an NBA forward, so we shouldn’t dismiss upside scenarios out of hand here. I feel like he’s getting a bit forgotten because he’s no longer a “hot” name, but it’s not crazy to think he could go in the late lottery.

 16. Tari Eason | 6-7 sophomore | SF | LSU

I have a sneaking suspicion that Eason’s wildness is going to work against him and cause him to slip in the draft; teams may have trouble sticking a fork into a defined role for him. Eason is a big wing with a solid frame who can guard anything from one to four, a disruptive defender whose rates of “stocks” are almost Matisse Thybulle-esque (4.5 steals and 2.5 blocks per 100 in SEC play, nearly matching what Thybulle did in the Pac 12 at the same age).

Wait, there’s more. He’s also an absurdly good rebounder for his size (15.7 rebound rate in the SEC!) and scored easily and efficiently last season. He shot 56.4 percent inside the arc with a massive free-throw rate, made 80.3 percent from the line and even hit 35.9 percent from 3 despite a funky-looking slingshot release that teams aren’t totally sure will translate to the pros. Did I mention he averaged 39.4 points per 100 possessions and had a 34.5 PER in the SEC?

So why is he down here and not in the top five? Because it’s not clear what he did — basically, putting his head down and burrowing to the rim regardless of the situation — has any utility at the next level. Eason isn’t passing — he had two turnovers for every assist, not to mention about 15 true shot attempts — and a lot of his best moments came in transition. If you don’t believe in the shooting, he may not have a role in a half-court offense; given that the previous season at Cincinnati he shot 24.1 percent from 3 and 57.4 percent from the line, this is a realistic fear.

Defensively, he is really good laterally, definitely in the top tier in this draft class. Even small guards had all kinds of trouble turning the corner against him. He has a tendency to rise up out of his stance at times, which can leave him vulnerable to a good hesi move.

However, the same pattern of overaggression bordering on recklessness that marked his offense also was his undoing on defense. Eason committed a whopping 7.7 fouls per 100 possessions in SEC play and had a particularly bad habit of crash-landing into 3-point shooters while challenging shots.

Finally, Eason is a bit older than some of the other players on this list, which is why I put guys like Brown and Griffin ahead of him.

At this point in the draft though, I think his athleticism has to win out. Eason is clearly an NBA athlete and fits a size profile that is constantly sought throughout the league. If he even gets to the 25th percentile as a half-court offensive player, his transition, rebounding and defense will make him a valuable performer.

17. E.J. Liddell | 6-7 junior | PF | Ohio State

I’m a bit higher on Liddell than most, just because I can’t help thinking that he’s so darn smart that he’s going to figure this out one way or another. Watching him defend against guards is a good example; even though he’s at a speed disadvantage, he plays just close enough to stop them from walking into pull-up jumpers and forces them to dribble into his help.

For instance, here’s Wisconsin Johnny Davis trying to get a pull-up on him:

That IQ translates to other facets, such as his timing for off-ball shot blocks that made him an elite college rim protector despite being 6-7; his 35-inch standing vertical at the combine helps explain why. Seemingly every time I watch an Ohio State game, I see Liddell do some random, clever thing that you don’t normally see from college players.

Liddell added the 3-ball to his repertoire this season, knocking down 37.4 percent on decent volume, and has become a very good pull-up shooter. Despite lacking a deceptive handle, he drew a ton of fouls; his strength obviously helps here and should acquit him well against fours and fives at the NBA level.

Overall, you’d like him to be quicker laterally, especially with his first defensive slide, where now he can look stuck in concrete at times, and you question how much of his offensive game translates to the next level. Nonetheless, I’m buying him as a 3-and-D combo forward who can be effective in a variety of lineups.

18. Dalen Terry | 6-7 sophomore | SF | Arizona

Here’s a name you maybe weren’t expecting. Terry is still on the fence about whether to stay in the draft, but I have him rated as a first-rounder if he stays because of his ability to handle the ball, defend multiple positions and … hopefully … shoot? Terry’s stroke isn’t overtly terrible — he made 35.0 percent from 3 on low volume and 68.0 percent from the line across his two seasons at Arizona — but he’ll need to be a more persistent perimeter threat as a pro.

The good news is tall wings who can handle the ball and defend almost always find themselves in an NBA rotation, even if they aren’t high-wire athletes or electrifying scorers. Terry operated as Arizona’s de facto point guard this year, handing out nearly three assists for every turnover, while on the defensive end he ripped 2.5 steals per 100 possessions. One would have liked to see him play a more prominent and aggressive scoring role; between Mathurin (above) and Arizona’s two quality big men, at times one could forget Terry was on the floor.

The tape shows a defender who is more “good” than “remarkable.” Some of his best stuff came against smaller players, where he could give a bit more cushion with his length but still had the quickness to keep the play in front of him. Against bigger players, he gave the same cushion but couldn’t affect the shot as well, and he shuns physicality a bit because of his skinny frame.

19. Mark Williams | 7-0 sophomore | C | Duke

In a word, thwack! Williams’ 7-7 wingspan makes him the top rim-protection prospect in this draft; Auburn’s Walker Kessler blocked more shots but also got cooked a lot more often, whereas Williams never got out over his skis hunting blocks and forced opponents to play over the top of him.

Those who dared to challenge him at the summit suffered unfortunate outcomes. Kevin McCullar, meet Mark Williams:

Of course, the big question with Williams is what can he do on the offensive end. His 72.7 percent mark from the line offers some optimism that he can make 15-footers consistently, but he rarely posted up and wasn’t a big part of elbow or high post actions.

The biggest reason to be down on Williams, again, is just his position. Even if you feel pretty good about him carving out a 10-year career as a backup center, that’s not enough value to take him in the top 20. His shot blocking, physical tools and short-range shooting touch offer realistic upside as a starter, however, and that would be the selling point for sliding him into my top 20 here.

20. Jake LaRavia | 6-9 junior | PF | Wake Forest

I originally had LaRavia in my “sleepers” section, but so many people have moved him up their draft boards lately that I feel like I’m not even ahead of the average on him anymore.

LaRavia is a relatively young junior, an unknown who transferred from Indiana State before the season and then blew up for the Demon Deacons. While his teammate Williams won ACC Player of the Year, I’m more encouraged by the pro prospects of LaRavia.

Defensively, in particular, he shows multi-positional potential. He has size and strength but also had the feet to comfortably stay with guards. His strong lower body and good balance help him pester dribblers without overcommitting or getting pushed off stride. He rarely fouls but has active hands that swiped 2.7 steals per 100 possessions and is able to challenge shots without flying into shooters. Few players I saw on tape were more adept at forcing dribblers to beat them with contested 2s. There may be some quickness limitations that show against NBA athletes, but in the ACC, they switched him against everybody and he aced the test.

LaRavia’s shooting will be another topic of discussion, as he hit 38.4 percent this season but on very low volume. Career marks of 37.1 percent from 3 and 74.3 percent from the line should ease some concerns here. LaRavia checks out in other respects, as he’s a good passer and hit 61.6 percent of his shots inside the arc. Nitpickers will also note he’s not a great rebounder.

Tier VI: My three sleeper shooting guards

21. Ryan Rollins | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Toledo

In a sea of blah shooting guard prospects after Ivey and Wesley, Rollins is the one at whom I’d take the first crack. He won’t turn 20 until July and was the best player in the Mid-American Conference, and his weaknesses (3-point shooting, on-ball defense) are the type of things that seem fixable in a development program. With high rates of steals and rebounds, nearly two dimes for every turnover and a 53.6 percent mark inside the arc, he checks a lot of boxes in categories that correlate with pro success.

I originally had him much higher than this, but his defensive tape was a crushing disappointment. As I noted above, players tell on themselves by how far off the ballhandler they play; the more comfortable they are with their own lateral quickness, the closer they guard the ball. (As a human traffic cone back in the day, I perhaps internalized this lesson more than most.)

Rollins concedes acres of space, frequently allowing no-dribble 3s from the triple threat position, and yet had a lot of trouble beating his man to the spot and cutting off penetration. If this was happening in the MAC, one shudders to think what NBA guards might do to him one-on-one. Rollins’ athletic indicators and plus feel make one think this is fixable, but there’s a chance he’s just so flammable on defense that he can’t stay on the court.

22. Wendell Moore | 6-5 junior | SG | Duke

Moore kind of got lost as scouts focused on Banchero and Williams at Duke, and he played a more limited role on a talented offensive squad. However, he had a good junior year and won’t turn 21 until September, and his ability to pass, defend, make open shots and score in the open court all make him a strong candidate to become a plus role player as a pro.

Moore could likely stand to improve his finishing and overall scoring package inside the 3-point line, but his rates of rebounds, assists and steals all are among the best of any shooting guard prospect this year, and those indicators usually point toward pro success more than scoring averages. Additionally, he shot 41.3 percent from 3 and 81.5 percent from the line and usually guarded the opponent’s best player. The 3-and-D archetype is pretty clearly there, and in a fairly athletic package that might be able to go up another notch with some conditioning gains.

He has enough length and leaping ability to alter shots when he goes up to contest them, and when he did get beat off the dribble, he had a good chase-down gear to block opponents from behind. He can get a little upright, and it looked like he was trying a bit too hard to avoid fouling; changes of direction also sometimes sent him veering into a ditch. It seems he’s more likely to get picked in the second round, but he has starter upside to go with a pretty high floor.

23. Jalen Williams | 6-6 junior | SG | Santa Clara

Scouts I talked to have pretty openly admitted Williams was underscouted during the season, a classic Bad Geography Guy in the far-flung West Coast Conference. Even if scouts happened to be in the Bay Area, chances are they weren’t driving the extra hour to Santa Clara when so much other scoutable action was at hand. Now that teams are doing their film work, he’s a guy everyone is doubling back to watch.

Williams was one of the best players in a vastly improved WCC this season, a huge, solidly built point guard at 6-6 who is likely to play the wing at the next level. Williams offers a plus secondary ballhandler who can run the offense in a pinch, and if you buy his shooting development (39.6 percent from 3 this year and 80.9 percent from the line), that’s a very helpful weakside offensive player.

Defensively, Williams would likely benefit from a move to the wing. He has size and mostly opted to stay solid against opposing point guards, but he wasn’t capable of pressuring smaller players into mistakes and mostly opted for low-risk containment strategies. He can be a little stiff, and even WCC guards weren’t afraid of taking him on; he might do better sizing up rather than down, as he seemed more comfortable getting into the body of bigger players closer to the rim.

Williams also isn’t a great athlete, so teams would be buying more on size, skill and feel. But as noted above, he had the moves to fake top prospects like Holmgren out of their shoes and is rapidly losing his “sleeper” status as the league does its homework on him.

Tier VII: The upside plays

24. Ousmane Dieng | 6-8 | SF | New Zealand Breakers

That “6-8” is an estimate and might be on the low side, since Dieng didn’t do measurements at the combine.

There is a lot of reason to be skeptical about Dieng. Historically, players who have struggled in Australia have, not shockingly, also struggled in the NBA. Probably the closest comp would be R.J. Hampton, who was picked in the 20s two years ago after a blah season in Australia and has yet to establish himself as a rotation-caliber player in the pros. Hampton’s season was actually quite a bit better than Dieng’s, though. The argument can be made that Dieng is not very athletic, not much of a shooter and doesn’t have notably good feel … so, um, what exactly is he?

The retort is that he’s a big long wing with a guard’s handle, one who can possibly become another Nic Batum or more … even if he often looks more like another Isaac Bonga. Dieng can use his combo of handle and length pretty effectively and got more adventurous with it as his season went on Down Under. While he was disastrously bad for much of the year, his splits over the final month tell a tale of solid improvement.

Dieng is also one of the youngest players in the draft at 19. While I wouldn’t select him over any of my top 23 players, at this point in the draft, hitting on a giant wing who can dribble seems significantly more valuable than the return anywhere else.

25. Malaki Branham | 6-4 freshman | SG | Ohio State

The draft world tends to over-index on bucket-getting when the more telling information for NBA purposes is in every other column of the stat sheet. Branham fares poorly in almost all of those areas, which is why it’s tough to put him in my top 20.

That said … he can score, and that may translate enough to offset his other weaknesses. Branham scored 30.8 points per 100 possessions in Big Ten games as a freshman, and did it efficiently (62.8 true shooting percentage). He displayed a believable jump shot (41.3 percent from 3 on low-ish volume, 83.3 percent from the line and heaps of pull-ups) and the size and length to hit shots over defenders.

He’ll need to score because Branham’s defensive clips are … not great. While his size and length package should theoretically make him a defensive obstacle, his slides were notably slow and opposing dribblers had a pretty easy time turning the corner against him. He also wasn’t a disruptive or anticipatory defender, with a pretty shockingly low steal rate for a first-round guard prospect.

Nonetheless, a guard with his size and shooting ability has relatively abundant pathways to becoming somewhat useful, and there’s at least some upside here that he blasts off as a scorer. I think the odds on that package are overrated at the moment, but I’d rate Branham as a better prospect than, say, Cam Thomas a year ago, and think he’s a worthy gamble in the 20s.

26. Kennedy Chandler | 6-0 freshman | PG | Tennessee

It’s weird to label a 6-0 guard an “upside play,” but the echo chamber on Chandler that he’s just a backup point guard kind of glides past an important question: What if he’s not? Chandler is small, and that will be a problem at the next level, but unlike some other small guards of recent vintage, his defense is an undeniable strength. He’s a handsy defender who pilfered an eye-opening 4.1 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games, and he surprises shooters with his ability to leap and contest shots.

Weirdly, his biggest weakness on defense might just be his lateral movement. He makes an effort to get into the ball and makes sure to force dribblers to beat him into the paint rather than rising up over him for a jumper .. but the first slide is beatable, and because he has to crowd dribblers, they can get a step on him surprisingly often.

Offensively, Chandler’s stroke doesn’t look broken but he still needs to shoot the ball better (60.6 percent from the line — yuck), and he had moments as a shot creator where he had trouble getting separation. Nonetheless, he’s a good passer, plays well in transition and seems likely to benefit from playing in the NBA’s more open floor. That he was one of the best players in the SEC as a 19-year-old is a pretty strong data point in his favor, as was his stellar steal rate (often a great indicator stat for college to pro success).

27. Justin Lewis | 6-6 sophomore | SF | Marquette

Lewis can be frustrating at times: A little too chilled out on defense, a little too jump-shot dependent on offense. I just can’t see how I could rank him any lower than this. He’s 6-6 with an enormous 7-2 wingspan, has a strong frame that should allow him to play four in almost any matchup if his team wants to size down, and he had a 32.5-inch standing vertical.

The basketball stuff went OK too. Lewis shot decently and on relatively high volume, and is very comfortable shooting off the dribble against smaller defenders. He rebounds well and can be a very good defender when in a stance and engaged.

The big thing that puts him at the tail end of my first-round grades, however, is that every team needs switchable forwards who can make an open shot. Lewis doesn’t even need to get that much better to fill in a back-end rotation spot, and he has upside to be quite a bit better.

28. Julian Champagnie | 6-6 junior | SF | St. John’s

Here’s one you probably weren’t expecting. Champagnie isn’t getting much first-round buzz, but I think he’s a name teams need to consider outside the lottery. Champagnie has a bit of a thin frame and can become a little too enamored of jab-step jump shots, something he converts at a respectable rate (34.8 percent from 3 for his career) but maybe that shouldn’t be the focal point of his game. He played a bit as a volume scorer for a weak St. John’s team, but that won’t be his role as a pro.

Instead, Champagnie profiles as a 3-and-D guy who can provide some juice as a secondary rim protector and disruptor. On the ball he likes to get into dribblers, even smaller ones, and used his length and anticipation to nab 3.1 steals per 100 possessions. That was slightly juiced by St. John’s use of pressing defenses, yes, but he’ll pressure the ball even against smaller players and is capable of blocking his own man’s shot. Sometimes that gets him beat — good crossovers leave him grasping for air — but I think he’ll be able to stay with NBA wings.

Tier VIII: Soooo many shooting guards

29. Johnny Davis | 6-4 sophomore | SG | Wisconsin

 

(Benny Sieu / USA Today)

The high-lottery hype for Davis earlier in the year seemed excessive. He was arguably the best player in the Big Ten this year and still fairly young, but beyond that, there are legit questions about how what he does translates to the next level. An excessive reliance on tough shot making and pull-up 2s reveal some refinements that will be helpful at the next level … and a worry about the lack of easy baskets and the iffy jump shot. Davis shot 30.6 percent from 3 and 79.1 percent from the line this season, and the eye test on his jumper is that it starts breaking down the farther from the basket he gets, especially when he has to shoot off the catch.

Davis earns kudos defensively because he competes, fights through screens, rebounds at a high rate and can jump. I’m worried about his feet, though, and that’s the most important piece. He was able to bail himself out at times by using his leaping ability to get challenges on shots where he was beaten to the spot, but he was a step slow laterally. The tape showed plays where even non-prospects were able to turn the corner against him, and he told on himself a bit with the amount of cushion he needed to give to offset his feet.

Overall, he’s still probably the best bet in a sea of blah shooting guards at this point in the draft, with decent odds of becoming a rotation-caliber player and some starter upside if all his midrange stuff translates. But apparently, I have a much harder time getting excited about him than my peers.

30. Trevor Keels | 6-3 freshman | SG | Duke

Keels is built like a tank, had a reasonably good freshman year that included a high steal rate, and his biggest weakness (shooting) is the one thing that is most fixable at the NBA level. He made 31.2 percent from 3 and 69.3 percent from the line, but I wouldn’t say his shot is broken. However, he isn’t a natural distributor either; his assist-turnover ratio from his freshman season reflects that he spent some time at the point, but once he heads to the cup he’s thinking shot. Keels also isn’t a great leaper, relying a little too much on beastball around the basket, and one wonders how that will translate as a pro.

Keels is getting some love for his defense in other descriptions I’ve seen, and I’ve gotta say … I must have been out of town for those games. Keels has a strong body, but I’m not sure he can stay in front of anyone at the next level. He didn’t really get into the ball but still gave up a ton of straight-line drives and wasn’t great at contesting shots at the end of the play either.

That said, let’s not get lost in the weeds here. He doesn’t turn 19 until August and turned in a very solid season as a starter in the ACC. He has a chance, especially if the shooting improves. Also, the Ethan Strauss Memorial Fat Is Potential In Disguise (FIPID) factor comes into play here, as Keels measured with 13.5 percent body fat at the combine.

31. Christian Braun | 6-6 junior | SG | Kansas

Kansas won the national title and Ochai Abgaji was its star, but of the team’s draftable wings I actually like Braun a bit better. He’s not the shooter or scorer Agbaji is, but is bigger and younger, and pops off the floor athletically. Kansas played a conservative defensive scheme so he wasn’t heating up the ball a lot, but he’s very good at challenging shots and even blocking jump shots. At 6-6, he could slot up to the three at times.

Braun can’t rank higher because his shot isn’t completely trustworthy, a low-released push that could use more air under it. He shot 38.6 percent from 3 this past season but on low volume; he’s not letting it rip unless it’s an open catch-and-shoot. He also isn’t the most instinctive or polished finishers around the basket. He’s better in transition, where he can use his athleticism more easily, and he passes willingly. Between all that, he has a decent chance of becoming a rotation-caliber wing with enough size to play some three.

32. Dereon Seabron | 6-5 sophomore | SG | NC State

I think everyone is sleeping on this guy a bit. There are reasons to doubt him: He only measured 6-5, he shot 25.4 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the line in two college seasons, he’s just OK as a passer, and he blocked four shots all of last season.

With all that said … the ability to get to the rim on your own steam in the halfcourt is a pretty important skill, and Seabron has it. His college tape is him getting to the cup with either hand and using long strides to finish at the rim, over and over and over again, and he did the same thing at the combine. His team will need to trust putting the ball in his hands because he’s not spacing the floor, but he can be a plus creator if he develops any kind of shot at all.

Seabron’s defensive tape is pretty good too. He has good size but still will get up on guards, and he rudely dispossesses weaker players. NC State felt confident enough to leave him on an island against Purdue‘s Jaden Ivey, which was probably a stretch; Seabron can be beaten laterally and needs to take better angles, but was a plus one-on-one defender in college who should be fine at that end as a pro.

33. Gabriele Procida | 6-6 | SG | Fortitudo Bologno

In an international field where nearly every alleged prospect for this draft spent the year trashing his draft stock with underwhelming performances in third-tier leagues, Procida stands out as the exception.

We can still nit-pick some things: The Italian League isn’t very good anymore, he wasn’t the best player on the team, etc. But Procida did put up solid numbers as a 20-year-old in a real pro league, and he’s a 6-6 wing with some athleticism (backed up by solid combine testing numbers) and consecutive seasons of shooting 38 percent from 3 under his belt. It’s not hard to see his pathway to NBA viability.

Procida will need to shoot the 3 better and more frequently to make the cut as an NBA sniper, but he’s not that far away and he can be an overseas stash for years if need be, making his selection a promising idea for such teams as the Grizzlies, Thunder and Spurs that are awash in extra draft picks and have some in the 20-35 range.

34. Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 senior | SG | Kansas

The defining case of this year’s shooting guard crop: A really, really good college player who doesn’t offer a lot of excitement for how his game might translate up. At the most basic level, he’s a 6-5 guard who can shoot 3s and won’t beat himself, so getting to back-end-rotation-caliber usefulness wouldn’t be shocking. Anything beyond that would be gravy; there’s just not a lot in his profile that hints at that caliber of player.

In particular, the “indicator” stats of rebounds, assists and steals are all worryingly low for a guard, especially a senior. Despite a 6-10 wingspan, it was hard to find evidence of its use on the floor.

Agbaji can shoot, hitting 40.7 percent of his 3s in 2021-22 on high volume, but don’t get carried away: He’s also a 71.4 percent career foul shooter. As a creator off the dribble, I don’t see much, although he was able to get to pull-ups fairly effectively.

On defense, it’s a similar story. He’s not impactfully as far as getting hands on balls or flying out at shooters on shot contests, and he’s not capable of true ball pressure. However, he’s a good feet-slider who works hard to keep dribblers in front of him and plays angles and scouting reports; it was notable in the tape that he’d crowd some players much tighter than others based on their ability.

Overall, he’s a classic “won’t kill us” guy. But I’m not sure there’s much upside either.

Tier IX: The weirdos

35. Nikola Jović | 6-10 | PF| Mega Basket

It seems like everyone might have gotten out over their skis here. Jović is a 19-year-old forward with perimeter skills and big man size at 6-10, all of which paints an alluring package. He just started shooting 3s this year and made 31.5 percent of them, plus 71.8 percent from the line. Not Steph Curry, exactly, but a nice building point.

The problem is that he played in a not-particularly-great league and … wasn’t good. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player who posted stats this underwhelming in the Adriatic League who became anything of note. Other players from this league who became significant pros (Dario Sarić, Jusuf Nurkić, Nikola Jokić, Bogdan Bogdanović, etc.) were among the better players in this league pretty much immediately, and the NBA of the early 2010s was at a higher level than it is right now.

That doesn’t necessarily exclude Jović from success — players progress at different rates and sometimes they emerge from unexpected corners — but it does make betting on it a much iffier proposition.

36. Kenneth Lofton Jr. | 6-6 junior | PF | Louisiana Tech

The FIPID All-Star of this draft (see Trevor Keels above), Lofton measured at 280 pounds and 15.2 percent body fat at the combine … and people who’d seen him all year remarked on how much better his body looked.

Yes, he has a bit of work to do on that front. But even carrying around the extra tires, Lofton can play. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp and carried that over into a good game at the combine before shutting it down. In particular, he showed perimeter skill in those games that he didn’t get to display at Tech, where he played almost exclusively inside and only made four 3-pointers all year. He was beating defenders with long strides out of jab-and-go moves, making passes off the bounce and showed a soft touch in the paint.

I can’t rank him higher than this due to concerns about his defense. Lofton had decent rates of steals and blocks but is going to need to get in better shape to have a chance at guarding anyone along the perimeter. Nonetheless, I think he’s a great dart throw in the second round.

Lofton, incidentally, is not related to the former baseball star of the same name.

37. Walker Kessler | 7-0 sophomore | C | Auburn

Kessler is a legit 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan, and he blocked everything in sight. A 19.1 percent block rate in the SEC? And 10.0 blocks per 100 possessions? Are you kidding me? Kessler can get to shots with his left or right hand, and sometimes got them with two hands. He wasn’t as comfortable defending in space but he was still pretty good and Auburn was clearly okay with him switching — the dribbler needs to clear a ton of space to get out of his flight path, but Kessler doesn’t change directions fluidly so sometimes he got cooked.

The more vexing part is finding an offense role for him. I don’t see a major threat as a rim runner, but that’s probably his best role; he also dabbled in 3-point shooting but only made 10 of his 50 attempts. Between that and the fact that he plays the least valuable position, it’s hard to get too excited about him in the top part of the board. But he is a freaky shot blocker, and that’s worth something.

38. Ziga Samar | 6-4 | SG/PG | Fuenlabrada

Ziga Samar and Huge Besson are the same age and (roughly) the same size. Samar played in the best domestic league outside the NBA (the Spanish ACB) and put together a pretty strong season, while Besson played in the Australian NBL (not nearly as strong) and was barely adequate. Somehow, Besson got first-round draft hype and an invite to the combine, while Samar was largely ignored.

Samar did keep his name in the draft, however, and hopefully teams have followed up with homework after the fact. It’s possible his shooting numbers this year are an outlier (47.1 percent from 3 this year on 51 attempts, after poor results in previous seasons), that his athletic limitations are too much for the NBA level, or that his rampant fouling torpedoes things (he averaged more than one every seven minutes this past season, which is pretty wild for a guard).

That said, it seems a little batty that a guy with a 7.1 Pure Point Rating in Spain would just get completely ignored like this. At worst, he’s one of the best stash options in the draft.

39. John Butler | 7-0 freshman | SF | Florida State

Are you feeling lucky? He’s 7 feet tall, 18 years old and he shot 39.3 percent from 3. He also made 11 free-throw attempts the entire season and is invisible when he turns sideways. Butler weighed in at an impossible-seeming 174 pounds at the combine, and surely filling him out will be part of any team’s project in taking him on.

Make no mistake, he is a project, but his 3-point shooting offers some pathways to having on-court viability while teams wait. Butler isn’t super athletic, and his motor and feel are both average at best, so there is a lot that has to happen here, but the end game of a 7-foot small forward may be too alluring to pass up in the 30s.

40. David Roddy | 6-5 junior | PF | Colorado State

Grant Williams and P.J. Tucker were the best things that ever happened to Roddy, giving teams a vision of how they might use his rare 255-pound frame and nearly 7-foot wingspan.

Like those two players, Roddy is strong, with thick legs and a wide chest, and knows how to use his frame. He can be a bit slow laterally but will use his strength to cut off angles without fouling; he’s not going to reach or hand check. Although short, Roddy is pretty good at exploding up to challenge shots and will surprise some guys. His lack of height becomes more problematic closer to the rim, where opposing post players could shoot over him with impunity.

Offensively, I’m a believer in Roddy’s catch-and-shoot game (he shot 43.8 percent from 3 this year on low volume, but having watched him warm up before Colorado State’s NCAA Tournament game, I can assure you it wasn’t a fluke). However, he doesn’t bring a lot else to the table right now, and that was on display during his struggles at the combine.

41. MarJon Beauchamp | 6-5 | PF | G League Ignite

Beauchamp has been the recipient of much first-round chatter, which I think is going a bit overboard for what projects to be an energy guy. Beauchamp shot 27.3 percent from 3 and 71.8 percent from the line while mostly playing as an undersized four and was also the same age as most of the sophomores in this draft. It’s not like he destroyed the G League either, registering a 14.7 PER in 24 games.

Beauchamp has a 7-foot wingspan that he can use to stronger effect defensively and on the glass, and that’s why he may be able to get away with playing four in the pros. More skill development could eventually allow him to play three, which is where he would add the most value if he can pull it off.

Tier X: Disappointing one-and-dones

42. JD Davison | 6-3 freshman | PG | Alabama

I get why teams may be down on Davison — he was a hot mess this past year, shooting erratically and not really running the team the way you’d like. That said, the difference between his athleticism and the other available options at this point in the draft is pretty jarring, with a 9.8 percent rebound rate from the point guard spot and multiple instances of easy levitation around the rim.

Davison is also capable of making some incisive passes and running a team; he just tries to do all kinds of crazy stuff on top of it, and the result was a sky-high turnover rate (6.1 per 100 possessions in SEC games).

Davison’s shooting is another question mark. He made 30.8 percent from distance while pushing a line-drive shot from in front of his chest that didn’t always come off his hand clean. He’s going to need a lot of work to make opponents respect his perimeter game, but if he becomes even remotely average, he’ll blow by defenders and open up the rest of his game.

43. Jean Montero | 6-3 | PG | Overtime Elite

We’re at the point in the draft where buying a mystery meat tilts from a negative to a positive, which takes us to Montero. He wowed me when I saw him at the Basketball Without Borders in 2020, which would turn out to be one of the last times I’d see actual basket players in person for quite a while. Since then he’s stalled out a bit, playing this season for Overtime Elite with mostly younger players and not dominating to the extent you’d think.

Montero had a solid Hoop Summit game, but was injured early in the draft combine on-court potion and therefore couldn’t raise his stock there. Measuring 6-1 without shoes, he has to play point guard, and has refined his instincts to play more as a passer and less of a scorer. However, concerns remain about his ability to defend and to finish in traffic, and for a guy with a rep as a shooter, he didn’t shoot all that well this year.

Overall, it’s possible the draft world turned too negative on him, considering he was perceived as a top-20 pick a year ago. He’s a pretty good athlete, he tore up the Spanish second division as a 17-year-old in 2020-21, and he won’t turn 19 until a week after the draft. He’s a good second-round flier.

44. Caleb Houstan | 6-8 freshman | SF | Michigan

Houstan is the more tolerable version of Patrick Baldwin (see below) in some respects, a theoretical big wing shooter who played better basketball than Baldwin this past season but perhaps offered fewer hints of upside.

While Houstan wasn’t actively lighting things on fire the way Baldwin did, he failed to make an impression as a shooter (35.5 percent from 3, 78.3 percent from the line), rebounded like a guard and shot 44.4 percent on 2s in Big Ten games. There were some nights when he was just completely invisible, such as his zero-point, zero-assist, “just cardio” night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

That said, the pieces here are probably worth taking a shot on late in the draft. Houstan is big and his shot isn’t broken. He has just enough perimeter skill to talk yourself into him developing more and becoming a real weapon with his pull-up game. He’s not a plus defender but he’s not toast either; he can stay solid, fight through screens and use his size.

Houstan declined an invite to the combine, so we don’t know his real height and length measurements, but his listed height of 6-8 is believable. That combine refusal also created buzz that he has a promise from some team.

45. Bryce McGowens | 6-5 freshman | SG | Nebraska

McGowens is a tough eval because he played on a horrid Nebraska team where he had to be the main shot creator as a freshman in the Big Ten. He also didn’t help himself with how he played, seemingly in love with floaters despite infrequently converting them, and barely registering at all on defense. I don’t trust his shot eye-test-wise, and he made only 27.4 percent from 3. Finally, he’s dangerously thin and will need to fill out physically.

That said, there’s a toolset here. McGowens can handle the ball and get to the cup, skills that should be better advantaged in an NBA setting, and he drew a ton of fouls. He also hit 83.1 percent from the line, a positive harbinger that he can work out the last few kinks in his low-release delivery.

Overall, the chance for wing shot-creation and half-decent shooting overrides some of the other worries (could you maybe try getting a stop? Once?) at this point in the draft, especially given McGowens’ relative youth.

46. Peyton Watson | 6-7 freshman | SF | UCLA

Watson has an NBA body but has yet to combine it with NBA skill, which is why he struggled to get on the floor for UCLA in his freshman season. He only played 405 minutes and didn’t make much of a case for getting more, posting an 11.2 PER on 39.4 percent true shooting. Watson has to both fix his outside shot and refine his finishing and decision-making in the paint.

The signs are more encouraging on the other side of the ball, where he averaged 5.6 “stocks” per 100 possessions and was a plus rebounder, but he will need to cut back on the fouling (7.6 per 100). The search for big wings who can defend multiple positions is ever-present in the NBA, and that’s why somebody is very likely to roll the dice in the second round on developing Watson.

47. Max Christie | 6-4 freshman | SG | Michigan State

Christie looks the part as a long-armed wing (6-9 wingspan) who moves well and has a nice shooting motion, but the results have yet to catch up to the eye test. Christie’s selling point is as a 3-and-D wing, but the defensive tape isn’t that great. He looks mobile at first glance, but he rarely disrupts the ball, gives too much cushion and still gets beaten by straight-line speed relatively often.

Offensively, he had a limited role, but his play in that role completely justified the decision not to play through him more. Even while being able to cherry-pick what shots he took, Christie made only 31.7 percent of his 3s and 42.9 percent inside the arc. He also had a shockingly poor steal rate (0.9 per 100 possessions in Big Ten games) for an allegedly athletic guard.

The “athletic” part seems very real, though, and Christie’s combine measurements could help his case. He jumped 32.0 inches from a standstill, ripped off a 3.07 sprint, and his plus wingspan helped offset a disappointing height measurement (6-4¼ without shoes).

48. Patrick Baldwin | 6-9 | SF | Wisconsin-Milwaukee

A tall wing with some perimeter skill who teases with talent in between bouts of sleepwalking, Baldwin comes from a proud draft lineage that includes Austin Daye and Kevin Knox. I don’t really see what the excitement is here, but I’m fascinated to see which team will take the plunge. The idea of Baldwin — a big wing with a 7-1 wingspan and deep shooting range — is alluring, but the reality on the court last year was borderline disastrous.

Even in a poor conference, Baldwin was a below-average player, and in ways that don’t augur well for an NBA translation. Athleticism? Heh. He had the worst standing vertical and worst sprint time of any non-center at the combine, and the worst max vertical of anyone there.

The reason to draft him is a belief that his shooting can come around. Baldwin launched 64 3s in his 11 college games but only made 26.6 percent of them; there is a belief based on his AAU play that he’s capable of much better than this. If so, there could be a stretch four hiding in there somewhere.

49. Jaden Hardy | 6-4 | SG | G League Ignite

Hardy is still being talked about as a first-round pick, apparently, even though he was one of the worst players in the G League a year ago. He played 21 games and posted an 8.5 PER and was a traffic cone on defense.

Hardy’s shot is a definite plus, a tight flick off the shoulder that he gets into relatively easily off the dribble, and he has a pretty strong frame. However, that’s where the positives end. His shot selection bordered on disastrous, he’s not an elite athlete and rarely got all the way to the basket, and he pretty clearly isn’t a point guard. He also didn’t do the measurements portion of the combine, and I’m wondering if he’s shorter than his listed 6-4.

Is there something to grab on to here with the youth, the shooting and the frame? Perhaps it’s worth the bite of the apple by this point in the draft, which is why I’ve listed him here, but I’m having a hard time getting excited.

Tier XI: Some more bigs

50. Ismael Kamagate |6-11 | C | Paris Basketball

A classic rim-running five who can block shots and finish in the lane and will never, ever be asked to make a jump shot, Kamagate put together a solid season in a B-minus league as a 21-year-old, including blocking over 6 percent of opponent shots for a second straight season.

He’s slightly built and doesn’t really rebound like a five, plus his instincts as a roller are pretty questionable if he has to do anything besides dunk. Historically, European bigs who became anything in the pros have usually crushed a league like this by their age-21 season; Kamagate didn’t meet that bar. Meanwhile, French leagues historically aren’t great places for player development, either, which puts a dent in his stashability. That said, he has a size-bounciness package that should get his foot in the NBA door, so he’s worth a late-second-round lottery ticket.

51. Christian Koloko | 6-11 junior | C | Arizona

A massive 7-5 wingspan will get you noticed, especially given the improvement Koloko made this season. He had a 10.3 percent block rate and showed enough feel as a distributor to make you not completely hate him as a potential elbow operator. Koloko also made 73.5 percent of his free throws; there is at least a shred of shooting touch to build on. All this probably adds up to a third center with backup upside. That’s not a sexy return on a draft pick any higher than this point, but Koloko certainly is good enough to warrant selection.

52. Jaylin Williams | 6-9 sophomore | C | Arkansas

Williams is smart and a good passer, but too often it felt like he was trying to game the system. He was amazing at taking charges, but that was basically his entire defensive repertoire; can he be something more than Mo Wagner in the NBA? Defensively he would play a hundred feet off the ball and wasn’t great laterally even in closer quarters; any switch against an NBA-caliber guard will result in him conceding on off-the-dribble 3s unless he really tightens up his footwork.

Offensively, he’s crafty, but he’s also undersized, not a great finisher, and only a career 25.5 percent shooter from 3. I have him on here out of deference to his passing and overall basketball IQ, which could end up translating in unexpected ways.

53. Kofi Cockburn | 6-11 junior | C | Illinois

An old-school, broad-shouldered center who just wants to mash in the paint, Cockburn did enough at the combine to show how his game could translate in a backup center role. He can overpower opponents on the glass (20.3 rebound rate in the Big Ten), draws heaps of fouls with his physicality, and can effectively body opposing bigs away from the rim. Defense will be an issue — he has to play in a drop coverage and isn’t much of a shot blocker — but at this point in the draft, he’s a decent gamble.

Tier XII: The best of the rest

53. Andrew Nembhard | 6-3 senior | PG | Gonzaga

 

(James Snook / USA Today)

Nembhard rocketed up draft boards after dominating the final day at the combine, but let’s not get crazy here. We also have four years of game tape from Florida and Gonzaga to see what he is and what he isn’t.

Nembhard can run a team and makes few mistakes, but offensively, his 34.3 percent career shooting and lack of blast-off quickness are unlikely to turn him into a plus weapon. Relative to a player like Tyus Jones, for instance, his college stats are far more underwhelming at both sides of the floor, although Nembhard did boost his steals rate last season and become a more respectable shooter. It’s not crazy to squint and see a Monte Morris-type upside here, but I still think the more likely endgame is as a third point guard.

54. Jabari Walker | 6-7 sophomore | PF | Colorado

Just one of those guys with a nose for the ball. Walker is 6-7 with a 6-10 wingspan and a 28-inch no-step vertical, which should put him at a disadvantage against other power forwards. But despite average tools, he’s a freakishly good rebounder, one who snagged 21.1 percent of missed shots in Pac-12 games this season. While he subsists heavily on second shots and averaged two turnovers for every assist, there’s also enough floor-spacing gravity here (39.9 percent career on a decent total of attempts) to suggest Walker can have value as a bench energizer.

55. Luke Travers | 6-7 | SF | Perth Wildcats

One of my favorite stash candidates, Travers played in the G League Elite Camp and showed enough feel as a passer and secondary ballhandler to think he can make it if his shot straightens out. To this point that’s been the biggest hold-up in him turning into a Joe Ingles-type distributor from the forward spot, because Travers can put it on the deck with either hand and make plays off the dribble. He also rocks a glorious blond mullet straight out of a 1984 Ratt video, which makes every play twice as impressive.

56. Dom Barlow | 6-9 | PF | Overtime Elite

Somebody should select this guy with one of the final picks of the draft and sign him to a two-year two-way; I think he could become a real player in time, but it’s not going to be overnight. He looked lost at times in the draft combine games, but he’s 6-9 with a solid frame and a 7-3 wingspan, and only just turned 19. His performance at OTE this season didn’t suggest insta-stardom or anything, but he was one of the better players there and he may fill out enough to end up being a full-time five.

57. Matteo Spagnolo | 6-4 | SG | Vanoli Cremona

Relative to his fellow Italian Procida (see above), Spagnolo is a better shooter and a year younger, but wasn’t as impressive production-wise, is two inches shorter and a worse athlete. Spagnolo’s 2021-22 shooting splits are eye-popping (44.1 percent from 3 and 86.1 percent from the line), but it’s a small sample (675 minutes, just 68 3-point attempts). and he’s never shot at quite this level before. All of his makes him much better as a stash candidate than as somebody to draft onto a roster, and a good pick late in the second round for teams inclined to wait.

58. Jamaree Bouyea | 6-0 | PG | San Francisco

There’s a lot to nit-pick here if you want. Bouyea is 6-0 in socks, he’ll be 23 at the end of the month, he’s more of a scorer than a distributor, and he shot 33.7 percent from 3 in college. Also, on tape, it was more like Jamaree Blowby, with a reaction time to his first slide measured in lunar years.

And yet … at this point in the draft, an athletic guard with shot-creation and ball-thieving skills seems like a decent proposition. Bouyea is short and can look heavy-footed at times, but he also had an impressive steal rate, sports a 6-7 wingspan and uncorked a 32.5-inch standing jump. He needs to improve his outside shot but has the ability to get to pull-ups with relative ease, as he showed in a 36-point outburst in his team’s NCAA Tournament loss to Murray State. 

Tier XIII: My top two-way guys

Only 58 players will be selected (Miami and Milwaukee forfeited their second-round picks, taking us down from the usual 60), but the after-party is gonna be lit. Teams value their two-way spots more than ever and will be on the phones with undrafted players trying to fill those slots as soon as the draft ends. Here are some of my favorites who didn’t crack the top 58 above:

59. Tyrese Martin | 6-6 senior | SG | Connecticut

Martin had a mostly unremarkable season at UConn, but showed enough versatility at the G League Elite Camp and then the combine to give himself a decent chance of getting drafted. He’s an iffy shooter, but his size, handle and defense, combined with an impressive 39-inch max vertical, give him some pathways toward rotation-ish usefulness as a backup at either wing spot. Martin also rebounds unusually well for a wing, with a 13.0 percent rebound rate in Big East games, checking another box in the positive column.

60. Iverson Molinar | 6-2 junior | PG | Mississippi State

I’ve liked Molinar from the word go because he has first-step quickness that you can’t teach, and that skill tends to blossom in the more open NBA game. He also has a 6-8 wingspan and a 39-inch max vertical.

That said, there is some work to do here. Iverson has improved as a distributor but still plays as a scorer too much; his outside shot also looked increasingly contorted this year as he slumped to 25.2 percent from 3. He’s a career 83.1 percent free-throw shooter so one hopes the 3-ball is salvageable; he has no chance without it. Finally, for a quick, athletic guy, Molinar doesn’t make dribblers feel him much at the defensive end. He needs to be a more active and handsier defender at his size.

All this may be worth a two-way investment because of his potential as a bench scorer; he can scoot.

61. Darius Days | 6-6 senior | PF | LSU

Days is undersized for the four and had a 24-inch no-step vertical, so we’re not off to a good start here. But it’s not that hard to picture him as a high-IQ, no-mistake role player stretching the floor off a team’s bench. He shot 35.3 percent from 3 for his career, but on very high volume for a four, and was crafty enough defensively to nab 3.0 steals per 100 possessions in SEC games.

Given the evolution of the position toward smaller, stretchable, switchable players, and the ability of Days’ 7-1 wingspan to let him play bigger than his height and hops would suggest, he may have a chance.

62. Isaiah Mobley | 6-10 junior | C | USC

I’m a sucker for bigs who can pass because I’m willing to bet their feel level wins out over other limitations. Mobley isn’t nearly as talented as his more famous younger brother, but his 5.8 dimes per 100 possessions and nearly 2:1 assist-turnover rate jump off the page for a college big man. The tape shows several advanced deliveries in the mix, hinting at usefulness off the elbows and, perhaps, above the arc if his nascent 3-point game keeps developing.

Mobley will need to take advantage of the same ability to read the game on the other end, where he was a subpar rebounder even for a college five and a limited rim protector. Between that and his blah athleticism, we’re probably talking about backup five upside, but there are worse two-way gambles you could take.

63. Keon Ellis | 6-4 senior | SG | Alabama 

Ellis was invisible on the court at the combine and measured just 6-3½ in socks (Alabama listed him at 6-6), which probably nuked his chances of getting picked in the top 40, but there is still a 3-and-D package to sell here. Defensively he’s pretty solid — he gets into the ball, has active hands and often took the challenge of checking small, fast guards. He lacks strength in close quarters and sometimes succumbed to quick changes of direction, but he won’t’ be a target on that end of the floor.

Offensively, I don’t love the optics on Ellis’ stroke, but for his career, he made 37.1 percent from 3 on high volume and 83.1 percent from the line, so maybe I should shut up. He needs to show more vitality off the dribble, but he finished chances when he got them.

64. Aminu Mohammed | 6-4 freshman | SG | Georgetown

A one-and-done who isn’t getting much attention despite undeniable athleticism and a 6-11 wingspan, Mohammed may not have enough skill to get by at his height. He held his own on the court at the combine, however, and his rates of rebounds and steals were pretty remarkable.

What wasn’t remarkable was how he did on self-created shots; Mohammed shot only 36.7 percent on 2s in Big East games, and while some of that owes to the general train wreck that was the Hoyas 2021-22 season, Mohammed also has to refine his drives and finishes and hit the open man more often. His shooting is another question mark, at 31.0 percent from 3 on low volume. More often than not, a guy like this tops out as a good G League player, but if the shooting and decision-making come around, Mohammed has more upside than most of the players in this range.

65. Tevin Brown | 6-5 senior | SG | Murray State

I was pretty impressed with Brown when I saw him in person, just because he knows exactly what he is as a player, and that thing has a good chance to translate into a limited NBA role. Brown can shoot with deep range, converting 38.6 percent of his career 3s and owning good footwork coming off pindowns and into catch-and-shoots. He’s much less of a threat off the dribble, although he can get out for the occasional highlight finish on the break and showed good secondary creation as a passer.

Brown has a skinny frame, weighing in at 175 pounds at the combine, but he was a solid enough defender and held his own on the glass. The “3” part of his potential “3-and-D” package is more NBA-ready, and at 24 years old, he’s gonna need to make his mark quickly. But he has a chance.

66. Hyunjung Lee | 6-7 junior | SF | Davidson 

Lee is a great two-way lottery ticket because his potential as a movement shooter with size offers obvious comps to the two-way successes of Max Strus and Duncan Robinson in Miami.

Lee pretty clearly patterns his game after Klay Thompson, moving off the ball for back-cuts and catch-and-shoots but rarely putting it on the deck on his own. He did this well enough to shoot 39.7 percent from 3 for his career on monstrous volume (11.5 3 attempts per 100 possessions) and 82.3 percent from the line; he can shoooooot, y’all.

Lee also measured a legit 6-7 with a 6-9 wingspan at G League Elite Camp, making it easier to envision him playing the 3 and thereby softening concerns about his footspeed. He also rebounded like a 4 in the Atlantic 10 and has a pretty solid build.

That said, his feet are the big question here, because the lateral quickness is suspect, to say the least. The game seemed to zip past him at G League Elite Camp, although he still managed to uncork 15 3-point attempts in 38 minutes, and he’ll be a popular target for opponents.

67. Jordan Hall | 6-7 sophomore | SF | St. Joseph’s 

Hall struggles to score and isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s 6-7, 20 years old and can handle the ball, providing enough intriguing quirkiness to justify a late second-round flier or, more likely, a post-draft call for a two-way. Hall shot 35.8 percent from 3 in his two seasons, and the 3 off the dribble seems to be his go-to because he’s such a shaky scorer inside the arc (41.7 percent on 2s — yikes).

The intriguing part, however, is that Hall also can pass and rebound, with per-100 possession stats nearly in triple-double territory. The passes didn’t always hit their mark — he also had a huge turnover rate, and his role was undoubtedly too high for comfort because he was forced to be the go-to guy for an 11-19 team. But scouts have been talking up Hall since the middle of his freshman season; there is something to build on here.

68. Grayson Murphy | 6-3 senior | PG | Belmont

Pardon me while I pull a name out of left field here. I’ve been intrigued by Murphy ever since I saw him as a freshman, against some guy from Murray State name Ja Morant. I’m not sure whatever happened to that guy, but Murphy is now a 23-year-old, fifth-year senior.

At first, his case isn’t exactly overwhelming. He averaged 7.7 points per game in the Ohio Valley Conference, and he might not really be 6-3 (we don’t know — he wasn’t even invited to the G League Elite Camp, let alone the combine). He’s a 32.2 percent career 3-point marksman on low volume and 57.5 percent from the line.

And yet … he is a good test case for the idea that we spend too much time looking at the scoring columns with prospects and not enough looking at the others. Murphy is an absolute stat-sheet stuffer, rebounding like a power forward, dropping two and a half dimes for every turnover, and swiping an amazing 4.3 steals per 100 possessions.

69. Scotty Pippen Jr. | 6-0 junior | PG | Vanderbilt

Pippen is small, makes too many turnovers and isn’t a great shooter. The first thing isn’t fixable, but one of the other two needs to change for Pippen to establish himself as an NBA point guard. Either is possible, and neither is likely.

If he can turn the corner, though, there are some things to like here. Pippen is small but will heat up the ball on defense (3.7 steals per 100 in SEC games) and was a constant pest in the combine games. He gets downhill to the basket easily, and while his decision-making at that point needs to improve, he draws heaps of fouls (a ridiculous 16.3 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions in SEC play). He’s not a shooter, but the shot isn’t what you’d call broke neither; he made 34.3 percent from 3 for his career.

Most guys like this have NBA careers measured in 10-day increments, but on a two-way, Pippen has a chance to be more if he can clean up some of his rough edges.

70. Alondes Williams | 6-4 junior | PG | Wake Forest 

Has the ACC player of the Year ever gone undrafted before? Williams is huge for a point guard, has a good first step, rebounds like a wing and can jump. However, he’s an erratic shooter (27.0 percent from 3 for his career) and too often dribbled into crowds and/or threw passes into the seventh row. He’s capable of some impressive looks when he’s running well, and when he gets downhill he can use his size and hops to finish at the cup, but the overall package ends up being pretty inefficient.

Williams is an amazing story, coming from a backup role at Oklahoma to improbably win ACC player of the year for one of the league’s lesser lights, but he’s 23 and will need to play very differently as a pro. I’m not sure this story ends in more than a two-way.

71. Michael Foster | 6-8 | PF/C | G League Ignite

Foster got lots of reps in his gap year with the Ignite, and he was … serviceable. Fine. He can score a fair amount for a big, with a solid midrange game that could stretch out to the 3-point line in time. However, he is an average athlete and is rather undersized for the five at the NBA levels, which would force him into defending fours … which I’m not sure he can really do.

Foster has some shot-blocking instincts and is pretty long for his height (7-0 wingspan); that and a real 3-point shot might make him threatening enough to establish a career as a frontcourt reserve. He’s 19 and was a decent player in the G League last year, which is a good starting point for him to become … something. What that something is remains to be seen.

72. Justin Bean | 6-7 senior | PF | Utah State

Bean has one giant red flag: he is 25 and will turn 26 the first month of the season. I only know this because I was his backup in high school.

Seriously, Bean is one of the oldest straight-from-college rookies the league has ever seen, thanks mostly to a two-year Mormon mission, and that likely nukes any chance of somebody using a draft pick on him.

But as a two-way, I think he might be able to help a team immediately. Bean can really jump and is a tremendous out-of-area rebounder, he shot 46.5 percent from 3 (on low volume) and 80.0 percent from the line, and he has the mobility to defend along the perimeter. Obviously, nobody is signing him for long-term upside, but contenders with an open two-way should look at him.

73. Orlando Robinson | 6-10 junior | C | Fresno State

I have trouble getting excited about centers, but Robinson has a 7-4 wingspan and enough skill to be at least somewhat interesting as a developmental big. He can be a bit slow and plodding defensively, but he made 37 3-pointers in 36 games and knows what he’s doing on the block. While I have a hard time talking myself into him being anything better than mediocre on defense, there is enough here offensively to take a flier on him.

74. Kam McGusty | 6-4 senior | SG | Miami 

McGusty is the perimeter answer to Justin Bean, a 24-year-old “veteran” who turns 25 this fall, and was one of the best players in the ACC this year in his sixth – yes, sixth – college season. McGusty had a disappointing G League Elite Camp and measured an inch shorter than his listed height, which combined with his age might have been enough for teams to write him off.

They shouldn’t, though. He shoots better than his 34.0 percent career mark would lead you to believe, and is very comfortable attacking bigs off switches and getting into pull-ups off the dribble. He’s a strong, handsy defender, too, posting high steal rates each of the past two seasons, and his solid frame should help him at the next level. As with Bean above, I think a contending team in need of immediate help should look at him for a two-way spot.

75. Bryson Williams | 6-9 senior | PF | Texas Tech

He’s 24, so again, don’t get your hopes too high. He’s a limited athlete, too, which means he probably has to be a stretch four rather than a five. That said, Williams can probably help somebody right now on a two-way. He has a 7-2 wingspan, finishes catches around the basket and added enough 3-point juice last season (41.7 percent, on reasonable volume) to have legitimate stretch possibilities. He was arguably the best player at the G League Elite Camp, earning his way into the main combine, and last season was one of the key players on the nation’s second-best defense.

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did Hollinger already release the preamble to his rankings some times ago? because i remember having read all of that part already.

also, damn- he's really dampened my view on Holmgren with his analysis. to this point i've felt like Jabari and Ivey would be the two guys i'd take ahead of him, but now he's got me looking at Banchero and even some of the wing players as safer bets. good stuff there.

[Aqua Buddha 14625]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

I'll laugh if Okie City takes Ivey at #2.  They very well may.  Does anyone here think Ivey doesn't have the biggest potential upside of anyone in this draft?  I don't.