AFC: Bills v Chiefs

[DougO 5239]

The problem is not the OT rules, it's that the NFL has become too much like NBA All Star games. 

I miss football.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

4 minutes ago, DougO said:

The problem is not the OT rules, it's that the NFL has become too much like NBA All Star games. 

I miss football.

Did you miss the GB/49ers game or the Titans game? There was defense being played by some teams.

[SA-KC_Horn 1295]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Great coverage for the Bills all day except when it counted. Both of those passes were wide open and easy tosses.

OTOH, the Chief's safeties had issues all day. The Bill's drive, despite the 4th down conversions, were pretty fucking easy - The Chiefs gave up long passes to the center of the field all game long.

Honey Badger taking a knee to the head was tipped the scales to Buffalo favor. Luckily, the secondary held together like old scotch tape.

[Guadaloopy 10926]

NFL OT rules will not change any more than they did with Last tweak.   Deal with it.  The league has a vested interest in keeping games right at the three hour mark.  Almost all NFL games are on national non-sports centered networks that lead in to prime time TV.   NFL has to keep the assembly line moving from the 1 pm games into the 4pm games and then into prime time TV.   Some form of near-sudden death OT is the only way to keep OT games closer to that three hour threshold.   

[utxmike05 1825]

OT rule sucks.  Screw all the "play some defense!" and "they gave up points in 13 seconds at end of game" noise.  That is just noise from Chiefs fans or Bills haters. Regardless if Bills happened to be the team that allowed a tie in regulation....both teams deserve a chance to run their offense one more time after playing an awesome game that resulted in a tie in regulation. 

It could have just as easily been the Chiefs that allowed the Bills to tie it at the end of regulation.  Chiefs defense was not stopping Bills wither, Mahomes just happened to get the ball last...Bills probably score in 13 secs also.. 

Great fukin game though.

 

/neutral fan

[Guadaloopy 10926]

21 minutes ago, DougO said:

The problem is not the OT rules, it's that the NFL has become too much like NBA All Star games. 

I miss football.

As already mentioned, the two games on Saturday had no teams scoring over 20 pts.  Yesterday’s games only saw one team score over 40 pts.  And the two teams that scored more than 30 pts have the best two QBs in the game as far as athletic talent goes. 

 

[Steel Shank 9415]

I came from behind at your momma's house last night.

[DiceHands 349]

The NFL OT rules are fucking dumb as fuck.  I looked into the past 10 OT playoffs games since the rule change in 2011.

1) 9/10 games had the coin toss winner as the game winner

2) 7/10 games ended in walk off TDs, 3/10 had both teams possess the ball at least once.

3) Out of those 3/10 with dual possessions, only one time did the team that lost the coin toss won the game (NO vs LA when Brees threw that INT).  

Here is the data (note, the X = walk off TD) 

2011: Denver Broncos 29–23 (OT) Pittsburgh Steelers - X -  Denver Won Coin Toss - Denver Wins Game
2011: New York Giants 20–17 (OT) San Francisco 49ers - Giants Won Coin Toss - Giants Win Game
2014: Seattle Seahawks 28–22 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Seahawks Won Coin Toss - Seahawks Win Game
2015: Arizona Cardinals 26–20 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Cardinals Won Coin Toss - Cardinals Win Game
2017: New England Patriots 34-28 (OT) Atlanta Falcons - X - NE won coin toss - NE wins game
2018: Los Angeles Rams 26–23 (OT) New Orleans Saints - Saints Won Coin Toss - RAMS won game (brees threw a pick on their first drive)
2019: Houston Texans 22–19 (OT) Buffalo Bills - Texans Won Toss - Texans won game
2019: Minnesota Vikings 26–20 (OT) New Orleans Saints - X - Vikings won toss - Vikings won game
2019: New England Patriots 37–31 (OT) Kansas City Chiefs - X - Patriots Won Toss - Patriots won game
2021: Kansas City Chiefs 42–36 (OT) Buffalo Bills - X - Chiefs won Toss - Chiefs won game

 

Pretty fucking abysmal if you ask me.  90% of the time, the coin toss winner wins the game.  30% of the time both teams possessed the ball, and only 10% of the games had the coin toss loser winning the game.  Not even close to a 50/50 decision.

Edited January 24, 2022 by DiceHands

[Guest]

1 hour ago, DougO said:

The problem is not the OT rules, it's that the NFL has become too much like NBA All Star games. 

I miss football.

9 sacks by Tennessee and they lost.  Never have seen 9 blocks in an NBA all-star game.  That's a semi-equivilent of efforting on the defensive side of the ball.

The final score of GB vs SF was 24 points UNDER the betting total of 47.

Edited January 24, 2022 by slorch

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

The OT rules, modified in 2012 to give a possession to the other team but only if there is no TD (FG or no score) on the first possession, need to be further modified.

We need two ‘innings’ in NFL OT and then a sudden death.  An initial TD, at the top of the first, should not be sudden death.

It goes like this

7 3 Any Score sudden death

7 3 Any Score sudden death

Also, need to be 15 minutes, no reason to have 10 minutes which never made any sense to me.

[conVINCEd 21468]

31 minutes ago, DiceHands said:

The NFL OT rules are fucking dumb as fuck.  I looked into the past 10 OT playoffs games since the rule change in 2011.

1) 9/10 games had the coin toss winner as the game winner

2) 7/10 games ended in walk off TDs, 3/10 had both teams possess the ball at least once.

3) Out of those 3/10 with dual possessions, only one time did the team that lost the coin toss won the game (NO vs LA when Brees threw that INT).  

Here is the data (note, the X = walk off TD) 

2011: Denver Broncos 29–23 (OT) Pittsburgh Steelers - X -  Denver Won Coin Toss - Denver Wins Game
2011: New York Giants 20–17 (OT) San Francisco 49ers - Giants Won Coin Toss - Giants Win Game
2014: Seattle Seahawks 28–22 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Seahawks Won Coin Toss - Seahawks Win Game
2015: Arizona Cardinals 26–20 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Cardinals Won Coin Toss - Cardinals Win Game
2017: New England Patriots 34-28 (OT) Atlanta Falcons - X - NE won coin toss - NE wins game
2018: Los Angeles Rams 26–23 (OT) New Orleans Saints - Saints Won Coin Toss - RAMS won game (brees threw a pick on their first drive)
2019: Houston Texans 22–19 (OT) Buffalo Bills - Texans Won Toss - Texans won game
2019: Minnesota Vikings 26–20 (OT) New Orleans Saints - X - Vikings won toss - Vikings won game
2019: New England Patriots 37–31 (OT) Kansas City Chiefs - X - Patriots Won Toss - Patriots won game
2021: Kansas City Chiefs 42–36 (OT) Buffalo Bills - X - Chiefs won Toss - Chiefs won game

 

Pretty fucking abysmal if you ask me.  90% of the time, the coin toss winner wins the game.  30% of the time both teams possessed the ball, and only 10% of the games had the coin toss loser winning the game.  Not even close to a 50/50 decision.

Use the college OT rules, except start at the 35 instead of the 25, to account for the better kickers in the NFL.  A sack or penalty should put the field goal in serious doubt if the offense is unable to make up the lost yardage.  In the postseason, there should be no alternating 2 pt.  conversions as they progress through the OT periods, but that would be ok during the regular season for the sake of expediting the conclusion of the game.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Use the college OT rules, except start at the 35 instead of the 25, to account for the better kickers in the NFL.  A sack or penalty should put the field goal in serious doubt if the offense is unable to make up the lost yardage.  In the postseason, there should be no alternating 2 pt.  conversions as they progress through the OT periods, but that would be ok during the regular season for the sake of expediting the conclusion of the game.

Just add another shortened quarter to the game. A 7:30 "5th Quarter" or 10 minutes.

[BluTechsan 393]

Both defense were completely gassed last night so I understand the NFL wanting to limit the length of OT and thus the opportunity for the walk-off TD

But I the coin flip aspect up the current system just really leaves you feeling unsatisfied.

As stated above, I'd be ok with some sort of real time stats to decide which team gets the coveted first possession.

 

Last night, even after adjusting for the yards gained in OT, the Chiefs had

- more total yds

- more rush yds

- more pass yds

- more first downs

- more total plays

- more yds per play

I was kinda surprised when I saw those numbers as I thought the Chiefs D played horribly and felt bad that Josh missed the opportunity to get the ball again. But now, all things being equal, I can say that Pat deserved to get the ball first.

 

[MIkeHoncho 1896]

1 hour ago, Steel Shank said:

I came from behind at your momma's house last night.

in 13 seconds.

[Texzilla58 4717]

The OT rules, modified in 2012 to give a possession to the other team but only if there is no TD (FG or no score) on the first possession, need to be further modified.
We need two ‘innings’ in NFL OT and then a sudden death.  An initial TD, at the top of the first, should not be sudden death.
It goes like this
7 3 Any Score sudden death
7 3 Any Score sudden death
Also, need to be 15 minutes, no reason to have 10 minutes which never made any sense to me.

I think the OT rules for regular season are fine. The networks are not interested in longer games, and neither is the NFLPA. Or do away with regular season OT and allow ties.

In playoffs I would go to a modified college structure, scrimmage from the 30 and eliminate kicked PATs.

It’s about time to eliminate kickoffs. Just start from the 25 with a kickoff option of a 4th and 15 to replace the now impossible onside kick.

[youdunnf'dup 2147]

The NFL record for passing tds in a postseason is 11. Josh Allen had 9 in two games and he’s going home when he had one of, if not the best defense in the regular season. That’s pretty wild. Allen is a fucking stud. I might take him over any other young qb including Mahomes. I think he’s that good. 

[Hate 20103]

I am over Mahomes/Chiefs.  They aren't smug / assholes that you can hate like Patriots used to be...but they remind me of Curry & GS Warriors.   I'm just tired of them.   

This is where I am as well. I’m tired of seeing them for some reason. I’ll be cheering for the Bengals next weekend.

[Bateshorn 9905]

28 minutes ago, Texzilla58 said:

I think the OT rules for regular season are fine. The networks are not interested in longer games, and neither is the NFLPA. Or do away with regular season OT and allow ties.

In playoffs I would go to a modified college structure, scrimmage from the 30 and eliminate kicked PATs.

It’s about time to eliminate kickoffs. Just start from the 25 with a kickoff option of a 4th and 15 to replace the now impossible onside kick.

I could live with this, particularly the KO elimination and 4 and 15 option I lieu of onside kicks. 

[Carl Spackler 3461]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Just add another shortened quarter to the game. A 7:30 "5th Quarter" or 10 minutes.

Who gets the ball first in that shortened quarter?

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Carl Spackler said:

Who gets the ball first in that shortened quarter?

Coin flip, just like at the start of the game. But with that length of time, both teams should get a chance with the ball. 

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

1 hour ago, Texzilla58 said:

I think the OT rules for regular season are fine. The networks are not interested in longer games, and neither is the NFLPA. Or do away with regular season OT and allow ties.

In playoffs I would go to a modified college structure, scrimmage from the 30 and eliminate kicked PATs.

It’s about time to eliminate kickoffs. Just start from the 25 with a kickoff option of a 4th and 15 to replace the now impossible onside kick.

like the 4th and 15 idea a lot, maybe study it a bit to see if 20 or 25 would be closer to the old days success % when onsides worked more frequently. 

Also, eliminate the KO is a good idea, especially for injuries. 

I modified my idea a little -- in the 2nd inning the offense of the bottom of the 1st starts the top , a switch, just like college.  That way the coin toss bias is eliminated and you still get a bottom of the 2nd.

[Pam Cummings 9582]

3 hours ago, DiceHands said:

The NFL OT rules are fucking dumb as fuck.  I looked into the past 10 OT playoffs games since the rule change in 2011.

1) 9/10 games had the coin toss winner as the game winner

2) 7/10 games ended in walk off TDs, 3/10 had both teams possess the ball at least once.

3) Out of those 3/10 with dual possessions, only one time did the team that lost the coin toss won the game (NO vs LA when Brees threw that INT).  

Here is the data (note, the X = walk off TD) 

2011: Denver Broncos 29–23 (OT) Pittsburgh Steelers - X -  Denver Won Coin Toss - Denver Wins Game
2011: New York Giants 20–17 (OT) San Francisco 49ers - Giants Won Coin Toss - Giants Win Game
2014: Seattle Seahawks 28–22 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Seahawks Won Coin Toss - Seahawks Win Game
2015: Arizona Cardinals 26–20 (OT) Green Bay Packers - X - Cardinals Won Coin Toss - Cardinals Win Game
2017: New England Patriots 34-28 (OT) Atlanta Falcons - X - NE won coin toss - NE wins game
2018: Los Angeles Rams 26–23 (OT) New Orleans Saints - Saints Won Coin Toss - RAMS won game (brees threw a pick on their first drive)
2019: Houston Texans 22–19 (OT) Buffalo Bills - Texans Won Toss - Texans won game
2019: Minnesota Vikings 26–20 (OT) New Orleans Saints - X - Vikings won toss - Vikings won game
2019: New England Patriots 37–31 (OT) Kansas City Chiefs - X - Patriots Won Toss - Patriots won game
2021: Kansas City Chiefs 42–36 (OT) Buffalo Bills - X - Chiefs won Toss - Chiefs won game

 

Pretty fucking abysmal if you ask me.  90% of the time, the coin toss winner wins the game.  30% of the time both teams possessed the ball, and only 10% of the games had the coin toss loser winning the game.  Not even close to a 50/50 decision.

Man its funny how nobody whined about any of those results, except for the ones where Brady won, and the one where Mahomes beat the lovable loser Bills.

 

I literally dont remember anyone saying the rules were unfair any of the other times. The rule before was what was unfair where the team who won the coin flip only had to get a FG to win. It's more than fair now.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Pam Cummings

[4th&Five 41461]

If your team lost one of those you would definitely remember it and the talk afterwards about how stupid the nfl ot is.

[gernblansten 3188]

I hate the whining about "fairness".  There are 4 quarters to win the game.  Win the game in regulation and don't leave it up to a coin toss.  Or, if you lose the coin toss, maybe force a punt since defense is a pretty big part of the game. 

[Pam Cummings 9582]

6 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

If your team lost one of those you would definitely remember it and the talk afterwards about how stupid the nfl ot is.

Yeah but think about how bad the logic is. "The defenses were gassed! The last team with the ball was gonna win!" OK....so the Chiefs went down and scored....meaning that the Bills would have had to answer....and if they did, then the Chiefs would have just needed a FG to win. We really dont believe the result would be the same? 

 

So either way the coin flip benefits the team who wins it.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Pam Cummings

[4th&Five 41461]

or the bills go for 2

[Pam Cummings 9582]

18 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

or the bills go for 2

If they changed the rules to let both teams have a chance, going for 2 should be the requirement.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Pam Cummings

[DiceHands 349]

1 hour ago, Pam Cummings said:

Man its funny how nobody whined about any of those results, except for the ones where Brady won, and the one where Mahomes beat the lovable loser Bills.

 

I literally dont remember anyone saying the rules were unfair any of the other times. The rule before was what was unfair where the team who won the coin flip only had to get a FG to win. It's more than fair now.

I dont have a dog in the fight, and I can even admit that the OT rules in the playoffs are fucking stupid.  90% of the time the coin toss winner wins.  That isnt a good system.

[C-Man 27058]

I dont have a dog in the fight, and I can even admit that the OT rules in the playoffs are fucking stupid.  90% of the time the coin toss winner wins.  That isnt a good system.

Close. It’s currently 52.8% under the new rules.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/platform/amp/2022/1/24/22899288/nfl-overtime-rules-coin-flip-odds-win-loss-playoffs-regular-season

(That said, last night was probably 100%.)

[C-Man 27058]

[AeroHorn 735]

2 hours ago, gernblansten said:

I hate the whining about "fairness".  There are 4 quarters to win the game.  Win the game in regulation and don't leave it up to a coin toss.  Or, if you lose the coin toss, maybe force a punt since defense is a pretty big part of the game. 

All fair points, but in a tie game, this point applies to both teams; so why favor one team with the coin toss? Agreed that defense is a big part of the game, so why is the coin-toss-winning team's defense not tested? Both teams played to a tie and both teams' offense and defense should be made to play.

I prefer NFL's OT to college football's version with the only addition that both teams get at least one possession, with the rest of the rules including sudden death with a TD or more points with equal possessions be the same. College football's OT is cute but not really a football game but more to reduce extra playing time through quick scores that doesn't always work.

Edited January 24, 2022 by AeroHorn

[Huckleberry 32703]

Just now, AeroHorn said:

All fair points, but in a tie game, this point applies to both teams; so why favor one team with the coin toss? Agreed that defense is a big part of the game, so why is the coin-toss-winning team's defense not tested? Both teams played to a tie and both teams' offense and defense should be made to play.

I like NFL's OT to college football's version with the only addition that both teams get one possession, with the rest of the rules including sudden death with a TD or more points with equal possessions be the same. College football's OT is cute but not really a football game but more to reduce extra playing time through quick scores that doesn't always work.

How does that help in a game where everyone is certain that each team is going to score at will in overtime? College's system guarantees the same number of possessions for each team and is the only way that people wouldn't complain about unfairness. The NFL could modify the starting position to the 50 yard line or something so that field goal attempts aren't guaranteed (unless you have Justin Tucker and at least a 5mph breeze at your back).

[Surly Bevo 24696]

2 hours ago, gernblansten said:

I hate the whining about "fairness".  There are 4 quarters to win the game.  Win the game in regulation and don't leave it up to a coin toss.  Or, if you lose the coin toss, maybe force a punt since defense is a pretty big part of the game. 

Right.  The teams were basically even but it had to be settled.  Any system that keeps the rules of play the same (ie not like college where all of a sudden there is no kickoffs, punts, etc) short of the soccer/hockey just play another "period" is going to seem arbitrary drawing of a line.  Let's say Buffalo gets it back last night, scores a TD and XP.  Now what?  Oh NOW Sudden Death is ok...get the fuck out of here with that logic.  It's still an arbitrary line to end it.  Unless you want a baseball "inning" system like college has it's always gonna be that way. 

 

[AeroHorn 735]

13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

How does that help in a game where everyone is certain that each team is going to score at will in overtime? College's system guarantees the same number of possessions for each team and is the only way that people wouldn't complain about unfairness. The NFL could modify the starting position to the 50 yard line or something so that field goal attempts aren't guaranteed (unless you have Justin Tucker and at least a 5mph breeze at your back).

If it is certain that teams will score easily in overtime due to fatigue, etc., then all the more reason to (i) ensure each team gets at least one possession and (ii) face an extended field to not make the scoring as "certain". A simplistic approach would be to have an extra quarter but there is a chance of tie too. If scoring is still easy with an extended field too, then giving equal possessions takes away the incentive to stop a TD from being scored. If team A scores FG/TD, team B scores the same FG/TD, and team A scores TD, giving the ball to team B again may seem "fair" but it takes away from the football aspect of trying to keep the ball away from the opponent, clock management, etc. that happens at the end of each halves.

Edited January 25, 2022 by AeroHorn

[DiceHands 349]

30 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Close. It’s currently 52.8% under the new rules.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/platform/amp/2022/1/24/22899288/nfl-overtime-rules-coin-flip-odds-win-loss-playoffs-regular-season

(That said, last night was probably 100%.)

Regular season can remain as is for all I care.  We talking playoffs!

Post 2011 rule change, playoffs only = 90% to win.  Only 1 time did the coin toss loser win the game (NO vs LA 2018).  

As your article states, it is a small sample size.  But when you consider for the past decade, the coin toss winner wins the game 90% of the time, that is all I need to hear. 

Edited January 25, 2022 by DiceHands

[C-Man 27058]

2011 onward is really all that matters here as that is when the rules changed.  Looking at anything before 2011 is irrelevant now as it only took a walk off FG to win back then, skewing results.  Regular season can remain as is for all I care.  We talking playoffs!
Post 2011 rule change, playoffs only = 90% to win.  Only 1 time did the coin toss loser win the game (NO vs LA 2018).  

Makes sense. But seven of those 11 playoff games didn’t end on the very first drive.

[C-Man 27058]

College OT rules suck shut through a straw BTW.

[shadow_operative 15932]

11 minutes ago, DiceHands said:

Regular season can remain as is for all I care.  We talking playoffs!

Post 2011 rule change, playoffs only = 90% to win.  Only 1 time did the coin toss loser win the game (NO vs LA 2018).  

As your article states, it is a small sample size.  But when you consider for the past decade, the coin toss winner wins the game 90% of the time, that is all I need to hear. 

yup, the coin toss winner is 10-1 in the playoffs in that time. that's a hard pill to swallow for the team that lost the toss. 

[MontereyMX 848]

1 minute ago, shadow_operative said:

yup, the coin toss winner is 10-1 in the playoffs in that time. that's a hard pill to swallow for the team that lost the toss. 

really simple, get better at the toss!!

[Doctor of Neighborhood 429]

1 minute ago, shadow_operative said:

yup, the coin toss winner is 10-1 in the playoffs in that time. that's a hard pill to swallow for the team that lost the toss. 

Should’ve slept with a coin under their pillow and practiced those tosses with more intensity.

[DiceHands 349]

2 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

yup, the coin toss winner is 10-1 in the playoffs in that time. that's a hard pill to swallow for the team that lost the toss. 

just hire george bush sr to toss for you

[Your Mom 4797]

Just eliminate the coin toss and make the decider something teams have control over. Team with the fewest turnovers gets the ball first, sudden death. Or the most total yards. Or fewest penalty yards. There’s a million things they could use instead of a coin toss. 

[AeroHorn 735]

Or we can treat OT as an extension and continue with the team that had the ball at the end of the regulation.

Edit: It will make for an interesting decision near the end whether to play slow, go for OT and give the other team a chance to get the ball or score now and end the game.

Edited January 25, 2022 by AeroHorn
more surly

[Surly Bevo 24696]

How about like soccer play one added period of 10 minutes and if still tied at the end of that set up a flaming ring on the goal line and each team gets 5 throws and 5 kicks at it from the 35 yard line.  Throws through the ring worth a point each, any kick through the flaming ring worth 3 points.  

[MontereyMX 848]

Just now, Surly Bevo said:

How about like soccer play one added period of 10 minutes and if still tied at the end of that set up a flaming ring on the goal line and each team gets 5 throws and 5 kicks at it from the 35 yard line.  Throws through the ring worth a point each, any kick through the flaming ring worth 3 points.  

how bout you never mention futbol on a football board again!?!? lololol

[Underdog 28457]

Start OT XFL style with a scrum at midfield.  

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

game replay on right now on NFL Network at the Q4 2:30 mark, just when it goes off 

[Had Enough 2057]

Regular season can remain as is for all I care.  We talking playoffs!
Post 2011 rule change, playoffs only = 90% to win.  Only 1 time did the coin toss loser win the game (NO vs LA 2018).  
As your article states, it is a small sample size.  But when you consider for the past decade, the coin toss winner wins the game 90% of the time, that is all I need to hear. 

You need to dig deeper. And not totally sure why you’d exclude regular season. 52% is not necessarily a decided advantage. Even the playoff numbers say 25% (maybe 36%) of the time, it goes at least 3 possessions.

Even in college the coin flip gives a decided advantage. So if you give equal possessions, it is still flawed. The team with the ball second basically gets an extra down if they choose to take it. If the first team clanks a FG, team 2 can go conservative. Or if they score a TD, they have better info in that decision on whether to go for 2. How much does a chance of a TD go up when you only have to travel 25 or 35 yards versus 75? It should drop quite a bit then the advantage switches once a stop is made.

Play a full quarter? The receiving team still has an advantage. It’s very possible they get one more possession or that team 2’s last possession is decidedly hurried.

There’s no perfect system for this. There is merit to ending it as quickly as possible for the players health.

[mdleast 8262]

[Richard Kimball 1492]

3 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Just eliminate the coin toss and make the decider something teams have control over. Team with the fewest turnovers gets the ball first, sudden death. Or the most total yards. Or fewest penalty yards. There’s a million things they could use instead of a coin toss. 

Have the head coaches arm wrestle.