Geopolitics of Guacamole: Hope NBC Gave a Force Majure Refund

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

U.S. officials suspended imports of avocados from Mexico on the eve of Super Bowl LVI after a U.S. plant safety inspector received a threat, The Associated Press reported. 

"U.S. health authorities ... made the decision after one of their officials, who was carrying out inspections in Uruapan, Michoacan, received a threatening message on his official cellphone," Mexico's Agriculture Department said in a statement. 

The statement added that imports were suspended "until further notice."

The ban comes during a peak sales opportunity for the Mexican avocado growers, though the AP noted that it would have little impact on Super Bowl sales as those avocados had already been shipped. 

The Mexican avocado growers and packers association will again air a Super Bowl ad this year, as it has for the past decade in an effort to make guacamole a game-day tradition.

Mexico's avocado export industry has fallen victim to drug cartel war battles and extortion of avocado growers in the state of Michoacan, the only Mexico state to be fully authorized to export into the U.S., the AP reported. 

Many avocado growers in Michoacan have said drug cartels have threatened them or their family members with kidnapping or death unless they pay them protection money, which could cost up to thousands of dollars per acre. 

A team of Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services inspectors was previously threatened by the cartel in August 2019, leading the USDA to warn in a letter about possible consequences of attacking or threatening U.S. inspectors, the AP noted.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/594063-us-suspends-avocado-imports-from-mexico-after-threat-to-inspector?amp

 

[Guest Lobo]

So for the foreseeable future, avocados are toast?  

[Nuge 1987]

[Telegraph_it 3359]

Smart restaurant. 

[Orange&White 5539]

What is an acceptable level of collateral damage here?

One or two inspectors get their legs broken but we can still eat our avocados, or nah?

[Sawbonz 27605]

This aggression will not stand man

[BabaYaga 15330]

[Underdog 28795]

Like the window to eat a ripe avocado wasn't small enough we now have to deal with this shit? 

[Chooky 13319]

It has never made sense to expect Mexico to get its shit together, but they really need to get their shit together.  Billion dollar agricultural industries are being disrupted by morons with tattoos on their face.  They're begging for a brief military occupation.  

[Pato del Muerto 52619]

[BabaYaga 15330]

3 minutes ago, Chooky said:

They're begging for a brief military occupation.  

That would be bad.  Really, really bad

[TKthunder2 4999]

1 minute ago, Chooky said:

It has never made sense to expect Mexico to get its shit together, but they really need to get their shit together.  Billion dollar agricultural industries are being disrupted by morons with tattoos on their face.  They're begging for a brief military occupation.  

We’ll need to conquer the Canadians before we start our invasion of Ole Mexico.  The sneaky canucks won’t hesitate for a minute to stab us in the back the second we let our guard down.  Next thing you’ll know we’ll have our East Texas rednecks tapping pine trees looking for syrup while drunk on Labatt Blue talking about hockey.  Is that the kind of world you want to live it…fuck avocados.

[CooterBrown 18033]

Well, now I’m not complaining H‑E‑B gave me two bags of avocados, instead of one, in my order today.

I’ll let them go for 1 Bitcoin apiece.

[RDCanecutter 26476]

15 minutes ago, Chooky said:

It has never made sense to expect Mexico to get its shit together, but they really need to get their shit together.  

It's gonna happen any day now. AMLO is pretending all the problems away.

[Pescado_Rojo 19435]

S2 E1 of the Netflix series "Rotten" is called "The Avocado War". Pretty good deep dive on the problems the Avocado farmers face from the cartels. 

[Armybrat 40924]

27 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

That would be bad.  Really, really bad

Just think of the outburst of terrorism that would result around the US.

[F250 28826]

1 hour ago, Orange&White said:

What is an acceptable level of collateral damage here?

One or two inspectors get their legs broken but we can still eat our avocados, or nah?

[Pato del Muerto 52619]

It’s time to bring all of our National avocado needs in-house. Good thing Texans as a group enjoy California and would never piss off Californians or get in a trade war over politics. 

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

2 hours ago, Chooky said:

It has never made sense to expect Mexico to get its shit together, but they really need to get their shit together.  Billion dollar agricultural industries are being disrupted by morons with tattoos on their face.  They're begging for a brief military occupation.  

Funny enough ... was listening to a guy on a podcast today that made this point. He basically said with all the political risk posed by China, the U.S. and its companies should create a robust, sustainable partnership with Mexico to shift a ton of high tech, pharmaceutical, etc., manufacturing from China to Mexico. It seems like such a simple, smart idea that it makes too much sense. Costs are probably comparable plus significantly reduce shipping costs, and it might be handy if there ever was a global supply chain disruption.

Just riffing, but I suppose the primary headwind is the stability of the government and the cartels. Would have to get the government in order and just go Ozark on the cartels.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Harrison Bergeron

[Neonmoon 38130]

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

S2 E1 of the Netflix series "Rotten" is called "The Avocado War". Pretty good deep dive on the problems the Avocado farmers face from the cartels. 

Good call. It’s basically it’s own cartel

[Dewey 3296]

I'm good for 4 days, how long will this last? And who's the asshole that sent the pic? 

[FartingMonk 3608]

1 hour ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

Funny enough ... was listening to a guy on a podcast today that made this point. He basically said with all the political risk posed by China, the U.S. and its companies should create a robust, sustainable partnership with Mexico to shift a ton of high tech, pharmaceutical, etc., manufacturing from China to Mexico. It seems like such a simple, smart idea that it makes too much sense. Costs are probably comparable plus significantly reduce shipping costs, and it might be handy if there ever was a global supply chain disruption.

Just riffing, but I suppose the primary headwind is the stability of the government and the cartels. Would have to get the government in order and just go Ozark on the cartels.

Mexico would be rich as fuck if it knew how to govern itself.  

[Neonmoon 38130]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_avocado_production
 

Dominican Republic is #2 producer but there’s a big gap 

[Incredulity 11683]

Guacamole-Serious Bidness.

[F250 28826]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

Mexico would be rich as fuck if it knew how to govern itself.  

Mexico is a wealthy nation with a huge wealth disparity. There is no reason for the few at the top to change the situation.

 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

3 hours ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

Funny enough ... was listening to a guy on a podcast today that made this point. He basically said with all the political risk posed by China, the U.S. and its companies should create a robust, sustainable partnership with Mexico to shift a ton of high tech, pharmaceutical, etc., manufacturing from China to Mexico. It seems like such a simple, smart idea that it makes too much sense. Costs are probably comparable plus significantly reduce shipping costs, and it might be handy if there ever was a global supply chain disruption.

Just riffing, but I suppose the primary headwind is the stability of the government and the cartels. Would have to get the government in order and just go Ozark on the cartels.

I did a college presentation proposing this around 2004. Think of all the progress that could have been made by now if the world just listened to a young, drunk, spider.

[FartingMonk 3608]

31 minutes ago, F250 said:

Mexico is a wealthy nation with a huge wealth disparity. There is no reason for the few at the top to change the situation.

 

I was tuna fishing in Cabo a few years ago and the captain told us a story of how corrupt it is in the fishing industry.  Basically huge Chinese vessels will come and just wipe out their tuna.  A navy captain caught one of the vessels and was bringing it in.  Before they could even being it in.  They got a call from some higher up and sacked the CO on the spot and they were forced to release the tuna boat.  The CO got assigned to some shitty place.  

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

I was tuna fishing in Cabo a few years ago and the captain told us a story of how corrupt it is in the fishing industry.  Basically huge Chinese vessels will come and just wipe out their tuna.  A navy captain caught one of the vessels and was bringing it in.  Before they could even being it in.  They got a call from some higher up and sacked the CO on the spot and they were forced to release the tuna boat.  The CO got assigned to some shitty place.  

[Zepol87 9195]

Limes are pretty bad also. I drove from Guadalajara to Puerto Vallarta in 2011 when shit was bad with the cartels. Passed 2 auto defensa groups on the way. The second checkpoint was way bigger but they were cool and shared a cigarette with me. I asked them what they were protecting because there wasn't a town that was real close and they told me it was the orchards. They had a few threats and a couple killings from the narcos wanting a cut. Fucking limes man

[InkaUtexas 26175]

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I was tuna fishing in Cabo a few years ago and the captain told us a story of how corrupt it is in the fishing industry.  Basically huge Chinese vessels will come and just wipe out their tuna.  A navy captain caught one of the vessels and was bringing it in.  Before they could even being it in.  They got a call from some higher up and sacked the CO on the spot and they were forced to release the tuna boat.  The CO got assigned to some shitty place.  

I deal with that for Africa daily. The US and EU are starting to fund tracking programs to fuck the Chinese up. Damn it is a fun project. 

[Zepol87 9195]

I was completely ignorant to the produce trade and the issues. First job out of the military was IT for Brothers produce. The guys in the valley had crazy ass stories and when some truckers would cross and chilled for a bit I truly believed they went through hell. The border sucks in a car and the bus is the worst I've experienced over Easter but fuck driving an 18 wheeler through

[FartingMonk 3608]

4 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

I was completely ignorant to the produce trade and the issues. First job out of the military was IT for Brothers produce. The guys in the valley had crazy ass stories and when some truckers would cross and chilled for a bit I truly believed they went through hell. The border sucks in a car and the bus is the worst I've experienced over Easter but fuck driving an 18 wheeler through

First job out of the military was for Quest.  So we do smart pigging.  I'm eating dim sum with the fily in Bellaire when the boss calls and says hey can you go toexico tomorrow.  We fly into Mexico city with our ultimate destination being a town called Tula de Allende.  As soon as we leave the airport the agent says lock your door.  Kidnappers will snatch you right out the door.  We are driving to Tula and he says oh by the way the cartel has just moved in there.  Me being naive say we don't mess with drugs they won't mess with us.  He goes nah, they are hot tapping pipelines.  So when we are tracking and we see other cars put there we turn around.  The cartels will shoot if we get near them.  I was like great I'm gonna die on my first project

 

 

[gmr548 16617]

Mexico would be rich as fuck if it knew how to govern itself.  

Mexico is rich as fuck. The spoils are shared between a very small group of people.

[aggie08 21557]

On 2/14/2022 at 3:25 PM, Neonmoon said:

Good call. It’s basically it’s own cartel

C'mon, man. You can't use two versions of "it's" within three words that very clearly meaning two different things, and then spell them the same way. I would have been happier with "Its basically it's own cartel." It at least shows effort.

[BabaYaga 15330]

On 2/14/2022 at 8:14 PM, FartingMonk said:

I was tuna fishing in Cabo a few years ago and the captain told us a story of how corrupt it is in the fishing industry.  Basically huge Chinese vessels will come and just wipe out their tuna.  A navy captain caught one of the vessels and was bringing it in.  Before they could even being it in.  They got a call from some higher up and sacked the CO on the spot and they were forced to release the tuna boat.  The CO got assigned to some shitty place.  

China?  Mexico?  Where do we think the cartels are getting all their fentanyl from?

[gernblansten 3197]

On 2/14/2022 at 10:14 PM, FartingMonk said:

I was tuna fishing in Cabo a few years ago and the captain told us a story of how corrupt it is in the fishing industry.  Basically huge Chinese vessels will come and just wipe out their tuna.  A navy captain caught one of the vessels and was bringing it in.  Before they could even being it in.  They got a call from some higher up and sacked the CO on the spot and they were forced to release the tuna boat.  The CO got assigned to some shitty place.  

Guarantee that guy is captaining a cargo ship full of rubber dog poop out of Hong Kong.

[Trey3216 15377]

I met her at the mercado
She's buying avocados
Man, she really turned me on
She reached for my pepper
I grabbed her tomato
I knew it wouldn't be very long

She walked to the mesa
I got my cerveza
I picked up the onions and lemons
And the way she looked at me
Man, I could clearly see
That it wouldn't be very long

Guacamole (Guacamole)
Guacamole (Guacamole)
We'd me making guacamole all night long
Guacamole (Guacamole)
Guacamole (Guacamole)
We'd be making guacamole all night long

[Guest Lobo]

I think this is the second time you've masterfully recrafted that Zevon song.  Well played.

(if I'm reading the melody correctly, but I could be down on my luck)

[Trey3216 15377]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I think this is the second time you've masterfully recrafted that Zevon song.  Well played.

(if I'm reading the melody correctly, but I could be down on my luck)

Nahh.  That one is an actual song by The Texas Tornados  

[Guest Lobo]

Oh shit, I was humming it to "Send Lawyers, Guns, and Money"...I think you and I riffed on it in another thread a few, drunken months back . 

It almost kinda works, but it wouldn't go along 4/4 time.  Didn't know the original, actual song you mentioned.  

You could do it with 'Send Lawyers, Guns, and Guaca' 

I need to re-learn guitar.

[Trey3216 15377]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Oh shit, I was humming it to "Send Lawyers, Guns, and Money"...I think you and I riffed on it in another thread a few, drunken months back . 

It almost kinda works, but it wouldn't go along 4/4 time.  Didn't know the original, actual song you mentioned.  

You could do it with 'Send Lawyers, Guns, and Guaca' 

I need to re-learn guitar.

Every now and then, a situation arises where the lyrics to a song seem ripe for rewriting.  Luckily I have enough wit to make it work sometimes.  This was just one of those times where the song was perfect by itself.  

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Oh shit, I was humming it to "Send Lawyers, Guns, and Money"...I think you and I riffed on it in another thread a few, drunken months back . 

It almost kinda works, but it wouldn't go along 4/4 time.  Didn't know the original, actual song you mentioned.  

You could do it with 'Send Lawyers, Guns, and Guaca' 

I need to re-learn guitar.

Enjoy every sandwich (sans avocados) 

[Guest Lobo]

There's a California Club joke in here somehwere.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10361]

On 2/14/2022 at 4:58 PM, Pescado_Rojo said:

S2 E1 of the Netflix series "Rotten" is called "The Avocado War". Pretty good deep dive on the problems the Avocado farmers face from the cartels. 

Learned Avocado comes from the Aztec word for "testicle".  Also never will look at an avocado the same after what the farmers and those affected go through.... crazy.

 

[TurkeyChew 383]

Interesting. Details are scant but some of what we know:

Quote

 

Though the Mexican and US governments haven’t revealed who made the threat, a source told the Washington Post that the inspector had discovered an illegal avocado shipment.

For the past several years, cartels have routinely stolen truckloads of avocados, sprung up their own growing operations, and charged farmers per-hectare fees to “protect” their crops, with dire consequences for those who refuse.

Farmers have formed militias to fight back, and the death toll in Michoacán (the only Mexican state approved by the US to export its avocados) has risen amid the conflicts.

The big question: Will we run out of avocados?

A ban on the US’ biggest supplier of avocados could definitely impact your ability to “add guac.” Here are some forecasts:

Chipotle’s CFO said its restaurants have “several weeks” of avocados left.

Mission Produce, the US’ biggest distributor, is looking to other countries for the product, but JPMorgan analysts responded that there simply isn’t enough global supply to go around.

Avocado supplier Eco Farms said it may have to raise prices as much as 25%.

But the fallout all depends on how long the ban lasts: Analysts say a ban of a couple weeks would increase prices and have a drastic impact on availability, while farmers say a ban of a couple months could seriously hurt Michoacán’s economy.

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26476]

On 2/14/2022 at 7:25 PM, Neonmoon said:

Good call. It’s basically it’s own cartel

I think the difference between a self-defense militia and a cartel is about two years.

[Deej 76961]

Seems like an opening to introduce an "I Can't Believe It's Not Avocado" product.

Made from 100% pure beef.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Deej

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

I could care less but the wife will be pleased ... looks like the Great Milangro Avocado War is over ... https://www.dallasnews.com/food/2022/02/18/avocado-exports-have-resumed-after-mexico-us-agree-to-safety-measures-for-inspectors/

[Guest Lobo]

Whew.  That was a close one, I went a whole week without guacamole.  

It is a bit off though that it took this many decades of the avocado trade and several U.S. administrations before we had to "agree to safety measures."  Don't allow cartels to threaten to dismember agricultural inspectors seems like low hanging fruit.  Pun intended. 

[Orange&White 5539]

I was HEB this morning and the avocado supplies runneth over. All sizes, 90% from Mexico. They did raise the price from .78 cents to .88 cents a pop on the small ones I normally buy, but wgaf? 

Not sure if this is still leftover stock but the stories of avocados demise were severely overstated as of now. Thank jesus

Edited February 20, 2022 by Orange&White