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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 9:58 PM, Nivek said:

they were designed with a war in Europe as a possibility

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I'm not making my opinion based on just the Russian failure in Ukraine.

As for the quote above, the Abrams was first deployed in 1980 for a battlefield that had changed since WWII and which has changed in quantum leaps since then. Forty years ago is a long time. It predates the Mac computer if I'm not mistaken. We were still looking at the last war anticipating huge tank battles and wanting to support the expensive tank programs that lined a lot of pockets.

They've been updated and are fabulous examples of their kind. It's mesmerizing to watch one fly over obstacles and make turns while it's main gun stays fixed on a target. 

I'm persuaded by Felix and other posters including you. I'm just not convinced.

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 8:03 PM, RomaVicta said:

Trump, as an ex-president, still gets intelligence briefings.

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He could get them if he wanted them but he wasn’t interested in them while he was in office so I don’t see why he would be interested in them now. He thinks he knows better than our intelligence agencies anyway and gets all his information from watching tv. But that’s enough to know that war crimes are being committed.

l’d speculate that it’s more likely he just wants to prop up his claim that none of this would be happening if he were still President and the election was stolen from him and blah blah blah. 

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 11:04 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

He could get them if he wanted them but he wasn’t interested in them while he was in office so I don’t see why he would be interested in them now. He thinks he knows better than our intelligence agencies anyway and gets all his information from watching tv. But that’s enough to know that war crimes are being committed.

l’d speculate that it’s more likely he just wants to prop up his claim that none of this would be happening if he were still President and the election was stolen from him and blah blah blah. 

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Can’t source it but remember an article that since the security briefings began (Kennedy maybe) every president did about 250 a year and Trump did less than a 100 a year. Probably off on the number but pretty sure he was at less than half of the others. 

Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 11:17 PM, Shaddie said:

Can’t source it but remember an article that since the security briefings began (Kennedy maybe) every president did about 250 a year and Trump did less than a 100 a year. Probably off on the number but pretty sure he was at less than half of the others. 

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GWB was also famously not a reader and briefings had to be simplified for him. But by all accounts Trump was even worse. Read any book on the Trump administration and you’ll hear accounts from members of his cabinet and staff relating how difficult the briefings were. How they had to keep them short, to just several easily-digested bullet points, and how they’d have an easier time keeping him engaged if his name was mentioned in them. And if he believed something, anything, for no reason at all, there was no changing his mind. He’d just say no, that’s wrong.

And he was also prone to just change the subject randomly and go off on a rant about some personal grievance. That happens in any interaction with him. In Bob Woodward’s book Rage, Trump sat for a bunch of recorded interviews. Some of those recordings have been released. I don’t know if they’re all publicly available (if not, they should be), but there are transcripts of some of their interviews in the book and it’s just a free-form word salad on Trump’s part. The man is an idiot and a loon. 

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 8:03 PM, RomaVicta said:
I've got a speculation to float. 
Trump in the last day or two has criticized Putin. I believe I heard that Trump seemed to accuse Vlad of genocide.
Trump, as an ex-president, still gets intelligence briefings. Or at least the ones before him did. Was their something in that briefing that made Trump feel less beholden?
And what is Biden hearing? We don't know. Based on Trump maybe turning on Vlad and Biden's measured response, my speculation is that Putin may not be expected to last much longer. We see how the Russian people are deceived, but there is no deceiving the Russian Army general staff, their admiralty, or their intelligence services. Those powerful entities know the score. Can an autocrat survive if all those arms of power decide he needs to go?
Thus ends my idle speculation. I don't know anything more than anybody else.

I think Trump just conflates morality with success. If Russia took Kiev in a week, then Putin would be a genius and any war crimes are forgotten. But, with Russia struggling, Putin loses that grace.
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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 12:47 AM, Tuco said:


I think Trump just conflates morality with success. If Russia took Kiev in a week, then Putin would be a genius and any war crimes are forgotten. But, with Russia struggling, Putin loses that grace.

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He complimented Putin and said it was “genius” when he declared the Donbas region to be independent of Ukraine. It made no sense but he said it. If Trump runs in 2024 and Putin wants to help him, he’ll welcome it.

Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 12:47 AM, Tuco said:


I think Trump just conflates morality with success. If Russia took Kiev in a week, then Putin would be a genius and any war crimes are forgotten. But, with Russia struggling, Putin loses that grace.

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Putin loses that Grace not for any moral reason but because he's proven to be a loser.

Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 8:03 PM, RomaVicta said:

Trump, as an ex-president, still gets intelligence briefings. Or at least the ones before him did. Was their something in that briefing that made Trump feel less beholden?

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  On 4/15/2022 at 8:13 PM, Chad Fuck said:

I thought I heard early on in the Biden admin that they had decided tfg would get no intelligence briefings?  

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Biden officially barred Trump from receiving them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/us/politics/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings.html

Trump didn’t care, and they couldn’t guarantee the security since he was at Mara-a-lago. 

I would say that Trump is most likely saying what he is saying because he no longer sees Putin as a strong man. Hell, Putin’s biggest naval ship was just sunk. Trump is a bandwagon kind of guy.   But how much of the Trump “empire” has Russian money in it?  

Or, even better for Trump, what if the sanctions means Trump doesn’t have to pay any of it back?  Kind of hard for those Russian banks or oligarchs to collect if they are cut off from Western financial systems.  

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 12:58 AM, WhatTheBuck said:

He complimented Putin and said it was “genius” when he declared the Donbas region to be independent of Ukraine. It made no sense but he said it. If Trump runs in 2024 and Putin wants to help him, he’ll welcome it.

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We should start a pool on whether, or rather when, Putin will be out of power.  If this continues the way it’s going, he’s toast.  

Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 12:47 AM, Tuco said:

I think Trump just conflates morality with success. If Russia took Kiev in a week, then Putin would be a genius and any war crimes are forgotten. But, with Russia struggling, Putin loses that grace.

Trump DID cal Putin a genius. If he’d been in Putin’s shoes, he’d have done exactly the same, because he suffers from the exact same authoritarian stupidity.

Trump is American Putin….but dumber.
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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 2:16 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Biden officially barred Trump from receiving them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/us/politics/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings.html

Trump didn’t care, and they couldn’t guarantee the security since he was at Mara-a-lago. 

I would say that Trump is most likely saying what he is saying because he no longer sees Putin as a strong man. Hell, Putin’s biggest naval ship was just sunk. Trump is a bandwagon kind of guy.   But how much of the Trump “empire” has Russian money in it?  

Or, even better for Trump, what if the sanctions means Trump doesn’t have to pay any of it back?  Kind of hard for those Russian banks or oligarchs to collect if they are cut off from Western financial systems.  

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Hell, our intelligence agencies debated about what to share with him while he was in office for fear that he’d share it with our adversaries. A sitting President was actually a national security risk. It boggles the mind. 

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 2:17 AM, atomheartbevo said:

We should start a pool on whether, or rather when, Putin will be out of power.  If this continues the way it’s going, he’s toast.  

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It’s hard to tell. The Times of London reported that Putin had “purged” 150 members of the FSB, his old agency, over the failures in Ukraine. This seems to corroborate that report;

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-purges-fsb-over-ukraine-failures-bellingcat-expert-2022-4?amp

Dictators tend to eliminate anyone who they perceive might be a threat and their circle becomes smaller and smaller. The oligarchs don’t have the power to remove him, all they can do is say, “Yes, Vlad,” and try to weather the storm. The Russian people can’t vote him out of office. Relatively few of them even have accurate information about the war in Ukraine. If he’s going to be removed, it will have to come from the generals in Moscow and they may be too thoroughly corrupt to care. I couldn’t begin to place a bet on how long Putin will last. 

Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 8:18 PM, RomaVicta said:

Thanks. That was somewhere in the old memory box. I wonder if Trump could be getting information elsewhere. Or maybe he's just trying to cover his bases.

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Given that Cheeto didn't read his intelligence briefings when he was the fucking potus, I'm very dubious about him reading it now - or anything else that's not about him, for that matter. I'd wager a good amount of money he's changed his tune only because of polling of his deplorables. 

Posted

"Ukrainian intelligence officials claim to have intercepted a call in which a Russian soldier says Vladimir Putin's troops are shooting their own people in Moscow.

The Security Service of Ukraine released an audio clip of the call on Friday, in which a man's voice can be heard saying Putin's forces have been opening fire on a Russian town. The man, a soldier located in Ukraine's Donetsk region, was speaking to his wife on the phone, who's back home in Russia."

https://www.msn.com/en-US/news/world/a-russian-soldier-says-putins-troops-have-been-blowing-up-their-own-as-if-they-were-terrorists/ar-AAWhDJp?ocid=sapphireappshare

Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 3:03 PM, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

"Ukrainian intelligence officials claim to have intercepted a call in which a Russian soldier says Vladimir Putin's troops are shooting their own people in Moscow.

The Security Service of Ukraine released an audio clip of the call on Friday, in which a man's voice can be heard saying Putin's forces have been opening fire on a Russian town. The man, a soldier located in Ukraine's Donetsk region, was speaking to his wife on the phone, who's back home in Russia."

https://www.msn.com/en-US/news/world/a-russian-soldier-says-putins-troops-have-been-blowing-up-their-own-as-if-they-were-terrorists/ar-AAWhDJp?ocid=sapphireappshare

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That’s quite a claim. No idea if it’s true or not. I mean, not like Ukrainian intelligence would have any reason to lie or anything. I’m going to need to see video evidence.

Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 3:52 PM, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

True. I'd like to see it corroborated elsewhere. 

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It just seems a little extreme. I’ve seen video of protests in Moscow where protesters were getting grabbed by the police and arrested. But nobody was getting shot. It seems a little hard to believe that it’s gotten to the point of shooting their own citizens. Yet.

 

Posted

Yea, we don't want another lie like the one about them sinking an important Russian warship by hitting it with two missiles.

(Yes, I would also like corroboration and context.)

Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 4:09 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

It just seems a little extreme. I’ve seen video of protests in Moscow where protesters were getting grabbed by the police and arrested. But nobody was getting shot. It seems a little hard to believe that it’s gotten to the point of shooting their own citizens. Yet.

 

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As you know, losing a war to Ukraine will be stunning to the Russian public. The costs will be stunning. The whole issue will be enraging. Russian history is filled with examples of how dissent is tolerated by the autocrat.

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 4:20 PM, RomaVicta said:

As you know, losing a war to Ukraine will be stunning to the Russian public. The costs will be stunning. The whole issue will be enraging. Russian history is filled with examples of how dissent is tolerated by the autocrat.

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Pos rep for the Battleship Potemkin reference. 

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 7:49 PM, RomaVicta said:

I couldn't disagree more. We need to be very clear about where we draw a hard line. We have been clear that we're willing to do just about anything for Ukraine other than risking soldiers and flyers. It's working.

I doubt anyone reads a Biden statement about what we're doing and assumes that's the limit of what we'll do. We don't say to what extent we're sharing intelligence (a big part in sinking the Moscow) or to what extent we're influencing the contributions of other nations. Recall that the Polish jet transfer got blown up because it went public. Why would anyone assume that that's the only secretive way we're choosing to aid Ukraine.

Russia has already failed in their objectives for the invasion. In other words, they've lost judging on any strategic basis. They're reduced to savage punitive measures and hoping to hold onto what they already had.

As for the posts above about the Russian military. Historically, they fight well in defense of the heart of their homeland. Napoleon and Hitler learned this the hard and bloody way. Their record against capable opponents beyond their borders is not so good. 

As for the Russian military bouncing back or adapting, they couldn't afford or bother to maintain the vehicles they already had. I don't see the wherewithal to replace 2500 armored vehicles and a $750MM cruiser that was a critical part of their sea-going air defense. They're done as a conventional threat to NATO. They're just about done as a conventional threat to fucking Ukraine.

They'd be smart to invest more in hypersonic missiles and drones to protect their interests. In the long run it's cheaper than a tank brigade. These newer weapons won't be enough to conquer anyone without a well-trained, well-disciplined, well-supplied, and superbly integrated ground force. 

Russia has pretty much announced they're basically only capable of mass murder, building destruction, and rape. Fighting doesn't really appear to be their thing once they leave Mother Russia.

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I disagree with the bolded if I’m speaking from the point of view of a Russian strategist. Russia is invulnerable to conventional attack due to its nuclear arsenal. As Ukraine has shown us, it’s invulnerable even to engagement from superior competitors due to the risk of nuclear war.

 Expensive homeland defense systems are redundant for them. They should absolutely invest in a military capable of power projection in their “near abroad” but that’s expensive and hard.  They’re failing at it. 

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Posted

IMG-4950.jpg

Saw this great meme.

It seems like the Ukrainians are trying to make it very clear that they destroyed the ship with their Neptune missiles, as every report they issue says so. It makes me wonder if they actually used US/Nato weapons. Since the attack happened at 2am and the ship sank, there is no way for the Russians to identify what what weapons were actually used. 

You can read about the attack here. Now the claim is that everyone on board was killed.   

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Posted

The ship sank while they were towing it back to port. The reports I’ve heard were that everyone on board was evacuated. That would make sense. I suppose if no one was on board you could make the claim that everyone on board was killed. 

Posted (edited)
  On 4/16/2022 at 5:44 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

The ship sank while they were towing it back to port. The reports I’ve heard were that everyone on board was evacuated. That would make sense. I suppose if no one was on board you could make the claim that everyone on board was killed. 

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Like so much in this war, (or any war), it's impossible to be sure exactly what happened. I wouldn't trust anything the Russians say, ever.  

The attack happened at 2am and the ship was supposedly hit by two missiles. If that is indeed true and knowing the incompetence of the Russians, I can assure you that there would be many casualties.

Edited by TreatyOak
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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 5:19 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

I disagree with the bolded if I’m speaking from the point of view of a Russian strategist. Russia is invulnerable to conventional attack due to its nuclear arsenal. As Ukraine has shown us, it’s invulnerable even to engagement from superior competitors due to the risk of nuclear war.

 Expensive homeland defense systems are redundant for them. They should absolutely invest in a military capable of power projection in their “near abroad” but that’s expensive and hard.  They’re failing at it. 

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Fair point, but I wasn't really talking about their homeland when I said protect their interests. We protect our interests far from home as do they. Also, the cost of restoring their army to something that can do anything other than embarrass itself against any stiff competition is, I would guess, prohibitive.

Nuclear insurance will keep a country from losing a conventional war on its home ground, that's for sure. 

They should probably just give up the costly notion of masquerading as a conventional super-power and devote their rubles to a solid frontier force and put the rest in something that makes their country better. And yes, I know how absurd it would be to expect such a thing.

I'm also aware that I'm discussing this with someone who knows what they're talking about. Always glad to see your posts.

Posted

Keep laughing at Vlad and making jokes at his expense.

Zelenskyy says Putin is afraid of humor, calling comedy a 'powerful weapon' for spreading truth

https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-says-putin-is-afraid-of-humor-calls-comedy-a-powerful-weapon-2022-4

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 11:43 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

GWB was also famously not a reader and briefings had to be simplified for him. But by all accounts Trump was even worse. Read any book on the Trump administration and you’ll hear accounts from members of his cabinet and staff relating how difficult the briefings were. How they had to keep them short, to just several easily-digested bullet points, and how they’d have an easier time keeping him engaged if his name was mentioned in them. And if he believed something, anything, for no reason at all, there was no changing his mind. He’d just say no, that’s wrong.

And he was also prone to just change the subject randomly and go off on a rant about some personal grievance. That happens in any interaction with him. In Bob Woodward’s book Rage, Trump sat for a bunch of recorded interviews. Some of those recordings have been released. I don’t know if they’re all publicly available (if not, they should be), but there are transcripts of some of their interviews in the book and it’s just a free-form word salad on Trump’s part. The man is an idiot and a loon. 

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Posted
  On 4/15/2022 at 11:17 PM, Shaddie said:

Can’t source it but remember an article that since the security briefings began (Kennedy maybe) every president did about 250 a year and Trump did less than a 100 a year. Probably off on the number but pretty sure he was at less than half of the others. 

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IIRC, GWB liked to take his briefings in person.  Obama, being a trained lawyer (and an intelligent guy) preferred to read his briefings, and after digesting them, make phone calls or email for clarification of whatever he felt required it. 

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Posted

It's been said before in so many different ways but the way Putin's assets are intertwined with the Russian government's, there's no way he was ever going to allow a fair and honest election.  They were all shams and will continue being so. The Ukraine war has brought it to the front to anyone watching. 

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 5:46 PM, TreatyOak said:

Like so much in this war, (or any war), it's impossible to be sure exactly what happened. I wouldn't trust anything the Russians say, ever.  

The attack happened at 2am and the ship was supposedly hit by two missiles. If that is indeed true and knowing the incompetence of the Russians, I can assure you that there would be many casualties.

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Didn’t a day go by between the time we heard the ship had been hit and the time we heard it sunk? The Ukrainians can propagandize too. I don’t know if we’ll ever know how many Russian sailors perished in the attack by the likelihood that all of them did seems fairly remote. It’s not like it sank immediately or that there weren’t other ships in the area to rescue evacuees.

129973_000_328A9QQ_1649966609631.jpg

Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 1:30 AM, WhatTheBuck said:

Didn’t a day go by between the time we heard the ship had been hit and the time we heard it sunk? The Ukrainians can propagandize too. I don’t know if we’ll ever know how many Russian sailors perished in the attack by the likelihood that all of them did seems fairly remote. It’s not like it sank immediately or that there weren’t other ships in the area to rescue evacuees.

129973_000_328A9QQ_1649966609631.jpg

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Yes, the Ukrainians are also sharing disinformation, as they should, as it’s a form of warfare. However, I wouldn’t believe anything the Russians say at this point. They claim the ship had an accidental fire, then was swamped as it was being towed, but then stated they were firing cruise missiles at Ukraine as an act of revenge. That literally makes no sense. If the ship sunk on its own, why would they need reprisal weapon attacks. Is your image showing the ship after the attack, cause the ship in the background is the cruiser and it looks undamaged. I certainly don’t know what happened either but listening to the Russians?. Not sure why you do, as your posts are always good. 

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Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 1:43 AM, TreatyOak said:

Yes, the Ukrainians are also sharing disinformation, as they should, as it’s a form of warfare. However, I wouldn’t believe anything the Russians say at this point. They claim the ship had an accidental fire, then was swamped as it was being towed, but then stated they were firing cruise missiles at Ukraine as an act of revenge. That literally makes no sense. If the ship sunk on its own, why would they need reprisal weapon attacks. Is your image showing the ship after the attack, cause the ship in the background is the cruiser and it looks undamaged. I certainly don’t know what happened either but listening to the Russians?. Not sure why you do, as your posts are always good. 

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Yeah, we know the Russians are full of shit. They claimed it sank because there was a fire on board and then bombed a Ukrainian factory where they make anti-ship missiles. But wouldn’t you try to tow a disabled ship to safety? That just seems like the sensible thing to do. I think it’s reasonable to assume they weren’t lying about that.

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 4:20 PM, RomaVicta said:

As you know, losing a war to Ukraine will be stunning to the Russian public. The costs will be stunning. The whole issue will be enraging. Russian history is filled with examples of how dissent is tolerated by the autocrat.

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Yes, take me back to my old Odessa steps.

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Posted
  On 4/16/2022 at 9:42 PM, Pods said:

Keep laughing at Vlad and making jokes at his expense.

Zelenskyy says Putin is afraid of humor, calling comedy a 'powerful weapon' for spreading truth

https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-says-putin-is-afraid-of-humor-calls-comedy-a-powerful-weapon-2022-4

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Great read. I'm so glad I subscribed to Atlantic back when they were on top of Covic reporting. Someone here recommended it.

Imagine if we elected a comedian specializing in politics and current events. It's as though they elected John Stewart. We could do much, much worse. Absurdism as the shortcut to truth presents a concept we've all likely realized on some level, but Zelenskyy's articulation from the bloody carnage of a vicious war makes the point beautifully. Quite a man. 

Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 1:43 AM, TreatyOak said:

Yes, the Ukrainians are also sharing disinformation, as they should, as it’s a form of warfare. However, I wouldn’t believe anything the Russians say at this point. They claim the ship had an accidental fire, then was swamped as it was being towed, but then stated they were firing cruise missiles at Ukraine as an act of revenge. That literally makes no sense. If the ship sunk on its own, why would they need reprisal weapon attacks. Is your image showing the ship after the attack, cause the ship in the background is the cruiser and it looks undamaged. I certainly don’t know what happened either but listening to the Russians?. Not sure why you do, as your posts are always good. 

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The Russian story needs more Antifa if they want to keep their American audience. Shocking oversight.

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Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 5:22 PM, RomaVicta said:

Oh, show me 'round your snow-peaked mountains way down south
Take me to your daddy's farm
Let me hear your balalaikas ringing out
Come and keep your comrade warm

I'm back In the U.S.S.R.
Hey, you don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the U.S.S.R.

 

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The judges would have accepted take me back to my old Kentucky home as well

Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 5:08 PM, RomaVicta said:

Great read. I'm so glad I subscribed to Atlantic back when they were on top of Covic reporting. Someone here recommended it.

Imagine if we elected a comedian specializing in politics and current events. It's as though they elected John Stewart. We could do much, much worse. Absurdism as the shortcut to truth presents a concept we've all likely realized on some level, but Zelenskyy's articulation from the bloody carnage of a vicious war makes the point beautifully. Quite a man. 

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I would take John Stewart in a heartbeat over anyone currently in politics.

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Posted
  On 4/17/2022 at 5:08 PM, RomaVicta said:

Great read. I'm so glad I subscribed to Atlantic back when they were on top of Covic reporting. Someone here recommended it.

Imagine if we elected a comedian specializing in politics and current events. It's as though they elected John Stewart. We could do much, much worse. Absurdism as the shortcut to truth presents a concept we've all likely realized on some level, but Zelenskyy's articulation from the bloody carnage of a vicious war makes the point beautifully. Quite a man. 

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  On 4/17/2022 at 10:17 PM, Macanudo said:

I would take John Stewart in a heartbeat over anyone currently in politics.

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I've been on that train for almost 20 years now. Never, ever forget

 

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