Jump to content

Ukraine War


BehoId, The Underminer!

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Jeffrey Sachs is a real garbage person for lots of reasons and it’s exhausting to have to continually slap down shit that he and other “smart people” have to say about the war. 
 

He’s an economist and expert on sustainable development. Things he isn’t: a Russia scholar, a Ukraine scholar, a speaker of any of the regional languages, a security scholar, a military practitioner, a diplomat, a diplomatic historian, a Cold War expert, an intelligence practitioner. Why the fuck do people who have no frame of reference offered space to bloviate? 

Where does Mearsheimer fall?

  • Fuck You 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Mearsheimer is an IR dork who has his THEORYYYYYYY and a desperate need to be a contrarian in print. 

Well, with regards to Ukraine he’s been right on some key points going all the way back to being one of the only people arguing for Ukraine to keep their nukes in the 90s for Russian deterrence. Whoopsie. 
 

Here’s his latest talk with a Q&A. It’s long and I believe Brisket complained about the length last time. 
 

The key points 

A peace deal is unattainable. The two sides in current conditions will never agree on territory or Ukrainian neutrality conditions. 
 

While Ukraine had the advantage most of 2022, things are turning in Russia’s favor after their mobilization. He believes Russia wins the war of attrition due advantage in population size and volume of artillery. His prediction is Russia takes another 4 ethnically Russian-heavy oblasts, including Odesa, leaving Ukraine a rump state. 
 

TL;Dw 

It’s going to get worse. 

  • Haha 1
  • Fuck You 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’ve seen the talk, he’s inside a fact-free bubble. He easily makes up shit like a 1:2 kill ratio in favor of the Russians and then adds to it and saying “but maybe it’s even 1:3 or 1:4, my ‘friends’ think so.” And it’s totally out of wack with the demonstrated performance of Russia on the battlefield (heavy losses of previously seized territory and months long battle for a few kilometers). Or what they are doing, which does not at all resemble preparation for an offensive. 
 

News: No one who cites “friends” as part of their battlefield assessment should be listened to. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ve seen the talk, he’s inside a fact-free bubble. He easily makes up shit like a 1:2 kill ratio in favor of the Russians and then adds to it and saying “but maybe it’s even 1:3 or 1:4, my ‘friends’ think so.” And it’s totally out of wack with the demonstrated performance of Russia on the battlefield (heavy losses of previously seized territory and months long battle for a few kilometers). Or what they are doing, which does not at all resemble preparation for an offensive. 
 

News: No one who cites “friends” as part of their battlefield assessment should be listened to. 

I was skeptical of his kill ratio as well, but the general point on artillery imbalance made sense to me in the type of war this has become. 
 

As far as his “friends” go, he’s been an international speaker on foreign relations for decades. I’m guessing he wasn’t referring to his buddies at the pub in Chicago, but maybe you’re right. 

  • Fuck You 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guy, use your noggin and step outside of the world Mearsheimer created, where internally everything does make sense. What direction is the army that’s offing its enemies at a 4:1 clip moving? Backward? Inch by inch through a mid-sized city, reporting on how they have seized street corners? 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guy, use your noggin and step outside of the world Mearsheimer created, where internally everything does make sense. What direction is the army that’s offing its enemies at a 4:1 clip moving? Backward? Inch by inch through a mid-sized city, reporting on how they have seized street corners? 

Fucking this. Army of a country many times larger is killing the army of the country many times smaller at a 4:1 clip? That larger army is already in the smaller country’s capital dictating terms of surrender.

THIS larger army, on the other hand…took months to capture a single city the size of some burritos I’ve eaten…and that’s their only material gain of the past 6 months. Meanwhile, enemy forces are blowing shit up on their side of the border.

This is what inevitable victory looks like…when you’re a vatnik.
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

My guy, use your noggin and step outside of the world Mearsheimer created, where internally everything does make sense. What direction is the army that’s offing its enemies at a 4:1 clip moving? Backward? Inch by inch through a mid-sized city, reporting on how they have seized street corners? 

I said I was skeptical of his thoughts on kill ratios. There’s not a lot of transparency around those numbers. 
 

As far as where we stand now, the counteroffensive has been built up for many months. The last month or so has consisted of massive lowering of expectations and pleading for more weapons to even pull it off. To me that signals that people in the know see things turning. 

  • Fuck You 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

Well, with regards to Ukraine he’s been right on some key points going all the way back to being one of the only people arguing for Ukraine to keep their nukes in the 90s for Russian deterrence. Whoopsie. 

Actually it's turning out that in the 90s a lot of people were banging that drum about how Ukraine shoulda kept their nukes, it's just that they were ignored, and YouTube wasn't around to capture their talks. Even more were banging that drum in the 2000s before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

A peace deal is unattainable. The two sides in current conditions will never agree on territory or Ukrainian neutrality conditions. 

I will agree with that, because Russia has made it clear that it believes that Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltics (and Poland) belong to it, so Ukraine would have to be foolish to give any territory up. All because poor little Putin still can't get over the breakup of the USSR.

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

things are turning in Russia’s favor after their mobilization.

Spit Take Lol GIF

Russia started their mobilizations over 8 months ago.  What, do they need 18 months?  180 months? How many fucking months do they need to continue mobilization?

For NATO armies, 8 months is way more time than is needed to get typical infantry soldiers through basic training, AIT (Advanced Individual Training, in this case, infantry), and in the case of the US Army, it's 14 weeks when they are doing one-station infantry training (where basic combat and infantry training are combined). Shit, 8 months covers a lot of the combat arms specialties in the Army.

Meanwhile, we have 8 months of Russia doing waves of call-ups and sending its recently mobilized to the front with a week or two of training, because they gutted their already shitty training infrastructure to get more units in the fight back in April of last year (normally in Russia, soldiers complete their advanced training at the units they are assigned to).  Russia gives no fucks about the mobilized and it shows.

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

He believes Russia wins the war of attrition due advantage in population size and volume of artillery.

Russia wins the war of attrition, even though they are having to rely on Iran and North Korea for ammo?  Really?  Where is this volume of artillery over the past few months, because maybe we all missed it.

Oh, and capturing an area is different than occupying it - Russia doesn't have million plus troops sitting around that would be needed to actually occupy the areas it aspires to.

In case you missed it, Putin was going off of an assumption what happened in 2014 would be repeatable in 2022.

3 hours ago, Mullet Free said:

His prediction is Russia takes another 4 ethnically Russian-heavy oblasts, including Odesa, leaving Ukraine a rump state.

This is the stupidest fucking thing I've heard of in a while.

Russia took 9 months to mostly take a city the size of San Marcos 145 miles from its border, which I might add - Russia controls all of the territory from its border to Bakhmut, so it's only contested in the last few 15-20 miles of that 145 miles.

Holy fucking shit, Russia couldn't even hold Kharkiv or Kherson, but we are supposed to believe that Russia can mobilized a few hundred thousand men and mount an amphibious operation to take Odesa? And then come up with a few hundred thousand more to actually occupy Odesa?

1 hour ago, Mullet Free said:

As far as his “friends” go, he’s been an international speaker on foreign relations for decades. I’m guessing he wasn’t referring to his buddies at the pub in Chicago, but maybe you’re right. 

Things look far different from 35,000 feet than they do 3,500 or 350 feet, and it sounds like his friends A) believe Russian propaganda and B) aren't looking at what's actually happening, but instead looking at theories.

If his predictions were at all capable of coming true, they should have already been happening, and we would have seen clear evidence. Hell, Ukraine fucking sunk some of the major amphibious ships that Russia would need, so good luck throwing men on a barge and towing them to Odesa.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

As far as where we stand now, the counteroffensive has been built up for many months. The last month or so has consisted of massive lowering of expectations and pleading for more weapons to even pull it off. To me that signals that people in the know see things turning. 

Or it signals that Ukraine is sending out misinformation to fuck with the Russians.

I mean, for fuck's sake, the Russians couldn't even repel a couple of small border raids fairly deep into Russia by anti-Putin militias, and instead trotted out some carefully staged Humvees that miraculously drove into trenches instead of driving the 10 or 15 feet it would have taken to go around them.

I get your shtick is probably to just be contrarian either because you don't like that the US/NATO have been doing very well in providing a lot of stuff and that Biden actually stood up to Putin unlike Trump who was clearly subservient to Putin, or hell, maybe you like the Russians and like their totalitarian society that is seeing people jailed because they said something bad about Putin, but just know you are lumping yourself in with the Qanon idiots who can't differentiate between reality and the idea that JFK Jr is going to turn up alive and running for office with Trump, or that Trump is still secretly the President, or that Tom Hanks is drinking the fluids of children to stay young (it's not working well).

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, just taking the number of shells one side is dropping versus the other side and cooking that into some sort of kill ratio is stupid AF. There’s just so much that goes into this, like what’s being shelled, and what the purpose is. 
 

An example from a war where we do have good figures. For seven days in late June 1918, the British Army dropped a million and three quarter shells onto an 18 mile stretch of German positions. Then the British advanced. And on that first day after the bombardment the Brits suffered some 20K KIA and the Germans about 12,000 casualties overall, not KIA. So at the Somme, at least, the ratio of ordnance dropped to dead enemies was reversed, because the Brits shelled well fortified positions and the Germans just waited it out and then killed them as they advanced. Overall, the attacking British and French suffered 600k casualties and the defending Germans 400k. And a lot of the same math applies in Bakhmut, especially among the expendable Wagnerites.

Mearsheimer relies a lot on crude math (population x industrial capacity) in his book (which I’ve actually read). So he approaches RU-UA through that lens. Which is all wrong, of course the big obvious outlier is Western supplies.  
 

But it also does not examine the political realities of Russia (as a realist Mearsheimer does not allow for domestic politics and issues to impact war/diplomacy). And it’s abundantly clear that Putin is highly averse to a full mobilization and full war economy. He is not in a war of survival (yet) and he also has real internal friction in both capacity and will if he tried to throw everything he had into this fight. Ukraine is not fighting all of Russia and likely never will be, they’re fighting all of Russia that Putin is willing and able to commit.  

Edited by 956 Worldwide
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or it signals that Ukraine is sending out misinformation to fuck with the Russians.

I mean, for fuck's sake, the Russians couldn't even repel a couple of small border raids fairly deep into Russia by anti-Putin militias, and instead trotted out some carefully staged Humvees that miraculously drove into trenches instead of driving the 10 or 15 feet it would have taken to go around them.

I get your shtick is probably to just be contrarian either because you don't like that the US/NATO have been doing very well in providing a lot of stuff and that Biden actually stood up to Putin unlike Trump who was clearly subservient to Putin, or hell, maybe you like the Russians and like their totalitarian society that is seeing people jailed because they said something bad about Putin, but just know you are lumping yourself in with the Qanon idiots who can't differentiate between reality and the idea that JFK Jr is going to turn up alive and running for office with Trump, or that Trump is still secretly the President, or that Tom Hanks is drinking the fluids of children to stay young (it's not working well).

 

If his twitter account were ever discovered, I'm sure you'd see something like this in his bio:

$PEPE🐸, TRUTH SEEKER🕵️‍♀️, PURE BLOOD❤️, and WWG1WWGA🙏, plus some mention of combatting the MSM💥 and CLOWNWORLD🤡

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Meanwhile, we have 8 months of Russia doing waves of call-ups and sending its recently mobilized to the front with a week or two of training, because they gutted their already shitty training infrastructure to get more units in the fight back in April of last year (normally in Russia, soldiers complete their advanced training at the units they are assigned to).  Russia gives no fucks about the mobilized and it shows

Just this week we had two MSM stories talking about Ukraine sending in undertrained troops to combat. Or old ones (the 42 year old doctor that was a father of 3 resonated with me). Posters said oh that seems desperate. Yeah no shit. Makes me think it’s not going as swimmingly as portrayed here.  
 

Those same stories talked about how Ukraine was losing good existing troops while Russia was losing prisoner conscripts. How is that a good or sustainable situation when you have a fraction of the population?
 

I get that you and most posters here think Ukraine is mopping up the Russians. I just think it’s set up to surprise in the wrong direction if you look at how the reporting on the war has shifted. Frozen conflict, don’t expect a lot from the counteroffensive and so forth.

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

But it also does not examine the political realities of Russia (as a realist Mearsheimer does not allow for domestic politics and issues to impact war/diplomacy). And it’s abundantly clear that Putin is highly averse to a full mobilization and full war economy. He is not in a war of survival (yet) and he also has real internal friction in both capacity and will if he tried to throw everything he had into this fight. Ukraine is not fighting all of Russia and likely never will be, they’re fighting all of Russia that Putin is willing and able to commit.

You don’t think he’s in a war for survival? We’ve openly talked about regime change. We’ve said we want Ukraine to take back Crimea. Those are existential threats to Putin. This shit is just getting started. 

 

 

  • Fuck You 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

I get that you and most posters here think Ukraine is mopping up the Russians.

If they were mopping up, they'd be in the process of dismantling the foundation for the Kerch bridge on the Crimea side.

33 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

 if you look at how the reporting on the war has shifted.

It hasn't really shifted, it's just the accounts you follow have you thinking that.

33 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Frozen conflict, don’t expect a lot from the counteroffensive and so forth.

Frozen conflict, such that Russians are invading Russia and discovering that Russia is a paper tiger without adequate numbers to defend their border?

Don't confuse non-glamorous shaping operations such as long-range strikes against Russian rear areas with the counteroffensive. Just because the counteroffensive isn't going by the schedule you think it should, doesn't mean it's not going to happen (or technically isn't happening depending on your POV).

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

You don’t think he’s in a war for survival? We’ve openly talked about regime change. We’ve said we want Ukraine to take back Crimea. Those are existential threats to Putin. This shit is just getting started.

It's only an existential threat to Putin because Putin made it an existential threat to himself. Putin set the tanks in motion, Putin promised the Russian people stupid shit that he couldn't deliver.

Putin is fucking aggy through and through, who is promising a Heisman and a national championship in September, and then still promising it at the start of November when he's 2-7 and is falling off of the roller coaster.

I don't know if you're paying attention or not, but Putin is a total dictator - he controls Russian media, and he is having people jailed who speak out against him. If Putin wanted to pull out of Ukraine, he could get on state media and say that the Special Military Operation achieved its objectives of denazifying Ukraine, and say that if Ukraine thinks about joining NATO, Russia will invade again. He can jail anybody who criticizes such a plan.

Edit: A lot of Russians would be willing to forgive Putin if he pulled out of Ukraine and tried to get things back to normal. The longer this goes on because Putin won't pull out, the more pressure that builds up. It's 100% Putin's fault.

Edited by atomheartbevo
  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Putin wanted to pull out of Ukraine, he could get on state media and say that the Special Military Operation achieved its objectives of denazifying Ukraine, and say that if Ukraine thinks about joining NATO, Russia will invade again.

Agreed. He must think the job is not done and more gains are attainable.  
 

Or he realized with the sanctions that his country is screwed long term so he’s all in. That’s one thing I think y’all discount. They’re all in. We’re not, nor should we be.
 

Will that matter eventually? 

  • Fuck You 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed. He must think the job is not done and more gains are attainable.  
 
Or he realized with the sanctions that his country is screwed long term so he’s all in. That’s one thing I think y’all discount. They’re all in. We’re not, nor should we be.
 
Will that matter eventually? 

Counterpoint: Putinist Russia will be a threat to stability and the economic well-being of much of the world for as long as they survive.
If they are at an existential precipice…finish them. Solve the problem for good. Don’t leave it for later.
  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Mullet Free said:

Agreed. He must think the job is not done and more gains are attainable.  

There is no "job", it's just him wanting to get the USSR back together by force.

And there are no more gains that are attainable - shit, he lost Kherson in one of the Ukrainian counteroffensives last August just as his forces started trying to take Bakhmut and that was 9 months ago. Any more "gains" like that and he's liable to lose a chunk of Crimea in the process.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 5:49 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Frozen conflict, such that Russians are invading Russia and discovering that Russia is a paper tiger without adequate numbers to defend their border?

Frozen?  Who here would have taken "frozen" at the start of the invasion?  History is full of invaded countries that simply maintained continuous resistance eventually resulting in the defeat of a superpower. A stalemate is just another version of a Russian embarrassment.  The idea that Ukraine is capable of result cleaner than that is just a testament to how badly Russia fucked up.  "Ukrainian counteroffensive liberates Crimea" was not on anyone's bingo card at the start of this shit - certainly not on Putin's nor the average Russian's.  Now it's a real possibility.  

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 8:31 PM, Mullet Free said:

Agreed. He must think the job is not done and more gains are attainable.  

If I fuck this chicken for just a few more hours, it will fall in love with me and agree to start a family.

On 5/27/2023 at 8:38 AM, Mullet Free said:

Well, with regards to Ukraine he’s been right on some key points going all the way back to being one of the only people arguing for Ukraine to keep their nukes in the 90s for Russian deterrence. Whoopsie. 

It is a slam dunk that a Ukraine armed with nukes is a good thing? They have a history of corrupt and dangerous government. I'm not sure I see the advantage of them having nukes even today:

  • It increases the chance of nuclear accident.
  • It would increase the chance of Putin using nukes preemptorily to disable Ukraine's nukes.
  • If Ukraine launched a nuke at Russia, their whole country would be a parking lot in half an hour.
  • God knows where a Russian missiles aimed at Ukraine might actually strike.
  • Fallout.

Your expert mortally discredits himself as you do to yourself thinking this is obviously a good idea. The simplism of limiting the analysis to what those weapons would affect only to this conflict is terminally shallow.

  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 1:50 PM, Mullet Free said:

I said I was skeptical of his thoughts on kill ratios. There’s not a lot of transparency around those numbers. 
 

As far as where we stand now, the counteroffensive has been built up for many months. The last month or so has consisted of massive lowering of expectations and pleading for more weapons to even pull it off. To me that signals that people in the know see things turning. 

Oh, good!  MulletFree is here to be wrong about something besides crypto.

MF, have you ever been employed by or taken money from anyone associated with the Russian government?

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 8:08 PM, Mullet Free said:

Just this week we had two MSM stories talking about Ukraine sending in undertrained troops to combat. Or old ones (the 42 year old doctor that was a father of 3 resonated with me). Posters said oh that seems desperate. Yeah no shit. Makes me think it’s not going as swimmingly as portrayed here.  
 

Those same stories talked about how Ukraine was losing good existing troops while Russia was losing prisoner conscripts. How is that a good or sustainable situation when you have a fraction of the population?
 

I get that you and most posters here think Ukraine is mopping up the Russians. I just think it’s set up to surprise in the wrong direction if you look at how the reporting on the war has shifted. Frozen conflict, don’t expect a lot from the counteroffensive and so forth.

You don’t think he’s in a war for survival? We’ve openly talked about regime change. We’ve said we want Ukraine to take back Crimea. Those are existential threats to Putin. This shit is just getting started. 

OK, so just for the hell of it, why don't you come out and say what you would like to see an an outcome?

Is it Ukraine surrenders and Putin wins.  Zelenskyy dies an old man in Monaco and the Russians go savage mode on the survivors?

Or Ukraine sues for peace just to get it over with and Russia keeps half their country and looks to arm up again and finish the job?  Because I'm pretty sure Putin would have a lot of bullshit restrictions on what Ukraine and or can't do.

Or is it global nuclear war?

Or is it Ukraine wins, drives the Russians out of their country, Putin gets his head chopped off, and the new easier, mellower Matthew McConnaghyeskyy Ruskie presidente say, "alright, you boys won!  Let's get high!" and bulk orders from The Rogue Shop (TM) and everybody feels alright?

Come on, let's hear it.

Edited by Bullneck
  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need doofus's like Mearsheimer.  Refuting his dumbassery, line by line, gives us clarity of thought.  It forces us to understand our position better.  We should hafta "work" to believe what we believe, instead of just accepting the beliefs of well-informed people like atomheart and Inka.  At the beginning of the war, I agreed with you guys on basic terms.  But after discussions with my "doubting" friends, I understand and believe it more.  Ukraine needs to win, and we need to help them.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And now I'm 2/3 through Mearsheimer's talk.  When an idiot like me can poke holes in his argument...his argument is very weak.

1) Russia's fighter pilots are getting better and better.

2) F16's won't matter.  A, the Ukrainian pilots won't be trained very well, and B, Russia's S400 anti-aircraft systems are "the best in the World."

3) Ukraine is likely to use their new F16's to attack Moscow.  This runs directly at odds of #2 above.  Which one is it? F16's won't matter, or F16's can penetrate all the way to the Russian capitol.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 8:31 PM, Mullet Free said:

 

Agreed. He must think the job is not done and more gains are attainable.  
 

Or he realized with the sanctions that his country is screwed long term so he’s all in. That’s one thing I think y’all discount. They’re all in. We’re not, nor should we be.
 

Will that matter eventually? 

You’re not part of any “we” here, comrade.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/26/2023 at 2:26 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

Jeffrey Sachs is a real garbage person for lots of reasons and it’s exhausting to have to continually slap down shit that he and other “smart people” have to say about the war. 
 

He’s an economist and expert on sustainable development. Things he isn’t: a Russia scholar, a Ukraine scholar, a speaker of any of the regional languages, a security scholar, a military practitioner, a diplomat, a diplomatic historian, a Cold War expert, an intelligence practitioner. Why the fuck do people who have no frame of reference offered space to bloviate? 

Jordan Peterson is the worst at this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2023 at 11:16 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

My guy, use your noggin and step outside of the world Mearsheimer created, where internally everything does make sense. What direction is the army that’s offing its enemies at a 4:1 clip moving? Backward? Inch by inch through a mid-sized city, reporting on how they have seized street corners? 

Maybe their 4:1 kill ratio includes civilians.  

  • Like 1
  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



×
×
  • Create New...