Ukraine War

[YGIFS 19449]

There is an incredibly marked shift in the near coastal currents close to China between summer and winter with regard to Taiwan transport passage.  It’s easy to track and been a known quantity for centuries.  Depending on when they start mobilizing, they’ll have one choice how/which direction  to push off.  Never mind satellite imagery.  You try to go against the current with that big a fleet for a coastal assault on any of the three sides not called “East”, you’re just churning water waiting to be hit by defense artillery/aerial bombardment.  You can go easier to the NW of Taiwan in summer.  But then, there just so happens to be a friendly South Korea/Japan/USN/Australian war game taking place.  Oops

[956 Worldwide 34677]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

China has the next best stealth aircraft after the US and its allies. I would not underestimate that portion of their military. 

And the current plan isn’t to send them (Taiwan) F-35s.  F-16Vs. 

[Nivek 16913]

2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Thanks for the response. 

I was swayed by the extensive reporting of how formidable the Iraqi army would likely be. They'd had combat experience and we hadn't been in anything a conventional battle with another nation in decades. I recall persons like me being scorned (you're not doing that) for not thinking the US would easily win the invasion. It's was like I was a bad fan of my team.

My response was always, "What? Did you think I had my own intelligence service working in Iraq?" I just knew what I read in several news outlets. Amusingly, one of the things to worry about was to be Iraq's airforce. They flew to Iran to hide. A bad sign for Iraquis.

I don't think I'm swayed by Ted Cruz (how dare you!). China is a big country that develops some of is own war technology. There are a lot of them. If we get involved, I'm concerned about the survival of our surface fleet. I'm concerned about the number aircraft China has in the area. I'm concerned about their esprit d' corps.

In their yard, it would be extremely difficult, in my opinion. And look how right I was about Iraq!

Ha!  Sorry, I wasn't implying you directly with the Ted Cruz comment but I do think that perception exists within some segments of our community and our government.   We love to build up our adversaries, which I supposed helps us not underestimate them, but we often go too far.  China has its own cultural issues with their little emperors and with the emphasis on single male heirs, losing men in a useless conflict is going to have huge social implications and force China into another crisis given their limited welfare program (according to Wiki).  

While they do indeed study and copy equipment from others, their initial use will likely be fairly underwhelming as they are not experienced in putting it into action.   Just like how Ukraine ran out the first gen Bradleys out into minefields and while they were successful in keeping the crews alive, they had to adapt to the tactics the equipment was designed for.   China supposedly has issues with carrier launches/landings and while they will eventually figure it out, those things should not be taken for granted.  Sure they copied our hovercraft, but can they actually protect it and deploy it?  How can they defend assets around the world with such a limited range on their Navy?  Sure they can eventually overwhelm Taiwan, but the cost to China is going to be high and their ability to continue to project power out towards Japan and India will be compromised.   Plus. there is another major issue at stake.  China's economy is heavily tied to the U.S. as a trading partner.   Other nations would gladly jump at the opportunity to make rubber dogshit for us.  It would cause us both pain, but a manufacturing center which loses its customers is going to have a much harder time surviving than a customer who loses its manufacturer but also retains the knowledge to set up shop elsewhere.   

But that is just like my uninformed opinion man.  I could (and probably am) be wrong.  (PS thanks for the fun talk/distraction)  Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.  

[The Dog 43998]

[Schulz2.0 28941]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Surprised to see Rubio on that list.

[atomheartbevo 89610]

 

[The Dog 43998]

 

[956 Worldwide 34677]

Looks like this just got passed. Aid to Ukraine will start rolling as soon as POTUS signs. 
 

Arms to Ukraine, Taiwan. TikTok has to be sold out from under PRC. We’re so back. 

Edited April 24 by 956 Worldwide

[Parliament 14213]

[WhatTheBuck 28764]

On 4/22/2024 at 10:08 AM, Nivek said:

It might be.  But I think it is more reasonable.   He is a career politician and this is a known strategy.  Give credit for something to someone, let them bask in the glory of something they didn't do in order to try to get them to continue on that path.   Only he is not dealing with a normal person, he is dealing with conman who has the attention span of a syphilitic squirrel.   

He’s a sycophant. Nothing more. 

[WhatTheBuck 28764]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Fucking die already, Mitch. You know damn well it was Trump and that everything ties back to Trump and Russia and you were totally fine with it because you value power and party over the constitution. 

[The Dog 43998]

[The Dog 43998]

(referencing Mike Lee who is having a meltdown of this and has accused NAFO in the past of being on the CIA payroll)

[The Dog 43998]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just reading the NYT article on what all is in the aid package.

Is there no equivalent coverage from the Russia side? I'd like to read their read of it. We see those clips of the propaganda shows all the time, but nothing else? It seems to me that there would be different types of Russia consumers of news there just as there is here.  Someone has to be demanding more of a realistic conversation of what is going on.  The media control over there just doesn't allow that at all?  Seems like a propaganda loss if anything to be telling your people that you are only going to feed them b.s. all their lives.

[Foosters 17802]

39 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Just reading the NYT article on what all is in the aid package.

Is there no equivalent coverage from the Russia side? I'd like to read their read of it. We see those clips of the propaganda shows all the time, but nothing else? It seems to me that there would be different types of Russia consumers of news there just as there is here.  Someone has to be demanding more of a realistic conversation of what is going on.  The media control over there just doesn't allow that at all?  Seems like a propaganda loss if anything to be telling your people that you are only going to feed them b.s. all their lives.

Your position is that citizens in dictatorships could gain access to non-state sponsored propaganda by asking the state for it?

[The Dog 43998]

all the Russians did was cry and threaten to nuke us for the millionth time. 

[The Dog 43998]

 

[DDD Dad 14313]

On 4/22/2024 at 8:57 AM, RomaVicta said:

I think that's generous on your part. I don't see a subtle nudge from a pitiful minion shaking Trump's fealty to Putin. I think Lindsay wants to make sure he has a spot if the fascists win out. Trying to stay of the proscription lists.

He's fooling himself.  If Trump becomes king he will be first against the wall. /radiohead

[Horn Dog 9794]

Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/another-us-precision-guided-weapon-falls-prey-russian-electronic-warfare-us-says/396141/

 

Not great, but the intelligence gained about Russia's actual real world capabilities must be priceless to our military. I would imagine our military/CIA spend way more than 60 billion trying to gain this type of knowledge about Russia/China.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33857]

it's not good, but kinda like a player coming back from injury, there is no substitute for the real thing - getting these weapons into the theater of war is the only way to know if they work. hopefully the knowledge gained is exponentially valuable. i hate that I'm even cheering on the war machine, but fuck Putin

Edited May 1 by Longhorn_Fan68

[RomaVicta 29884]

What a shock, it's made by Boeing.

[Brisketexan 104950]

25 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

What a shock, it's made by Boeing.

Huh.  You'd think their products would be very, very good at killing people.

[Chad Fuck 17638]

Huh.  You'd think their products would be very, very good at killing people.

Only unintentionally.

[RomaVicta 29884]

In the series, Slow Horses on Apple, the setting is a shitty set of offices where fuck-ups from MI6 are assigned boring tasks. The head guy, Lamb, is a legendary spook who is hostile, vulgar, and insulting at every turn. It's a great show.

In an action sequence, one of the fuck-ups, let's call him Agent Boeing, wrestles with and kills an intruder. "I didn't mean to kill him."

Lamb: "Of course not, if you'd meant to kill him, he'd still be alive."

Edited May 14 by RomaVicta

[Brisketexan 104950]

51 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

In the series, Slow Horses on Apple, the setting is a shitty set of offices where fuck-ups from MI6 are assigned boring tasks. The head guy, Lamb, is a legendary spook who is hostile, vulgar, and insulting at every turn. It's a great show.

In an action sequence, one of the fuck-ups, let's call him Agent Boeing, wrestles with and kills an intruder. "I didn't mean to kill him."

Lamb: "Of course not, it you'd meant to kill him, he'd still be alive."

Love that show, and it's exhibit 1 million in how fantastic Gary Oldman is in everything he does.

[TeeDubya 3361]

Goodness gracious, great balls of fire….

 

 

[Party_Taco 3719]

Goodness gracious, great balls of fire….
 
 

[atomheartbevo 89610]

US Green Beret Colonel kills Russian spy…on his own property, near Fort Liberty (former Fort Bragg).

An US colonel of the Special Forces discovered a trespasser with a telescopic camera on his property. After an altercation, the elite US soldier was forced to kill the intruder. It turned out that the intruder is a Russian national of Chechen ethnicity and that he was illegally in the USA. The incident occurred not far from Fort Liberty (formerly know as Fort Bragg), North Carolina. Law enforcement agencies suspect a spy operation.

The company sound s shady as shit.

[InkaUtexas 25837]

Not that many Chechens up in that part of the country.

[Chad Fuck 17638]

Not that many Chechens up in that part of the country.

One fewer now.

[WhatTheBuck 28764]

Mike Flynn is sad. 

[Bojack 2073]

I wonder how many more of these Czechoslovakians are out there spying on us.

Edited May 27 by Bojack

[SaucyJack 3488]

“ that illegal came through the southern border!”

—prolly somebody on Fox today

[Brisketexan 104950]

I wonder how many more of these Czechoslovakians are out there spying on us.

“He was an interior decorator!”

[Ten Bears 2479]

"His house looked like shit."

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13562]

Should throw his corpse through one of these fucksticks' living room window.

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19407]

On 5/27/2024 at 12:04 AM, InkaUtexas said:

Not that many Chechens up in that part of the country.

So did your dad kill him with his bare hands, or did he shoot him? 

[InkaUtexas 25837]

5 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So did your dad kill him with his bare hands, or did he shoot him? 

Dad does not live up there anymore. I will ask him when I see him.

[TeeDubya 3361]

Don’t forget to close the door, you born in a barn?

 

 

[Gatorubet 30179]

China’s biggest advantage is the same as Russia’s: brutality.  Especially brutality towards their own people.  Just send wave after wave after wave of all those extra There are lots of reasons they could swamp Taiwan with that.
 

 

Edited June 2 by Gatorubet

[TeeDubya 3361]

This is big, if true…..

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21154]

13 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

This is big, if true…..

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13498]

14 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

This is big, if true…..

 

I'm in favor of US weapons being used on any area or facility which is directly involved in facilitating the Ukraine war, including the Kremlin. but I recognize that probably firing on the Kremlin would most likely escalate the situation.

[Horn Dog 9794]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm in favor of US weapons being used on any area or facility which is directly involved in facilitating the Ukraine war, including the Kremlin. but I recognize that probably firing on the Kremlin would most likely escalate the situation.

Agree and fuck them.  We need to call their bluff.  They are not gonna go nuclear cause if they do China is gonna realize this is quickly getting out of control in their backyard and will get off their ass, which may be the only way to end this shit anyway.  Make it very clear that if they escalate, so do we and then follow through. 

[HenryJames 65975]

22 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

Don’t forget to close the door, you born in a barn?

 

 

Looks like he was about to hit Submit Reply on a Daily Texan thread.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13498]

13 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Agree and fuck them.  We need to call their bluff.  They are not gonna go nuclear cause if they do China is gonna realize this is quickly getting out of control in their backyard and will get off their ass, which may be the only way to end this shit anyway.  Make it very clear that if they escalate, so do we and then follow through. 

China and India will have already communicated to Russia that nuclear weapons including the threat of, are off the table. Russia still has other available threats including attacks on NATO countries. 

[YGIFS 19449]

We've got some experts on this war on this whole board, so they can correct me if I'm wrong.  But a working theory from AEI is that Russia re-upped (again) infantry and armor.  It has been a rough month for Ukraine and even with the new aid packages from Germany & United States, it will take through summer to make a significant impact.  After that, they go back on the defensive/losing side.  They don't deploy tactical battlefield nukes, but do in fact invade or at least aerially attack a Balkan or Baltic member of NATO.  Article 5 is invoked.  U.S. Military boots/assets hit the ground and air in the Autumn and Biden gets blamed for starting us off into another bloody war.  Trump wins, Russia withdraws from whichever NATO country because he can't maintain two theaters.  And then refocus on Ukraine which gets no further assistance from the United States, which results in its demise.  

But I know Russia would never do anything to sway one of our elections.  Since the Kennedy administration, they've shown they have no interest in how we preserve our Democratic system of elections.  

[Horn Dog 9794]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China and India will have already communicated to Russia that nuclear weapons including the threat of, are off the table. Russia still has other available threats including attacks on NATO countries. 

I conventional war with NUCS completely off the table between Russia and NATO??