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Posted (edited)

at this point it's pretty obvious that Putin has been in a near 2 year holding pattern on Ukraine, waiting on a friendly US negotiating team that would gladly accept his terms for ending the war.

Edited by yoladu
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Posted
1 hour ago, yoladu said:

at this point it's pretty obvious that Putin has been in a near 2 year holding pattern on Ukraine, waiting on a friendly US negotiating team that would gladly accept his terms for ending the war.

Just hanging on to see if Elmo would delivery.  And here we are.

Posted
1 hour ago, yoladu said:

at this point it's pretty obvious that Putin has been in a near 2 year holding pattern on Ukraine, waiting on a friendly US negotiating team that would gladly accept his terms for ending the war.

Let's hope Ukraine tells them both to get bent.

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Posted
51 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

LiveupdatesUS-RussiatalksonUkraineTrumpadministrationnewsCNNPolitics.thumb.jpeg.b83d0068c4b645a6554f9f8820ac6ef7.jpeg

Nailed @Laxtonto. Trump is totally playing hardball with Russia now. Really solid foresight and analysis. Or just complete fucking garbage. Whatever. 

On 1/22/2025 at 11:34 AM, Laxtonto said:

It looks like Trump has begun the stick part of the carrot and the stick public negotiations to end the war. Interestingly, what many of us alluded to was true; the US never went all out economically and politically against Russia. This is one of those aspects that a change in regime means it is acceptable to wholesale change approaches.

Now look for the carrot...

 

On 1/23/2025 at 10:03 AM, Laxtonto said:

It is obvious Trump wants the war over and by tapping Kellog to be his envoy it implies that the direction they are going to go is similar to what Kellog and Fleitz proposed in June. That was a full stop everywhere and an eventual rollback to 2022 borders and delaying Ukrainian NATO membership for 10 years or so to allow Russia time to plan for these new eventualities and then some type of carrot for both Russia and the Ukraine as far as rebuilding goes. If Russia doesn't agree, the idea was full-on crippling sanctions of Russia and anyone doing any form of trade with Russia (so no oil caps for the sale of Russia oil to India, straight embargo, no 3rd party sales of anything to Russia, no electronic access to anything from the rest of the world) and the gloves come off militarily in how we provide aid. The problem now is since June when the plan was developed Ukraine is in a worse position and much of that can be attributed to a failure by the prior administration to let them fight the war the way it needed to be fought.

Looking back in retrospect, I think it is fairly obvious that the prior administration (and to some extent the EU) was more interested in winning the PR war than the Ukraine war. The assumption was winning the PR war would mean the real war would follow in line.

I will use the delivery of the F15s as an example. We spent a huge amount of time and money dedicated to training, equipping, and maintaining these systems, but all they are being used for is drone and cruise missile interdiction. No hardcore attacks with air-ground systems to wipe out the Kerch bridge. No systematic destruction over Crimea via the Black Sea. We provided Ukraine with a super expensive toy that should be an extreme force multiplier. Still, due to a variety of reasons, it is a net waste of capital and time if compared with more conventional weapons systems of the same value.

How many decisions mirror this? I applaud the initial idea of sending Abrams, but it is painfully obvious the Bradley is much better suited for this war and yet we still have approximately 1500 still in storage. From a MRO standpoint, why not admit the Abrams are not what is needed and swap them out 2 for 1 with Bradleys? Simplify the MRO side and provide Ukraine what they can use more effectively.  The red lines with the ATCAMS, the limiting of weapon systems uses and variants.

It is sad to say that I have much greater hope that there will be a "positive" result with Trump than I am with Biden. It won't be what I want, but I don't think the 2 or 4 more years of a slow grinding war is something I can stomach either.

 

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Posted

Please UK, France, Poland, Netherlands and others, please, please, please send troops to the Eastern Front. This is not a drill, the US is no longer able to support you. Please, we are begging you, John has a long mustache.

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Posted

well, i can. we put a raging narcissist in charge the most emotionally unfit, yet powerful country on earth.

we get hissy fits that work. there is no stopping them until we simply are not that powerful any longer. 

its awful and thats certainly coming. 

and as brisket says, don't worry, its only going to get worse. 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Nailed @Laxtonto. Trump is totally playing hardball with Russia now. Really solid foresight and analysis. Or just complete fucking garbage. Whatever. 

 

 

@Laxtonto’s post is good but where it errs is in ascribing entirely too much thought and agency to people like Kellog and understates the extent to which PR drives current actions of Trump, more than Biden.  That’s not a critique, it’s just that intelligent people nearly always understate how truly stupid this is. 
 

Anything you see stated by Kellog or Rubio or Waltz is just retconned justification of whatever Trump has announced.  There is zero active planning or strategy. It’s all aimed at two goals of DJT: a summit with Putin and being told he “ended the war.”

Right now the Russians have suggested that both things can happen and a general outline has emerged:

1. negotiations begin 

2. elections in Ukraine 

3. peace deal

We seek to be amendable to this and it will result in a total Russian victory because in step two we will acquiesce— or maybe assist— to Russia installing a pro-Kremlin puppet.  On the margins we may agree to further concessions in Europe.

But the point is that no one aside from Trump and Musk are acting with any agency here and they are in complete react mode. 
 

And that is bad enough but what is worse is that there ARE some people acting with agency on other fronts.  A despite the mantra of a “realist” foreign policy they are in fact behaving like wild eyed revolutionaries bent on exporting ideology.  And their animating purpose is attacking liberal democracy, wherever it exists, as the primary threat to the United States’ current regime. 
 

And in a sense they are correct, because Russia and China are happy to let Trump destroy us while liberal democratic Europe, Canada, and the Anglosphere are more likely inspire us to course correct and help us do it.  In this we have internalized Putinism.  The threat Ukraine posed was always ideological and not military; a free and prosperous democratic Ukraine would show Russians that it was possible.  

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Posted

Is there a website that I can go and place a significant wager on that in the near future Ukraine will be called upon to come to the aide of the U.S.A. in it's fight to preserve our own democracy?

 

It's to bolster my retirement fund in a different country. Thanks!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

@Laxtonto’s post is good but where it errs is in ascribing entirely too much thought and agency to people like Kellog and understates the extent to which PR drives current actions of Trump, more than Biden.  That’s not a critique, it’s just that intelligent people nearly always understate how truly stupid this is. 
 

Anything you see stated by Kellog or Rubio or Waltz is just retconned justification of whatever Trump has announced.  There is zero active planning or strategy. It’s all aimed at two goals of DJT: a summit with Putin and being told he “ended the war.”

Right now the Russians have suggested that both things can happen and a general outline has emerged:

1. negotiations begin 

2. elections in Ukraine 

3. peace deal

We seek to be amendable to this and it will result in a total Russian victory because in step two we will acquiesce— or maybe assist— to Russia installing a pro-Kremlin puppet.  On the margins we may agree to further concessions in Europe.

But the point is that no one aside from Trump and Musk are acting with any agency here and they are in complete react mode. 
 

And that is bad enough but what is worse is that there ARE some people acting with agency on other fronts.  A despite the mantra of a “realist” foreign policy they are in fact behaving like wild eyed revolutionaries bent on exporting ideology.  And their animating purpose is attacking liberal democracy, wherever it exists, as the primary threat to the United States’ current regime. 
 

And in a sense they are correct, because Russia and China are happy to let Trump destroy us while liberal democratic Europe, Canada, and the Anglosphere are more likely inspire us to course correct and help us do it.  In this we have internalized Putinism.  The threat Ukraine posed was always ideological and not military; a free and prosperous democratic Ukraine would show Russians that it was possible.  

His response is hot trash because he assumes Trump is engaging in a proactive logical strategy with noble intentions. He’s not. Your own response suggests the same. 

the US has in one month flipped from an albeit too conservative (descriptive not political) but wildly successful strategy to bleed Russia economically, militarily and demographically, to a a pro-Putin ally likely to align with Russia opposite Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Laxtonto’s entire approach fails to recognize this, yet yours does but still says his response is good.  
 

The only reason as you state why russia wants an election in Ukraine is to steal the election so Ukraine will acquiesce to no western troops, no change in borders or worse more for Russia, and no NATO. If Trump also agrees to pull troops from the balkans and poland my god! 

there is nothing about trump here that says he’s in control of anything - unless he’s intentionally aligning with Putin which is very possible. Either he’s an aspiring autocrat or he’s owned by Putin, or both.  Laxtonto recognizes none of this in his response.

Edited by troph
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Posted (edited)

DT isn’t the place for this well I actually think today was a devastating news day for Ukraine. I think it’s over. I think Russia and Trump will gaslight Ukraine into elections or cutting off aid (including prohibitions of US military weapons and ammunition being sold) to Ukraine and it will be a master class on gas lighting and the right wing factions of the western world will eat it up. Ukraine is fascist, Ukraine is authoritarian, Ukraine is ruled by a dictator who has suspended elections, and either Zelenskyy will relent and settle without the concessions he needs or elections will happen and Putin will FA but won’t FO.

I truly think today was the darkest day for democracy in many many generations.

I’m really distressed about this. 

Edited by troph
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, troph said:

DT isn’t the place for this well I actually think today was a devastating news day for Ukraine. I think it’s over. I think Russia and Trump will gaslight Ukraine into elections or cutting off aid (including prohibitions of US military weapons and ammunition being sold) to Ukraine and it will be a master class on gas lighting and the right wing factions of the western world will eat it up. Ukraine is fascist, Ukraine is authoritarian, Ukraine is ruled by a dictator who has suspended elections, and either Zelenskyy will relent and settle without the concessions he needs or elections will happen and Putin will FA but won’t FO.

I truly think today was the darkest day for democracy in many many generations.

I’m really distressed about this. 

And all this is possible because a bunch of uneducated, greedy, easily brainwashed morons actually think Trump's evil bullshit benefits them in some way. 

The right wing propaganda machine has destroyed truth with mountains of lies. The social media algorithms have turned this into a dystopian society. We didn't require aliens or AI enslaving is and hooking us up to the matrix. This society, and many around the world, willfully bought smart phones, downloaded social media apps, and hooked themselves to the matrix. The people hooked their own chains around their necks and enslaved themselves to lies and false reality. 

I don't think there's any reversing it now. This hatred fueled society that turns to tyrants to fight tyranny, and turns to liars to fight lies, is unsustainable. It will destroy itself. And there's nothing anyone can do about it now. We just have to each decide if we will

1) give in and become part of insanity

2) stand up against society and stand for truth and honor in the face of defeat and destruction

3) give up and check out

Every one of us will have to make this decision. 

Edited by Hermanator
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Posted (edited)

image.gif.810b56476811f2c4de22b38e435062ed.gif*

 

 

 

 

 

* that's how im feeling tonight anyway. but it's been bitterly cold and snowy for a few days and i think i'm feeling it, really longing for absolute ignorance.

but it'll be in the 60s and sunny ☀️ again by the weekend, and every day gets longer... maybe by glorious summer i'll be feeling more fight. 

we'll see what fresh hell hath been unleashed upon the world by the good old USofA by then. 

unlike our resident maga cretins i'll never, ever align my worldview with texags🖕

Edited by mchookem
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Posted (edited)

I woke up thinking Zel has to do a deal with Trump and he has to make sure at least Europe can (and will) put boots on the ground. Then hope like hell Russia is too weak economically, militarily and demographically to mount any offensive in the Balkans for at least 3.5 years, and Europe needs to step the fuck up. The goal on this has to be to wait Russia out on this until enough carnage occurs over here Trump and his cronies suffer a political blood bath (at the ballot box). Then the US can cancel its own bullshit agreement and move on with doing the right thing. It’s not guaranteed but it’s become the only play. 

 

Edited by troph
Posted
5 hours ago, mchookem said:

image.gif.810b56476811f2c4de22b38e435062ed.gif*

 

 

 

 

 

* that's how im feeling tonight anyway. but it's been bitterly cold and snowy for a few days and i think i'm feeling it, really longing for absolute ignorance.

but it'll be in the 60s and sunny ☀️ again by the weekend, and every day gets longer... maybe by glorious summer i'll be feeling more fight. 

we'll see what fresh hell hath been unleashed upon the world by the good old USofA by then. 

unlike our resident maga cretins i'll never, ever align my worldview with texags🖕

Well now I want to put on Inglorious Bastards and remember a time when the only good nazi was a dead nazi.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Well now I want to put on Inglorious Bastards and remember a time when the only good nazi was a dead nazi.

We watched it a few months ago. Great film.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, troph said:

Europe needs to step the fuck up

The only good that seems to be coming of this shitshow is that Europe (writ large) is having to step the fuck up and take more control of its own security.  They had become too dependent on us, and we only too happy, apparently, to secure them.

And I don't mean this on a "transactional" basis, as in how much they spend on defense, or how much we spend on their defense, they just need to take more responsibility, I think.

Like a lot of Trumpian "policies," there is a tiny nugget of truth somewhere in the enormous, steaming pile of shit, and the above seems to be it.

I'm kinda thinking and hoping that by doing this, giving them an external enemy, Europe (again writ large) can turn away from fascist, nationalist populism sooner than later.

I think once Europe bands together against the Russian threat, shitbag appeasers like Orban and his marginal country will begin to be ostracized.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The only good that seems to be coming of this shitshow is that Europe (writ large) is having to step the fuck up and take more control of its own security.  They had become too dependent on us, and we only too happy, apparently, to secure them.

And I don't mean this on a "transactional" basis, as in how much they spend on defense, or how much we spend on their defense, they just need to take more responsibility, I think.

Like a lot of Trumpian "policies," there is a tiny nugget of truth somewhere in the enormous, steaming pile of shit, and the above seems to be it.

I'm kinda thinking and hoping that by doing this, giving them an external enemy, Europe (again writ large) can turn away from fascist, nationalist populism sooner than later.

there's a lot more going on here, not just political will, but a lack of manufacturing infrastructure and the US can easily prohibit the sale of arms to Ukraine or the use of them in defense of Ukraine. Europe's own demographic problems. ramping up military might is a decades long strategy and Europe needs to do it but it's for WWIII in 20 years - if it can wait that long. And that's if they act NOW. Trump has so many cards here, this is a very, very dangerous time for Europe and Ukraine. Intensely dangerous.  The only possible way out is for Trump to get his ass handed to him (along with Congress) in 2 and 4 years and Russia is too weak to take advantage over the next 3 years.

Edited by troph
Posted
48 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The only good that seems to be coming of this shitshow is that Europe (writ large) is having to step the fuck up and take more control of its own security.  They had become too dependent on us, and we only too happy, apparently, to secure them.

And I don't mean this on a "transactional" basis, as in how much they spend on defense, or how much we spend on their defense, they just need to take more responsibility, I think.

Like a lot of Trumpian "policies," there is a tiny nugget of truth somewhere in the enormous, steaming pile of shit, and the above seems to be it.

I'm kinda thinking and hoping that by doing this, giving them an external enemy, Europe (again writ large) can turn away from fascist, nationalist populism sooner than later.

I think once Europe bands together against the Russian threat, shitbag appeasers like Orban and his marginal country will begin to be ostracized.

Or it causes a new arms buildup like the one that helped start WW1.

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Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

The only good that seems to be coming of this shitshow is that Europe (writ large) is having to step the fuck up and take more control of its own security.  They had become too dependent on us, and we only too happy, apparently, to secure them.

And I don't mean this on a "transactional" basis, as in how much they spend on defense, or how much we spend on their defense, they just need to take more responsibility, I think.

Like a lot of Trumpian "policies," there is a tiny nugget of truth somewhere in the enormous, steaming pile of shit, and the above seems to be it.

I'm kinda thinking and hoping that by doing this, giving them an external enemy, Europe (again writ large) can turn away from fascist, nationalist populism sooner than later.

I think once Europe bands together against the Russian threat, shitbag appeasers like Orban and his marginal country will begin to be ostracized.

Unfortunately, the external enemy we are giving them is us. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, kevwun said:

Or it causes a new arms buildup like the one that helped start WW1.

I may re-read of The Guns of August instead of doomscrolling for the next couple weeks.

Posted
Just now, softlynow said:

I may re-read of The Guns of August instead of doomscrolling for the next couple weeks.

These days, reading any history book covering around 1900 to 1945 IS "doomscrolling" due to parallels and shit.

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Posted
1 minute ago, softlynow said:

Except 1939, if you're aggy.

Dude.....you haven't been paying attention to how genuinely shitty this timeline is.  At this point, a preseason unranked aggy stumblefucking their way into a national championship seems like a certainty.  Every roll of the dice these days turns up snake eyes.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.....you haven't been paying attention to how genuinely shitty this timeline is.  At this point, a preseason unranked aggy stumblefucking their way into a national championship seems like a certainty.  Every roll of the dice these days turns up snake eyes.

Man don't speak that shit into existence. We have enough horror to deal with. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.....you haven't been paying attention to how genuinely shitty this timeline is.  At this point, a preseason unranked aggy stumblefucking their way into a national championship seems like a certainty.  Every roll of the dice these days turns up snake eyes.

tropic-thunder-watch.gif

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.....you haven't been paying attention to how genuinely shitty this timeline is.  At this point, a preseason unranked aggy stumblefucking their way into a national championship seems like a certainty.  Every roll of the dice these days turns up snake eyes.

I will never lose all hope that some things are immutable. I didn't lose that hope when Charlie botched a coin toss, when Arky held us to one Watson in Houston, when our HFC cried on the sidelines and when aggy landed the "best recruiting class EVARRR," and certainly won't now.

Now, democracy? That's done. Every other decent thing about this country? Yeah, America is shit just like all the other countries to exist. The very idea that we'll go down swinging before handing almost literally everything of value over to New York and South African conmen and a Russian autocrat? No, looks like we'll just type out our grievance then trudge willingly into proverbial boxcars.

But, my good man, aggy will always be aggy. See, box score aggy at Texas, 1/25/2025.

Posted
Just now, softlynow said:

I will never lose all hope that some things are immutable. I didn't lose that hope when Charlie botched a coin toss, when Arky held us to one Watson in Houston, when our HFC cried on the sidelines and when aggy landed the "best recruiting class EVARRR," and certainly won't now.

Now, democracy? That's done. Every other decent thing about this country? Yeah, America is shit just like all the other countries to exist. The very idea that we'll go down swinging before handing almost literally everything of value over to New York and South African conmen and a Russian autocrat? No, looks like we'll just type out our grievance then trudge willingly into proverbial boxcars.

But, my good man, aggy will always be aggy. See, box score aggy at Texas, 1/25/2025.

Boy.  You guys REALLY haven't grasped how insanely shitty this timeline is, have you?

It is shitty beyond even your capacity to imagine.  Imagine how shitty things can be.  Then triple that.  Then quadruple it.  Then realize it's infinitely more shitty than that.

Posted
20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I know y'all don't want to hear it.  But tell me how that outcome does NOT fit in to the new universal constants: 1) it only gets worse, and 2) there is no bottom.

This Is The Darkest Timeline Vest By CharGrilled

Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I know y'all don't want to hear it.  But tell me how that outcome does NOT fit in to the new universal constants: 1) it only gets worse, and 2) there is no bottom.

Look on the bright side: if there is no bottom, things could always be worse.

Edited by David Dennison
Posted
5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think we all need to understand that the correct historical analogy at this point isn’t Chamberlain in 1938, it’s Stalin in 1939.

image.thumb.png.528efe4272b35c4f4fa5a3881d5eb79a.png

Donald Trump is not Stalin and making that analogy does no one any good.

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