Ukraine War

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

7 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

I have another question for the forum:

Based on the current Russian clown-show that they have revealed themselves to be, do you think the old 70's-80's Soviet Union would have been more effective in their operations? Is this indicative of Putin ruining his military or is this of incompetence something that is always pervasive in Russia military operations?

 

Russia gonna Russia, homey. This is just a modern example of the way they have always been.

[Hookah Horns 3077]

It's hard to fathom that these chucklefucks put the first man in space. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

7 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

I have another question for the forum:

Based on the current Russian clown-show that they have revealed themselves to be, do you think the old 70's-80's Soviet Union would have been more effective in their operations? Is this indicative of Putin ruining his military or is this of incompetence something that is always pervasive in Russia military operations?

 

Russia has always been an overrated gas station. That being said, I think the Oligarchs have been siphoning lots of money away from the military. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Love the Russian response about the Moskva sinking. 
 

on board ammunition exploding sounds like they were Arizona’ed.

[TreatyOak 16149]

18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Russia gonna Russia, homey. This is just a modern example of the way they have always been.

WWII began in much the same way for the Russians as the Ukraine War has. They began with their disastrous invasion of Finland, which they managed to pull together somewhat  towards the end, followed by the Nazi's running all over them for a year or two. Eventually they learned from the Germans and were able to improve their equipment and tactics and eventually outperformed their enemy. 

Is there a fear that they will improve their performance against the Ukrainians or was this war always un-winnable? 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

19 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

WWII began in much the same way for the Russians as the Ukraine War has. They began with their disastrous invasion of Finland, which they managed to pull together somewhat  towards the end, followed by the Nazi's running all over them for a year or two. Eventually they learned from the Germans and were able to improve their equipment and tactics and eventually outperformed their enemy. 

Is there a fear that they will improve their performance against the Ukrainians or was this war always un-winnable? 

are you sure we're not writing a school paper for you?

there isn't time to shift anything. Russia has played pretty much every card they HAVE, save the one that no one wants them to even consider. they need decades, likely, to catch up to the US. and what other countries lack in numbers they make up for in technology and training. If Russia isn't careful they will end up isolated like NK and their citizens won't stand for it. Many have experienced western style living and like the ease and convenience it brings. not many are going to want to go back to an agrarian lifestyle because one man lost his mind

Edited April 15, 2022 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Pods 7526]

4 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

WWII began in much the same way for the Russians as the Ukraine War has. They began with their disastrous invasion of Finland, which they managed to pull together somewhat  towards the end, followed by the Nazi's running all over them for a year or two. Eventually they learned from the Germans and were able to improve their equipment and tactics and eventually outperformed their enemy. 

Is there a fear that they will improve their performance against the Ukrainians or was this war always un-winnable? 

Only if the West takes our eye off the ball and let up on the assistance.

Russia has lost a catastrophic amount of equipment that they can't replace.

As long as the US and NATO keep flooding Ukraine with weapons, especially if we make more of an effort to get them more of the heavy shit the UA needs, Russia learning from their mistakes will be too little too late. 

[TreatyOak 16149]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

are you sure we're not writing a school paper for you?

there isn't time to shift anything. Russia has played pretty much every card they, save the one that no one wants them to even consider. they need decades, likely, to catch up to the US. and what other countries lack in numbers they make up for in technology and training. If Russia isn't careful they will end up isolated like NK and their citizens won't stand for it. Many have experienced western style living and like the ease and convenience it brings. not many are going to want to go back to an agrarian lifestyle because one man lost his mind

Of course I'm not asking you to write a school paper for me! Jeez, how could you even think that?

Hey, if you don't mind, could please you cite four credible literary sources that document the comments that people have made responding to my questions by 2pm today?    

[Hookah Horns 3077]

23 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Love the Russian response about the Moskva sinking. 
 

on board ammunition exploding sounds like they were Arizona’ed.

It's hilarious they think their ship sinking because their sailors threw lit cigarettes in the magazine or some shit is a better look for them than getting hit by a missile during a war. I think it's just that hard to stop lying about everything when you've been compulsively doing it for so long. 

[horn4life 3755]

This next part of the war unfortunately does favor Russia.  Numerically they can likely make headway via obliteration.  But IF, IF, IF, Ukraine can again over perform, and prevent an effective land bridge?  Then Russia starts to get a lot more worried about their own space, and the potential of being driven into the sea in Crimea.  Unfortunately it's not the most likely scenario, but still seemingly to a small degree within the realm of possibility.  Sinking the Moscow, was a big deal.  The propaganda of course but it provided a safety net for much of the region from air attack.  

I also assume that a LOT more shit has poured in than what we read about in the Newspapers.  I would not be at all surprised to find out we were pushing in a lot more shit, a lot earlier than a lot of people thought when history takes a look back.  I hope this is the case.  I am also praying that the economic and political damage inside Russia is rising, and that cash flow is already being seen as reaching an endpoint within sight from the Russians actual fiscal math.  The better the good guys can do in the upcoming battles that should be tilted in Russia's favor the more cash gets burned and the more perilous Putin's position becomes.

I am really praying the cash burn rate is a lot worse than most of the experts believe...

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

11 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Of course I'm not asking you to write a school paper for me! Jeez, how could you even think that?

Hey, if you don't mind, could please you cite four credible literary sources that document the comments that people have made responding to my questions by 2pm today?    

Hell there’s four sources right here on the surly just drop some screen names on em. Not gonna comment on the credible part though.

[Hookah Horns 3077]

9 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

are you sure we're not writing a school paper for you?

there isn't time to shift anything. Russia has played pretty much every card they, save the one that no one wants them to even consider. they need decades, likely, to catch up to the US. and what other countries lack in numbers they make up for in technology and training. If Russia isn't careful they will end up isolated like NK and their citizens won't stand for it. Many have experienced western style living and like the ease and convenience it brings. not many are going to want to go back to an agrarian lifestyle because one man lost his mind

They're going to be isolated, but just from the West and nothing like NK. There are plenty of clown countries like India and China who won't let a little invasion and genocide get in the way of a good deal. NK on the other hand doesn't have much anyone wants, and doesn't much care about trading internationally for anything other than Kim's Courvoisier or pirated US DVDs for him to beat off to. They get off to being "self-reliant," even if that includes people starving to death en masse.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:l. NK on the other have much anyone wants, They get off to being "self-reliant," even if that includes people starving to death en masse.

Hey what doesn’t kill ya makes you stronger.
Modern day Spartans they are by God !!

Edited April 15, 2022 by Onboard 2.0

[Hookah Horns 3077]

30 minutes ago, horn4life said:

This next part of the war unfortunately does favor Russia.  Numerically they can likely make headway via obliteration.  But IF, IF, IF, Ukraine can again over perform, and prevent an effective land bridge?  Then Russia starts to get a lot more worried about their own space, and the potential of being driven into the sea in Crimea.  Unfortunately it's not the most likely scenario, but still seemingly to a small degree within the realm of possibility.  Sinking the Moscow, was a big deal.  The propaganda of course but it provided a safety net for much of the region from air attack.  

I also assume that a LOT more shit has poured in than what we read about in the Newspapers.  I would not be at all surprised to find out we were pushing in a lot more shit, a lot earlier than a lot of people thought when history takes a look back.  I hope this is the case.  I am also praying that the economic and political damage inside Russia is rising, and that cash flow is already being seen as reaching an endpoint within sight from the Russians actual fiscal math.  The better the good guys can do in the upcoming battles that should be tilted in Russia's favor the more cash gets burned and the more perilous Putin's position becomes.

I am really praying the cash burn rate is a lot worse than most of the experts believe...

 

Eastern Ukraine is going to get pulverized, no doubt about it. The best hope seems to be basically dragging out the rate of destruction long enough and inflict enough losses on the Russians that Putin starts to feel real domestic pressure from their soldier's deaths and the financial costs. 

I hope that's true about what we're sending, but unfortunately we bizarrely seem to think we have to announce a detailed manifest of everything that we send. If I were president I'd be coy AF about what I was sending while telling the press stuff like "Putin's going to shit all over himself when he sees what we've given them." It'd be nice to play on their innate paranoia some more. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Hookah Horns

[Pods 7526]

3 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

They're going to be isolated, but just from the West and nothing like NK. There are plenty of clown countries like India and China who won't let a little invasion and genocide get in the way of a good deal. NK on the other hand doesn't have much anyone wants, and doesn't much care about trading internationally for anything other than Kim's Courvoisier or pirated US DVDs for him to beat off to. They get off to being "self-reliant," even if that includes people starving to death en masse.

It's well past time for the West to start looking critically at the actions of India and China and start holding them accountable.

China, especially, should no longer be considered a developing nation. They are clearly Superpower #2. The favorable treatment and lower standards needed to be stopped a long time ago. If they want to get in bed with Russia, sanction their asses.

Regardless of if they get further in bed with Russia, this shows the folly of relying on dictatorships as a major trading partner. The West needs to pull our manufacturing and the US needs to focus on building the capability and prosperity in our own hemisphere.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

 

[Hookah Horns 3077]

Just now, Pods said:

It's well past time for the West to start looking critically at the actions of India and China and start holding them accountable.

China, especially, should no longer be considered a developing nation. They are clearly Superpower #2. The favorable treatment and lower standards needed to be stopped a long time ago. If they want to get in bed with Russia, sanction their asses.

Regardless of if they get further in bed with Russia, this shows the folly of relying on dictatorships as a major trading partner. The West needs to pull our manufacturing and the US needs to focus on building the capability and prosperity in our own hemisphere.  

We're so enmeshed with China economically that I don't think this is feasible. And I think it's fair to say our economy is more dependent on them than vice versa. 

It'd be nice to tell India to suck our dick, but we don't want to force them to fully bloc up with Russia and China. That'd be bad. Plus corporate america would apparently die without all those cheap customer service call centers where we can't understand half or more of what's said. 

[Pods 7526]

1 minute ago, Hookah Horns said:

We're so enmeshed with China economically that I don't think this is feasible. And I think it's fair to say our economy is more dependent on them than vice versa. 

It'd be nice to tell India to suck our dick, but we don't want to force them to fully bloc up with Russia and China. That'd be bad. Plus corporate america would apparently die without all those cheap customer service call centers where we can't understand half or more of what's said. 

Oh, I agree. It's not feasible at all in the short-term, which is why the best time to start was years ago. The second best time is right now. 

It would take a deliberate and monumental shift that we are extremely unlikely to take, but we are funding our own demise if we don't. 

[Hookah Horns 3077]

3 minutes ago, Pods said:

Oh, I agree. It's not feasible at all in the short-term, which is why the best time to start was years ago. The second best time is right now. 

It would take a deliberate and monumental shift that we are extremely unlikely to take, but we are funding our own demise if we don't. 

Yeah, if the combination of all their Covid bullshit and them aiding and abetting an invasive and genocidal Russia aren't going to do the trick, nothing will. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Hookah Horns

[Brisketexan 104585]

1 minute ago, Pods said:

Oh, I agree. It's not feasible at all in the short-term, which is why the best time to start was years ago. The second best time is right now. 

It would take a deliberate and monumental shift that we are extremely unlikely to take, but we are funding our own demise if we don't. 

The bolded, 100%.  We need to have a good counter to China's strategy.  We have a strategic interest -- meaning a governmental, defense, and military interest -- in not depending on China for so much important shit.  

We should begin sinking billions into developing the Central American Technology and Manufacturing Zone.  90% of what is being fabricated/produced in China today can be produced in Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala in less than 10 years.  Sink money into infrastructure, facilities, and manufacturing.  Save a fortune on shipping.  Create prosperity in our own hemisphere.  Stabilize formerly poor countries so they are not such a source of crime and don't lose their population as they flee to the north.  it's a win-win-win-win.

Treating China as a geopolitical rival requires some much bigger thinking than we've been doing.  Tariffs?  That's like being married to a hell-bitch who uses you for your money and who you hate, and giving her the silent treatment hoping that will change things.  No.  You need to be working to move the fuck out out and get yourself a new gal.

[TreatyOak 16149]

17 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

 I hope that's true about what we're sending, but unfortunately we bizarrely seem to think we have to announce a detailed manifest of everything that we send. If I were president I'd be coy AF about what I was sending while telling the press stuff like "Putin's going to shit all over himself when he sees what we've given them." It'd be nice to play on their innate paranoia some more. 

Right? Spelling out exactly what lines we won't cross, detailing what we will and won't send, etc, doesn't make sense. Putin always talks in generalities about what he will do if we enter the fight and it has scared the crap out of everyone. We should do the same. 

[Hookah Horns 3077]

2 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Right? Spelling out exactly what lines we won't cross, detailing what we will and won't send, etc, doesn't make sense. Putin always talks in generalities about what he will do if we enter the fight and it has scared the crap out of everyone. We should do the same. 

The fact that we're walking on eggshells like this (to the extent you can while funding and arming people killing a bunch of Russians) is starting to be rather concerning to me. Maybe Biden has Putin in his head, but it seems more likely that (i) we've got solid intelligence that Putin really is out of his mind, gives no fucks anymore and is looking for an excuse to hit the red button or at least start WWIII, and/or (ii) this is more about the loaded gun Russia has pointed at our collective heads in cyberspace, which we can't do anything to defend against or assure an equivalent reprisal. 

Needless to say, it'd be fascinating to see what messages are being exchanged on the "red phone" (which in reality is basically a secure email system rather than a phone hotline).

[Brisketexan 104585]

17 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Right? Spelling out exactly what lines we won't cross, detailing what we will and won't send, etc, doesn't make sense. Putin always talks in generalities about what he will do if we enter the fight and it has scared the crap out of everyone. We should do the same. 

Counterpoint: it's like the apocryphal college football powerhouse story.  Offense comes to the line, Center tells the DL "we're running it up the gut again, to my right," arrogant as shit because he knows the defense can't stop em.  I think there's some of that going on.  "Hey Russia....even when you know exactly what's coming, you can't stop it.  So, re-think your life choices, both now and going forward."

 

[Hookah Horns 3077]

17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded, 100%.  We need to have a good counter to China's strategy.  We have a strategic interest -- meaning a governmental, defense, and military interest -- in not depending on China for so much important shit.  

We should begin sinking billions into developing the Central American Technology and Manufacturing Zone.  90% of what is being fabricated/produced in China today can be produced in Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala in less than 10 years.  Sink money into infrastructure, facilities, and manufacturing.  Save a fortune on shipping.  Create prosperity in our own hemisphere.  Stabilize formerly poor countries so they are not such a source of crime and don't lose their population as they flee to the north.  it's a win-win-win-win.

Treating China as a geopolitical rival requires some much bigger thinking than we've been doing.  Tariffs?  That's like being married to a hell-bitch who uses you for your money and who you hate, and giving her the silent treatment hoping that will change things.  No.  You need to be working to move the fuck out out and get yourself a new gal.

Something I'm not clear on is twhy we've invested so much infrastructure in China and across Asia instead of the Americas. Was it about the Chinese having more of the necessary infrastructure in place than the Americas or being willing to cover more of the cost? Or did we just not trust the Americas to get their shit together enough to be reliable partners? In reading your post I just realized how little I know about our hemispherical neighbors' internal situations.

[jimmyjazz 45554]

Is it OK to start telling Russian jokes, like the Polish jokes in the olden times?

Asking for a friend.

[Brisketexan 104585]

1 minute ago, Hookah Horns said:

Something I'm not clear on is twhy we've invested so much infrastructure in China and across Asia instead of the Americas. Was it about the Chinese having more of the necessary infrastructure in place than the Americas or being willing to cover more of the cost? Or did we just not trust the Americas to get their shit together enough to be reliable partners? In reading your post I just realized how little I know about our hemispherical neighbors' internal situations.

My hypothesis has long been that to have the CHEAPEST manufacturing, you need a totalitarian government: one that will fuck over its labor pool and even deploy slave labor, and one that will give zero fucks environmentally.  China gives you that, and can keep a lid on a lot of the bad shit.

If we did the same stuff in Honduras, the stories would get out like crazy, we'd have massive protest and social justice movements raising unholy hell, and it couldn't be ignored the way it is in China, a communist totalitarian state literally an ocean away.

We'll have to pay slightly more for iPhones made in Honduras, because we can't get away with those workers being forced to work 90 hours per week, and those plants spewing the worst shit imaginable into the relatively nearby air and water.  But it can still be cheaper than making it domestically, and it's strategically more sound and you'll save a bit on shipping.

[Brisketexan 104585]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is it OK to start telling Russian jokes, like the Polish jokes in the olden times?

Asking for a friend.

Stephen Colbert is already running with it......

[Hookah Horns 3077]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: it's like the apocryphal college football powerhouse story.  Offense comes to the line, Center tells the DL "we're running it up the gut again, to my right," arrogant as shit because he knows the defense can't stop em.  I think there's some of that going on.  "Hey Russia....even when you know exactly what's coming, you can't stop it.  So, re-think your life choices, both now and going forward."

 

I'm not sure how much marginal demoralizing utility you get with that though. Your military getting its ass handed to them seems like it's carrying a lot of the demoralization weight on its own.

Also, continuing with the metaphor, in this case the powerhouse has promised before the game that they aren't prepared to do anything but run it up the gut, and for whatever reason you believe that's true. IMO it'd be much more psychologically devastating if you couldn't stop the basic stuff while knowing they've only shown you a fraction of their gameplan. In the former case you have hope that you can turn the tide, but in the other, even if you figure out a solution to the bread and butter up the gut you're gonna promptly get put out of your misery with a haymaker you have no chance of countering.

 

[Brisketexan 104585]

2 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

IMO it'd be much more psychologically devastating if you couldn't stop the basic stuff while knowing they've only shown you a fraction of their gameplan. In the former case you have hope that you can turn the tide, but in the other, even if you figure out a solution to the bread and butter up the gut you're gonna promptly get put out of your misery with a haymaker you have no chance of countering.

....Which is where Russia is.  NATO is just handing ground-based weapons to another country.  NATO hasn't brought out its air power....at all.  And Russia knows that if it did, its now obvious that the conventional war would be decided within a week.  NATO air power would eat Russia for lunch, and probably not lose but 40-50 aircraft total in the process.  What's left on the ground would be mopped up by motivated, well trained and well armed ground troops.  It would be a rout.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

....Which is where Russia is.  NATO is just handing ground-based weapons to another country.  NATO hasn't brought out its air power....at all.  And Russia knows that if it did, its now obvious that the conventional war would be decided within a week.  NATO air power would eat Russia for lunch, and probably not lose but 40-50 aircraft total in the process.  What's left on the ground would be mopped up by motivated, well trained and well armed ground troops.  It would be a rout.

not to mention nearly 1000 drones. 

[immamac 42516]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

....Which is where Russia is.  NATO is just handing ground-based weapons to another country.  NATO hasn't brought out its air power....at all.  And Russia knows that if it did, its now obvious that the conventional war would be decided within a week.  NATO air power would eat Russia for lunch, and probably not lose but 40-50 aircraft total in the process.  What's left on the ground would be mopped up by motivated, well trained and well armed ground troops.  It would be a rout.

you are being generous with the losses. F-22 and F-35 are equipped with lots of anti-get-shot-down measures and can outrange a lot of ground based anti-aircraft stuff that russia currently has deployed.

The only legitimate threat that Russia has is nuclear weapons, it's really a bummer that they would use them offensively if we didn't even attack on Russian soil.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

you are being generous with the losses. F-22 and F-35 are equipped with lots of anti-get-shot-down measures and can outrange a lot of ground based anti-aircraft stuff that russia currently has deployed.

The only legitimate threat that Russia has is nuclear weapons, it's really a bummer that they would use them offensively if we didn't even attack on Russian soil.

and based on the quality of their conventional weapons I'm not even sure how much of a threat their nukes are. might more of a threat to themselves. launch and detonate in place.

[Gatorubet 30088]

2 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

I have another question for the forum:

Based on the current Russian clown-show that they have revealed themselves to be, do you think the old 70's-80's Soviet Union would have been more effective in their operations? Is this indicative of Putin ruining his military or is this of incompetence something that is always pervasive in Russia military operations?

 

Corruption is part of Russia/Soviet culture.   But when the USSR fell, under the name of capitalism, the scale and depth of everybody stealing shit increases.   Add an emboldened and integrated Russia mob.   20 plus years of selling military equipment and  not using $ to maintain shit - b/c more layers of theft allowed and here we are.   

[Brisketexan 104585]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

you are being generous with the losses. F-22 and F-35 are equipped with lots of anti-get-shot-down measures and can outrange a lot of ground based anti-aircraft stuff that russia currently has deployed.

The only legitimate threat that Russia has is nuclear weapons, it's really a bummer that they would use them offensively if we didn't even attack on Russian soil.

Well, our combined air approach is certainly a huge advantage, particularly as it takes down AA defenses, which Russia actually has a decent set of.  I'm thinking we hit those losses simply as a function of the scale of the air action that would be required.  The Russkies would get off a good number of SAMs, and some would score hits.

[immamac 42516]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

and based on the quality of their conventional weapons I'm not even sure how much of a threat their nukes are. might more of a threat to themselves. launch and detonate in place.

that's not really how nukes work. There is a high chance that they either don't detonate or detonate significantly late and thus are far less effective or that the yield would be significantly less because they are not properly maintained.

I think it's a near certainty that even if they used nuclear weapons that they would be nowhere near as efficient or effective as they should be, but even at 10% effectiveness thats a fucking incredible loss of life still, which is the problem.

[Gatorubet 30088]

Great 3 minute summation of Russia’s problem. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Gatorubet

[bolverk 29399]

1 hour ago, TreatyOak said:

WWII began in much the same way for the Russians as the Ukraine War has. They began with their disastrous invasion of Finland, which they managed to pull together somewhat  towards the end, followed by the Nazi's running all over them for a year or two. Eventually they learned from the Germans and were able to improve their equipment and tactics and eventually outperformed their enemy. 

Is there a fear that they will improve their performance against the Ukrainians or was this war always un-winnable? 

I'm going to preface this with saying I only spent a couple of months during a study abroad program in a small town in the former East Germany in the summer of 1993, shortly after the reunification but before Russian Army leases had expired. Also, I've never served in the military.

During that summer, I stayed with a family who had a gigantic glass jar full of aluminum East German Deutschmarks (still have a few) that are/were worthless. Being a country house, it also had a not-insignificant number of sticky-icky fly strips hanging from the dining room ceiling to deter the flying bugs from eating our Mettbrötchen.

Every weekend, this class of 20-30 Texas college students piled onto what-looked-like a church bus to go on some field trip to visit a historic site or mingle with recently liberated East Germans at a Martk. On one of those trips, our bus slowed down dramatically on an unstriped, barely two-lane road surrounded by fields. It turns out, we'd come upon a column of Russian Army Ural-4320s parked along the side of the road.

As a child of the 1980s and fed with a diet of "Wolverines!", "99 Red Balloons", "The Day After", and "Oppenheimer's deadly toy", I couldn't help but think to myself that we'd been raised to be afraid of a sad scarecrow. At the front of that column was the head truck with its hood wide open with maybe a half-dozen Russian soldiers standing there staring at a steaming engine while  smoking cigarettes. No one was working to fix the machine, and none of them seemed to give a damn.

After seeing how they've performed in Ukraine, I realize today that the heart of the Russian Army hasn't probably changed much from that day almost 30 years ago and that, even in its impotent state after the fall of the Wall, their military rests like a broken Rube Goldberg machine that can't even knock a marble onto the right track.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

2 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

It's hard to fathom that these chucklefucks put the first man in space. 

Not really. Strapping a rocket to your ass isn't the hard part, and life is cheap in Russia. They would have no problem sacrificing people for the glory of the motherland. Just ask Vladimir Komarov.

 

It's luck that old Yuri actually made it home.

 

[RomaVicta 29780]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded, 100%.  We need to have a good counter to China's strategy.  We have a strategic interest -- meaning a governmental, defense, and military interest -- in not depending on China for so much important shit.  

We should begin sinking billions into developing the Central American Technology and Manufacturing Zone.  90% of what is being fabricated/produced in China today can be produced in Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala in less than 10 years.  Sink money into infrastructure, facilities, and manufacturing.  Save a fortune on shipping.  Create prosperity in our own hemisphere.  Stabilize formerly poor countries so they are not such a source of crime and don't lose their population as they flee to the north.  it's a win-win-win-win.

Treating China as a geopolitical rival requires some much bigger thinking than we've been doing.  Tariffs?  That's like being married to a hell-bitch who uses you for your money and who you hate, and giving her the silent treatment hoping that will change things.  No.  You need to be working to move the fuck out out and get yourself a new gal.

It's nice to see a foreign policy plan that doesn't exclusively involve military intimidation and getting a gang together to make the rival country suffer. I think our habit of seeing everybody as NAZI Germany with a world conquering agenda is childish and counter-productive. China is a rival not a blood enemy.

I like the plan of turning countries to our south into manufacturing giants for all the reasons you name. Of course, there'll be cynical resistance from the GOP for spending money on your colored people and from unions who think the jobs belong here. They won't listen to the second step explanation about why the policy is good for everybody including US consumers.

[RomaVicta 29780]

1 hour ago, TreatyOak said:

Right? Spelling out exactly what lines we won't cross, detailing what we will and won't send, etc, doesn't make sense. Putin always talks in generalities about what he will do if we enter the fight and it has scared the crap out of everyone. We should do the same. 

I couldn't disagree more. We need to be very clear about where we draw a hard line. We have been clear that we're willing to do just about anything for Ukraine other than risking soldiers and flyers. It's working.

I doubt anyone reads a Biden statement about what we're doing and assumes that's the limit of what we'll do. We don't say to what extent we're sharing intelligence (a big part in sinking the Moscow) or to what extent we're influencing the contributions of other nations. Recall that the Polish jet transfer got blown up because it went public. Why would anyone assume that that's the only secretive way we're choosing to aid Ukraine.

Russia has already failed in their objectives for the invasion. In other words, they've lost judging on any strategic basis. They're reduced to savage punitive measures and hoping to hold onto what they already had.

As for the posts above about the Russian military. Historically, they fight well in defense of the heart of their homeland. Napoleon and Hitler learned this the hard and bloody way. Their record against capable opponents beyond their borders is not so good. 

As for the Russian military bouncing back or adapting, they couldn't afford or bother to maintain the vehicles they already had. I don't see the wherewithal to replace 2500 armored vehicles and a $750MM cruiser that was a critical part of their sea-going air defense. They're done as a conventional threat to NATO. They're just about done as a conventional threat to fucking Ukraine.

They'd be smart to invest more in hypersonic missiles and drones to protect their interests. In the long run it's cheaper than a tank brigade. These newer weapons won't be enough to conquer anyone without a well-trained, well-disciplined, well-supplied, and superbly integrated ground force. 

Russia has pretty much announced they're basically only capable of mass murder, building destruction, and rape. Fighting doesn't really appear to be their thing once they leave Mother Russia.

[RomaVicta 29780]

1 hour ago, Hookah Horns said:

The fact that we're walking on eggshells like this (to the extent you can while funding and arming people killing a bunch of Russians) is starting to be rather concerning to me. Maybe Biden has Putin in his head, but it seems more likely that (i) we've got solid intelligence that Putin really is out of his mind, gives no fucks anymore and is looking for an excuse to hit the red button or at least start WWIII, and/or (ii) this is more about the loaded gun Russia has pointed at our collective heads in cyberspace, which we can't do anything to defend against or assure an equivalent reprisal. 

Needless to say, it'd be fascinating to see what messages are being exchanged on the "red phone" (which in reality is basically a secure email system rather than a phone hotline).

I've got a speculation to float. 

Trump in the last day or two has criticized Putin. I believe I heard that Trump seemed to accuse Vlad of genocide.

Trump, as an ex-president, still gets intelligence briefings. Or at least the ones before him did. Was their something in that briefing that made Trump feel less beholden?

And what is Biden hearing? We don't know. Based on Trump maybe turning on Vlad and Biden's measured response, my speculation is that Putin may not be expected to last much longer. We see how the Russian people are deceived, but there is no deceiving the Russian Army general staff, their admiralty, or their intelligence services. Those powerful entities know the score. Can an autocrat survive if all those arms of power decide he needs to go?

Thus ends my idle speculation. I don't know anything more than anybody else.

[Chad Fuck 17562]

9 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I've got a speculation to float. 

Trump in the last day or two has criticized Putin. I believe I heard that Trump seemed to accuse Vlad of genocide.

Trump, as an ex-president, still gets intelligence briefings. Or at least the ones before him did. Was their something in that briefing that made Trump feel less beholden?

And what is Biden hearing? We don't know. Based on Trump maybe turning on Vlad and Biden's measured response, my speculation is that Putin may not be expected to last much longer. We see how the Russian people are deceived, but there is no deceiving the Russian Army general staff, their admiralty, or their intelligence services. Those powerful entities know the score. Can an autocrat survive if all those arms of power decide he needs to go?

Thus ends my idle speculation. I don't know anything more than anybody else.

I thought I heard early on in the Biden admin that they had decided tfg would get no intelligence briefings?  

 

[Chad Fuck 17562]

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/us/politics/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings.html

Quote

Biden Bars Trump From Receiving Intelligence Briefings, Citing ‘Erratic Behavior’

President Biden said there was “no need” for former President Donald J. Trump to get the briefings, traditionally given to ex-presidents as a courtesy and to keep them informed if their advice is needed.

 

[RomaVicta 29780]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/us/politics/biden-trump-intelligence-briefings.html

 

Thanks. That was somewhere in the old memory box. I wonder if Trump could be getting information elsewhere. Or maybe he's just trying to cover his bases.

[TreatyOak 16149]

57 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I couldn't disagree more. We need to be very clear about where we draw a hard line. We have been clear that we're willing to do just about anything for Ukraine other than risking soldiers and flyers. It's working.

I doubt anyone reads a Biden statement about what we're doing and assumes that's the limit of what we'll do. We don't say to what extent we're sharing intelligence (a big part in sinking the Moscow) or to what extent we're influencing the contributions of other nations. Recall that the Polish jet transfer got blown up because it went public. Why would anyone assume that that's the only secretive way we're choosing to aid Ukraine.

Russia has already failed in their objectives for the invasion. In other words, they've lost judging on any strategic basis. They're reduced to savage punitive measures and hoping to hold onto what they already had.

As for the posts above about the Russian military. Historically, they fight well in defense of the heart of their homeland. Napoleon and Hitler learned this the hard and bloody way. Their record against capable opponents beyond their borders is not so good. 

As for the Russian military bouncing back or adapting, they couldn't afford or bother to maintain the vehicles they already had. I don't see the wherewithal to replace 2500 armored vehicles and a $750MM cruiser that was a critical part of their sea-going air defense. They're done as a conventional threat to NATO. They're just about done as a conventional threat to fucking Ukraine.

They'd be smart to invest more in hypersonic missiles and drones to protect their interests. In the long run it's cheaper than a tank brigade. These newer weapons won't be enough to conquer anyone without a well-trained, well-disciplined, well-supplied, and superbly integrated ground force. 

Russia has pretty much announced they're basically only capable of mass murder, building destruction, and rape. Fighting doesn't really appear to be their thing once they leave Mother Russia.

Thanks for your post. Lots of good thoughts in there. 

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

It's hilarious they think their ship sinking because their sailors threw lit cigarettes in the magazine or some shit is a better look for them than getting hit by a missile during a war. I think it's just that hard to stop lying about everything when you've been compulsively doing it for so long. 

It reminds me of my senior year in college. We threw a party at my apartment and I was hammered but hitting on some girl. I excused myself to throw up and unfortunately left the door open. When I came back to the couch to close the deal, my buddy cock blocked me by asking if I threw up. I said "no, I took a shot" thinking this was a better excuse. He replied with "must have been one hell of a shit to have to brush your teeth after". Needless to say that chick was gone by the time I turned around.

Fucking Contello you 7th year senior fucker.

 

The Russians are basically a drunk 21 year old D as in David, thinking that by telling a more embarrassing lie it will cover up the truth.  

Experience tells me they are fucked either way, no need to make themselves look even worse. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11809]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

My hypothesis has long been that to have the CHEAPEST manufacturing, you need a totalitarian government: one that will fuck over its labor pool and even deploy slave labor, and one that will give zero fucks environmentally.  China gives you that, and can keep a lid on a lot of the bad shit.

If we did the same stuff in Honduras, the stories would get out like crazy, we'd have massive protest and social justice movements raising unholy hell, and it couldn't be ignored the way it is in China, a communist totalitarian state literally an ocean away.

We'll have to pay slightly more for iPhones made in Honduras, because we can't get away with those workers being forced to work 90 hours per week, and those plants spewing the worst shit imaginable into the relatively nearby air and water.  But it can still be cheaper than making it domestically, and it's strategically more sound and you'll save a bit on shipping.

We are paying high prices now, no better time than the present.

[Nivek 16855]

On 4/14/2022 at 4:38 PM, RomaVicta said:

 

Side Note: Thanks to Felix for his contribution to the tank conversation. I still wonder about how the American tank would perform in Ukraine or some other environment different from the desert.

If I recall correctly, they were designed with a war in Europe as a possibility, but did just fine in the desert.  

I think it is a bit premature to declare them obsolete simply because the Russians are shit at playing war and they are going against well funded well designed tank killers.  It seems this is an ideal situation for the anti-armor weapons to be employed and the lack of adaptation by the Russian military seems to keep it very effective.   Those same weapons would not be as effective against the US because of how we use them.  

I am most impressed by the reactive armor that the Russian tanks have, because I have not seen a single example where the reactive part even bothered to engage.  It looks completely useless.  

[WhatTheBuck 28708]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

My hypothesis has long been that to have the CHEAPEST manufacturing, you need a totalitarian government: one that will fuck over its labor pool and even deploy slave labor, and one that will give zero fucks environmentally.  China gives you that, and can keep a lid on a lot of the bad shit.

If we did the same stuff in Honduras, the stories would get out like crazy, we'd have massive protest and social justice movements raising unholy hell, and it couldn't be ignored the way it is in China, a communist totalitarian state literally an ocean away.

We'll have to pay slightly more for iPhones made in Honduras, because we can't get away with those workers being forced to work 90 hours per week, and those plants spewing the worst shit imaginable into the relatively nearby air and water.  But it can still be cheaper than making it domestically, and it's strategically more sound and you'll save a bit on shipping.

This. Remember just over a decade ago we heard about Foxconn hanging netting to prevent desperate employees from leaping to their deaths.

https://www.wired.com/2011/02/ff-joelinchina/

[WhatTheBuck 28708]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Stephen Colbert is already running with it......

The “Is potato” gag is priceless. He generally telegraphs it enough that I can say it with him then I just laugh and laugh.