Ukraine War

[atomheartbevo 89415]

8 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

How are they going to take Taiwan?  It’s a hundred miles away. They can’t dump hundreds of thousands of troops, let alone the required millions of troops needed, in there by air or sea.  They won’t even be able to achieve local theater superiority given the state of missiles (and now drones)   

Oh and moving against Taiwan, even trying to bomb them into submission, ensures that the West and a massive chunk of Asia will cease to trade with China, which cripples China’s economy (more so than what is happening with Russia right now, whose exports are dwarfed by China’s in terms of amount and variety).  Not only that, but unlike Russia whose populace didn’t depend so much on exports, it will put tens of millions, probably hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and in the streets.  And China will lose food imports that will starve a fuckload of Chinese.

China doesn’t have the military to take Taiwan (civilian cruise liners full of troops trying to make it across 100 miles of open ocean are fantastic targets) but it does have the military to put down any uprisings in the future due to China’s population problems and potential food or economic issues, and it’s geared to easily move large amounts of troops up and down the coast.  COVID has kind of given us a glimpse of China’s future internal moves.

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

Who wants to tell him?

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by Aqua Buddha

[atomheartbevo 89415]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Who wants to tell him?

He has a college degree.  Boebert has a GED.  Both of them seem to have the same grasp of economics.

[InkaUtexas 25506]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He has a college degree.  Boebert has a GED.  Both of them seem to have the same grasp of economics.

and both suck. 

[atomheartbevo 89415]

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

On 12/23/2022 at 7:40 PM, atomheartbevo said:

How are they going to take Taiwan?  It’s a hundred miles away. They can’t dump hundreds of thousands of troops, let alone the required millions of troops needed, in there by air or sea.  They won’t even be able to achieve local theater superiority given the state of missiles (and now drones)   

Oh and moving against Taiwan, even trying to bomb them into submission, ensures that the West and a massive chunk of Asia will cease to trade with China, which cripples China’s economy (more so than what is happening with Russia right now, whose exports are dwarfed by China’s in terms of amount and variety).  Not only that, but unlike Russia whose populace didn’t depend so much on exports, it will put tens of millions, probably hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and in the streets.  And China will lose food imports that will starve a fuckload of Chinese.

China doesn’t have the military to take Taiwan (civilian cruise liners full of troops trying to make it across 100 miles of open ocean are fantastic targets) but it does have the military to put down any uprisings in the future due to China’s population problems and potential food or economic issues, and it’s geared to easily move large amounts of troops up and down the coast.  COVID has kind of given us a glimpse of China’s future internal moves.

The bad news is we probably won't have to just depend on online debate to see who is right, in my opinion.  China is flying more and more sorties over Taiwan's space, bringing more and more ships in.  Currently going on: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/taiwan-chinese-air-force-planes-cross-strait-median-line-strike-drills-response-provocation-3167991 . For whatever reason, people seem to think 2027 is when it gets real.

But it's the worlds largest country with the worlds largest (and nuclear capable) army with the worlds second largest military budget against  . . .  Taiwan.  I need more than Brisket's name dropping to even consider they can't take an island neighbor. The blockade would be up before we would even know it's started.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

People featured on that video:  Tucker Carlson, Gaetz, Boebert, Hawley.  That's a pretty fair summary of the quality of opinion.

[Hornius Emeritus 12419]

It was 30 years ago today ...





 

[Hornius Emeritus 12419]

Article: Putin's invasion has backfired in a spectacular way.  The upshot: the world's energy mix is changing and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drastically sped up the pace of that change. Russia's invasion has impressed upon many countries how dependent they are on Russian fossil fuels. They are now racing towards energy independence. Sadly, for Russia, oil and gas are a huge driver of its economy. 60% of its exports come from fossil fuel.

 

Spoiler

The Ukraine War Has Backfired On Putin In A Brilliant Way

Russia May Have Inadvertently Shot Itself In The Foot

By now, it is evident that Putin is losing the Ukrainian war. He has failed to capture Ukraine's capital Kyiv and has had to quickly retreat to stem the colossal losses his military has suffered. Surely, things couldn’t get worse for sad Vlad? Well, a recent report from the IEA has looked into the global impact of his idiotic war, and it turns out that the knock-on effects could push Putin’s Russia to breaking point. So, yes, things could and will get far worse for the Kremlin’s cretinous leader.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) regularly looks into how the world’s energy mix is changing. Their reports help inform manufacturers and suppliers of what is to come, enabling them to meet demands or not incur unnecessary costs. One of their recent reports found that the world has dramatically sped up its shift to renewable energy in response to the Ukrainian war. In fact, the IEA found that The world will build 2,400 GW of new renewable energy capacity (mainly from solar and wind energy) in the next five years. That is equal to China’s entire current generating capacity! This represents a significant speed-up in the adoption of these planet-saving technologies.

But how is this connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Well, it is all to do with how the invasion impacted the fossil fuel industry.

You see, Russia is a significant player in the oil and natural gas world. This meant that as countries imposed sanctions on Russia, they simply stopped supplying them with fossil fuels. This led to the Russian-EU gas lines being shut off, which created a steep decline in the world's supply of natural gas that, in turn, caused a massive global price spike.

Many Western countries have imposed a price cap on Russian oil too, which Putin has said they will not bow down to, again causing a similar issue and sending oil prices up.

These rising prices have led to an energy crisis and mean many developed nations are struggling to pay the bills. This has exposed how reliant many countries were on Russian fossil fuels. As such, many are now profoundly aware of just how vulnerable they are to Putin’s blackmailing and, as such, are desperate to be more energy-independent.

This is where wind and solar energy come in. These renewables are by far the cheapest forms of energy we have ever had, costing around 70% less than natural gas power per kWh. They can also be built and deployed far cheaper and quicker than other forms of energy and can be built locally (less so with solar).

This means they are incredibly attractive to countries desperate to stop suckling at Putin’s oily teat, and according to the IEA, this is what has caused a wind and solar energy boom.

But, Russia depends on a thriving oil industry. 40% of the Russian Federation’s income, 60% of its exports and 20% of its GDP come from the fossil fuel industry. Yet, Putin’s pointless war has pushed the world to give up oil faster than ever and, in doing so, has reduced this cornerstone of their economy dramatically. What’s more, current sanctions are giving Russia a recession causing 13.4% of annual inflation, which seems set to continue for the next few years.

In short, the future of Putin’s Russia seems bleak at best. His attempt to relive his soviet days not only demonstrated to the world just how hopeless the Russian military is but may have also inadvertently destroyed the one thing that could help the Russian people wither the storm. A part of me prays pressures like this will cause the collapse of Putin’s Russia. But for the millions of innocent people that call Russia home, I hope sad Vlad realises it is time to give up and go home, as that will be the best thing for his beloved Russia.

 

[Dahobbs 17444]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The bad news is we probably won't have to just depend on online debate to see who is right, in my opinion.  China is flying more and more sorties over Taiwan's space, bringing more and more ships in.  Currently going on: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/taiwan-chinese-air-force-planes-cross-strait-median-line-strike-drills-response-provocation-3167991 . For whatever reason, people seem to think 2027 is when it gets real.

But it's the worlds largest country with the worlds largest (and nuclear capable) army with the worlds second largest military budget against  . . .  Taiwan.  I need more than Brisket's name dropping to even consider they can't take an island neighbor. The blockade would be up before we would even know it's started.

It is funny that you think China can move the type of resources it would need to blockade Taiwan without anyone noticing. Don't get me wrong, China will have a very powerful military. But crossing 100 miles of ocean and landing forces when opposed by a prepared enemy with modern weaponry is a nearly impossible task. 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is funny that you think China can move the type of resources it would need to blockade Taiwan without anyone noticing. Don't get me wrong, China will have a very powerful military. But crossing 100 miles of ocean and landing forces when opposed by a prepared enemy with modern weaponry is a nearly impossible task. 

I think we’ve talked about this even on this thread. But not to derail, any successful China blockade or invasion of Taiwan will be because of a political choice and not military victory.

Reading up on D-Day is a good way to conceptualize the scale of the undertaking. And China won’t have:

1. Uncontested control of the air 

2. The luxury of preparing the invasion unseen— no spy satellites in World War II. Any invasion prep would be done in plain view.

3. Britain and the U.S. had a fully mobilized wartime economy, China will either have to tip their hand or try to cobble together what they can via dual use.

4. The sea will be contested by submarines and surface vessels.  The U.S. and UK had mostly destroyed German naval capacity. 100 miles of hostile waters.

5. Taiwan and any Allies will not be pinned down on a different front. 
 

Again, D-Day was the most monumental logistical undertaking in human wartime capacity. China faces an even heavier lift. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21059]

Okinawa was significantly bigger than D-Day. 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

These people are trash, utter trash. I am ambivalent about cancel culture, but the fact they can appear in public is evidence we haven’t gone far enough. What they’re doing is like mocking Churchill and asking if Britain should negotiate with Germany. They shouldn’t be able to leave their homes without being mocked and harassed. Fuck them. 

[956 Worldwide 34428]

6 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Okinawa was significantly bigger than D-Day. 

I am using D-Day as short for all of Overlord, I should be more specific. The Allies landed over a million men in France within a month, this was the largest seaborne invasion in history. And Overlord is a better comparison since 100 miles is closer to 50 than the thousands to Okinawa. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

36 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am using D-Day as short for all of Overlord, I should be more specific. The Allies landed over a million men in France within a month, this was the largest seaborne invasion in history. And Overlord is a better comparison since 100 miles is closer to 50 than the thousands to Okinawa. 

Good specification.  Overlord itself was about 2+ months.  But that includes a large chunk of that time, not that it still wasn't dicey, landing armor and men into the theater via Northern France.  Okinawa lasts about that same amount of time, but it's gut-wrenching violence from start to finish.  And as you say, staging an amphibious assault from England was one thing, staging it from the West Coast of the U.S. via a bunch of tiny nearby islands with few allies and the infrastructure of modern day Oklahoma was tough as shit.  Apples and Oranges I guess.  Both were similar strategically, but very different tactically.  And Okinawa was relatively densely populated and every local took up arms to repel the invasion.  The areas near the U-O-G-J-S beachheads were relatively rural/agricultural and the locals encountered by the Allies offered no resistance, only sammiches and handjobs

[Ted Lange 16041]

 

[YGIFS 19449]

And what that beta make man shout in his undershirt from that balcony window before falling to his death?

you guessed it, “PELLA!!!”

[atomheartbevo 89415]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

It is funny that you think China can move the type of resources it would need to blockade Taiwan without anyone noticing. Don't get me wrong, China will have a very powerful military. But crossing 100 miles of ocean and landing forces when opposed by a prepared enemy with modern weaponry is a nearly impossible task. 

China is not prepared for the financial hit that would occur, or the other hits (food, resources, etc.).

Does China even have the troops to handle tens of millions of people (or a hundred million or more) who are suddenly without jobs if China fucks around?  And long term, it will be hundreds of millions without jobs as their economy collapses.  China is not Russia, who can sell or smuggle a little oil through back channels or over borders.  Russia won’t be able to make up the trade losses, India will see it as a golden opportunity to see China knocked way down, and India will gladly do anything to hurt China in that case.  And companies are already trying to diversify away from China, this will just cement that (similar to countries bailing on Russian O&G).

How long can they feed their people in a situation where their overseas suppliers stop supplying them?

And that’s before we talk about their demographics problems (which maybe a part of what’s driving some of the talk that it will happen sooner rather than later).

Russia has provided a fantastic example to China of fucking around and finding out.  China cannot afford to have companies and countries bail on their production output just as countries and companies bailed on Russian O&G.

[atomheartbevo 89415]

6 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

But it's the worlds largest country with the worlds largest (and nuclear capable) army with the worlds second largest military budget against  . . .  Taiwan.  I need more than Brisket's name dropping to even consider they can't take an island neighbor. The blockade would be up before we would even know it's started.

First, nukes don’t matter if you’re not willing to use them, and even China publicly recognizes that nukes are a step too far, so take them out of the equation.

Germany had by far the most powerful and experienced military in Europe during the Battle of Britain, and they made noise about invading Britain, but they didn’t build the infrastructure to land German troops, so it was ultimately useless and a waste of German resources.  And China has shit for experience when it comes to actual combat on a large (or even medium) scale.  Ukraine also showed Russia’s lack of experience at larger scale combat hurt them badly.

Sure, Germany talked about using river barges to cross dozens of miles of open sea that would be fully contested by the Brits, but that would have just sent tens of thousands of Germans to the bottom of the English Channel.  And hell, those barges being towed by tugboats and larger ships could have been swamped on their own, without the Brits touching them.

Same with China - they haven’t built the actual in-depth and redundant infrastructure to invade Taiwan over a hundred miles of open and contested seas - the cruise ships that they’ve held exercises with are boxy as hell and have a fucking amazing radar and visual signature that can be seen far away, and that would mean the death of thousands of Chinese troops every time one goes down.

They haven’t built enough amphibious assault support ships to get the troops to within a few dozen miles for smaller landing craft to disembark from, and the idea that the ones they’ve built can quickly make two hundred mile round trips is laughable because they would have to drop off the smaller landing craft, hang around while being shot at to recover the smaller craft that make it to the beach and back, travel the hundred miles back to China, reload, and then do it all over again.

in that respect, China is similar to Russia - Russia didn’t build out their trucking infrastructure, and it turbo-fucked them multiple times, just as China hasn’t built out the naval assets it needs, and what it’s built and planning to build are great for moving troops up and down its own coasts, but not over 100 miles.

Power is useless if you can’t project it, and even with a blockade (which would be heavily contested and see lots of Chinese ships sunk), China can’t take the economic hit like Russia did.  Companies and countries would sever their ties with China, which runs counter to everything Xi has been doing with his Belt and Road Initiative (which spans 150 countries).  It would completely ruin those plans, because as we’ve seen with COVID, even a small economic hit hurts China pretty badly, and sanctions by China’s largest trading partners would destroy China and Xi.

Ukraine has been very eye opening for everybody - it’s shown that Russian hardware sucks ass, that you need some serious logistics capabilities even for a neighbor that shares a border (let alone 100 miles of ocean), and that NCOs and junior officers need to be independent-thinking (something that Russia, like China, couldn’t do).

Most importantly, Russia has shown that the West still has considerable economic power without firing a single shot, and that power would be brought to bear on China.

Edited December 26, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89415]

Medvedev Dreaming of Texas breaking away and unifying with Mexico has a lot of American supporters going 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

If Bevoette and Jade had a Ukraine thread

 

 

[Zeus 5949]

https://fb.watch/hKN1rjKx1u/

[pacman 7327]

 

 

[Brisketexan 104587]

 
 

And just like that…Elon lost a million $8 blue check mark subscribers.

[Red Five 40648]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And just like that…Elon lost a million $8 blue check mark subscribers.

And we probably lost a handful of posters.

[Brisketexan 104587]

And we probably lost a handful of posters.

None of them posted pics of their wife/GF on IPIHB, so no big loss.

[WhatTheBuck 28708]

21 hours ago, pacman said:

 

 

Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do...

[JohnnyRage 1617]

23 hours ago, pacman said:

 

 

Anyone want to briefly name the hardware seen in the video for a guy with a 25 year old Comp. Sci. degree that is now a curmudgeon about technology. Where do you keep the girls?

[atomheartbevo 89415]

5 hours ago, JohnnyRage said:

Anyone want to briefly name the hardware seen in the video for a guy with a 25 year old Comp. Sci. degree that is now a curmudgeon about technology. Where do you keep the girls?

A shitload of virtualized cell phones judging by the SIM cards - looks like they have it refined, as some places without their resources have hundreds and thousands of actual physical cell phones hooked up and running scripts for posting on social media.  Basically, with the SIM card, you have a cell phone (and/or associated phone #) that you can use to generate social media accounts (twitter, etc.), as some social media services require actual phone numbers and not say Google's Voice service (Twitter is cracking down on Google Voice phone numbers, much to my chagrin).

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

I have noticed I am receiving fewer calls from that asshole Scam Likely

Edited January 1, 2023 by Longhorn_Fan68

[UpperWestside 6136]

This thread seems as good a place as any to post this. I was at work the other day and we were briefly talking about Ukraine. A young guy I work with from Texas hears Ukraine and comes over and says, with a straight face, “Guys did you see that Russia is at war with Ukraine?” I stopped what I was doing and asked him to repeat what he said. He just discovered last Wednesday that this war is happening. I asked him how he discovered this and he shows me an email he gets each day about the biggest stories happening. This story he got it from had the headline:

BIGGEST STORY OF 2022

In his defense he said he was high when he read that in the morning. All I could say to the co-worker I was talking to is “There’s that stellar education you get living in Texas.” How anyone would have made it almost a year without ever hearing there is a big war happening in Ukraine was almost unbelievable, especially living in this city where we have a large population of Ukrainians and Russians. He’s an exceedingly nice guy, but I had the Torbush face when he said that.

[Red Five 40648]

"Excuse me for a moment. I need to pull up the Jim Carey landed on the moon gif on my phone. Ah, there it is." 

[Walser 1106]

On 12/26/2022 at 3:29 PM, atomheartbevo said:

First, nukes don’t matter if you’re not willing to use them, and even China publicly recognizes that nukes are a step too far, so take them out of the equation.

Germany had by far the most powerful and experienced military in Europe during the Battle of Britain, and they made noise about invading Britain, but they didn’t build the infrastructure to land German troops, so it was ultimately useless and a waste of German resources.  And China has shit for experience when it comes to actual combat on a large (or even medium) scale.  Ukraine also showed Russia’s lack of experience at larger scale combat hurt them badly.

Sure, Germany talked about using river barges to cross dozens of miles of open sea that would be fully contested by the Brits, but that would have just sent tens of thousands of Germans to the bottom of the English Channel.  And hell, those barges being towed by tugboats and larger ships could have been swamped on their own, without the Brits touching them.

Same with China - they haven’t built the actual in-depth and redundant infrastructure to invade Taiwan over a hundred miles of open and contested seas - the cruise ships that they’ve held exercises with are boxy as hell and have a fucking amazing radar and visual signature that can be seen far away, and that would mean the death of thousands of Chinese troops every time one goes down.

They haven’t built enough amphibious assault support ships to get the troops to within a few dozen miles for smaller landing craft to disembark from, and the idea that the ones they’ve built can quickly make two hundred mile round trips is laughable because they would have to drop off the smaller landing craft, hang around while being shot at to recover the smaller craft that make it to the beach and back, travel the hundred miles back to China, reload, and then do it all over again.

in that respect, China is similar to Russia - Russia didn’t build out their trucking infrastructure, and it turbo-fucked them multiple times, just as China hasn’t built out the naval assets it needs, and what it’s built and planning to build are great for moving troops up and down its own coasts, but not over 100 miles.

Power is useless if you can’t project it, and even with a blockade (which would be heavily contested and see lots of Chinese ships sunk), China can’t take the economic hit like Russia did.  Companies and countries would sever their ties with China, which runs counter to everything Xi has been doing with his Belt and Road Initiative (which spans 150 countries).  It would completely ruin those plans, because as we’ve seen with COVID, even a small economic hit hurts China pretty badly, and sanctions by China’s largest trading partners would destroy China and Xi.

Ukraine has been very eye opening for everybody - it’s shown that Russian hardware sucks ass, that you need some serious logistics capabilities even for a neighbor that shares a border (let alone 100 miles of ocean), and that NCOs and junior officers need to be independent-thinking (something that Russia, like China, couldn’t do).

Most importantly, Russia has shown that the West still has considerable economic power without firing a single shot, and that power would be brought to bear on China.

I agree with atomheartbravo. And Experience counts for a lot. Let's compare and contrast previous Allied/American amphibious assaults with those of China. Just off the top of my head:

-Crossing the Delaware to attach the Hessians (sorry, couldn't resist)

-Marine landings of Japanese held islands in the Pacific

-WW2 landings in Sicily

-WW2 landing at Salerno on the Italian boot

-WW2 D-Day

-Korean war flanking landing at Inchon

------------------------------------------------

Now the Chinese: Fuck-O

------------------------------------------------

Getting a viable army to establish a beachhead is super difficult. atomheartbravo has already delved into those details.

[atomheartbevo 89415]

59 minutes ago, Walser said:

WW2 landings in Sicily

-WW2 landing at Salerno on the Italian boot

And those provided the Allies a helluva lot of experience for landing on the French Coast (which would have provided a lot of experience for Operation Downfall).

And a few other things a friend from Taiwan mentioned after I posted that - the weather only allows for a handful of months to move a lot of stuff across the Strait and get it deployed (they have two monsoon seasons).  More importantly, he said all of the beaches they have (around a dozen) are mostly tiny and all of them are surrounded by mountains, extremely dense towns, or cliffs, unlike say D-Day or the Italian landings (or the Pacific landings) where you had large beaches for the most part, and could get troops on the beach while suppressing German counter-fire/attacks and then quickly get them inland.  The Chinese would be funneled into some extremely small areas on the beaches from a defensive point of view - you'd literally have dudes on the surrounding mountains/cliffs/buildings with Javelins (or equivalent) and MANPADs, and Taiwan has been stockpiling shoulder-fired missiles and portable systems like crazy, which they could quickly move around between landings.

And there are wetlands around some of those beaches.  

He doesn't think a tank would survive on any of those beaches for more than a few minutes, assuming it gets onto the beach, and China doesn't even have the capability to move their heavy main tanks to Taiwan anyways - they'd have to rely on their lighter, amphibious tanks (they have around a thousand modern amphibious tanks), so Taiwan won't be facing top-of-the-line heavy tanks.

Which kind of circles back to China is building an army that is great for putting down any rebelling provinces and moving troops up and down its own secured coast to various cities, but not so great for moving across Taiwanese Strait.

[atomheartbevo 89415]

I'd toss in a few others things, as lessons learned from Ukraine/Russia, because China/Xi does have a serious pride factor that could cause them to do stupid shit (see their COVID response) like try to invade Taiwan, even though it's clear that militarily they face a serious chance of defeat.

Many/most western companies bailed on Russia fairly quickly, both because they didn't want the PR stench, but more importantly, they didn't want to get wrapped up in sanctions.  And it's not merely a matter of closing some McDonalds down - a lot of companies that invested a lot into Russia (such as American/European oil and gas, etc.) bailed because they wanted to avoid those sanctions, but they also saw the writing on the wall about future sales/production (they all had warnings that various countries were going to cut off Russian imports).  Of course, Russia being Russia, they had to confiscate the assets of those companies, pretty much barring the door to future investments (short of Putin being deposed and somebody coming in and doing something amazing).

Now, European countries are trying to (and succeeding) wean themselves off of Russian exports.  And there's very little chance that they will come back anytime soon, and it's both due to trying to hurt Russia/Putin, but also because they see the instability that Russia introduced into Europe, and the fact that Russia openly bragged about trying to hold them hostage over Russian oil and gas exports.

China already has a problem with some Western companies trying to diversify their manufacturing away from China and towards other area/countries (Vietnam, South Korea, etc. and most importantly, India), and part of that is due to government incentives (see India and Apple) and part of that is growing labor costs, but there's a part that's tied to the potential for future conflict, and/or at the very least, the instability that China is seemingly trying to inject into Asian waters and shipping lanes with their various claims and shows of force.

If China invades Taiwan, they obviously won't attack the US to try and create some breathing room and shut down arms shipments (hello Article 5), but at the very least, they will see the kinds of sanctions that were dropped on Russia, and in China's case, they would be far more devastating in the short-term (tens of millions and hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and pissed off).

Long term, it would create serious food instability (wouldn't take much for food imports slowing down to hurt them hard) in addition to economic instability, and a Chinese attack on Taiwan would devastate the high-tech industry as a whole, both because of sanctions, but also because Taiwan is such a major player. That would push all of the high-tech companies to relocate/rebuild their manufacturing from China/Taiwan to more stable nations (South Korea, Vietnam, India, and even the US) and it would push the Chinese manufacturers of rubber dog shit, pillows, lawn furniture, cheap shit in the Dollar General, etc. to other stable nations with cheap labor (SE Asia, India, even South America or Africa).

Ukraine/Russia proved the Western World has some serious economic power, and Russia, even with its 140 million people, food and energy security, and low amount of exports is still hurting. China with it's 1.4 billion people, it's food and energy insecurity, and its massive reliance on imports from the West/Asia, would have a hard time weathering such a storm.

[WhatTheBuck 28708]

11 hours ago, Walser said:

Crossing the Delaware to attach the Hessians

The Americans had the advantage in that war since we took over the airports.

 

[Brisketexan 104587]

I'd toss in a few others things, as lessons learned from Ukraine/Russia, because China/Xi does have a serious pride factor that could cause them to do stupid shit (see their COVID response) like try to invade Taiwan, even though it's clear that militarily they face a serious chance of defeat.
Many/most western companies bailed on Russia fairly quickly, both because they didn't want the PR stench, but more importantly, they didn't want to get wrapped up in sanctions.  And it's not merely a matter of closing some McDonalds down - a lot of companies that invested a lot into Russia (such as American/European oil and gas, etc.) bailed because they wanted to avoid those sanctions, but they also saw the writing on the wall about future sales/production (they all had warnings that various countries were going to cut off Russian imports).  Of course, Russia being Russia, they had to confiscate the assets of those companies, pretty much barring the door to future investments (short of Putin being deposed and somebody coming in and doing something amazing).
Now, European countries are trying to (and succeeding) wean themselves off of Russian exports.  And there's very little chance that they will come back anytime soon, and it's both due to trying to hurt Russia/Putin, but also because they see the instability that Russia introduced into Europe, and the fact that Russia openly bragged about trying to hold them hostage over Russian oil and gas exports.
China already has a problem with some Western companies trying to diversify their manufacturing away from China and towards other area/countries (Vietnam, South Korea, etc. and most importantly, India), and part of that is due to government incentives (see India and Apple) and part of that is growing labor costs, but there's a part that's tied to the potential for future conflict, and/or at the very least, the instability that China is seemingly trying to inject into Asian waters and shipping lanes with their various claims and shows of force.
If China invades Taiwan, they obviously won't attack the US to try and create some breathing room and shut down arms shipments (hello Article 5), but at the very least, they will see the kinds of sanctions that were dropped on Russia, and in China's case, they would be far more devastating in the short-term (tens of millions and hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and pissed off).
Long term, it would create serious food instability (wouldn't take much for food imports slowing down to hurt them hard) in addition to economic instability, and a Chinese attack on Taiwan would devastate the high-tech industry as a whole, both because of sanctions, but also because Taiwan is such a major player. That would push all of the high-tech companies to relocate/rebuild their manufacturing from China/Taiwan to more stable nations (South Korea, Vietnam, India, and even the US) and it would push the Chinese manufacturers of rubber dog shit, pillows, lawn furniture, cheap shit in the Dollar General, etc. to other stable nations with cheap labor (SE Asia, India, even South America or Africa).
Ukraine/Russia proved the Western World has some serious economic power, and Russia, even with its 140 million people, food and energy security, and low amount of exports is still hurting. China with it's 1.4 billion people, it's food and energy insecurity, and its massive reliance on imports from the West/Asia, would have a hard time weathering such a storm.

You grabbed on the three fundamental problems for China, and incompatibility/contradictory nature of the various paths:

1) their geopolitical approach is one of threats and creating regional instability. Saber rattling, threats to Taiwan, naval and air military excursions in the China Sea. Threatening to piss in the punch bowl is a time-honored way to gain geopolitical leverage, so China is using that tactic.

2) China depends on global commerce, particular with the west and western-aligned nations. Without that trade, China is back to being a land of a billion peasants on rice farms with a life expectancy of 40. The Chinese people have had a taste of the benefits of global trade, and they won’t be amenable to going back.

3) China has a looming, near-term demographic crisis. They’re gonna have a LOT of old people, and not enough young people to support them.

How do they plot a course forward? Distract the people with war talk? Too much of that, and you destroy your global trading position, and the people won’t enjoy that. Invite even MORE western commerce, compromising the CCP vision and Xi’s new role as dictator for life? Xi won’t go for that. China has a menu of mostly lousy choices.

Personally, I think their BEST choice is to make some promises to Russia, offer some support (manufacture artillery shells or whatnot) in exchange for exclusive concessions/deals for minerals etc in the eastern half of Russia. “We’ll sell you artillery shells, you give us all your cobalt reserves east of Novosibirsk and sell us oil at 40% below the current market spot price for the next 75 years.” There’s a weakness to exploit. The clever China of 20 years ago would exploit it. The budding dictatorship of Xi? Unknown.

[atomheartbevo 89415]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Personally, I think their BEST choice is to make some promises to Russia, offer some support (manufacture artillery shells or whatnot) in exchange for exclusive concessions/deals for minerals etc in the eastern half of Russia. “We’ll sell you artillery shells, you give us all your cobalt reserves east of Novosibirsk and sell us oil at 40% below the current market spot price for the next 75 years.” There’s a weakness to exploit. The clever China of 20 years ago would exploit it. The budding dictatorship of Xi? Unknown.

I'm really surprised that large numbers of Chinese munitions aren't showing up in Ukraine.  I'm not even sure that small amounts are - the OSINT people track all of this stuff like crazy, and it's been mostly Iranian, Belarus, and North Korean stuff (and very little North Korean), with the odd smuggling of Western equipment in.

[atomheartbevo 89415]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

2) China depends on global commerce, particular with the west and western-aligned nations. Without that trade, China is back to being a land of a billion peasants on rice farms with a life expectancy of 40. The Chinese people have had a taste of the benefits of global trade, and they won’t be amenable to going back.

The Chinese government also relies on that global commerce at the macro level, both for revenue, but also food and energy (and various raw materials).  They need the stability that it provides them.

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

3) China has a looming, near-term demographic crisis. They’re gonna have a LOT of old people, and not enough young people to support them.

And those young people can't support them if they are on the proverbial rice farms - they need those high-tech/high-revenue producing jobs.

Putin's obsession with the demographics and economic resources of Ukraine makes sense for Russia's attack on Ukraine in a twisted sort of way, even if they aren't legitimate reasons to invade - Russia has a demographic problem, invade Ukraine and add tens of millions to the population (there's a reason why they are stealing Ukrainian children).  Ukraine was about to bring a lot of oil & gas resources online in the Black Sea and pumping to the rest of Europe, which would be an economic threat to Putin (or more specifically, his oligarch cronies).

The areas that China is threatening do not provide a serious boost for China's population (and arguably have their own demographic problems), and whatever natural resources they would add are negligible when you factor in that other countries would then sanction China over the matter and withheld other resources.  There's no point in trying to steal $50 from somebody if it's going to cost you $200 to get it.

[pacman 7327]

 

Frontrunner for Darwin Award 2023 emerges with a very large lead....

[The Dog 43801]

 

[MissingInAction 24814]

Don't we have something like 5k Abrams just sitting in a field somewhere?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33840]

goddammit. I agree with Lindsay Graham.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[TwiceHorn 31268]

51 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Both China and Russia have a "vivisection morality," in that it is acceptable to sacrifice the living patient to achieve their ends.  It's true of their civil projects like damns and nuclear reactors, and also true of much of their military equipment.  To hell with safety, make it cheap.

[Sbbruin 21721]

On 1/2/2023 at 6:40 AM, WhatTheBuck said:

The Americans had the advantage in that war since we took over the airports.

 

See, this type of stupidity at the helm of our nation frightens the hell out of me.  And most of the Magats didn’t even blink.

[Mdhorn 5911]

Damn, reading the last few pages of this thread really is a surmise of the future as world resources dwindle.  More and more conflicts are going to occur as posturing runs out and the race for resources increases.  Sooner or later, tensions will break--and more places like the Ukraine will test world resolve.  Meanwhile dipshit Americans will twiddle with their iPhones and vote against their own interests while supporting politicians siding with fascists/communists/oligarchs/tyrants. That's a tall order for Western Democracy to fight for those abroad, while being gutted from the inside by their own.  

[atomheartbevo 89415]

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]