Ukraine War

['stache 21743]

One of Putin’s big grievances is with NATO, which trump happily helped to try and dismantle. Luckily he failed, but why use military for a goal at a time that the most powerful leader amongst your enemies is your puppet? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

13 minutes ago, Chopper said:

There have been many coup attempts in Russia over the past 100 years. Only one was successful

Perhaps widen your scope a few hundred years. 

[Foosters 17691]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Perhaps widen your scope a few hundred years. 

or even like 5

[Chopper 17126]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

or even like 5

The words I used, "in CCCP/Russia", are there for a reason. The extent of their internal security apparatus and the fear they crush their fellow countrymen with are highly relevant imo. Perhaps you disagree but try using logic and/or history instead of snark.

[Dahobbs 17420]

31 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Why the hell are we still importing Russian oil??   Has to be a we already paid for and ships that are still waiting to unload or something right?  Anyone know specifics on it.

Maybe @PenelopeWitherspoon or someone else in the industry can give a better answer, but my understanding is that it makes up a fairly small % of our oil usage and is used because some of our refineries are better at processing the heavier, sour crude produced by Russia than the lighter, sweet crude produced here. Use of Russian increased because our normal source for heavy crude, Venezuela, wasn't an option anymore due to sanctions. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Dahobbs

[Foosters 17691]

Just now, Chopper said:

The words I used, "in CCCP/Russia", are there for a reason. The extent of their internal security apparatus and the fear they crush their fellow countrymen with are highly relevant imo. Perhaps you disagree but try using logic and/or history instead of snark.

Relax. Its a joke

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13537]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dance-dance-revo-putin-feat-adam-rawnsley/id1558716930?i=1000552653863

Pretty interesting segment with Adam Rawnsley that starts at the 21:50 mark from the Fever Dreams podcast a couple of days ago. Some of it's been covered in this thread, but touches on 

- How the Average Joe could corroborate US intel reports that Russia was going to invade using Google Maps and Tik Tok

- How half-assed the Russian disinformation campaign was

- How the weird social aspects of Russian military units in charge of short range nuclear ballistics involve a large bag of dildos

[Chopper 17126]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Relax. Its a joke

I'd love to believe that Putin gets taken out by someone in his praetorian guard.

 

"You are sitting closer to him. Hit [the fuck out of] him with something."

"Hit him with what, from 20 meters?"

[ConferenceRoom 6123]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

Sherman's march from Atlanta to the sea. Nazi bombing London. Allies pounding Axis cities including the A-bombs. Romans, Carthiginians, Spartans, and Athenians "laying waste" the land of their enemies.

Texas '05

[Lagunamadre 1975]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Maybe @PenelopeWitherspoon or someone else in the industry can give a better answer, but my understanding is that it makes up a fairly small % of our oil usage and is used because some of our refineries are better at processing the heavier, sour crude produced by Russia than the lighter, sweet crude produced here. Use of Russian increased because our normal source for heavy crude, Venezuela, wasn't an option anymore due to sanctions. 

There is already a de facto ban on Russian oil. Traders aren't touching it. They are running out of places to store it as they can't find a market for it, and if it keeps up will have to start shutting in production. Seems like the $110 price has removal of Russian oil baked in at this point. Nat gas is a different story. When the weather warms up in a couple months in Europe, Russia is going to be super fucked. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19074]

11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Maybe @PenelopeWitherspoon or someone else in the industry can give a better answer, but my understanding is that it makes up a fairly small % of our oil usage and is used because some of our refineries are better at processing the heavier, sour crude produced by Russia than the lighter, sweet crude produced here. Use of Russian increased because our normal source for heavy crude, Venezuela, wasn't an option anymore due to sanctions. 

That is a very good summary.  We import roughly 8M barrels per day of crude.  Only about 600k of that is Russian.  There are some complex refineries in the gulf that love heavy sour crude.  The economics coming off those barrels are fantastic.  We get a lot of that from Canada, but there are supply constraints.  Mexico produces some good heavy crudes as does Venezuela, but with Venezuela being off limits, and the Mexican supply being limited, that limits what we can find on this side of the world.  Russian crude has been a good bargain as its discount was more than some of the other heavy sours AND the transport wasn't as expensive as bringing some of the stuff over the Middle East or West Africa (also less dangerous).  Long and short, oil traders for refineries are looking at the crack and the absolute best bang for their buck.  It is 100% driven by economics (best mix of outputs by the cheapest slate of crudes).  

 A company I used to work for had a slate of 140-200 different crudes to put through their model to determine what crudes they were going to buy and run.  3 months out, you pick the initial slate and your traders work to get those to the refinery.  As you get closer to run month, you are tweaking on the edges, but that initial slate is still largely set.  The crude coming into the US now was likely purchased at least 3 months ago, and possibly longer.

 

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19074]

1 minute ago, Lagunamadre said:

There is already a de facto ban on Russian oil. Traders aren't touching it. They are running out of places to store it as they can't find a market for it, and if it keeps up will have to start shutting in production. Seems like the $110 price has removal of Russian oil baked in at this point. Nat gas is a different story. When the weather warms up in a couple months in Europe, Russia is going to be super fucked. 

This as well.  They aren't touching it now.  I know, as I mentioned upthread, we basically banned it in our company, even though there was nothing official.  Just putting a Global Compliance hold on things (i.e. everything has to be reviewed) is enough to chill the traders.  

[pacman 7309]

2 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

The Trumpists are so good at gaslighting, it's hard to separate their knowing gaslighting from what they have actually deluded themselves to believe.

Page 1 of the Russian playbook...it's almost as if they have been coached by a foreign leader

[DigglerontheHoof 21022]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

Yep. It's total war. Anything to bring enough pain to your opponent that they give up. Kharkiv will be the model for other city assaults should the Russians overcome their logistical problems, poor vehicle maintenance (great link somewhere earlier about tire/vehicle maintenance), and the unwillingness some of their soldiers have to fight and likely poor morale everywhere.

Sherman's march from Atlanta to the sea. Nazi bombing London. Allies pounding Axis cities including the A-bombs. Romans, Carthiginians, Spartans, and Athenians "laying waste" the land of their enemies.

This game has always been tough on civilians. If the Russians can maintain the attack through the muddy season, I wonder if the Ukes should disperse their weapons into the countryside then abandon the cities to the Russians. Bleed the invader constantly over time. They're probably already doing that. I hope so. When the Russians set up artillery outside of Kyiv, declare it an open city.

As wise commanders from Fabius to Washington have realized, saving your fighting force is more important than any city or symbol. 

And it’s almost always done the opposite of breaking a country’s will to fight.  More often than not, it galvanizes them to fight like hell.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

15 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The words I used, "in CCCP/Russia", are there for a reason. The extent of their internal security apparatus and the fear they crush their fellow countrymen with are highly relevant imo. Perhaps you disagree but try using logic and/or history instead of snark

I have said before on here that we are living in a time that parallels the pre-WW1 era.  Massive unchecked wealth inequality (globally), uncontrollable monopolies, technological advancements outpacing any kind of responsible regulation, elderly backward thinking aloof leaders not burdened with a sense of duty to their populations, AstroTurfed extremism to keep the system broken.  So, a 1917 Revolution in Russia actually doesn’t seem that far fetched given the current situation. 

[Mo Horn 8795]

51 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The US just closed airspace to Russia 3 or 4 days after Europe. We don't act fast.

Additionally, the same idiots that say we are energy independent will get mad at Big Gov for stopping business from trading. 

They will also be the first ones to scream when gas prices go up, due to it. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Mo Horn

['stache 21743]

11 minutes ago, pacman said:

Page 1 of the Russian playbook...it's almost as if they have been coached by a foreign leader

What’s sad is that Russia blocks a lot of real media so many of the citizens are likely to only see the propaganda and lies. In our country we have full access to everything and half our citizens choose to accept the lies despite real evidence being readily available. We are a doomed democracy.

[DDD Dad 14167]

2 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Let's go Putin!

[Chopper 17126]

Someone yesterday on twitter posted an interesting thread about how the Russian airline industry was going to be fucked in short order because most of their airplanes are leased, parts come from the west, and maintenance is by contract. Events seem to be moving quickly.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Chopper

[pacman 7309]

From the vehicle maintenance twitter thread, seems the soldier's food is borked as well.

 

 

 

[Chopper 17126]

If Iran and the west reach agreement on reestablishing the JCPOA (which some are saying they're closing in on in Vienna talks) does that bring Iranian crude back to the West?

[Bama Chick 28596]

We really are gonna do The Gilded Age 2.0, huh?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Another good Kasparov thread

 

[Aqua Buddha 14489]

[Chopper 17126]

From this timeline it appears this guy was in RU working for Vice.

[Chopper 17126]

Everybody panic!! Ikea's closing!!

 

[Lagunamadre 1975]

16 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If Iran and the west reach agreement on reestablishing the JCPOA (which some are saying they're closing in on in Vienna talks) does that bring Iranian crude back to the West?

It's my understanding that China is already buying all of the crude the Iranians can produce. So not sure it would have a huge effect on the fungible oil market. 

[disgustipated 39]

I wish we could pull a page from the Putin playbook and carry out some expanded NATO defensive exercises in Poland.

[Chopper 17126]

FT foreign affairs reporter

 

[Goredho 17302]

19 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

 

LAW AND ORDER!

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

5 hours ago, texastough said:

Calling my shot, laugh all you want:

Ukraine mops the floor with the Russians in the next week or two

Putin is out (ousted, suicide, killed by his cronies etc)

Putin's cronies are persecuted and oligarchs are persona non grata in their own country and abroad

Populist opposition leader takes power in Russia and with the help/support of international community, sets up democracy and curbs corruption

World community strikes while the iron is hot and agrees to remove sanctions and provide aid only in return for denuclearization and substantial demilitarization 

profit

Start drinking early or still drunk from last night?

[wildcat09 29187]

 

 

[TexArcher 37455]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

LAW AND ORDER!

FUCKIN' LIBTARD SHOULDN'T HAVE THREATENED GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS!

[Ojo Rojo 1882]

41 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Another good Kasparov thread

 

I'm not sure I agree with Kasparov's premise, which is that the West should be acting militarily.  We want to avoid WWIII and if the sovereignty of Ukraine is the price for that I think the calculation has been that is the price we must pay.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Everybody panic!! Ikea's closing!!

 

Imagine what it would look like if Russia had HEB.

[Brisketexan 104465]

FT foreign affairs reporter
 

That’s actually an interesting idea.

[Chopper 17126]

1 minute ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Imagine what it would look like if Russia had HEB.

Years ago when I had a citibank credit card I had to report it lost. Youngish woman on the phone with citi says, "It looks like your last transaction was with a company named HE BUTT. Is that right?"

Anyway looks like another yacht was seized. This one belonged to the head of Rosneft. The owner is definitely in the Putin inner-circle, unlike some of those other asshole oligarchs.

Quote

The Amore Vero was impounded overnight in the Mediterranean port of La Ciotat, near Marseille, as it was preparing an urgent departure, according to the French Finance Ministry.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm not sure I agree with Kasparov's premise, which is that the West should be acting militarily.  We want to avoid WWIII and if the sovereignty of Ukraine is the price for that I think the calculation has been that is the price we must pay.

Keep kicking that can down the road. WW3 is here and will likely be won or lost in Ukraine.  I know intervention is wildly unpopular but perhaps the best time to do something is actually now.  Doing whatever it takes to keep Russia from taking Ukraine and moving towards the next line to cross is the play IMO. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Keep kicking that can down the road. WW3 is here and will likely be won or lost in Ukraine.  I know intervention is wildly unpopular but perhaps the best time to do something is actually now.  Doing whatever it takes to keep Russia from taking Ukraine and moving towards the next line to cross is the play IMO. 

I think this ignores history.  When the threat of WW3 was born, Ukraine was a part of the USSR.  The West made an advance when the USSR broke up and Ukraine became westernized.  Now Russia is just trying to undo that.  
 

The WW3 rosters have been pretty clearly defined for a long time as Russia vs NATO. WW3 is not “here” until one of the following things happens:

A nuclear weapon is fired.

Russia attacks a member of NATO.

A member of NATO attacks Russia.

 

There is grey area beyond those and that’s what we are experiencing now.  Russia committing war crimes against a non-NATO western ally is potentially justification for NATO to start WW3.  But it is certainly not a foregone conclusion that Russia and the United States are at war with each other.

[Chopper 17126]

Same guy

 

 

[RomaVicta 29756]

Nice posts, Hugo and Snake. My thoughts are adrift between your opinions. 

With such broad world support, it's tempting to commit to ridding Ukraine of all Russian military using conventional warfare. It would be a lasting defeat for Russia and maybe kill the remains of the Soviet Union.

On the other hand, supplying Ukraine, seizing oligarch assets, and destroying their economy seems to be having quite an impact.

I'm not for committing US ground forces. I'm not against other Nato or EU nations sending ground forces. I think those forces could be decisive without American ground support. I think not having direct combat between US and Russian forces lessens the chance for this getting out of hand.

[horn4life 3753]

The biggest dangers are in front of us.

Russia is going to surround and starve the cities.  Once encircled, the supply chain for foos is fucked and it's just a matter of time.  Unless you can keep fighting without food.  Here is where it will become harder and harder to sit back and watch the indiscriminate shelling, and attacks on civilians.  The only way to stop that currently is via some sort of air power, drone, jet or copter.  The only way to supply the starving would be air drops. 

IF and I pray this is possible, we can get enough drones in, we can start to dismantle the convoys.   The costs of refugees is going to be fucking huge to the EU and to us as we use our wallets as the main support for resistance.  Fiscally it's a LOT cheaper to push drones into the Ukraine as fast and as long as humanly possible.  Launching Jets from Poland with Ukrainian pilots seems to be on the table, but that takes on a lot of potential for Russia to strike Poland in response, then it's on. That is something everyone want's to avoid, except perhaps Putin.  I also believe that Putin would launch nukes, if he thought he was about to get overthrown or killed by his own.  SO... would people in the Military resist pulling the last lever to launch? I just do not know.  

I think best and safest path forward is to produce and deliver drones as soon as possible.  Then Ukrainians can strike Russians from the air, without risking accidental or purposeful direct conflict between Russia and NATO.  So let's get a fucking moon shot type commitment for the US military industrial complex to produce the shit out of armed drones.  If we don't, it's gonna be tough to watch hundreds of thousands of people being starved, and allow Putin to hold the land.  The costs are not going to go down over time, neither human nor financial.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

29 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

But it is certainly not a foregone conclusion that Russia and the United States are at war with each other.

We just see the world differently.  Putin’s war is on the western international democratic order and he’s been assaulting it for the last 10+ years.  This is just his largest salvo on the physical battlefield.  I’m not advocating we put troops on the ground or openly attack Russia (for obvious reasons). But we could sell them some jets for $1 and/or do our other clandestine activities to bog them down in Ukraine. Perhaps we are. Whatever it takes to contain the fight to Ukraine without provoking a nuclear Holocaust or letting Putin annex that territory. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Hugo Stiglitz

[TexLonghorn 5587]

Even Ukraine's librarians are salty!

 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We just see the world differently.  Putin’s war is on the western international democratic order and he’s been assaulting it for the last 10+ years.  This is just his largest salvo on the physical battlefield.  I’m not advocating we put troops on the ground or openly attack Russia (for obvious reasons). But we could sell them some jets for $1 and/or do our other clandestine stuff activities to bog them down in Ukraine. Perhaps we are. Whatever it takes to contain the fight to Ukraine without provoking a nuclear Holocaust or letting Putin annex that territory. 

I don’t think we necessarily see the world differently, as I agree that Putin has been pursuing an anti-western agenda for a long time.  You’re using a different definition of the word “war” than I am (and that Webster’s uses): a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations.

 

[Chopper 17126]

It's easy to forget that less than a month ago the consensus among our European allies was that they were glad to have the US back as an ally after 4 years of antagonistic behavior by the US. The euro consensus was also  that they had to exercise the utmost caution in committing themselves to backing US demands because of the antagonism to western democracy and unity posed by the present form of the republican party. From the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, Biden has allowed for consensus to form and for the Europeans lead, which has been very shrewd imo.

There is more than one way to win a war. Right now Putin is busy shooting himself in the foot. The better analogy, I think, is he's busy amputating both of his own legs. And you don't interfere with an enemy while they are busy doing so. What Putin is doing to Ukraine is horrifying. But it is he who has made his choice, as morally repugnant as it is. For now, I think the choice in the US is obvious - we not only watch and wait, we do whatever we can to help the Ukrainians while at the same time avoiding giving Putin any type of cause to rally his country behind him.

[tchookem 3900]

Calling my shot, laugh all you want:
Ukraine mops the floor with the Russians in the next week or two
Putin is out (ousted, suicide, killed by his cronies etc)
Putin's cronies are persecuted and oligarchs are persona non grata in their own country and abroad
Populist opposition leader takes power in Russia and with the help/support of international community, sets up democracy and curbs corruption
World community strikes while the iron is hot and agrees to remove sanctions and provide aid only in return for denuclearization and substantial demilitarization 
profit

So we should be snatching up Rubles, right?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

31 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

agree that Putin has been pursuing an anti-western agenda for a long time.

It’s not only anti-western it’s pro-fascist meaning his aim is to subvert democracy. He’s done it in Belarus without firing a shot. He’s been working on most of Europe too and he’s done serious damage to our political system in the United States. Russians do not see warfare as limited to guns and soldiers on a battlefield. It’s probably why we have to come up with terms like hybrid warfare, active measures, and cyber warfare. To the Russians it’s all just warfare.  He couldn’t subvert Ukraine like Belarus which is why he’s launching this land invasion. He is using NATO expansion and “Western influence” as an excuse to subjugate the Ukrainian people which was always his goal. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Hugo Stiglitz

[immamac 42492]

22 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not only anti-western it’s pro-fascist meaning his aim is to subvert democracy. He’s done it in Belarus without firing a shot. He’s been working on most of Europe too and he’s done serious damage to our political system in the United States. Russians do not see warfare as limited to guns and soldiers on a battlefield. It’s probably why we have to come up with terms like hybrid warfare, active measures, and cyber warfare. To the Russians it’s all just warfare.  He couldn’t subvert Ukraine like Belarus which is why he’s launching this land invasion. He is using NATO expansion and “Western influence” as an excuse to subjugate the Ukrainian people which was always his goal. 

This is so stupid even coming from you. 

[BrickHorn 18176]

25 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not only anti-western it’s pro-fascist

Pretty sure you’ve got that backwards. I’ve been told that liberals who refuse to oppress LGBTQ folks are the fascists.