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Ukraine War

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Horn Dog
Horn Dog

So our brain dead, demented president has managed to, without firing 1 shot, or risking 1 American life, and with the extremely limited tools at his disposal to respond to a mad man hell bent on irrat

BearSchlong
BearSchlong

The Biden 82nd airborne pizza eating photo? My son is in this photo.

cactusflinthead
cactusflinthead

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Tuco

Tuco 5093

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Keep kicking that can down the road. WW3 is here and will likely be won or lost in Ukraine.  I know intervention is wildly unpopular but perhaps the best time to do something is actually now.  Doing whatever it takes to keep Russia from taking Ukraine and moving towards the next line to cross is the play IMO. 

Nope.  Putin has no end game here.  His country of 140M is going to try to control a country of 40M, with most of the first world feeding them weapons.  Maybe he thought he would be greeted as a liberator or some shit, but obviously that's not the case.  If Putin retreats, the illusion of Russian power is dispelled forever.  If he stays, he gets to look at controlling a country roughly twice the size of Iraq when he doesn't have nearly the military might to do so, and no conceivable way to set up a puppet government that will follow Moscow long term.  If this draws out, terrorism in Russia is inevitable. His best hope right now is the try to use the fear of mass destruction and casualties to win the "separatist" regions at the negotiating table.  But the price he will pay for those regions is massive.  

We aren't going to risk WW3 to shuffle the deck.  Putin has a losing hand. 

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8266

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s not only anti-western it’s pro-fascist meaning his aim is to subvert democracy. He’s done it in Belarus without firing a shot. He’s been working on most of Europe too and he’s done serious damage to our political system in the United States. Russians do not see warfare as limited to guns and soldiers on a battlefield. It’s probably why we have to come up with terms like hybrid warfare, active measures, and cyber warfare. To the Russians it’s all just warfare.  He couldn’t subvert Ukraine like Belarus which is why he’s launching this land invasion. He is using NATO expansion and “Western influence” as an excuse to subjugate the Ukrainian people which was always his goal. 

Espionage, politics, asymmetrical warfare... traditional warfare is the last resort or the thing you use after you soften the target with other tactics.  The point is to tear down your enemies by whatever means are available or that you can get away with.  Assassination, cyberattacks, social media campaigns to influence elections or Brexit referendum, manipulating commodity markets to sow unrest in SWA (Arab Spring) or drive fear into European markets, planting fake intel, conspiracy theories,  Manchurian candidates in Belarus, Ukraine, Chechnya, Syria, having compromat on the US president, making Americans not trust their elections.

You need to look bigger picture these things are sometimes unrelated in origin but the responses often point to a larger strategy.  I don't think Putin originated the Q shit but I do believe they jumped in and helped it gain more followers and direct it to be a destabilizing force.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I don't think Putin originated the Q shit but I do believe they jumped in and helped it gain more followers and direct it to be a destabilizing force.

I have seen no evidence of Qanon originating from Russia but the way it hit the ground running in all the Kremlin friendly places leads me to believe it was much more than an organic movement started by some schmodick in his basement.  The Kremlin trolls no doubt exploited it.  

Russia was also pushing anti-vax narratives worldwide years before covid. Cited as contributing to a measles outbreak in Europe in 2018 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45294192.amp

 

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 2053

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We just see the world differently.  Putin’s war is on the western international democratic order and he’s been assaulting it for the last 10+ years.  This is just his largest salvo on the physical battlefield.  I’m not advocating we put troops on the ground or openly attack Russia (for obvious reasons). But we could sell them some jets for $1 and/or do our other clandestine activities to bog them down in Ukraine. Perhaps we are. Whatever it takes to contain the fight to Ukraine without provoking a nuclear Holocaust or letting Putin annex that territory. 

I don't think it's as easy and just shipping jets and shit to them. They would need to train pilots and maintenance crews.  Not something that could happen overnight.  This is going to be over within the next 10 days.

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Keep kicking that can down the road. WW3 is here and will likely be won or lost in Ukraine.  I know intervention is wildly unpopular but perhaps the best time to do something is actually now.  Doing whatever it takes to keep Russia from taking Ukraine and moving towards the next line to cross is the play IMO. 

I considered that, but this is not WWIII, yet, and whether Ukraine falls or not does not have to precipitate it.  I'm not opposed to intervention.  Hell, we got this badass military that we paid for, might as well use it to effect as long as it's wise. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, I didn't think it was wise for any NATO country, or anyone, to get involved militarily.  Having watched it unfold I have a much lower opinion of Putin, Russian and the Russian military's abilities. So maybe Putin overplayed his hand and we could have deployed without consequence. But then, nukes.

Best case, Ukraine wins, Putin completely loses favor and is put out and the world is a better place for it.  Medium case, there are talks, Ukraine agrees to never enter NATO and maybe cedes the Donbas region to Russia and it's over.  Worst case is Russia takes over the country and we're left wondering where the next domino is to fall  Obviously the world can't stand by and watch Russia take over the world.  We're a long way from that point and not in a frog in a boiling pot of water sort of way.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106884

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

Espionage, politics, asymmetrical warfare... traditional warfare is the last resort or the thing you use after you soften the target with other tactics.  The point is to tear down your enemies by whatever means are available or that you can get away with.  Assassination, cyberattacks, social media campaigns to influence elections or Brexit referendum, manipulating commodity markets to sow unrest in SWA (Arab Spring) or drive fear into European markets, planting fake intel, conspiracy theories,  Manchurian candidates in Belarus, Ukraine, Chechnya, Syria, having compromat on the US president, making Americans not trust their elections.

You need to look bigger picture these things are sometimes unrelated in origin but the responses often point to a larger strategy.  I don't think Putin originated the Q shit but I do believe they jumped in and helped it gain more followers and direct it to be a destabilizing force.

Yep.  And Russia has been using asymmetric warfare (psyops, social media, all that shit) for decades to prepare the ground for their move.  Their plan was to divide Europe (done deal, see e.g. Brexit), divide the US both from Europe and internally (done deal, see the Trump movement), so the parties who might stand in the way of their ambition/expansion would be too broken to do so.

But Putin made a mistake.  He was not able to truly envision the Western mindset.  All of those victories he won, all that ground he prepared?  The entire potential advantage evaporated nearly overnight.  The US and Europe are working better together than we have in decades.  Strong public support for assisting Ukraine across the board.  He won a thousand tactical victories.....which gained him little to no strategic advantage.

Russia has been in a committed war with the West for a decade or so.  And it was racking up tactical wins.  But when it came time to make their big move, those tactical wins turned out to be ephemeral and pointless.  Objectively, it's fascinating to watch.  With any humanity, it's horrifying, because the human damage that has been done is staggering, and will only get worse.  And FOR WHAT?  For some shitstain kleptocracy to ensure that it can keep on stealing and steal even more.

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913

Posted
Posted

What does "taking over" a country mean anymore?  You can claim a military victory over its lands but one day you have to leave.

If we couldn't beat the Taliban I doubt the Russians are going to ultimately win in Ukraine.  They might stay there for a few years and claim victory but it will be a mirage. 

The concept of empire is centrally-governed empires is obsolete and Putin is proving it yet again. 

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Russia has been in a committed war with the West for a decade or so.  And it was racking up tactical wins.  But when it came time to make their big move, those tactical wins turned out to be ephemeral and pointless.  Objectively, it's fascinating to watch.  With any humanity, it's horrifying, because the human damage that has been done is staggering, and will only get worse.  And FOR WHAT?  For some shitstain kleptocracy to ensure that it can keep on stealing and steal even more.


I was thinking about this. Is there any doubt that if the U.S. really wanted to it could bring to bear an incredible amount of resources re: cyber-warfare.   

I bet that if the US  wanted to it could destroy/render useless most if not all of Russia's computer networking ability, its electrical grid etc... 

The entire country is a Potemkin Village in some ways. 

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F250

F250 29199

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Chopper said:

An amazingly great and long thread which has the moral that russian paratroopers are roughly one step above the aggy jizz corps

 

So it turns out that Russian paratroopers are just a Chad meme and they FAFO.

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

This is going to be over within the next 10 days.

No chance of this unless Russia fully retreats.  Kremlin might capture/hold some cities but there will be years of insurgency if they commit to occupation.  This thing could last decades. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106884

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


I was thinking about this. Is there any doubt that if the U.S. really wanted to it could bring to bear an incredible amount of resources re: cyber-warfare.   

I bet that if the US  wanted to it could destroy/render useless most if not all of Russia's computer networking ability, its electrical grid etc... 

The entire country is a Potemkin Village in some ways. 

Russia is a skinny, pimply-faced, scraggly mustached, loser with a gun.

Can we beat him in every possible way?  Yep.  We could pummel his ass (apparently without him even throwing more than a couple of punches back).  We get better women.  We drive a better car than his tricked out 87 Camaro.  We make more money....by a factor of 10 or more.  We're faster, we're stronger, we smell better, our dick's bigger, etc. etc. etc.

BUT....he's an insecure little punk with a gun.  Which he thinks makes him a big shot, in spite of the fact that he's pathetic in literally every other way.  And if we lord it over him TOO much, he'll pull it out and shoot.  And no matter how much bigger we are, a gun is a fucking equalizer.  If Russia didn't have nukes, it would be what it is otherwise: a backwater kleptocracy with a bunch of petroleum, drunk people, and surprisingly good poets.  We could knock it down for the count with littler effort.....but that pesky gun......

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106884

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No chance of this unless Russia fully retreats.  Kremlin might capture/hold some cities but there will be years of insurgency if they commit to occupation.  This thing could last decades. 

Yes and no.  Russia doesn't have the men or materiel to make it last decades.   I put the over/under on this being functionally over at July 4th.  And I'd bet the under.  A war of attrition where Russia is losing 2-3 vehicles and 50-100 men a day is not sustainable for their military.  And even if they throw in fresh conscripts.....those will just be meat going into the grinder, and that's actually a good recipe for popular revolt at home.

Russia could sustain 8 years of war in Afghanistan......barely.  Stingers alone made them turn tail pretty quickly.  Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  It's a whole nother level.  Russia has to move now to capture as much territory as it can, and then demand an armistice.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes and no.  Russia doesn't have the men or materiel to make it last decades.   I put the over/under on this being functionally over at July 4th.  And I'd bet the under.  A war of attrition where Russia is losing 2-3 vehicles and 50-100 men a day is not sustainable for their military.  And even if they throw in fresh conscripts.....those will just be meat going into the grinder, and that's actually a good recipe for popular revolt at home.

Russia could sustain 8 years of war in Afghanistan......barely.  Stingers alone made them turn tail pretty quickly.  Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  It's a whole nother level.  Russia has to move now to capture as much territory as it can, and then demand an armistice.

Ukraine isn’t Afghanistan for sure, it’s strategically more valuable.  I don’t see either side tolerating much compromise and even if there is some kind of settlement, Putin will regroup and attack again. I don’t see a 20 year conflict for the reasons you listed but as long a Putin is dictator, this land is going to be a disputed turf war. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18311

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes and no.  Russia doesn't have the men or materiel to make it last decades.   I put the over/under on this being functionally over at July 4th.  And I'd bet the under.  A war of attrition where Russia is losing 2-3 vehicles and 50-100 men a day is not sustainable for their military.  And even if they throw in fresh conscripts.....those will just be meat going into the grinder, and that's actually a good recipe for popular revolt at home.

Russia could sustain 8 years of war in Afghanistan......barely.  Stingers alone made them turn tail pretty quickly.  Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  It's a whole nother level.  Russia has to move now to capture as much territory as it can, and then demand an armistice.

And it is too bad for them that the numbers appear to be roughly 10x that. I know it feels like this has been going on an eternity, but apparently it has only been 6 days. 

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Caponata

Caponata 151

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes and no.  Russia doesn't have the men or materiel to make it last decades.   I put the over/under on this being functionally over at July 4th.  And I'd bet the under.  A war of attrition where Russia is losing 2-3 vehicles and 50-100 men a day is not sustainable for their military.  And even if they throw in fresh conscripts.....those will just be meat going into the grinder, and that's actually a good recipe for popular revolt at home.

Russia could sustain 8 years of war in Afghanistan......barely.  Stingers alone made them turn tail pretty quickly.  Ukraine is not Afghanistan.  It's a whole nother level.  Russia has to move now to capture as much territory as it can, and then demand an armistice.

Only Ukrainian guy I know (friend's client who we ended up hanging out with from time to time) said people don't realize how big the mismatch is between the two countries. He served in the army there in the early 00s iirc. Doesn't think sending them arms will be enough & they will eventually need direct Western involvement. Who tf knows at this point. Dude is a fucking character though & a true rags to riches American Dream story.

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Deej

Deej 77813

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Russia is a skinny, pimply-faced, scraggly mustached, loser with a gun.

Can we beat him in every possible way?  Yep.  We could pummel his ass (apparently without him even throwing more than a couple of punches back).  We get better women.  We drive a better car than his tricked out 87 Camaro.  We make more money....by a factor of 10 or more.  We're faster, we're stronger, we smell better, our dick's bigger, etc. etc. etc.

BUT....he's an insecure little punk with a gun.  Which he thinks makes him a big shot, in spite of the fact that he's pathetic in literally every other way.  And if we lord it over him TOO much, he'll pull it out and shoot.  And no matter how much bigger we are, a gun is a fucking equalizer.  If Russia didn't have nukes, it would be what it is otherwise: a backwater kleptocracy with a bunch of petroleum, drunk people, and surprisingly good poets.  We could knock it down for the count with littler effort.....but that pesky gun......

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106884

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Posted
Just now, Caponata said:

Only Ukrainian guy I know (friend's client who we ended up hanging out with from time to time) said people don't realize how big the mismatch is between the two countries. He served in the army there in the early 00s iirc. Doesn't think sending them arms will be enough & they will eventually need direct Western involvement. Who tf knows at this point. Dude is a fucking character though & a true rags to riches American Dream story.

Maybe not.  The Ukrainian military of today is a shitload different than it was in 2014, much less the early 2000s.  And they didn't have javelins, stingers, etc.  And remember, to win, Ukraine doesn't have to "win" -- they don't have to capture territory, etc.  They just have to still exist in some way.  And that's quite doable.  An occupying Russian army that is getting hit with javelin strikes 2-3 times a day, every day, and losing a couple of choppers a week, and 100 dead a week.....is not winning for Russia.  Ukraine just had to keep bleeding Russia.  

Now, continuing to hold territory is an even BETTER outcome, but I don't think they can do that forever.

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Caponata

Caponata 151

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe not.  The Ukrainian military of today is a shitload different than it was in 2014, much less the early 2000s.  And they didn't have javelins, stingers, etc.  And remember, to win, Ukraine doesn't have to "win" -- they don't have to capture territory, etc.  They just have to still exist in some way.  And that's quite doable.  An occupying Russian army that is getting hit with javelin strikes 2-3 times a day, every day, and losing a couple of choppers a week, and 100 dead a week.....is not winning for Russia.  Ukraine just had to keep bleeding Russia.  

Now, continuing to hold territory is an even BETTER outcome, but I don't think they can do that forever.

I agree. I think his upbringing being so tough skews his outlook more towards pessimism. Growing up dirt poor in Eastern Europe & the former USSR is no joke. 

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Fastbreak

Fastbreak 4045

Posted
Posted
Calling my shot, laugh all you want:
Ukraine mops the floor with the Russians in the next week or two
Putin is out (ousted, suicide, killed by his cronies etc)
Putin's cronies are persecuted and oligarchs are persona non grata in their own country and abroad
Populist opposition leader takes power in Russia and with the help/support of international community, sets up democracy and curbs corruption
World community strikes while the iron is hot and agrees to remove sanctions and provide aid only in return for denuclearization and substantial demilitarization 
profit

You are forgetting all the oil and gas in Ukraine.
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TexArcher

TexArcher 39063

Posted
Posted

God dammit, if they cause a meltdown by storming a nuclear facility with guns blazing, they ought to be held to account just the same as if they'd chosen to pop off a tactical nuke.

This whole past week has been one gigantic fucking war crime.

Fuck Russia.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2204

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

What does "taking over" a country mean anymore?  You can claim a military victory over its lands but one day you have to leave.

If we couldn't beat the Taliban I doubt the Russians are going to ultimately win in Ukraine.  They might stay there for a few years and claim victory but it will be a mirage. 

The concept of empire is centrally-governed empires is obsolete and Putin is proving it yet again. 

A lot of this. The only thing different is we weren't being sanctioned by every country while doing it.

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20913

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Russia is a skinny, pimply-faced, scraggly mustached, loser with a gun.

Can we beat him in every possible way?  Yep.  We could pummel his ass (apparently without him even throwing more than a couple of punches back).  We get better women.  We drive a better car than his tricked out 87 Camaro.  We make more money....by a factor of 10 or more.  We're faster, we're stronger, we smell better, our dick's bigger, etc. etc. etc.

BUT....he's an insecure little punk with a gun.  Which he thinks makes him a big shot, in spite of the fact that he's pathetic in literally every other way.  And if we lord it over him TOO much, he'll pull it out and shoot.  And no matter how much bigger we are, a gun is a fucking equalizer.  If Russia didn't have nukes, it would be what it is otherwise: a backwater kleptocracy with a bunch of petroleum, drunk people, and surprisingly good poets.  We could knock it down for the count with littler effort.....but that pesky gun......


I wonder how good that pesky gun really is. I wouldn't be surprised if it's been cannibalized for spare parts and vodka money. I wonder how good the engineering and maintenance is etc... Given how corrupt Russian society is, I'll bet we've bribed all kinds of people to compromise themselves. 

He's a demented OZ, the man behind the curtain. 

But, yeah ... what if Vlad has been told he has inoperable cancer and only a few months to live and he's determined to go out with a bang?  It's a worry. He's Hitler with nukes. 

 

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