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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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33 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

If we impose a no fly zone and shoot down a Russian jet then any narrative advantage we had is gone. His support will go right back up again.

He’s going to say that’s what’s happening even if it isn’t. I swear y’all are overthinking this. We’re not doing a no fly zone but if we did and it made the difference in the outcome of Ukraine, why does the narrative matter? 

If Putin loses the war without NATO intervention, he is still going to blame NATO and people will believe him because, that’s the most logical explanation for the lose.

If Putin wins the war, he’s going to move onto Estonia or another Baltic and then we get to do this exercise all over again “Are we really going to risk everything for Estonia?”   

I’m also curious to learn more about all this supposed support he’d rally if NATO intervened. Seems like that’s a wildly dubious assumption considering the genocide and war crimes. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Horn Dog
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So our brain dead, demented president has managed to, without firing 1 shot, or risking 1 American life, and with the extremely limited tools at his disposal to respond to a mad man hell bent on irrat

BearSchlong
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The Biden 82nd airborne pizza eating photo? My son is in this photo.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13439

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He’s going to say that’s what’s happening even if it isn’t. I swear y’all are overthinking this. We’re not doing a no fly zone but if we did and it made the difference in the outcome of Ukraine, why does the narrative matter? 

If Putin loses the war without NATO intervention, he is still going to blame NATO and people will believe him because, that’s the most logical explanation for the lose.

If Putin wins the war, he’s going to move onto Estonia or another Baltic and then we get to do this exercise all over again “Are we really going to risk everything for Estonia?”   

I’m also curious to learn more about all this supposed support he’d rally if NATO intervened. Seems like that’s a wildly dubious assumption considering the genocide and war crimes. 

No fly zone means we have to enforce it. It’s world war 3. We aren’t doing that and I can’t believe people are stupid enough to suggest it.

Im not sure why you think it’s dubious. He has a massive propaganda apparatus abs playing video of Russians dying at the hands of Europe and America makes it pretty easy to sell.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11240

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If we went in there now, destroy all the Russian vehicles, shoot down planes and tell them to retreat, what makes you think Putin would launch nukes?  Is that his goal? Does he want us to provoke him in to launching?  Because it's pretty clear to me that the Russian army is garbage, and the US alone could annihilate then easily. They aren't some big machine we should worry about, we can beat them anywhere, any time. 

The only thing they have going for them at this point is MAD. If it weren't for that, this would be a no brainer to save Ukraine, and make a good ally out of them. But are we worried about tactical nukes in the region, against the US or our allies, or the whole world being nuked?  I don't see any of that happening if we were to enforce a no fly zone, but maybe I'm underestimating Putin's stupidity.

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10826

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m also curious to learn more about all this supposed support he’d rally if NATO intervened. Seems like that’s a wildly dubious assumption considering the genocide and war crimes. 

Dumb question amnesty: But how is this a "genocide" if they are essentially the same people? I mean, if you made them all wear the same uniform, you could not tell them apart. I thought genocide was the annihilation of another because they are different from you in culture, looks, and religion. Can this be genocide when they are the same same? I don't think this is genocide because they don't want to kill them, they want to absorb them and assimilate them like the borg, imo.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19519

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31 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

If we went in there now, destroy all the Russian vehicles, shoot down planes and tell them to retreat, what makes you think Putin would launch nukes?  Is that his goal? Does he want us to provoke him in to launching?  Because it's pretty clear to me that the Russian army is garbage, and the US alone could annihilate then easily. They aren't some big machine we should worry about, we can beat them anywhere, any time. 

The only thing they have going for them at this point is MAD. If it weren't for that, this would be a no brainer to save Ukraine, and make a good ally out of them. But are we worried about tactical nukes in the region, against the US or our allies, or the whole world being nuked?  I don't see any of that happening if we were to enforce a no fly zone, but maybe I'm underestimating Putin's stupidity.

When it comes to Russia, we are most definitely worried about global thermonuclear war.

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Bookman

Bookman 4758

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2 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

Dumb question amnesty: But how is this a "genocide" if they are essentially the same people? I mean, if you made them all wear the same uniform, you could not tell them apart. I thought genocide was the annihilation of another because they are different from you in culture, looks, and religion. Can this be genocide when they are the same same? I don't think this is genocide because they don't want to kill them, they want to absorb them and assimilate them like the borg, imo.

If someone went to College Station and killed all the Aggies, would that be genocide?

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burntorangebongos

burntorangebongos 10826

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That would be killing and a crime but not genocide.

The Russians wanted to assimilate them because they consider them the same. But Putin is crazy and lied as to why they needed to go in and de-nazify their country blah blah. I don't think genocide is what this is. It is vindictive shit by a dictator losing face and influence every day because he is a dumb bitch but I don't think the Russian people would want to kill Ukrainians for just existing the way that the Hutus wanted to kill the tutsis....every last one and their future grand kids. They are committing war crimes for sure but genocide is not what I think this is. STill is an atrocity, no doubt.

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Hermanator

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1 hour ago, Nivek said:


Olds believe everything they see on tv. I am beginning to think that tv use in excess of 4 hours/wk should be an automatic voter registration rejection.

That's only 1 cfb game.  No cfb fan would be able to vote. 

So yes it would work marvelously.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

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2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If Putin loses the war without NATO intervention, he is still going to blame NATO and people will believe him because, that’s the most logical explanation for the lose.

If Putin wins the war, he’s going to move onto Estonia or another Baltic and then we get to do this exercise all over again “Are we really going to risk everything for Estonia?”   

I’m also curious to learn more about all this supposed support he’d rally if NATO intervened. Seems like that’s a wildly dubious assumption considering the genocide and war crimes. 

You're right that if Putin loses, he'll blame NATO, and there will be some truth to it given that NATO nations armed the Ukrainians.  But he should've seen that coming.  Maybe he did.

On the second point, if Putin so much as throws a rock at any of the Baltics, it's World War III immediately.  It won't be the same exercise at all because those are NATO nations.  There won't even be any discussion about "if."

On the third point, I tend to agree.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

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I am growing more convinced by the day that what Putin wants is open conflict with NATO.  There are only two ways all of this makes logical sense.  The first is: he's crossing every line in Ukraine to try to force NATO to get involved.  And if NATO refrains, he's going to go ahead and attack a NATO nation and claim that it's retaliation for NATO's act of war when it armed Ukraine.  It's entirely possible that as crazy as it seems, this is all going exactly the way Putin wanted (minus Ukraine taking longer than he'd surely expected) and this was the first punch in a World War that Putin wants.

And if that is correct, it begs the question of what conversations he is having, and has already had, with the likes of China, Iran, and North Korea.

The only other option that makes any sense is that he's lost his fucking marbles.  I guess that's a better option because it likely means that Russia is on their own here, but it probably also means that a tactical nuclear explosion is coming soon to a planet near you.

There's just no fucking way this is all about the price of shipping natural gas from Russia into Europe or any other "logical" explanation.

Edited by TexArcher
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13439

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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

When it comes to Russia, we are most definitely worried about global thermonuclear war.

“I, a regular person not read in on any intelligence, don’t think Vlad would use nukes so we might as well fuck around and find out”

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hobbes2702

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22 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I am growing more convinced by the day that what Putin wants is open conflict with NATO.  There are only two ways all of this makes logical sense.  The first is: he's crossing every line in Ukraine to try to force NATO to get involved.  And if NATO refrains, he's going to go ahead and attack a NATO nation and claim that it's retaliation for NATO's act of war when it armed Ukraine.  It's entirely possible that as crazy as it seems, this is all going exactly the way Putin wanted (minus Ukraine taking longer than he'd surely expected) and this was the first punch in a World War that Putin wants.

And if that is correct, it begs the question of what conversations he is having, and has already had, with the likes of China, Iran, and North Korea.

The only other option that makes any sense is that he's lost his fucking marbles.  I guess that's a better option because it likely means that Russia is on their own here, but it probably also means that a tactical nuclear explosion is coming soon to a planet near you.

There's just no fucking way this is all about the price of shipping natural gas from Russia into Europe or any other "logical" explanation.

I think this is right. I think if it came to that China would probably sit it out. Just no reason for them to get involved as wars between other nations only strengthen them. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32072

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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

When it comes to Russia, we are most definitely worried about global thermonuclear war.

There seems to be a consensus that Putin is crazy as a shithouse rat.  The madness has overtaken any method, and we don't know wtf he'll do.

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TwiceHorn

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My theory, distilled from Fiona Hill and others, is that he embarked on this as a pre-election "wag the dog."  He intended to stoke the fears of the Russian people of NATO and the west and make himself their savior. And to invoke the ever-popular notions of "reassembling the Rodina," and "de-nazification."

Beyond that, I don't think he had a goal or a plan if things went awry.  And they have, and I don't think anyone knows, even Putin.

 

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Hermanator

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37 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I am growing more convinced by the day that what Putin wants is open conflict with NATO.  There are only two ways all of this makes logical sense.  The first is: he's crossing every line in Ukraine to try to force NATO to get involved.  And if NATO refrains, he's going to go ahead and attack a NATO nation and claim that it's retaliation for NATO's act of war when it armed Ukraine.  It's entirely possible that as crazy as it seems, this is all going exactly the way Putin wanted (minus Ukraine taking longer than he'd surely expected) and this was the first punch in a World War that Putin wants.

And if that is correct, it begs the question of what conversations he is having, and has already had, with the likes of China, Iran, and North Korea.

The only other option that makes any sense is that he's lost his fucking marbles.  I guess that's a better option because it likely means that Russia is on their own here, but it probably also means that a tactical nuclear explosion is coming soon to a planet near you.

There's just no fucking way this is all about the price of shipping natural gas from Russia into Europe or any other "logical" explanation.

Putin had shown his cards for years now that he wants to put the old solviet territories back together and especially Ukraine. That's what this is all about. He just didn't expect to suck this bad and Ukraine to hate the idea of Russian rule this much to say fuck you we'd rather die. 

So now he's in a bad spot. Fucked his oligarchs over. Fucked his business owners over. Fucking his people over. He's scrambling like crazy to control the message inside Russia and not let the masses know he's a monster who is murdering tons of civilians. He's floundering. 

That's why the US and NATO should NOT publicly join this fight. They should continue to do everything they can covertly to aid Ukraine defenses, I think even up to taking volunteers for professional soldiers to go in nondescript as foreign soldiers helping on their own. If they can get away with flying drone missions they should be doing that as long as it can be assumed to be Ukrainian. Just make sure to do everything under cover and publicly stay as far away from it as possible  so Putin is just left out to dry and keep encouraging Russians to take care of their problem from within. 

Then it just becomes what does Putin do? Retreat into Russia? Attack with battlefield nukes? Further provoke and launch full scale ICBMs and end his countries' existence as well as the US and all of Europe? 

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horn4life

horn4life 3838

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First off,.FUCK YOU if you think things would be better if Trump were President. You are too fucking stupid to engage with!

There are no good choices. But the good news is that now is that Putin (like a most recent golf cheat President) is literally dependent of convincing the entirety of the Russian populous that lies are the truth.  Unfortunately I think I am going to go get a couple K more out of the bank.  As I see no good way out of this, because I do not think Putin is a rational player. 

It's going to go one of two ways. 1) a protracted brutal war and occupation, ending in Putin trying to launch a nuke. 2) Putin gets boxed in within a year, and tries to launch a nuke.  Crazily, the only question I am starting to ask myself is whether or not there is somebody who will NOT obey the launch order.   Option 3 would be Putin gets killed by his own people, but I think right now that is the least likely of the scenarios. VERY fucking scary.  Super glad I am not Joe Biden. Even more happy that that dumb ass Putin compromised cock sucker is not in office.i

 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

the second point, if Putin so much as throws a rock at any of the Baltics, it's World War III immediately.  It won't be the same exercise at all because those are NATO nations.  There won't even be any discussion about "if."

He’s going to go after the Baltics if not stopped in Ukraine. He’s been using the same Nazi narratives there for decades.  Trump could be President by then too. He doesn’t give a shit if they’re NATO nations. He’ll threaten nuclear Holocaust again and then what? We’re going to end the world over Lithuania? You see how this goes. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19519

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He’s going to go after the Baltics if not stopped in Ukraine. He’s been using the same Nazi narratives there for decades.  Trump could be President by then too. He doesn’t give a shit if they’re NATO nations. He’ll threaten nuclear Holocaust again and then what? We’re going to end the world over Lithuania? You see how this goes. 

The United States and NATO will go to war over Lithuania.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

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23 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

The United States and NATO will go to war over Lithuania.

Yep.

But I think Russia would anticipate that and poison his crazy ass as soon as he opened his mouth about picking that fight, even behind closed doors.

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bolverk

bolverk 30314

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4 hours ago, burntorangebongos said:

That would be killing and a crime but not genocide.

The Russians wanted to assimilate them because they consider them the same. But Putin is crazy and lied as to why they needed to go in and de-nazify their country blah blah. I don't think genocide is what this is. It is vindictive shit by a dictator losing face and influence every day because he is a dumb bitch but I don't think the Russian people would want to kill Ukrainians for just existing the way that the Hutus wanted to kill the tutsis....every last one and their future grand kids. They are committing war crimes for sure but genocide is not what I think this is. STill is an atrocity, no doubt.

Not sure I entirely agree with you. It's kind of hard for us white 'mericans to wrap our melting-pot minds around the notion of ethnicity, but your use of the term "assimilation" cuts to the core of one aspect of the definition of genocide, which is the forcible elimination of cultural and linguistic aspects that distinguish one population group from another. You see, ethnicity is much more than just race.

If Putin's motives are to "assimilate" the Ukrainian people, thereby Russifying them, then I think it could be classified as genocide. Maybe from a Russian perspective, they actually do see Ukrainians as indistinguishable, but it's very evident that Ukrainians don't feel the same. They see themselves as being different from Russians. Yes, they may "look" the same to our eyes and have a great deal of similarities, but I don't think we should kid ourselves.

Ukrainian isn't simply a dialect or accent of Russian; it's a distinct language much like Dutch is from some German dialects, like Plattdeutsch, and far more different than English/Canadian/Australian to American. Sure, there's a degree of mutual intelligibility, but they're not the same language. It's maybe more like Portuguese versus Standard Spanish or Occitan French versus Catalan. Maybe Yiddish versus German? Or, god forbid, Cajun to French.

So, if "assimilation" of Ukrainians is indeed Putin's goal in building a new Russian Empire, then I think it'd absolutely constitute genocide. Granted, it's difficult for us to ascribe Putin's motives but not if making-them-the-same-as-us is it. That would mean erasing part of their heritage.

Edited by bolverk
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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 11186

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13 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Kentucky's gonna Kentucky, but I find it unlikely that most of their TRS was invested in a Russian bank.

EDIT:  and it wasn't.  According to this article, they sold off their small holdings at a loss on 2/23, but even that was a tiny fraction of their $26B portfolio.

$15M out of $26B

 

well, shit, jj got this. I need to read the entire damn thread before I respond to a post. Also, maybe ease up on the booze.

 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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What Russians are hearing from their state run media:

On Soloviev’s show—an Orwellian environment, typical of the Russian state media—the host and every panelist repeatedly denied the obvious, attempting to disprove the notion that Russia is at war with Ukraine. Soloviev asked: “Are we de facto at war with NATO?” Kartapolov concurred: “De facto, we are at war with NATO, because all of Ukraine’s military formations are carrying out NATO’s tasks... NATO is also solving another problem, getting rid of Europe’s excess migrants by sending them to fight in Ukraine.” He pompously concluded: “God is not in power, but in truth.”……

 

“On Soloviev’s show, political scientist and professor of history Elena Ponomareva asserted: “We’re fighting not only against NATO, but also against the Nazi European Union.”

Two days earlier, on a state TV show 60 Minutes, journalist Andrei Sidorchik rode the concept all the way down the hill when heexclaimed: “Joe Biden is a Nazi. The U.S. Congressmen⁠—Democrat and Republican⁠—are Nazis... German Chancellor is a Nazi... EU leaders are Nazis... because their sanctions are attempting to preserve Neo-Nazism in Ukraine.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-just-blew-up-putins-nazi-ukraine-bullshit

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staboner

staboner 5084

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

My theory, distilled from Fiona Hill and others, is that he embarked on this as a pre-election "wag the dog."  He intended to stoke the fears of the Russian people of NATO and the west and make himself their savior. And to invoke the ever-popular notions of "reassembling the Rodina," and "de-nazification."

Beyond that, I don't think he had a goal or a plan if things went awry.  And they have, and I don't think anyone knows, even Putin.

 

this here. its a CF and now he is sitting there with his dick in his hand and no clue what next. and that is certainly dangerous. but ascribing a premediated and coherent set of actions to this is likely a bit of BS. i understand homeslice wants old USSR, etc. but that is a deep emotional set of BS that is being spewed, not a sound strategy and/or intelligent set of actions to get from A to Z. he is at B and shit of borked. 

edit: well, depending on when this war started, maybe more like F or G. see good article up above ^^

Edited by staboner
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