Homes over 1M dollars in 100 most populous US metros

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

On 3/11/2022 at 11:19 AM, crash_davis said:

I have a Paradisa home. They are pretty big spec builders in Austin. They buy older homes, tear down the old home, and build newer homes. 

Last October, they bought a teardown across the street for $700k (a 2/1 needing a ton of work). They sat on the property for until Feb when they started the tear down and building of a new house. They had enough capital to sit on the property for about 4 months doing nothing. I'm sure they are going to ask $1.5M+ for the new house. There will be multiple offers. 

I realize I am part of the problem but no way did I pay $1.5M for my house, not even close. Shit's fucking crazy. 

That 4 months was probably them waiting for permits from the City.  COA permitting process is fucking broken.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

Home prices should come down once the boomers start moving to retirement homes and dieing off. Right now most of them still own homes, and the Millennials are hitting the home market as well. Two of the biggest generations in the market will lead to some scarcity. When one of them leaves it there will be a glut.

[crash_davis 23113]

36 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Home prices should come down once the boomers start moving to retirement homes and dieing off. Right now most of them still own homes, and the Millennials are hitting the home market as well. Two of the biggest generations in the market will lead to some scarcity. When one of them leaves it there will be a glut.

Just more homes for investors (non actual home owners who will live at the home) to buy. 

https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q3-2021/

 

[CooterBrown 18014]

That 4 months was probably them waiting for permits from the City.  COA permitting process is fucking broken.

Maybe. Paradisa builds a ton in my hood (Allandale) and they are demoing the house less than a week after closing. Their homes are usually done in 4 months. They probably had an “in” with the right people to get their permits approved instantly. I’d guess they probably already had a buyer for that house and the delay was more due to them making changes before getting started.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

The coolness factor of Austin is off the charts and ridiculous. If a young person wants to stay in Austin, they're most likely going to negatively impact their lifetime net worth unless they can buy a house and experience a continued run-up in prices. It would seem that it has to stop at some point. 

[closetohumping 17442]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The coolness factor of Austin is off the charts and ridiculous. If a young person wants to stay in Austin, they're most likely going to negatively impact their lifetime net worth unless they can buy a house and experience a continued run-up in prices. It would seem that it has to stop at some point. 

That's kind of where I'm at with OC.  I wouldn't describe it as cool, but love the weather, scenery and the beach.  But, I could cash in this equity and live a much easier life and invest (in what who knows these days) heavily, take more vacations, etc. But, where I live, the appreciation has been insane.  And like I've probably mentioned, once you leave it's much pricier to buy back in.  Pretty torn.

 

As for Austin, there's still some greatness to it, but alot of parts of it feel like Dallas. 

[Homercles 10205]

May be adding my Cedar Park house to that $1M list soon.  Buddy of mine at WilCo appraisal district said they’re anticipating %40+ increases across the district for the past year.  We built it for $350k in 2012, 5/4 @ 3,300 sq ft.  

[yoladu 4094]

On 3/11/2022 at 11:12 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Those numbers don't align with my expectations very well.

said every middle-aged man ever.

[yoladu 4094]

On 3/11/2022 at 12:56 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

It is in the similar vein of admission standards to universities. How many of us would not stand a chance of getting into UT today? 

[CooterBrown 18014]

The coolness factor of Austin is off the charts and ridiculous. If a young person wants to stay in Austin, they're most likely going to negatively impact their lifetime net worth unless they can buy a house and experience a continued run-up in prices. It would seem that it has to stop at some point. 

The run up has never stopped in any metro priced above Austin, so what’s the indicator that Austin will be the first?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

The run up has never stopped in any metro priced above Austin, so what’s the indicator that Austin will be the first?

Come on. You think 11% annual increases are sustainable? Show me some examples where that continues forever? 

[closetohumping 17442]

Not sure how accurate:

 

https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

 

TLDR: Irvine up 49% in one year.  Cleveland is fifth!

[Loop 1604 227]

Is this the (humble) brag thread? Asking for a friend.

[crash_davis 23113]

validates a ton of what's been discussed on this board about housing and rental price increases. recommended watching.

TLDW

1. 2010s had low new housing construction. demand is far outpacing supply by at least 4M homes nationwide. austin rent is up 40% YoY.

2. wall street firms buying up homes. not true in all locations but in sunbelt locations where more people are moving to. wall street firms are better positioned (cash, no inspections, close in 15 days, etc) than normal home buyers. sellers want to sell to wall street.

3. ceo who owns 35,000 fucking homes which they rent said they are doing a service by allowing young people to live the american dream by "renting the american dream".

i'm sure there will be people who are dogmatic and support free market to a fault but the situation right now is beyond fucked for younger people wanting to buy homes. something needs to be done about the large institutional buyers. 

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by crash_davis

[Shaggy3.0 1695]

[crash_davis 23113]

15 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

can there be a bubble if there is a shortage by 4M units? honest question.

[closetohumping 17442]

4 hours ago, crash_davis said:

validates a ton of what's been discussed on this board about housing and rental price increases. recommended watching.

TLDW

1. 2010s had low new housing construction. demand is far outpacing supply by at least 4M homes nationwide. austin rent is up 40% YoY.

2. wall street firms buying up homes. not true in all locations but in sunbelt locations where more people are moving to. wall street firms are better positioned (cash, no inspections, close in 15 days, etc) than normal home buyers. sellers want to sell to wall street.

3. ceo who owns 35,000 fucking homes which they rent said they are doing a service by allowing young people to live the american dream by "renting the american dream".

i'm sure there will be people who are dogmatic and support free market to a fault but the situation right now is beyond fucked for younger people wanting to buy homes. something needs to be done about the large institutional buyers. 

 

I had thought about cashing in on this equity, but now I'm not sure where I would go.  What I paid here in California is the going rate of other desirable markets (not as expensive as Socal, but still desirable).  Not sure what to do.  There has to be a plateau at some point.

 

I am a slimy, free market capitalist but even I can see this is not tenable.

Edited March 30, 2022 by closetohumping

[huge 3793]

just make more money...