China - Policy and Power in a During/Post Ukrainian War Era?

[horn4life 3755]

In a during/post Ukrainian Russia war, how do you think the Chinese interpret and try to capitalize on the new world we are in today?

China IMHO is actually in a very good position if they can somehow be seen as the negotiator to ending the mess Putin has found himself in.  But I think it foolish to think that China was unaware of what Putin was about to do during the Olympics.  That could also potentially be an aspect of aligning with Putin publicly to allow them to try to gain favor with the propaganda of a good Olympics and good TV ratings.  Sort of a "see we are not so bad" tv show, that would be wrecked by an earlier Putin attack.  I might argue that the delay after coming into position so early during the Olympics stretched their supply chain and allowed greater fortifying and planned resistance.  So to me the Chinese clearly got the better end of the bargain.  Now will they try to soften the financial blow for Russia and risk potentially the ire of the West?

There is an opportunity here for China, but I also could see a potential fly in the ointment.  Covid, and the stress that was put on long distance supply chains!  I think that the US and most modernized countries want to have greater control over their supply chains today, than perhaps at any point in history.  I think that plays against China in the longterm.  I think it plays even more negatively for China the longer this war goes on, so they have a vested interest in stabilization.  So to me there is both a political and fiscal upside to getting involved sooner rather than later.

The flip side is that dealing with an authoritarian Russia, is also politically in China's interest in that I could see fears of Westernization of Russia if Putin is ousted from power.  Something a communist authoritarian regime does not want.  I also am curious about the political calculation regarding military power from the Chinese viewpoint today versus a month ago regarding Russia's military prowess?  I'm sure that Putin was VERY sure of his military prowess a month ago.  China more and more has been trying to flex its military might as well, and how do they view how Russia fared in their long term thinking.

I think the biggest economic risk for China is the west simply pulling more and more higher end (profitable) hi tech production back closer to home.  That would be a drag on their economy, and slow their growth.  Plus it seems that their covid immunity leaves something to be desired, and that also risks supply line decision making long term to some degree.  So if they can come in and be the peacemaker, that might be the best position for them in the short term.  Stability means cash flow, and China needs that more than anything to keep growing.

 

Anyhow I thought it might be interesting conversation trying to weigh the contemplations that China is making and evaluating right now?  Since most everything is a WAG regarding their decision making, since it's such a closed society.  

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

China will take all of Russia’s defense contracts for starters. No way Russia can make up their own losses, let alone start exporting anything high-tech. 

[horn4life 3755]

Well apparently nobody else shares my curiosity about what path China takes after this world order disruption.  I feel like I wrote an essay on geometry for world history... 😉

 

[Brisketexan 104628]

China's smart play is to cozy up to a weakened Russia and, in exchange for the privilege of access to Chinese commerce and purchasing power, Russia gives China oil and mining concessions in the eastern half of Russia that will make China a global controller of resources for the next two generations at least.  

It is in China's interest to have Russia in a desperate enough position to give away the farm, but not so desperate that they no longer have a farm to give away.  So that's how China will play it.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

We should really work on getting all strategic goods manufactured in friendly countries in the Western Hemisphere.  I don't care if we import fireworks and toys from China, but medicine?  And having all the chip manufacturing in Asia?  Nope.

Would much rather pay more and bring as much as we can home and the rest to Latin America.

And keep our Navy strong.