Boeing 737 carrying 132 passengers crashes in China

[ClubWhatever 12156]

I looked the flight track for the AA587 Airbus where the guy actually did stomp on the pedals and broke off the stabilizer.   It doesn't look at all like this.  These seem like turns.  What the hell.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

There sure aren't, but then again there "weren't any new safety features" on the MAX either until Boeing notified everyone about MCAS.

 

My point is - I don't trust MacDouglas/Boeing or any of their own investigation team or cheerleaders. I'd rather see the actual investigation results before discussing across 4 pages how stupid and inept non-American pilots are - especially after we've already done this before in the MAX thread

The plane has been in production for 28 years. They didn’t sneak some super secret safety feature into it that just now acted up and killed everyone. DaysOff actively flies this type and others, and could speak more into it, but you’re jumping at shadows. 

[Hanrahan 1306]

Don't let facts and common sense get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

[ClubWhatever 12156]

I stretched out the plot to make the distance per degree along each axis roughly the same.  When you do this, there's no way for that first position deviation on the blue curve to be physically accurate.  I believe the position was captured using ADS-B, which relies on the aircraft electronics to process and re-send a GPS signal.  I understand anomalies can and do occur, but it's interesting that in this case it appears an anomaly occurred just before bad stuff started happening.

I also marked the approximate point at which the wing tip part was found.  This is based on a statement in the Chinese press that it was about 6 miles from the impact crater.  I'm assuming it's from the wingtip because the description matches the livery on the wingtip;  it could also be from the tail.

So you have:  1.  Anomalous position blip.  2. Turn to left along with drop in altitude.  3.  Turn back to right along with steeper drop in altitude.  4.  Another turn to left and leveling off of altitude.  5.  Final turn to right accompanied by resumption of altitude loss.

[Laxtonto 12106]

7 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I stretched out the plot to make the distance per degree along each axis roughly the same.  When you do this, there's no way for that first position deviation on the blue curve to be physically accurate.  I believe the position was captured using ADS-B, which relies on the aircraft electronics to process and re-send a GPS signal.  I understand anomalies can and do occur, but it's interesting that in this case it appears an anomaly occurred just before bad stuff started happening.

I also marked the approximate point at which the wing tip part was found.  This is based on a statement in the Chinese press that it was about 6 miles from the impact crater.  I'm assuming it's from the wingtip because the description matches the livery on the wingtip;  it could also be from the tail.

So you have:  1.  Anomalous position blip.  2. Turn to left along with drop in altitude.  3.  Turn back to right along with steeper drop in altitude.  4.  Another turn to left and leveling off of altitude.  5.  Final turn to right accompanied by resumption of altitude loss.

Could the GPS blip be driven by essentially a shutdown/reboot of all power systems and the total power failure then impacted other systems and produced a cascading system failure? Then they finally restored some power and then lost it again in the end. 

 

The GPS anomaly is probably going to generate a ton of questions until they get the blackbox info to overlay it. 

[Hagbard Celine 10913]

to the best of my knowledge there is no documented evidence of a meteorite striking an aircraft

a woman in alabama was hit by a meteorite fragment in 1954, the only documented case in the last 400 years of a human being struck by a space rock

pending new information coming to light, i'm putting down $20 on #teammeteorite

i will also hedge my bet and put down $20 on jewish space lasers

[Bevo 13598]

6 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

to the best of my knowledge there is no documented evidence of a meteorite striking an aircraft

a woman in alabama was hit by a meteorite fragment in 1954, the only documented case in the last 400 years of a human being struck by a space rock

pending new information coming to light, i'm putting down $20 on #teammeteorite

i will also hedge my bet and put down $20 on jewish space lasers

my bet is China blames stray pangolins in cargo chewing through wires

[Dennis Taylor 18855]

22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

my bet is China blames stray pangolins in cargo chewing through wires

Or those pesky wet market bats

[ClubWhatever 12156]

22 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Could the GPS blip be driven by essentially a shutdown/reboot of all power systems and the total power failure then impacted other systems and produced a cascading system failure? Then they finally restored some power and then lost it again in the end. 

 

The GPS anomaly is probably going to generate a ton of questions until they get the blackbox info to overlay it. 

Well, damn, the GPS blip turned out to be a data transcription error by me.  I even checked my data twice against their tweet but didn't catch it until I went to the flightradar24 website and realized they had a csv file of it.  So no evidence of any kind of navigation error.  It's just a bunch of descending turns.

The little course deviation near where the wing part was found is correct (checked against the csv file).  Seems like something broke off, airplane rolled/turned left and then  turned back.  I've seen pictures of the tail and right side wing tip in the crater area.  No pictures of the left side wing tip.  So if they are positively reacting to sudden changes, it seems like there is a desire to live.

[Laxtonto 12106]

7 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Well, damn, the GPS blip turned out to be a data transcription error by me.  I even checked my data twice against their tweet but didn't catch it until I went to the flightradar24 website and realized they had a csv file of it.  So no evidence of any kind of navigation error.  It's just a bunch of descending turns.

The little course deviation near where the wing part was found is correct (checked against the csv file).  Seems like something broke off, airplane rolled/turned left and then  turned back.  I've seen pictures of the tail and right side wing tip in the crater area.  No pictures of the left side wing tip.  So if they are positively reacting to sudden changes, it seems like there is a desire to live.

So like a chunk of the left wing fell off and it went into a weird death spiral?

I don’t know enough about flight mechanics to really figure out what would have to fall off for this type of pattern to show up in the data, but I am starting to feel like that the kamikaze hypothesis is looking unlikely. 

[Updawg 2286]

I’m sticking with mcas

[DaysOff 7971]

There's no mcas on the NG versions of the 737.

[Dahobbs 17677]

25 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

So like a chunk of the left wing fell off and it went into a weird death spiral?

I don’t know enough about flight mechanics to really figure out what would have to fall off for this type of pattern to show up in the data, but I am starting to feel like that the kamikaze hypothesis is looking unlikely. 

I'm assuming the wing came apart due to high stress although also makes sense that the partial loss of a wing or control service may result in similar turns. Out there theory (but apparently not impossible given prior history in Ukraine): turns to avoid weapon of some sort? (Not really serious, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being used as some sort of false flag to justify military action). 

[DalTxHornFan 3116]

20 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm assuming the wing came apart due to high stress 

That's why all planes have "Never Exceed Speeds" -- I'm confident they were doing may more than just kinda/sorta pushing that envelope in the final moments.

[Updawg 2286]

There's no mcas on the NG versions of the 737.

I know, just bringing up a sore subject

[Homercles 10206]

Pickle fork failure?  Given other international carriers found cracks, I’d assume Asian airlines would inspect as well…but you never know.  Outside of that I can’t imagine the wing would break and the found piece was a winglet/slat/etc.  

Speculating is absolutely useless here but it’s ‘fun’ nontheless.  

Edited March 31, 2022 by Homercles

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

2 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Pickle fork failure?  Given other international carriers found cracks, I’d assume Asian airlines would inspect as well…but you never know.  Outside of that I can’t imagine the wing would break and the found piece was a winglet/slat/etc.  

Speculating is absolutely useless here but it’s ‘fun’ nontheless.  

During upset training it was mentioned that the outer wing was experiencing significantly more g force than the cabin during a recovery. 
 

I don’t know why it broke off, but I could see some sort of excessive recovery attempt from whatever caused the initial dive to cause structural failure. 

[SaucyJack 3500]

11 hours ago, Bevo said:

my bet is China blames stray pangolins in cargo chewing through wires

[Homercles 10206]

14 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

During upset training it was mentioned that the outer wing was experiencing significantly more g force than the cabin during a recovery. 
 

I don’t know why it broke off, but I could see some sort of excessive recovery attempt from whatever caused the initial dive to cause structural failure. 

Was it confirmed to be the actual wing they found?  I’m out of date on this one.  

[DalTxHornFan 3116]

The pic I saw looked like a detached winglet.  (But there are probably lots of different pics out there, I suppose.)

Edited April 1, 2022 by DalTxHornFan

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Was it confirmed to be the actual wing they found?  I’m out of date on this one.  

I’m not sure. 

[Homercles 10206]

2 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

The pic I saw looked like a detached winglet.  (But there are probably lots of different pics out there, I suppose.)

Got the pic?  What color was the piece?

[DalTxHornFan 3116]

7 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Got the pic?  What color was the piece?

This the one I was thinking of:

[Homercles 10206]

Holy shit

[Wally Pryor 5262]

Flight data from a black box recovered from a Chinese plane crash earlier this year indicates someone in the cockpit intentionally crashed the jet, it's been reported. 

The China Eastern Boeing 737-800 went into a sudden nosedive, appeared to briefly recover, and then slammed into the ground in the mountainous Guangxi area on March 21. 

Today, the Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials' preliminary assessment - who analysed both black boxes at a government lab in Washington, DC - which they say puts the finger at a person inside the most secure area of a plane.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10826335/Chinese-plane-crash-caused-intentionally-cockpit-black-box-suggests.html?ito=push-notification&ci=uIRIhTLAS2&cri=4BAwng_st_&si=O6ZnlLIqOZde&xi=fde822ba-17d5-4217-a7c5-62a5e386cd79&ai=10826335

[Brisketexan 105298]

Just now, Wally Pryor said:

Flight data from a black box recovered from a Chinese plane crash earlier this year indicates someone in the cockpit intentionally crashed the jet, it's been reported. 

The China Eastern Boeing 737-800 went into a sudden nosedive, appeared to briefly recover, and then slammed into the ground in the mountainous Guangxi area on March 21. 

Today, the Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials' preliminary assessment - who analysed both black boxes at a government lab in Washington, DC - which they say puts the finger at a person inside the most secure area of a plane.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10826335/Chinese-plane-crash-caused-intentionally-cockpit-black-box-suggests.html?ito=push-notification&ci=uIRIhTLAS2&cri=4BAwng_st_&si=O6ZnlLIqOZde&xi=fde822ba-17d5-4217-a7c5-62a5e386cd79&ai=10826335

Man.  That's a lot worst than peepee in your coke.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

It's the Daily Mail. About as trustworthy as The Suzhou Daily Gazette. 

But probably right on this one.

[DaysOff 7971]

WSJ reporting as well. Like I said, outside the tail falling off you have to try to make a transport category airplane go vertical.

[Captainant 27752]

On a similar note while I was googling to find any other reporting, I came across a Malaysian Airlines flight that had "technical issues" in early April this year causing the aircraft to dive 7,000ft so aggressively the passengers got negative g's. The pilot recovered and safely landed the aircraft, but jeeze, I'd be keen to know what caused such a similar failure to the other recent 737 crashes.

Combined with the recent news of the FAA finding the 787's certification documents incomplete... I'm feeling less and less keen to get going on a boeing.

[SquishMitten 10426]

20 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It's the Daily Mail. About as trustworthy as The Suzhou Daily Gazette. 

But probably right on this one.

 

20 hours ago, DaysOff said:

WSJ reporting as well. Like I said, outside the tail falling off you have to try to make a transport category airplane go vertical.

Do any of these reports cite their sources as someone other than the Chinese? Either the airline or government agencies? Because that's all I've seen reported so far. Think I'll continue to withhold judgment until the FAA or someone other than China comes to a conclusion.

[elfenix 34331]

4 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 

Do any of these reports cite their sources as someone other than the Chinese? Either the airline or government agencies? Because that's all I've seen reported so far. Think I'll continue to withhold judgment until the FAA or someone other than China comes to a conclusion.

Quote

the Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials' preliminary assessment - who analysed both black boxes at a government lab in Washington, DC

 

[SquishMitten 10426]

Ah. Thanks. I guess I assumed that was from sometime in the past since it was called their "preliminary" findings vs. the reports I read out of China seemed like final reports. Maybe outlets/agencies just using differing terminology.  

[Macanudo 13010]

20 hours ago, Captainant said:

On a similar note while I was googling to find any other reporting, I came across a Malaysian Airlines flight that had "technical issues" in early April this year causing the aircraft to dive 7,000ft so aggressively the passengers got negative g's. The pilot recovered and safely landed the aircraft, but jeeze, I'd be keen to know what caused such a similar failure to the other recent 737 crashes.

Combined with the recent news of the FAA finding the 787's certification documents incomplete... I'm feeling less and less keen to get going on a boeing.

I hear Aeroflot has some nice planes now a days. 

[DaysOff 7971]

Ah. Thanks. I guess I assumed that was from sometime in the past since it was called their "preliminary" findings vs. the reports I read out of China seemed like final reports. Maybe outlets/agencies just using differing terminology.  

China isn't going to say shit, but the word on the street is that the first officer did it. He was a former demoted line check captain that 'lost face' and was going to take everyone with him.

[SimonBolivar 10958]

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

China isn't going to say shit, but the word on the street is that the first officer did it. He was a former demoted line check captain that 'lost face' and was going to take everyone with him.

Well that wasn't very nice of him.

[GringoSalado 1651]

28 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

China isn't going to say shit, but the word on the street is that the first officer did it. He was a former demoted line check captain that 'lost face' and was going to take everyone with him.

So F.O. Wi Dai Nao?

 

That's all I got

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

Puts China in a bad position. They probably don't mind blaming a pilot but only if the pilot made a mistake, but mainly if the pilot failed to receive adequate training from evil American corporation. A suicidal/homicidal pilot is a bad look for a society where everyone does their job.

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2682]

2 hours ago, DaysOff said:

China isn't going to say shit, but the word on the street is that the first officer did it. He was a former demoted line check captain that 'lost face' and was going to take everyone with him.

everyone lost face after that