Jump to content

2022 Summer Season: Flavor-Aid (Strength: Prison Wine)

BurntOrange&White

By BurntOrange&White
in Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Hookem2147
Hookem2147
immamac
immamac

Well moro ojomo is getting a surly nil deal for sure now 

Mitch Cumsteen
Mitch Cumsteen

I went down to 6 wins after the Sark/Ojomo tweet and then back up to 10 wins after watching Ewers make two practice throws.  Situation is very fluid.

Posted Images

JBJ

JBJ 3654

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fud said:

In general, they're based on a combination of, more or less in order, recent performance on a play by play efficiency basis, returning production, overall team talent, and distant performance on a play by play efficiency basis. Some try to factor in coaching as well. Similar models are used to help build internal power rankings to handicap neutral field lines at books, which are then adjusted based on various other variables 

It's basically take the previous FPI, deduct out players graduating, add in talent from previous recruiting classes.

I haven't looked at numbers, but I bet there's a lot of production loss across the nation because the extra Covid eligibilty.  Whereas we already purged most of that out during coaching turnover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4915

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Out of curiosity, will some of your who are pessimistic about this season change your tone at all if Mathis and another portal body (OL or LB) is added? Or do you just believe the writing is on the wall?

Obviously it’s hard to know what kind of quality we could add at OL or LB at this stage, but I know personally adding Mathis is worth at least an extra win or two, imo.

The folks on the Washington Huskies board said we would quickly get tired of the WTF losses by Sark like they did when we hired Sark. Kansas definitely qualifies as WTF loss last year even with the talent we had during last season. Nothing will change the outlook for some of us because the outlook for us is based on the head of the snake. Yet, we want to be very wrong and see if the people Sark has surrounded himself with somehow change the equation. So no, players additions will not change the pessimism for me. The staff somehow gelling and showing they can make really good adjustments during games is the only thing that will change it for me.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skipper

Skipper 6128

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hookem2147 said:

Ah, the Statesman is choosing to go this route for the second straight offseason

 

Only Brian Davis would thinks fans give a fuck about how "comfortable" QB's are with the media instead of, ya know, how comfortable/productive they are as an actual QB.  I continue to be amazed that dumb son of a bitch can manage to be employed as a sports writer.  

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49144

Posted
Posted

 

Link to article on Top 25 :  https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-top-25-rankings-ESPN-releases-preseason-FPI-for-2022-186155270/

 

AUG 2016:      What goes into the preseason ESPN FPI ratings?

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

Preseason FPI debuted in 2014, and you can read more about how it performed in these recaps of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. In short, if preseason FPI, which was run retroactively to 2005, had been used with no update to predict every game over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite would have won 72 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games (Vegas closing line was 75 percent accurate). 

     What is ESPN's College Football Power Index? 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hermanator

Hermanator 7032

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Link to article on Top 25 :  https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-top-25-rankings-ESPN-releases-preseason-FPI-for-2022-186155270/

 

AUG 2016:      What goes into the preseason ESPN FPI ratings?

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

Preseason FPI debuted in 2014, and you can read more about how it performed in these recaps of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. In short, if preseason FPI, which was run retroactively to 2005, had been used with no update to predict every game over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite would have won 72 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games (Vegas closing line was 75 percent accurate). 

     What is ESPN's College Football Power Index? 

 

Nbc Brooklyn 99 GIF by Brooklyn Nine-Nine

 

Espn is just trolling us at this point. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
oldhorn2

oldhorn2 430

Posted
Posted

....poor Texas fan base...we are like winos trying to come out of the haze of Koolaide...We emplore the football team...a song on our lips....

Treat me mean and cruel

treat me like a fool 

but love me...

wring my faithful heart

tearing it all apart

just love me...........ohhh yeah

Link to comment
Share on other sites
stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, ButtFumble said:

I am not liking how this schedule sets up for Texas

Texas will do what they always do and that is dick off against ULM and "try and keep it simple to not give it all away" while ignoring that fucking Alabama already knows 110% of the shit that Sark will do so no need to "keep it simple to be double top secret"

Alabama gets a lot tougher test against Utah State for their first game and Utah State will already have a game under their belt prior to Alabama and of course Alabama does not do the "double top secret" shit because it is no secret they are going to try and butt fuck you onto submission and stomp your ass more after that

so those two opening games set up like shit for Texas especially if Texas does not approach ULM as a game to simply try and run to perfection 100% of what they plan to do all season and fuck the "guard the playbook" shit

after that is UTSA that will be doing all they can to make a name for themselves and even if Texas manages a decent win well it is still UTSA after probably not a great outcome against Alabama and if UTSA is even close then shit can get bad fast from then on because.....then Tech at Tech

then WVU and even at Texas well that can be ugly all the more so depending on the prior games....plus easy to overlook them for the next "big game" OU

after OU won or lose is ISU that Texas is always under prepared for

then OkState on the road that always wants to prove something against Texas (they all do and Texas never seems to get that ever)

then KSU (see ISU)

then TCU who knows how that will go, but by then the season will be mostly written for Texas

then Kansas......hero or zero here........1 loss maybe 2 or gets fired before he can fuck up and lose to Kansas twice

then Baylor.....with either something to build on or something to consider firing a coach over on the line

this schedule could not be much worse on terms of how it falls for a team in the position Texas is in

What if I were to tell you that Texas beats ULM and Bama and then loses to UTSA.  Would you be ok with that scenario?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Exactly what I've been thinking. I hope Quinn is as awesome as Keith, as long as he doesn't become a baby sex toy used by satanist techno freaks. 

I hope he beats OU. And if he becomes a baby sex toy used by satanist techno freaks to make that happen, then so be it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32848

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, stork642 said:

What if I were to tell you that Texas beats ULM and Bama and then loses to UTSA.  Would you be ok with that scenario?

I would absolutely take that right now. 

We beat Alabama. They're screwed by our loss. One step closer to the greatest offseason in Texas message board history as the lightning rod Jeff Traylor is the early betting favorite for the job. 

At this point we can't count on good football for entertainment. Might as well get it somehow. 

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tokamak

tokamak 6392

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, stork642 said:

What if I were to tell you that Texas beats ULM and Bama and then loses to UTSA.  Would you be ok with that scenario?

Beating Bama is essentially the same thing as winning the national championship. Aggy out front should've told ya.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

Do they just use the ranking/rating or do they account for attrition? If they are just plugging that number in there regardless of who is still on campus, I have some bad news for them about the 2019 Texas class.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Loop 1604

Loop 1604 227

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Link to article on Top 25 :  https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-top-25-rankings-ESPN-releases-preseason-FPI-for-2022-186155270/

 

AUG 2016:      What goes into the preseason ESPN FPI ratings?

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

Preseason FPI debuted in 2014, and you can read more about how it performed in these recaps of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. In short, if preseason FPI, which was run retroactively to 2005, had been used with no update to predict every game over the last 10 seasons, the FPI favorite would have won 72 percent of FBS-versus-FBS games (Vegas closing line was 75 percent accurate). 

     What is ESPN's College Football Power Index? 

 

Michael Jordan Reaction GIF

Link to comment
Share on other sites
oldhorn2

oldhorn2 430

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Skipper said:

Only Brian Davis would thinks fans give a fuck about how "comfortable" QB's are with the media instead of, ya know, how comfortable/productive they are as an actual QB.  I continue to be amazed that dumb son of a bitch can manage to be employed as a sports writer.  

Goddammit!...I hate that ....when a sports writer doesnt have a clue what else to write he says ....so and so is more comfortable .....AAAARRRRRGH!...What in hell does that even mean? I want the bastards to play football and have no mercy on the other guy. Comfortable my ass!

Edited by oldhorn2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ousux

ousux 5597

Posted
Posted
Only Brian Davis would thinks fans give a fuck about how "comfortable" QB's are with the media instead of, ya know, how comfortable/productive they are as an actual QB.  I continue to be amazed that dumb son of a bitch can manage to be employed as a sports writer.  
I just now watched the thing..and if we're factoring in this isn't Cards first time facing a roomful of media and he's also been taking questions on camera for a year now with NIL stuff...I'd say Ewers either won the day or at least call it a draw. He did well for his first ever college media session.

But you're right..I'd rather Quinn awkwardly mumble during interviews and light it up on the field vs the opposite.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lhorn

Lhorn 4911

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Lmfao #6 in pre season. Surely they picked the wrong Texas.  Unless they meant 6 losses

Maybe they meant “Texas Aggies?”

It’s hard to reconcile the gap between the battered wife syndrome on this board that seems to expect 7-8 wins and the writers who seem to think a team that ended the year losing 6 in a row might be a top 10 team. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...