Jump to content

2022 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
in Baseball

 Share

Recommended Posts

Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t decide if Tucker fucked himself by waiting to sign an extension. He bet on himself and has come through with a very good season so far. But can the Astros give him more than they gave Yordan?

Yes.  He is way more of a 2 way player than Yordan and he's got no injury history while Yordan has had surgery on both his knees.  There's also less risk associated with his body type than Yordan's.  I always assumed they would (at worst for Tucker) get equal money, but most likely see Tucker get more than Yordan.  Astros should go 6/150 and Tucker should sign that imo. Fair deal both ways. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 35.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • tx 3 putt

    4767

  • Scraps

    1996

  • WBT

    1775

  • Wulaw Horn

    1757

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Txslnghrns
Txslnghrns

Fuk Houston.

We’reTexas
We’reTexas
gurt
gurt

This postseason has become more sentimental for me and my wife's family.  My father in law is the biggest Astros fan I know.  He watches every game without fail, even DVRing them if he can't watch liv

Posted Images

Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- he was at 101 a couple weeks ago when I looked at him- which was pretty brutal for him, so that's a pretty nice run to get back up to 129.  I don't think it can just be about walks- we do need to see him drive the ball more, I think, if it's to be sustainable.  Walks are great and a cheat code in some ways, but man- looking at stats from the other day in NY and he's at like 40% for example, of getting the guy home from 3rd and league average is 60%. If he's going to hit behind Yordan and in front of Tucker he's going to have to do some of the work himself.  

The War calcs must show that he's still playing pretty good defense.  I know he's been off on a couple throws lately- so wonder what that's all about.  Random?  Or something nagging?

I've given up on the MVP guy.  He does need to be above average to fringe all star level though for us to really go.  I think we saw that in the WS last year when he was so awful and such an anchor when he's not that dude.  Frustrating cat.  This should be his prime.  I really wonder if he doesn't have too much stuff in his head.  He was always a chip on his shoulder baseball rat guy that maximized. Having a wife, commercials, race horses, salsa lines etc. might be tougher for him to keep his edge than some other more physically talented guys.  Has a real Rocky 3 beginning of the movie feel to his last couple seasons. Hell, he doesn't even seem arrogant anymore.  

I have to think he’s been mostly just unlucky so far. Very low BABIP, Statcast numbers aren’t bad, etc. Regression seems to be in effect right now. And he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline, which makes his offensive floor very high (I think we were seeing it a couple of weeks ago).

Also Rocky 3 might be my favorite move ever, so repped for that.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I have to think he’s been mostly just unlucky so far. Very low BABIP, Statcast numbers aren’t bad, etc. Regression seems to be in effect right now. And he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline, which makes his offensive floor very high (I think we were seeing it a couple of weeks ago).

Also Rocky 3 might be my favorite move ever, so repped for that.

Some of it's unlucky, but he's also been hitting those stupid pop ups really frequently and lazy fly balls to the wall. He needs to level his swing plane a little more (he's working on that I think), or better yet, get on some steroids/HGH so the warning track stuff gets over the wall.  I need that guy back that is going to hit 35 HR's throughout his prime.  Whatever it takes Alex, whatever it takes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted

Hell, Baseball reference has negative defensive WAR for Bregman and him only at 1.4 WAR- which would have him be about a 3 WAR player for the year.  Lowest Slug of his career.  Walk rate in line with his MVP ish seasons.  Difference between MVP Bregman and this Bregman is 55 points in his batting average and an ISO that's 70 -100 points below his ISO back then.  He's got a 170 ISO.  That's not great for a guy in the middle of the order.  I like 100 points OBP separation from BA (he's overperforming there at 120) and at least 200 in his slugging.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevwun

kevwun 15806

Posted
Posted (edited)

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

Edited by kevwun
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33032

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

You're lucky @Beau Vine doesn't read this thread. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…even when hitting 40 HR, he wasn’t a guy with elite exit velo or hard hit rates. In 2019, he was 53rd percentile in EV, 42nd percentile in hard hit%. He isn’t Yordan, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball at an extraordinary rate, he never was; he was a guy whose “game power” seemed to exceed his “raw power.” So my guess is that some of those fly balls that are dying at the track may have been HRs the last few seasons, with the livelier ball. That may call for an adjustment in his approach. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WBT

WBT 20626

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…

Bingo, I think the dejuiced ball explains a lot of his difference in results

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77123

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hell, Baseball reference has negative defensive WAR for Bregman and him only at 1.4 WAR- which would have him be about a 3 WAR player for the year.  Lowest Slug of his career.  Walk rate in line with his MVP ish seasons.  Difference between MVP Bregman and this Bregman is 55 points in his batting average and an ISO that's 70 -100 points below his ISO back then.  He's got a 170 ISO.  That's not great for a guy in the middle of the order.  I like 100 points OBP separation from BA (he's overperforming there at 120) and at least 200 in his slugging.

 


I’ll quote Altuve - bregman or yuli can get hot and carry this team. 

 

both guys are trending upward. Keep sending them out there 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah I’ve wondered if he’s the type of hitter who may be more impacted than others by a ball that doesn’t carry as well…even when hitting 40 HR, he wasn’t a guy with elite exit velo or hard hit rates. In 2019, he was 53rd percentile in EV, 42nd percentile in hard hit%. He isn’t Yordan, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball at an extraordinary rate, he never was; he was a guy whose “game power” seemed to exceed his “raw power.” So my guess is that some of those fly balls that are dying at the track may have been HRs the last few seasons, with the livelier ball. That may call for an adjustment in his approach. 

 

Yes.  He hit a disproportionate amount of wall scrapers and crawford box jobs when he was going so well in 2018 & 2019.  Thus, my suggestion he load up on vitamin S to counteract that if this new mush ball is a thing.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


I’ll quote Altuve - bregman or yuli can get hot and carry this team. 

 

both guys are trending upward. Keep sending them out there 

I mean, there is absolutely zero thought that we will do anything other than keep sending Bregman out there.  Yuli, I strongly suspect, has 5 or 6 weeks to audition for the job the rest of the way.  We thought he was getting a little frisky a couple weeks ago and then he had an 0-21 or something and it was broken by a couple ground ball doubles down the left field line that weren't exactly crushed, and a couple loopers as well.  Nobody wants Yuli to hit more than me.  At some time age gets us all, and there's nothing in his batted ball profiles to suggest him being unlucky the way there is for Bregs. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes.  He hit a disproportionate amount of wall scrapers and crawford box jobs when he was going so well in 2018 & 2019.  Thus, my suggestion he load up on vitamin S to counteract that if this new mush ball is a thing.  

Nah, we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that he’s just not a 40 HR guy. I expect him to be more like 2017 Bregman than 2019 Bregman.

He will finish the year in the neighborhood of .265/.375/.475 with 20-25 HR. I think that’s more or less who he is, and that is really good.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19125

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Nah, we just need to adjust our expectations and accept that he’s just not a 40 HR guy. I expect him to be more like 2017 Bregman than 2019 Bregman.

He will finish the year in the neighborhood of .265/.375/.475 with 20-25 HR. I think that’s more or less who he is, and that is really good.

I'd take that statline for him in a heartbeat at the EOY. He's going to need to have a better second half than he did first half to get there, but he's always been a slow starter.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 1966

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, kevwun said:

That jives with my eyes.  His defense isn't what it was.  His throws have been off.  The Bregman of 2017-2019 would charge in, one hand a ball and fire a rope to first base.  Then he would hit a homer and strut for the dugout cam.  It really does seem like a confidence thing.  He's not the same cocky asshole anymore.

I think it's because he got married. Regular pussy can tame the savage beast.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Js1

Js1 85439

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Why do we hate JV and refuse to score for him?  Can't even blame this on the lineup.  This is about as close to optimized as we can get today...

9 yesterday means we were pretty much guaranteed 2 or fewer today.  God damn law of averages. 

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9507

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

I can’t decide if Tucker fucked himself by waiting to sign an extension. He bet on himself and has come through with a very good season so far. But can the Astros give him more than they gave Yordan?

An excellent defender and a 30/30 guy?

sure 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...