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2022 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19145

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2 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Half this board was irate that Houston didn’t offer more to Carlos than they did, but it’s hard to argue as of today that Peña isn’t a way better value. 
 

Hank did a good job with explaining this so I won't go back and talk about what he said- but I would like to latch on to this little point... Springer and Correa were really really good in the playoffs, just like they were really really good in the regular season. It's my opinion that really good hitters do a better job of hitting really good pitchers, and average or above average hitters do a really really good job of hitting mistakes.  I like Jake. I've grown to like Pena.  Both of those guys are doing a really good job of approximating what the other guys gave you for much much much less money during the regular season.  

I'm worried about them being overmatched in the playoffs until I'm not.  Neither Springer nor Correa were overmatched in the playoffs and I knew that.  I've seen plenty of Astros compile numbers against the 4th starter for a second division team in August and then look laughably overmatched in the playoffs, when they don't face shitty teams, when the shittiest pitchers of the best teams don't get any innings, and when you are game planned for and scouted with all the abilities a first class organization can throw at you.  We don't know that they will succeed in that environment.  I hope they do.  Sometimes, it's not about "better value" it's about- what's the top end of your talent- what's your best.  The A's ran into this every time they were in the playoffs. So do the Twins.  So do the NL Central teams lots of times.  Maybe it's all small sample size bullshit, but maybe it isn't.  

Just something to think about when you are talking about value. Sometimes the upside of value is so that you can afford to get an apex predator elsewhere. Soto is that apex predator and if you have the room in the payroll and guys around you, or if you just don't care about the payroll, he's going to make your team even more of a bitch in the playoffs in a way that Jeremy Pena isn't.  

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This postseason has become more sentimental for me and my wife's family.  My father in law is the biggest Astros fan I know.  He watches every game without fail, even DVRing them if he can't watch liv

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8086

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hank did a good job with explaining this so I won't go back and talk about what he said- but I would like to latch on to this little point... Springer and Correa were really really good in the playoffs, just like they were really really good in the regular season. It's my opinion that really good hitters do a better job of hitting really good pitchers, and average or above average hitters do a really really good job of hitting mistakes.  I like Jake. I've grown to like Pena.  Both of those guys are doing a really good job of approximating what the other guys gave you for much much much less money during the regular season.  

I'm worried about them being overmatched in the playoffs until I'm not.  Neither Springer nor Correa were overmatched in the playoffs and I knew that.  I've seen plenty of Astros compile numbers against the 4th starter for a second division team in August and then look laughably overmatched in the playoffs, when they don't face shitty teams, when the shittiest pitchers of the best teams don't get any innings, and when you are game planned for and scouted with all the abilities a first class organization can throw at you.  We don't know that they will succeed in that environment.  I hope they do.  Sometimes, it's not about "better value" it's about- what's the top end of your talent- what's your best.  The A's ran into this every time they were in the playoffs. So do the Twins.  So do the NL Central teams lots of times.  Maybe it's all small sample size bullshit, but maybe it isn't.  

Just something to think about when you are talking about value. Sometimes the upside of value is so that you can afford to get an apex predator elsewhere. Soto is that apex predator and if you have the room in the payroll and guys around you, or if you just don't care about the payroll, he's going to make your team even more of a bitch in the playoffs in a way that Jeremy Pena isn't.  

I'm not sure I have your faith in Jake as even a solid regular-season guy, but I totally understand your overall point and agree with it. I just hope we can stumble into an affordable trade target who becomes Soto for at least the remainder of however long our 2022 season turns out to be. Wherefore art thou, Jorge Soler? 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19145

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11 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'm not sure I have your faith in Jake as even a solid regular-season guy, but I totally understand your overall point and agree with it. I just hope we can stumble into an affordable trade target who becomes Soto for at least the remainder of however long our 2022 season turns out to be. Wherefore art thou, Jorge Soler? 

Jake needs to learn to take the occasional walk. It would be nice if Jake didn't strike out 30% of the time. But, he makes good solid hard contact and is plenty athletic and that will work just fine to make his floor that of a passable CF and likely a really good 8th hole hitter. 

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

Vandy commit. Hopefully they have some sort of indication that they can sign him.

 

Interesting comparison by MLB.com

Spoiler

"A mainstay on U.S. national teams since he was 12, Clifford won gold medals at international competitions with the 12-and-under squad in 2015 and the 15-and-under club in 2018. He has the tools to be one of the better all-around hitters in the 2022 high school class, though his stock took a slight hit when he didn't light up the showcase circuit last summer. If he doesn't go early enough in the Draft to sign, he'll head to Vanderbilt and be eligible again as a sophomore in 2024. With a picturesque left-handed swing and a good bat path, Clifford is equipped to hit for average and power. He has an advanced approach at the plate, focusing on driving balls from gap to gap while rarely chasing pitches out of the strike zone. With his bat speed and the strength in his 6-foot-3 frame, he could provide 20 or more homers per year once he starts driving the ball in the air more regularly. Scouts compare Clifford to Seth Beer with more athleticism, but unlike Beer he has a realistic chance to play the outfield. Though he has fringy speed and his reads and routes must improve, he's committed to working on his quickness and defense. He could stay in right field with solid arm strength and could at least be an average defender at first base, where he has played with Team USA."

 

The Astros also drafted another lefty bat outfielder in the 18th round, Isaiah Jackson. His older brother is in the Dodgers organization. Here's the MLB.com info.

Spoiler

"Cienega High School has had one player eventually make it to the big leagues in Dodgers right-hander Andre Jackson, who was drafted as a prepster but didn’t enter pro ball until after college. Now it’s his younger brother Isaiah’s turn, though he’s making noise as a power-hitting outfielder, not a pitcher. Any team interested in Jackson will be betting on his offensive upside and projection. He has tremendous raw power from the left side of the plate, with more than enough bat speed to dream that he’ll get to that power eventually at the next level, even if his approach is a little raw. He’s athletic for his size at 6-foot-3 and is an average runner. As he fills out, he almost certainly will belong in an outfield corner, with the potential to have an average-or-better arm that would work in right field and the offensive profile to boot. He’s young for the class -- he turned 18 in May -- which will look good in some team’s models. A team interested in signing him away from his Arizona State commitment might have to be patient on the development end, but the end result could be an athletic, run-producing corner outfielder."

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19145

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How does this work post round 10 now- they have changed it around a lot?  Once upon a time those guys could sign for whatever and weren't part of your slot.  Then if I recall correctly they weren't part of the slot but you couldn't give them more than a certain amount... How does it sit now?

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rvm96

rvm96 1643

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How does this work post round 10 now- they have changed it around a lot?  Once upon a time those guys could sign for whatever and weren't part of your slot.  Then if I recall correctly they weren't part of the slot but you couldn't give them more than a certain amount... How does it sit now?

The pool of money is front the first 10 picks. 11-20 slots are $125k this year and next year $150k. If you sign them for over $125k it comes from your 10 round pool. If you don't sign them you don't lose any pool money.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19145

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LMJ is about 2 weeks behind what an ideal schedule would be. Would have loved to see him pitch his first game in the majors before the August 3rd trade deadline, but based upon this schedule I’m guessing he’s due to get called up mid to late August. 
With no setbacks he should be at about 90 pitches by August 15 if my maths are right. 

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