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2022 Houston Astros Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Txslnghrns
Txslnghrns

Fuk Houston.

We’reTexas
We’reTexas
gurt
gurt

This postseason has become more sentimental for me and my wife's family.  My father in law is the biggest Astros fan I know.  He watches every game without fail, even DVRing them if he can't watch liv

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IDIOTsavant

IDIOTsavant 8,483

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9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

Essentially, it’s the value you provide (based on an average cost of WAR usually) minus the salary you actually command. Not sure what the current value of WAR is though.

 

*** According to this article 1 WAR was worth $8.5M on the free agent market in 2022.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/

Edited by IDIOTsavant
Found WAR value
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LCHorn

LCHorn 2,620

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6 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

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runthebone

runthebone 7,982

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10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

I agree, it will probably be Soto straight up.  If we want the Nats prospects, we'll have to take Corbin, too.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,070

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57 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

War is worth 10 million (thereabouts) on the open markets so if you’d have to pay 20 million for 2 War and you are instead paying the guy $1,000,000 for 2 War then he’s giving you 19 million surplus value. So, when you are lining up a trade you swap surplus values. 
Think of it like nfl draft chart. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,070

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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

You know he’s a 2 WAR guy making $500k right?  My surplus value isn’t far off. 

24 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

FWIW, baseball trade values rates his value more highly than any prospect in the org except Brown.

Thanks. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,070

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Chad has 3.0 career War in 1.5 years, playing less than everyday. That’s a guy you would expect to be worth 2 WAR getting 500 PA’s, with maybe a bit more upside there. 
I don’t fully buy surplus WAR for surplus WAR so I downgraded it from a top 50 prospect to top 100 prospect. You also might expect to get a 45 value guy and a 40 value guy which should be more than the going rate for Bell. The .5 years of control combined with $4,000,000 still owed (more or less) makes him just not hugely valuable. 
now- if you are converting present day WAR to future war you have to discount that future value so it doesn’t line up totally and completely apples to apples thus where I’m getting the value at Chas being higher than is often thought on this thread. 
put another way- we seriously downgrade the value of an average regular because our team is fucking awesome and average regulars don’t get a lot of time in our lineup. But for lots of teams the average regular that is paid almost nothing fills a real hole. Think like Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orioles when they get a little further along, teams like that. That’s how you get Maton and Diaz for a guy like Straw, who we were happy enough to move on from. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,070

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38 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Not top 100 prospects, for the record…

Maybe not. But I said 1 top 100 or a 45 and a 40 value prospect and I think you could call Maton and Diaz that.  That guy went to the futures game for us. That’s not nothing. And Maton, as much as I hate him, has real, actual value in baseball. 

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Amos Moses

Amos Moses 795

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Maton regressed after what was likely an aberration of solid pitching last post season. I don’t care to watch any more to see if he can improve. Let another team try to unlock that potential. Time for a new whipping boy.

I’d hate to see Chas go but he’s extra groceries at this point. For a proven lefty pen guy and a prospect he should be easy to wish well somewhere else.

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formermav43

formermav43 4,606

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2 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I know Whitley isn’t the prospect he once was, but it seems odd that we would end up trading him for a rental. I also don’t see us trading Yuli:
 

Gurriel makes 8 million , is in the final year of his deal, and Houston is $30+ million under the tax threshold. That’s just pure nonsense, even before you get to his standing in the clubhouse.

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perfectchaos007

perfectchaos007 6,642

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If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

ehh. they usually have late hours but much better options during the day

If there's a 2am option better than Chachos I want to know 

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rvm96

rvm96 1,643

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3 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

If there's a 2am option better than Chachos I want to know 

You have to think about it??

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,070

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3 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

They sort of got lucky. They offered him like 85M Didn’t they?  75M?  It was a lot. He turned it down bc he’s a douche. 

Just now, WBT said:

8 ERA guy is shutting us down

It is the way. 

What’s that magical streaming site y’all swear by? I’m in the RV with no satellite. 

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