2022 Houston Astros Thread

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

3 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Not sure this thread can handle another year of Machete 

He’s actually been good the last 2 months. After having maybe one of the worst 2 month stretches to start a season maybe ever?  
I’d love to see him as the wise veteran presence showing guys the ropes and playing 40 games next year. Lee doesn’t look like the answer to supplant him. Vazquez doesn’t feel like a long term guy (his choice). They don’t seem to like Diaz at catcher, but if he could handle the defense, damn, that’d be an intriguing guy. 
He ok, I guess. 

[Gourmand 7774]

Off days are so much better following a win.

I missed the game after the fourth inning or so, might watch the replay of the last two or three innings just to feel this thread yesterday.

[Storm the Field 5294]

Should be able to take at least 2/3 against the Twins this week. JV vs. TBD and Framber vs. Bundy (4.6 ERA) to start, followed by Garcia vs. Archer (4.02 ERA).

[tx 3 putt 76975]

2 hours ago, Scraps said:

Not sure this thread can handle another year of Machete 

[wood 11226]

How can you not be romantic about baseball?

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by wood

[tx 3 putt 76975]

You know, I fully expect the Yankees to shit can boone, I wonder if the Astros have a hand shake dell in place for espada ?

He’s going to be a hot property very soon. Also, maybe he wants to avoid that train wreck of a clubhouse in ny 

[tx 3 putt 76975]

A’s fans having a grand old time ….

 

 

[wood 11226]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

A’s fans having a grand old time ….

 

 

Better'n watching the A's.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Interesting to see this in light of the game on Saturday:

 

[Guadaloopy 10973]

42 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Interesting to see this in light of the game on Saturday:

 

That’s closer than I thought it would be.  Still a significant edge for the shift over 162 games.  
 

There are a lot of players who have stubbornly refused to adjust to the shift.  This ratio shows that it wouldn’t take a ton of effort for hitters to nullify the impact of the shift on batting average.   But the ratio doesn’t really tell us anything about how hitting against the shift would impact slugging percentage.  

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

42 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

That’s closer than I thought it would be.  Still a significant edge for the shift over 162 games.  
 

There are a lot of players who have stubbornly refused to adjust to the shift.  This ratio shows that it wouldn’t take a ton of effort for hitters to nullify the impact of the shift on batting average.   But the ratio doesn’t really tell us anything about how hitting against the shift would impact slugging percentage.  

The closer-than-you’d-expect ratio kind of supports the refusal to adjust their approach to try to beat the shift, right? The closer it is to 1:1 the more you should just sort of say “fuck it, I’m just gonna do what I do.”

[Guadaloopy 10973]

17 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

The closer-than-you’d-expect ratio kind of supports the refusal to adjust their approach to try to beat the shift, right? The closer it is to 1:1 the more you should just sort of say “fuck it, I’m just gonna do what I do.”

Yep.  It’s a mind fuck, for sure.  

[TonyTexas 10515]

Y’all’s focus should flip to how no shift will affect the game and players because it’s most likely gone after this season. Expect a good run of lefty batting champions. Yordan and Ted are going to feast. 

[henrygandorf 29191]

 

[UTexasFight 9454]

Any word on when /if there will be sign up for postseason ticket lottery?

thought they usually opened that up late July/early august but found last year’s email and it started 8/18 so should be right around now.

Mostly just making sure I didn’t miss an email in junk mail or something.

[wood 11226]

1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

Any word on when /if there will be sign up for postseason ticket lottery?

thought they usually opened that up late July/early august but found last year’s email and it started 8/18 so should be right around now.

Mostly just making sure I didn’t miss an email in junk mail or something.

Is that for the general public, or just season ticket holders?

[tx 3 putt 76975]

some 2023 talk, lot of playoff talk. 

https://sportstalk790.iheart.com/featured/sean-salisbury/content/2022-08-22-michael-connor-discusses-the-weekend-post-season-plan-even-next-season/

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

No surprise that JV will likely opt out given how he's pitched this season. I'd love to resign him, but, given our depth at SP and Brown waiting in the wings, I am not sure the FO will be willing to engage in a bidding war for him that will likely push his AAV over $40m.

LMJ (if healthy) and Framber are locks for the rotation. Javier has earned a spot. Urquidy has too if he continues to pitch like he has since June. Garcia is the only one who I could see moving on from, but even he is a better than average 5th starter. Add Brown to the mix, and tying up $40m+ in JV may not be something Click/Crane are willing to do. 

[kevwun 15790]

The one ace in hole is that Crane really like JV and seems to always do what needs to be done to keep him in Houston.  He's done it twice now when no one expected him to.

Edited August 23, 2022 by kevwun

[TonyTexas 10515]

I think Javier is underrated and under appreciated. He’s pitched really well. His record doesn’t match his stats because of lack of run support. 

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Tucker is the next big name up for an extension, and that doesn't become an issue until 2026. We need to address 1B and at least one OF position this offseason. Bregman gets a big pay raise in 2023 as well. Assuming we don't resign Yuli, Abreu, Mancini, or Bell could all be targets to take over at 1B. Benintendi, Kiermaier, or Peralta could be targets for OF. I think we could offer JV up to 3/130-140 without compromising our ability to address our immediate needs and extend Tucker.  

Edited August 23, 2022 by Seasick Sailor

[UTPhil2006 3807]

9 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Tucker is the next big name up for an extension, and that doesn't become an issue until 2026. We need to address 1B and at least one OF position this offseason. Bregman gets a big pay raise in 2023 as well. Assuming we don't resign Yuli, Abreu, Mancini, or Bell could all be targets to take over at 1B. Benintendi, Kiermaier, or Peralta could be targets for OF. I think we could offer JV up to 3/130-140 without compromising our ability to address our immediate needs and extend Tucker.  

Agree with this and the JV offer.

[UTexasFight 9454]

50 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Tucker is the next big name up for an extension, and that doesn't become an issue until 2026. We need to address 1B and at least one OF position this offseason. Bregman gets a big pay raise in 2023 as well. Assuming we don't resign Yuli, Abreu, Mancini, or Bell could all be targets to take over at 1B. Benintendi, Kiermaier, or Peralta could be targets for OF. I think we could offer JV up to 3/130-140 without compromising our ability to address our immediate needs and extend Tucker.  

It seems like yesterday the Altuve /Bregs extensions were done.

i can’t believe they only have 2 years after this left.

2020 really fucked things up 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

It seems like yesterday the Altuve /Bregs extensions were done.

i can’t believe they only have 2 years after this left.

2020 really fucked things up 

Yeah, It thought there were more years for both too. That certainly increases the opportunity cost of the third year of the JV contract. 

[UTexasFight 9454]

Sanchez starting for Minny tonight.

So the starters with the two most recent no-hitters for us (pre-2022) will be on the mound

[Guadaloopy 10973]

3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Sanchez starting for Minny tonight.

So the starters with the two most recent no-hitters for us (pre-2022) will be on the mound

Javier says “ahem.”

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Tucker is the next big name up for an extension, and that doesn't become an issue until 2026. We need to address 1B and at least one OF position this offseason. Bregman gets a big pay raise in 2023 as well. Assuming we don't resign Yuli, Abreu, Mancini, or Bell could all be targets to take over at 1B. Benintendi, Kiermaier, or Peralta could be targets for OF. I think we could offer JV up to 3/130-140 without compromising our ability to address our immediate needs and extend Tucker.  

Bregman is going to be an Interesting next contract guy for sure. 

[Guadaloopy 10973]

I finally realize why JV wasn’t around the team at all last year.  He was at Kamar-Taj studying the mystical arts, and he’s now using that magic to hold his elbow together.  As long as Mordo doesn’t come after him, we should be good.  

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Tucker is the next big name up for an extension, and that doesn't become an issue until 2026. We need to address 1B and at least one OF position this offseason. Bregman gets a big pay raise in 2023 as well. Assuming we don't resign Yuli, Abreu, Mancini, or Bell could all be targets to take over at 1B. Benintendi, Kiermaier, or Peralta could be targets for OF. I think we could offer JV up to 3/130-140 without compromising our ability to address our immediate needs and extend Tucker.  

I don’t want any part of the first two OFers. Chas is fine. Peralta would be a yes for me otherwise cheep it out and get by with some combination of Of what we have and make a move at the deadline if you need to. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

  

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Bregman is going to be an Interesting next contract guy for sure. 

He'll be 30 and coming off a season in which he will earn $28m when his contract expires. Given our history, I think he's gone.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t want any part of the first two OFers. Chaz is fine. Peralta would be a yes for me otherwise cheep it out and get by with some combination of Of what we have and make a move at the deadline if you need to. 

Yeah, the upcoming OF free agent market, with the exception of Judge, is pretty light. Ideally, Meyers or Leon will step up and be ready. Chas is fine. Tucker is great. Just need one guy to earn everyday starts while the other fills the 4th OF role. If Leon needs more seasoning, Dubon can fill in until he's ready. 

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

The one ace in hole is that Crane really like JV and seems to always do what needs to be done to keep him in Houston.  He's done it twice now when no one expected him to.

Plus, JV will get the kind of deal that Crane is more interested in making - he doesn’t seem hesitant to spend a lot over a short time period. The annual salary doesn’t seem to bother him, it’s the long-term salary commitments that he typically avoids. I hope to see JV back, and I think there’s a decent chance we will.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 minute ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Yeah, the upcoming OF free agent market, with the exception of Judge, is pretty light. Ideally, Meyers or Leon will step up and be ready. Chas is fine. Tucker is great. Just need one guy to earn everyday starts while the other fills the 4th OF role. If Leon needs more seasoning, Dubon can fill in until he's ready. 

That's my take. Also, Alvarez can play a more than capable LF, so that factors in as well in piecing it together.

Now- if you want to trade Garcia and some prospects for a dude in CF I'm fully onboard with that.  One of the pitchers has to be moved in the offseason in my opinion, for a good piece under control.  Vasharo would be a great target for Garcia to me.  Also, helps at catcher.  

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Plus, JV will get the kind of deal that Crane is more interested in making - he doesn’t seem hesitant to spend a lot over a short time period. The annual salary doesn’t seem to bother him, it’s the long-term salary commitments that he typically avoids. I hope to see JV back, and I think there’s a decent chance we will.

I want him back obviously too, and I'm sort of figuring on that happening. 

 

If he didn't come back there is some interesting stuff on the table, if you don't spend the $40M on him, along with the 20M under the limit, and Brantley and Yuli and Castro moving on there are some serious upgrades you could make elsewhere.  

For Example- as a thought experiment- obviously not saying the Astros (or the players offered) would do any of these (and you can fill in your own guys you like better for sure)

FA - JV, Diaz, Brantley, Castro, Mancini, Vazquez, Montero, Maton (trade), Goodrum (DFA), Dusty

Promoted- Brown (SP), Whitley, Martinez, DIaz (C/1b/DH), Espada

IN- Correa (10/250- he plays 3rd Bregman plays first), Contreras (5/75), 

Extend (all 3 years of arbitration guys) Framber (5/72), Javier (5/50), Urquidy (5/42), Tucker (6/150).

Results:  LMJ/Framber/Javier/Urquidy/Brown/Garcia (50 million)

Bullpen- Presley, Abreu, Neris, Stanek, Martinez, Whitley, Mush (30 million)

Altuve/Yordan/Bregman/Tucker/Correa/Contreras/Diaz/Pena/Chas- (135 million)

Bench- Maldonado/Dubon/Meyers/Leon- (7 million)

$222 million dollar payroll (plus the FICA taxes) has you right up on the threshold or barely over but not costing draft picks.  You've got a core through 2027 or Alvarez/Tucker/Pena/Brown/Javier/Framer/Urquidy/Correa/Contreras.  You would think you could extend Altuve/Bregman/LMJ for the same amount of combined money they currently make as Altuve will likely go down in value next contract (old- 34) and the other guys will be on the wrong side of 30 so who knows.  

Yeah- plan A would be to bring back JV- but if you aggressively used that money you could have a pretty damn special team for a long time without him.  

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

IN- Correa (10/250- he plays 3rd Bregman plays first), Contreras (5/75), 

Bro, don’t do this to yourself again.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Bro, don’t do this to yourself again.

A girl can dream.  I know it's not likely happening- that's why I said thought experiment.  If you prefer to be boring and do something like Josh Bell for 4/80 be my guest.  My move would be better (if Correa was agreeable), but Bell move might actually happen.  I think the 10/250 might be trending down to Correa's number.  He turned down 10/275 last year- and then made $35 million this year- so a 10/250 would still represent success with his pillow contract.  That one will be interesting to see play out.  Abreu on a 4/60 or something like that would be interesting.  He seems to love the White Sox though so I sort of don't see him moving on. 

The overarching point is that we actually have a shitload of money to spend in the offseason if we want to, and not a ton of holes to spend it on (Longterm C, 1B, 1 OF position, luxury market of starting pitching).  You don't even need to do any of those things- as I'm pretty confident that the Astros could let everyone walk, sign nobody, make no moves in the offseason, make no trades and still come back and win 89-102 games and make the playoffs next year- but that doesn't sound like fun. 

It's amazing what the past regime built.  Incredible.  I can't believe he is still unemployed after that record of success.  Will be interesting if Click does anything bold at all with the roster.  I was fine with the deadline this year- got rid of his mistake in Odo for someone's cheaper mistake and got 2 solid bats that I hope someday someone will make Dusty play in the playoffs, without giving up too much- but this offseason is a huge opportunity as he should have $80M or so to spend and a really solid baseline roster, with a bunch of dudes in AAA that look like they could do a decent job at providing average production for cheap, and a guy or 3 that could be stars (Brown, Leon, Whitley- in that order) someday.  

I love this team. 

[kevwun 15790]

If this is the trust tree and we're being honest, I have concerns about Pena at short longterm.  I don't think he's ever going to be an average shortstop defensively.  His arm is a real problem and he doesn't have the best hands.  His best position in a good defensive infield is 2nd base.

Edited August 23, 2022 by kevwun

[tx 3 putt 76975]

27 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Bro, don’t do this to yourself again.

Was it over when the Germans bomber Pearl Harbor ??

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If this is the trust tree and we're being honest, I have concerns about Pena at short longterm.  I don't think he's ever going to be an average shortstop defensively.  His arm is a real problem and he doesn't have the best hands.  His best position in a good defensive infield is 2nd base.

His metrics are really good.  I get where you are coming from here though..

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

16 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If this is the trust tree and we're being honest, I have concerns about Pena at short longterm.  I don't think he's ever going to be an average shortstop defensively.  His arm is a real problem and he doesn't have the best hands.  His best position in a good defensive infield is 2nd base.

Yeah, I know defensive metrics are imperfect, but he is currently 7th in MLB in defensive WAR per B-R and 19th in the FG defensive rankings (across all positions, not just SS).

Edited August 23, 2022 by Hank Chinaski

[kevwun 15790]

That is the problem with defensive metrics.  I don't see how you can watch him play and say he's a good shortstop, regardless of what the numbers say.  There are 2 guys on the Astros in Diaz and Dubon who are both clearly better at short and Bregman would give him a run for his money.

Edited August 23, 2022 by kevwun

[tx 3 putt 76975]

17 minutes ago, kevwun said:

If this is the trust tree and we're being honest, I have concerns about Pena at short longterm.  I don't think he's ever going to be an average shortstop defensively.  His arm is a real problem and he doesn't have the best hands.  His best position in a good defensive infield is 2nd base.

he needs to improve year two, glove and arm 

Edited August 23, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[kevwun 15790]

His hands will get better from repetition and getting used to the big leagues, but that arm is always going to be an issue.  It also takes him too long to set and throw.

[tx 3 putt 76975]

[texashorne 1178]

Pena still has a higher WAR than Correa and its Aug 23rd. I'm not saying Pena is better, but the difference in performance isn't worth that money. 

 

[kevwun 15790]

Yeah, I'm not arguing about that.  I'm talking about playing a good shortstop everyday for the next however many years.  I don't think Pena is ever going to be a good defensive shortstop.  That is a problem when a big part of your winning formula is good pitching and defense.

Edited August 23, 2022 by kevwun

[tx 3 putt 76975]

Correa over played his hand and changing agents in the middle of free agency was just dumb 

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

14 minutes ago, kevwun said:

That is the problem with defensive metrics.  I don't see how you can watch him play and say he's a good shortstop, regardless of what the numbers say.  There are 2 guys on the Astros in Diaz and Dubon who are both clearly better at short and Bregman would give him a run for his money.

We saw Correa win the platinum glove last year.  That, to me, looked like it was legit and passed the eye test (cannon for an arm that made plays on relays, deep in the hole, very low errors etc).  Somehow, Pena is smoking Correa this year in defensive metrics with a bunch of errors plus lack of big time arm.  I doesn't pass eye test at all. I've given up on believing my eyes and trust the numbers more- but who the hell knows.

[Hank Chinaski 6315]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

 I don't think Pena is ever going to be a good defensive shortstop.  

You’d have to think that the various defensive metrics are deeply flawed and failing to pick up on something critical to make this claim, because, as stated, he is objectively a good defensive SS right now. What do you think they aren’t accounting for?

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

8 minutes ago, texashorne said:

Pena still has a higher WAR than Correa and its Aug 23rd. I'm not saying Pena is better, but the difference in performance isn't worth that money. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Yeah, I'm not arguing about that.  I'm talking about playing a good shortstop everyday for the next however many years.  I don't think Pena is ever going to be a good defensive shortstop.  That is a problem when a big part of your winning formula is good pitching and defense.

Which is where it gets really weird b/c they have pretty close to the same number of plate appearances and Correa's OPS is 70 or 80 points higher. So the difference in War is all baserunning and defense and Pena doesn't swipe a ton of bags and we've already talked about defense. It doesn't make any sense to me how those numbers get to where they are.  I'm not saying they are wrong, just I don't understand.  

At any rate, as much as I love Carlos he's not worth $34M more during the regular season, but it would be really nice if Pena learned how to hit or lay off a slider between here and there or he's going to get chewed up and spit out in the playoffs.  Carlos was an 850 OPS guy in the playoffs so that would be a big fucking problem unless Bregman, Tucker, Altuve and Alvarez want to go ahead and get hot and carry the team, while Mancini, and catcher chip in and Yuli and Chas and Diaz want to come back from the dead.  But, this lineup feels awful shallow and we are really going to need our big dogs to eat.  Or have much better lineup making decisions, construction, and some production from places it doesn't look trustworthy from right now.