2022 Houston Astros Thread

[rvm96 1,643]

6 minutes ago, wood said:

WTF? So I guess you are regarded. You'd have to be to argue against the bunt in that situation. Go fuck yourself.

Nope, it's just insane to argue for a result over and over that will not happen.

[Focht Up 631]

14 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Go away newbie. We don’t need any more idiots in this thread. That’s already covered. 

What the fuck

[TonyTexas 10,478]

1 minute ago, Focht Up said:

What the fuck

Suggesting to release a top ten closer outright because he had a bad night is insane. 

[wood 11,103]

1 minute ago, rvm96 said:

Nope, it's just insane to argue for a result over and over that will not happen.

Do you understand that I'm under no illusions that my 'argument' is going to change any play call on the field? Nah. That's way over your head, because you're the idiot whose response to anyone making an observation about what should happen is 'go watch college baseball'.  

It's like you and Helobious were seperated at birth.

[rvm96 1,643]

3 minutes ago, wood said:

Do you understand that I'm under no illusions that my 'argument' is going to change any play call on the field? Nah. That's way over your head, because you're the idiot whose response to anyone making an observation about what should happen is 'go watch college baseball'.  

It's like you and Helobious were seperated at birth.

[wood 11,103]

Just now, rvm96 said:

Great comeback, dumbass. You've still offered nothing to support your 'argument'. You're basically saying that I'm right, but that I shouldn't post that opinion. And then you call me the crazy one. 

[rvm96 1,643]

Just now, wood said:

Great comeback, dumbass. You've still offered nothing to support your 'argument'. You're basically saying that I'm right, but that I shouldn't post that opinion. And then you call me the crazy one. 

Please tell me where I said that you're right. I just said that what you're asking for won't happen.

[wood 11,103]

1 minute ago, rvm96 said:

Please tell me where I said that you're right. I just said that what you're asking for won't happen.

OK, then tell me how I'm wrong, numbnuts. And like I said before - and you ignored - I'm just putting my opinion out there like every other mfer in this thread, not trying to change an outcome that I have zero control over. But for some reason you have a problem with me saying anything, because MLB. 

[Guadaloopy 10,903]

34 minutes ago, wood said:

... aannnd that's why you bunt 2 runners over late in a game with a 3 run lead.

I promise you that the odds and the numbers say not to bunt in that situation.   Anything else is “going with your gut” and plays AGAINST the numbers.  Small ball is played at levels that don’t have the analytics to tell them that it actually fails more than it works.   It also works better at levels where the defense is worse.  So no, you are not right.  

[Rip76 4,909]

That was our game.

[wood 11,103]

4 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I promise you that the odds and the numbers say not to bunt in that situation.   Anything else is “going with your gut” and plays AGAINST the numbers.  Small ball is played at levels that don’t have the analytics to tell them that it actually fails more than it works.   It also works better at levels where the defense is worse.  So no, you are not right.  

OK, cool. I disagree, but thank you for articulating a defensible, rational response, unlike Helobious's sock.

Edited June 24, 2022 by wood

[64coldasfire 22]

I feel like I just witnessed a game 7 loss. 

[Hank Chinaski 6,310]

4 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I promise you that the odds and the numbers say not to bunt in that situation.   Anything else is “going with your gut” and plays AGAINST the numbers.  Small ball is played at levels that don’t have the analytics to tell them that it actually fails more than it works.   It also works better at levels where the defense is worse.  So no, you are not right.  

Yeah it’s based on probabilities, and the probabilities of scoring are reduced tremendously when you add outs (even when advancing runners). Doesn’t mean it is never the right call, but there’s a reason it is almost never done in MLB anymore. 

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

5 minutes ago, 64coldasfire said:

I feel like I just witnessed a game 7 loss. 

 
1 out of 162 

[rvm96 1,643]

14 minutes ago, wood said:

OK, then tell me how I'm wrong, numbnuts. And like I said before - and you ignored - I'm just putting my opinion out there like every other mfer in this thread, not trying to change an outcome that I have zero control over. But for some reason you have a problem with me saying anything, because MLB. 

If you want Siri and Machete to both bunt and they both fail the expected runs that inning go down by 1.008 runs. Even if Siri gets it down the expected run rate goes down by .061 runs. This data is from a a few years ago, but whatever 

Edited June 24, 2022 by rvm96

[Hank Chinaski 6,310]

5 minutes ago, 64coldasfire said:

I feel like I just witnessed a game 7 loss. 

Meh. It’s June and the Astros have a 9.5 game lead in their division. Bregman’s starting to hit. Alvarez is dominant. They had a bad inning in the middle of the season. 

[Limp Brisket 546]

I called the entire implosion.  That’s what’s frustrating.

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

several surly posters calling into the post game show lulz

 

[wood 11,103]

9 minutes ago, rvm96 said:

If you want Siri and Machete to both bunt and they both fail the expected runs that inning go down by 1.008 runs. Even if Siri gets it down the expected run rate goes down by .061 runs. This data is from a a few years ago, but whatever 

Finally, an actual argument. You could have avoided all that, but instead you just kept telling me to go watch college baseball because I don't agree with you. BTW, I didn't say bunt both of them. 

[Storm the Field 5,270]

What a shitty loss. Worst so far through 70 games. 

Pressly has some weird form of the yips where he  seems to have to allow the tying run to come to bat. With a 2 or 3 run lead, he's almost certain to allow the leadoff batter to reach. It usually ends up barely working out for us, but the goddamn Yankees already have 20+ come-from-behind wins. They ain't the team to pull that shit on.

Through 24 outs, I was impressed as hell with the way we were playing. Looked like a team on a fucking mission. 

On par with the 9th inning debacle is us outhitting them 11-2 though 8 1/2 but not scoring any runs except on the 2 dingers. 6-9 spots in the order were 1-15 with the only hit coming with no one on base (Yuli leadoff double, never moved past 2nd). 

 

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

pressley's slider has a 50% whiff rate (per post game show). he just wasn't anywhere close today. 

also, first time he's thrown back to back days. we'll need him back to back in the fall 

[Gut Wagon 8,052]

We all know it's only one loss. Had we held on, it just as obviously would have been only one win. But...in a season in which the Yankees have thus far seemed all but untouchable, and with that great a performance by a bunch of our guys prior to the collapse, it sure feels like more than a random June loss to the A's. The fact our closer tends to turn his appearances into white-knuckle carnival rides made this loss feel almost inevitable. It wasn't, of course, but that was the vibe I had as it transpired. Many of you know that exact feeling. 

Go get 'em tomorrow? Sure. Take a lead into the 9th? Hope so. If we do, who gets the ball? You tell me. 

[wood 11,103]

3 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

We all know it's only one loss. Had we held on, it just as obviously would have been only one win. But...in a season in which the Yankees have thus far seemed all but untouchable, and with that great a performance by a bunch of our guys prior to the collapse, it sure feels like more than a random June loss to the A's. The fact our closer tends to turn his appearances into white-knuckle carnival rides made this loss feel almost inevitable. It wasn't, of course, but that was the vibe I had as it transpired. Many of you know that exact feeling. 

Go get 'em tomorrow? Sure. Take a lead into the 9th? Hope so. If we do, who gets the ball? You tell me. 

How about Neris or Montero? Maybe not Montero tomorrow tho.

Edited June 24, 2022 by wood

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

damn, im ready for tomorrow's game

[rvm96 1,643]

2 hours ago, wood said:

Finally, an actual argument. You could have avoided all that, but instead you just kept telling me to go watch college baseball because I don't agree with you. BTW, I didn't say bunt both of them. 

You didn't specify in your post earlier so I just did it with both scenarios. I will still tell you to go watch college baseball also.

1 hour ago, wood said:

How about Neris or Montero? Maybe not Montero tomorrow tho.

Neris was tied for the second most blown saves in the majors last year. The only person ahead of them was a closer for the Rockies.

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

someone else will be closing out tomorrow's W, Pressley won't go 3 days in a row 

[WBT 20,397]

8 hours ago, rvm96 said:

If you want Siri and Machete to both bunt and they both fail the expected runs that inning go down by 1.008 runs. Even if Siri gets it down the expected run rate goes down by .061 runs. This data is from a a few years ago, but whatever 

Assuming mlb average outcomes when they swing away.  That's the problem with relying solely on run expectancy tables.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,118]

Had some Ken Giles flashbacks yesterday and not in the good way.

Oh well, go get 'em today.

[WBT 20,397]

7 hours ago, wood said:

How about Neris or Montero? Maybe not Montero tomorrow tho.

We have an excellent bullpen - 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP.  We had been 39-0 when leading after 8 this year.  As long as Pressly, Neris, Montero, and Stanek keep getting the vast majority of the high leverage innings in whatever order we'll be fine.  Abreu is moving into that category also.

[Slacks 6,791]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

We have an excellent bullpen - 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP.  We had been 39-0 when leading after 8 this year.  As long as Pressly, Neris, Montero, and Stanek keep getting the vast majority of the high leverage innings in whatever order we'll be fine.  Abreu is moving into that category also.

Yeah... This one only feels bad because it hadn't happened all season, then it happened against the Yankees.  If this were against the Royals, nobody would give a shit... (Ok, we'd bitch about something, but we do that for wins, off days, Christmas, etc.)

[Starfleet Command 441]

I cannot believe they signed Pressly to that deal when they could have simply waited to the off-season.  What is it about relievers that makes Click retarded.

[Starfleet Command 441]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

We have an excellent bullpen - 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP.  We had been 39-0 when leading after 8 this year.  As long as Pressly, Neris, Montero, and Stanek keep getting the vast majority of the high leverage innings in whatever order we'll be fine.  Abreu is moving into that category also.

The bullpen is fine.  Pressly has played like shit this season and is owed a boat load of money starting next year!

[Wulaw Horn 18,963]

So, I leave you people alone for the last 60 minutes of that game and that’s what happens?

at least everyone handled the loss with the equanimity I expect from an internet message board full of fanatics. 
 

this game was good for us. Seriously. It is another data point for management that we shouldn’t count on beating these guys with 5 bats, that we need to go 8 or so deep. Peña hopefully is a dude. Jake hopefully is a dude. Hopefully we get another dude at 1B or catcher. The 4 auto out thing was pretty bad   The top of our lineup was rampaging and then it all turned to shit. 
 

as far as Pressley goes… he’s fine. He’s perfectly acceptable closer. He’s not great. He’s not amazing but he’s fine. 
 

we are now 39-1 protecting a lead going into the 9th. That is perfectly acceptable.  This team is on pace to win 102 games. I predicted 98 and cruising to the division title on page 1, so, this season is going exactly how I expected it to in the main, with a little better pitching and a little worse hitting than I expected. 
 

there’s tons more good news than bad news. Peña being really good was the most important part of the year. That would have been by far the toughest thing- to replace a star at SS and we have a reasonable facsimile. Getting a 1B bat is cheap and easy. We’ve already got all the hard stuff worked out. 
 

[Starfleet Command 441]

I've been a Pressly fan up until this season where he clearly has not been very good.  I worry that his fastball will be the end of him as the pitch sucks but he doesn't have enough other quality offerings to keep fastball usage low.

[Scraps 13,531]

Been wanting Montero to close all year and would still rather him close, but that ain't gonna happen 

 

[Gut Wagon 8,052]

To me, of all these guys Abreu seems to have the most potential to one day slide to the 9th. Pressley wasn't our closer when he arrived from the Twins, but sort of by default that's what he evolved into. I had more faith in him back then than now.

To me, it isn't just about overall analytics with any player, but closers in particular. Slamming the door against Baltimore in MMP isn't the same as doing it against the Yankees in their park. Had NY fully earned that one last night, I'd be closer to tipping my cap to them. As is, I can't help but blame Pressley for making them do it from the very start of the rally. I trust he feels exactly the same way and will be much better next time out. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,963]

24 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

To me, of all these guys Abreu seems to have the most potential to one day slide to the 9th. Pressley wasn't our closer when he arrived from the Twins, but sort of by default that's what he evolved into. I had more faith in him back then than now.

To me, it isn't just about overall analytics with any player, but closers in particular. Slamming the door against Baltimore in MMP isn't the same as doing it against the Yankees in their park. Had NY fully earned that one last night, I'd be closer to tipping my cap to them. As is, I can't help but blame Pressley for making them do it from the very start of the rally. I trust he feels exactly the same way and will be much better next time out. 

Out of rep, but yeah, all of this. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

Can’t walk people. It’s the unforced error that you just can’t have

[Chuckie Finster 22,583]

27 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

To me, of all these guys Abreu seems to have the most potential to one day slide to the 9th. Pressley wasn't our closer when he arrived from the Twins, but sort of by default that's what he evolved into. I had more faith in him back then than now.

To me, it isn't just about overall analytics with any player, but closers in particular. Slamming the door against Baltimore in MMP isn't the same as doing it against the Yankees in their park. Had NY fully earned that one last night, I'd be closer to tipping my cap to them. As is, I can't help but blame Pressley for making them do it from the very start of the rally. I trust he feels exactly the same way and will be much better next time out. 

He looked off from his very first pitch... it seemed like he was falling off the mound on his first few tosses and never really recovered.  It was a very weird and uninspiring outing from Pressly.

[UTPhil2006 3,790]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

He looked off from his very first pitch... it seemed like he was falling off the mound on his first few tosses and never really recovered.  It was a very weird and uninspiring outing from Pressly.

Prob shouldnt have been out there back to back games.  Now we know.  Dusty can share some of the blame.

[huge 3,788]

10 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

He looked off from his very first pitch... it seemed like he was falling off the mound on his first few tosses and never really recovered.  It was a very weird and uninspiring outing from Pressly.

Which came one day after he looked like his old self and people were missing by a foot.  Frustrating.

Thankfully the Astros aren't the type of team to let that loss affect today.

[Scraps 13,531]

14 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Can’t walk people. It’s the unforced error that you just can’t have

yep.  This is why when I look at a closer I want their WHIP to be around 1.00 or lower.  Montero is there.  Stanek is there.  Pressly and Abreu are not.  Pressly is actually fucking horrible at 1.36 which out of the top 20 saves leaders so far this season that ranks him only ahead of Kimbrel (who has sucked) and Melancon (who has really fucking sucked) 

10 of the 20 are below 1.00 WHIP 

He is ranked the same with BA against as well.  18th out of 20 ahead of the same two shitheads.  

[Scraps 13,531]

Daniel Bard is the get.  He is on a shitty team, he has been dominant in Colorado of all places, and he is a FA after the season.  

[wood 11,103]

3 hours ago, WBT said:

We have an excellent bullpen - 1st in ERA, 2nd in FIP.  We had been 39-0 when leading after 8 this year.  As long as Pressly, Neris, Montero, and Stanek keep getting the vast majority of the high leverage innings in whatever order we'll be fine.  Abreu is moving into that category also.

Yeah I agree with all of that. I was just throwing them out there to close if needed because Pressley has been out there the last two games. Actually I think there are probably at least 3 or 4 guys in that pen who can close wheen needed.

[wood 11,103]

10 hours ago, rvm96 said:

You didn't specify in your post earlier so I just did it with both scenarios. I will still tell you to go watch college baseball also.

Neris was tied for the second most blown saves in the majors last year. The only person ahead of them was a closer for the Rockies.

I guess you just can't post without being an absolute dick. That's fine but you might as well get used to people around here coming back at you when you act like that for no reason. Fuck off with the college baseball bullshit. I've probably watched more MLB, college, and Astros baseball than you and your boyfriend combined (nttawwt). I watch every Astros game and I'll probably post in this thread more now, since it bothers you so much. And I'm not talking about throwing Neris out there as the new closer. My response was to a question about today, not the rest of the season,and I wasn't talking to you - but of course you couldn't resist twisting it. I could see using him as a spot closer with favorable matchups when needed due to workloads, etc.

Edited June 24, 2022 by wood

[kevwun 15,595]

13 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Yeah it’s based on probabilities, and the probabilities of scoring are reduced tremendously when you add outs (even when advancing runners). Doesn’t mean it is never the right call, but there’s a reason it is almost never done in MLB anymore. 

Machete is slow, hits around .200 and is always a threat to gidp.  In his case it's not so much advancing the runner, it's avoiding the gidp and giving the rbi chance to Altuve instead.  I think in his case it makes sense.

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

yep.  This is why when I look at a closer I want their WHIP to be around 1.00 or lower.  Montero is there.  Stanek is there.  Pressly and Abreu are not.  Pressly is actually fucking horrible at 1.36 which out of the top 20 saves leaders so far this season that ranks him only ahead of Kimbrel (who has sucked) and Melancon (who has really fucking sucked) 

10 of the 20 are below 1.00 WHIP 

He is ranked the same with BA against as well.  18th out of 20 ahead of the same two shitheads.  

he needs to stop walking people 

[The Dog 43,771]

 

[wood 11,103]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Wow. Some pretty good responses there...

Edited June 24, 2022 by wood

[tx 3 putt 76,159]

That Rizzo At bat last night was the whole turning point of the game.