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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He’s got a ton of surplus value (like 15 million or so) 

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

Edited by TonyTexas
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

Essentially, it’s the value you provide (based on an average cost of WAR usually) minus the salary you actually command. Not sure what the current value of WAR is though.

 

*** According to this article 1 WAR was worth $8.5M on the free agent market in 2022.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/

Edited by IDIOTsavant
Found WAR value
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Posted
6 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

Posted
10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

I agree, it will probably be Soto straight up.  If we want the Nats prospects, we'll have to take Corbin, too.

Posted
35 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

FWIW, baseball trade values rates his value more highly than any prospect in the org except Brown.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve seen you use the term surplus value several times. What is that and how is it determined?

War is worth 10 million (thereabouts) on the open markets so if you’d have to pay 20 million for 2 War and you are instead paying the guy $1,000,000 for 2 War then he’s giving you 19 million surplus value. So, when you are lining up a trade you swap surplus values. 
Think of it like nfl draft chart. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

@Wulaw Horn’s definition is “are they an Astro?  If so multiply $5m x years of control.”

 

I don’t think McCormick is worth a whole lot in prospects, personally.  

You know he’s a 2 WAR guy making $500k right?  My surplus value isn’t far off. 

24 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

FWIW, baseball trade values rates his value more highly than any prospect in the org except Brown.

Thanks. 

Posted

Chad has 3.0 career War in 1.5 years, playing less than everyday. That’s a guy you would expect to be worth 2 WAR getting 500 PA’s, with maybe a bit more upside there. 
I don’t fully buy surplus WAR for surplus WAR so I downgraded it from a top 50 prospect to top 100 prospect. You also might expect to get a 45 value guy and a 40 value guy which should be more than the going rate for Bell. The .5 years of control combined with $4,000,000 still owed (more or less) makes him just not hugely valuable. 
now- if you are converting present day WAR to future war you have to discount that future value so it doesn’t line up totally and completely apples to apples thus where I’m getting the value at Chas being higher than is often thought on this thread. 
put another way- we seriously downgrade the value of an average regular because our team is fucking awesome and average regulars don’t get a lot of time in our lineup. But for lots of teams the average regular that is paid almost nothing fills a real hole. Think like Cleveland, Milwaukee, Orioles when they get a little further along, teams like that. That’s how you get Maton and Diaz for a guy like Straw, who we were happy enough to move on from. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s how you get Maton and Diaz for a guy like Straw, who we were happy enough to move on from. 

Not top 100 prospects, for the record…

Posted
6 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Shocking that Ben would put his bro's team #1 for sure haha.


he’s very much in the minority 

 

Astros social media is calling out other sites. It’s rather funny. One site had us 4th best

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Posted
1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Astros social media is calling out other sites. It’s rather funny. One site had us 4th best

the sites i looked at had nyy, us, lad, nym as top 4 in some order. we’re 9-2 vs that group. 

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Posted (edited)

If Maton can keep improving and Diaz turn into something, that’s going to be a hell of a trade 

dusty was very much a straw guy, clicks trade 

Edited by tx 3 putt
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Not top 100 prospects, for the record…

Maybe not. But I said 1 top 100 or a 45 and a 40 value prospect and I think you could call Maton and Diaz that.  That guy went to the futures game for us. That’s not nothing. And Maton, as much as I hate him, has real, actual value in baseball. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted

Maton regressed after what was likely an aberration of solid pitching last post season. I don’t care to watch any more to see if he can improve. Let another team try to unlock that potential. Time for a new whipping boy.

I’d hate to see Chas go but he’s extra groceries at this point. For a proven lefty pen guy and a prospect he should be easy to wish well somewhere else.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

I know Whitley isn’t the prospect he once was, but it seems odd that we would end up trading him for a rental. I also don’t see us trading Yuli:
 

Gurriel makes 8 million , is in the final year of his deal, and Houston is $30+ million under the tax threshold. That’s just pure nonsense, even before you get to his standing in the clubhouse.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

 

 

remember when we might sign 1-2 out of our top 10 or so picks?  pepperidge farms remembers.

Wait what about not signing picks?

Posted

Peña had to catch that because everyone else was afraid he'd run them over.

Odo looking good.  We should let him face the A's every time

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Posted

If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

ehh. they usually have late hours but much better options during the day

If there's a 2am option better than Chachos I want to know 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

If there's a 2am option better than Chachos I want to know 

You have to think about it??

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Posted
3 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

If I could trade Odorizzi for Keuchel straight up....I don't think I would.

My 2019 self would probably be mind blown.
Astros front office ended up making the best decision not giving Keuchel that money he wanted and using it on other pieces 

They sort of got lucky. They offered him like 85M Didn’t they?  75M?  It was a lot. He turned it down bc he’s a douche. 

Just now, WBT said:

8 ERA guy is shutting us down

It is the way. 

What’s that magical streaming site y’all swear by? I’m in the RV with no satellite. 

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