2022 Houston Astros Thread

[TonyTexas 10482]

37 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It would really hurt to lose JV.  I literally love him.  But if Brown is the real deal, then doesn't he become expendable at the high price?

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Scraps 13542]

There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.

[runthebone 7932]

49 minutes ago, Scraps said:

There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.
 

 

Pretty shitty:

[HtownHorn 14488]

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

An embarrassment of riches at SP. 

It would really hurt to lose JV.  I literally love him.  But if Brown is the real deal, then doesn't he become expendable at the high price?

What do you do with six quality starters?  One guy works from the pen? Six man rotation? Trade one of them? Good problem to have.

I think the Astros will move more towards a 6-man rotation next year. I think that will be the next pitching innovation that all teams start trying, like the opener was 3 years ago.

[UTexasFight 9380]

7 minutes ago, runthebone said:

 

Pretty shitty:

 

[ballrific 215]

On 9/1/2022 at 12:41 PM, henrygandorf said:

also you should be aware that any deviation from the normal 71-74 degree days and 62-65 degree nights send southern californians into a sudden and alarmed sense of confusion.

when it's this hot, or god forbid it rains, we collapse into thunderdome-style post-apocalyptic mayhem.  prepare to hear all about it from your uber driver or waiter, to random people on the street.  last time it rained, people basically sheltered in place.  drama queens, all of us.

the local news last night was like, "four people murdered near hancock park, but first, it's realy hot outside, right?"

I noticed this over the weekend, people falling out left and right, telling people to watch out for the heat wave, etc..  I told people I met it felt like a lovely spring in Houston or Austin with less humidity.  They thought I was joking.  It wasn't that bad but it was hot.

[CycleTex87 2954]

csb/ We were running a construction project some years ago in eastern Ohio near the river.  One day it was 93 deg., and a truck driver passed out due to the heat (no AC in the cab).  In our discussion with the construction company, we made the comment along the way that 93 didn't seem that hot, and the guy actually said "Yeah, but you don't have the humidity in Houston that we have".  We almost fell out of our chairs.

[Guadaloopy 10926]

2 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

An embarrassment of riches at SP. 

It would really hurt to lose JV.  I literally love him.  But if Brown is the real deal, then doesn't he become expendable at the high price?

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

1 minute ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

[formermav43 4599]

2 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It's been proven with Correa and Springer that our front office will let beloved players go who are the highest priced and older. I don't think they are going to keep Verlander.  Our remaining starters would still be one of the best in the league. I think they are going to be looking to pledge that money to extend guys and maybe find a LF, CF, C and/or 1B.

That’s not really accurate. What they won’t do is sign higher priced older guys for longterm deals. There’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t be willing to bring Verlander back for 2-3 seasons at a higher AAV. I mean, they just gave him $25 million (with an option year at the same price) when he hadn’t really pitched since 2019.

[formermav43 4599]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

FWIW, Valdez won’t hit free agency until 2026. He’ll be 32 and groundball pitchers (and he’s the most extreme one there is) don’t tend to age well at all. I doubt he’s an extension candidate.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

I’m sure Wulaw will give you a white paper research report but my initial reaction is “it depends” First off, Brown is not a JV replacement, regardless of how well he pitches ROS.  Secondly,  what does Click/Crane want to do with that $40M/yr. It looks like they’d be in decent shape for tax threshold either way. It would bear consideration if it was used to extend Tucker and at least 2 of the 4 musketeers (Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Garcia). And get a centerfielder. 

Look- this isn't a terrible plan, and it might even be a good plan and might work out for the best.  My initial thought would be these offers for extension if you have that money to throw around

Tucker- 6/135 (3 arb left)

Framber 5/72 (arb 2, 3 & 4 left)

Javier- 5/50 (3 arb left)

Urquidy 5/42 (3 arb left)

Garcia- 6/50 (1 year of minimum wage and 3 arb left)

If you could knock down 4 of those signings and pair that with a Mancini or Vasquez coming back then that's not a terrible use of that money), but

1 hour ago, Scraps said:

There is absolutely nobody I would waste significant free agent money on to play CF next season or the season after. They are all pretty shitty. Someone inside the organization is gonna need to get it together unless they can package Garcia or Urquidy with something to pull a CF who is not a FA.

Keeping JV is more important in my eyes.
 

Yeah- I'd just as soon spend it on JV. Unless you want to give that $40 to Judge, who probably won't take it unless you guarantee that number to him 7 more times beyond next years $40M

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

Just now, formermav43 said:

FWIW, Valdez won’t hit free agency until 2026. He’ll be 32 and groundball pitchers (and he’s the most extreme one there is) don’t tend to age well at all. I doubt he’s an extension candidate.

I said 5/72 b/c you at least are buying out his arb 2, 3 & 4 which could cost upwards of $50M.  I wouldn't mind a nice little $14.5 AAV for him.  That gives him some more guarantee.  But yeah- with 3 more Arb's left and getting toward being old he's not going to command some sort of mega deal or anything. 

[formermav43 4599]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I said 5/72 b/c you at least are buying out his arb 2, 3 & 4 which could cost upwards of $50M.  I wouldn't mind a nice little $14.5 AAV for him.  That gives him some more guarantee.  But yeah- with 3 more Arb's left and getting toward being old he's not going to command some sort of mega deal or anything. 

That’s not a bad deal based on the way he’s pitching today, but I’m not sure 33-34 year old Valdez is even going to be replacement level (see Keuchel, Dallas).

[LCHorn 2585]

17 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

I realize we’re all just playing amateur GM but I thought it was common knowledge that Verlander is held outside of the budget, i.e., owner’s prerogative.  I’m sure his salary slot has implications on the tax threshold but otherwise it shouldn’t be presumed it’s Verlander or plan B.  

[TonyTexas 10482]

13 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I realize we’re all just playing amateur GM

I actually would consider you more of a semi-pro GM if only you could rein in your emotions slightly. The time you spend thinking (and writing) about roster construction certainly elevate you above the rest of the peanut gallery. 

[UTexasFight 9380]

God bless this thread on off days….err Ranger days 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

7 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I actually would consider you more of a semi-pro GM if only you could rein in your emotions slightly. The time you spend thinking (and writing) about roster construction certainly elevate you above the rest of the peanut gallery. 

LC Horn lets his emotions get the best of him when writing about roster construction?  Wha?  Did I miss something?

[TonyTexas 10482]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

LC Horn lets his emotions get the best of him when writing about roster construction?  Wha?  Did I miss something?

For some reason, I thought that was your post but my post was about you. 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

49 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

For some reason, I thought that was your post but my post was about you. 

I really really like thinking about this kind of stuff. In a previous time I turned down a job as a GM with a prospects league team. If I would have thought it had any chance of parlaying into organized ball I’d have done it. I can’t imagine a more fun job than baseball GM at the MLB level. It’s the single most important position in the organization by a shit ton, and that’s counting guys on the field imo. 

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

That’s not really accurate. What they won’t do is sign higher priced older guys for longterm deals. There’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t be willing to bring Verlander back for 2-3 seasons at a higher AAV. I mean, they just gave him $25 million (with an option year at the same price) when he hadn’t really pitched since 2019.

Is there a difference between only being willing to sign high priced old guys to short term deals and not signing older high priced guys? Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

[formermav43 4599]

8 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Is there a difference between only being willing to sign high priced old guys to short term deals and not signing older high priced guys? Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

How does Verlander not count? His salary still makes him one of the 10 highest paid pitchers in MLB, and that’s giving it to a guy who theoretically could have been worthless.

[TonyTexas 10482]

11 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Have the Astros signed an older guy to a high AAV short term contract in recent history? (Verlander doesn't count because this was a "prove it" year coming of TJ.)

How about JV’s 2yr/$66M contract he signed for the  2020/21 seasons? Does that not count either?

[formermav43 4599]

It’s not quite the same level, but Brantley at 2/$32M is relevant too-that was top 15ish for OF in AAV.

[LCHorn 2585]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

For some reason, I thought that was your post but my post was about you. 

Hah!  I like to let @Wulaw Horndraw all the fire I'd normally get for harebrained roster ideas.  Back in the day my big bet on eternal glory was to trade a Double A Roy Oswalt for Hank Blalock. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

Dusty not starting Hunter Brown at P today is outrageous!!

 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by TonyTexas

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

7 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Dusty not starting Hunter Brown at P today is outrageous!!

 

 

I assumed thats why they took him out at 79 pitches so that they could make him the opener today or tomorrow. 
fail by Dusty. 

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

16 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

How does Verlander not count? His salary still makes him one of the 10 highest paid pitchers in MLB, and that’s giving it to a guy who theoretically could have been worthless.

 

15 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

How about JV’s 2yr/$66M contract he signed for the  2020/21 seasons? Does that not count either?

 

7 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

It’s not quite the same level, but Brantley at 2/$32M is relevant too-that was top 15ish for OF in AAV.

Okay, so maybe one and a half. I don't know why JV took that deal - if I recall, didn't COVID have something to do with suppressing the market that year?  I could be wrong about that. My point is that everyone wants to sign old, high-priced free agents to short term deals.  Some teams are willing to buy the back end of those contracts when the players could be washed up. The Astros are not one of those.

[formermav43 4599]

5 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

 

 

Okay, so maybe one and a half. I don't know why JV took that deal - if I recall, didn't COVID have something to do with suppressing the market that year?  I could be wrong about that. My point is that everyone wants to sign old, high-priced free agents to short term deals.  Some teams are willing to buy the back end of those contracts when the players could be washed up. The Astros are not one of those.

But even if that’s true, there’s no real back end of a contract on a guy who’s 40 next season. No one is giving him more than 2, *maybe* 3 years regardless. They’re absolutely willing to do that.

Edit: Verlander signed his previous extension prior to the 2019 season. Had nothing to do with COVID.

Edited September 6, 2022 by formermav43

[TonyTexas 10482]

7 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

if I recall, didn't COVID have something to do with suppressing the market that year? 

You’re not having a great day. He signed that deal in March 2019  

[UTexasFight 9380]

Yordan in the starting lineup for a third straight day is exciting 

[Pablo 494]

7 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Yordan in the starting lineup for a third straight day is exciting 

There's still time for a late scratch, you be quiet!

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

You’re not having a great day. He signed that deal in March 2019  

Actually, I'm having a pretty good day, thank you very much. I was wrong about when he signed. Okay.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Pressly's neck issue still isn't resolved:

 

[Js1 85110]

He’s done 

[TexArcher 37519]

30 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Yordan in the starting lineup for a third straight day is exciting 

Yeah, it gives my fantasy team a boner, finally.

[tx 3 putt 76399]

Deshaun Watson can recommend a massage therapist ?

[Murfdogg21 4412]

Can Stevie set Dallas Keuchel up with some late season juice to squeeze the last couple games out of his career? 😂 

[runthebone 7932]

Fuck, Pressly.  Get a fucking Hastens bed and get ready for the playoffs.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

53 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

But even if that’s true, there’s no real back end of a contract on a guy who’s 40 next season. No one is giving him more than 2, *maybe* 3 years regardless. They’re absolutely willing to do that.

Edit: Verlander signed his previous extension prior to the 2019 season. Had nothing to do with COVID.

I could absolutely see someone giving Verlander 4 years with the 4th year as a vesting option. If his contract was insurable I’d definitely do 4/150 or something like that with the 4th year as a $30M vesting option with a player buyout as well. 
the Astros are in really good shape starting pitching wise so I’m not sure I’d do that if I were them, but if I was a team like the Mets I think I would prefer that to a 6/240 or something like that for DeGrom. 

[tx 3 putt 76399]

He has a month to heal up 

[tx 3 putt 76399]

I’m going to guess verlander a is targeting 300 wins, Astros or Dodgers give him his best shot. After that, it falls off

His body can’t handle every 5th day either 

Edited September 6, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[tx 3 putt 76399]

Also, crane and verlander are very close / golf buddies. Might tilt it in our direction. I’d pitch the whole March to 300 marketing campaign / hype

on the flip side, does the wife have a house in  LA ?

[Planet Houston 4923]

Apparently he and Kate were hanging out at Bailey McCarhthy’s (aka Goodman, heiress of the Goodman HVAC fortune) ranch last weekend while he was on the IL. Any billionaires around here who can get the scuttlebutt on what the plan is? 

[tx 3 putt 76399]

2 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Apparently he and Kate were hanging out at Bailey McCarhthy’s (aka Goodman, heiress of the Goodman HVAC fortune) ranch last weekend while he was on the IL. Any billionaires around here who can get the scuttlebutt on what the plan is? 

 

ohh round top it looks like. That’s good, close to hou 

[HtownHorn 14488]

3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

The fear is that the JV money wouldn't be used for a star, but a couple of Jags to fill out the roster.  If you are passing on JV, the upgrade at LF, CF, C or 1 B should be substantial for a game one WS starter.  None of our other pitchers are that guy.

You seem to think that we need a superstar to replace 1B, C, LF, CF. We don't.

We have superstars in Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, and Bregman. What we need are guys that are at least league average.

[Saint Tacky 1610]

3 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Apparently he and Kate were hanging out at Bailey McCarhthy’s (aka Goodman, heiress of the Goodman HVAC fortune) ranch last weekend while he was on the IL. Any billionaires around here who can get the scuttlebutt on what the plan is? 

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

[tx 3 putt 76399]

11 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

 

now I remember her father....The multimillionaire, who is serving a 16-year state prison sentence <<< it takes a special kind of stupid to fuck up being a rich, polo playboy. good job dumb ass

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-ne-john-goodman-dui-manslaughter-case-reopened-20200918-t42jyaksdbclxgvnpnryslgibu-story.html

 

adopting his gf, very kinky ...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2098801/Teenage-children-John-Goodman-fighting-adoption-girlfriend-42-protect-fortune.html

Edited September 6, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[TonyTexas 10482]

13 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Sidebar. I don't believe she's an heiress to the Goodman estate. She and her sibling are the beneficiaries of a significant trust that had been set up for them. That same trust prompted her dad, John Goodman, to try and adopt his then 42-year old girlfriend to keep at least a share of the trust. I went to school with her mom, Carroll (Reckling) Goodman. She was able to block John's end run to cut his girlfriend in on the family money and preserve it for Bailey, et al.

Bailey is Meg Goodman’s daughter. John’s kids are Harriet and John Jr.