2022 Houston Astros Thread

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

25 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

troubling ....

I'm choosing to believe that he's going to slump bust with Angie, and pitch a gem in game one. 

[tx 3 putt 76400]

2 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I'm choosing to believe that he's going to slump bust with Angie, and pitch a gem in game one. 

 

he's due a JV type outing 

[tx 3 putt 76400]

 

[rvm96 1643]

On 10/24/2022 at 10:26 AM, gurt said:

Houston area Academy?

 

On 10/24/2022 at 10:35 AM, Guadaloopy said:

You work at Spirit of Halloween?

Austin airport with F1 fans leaving town

[rvm96 1643]

15 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

If LMJ wants to pitch at home, he should grow in to being our #1 or #2.

it’s assinine to throw your #3 or #4 in game 1 or 2 when your #1 and #2 are fully rested.

He was the #1 last postseason, but I get your point.

[kevwun 15653]

It's not last season.  I watched highlights of Nola's game against the Astros on MLB network.  They swung at a ton of pitches that weren't strikes.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

troubling ....

He pitched well enough in the 2017 WS. I've always felt that pitching him on short rest against the Rays in the 2019 ALDS affected his performance for the duration of the playoffs. For all the criticism Hinch got for pulling Greinke and not using Cole in game 7, I think pitching JV on short rest in the ALDS was the bigger mistake. 

[utxmike05 1825]

Fukkkk.  Feels like it's been a month since I have watched the Stros.  Slowest week ever.

[Scraps 13542]

Just now, utxmike05 said:

Fukkkk.  Feels like it's been a month since I have watched the Stros.  Slowest week ever.

Yeah I am over this.  I started to get a little hype last night, which went away pretty quickly knowing we still had hours to go.  Get to tomorrow already. 

[UTexasFight 9380]

this is why October is the longest, shortest month of the year.

either trying to make the clock go faster to get to the next game or reliving the game that just happened.

and in any event, you look up at the beginning of November and wonder where the hell October went 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Hadn't seen this posted yet. The analysis is detailed. The YouTube video is a tough watch. I couldn't get past the five minute mark.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/the-ultimate-houston-astros-world-series-matchup-guide

Here's a summary for the tl;dr crowd:

Final Thoughts

I really think the boxing scoring system illustrates the significant advantage I see for the Astros in this series.

 

• The only SP advantage I see for the Phillies is game 2 (and game 6 if it goes that far) with Wheeler vs. Valdez.

• The matchup system amplifies the advantages one sees in the more traditional statistical analysis

• The top of the Phillies lineup is likely to produce

• The Philadelphia defense will cost them at least 3 runs this series

• I think the Astros win in 5.

 

[CycleTex87 2954]

Glad there’s no Texas football this weekend to distract from the real business of Astros World Series baseball. 

[CycleTex87 2954]

1 minute ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Hadn't seen this posted yet. The analysis is detailed. The YouTube video is a tough watch. I couldn't get past the five minute mark.

https://www.larrythegm.com/post/the-ultimate-houston-astros-world-series-matchup-guide

Here's a summary for the tl;dr crowd:

Final Thoughts

I really think the boxing scoring system illustrates the significant advantage I see for the Astros in this series.

 

• The only SP advantage I see for the Phillies is game 2 (and game 6 if it goes that far) with Wheeler vs. Valdez.

• The matchup system amplifies the advantages one sees in the more traditional statistical analysis

• The top of the Phillies lineup is likely to produce

• The Philadelphia defense will cost them at least 3 runs this series

• I think the Astros win in 5.

 

I mean, all these detailed breakdowns all show an Astros advantage.  Clearly.  Why even play the games at this point, just crown their ass, the Astros are who we thought they were.?

[WBT 20422]

I posted in the mlb thread that Stearns resigned from Milwaukee.  Would Crane really not bring Click back off of back to back WS?  

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

rain Friday? roof closed

[The Dog 43807]

 

[MAROON 445]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

I posted in the mlb thread that Stearns resigned from Milwaukee.  Would Crane really not bring Click back off of back to back WS?  

Yep.  Crane is the defacto GM.  Click is the face of the job

[tx 3 putt 76400]

[kevwun 15653]

Holy shit at Maldonado. 

[tx 3 putt 76400]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Holy shit at Maldonado. 

y’all keep talking shit another machete !!!

[TonyTexas 10482]

7 minutes ago, MAROON said:

Yep.  Crane is the defacto GM.  Click is the face of the job

No he’s not. 

[kevwun 15653]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

y’all keep talking shit another machete !!!

I think they must only watch the Astros during the playoffs.  A couple of announcers have said how it always seems like he's on base during the playoffs which is the only time they pay attention.

[tx 3 putt 76400]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I think they must only watch the Astros during the playoffs.  A couple of announcers have said how it always seems like he's on base during the playoffs which is the only time they pay attention.

For us this season, the only time the games have mattered. This team has been on cruise control from may to oct  

Edited October 27, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[henrygandorf 29177]

12 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

troubling ....

i'm sure his game logs aren't hard to find, but he allowed 5 hits total in 2 starts in 2017 (and it's not like he was walking a bunch of guys).  i can't remember the breakdown in 2019, but i think he had one decent game and one shitty game.  a lot of those stats that account for the 5.68 were in his tigers days.  he also seems to have gotten his homer situation under control from pre-surgery, and a lot of the runs were on solo shots.

a lot was made in 2018-19 with the juiced balls and all the homers he was giving up.  he didn't do that this season.

with our bullpen, i would like to see 6ip, 2er, which is in line with most of what he's done as an astro in the world series, and worse than he's been in the playoffs overall.  the 0-6 is ugly but it's not like he's been non-competitive.  we've been in every game and obviously those weren't all losses (the marwin game).

[kevwun 15653]

The start against the Mariners he had serious control issues.  That one is an outlier even amongst his bad playoff starts.  It was one of those games where he had no clue where the ball was gonna go.

Edited October 27, 2022 by kevwun

[Gourmand 7774]

32 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

No he’s not. 

Agreed, that is a weird take.

Crane is an active owner but he's not Jerry Jones jfc. 

[henrygandorf 29177]

17 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Agreed, that is a weird take.

Crane is an active owner but he's not Jerry Jones jfc. 

i think he empowers the analytics guys in the front office to be a part of the decision making, but that's as close as it gets.

yeah, he weighs in on trades and signings, most of which involve money, which owners typically have a say in.

[Scraps 13542]

Mlb network (of course its Mad Dog and that Dodgers slut Alanna right now) finally live from MMP so starting to feel like gametime again

[TonyTexas 10482]

59 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm sure his game logs aren't hard to find,

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=verlaju01&t=p&year=0&post=1

[Scraps 13542]

Also "Path to the Pennant" will be on mlb network tonight at 9 for AL if anyone needs more yankee tears

[Js1 85110]

2 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

rain Friday? roof closed

Nightingale says roof closed Friday and Saturday 

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

31 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think he empowers the analytics guys in the front office to be a part of the decision making, but that's as close as it gets.

yeah, he weighs in on trades and signings, most of which involve money, which owners typically have a say in.

He also is there to tell his GM's not to be a pussy when they start to get all up in their feels about making a trade or a big move.  JL got over that and pulled the trigger for Greinke.  Click made no corresponding move.  Maybe that's where the animus comes from?

[UTexasFight 9380]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He also is there to tell his GM's not to be a pussy when they start to get all up in their feels about making a trade or a big move.  JL got over that and pulled the trigger for Greinke.  Click made no corresponding move.  Maybe that's where the animus comes from?

Crane wanted Correa.

I’d say regardless of how the next 4-7 games go, Click was right on that one.

[tx 3 putt 76400]

1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

Crane wanted Correa.

I’d say regardless of how the next 4-7 games go, Click was right on that one.

 

they made him a good offer, he passed. you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink

correa takes the offer had he not switched agents in the middle of free agency 

[henrygandorf 29177]

20 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Mlb network (of course its Mad Dog and that Dodgers slut Alanna right now) finally live from MMP so starting to feel like gametime again
 

they're interviewing kalas now, and even he just said, "jv did not have a great series against the dodgers after winning the alcs mvp".

in 2017, both games in dodger stadium (i went to g6), he went 12ip, 5h, 5er, 14k, 2bb.  i remember in game 6 he just ran out of gas near the end.  he hit a guy i think, we could've turned 2 and didn't, there was a weakly hit double the other way or something, and he was just generally missing his spots.  still it was just a game we lost 3-1.  i think he carried a 1-0 lead into the 6th (springer dong) and he gave up 2. 

it was when my wife went to the bathroom and shitass dodger fans were giving her a hard time and she came back and said, "i'm not going to the bathroom by myself anymore" and i was like, we just gave up the lead, we're dealing with way more important stuff over here (than her safety).  then went over well.

that said, his alcs was one for the ages.  both games at mmp.  16ip, 10h, 1er, 21k, 2bb.  still can't believe he was our sp2 in that series, eyeroll.

[tx 3 putt 76400]

they did a better job of giving him some extra rest during the regular season 

Edited October 27, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[henrygandorf 29177]

6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

I’d say regardless of how the next 4-7 games go, Click was right on that one.

so far so good.  hard to say what we would've done with pena had we resigned correa.  also will be interesting to see what we do with that cash moving forward.  if losing correa means we extend tucker and keep up the strategy of being aggressive at the deadline and extending the window, then yeah, it was the right move to be sure.

i'm just happy to not be dealing with the correa drama again this offseason.  really curious to see what the plan is with verlander.  i would basically tell him he can stay on one year deals for $35mm per as long as he wants, and it would be hard for him to say no to that.  it can't really be about the money at this point.

that said, we're probably the one team in mlb that could lose a verlander and still win 100 games next year.  a 6-man rotation of framber-javier-mccullers-garcia-urquidy-brown (if all healthy) is the best in the al if not mlb.  i just don't know where that money would go if we keep it.  there's not a crop of free agent outfielders, just a bunch more shortstops and judge.

if we pitch well and win this series, there's an argument to be made to keep a 6 man rotation for much of the season, and even rotate guys on and off the il when needed.  otherwise you have to make a deal.  brown can't be a bullpen piece. 

[tx 3 putt 76400]

 

[henrygandorf 29177]

also @Wulaw Horn what do you think judge ultimately gets?  you're usually pretty good at contract predictions.

next year is his age 31 season.  he shouldn't get more than 6 but someone will offer him 8.  my guess is sf/chc go all in and someone ends up giving him a 7-275 or 8-300 deal.  i hope it's the yankees.

[tx 3 putt 76400]

[UTexasFight 9380]

12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

they made him a good offer, he passed. you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink

correa takes the offer had he not switched agents in the middle of free agency 

Right. 

That’s Click line/justification

I’m saying Crane’s line is “I don’t care. I want him.”

 

[tx 3 putt 76400]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

so far so good.  hard to say what we would've done with pena had we resigned correa.  also will be interesting to see what we do with that cash moving forward.  if losing correa means we extend tucker and keep up the strategy of being aggressive at the deadline and extending the window, then yeah, it was the right move to be sure.

i'm just happy to not be dealing with the correa drama again this offseason.  really curious to see what the plan is with verlander.  i would basically tell him he can stay on one year deals for $35mm per as long as he wants, and it would be hard for him to say no to that.  it can't really be about the money at this point.

that said, we're probably the one team in mlb that could lose a verlander and still win 100 games next year.  a 6-man rotation of framber-javier-mccullers-garcia-urquidy-brown (if all healthy) is the best in the al if not mlb.  i just don't know where that money would go if we keep it.  there's not a crop of free agent outfielders, just a bunch more shortstops and judge.

if we pitch well and win this series, there's an argument to be made to keep a 6 man rotation for much of the season, and even rotate guys on and off the il when needed.  otherwise you have to make a deal.  brown can't be a bullpen piece. 

 

verlander wants a shot at #300 wins. Astros / Dodgers / Yankees would give him the best opportunity at that. He would be a tremendous add to the M's, Blue Jays, Orioles, Braves, Padres. 

[TonyTexas 10482]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

verlander wants a shot at #300 wins. Astros / Dodgers / Yankees would give him the best opportunity at that. He would be a tremendous add to the M's, Blue Jays, Orioles, Braves, Padres. 

The Rangers are going to be in on every free agent pitcher this offseason. 

Edited October 27, 2022 by TonyTexas

[tx 3 putt 76400]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

The Rangers are going to be in on every free agent pitcher this offseason. 

 

they're also a .500 team with two huge / dumb contracts. im not sure the payroll of the teams I listed but dodgers and yankees should have deep pockets 

[WBT 20422]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

they're also a .500 team with two huge / dumb contracts. 

Well, 26 games under but they're basically right there

[kevwun 15653]

I just don't see Crane letting Verlander pitch for another team next year.  He will give him whatever it takes.

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

13 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also @Wulaw Horn what do you think judge ultimately gets?  you're usually pretty good at contract predictions.

next year is his age 31 season.  he shouldn't get more than 6 but someone will offer him 8.  my guess is sf/chc go all in and someone ends up giving him a 7-275 or 8-300 deal.  i hope it's the yankees.

Honestly I think it's 10/350.  He turned down what- 7/221 at the beginning of the year and then went out and won the MVP and hit 62 HR's.  It's going to be an overpay.  Everyone knows its going to be an overpay.  The Giants just make a ton of sense to me. That's a big market team sort of disguised as a small market team that could easily spend $250M if they wanted to and thought it would make sense.  

I'm going to assume Rodon opts out over there and that they decline the club option on Evan Longoria (13M).  That leaves them Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood, Anthony Desclafani (I'm not sure that's a real human being) Tommy La Stella, Alex Cobb and Wilmer Flores on the payroll. That payroll adds up to 62M in Luxury tax payroll.  In 2024 they only have DeSclafani and Flores on their payroll for 17M. They could easily afford judge at 35M per.  They have a rabid fanbase, they print money in that park, he's the local guy. There's a lot they can  talk themselves into and I think they will overpay.  

I could see NYY offering him 8/300 or something like that for sure. I think that's probably their number.  And that's a higher AAV.  But, I think he just takes the highest total dollar figure and I think it's 350M- even though I know that's really aggressive.  I too share your sentiments that I hope it's the Yanks.  That contract, whoever signs him, will be painful on the back end of the deal and it has a sneaky chance of being a disaster 2 or 3 years in if I'm being honest.  

[Pimphand 5597]

4 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

He pitched well enough in the 2017 WS. I've always felt that pitching him on short rest against the Rays in the 2019 ALDS affected his performance for the duration of the playoffs. For all the criticism Hinch got for pulling Greinke and not using Cole in game 7, I think pitching JV on short rest in the ALDS was the bigger mistake. 

Yeah especially as well as Urquidy did after that dumbassery.

[kevwun 15653]

Judge is so big that when his bat speed starts to go his size is going to work against him.  He's still gonna have that huge strikezone to cover.  It could get very ugly, very quickly for him.

Edited October 27, 2022 by kevwun

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Judge is so big that when his bat speed starts to go his size is going to work against him.  He's still gonna have that huge strikezone to cover.  It could get very ugly, very quickly for him.

Yep.  And between now and then he's a large human being and I don't trust those guys not to pull muscles and shelve themselves for 30 or 50 games.