Global Spring?

[Schulz2.0 28,616]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Even if China managed to take Taiwan militarily, they'd get buttfucked by sanctions. 

[FartingMonk 3,604]

14 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Part of the issue is loans are secured by outgoing governments, they take their cuts, get subcontracts and then leave it to the next administration to pay off. Happened in Kenya. 

Have a good friend who lives in Kenya. he hates the Chinese investment and talks about it all the time. What was interesting is few people can afford to ride the train and too expensive for cargo. So China said right, drop the rates, and BTW, we will take over the oil terminal in the Mombassa port. Kenya said nope. It is part of their master energy plan and China hates it. Chinese Oil has to go out of Sudan north. The plan is for South Sudan to Mombassa to remove what Sudan gets. That is one of China's allies in Africa, just quietly.

The notes about Gwadar is interesting. That was a massive project started back when in the early 2000's. Dubai Ports was trying to secure it. Pakistan took the loans and gave it to China.

Hope the developing world wakes up to the risks. 

That was one of my biggest concerns about the Paris Accord.  We funnel billions of dollars to the U.N so they can give it to developing nations to undertake massive projects led by the Chinese.  So basically we are just giving money to the Chinese and these projects get abandoned after it is pilfered from bribes and half assed work.

[Humble Beast 258]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Even if China managed to take Taiwan militarily, they'd get buttfucked by sanctions. 

Unfortunately I doubt this. We’ve showed our hand sanction wise with Ukraine and it will be even harder to exclude China meaningfully from any markets. 
 

Do you have anything specific in mind that would really hurt them?

[FartingMonk 3,604]

1 minute ago, Humble Beast said:

Unfortunately I doubt this. We’ve showed our hand sanction wise with Ukraine and it will be even harder to exclude China meaningfully from any markets. 
 

Do you have anything specific in mind that would really hurt them?

Quit buying rubber dog poop from Hong Kong

[Parliament 13,992]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

Unfortunately I doubt this. We’ve showed our hand sanction wise with Ukraine and it will be even harder to exclude China meaningfully from any markets. 
 

Do you have anything specific in mind that would really hurt them?

American soybeans would really hurt them.  Totally valid question of if we'd do it.

Peter Zeihan (love him or hate him) says we could easily shut down most of their oil imports.  Again, bid question if we'd be willing to do it.

[Humble Beast 258]

29 minutes ago, Parliament said:

American soybeans would really hurt them.  Totally valid question of if we'd do it.

Peter Zeihan (love him or hate him) says we could easily shut down most of their oil imports.  Again, bid question if we'd be willing to do it.

I question how we could stop them from importing oil. Ukraine/Russia have shown that it’s very difficult to stop the flow of oil and gas to market. I guess if you’re blockading China then maybe that is possible but that’s like A WW3 type scenario. 
 

Some of y’all have more thorough knowledge of the advantages each side would have. 

China-rare earths, dominance of solar/wind energy supply chains

US-oil/gas, soybeans. 
 

I’m sure there’s a lot I’m missing. 

[InkaUtexas 24,894]

6 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

That was one of my biggest concerns about the Paris Accord.  We funnel billions of dollars to the U.N so they can give it to developing nations to undertake massive projects led by the Chinese.  So basically we are just giving money to the Chinese and these projects get abandoned after it is pilfered from bribes and half assed work.

Yes and no. We fund most development projects that go through the UN via Direct Action. We don't just hand over cash and say, hey, UN, cut Bolivia a check. One program I do like that is US run and led is the Millennium Challenge. Countries have to meet a threshold. We train locals, provide oversight, and then implement. I won't get into USAID. That would get me into trouble with the big bosses of the Surly. 

We are seeing more countries turn to the west for long turn development. Mozambique is a good example. Everyone thought China oil was going to take the development fields in the north. Nope, awarded to us and the French. And we in turn built schools and roads under a development package vs. loans. There is hope. Industry and development go hand in hand. 

[InkaUtexas 24,894]

27 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I question how we could stop them from importing oil. Ukraine/Russia have shown that it’s very difficult to stop the flow of oil and gas to market. I guess if you’re blockading China then maybe that is possible but that’s like A WW3 type scenario. 
 

Some of y’all have more thorough knowledge of the advantages each side would have. 

China-rare earths, dominance of solar/wind energy supply chains

US-oil/gas, soybeans. 
 

I’m sure there’s a lot I’m missing. 

Rare Earth Minerals is something that interests me. Not what to do with them, but where are they and how do we extract. Worked an NSF project and that was the focus. REM in Africa. Man, I think my group figured out some good things. And fortunately the countries we focused on tend to be on our side. We could easily set up a REM project in parts of Africa. Secretary Blinken alluded to this yesterday when he was in the Congo. Interesting times are coming. 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Rare Earth Minerals is something that interests me. Not what to do with them, but where are they and how do we extract. Worked an NSF project and that was the focus. REM in Africa. Man, I think my group figured out some good things. And fortunately the countries we focused on tend to be on our side. We could easily set up a REM project in parts of Africa. Secretary Blinken alluded to this yesterday when he was in the Congo. Interesting times are coming. 

 

That sounds awesome. We need to get cracking on that. It will be a big pressure point if/when we clash with China.
 

I’d also love to see us onshoring some more of the solar/wind supply chain. We’re seeing what happens when a belligerent country has a stranglehold on your energy. It’s not quite the same as needing a literal flow of energy like Europe from Russia, but it’s a big weak spot if we’re attempting to squash other means of energy. 

[InkaUtexas 24,894]

Yep, agree. If anyone on here is working REM and wants to talk East Africa let me know. Will cost ya tree fiddy and a beer.

[Humble Beast 258]

8 hours ago, Parliament said:

American soybeans would really hurt them.  Totally valid question of if we'd do it.

Peter Zeihan (love him or hate him) says we could easily shut down most of their oil imports.  Again, bid question if we'd be willing to do it.

Shipping routes are already being re-organized by Chinese to get around Russian sanctions.
 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Great news 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,616]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Kind of crazy how all these things converge when these big changes take place. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 88,806]

 

[Superhero 8,586]

California preparing for mega flood?

Construction will grind to a halt and I will lose my job. But the possibilities of lush greenery around my house makes it worth it. 

[atomheartbevo 88,806]

Bigass shopping center blew up in Armenia

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-62540398

[Brisketexan 103,401]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bigass shopping center blew up in Armenia

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-62540398

Huh.  Remember going by there when we were there.  It looked like, ummm, a shithole.  Would be unsurprised by it being a gas leak or whatnot.  Armenian infrastructure is largely old Russian infrastructure, which has been maintained by the past 30 years mostly by the Armenian gov't and such, so......yeah.  Shit, you couldn't drive more than 25 mph on many of the stretches of "highway" we drove on (a few were decent.....mostly those that connected to the  nearby Russian military base).

[Brisketexan 103,401]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Huh.  Remember going by there when we were there.  It looked like, ummm, a shithole.  Would be unsurprised by it being a gas leak or whatnot.  Armenian infrastructure is largely old Russian infrastructure, which has been maintained by the past 30 years mostly by the Armenian gov't and such, so......yeah.  Shit, you couldn't drive more than 25 mph on many of the stretches of "highway" we drove on (a few were decent.....mostly those that connected to the  nearby Russian military base).

Follow up -- I see it was a fireworks storage warehouse at that location.  Yeah, shit happens in places with zero safety regs.

[atomheartbevo 88,806]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Follow up -- I see it was a fireworks storage warehouse at that location.  Yeah, shit happens in places with zero safety regs.

Storing fireworks at a shopping center.

That’s  Armenian as fuck.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Captainant 26,882]

3 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

 

I bet if they get more Bitcoin miners that'll fix their grid, right???

[Humble Beast 258]

Surely they will reverse course? Running out of time. 
 

 

[Parliament 13,992]

Are they idiots?  Serious question.  Is there a cultural thing at work here?

[Gengs1 2,583]

14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are they idiots?  Serious question.  Is there a cultural thing at work here?

The Germans follow the rules, they are black and white on rules, I think they just want guidance from gov on what to do, right now they been told to shut it down and are following the rules 

[Humble Beast 258]

11 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

The Germans follow the rules, they are black and white on rules, I think they just want guidance from gov on what to do, right now they been told to shut it down and are following the rules 

The policy makers are idiots. The people running the plant need funding before they buy more fuel for reactors. 

[Gengs1 2,583]

Just now, Humble Beast said:

The policy makers are idiots. 

Well that’s seems to be universally true, seems like we have idiots everywhere in the top parts of the government 

[Brisketexan 103,401]

33 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Are they idiots?  Serious question.  Is there a cultural thing at work here?

Germany has a HUGE "no nukes" sentiment that runs through much of their society.  Some of it has roots in the cold war movements, etc., but it's become a super-strong and not rationally based thing.  We have friends there, and visiting with them less than a year ago, they were positively jubilant that their local nuke plant was going to shut down.  I didn't get it, I just listened and tried to understand.

18 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

The Germans follow the rules, they are black and white on rules, I think they just want guidance from gov on what to do, right now they been told to shut it down and are following the rules 

And as for the operators, this.  They were ordered to fly the plane into the mountain.  They are just informing the higher-ups that they continue on course for the mountain, and will continue to do so unless given different orders.  That's as close as a German will get to telling a superior "are you fucking nuts?  I'm not doing that!"

This is one issue where I'm on the same page as many of our most strident conservatives: nuclear energy must be part of the long-term plan for weaning off of fossil fuels, ESPECIALLY for places that can't depend on enough wind and solar, but also elsewhere because it's a 24/7 generation source.  Clean, safe nuclear power has to be in the mix if we are going to meaningfully decrease FF emissions.

[Parliament 13,992]

22 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The policy makers are idiots. 

Lolololololol, their government isn't as awesome as our...

 

[Brisketexan 103,401]

32 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Lolololololol, their government isn't as awesome as our...

 

When it comes to workaday governance issues, you can choose WHICH issues a government will have, but you can't pick one that doesn't HAVE issues.  Really, it's like any governing body -- whether it be a corporate board of directors, a church session, what have you.  You can select one set of dysfunctions or another, but "none" is never an option.  Such is reality.

[Humble Beast 258]

35 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Lolololololol, their government isn't as awesome as our...

 

We have a lot of problems in our government, but we haven’t yet engineered an energy/economic crisis for our population. I mean there’s a run on firewood happening preparing for this winter. 
 

52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Germany has a HUGE "no nukes" sentiment that runs through much of their society.  Some of it has roots in the cold war movements, etc., but it's become a super-strong and not rationally based thing.  We have friends there, and visiting with them less than a year ago, they were positively jubilant that their local nuke plant was going to shut down.  I didn't get it, I just listened and tried to understand.

And as for the operators, this.  They were ordered to fly the plane into the mountain.  They are just informing the higher-ups that they continue on course for the mountain, and will continue to do so unless given different orders.  That's as close as a German will get to telling a superior "are you fucking nuts?  I'm not doing that!"

This is one issue where I'm on the same page as many of our most strident conservatives: nuclear energy must be part of the long-term plan for weaning off of fossil fuels, ESPECIALLY for places that can't depend on enough wind and solar, but also elsewhere because it's a 24/7 generation source.  Clean, safe nuclear power has to be in the mix if we are going to meaningfully decrease FF emissions.

I don’t know the whole evolution of German anti-nuke policy, but the genesis of it globally came from a Malthusian perspective. It came about at the same time as over population concerns became more prominent. You even had prominent environmentalists decrying what would happen if humans had access to too much cheap energy. If we flourish too much we would damage the environment more. 

[Brisketexan 103,401]

Just now, Humble Beast said:

We have a lot of problems in our government, but we haven’t yet engineered an energy/economic crisis for our population. I mean there’s a run on firewood happening preparing for this winter. 

Sure.  Making my point.  Each government comes with different problems.  Our system has fostered a broad social ethos and function of narcissism and demonizing empathy so that we are building a "tragedy of the commons" (exacerbating the "private benefits, but socialized costs" outcome) writ large.  Different problems than more socially cohesive governmental systems and societies have.

[Fudge Nuggets 18,831]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Are they idiots?  Serious question.  Is there a cultural thing at work here?

The jerrys are well known for their flexibility and ability to adjust to changing conditions.

Like not at all.

[InkaUtexas 24,894]

Kenya elections going as suspected. Will be an interesting situation to watch. 

 

[Parliament 13,992]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/china/china-covid-shanghai-ikea-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html

[atomheartbevo 88,806]

Getting locked into an IKEA store for a few days.  That’s a lot of non-functioning display toilets to try out.  And a lot of beds.

And a fucking nightmare.

[atomheartbevo 88,806]

“More coup-proof”

[NorthLoop 13,919]

I mean every time I go to IKEA I expect to be there for a few days. 

[Superhero 8,586]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Getting locked into an IKEA store for a few days.  That’s a lot of non-functioning display toilets to try out.  And a lot of beds.

And a fucking nightmare.

But think of all the Swedish meatballs and Lingonberry drink you will be enjoying.

[BabaYaga 15,129]

14 hours ago, Parliament said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/china/china-covid-shanghai-ikea-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html

[crash_davis 23,040]

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Getting locked into an IKEA store for a few days.  That’s a lot of non-functioning display toilets to try out.  And a lot of beds.

And a fucking nightmare.

that's heaven for starter families. all that got damned furniture already pre-made! i'd jizz in every made bed as a sacrifice to the gods.

[BabaYaga 15,129]

Hundreds of people.  Handful of restrooms.  Seems fine

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Macanudo 12,667]

9 hours ago, Superhero said:

But think of all the Swedish meatballs and Lingonberry drink you will be enjoying.

Will they have any Malort?

[crash_davis 23,040]

not ketchup and pasta sauce!!! now it's fucking serious!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html

 The problem is the worst drought in 1,200 years is forcing farmers to grapple with a water crisis that’s undermining the crop, threatening to further push up prices from salsa to spaghetti sauce.

“We desperately need rain,” Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, said in an interview. “We are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand.”

[BabaYaga 15,129]

34 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

 

Going to become a crisis come winter.  They're already dusting off all the old coal plants

[Brisketexan 103,401]

14 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

not ketchup and pasta sauce!!! now it's fucking serious!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html

 The problem is the worst drought in 1,200 years is forcing farmers to grapple with a water crisis that’s undermining the crop, threatening to further push up prices from salsa to spaghetti sauce.

“We desperately need rain,” Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, said in an interview. “We are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand.”

I shall engage and fill my strategic salsa reserve.  Some matters must be taken seriously.

[Parliament 13,992]

19 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

not ketchup and pasta sauce!!! now it's fucking serious!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-water-124539175.html

 The problem is the worst drought in 1,200 years is forcing farmers to grapple with a water crisis that’s undermining the crop, threatening to further push up prices from salsa to spaghetti sauce.

“We desperately need rain,” Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, said in an interview. “We are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand.”

The Midwest tomato crop is doing just fine.  Let's not panic just yet.

[crash_davis 23,040]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

The Midwest tomato crop is doing just fine.  Let's not panic just yet.

Peasant! Only poor people buy pasta sauce made with tomatoes from the Midwest.

[Humble Beast 258]