Global Spring?

[Trey3216 15,349]

38 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Good grief.

He gets a share of profits after buying share of various companies. That does not mean that profits still aren't privatized. The profits are going io people who pay into the company, either through employment or ownership.

How do his retirement accounts disagree with profits being privatized, as you claimed? Is a paycheck somehow evidence that profit isn't privatized?

A publicly traded company  returns profit to their investors via share price increases, share buybacks, or dividend payments.  They also spend money on R&D and intellectual property/workforce that enables the 3 profit distribution mechanisms to happen.   Anyone who hates profit motives of companies and invests in the market is guilty of chimerical hypocrisy.   

Edited September 1, 2022 by Trey3216

[Captainant 27,680]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

A publicly traded company  returns profit to their investors via share price increases, share buybacks, or dividend payments.  They also spend money on R&D and intellectual property/workforce that enables the 3 profit distribution mechanisms to happen.   Anyone who hates profit motives of companies and invests in the market is guilty of chimerical hypocrisy.   

Lmao. There's a difference between a reasonable profit margin and market exploitation just because you can. By your logic, nobody who practices capitalism can criticize, otherwise they're hypocrites?

But genuinely, the fact that oil and petrochemical refineries can pollute massively and materially damage a community's population and natural ecosystem and have no obligation to fix any of that... Is a prime example of socialized costs and privatized profits. Which is exactly why pollution and climate change has gotten so severe in aggregate across the globe. The damages happen on a decades long timescale, the profits are this quarter BAYBEEEE!

[Trey3216 15,349]

15 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Lmao. There's a difference between a reasonable profit margin and market exploitation just because you can. By your logic, nobody who practices capitalism can criticize, otherwise they're hypocrites?

But genuinely, the fact that oil and petrochemical refineries can pollute massively and materially damage a community's population and natural ecosystem and have no obligation to fix any of that... Is a prime example of socialized costs and privatized profits. Which is exactly why pollution and climate change has gotten so severe in aggregate across the globe. The damages happen on a decades long timescale, the profits are this quarter BAYBEEEE!

I was expecting a simpleton, words in my mouth retort from you.   

[Brisketexan 105,160]

33 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Anyone who hates profit motives of companies and invests in the market is guilty of chimerical hypocrisy.   

Naah, see what Captain said.

No problem with private profits, none at all.  They just need to match up with the costs of the endeavor.  Socializing the costs of an activity means that everyone bears the cost side of the equation for that market activity, but ONLY those who are involved in/invest in the market activity get the profits.  That's a problem.

Each market activity should bear its own costs, and if priced accordingly, enjoy the benefit of its own profits.  If you don't "bear your own costs," then the profits aren't really all yours.

[Serak The Preparer 3,431]

25 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I was expecting a simpleton, words in my mouth retort from you.   

lol at complaining about words in your mouth when you somehow equated "capitalism privates profits" with "hating profit" and "chimerical hypocrisy", and further claimed that investing in a company (and expecting returns) is somehow evidence that profits aren't privatized. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Serak The Preparer

[Humble Beast 258]

UK getting hammered, but sharing this more for the comment from a thread favorite. 
 

As I saw it described online, the market is forward looking. It’s telling us there aren’t going to be enough energy in Europe this winter. All that’s left over is the rationing. Who wins and who loses. 
 

Unfortunately while helpful politically in the short term, goosing demand into winter by subsidizing usage is potentially going to worsen things. 80% storage is great, but no flow will negate that. 

[Captainant 27,680]

9 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

As I saw it described online, the market is forward looking. It’s telling us there aren’t going to be enough energy in Europe this winter. All that’s left over is the rationing. Who wins and who loses. 

Idk if it's """the market""" or a fascist authoritarian using economic warfare to try to gain a strategic advantage by harming the allies of his victim in his war of aggression

[Humble Beast 258]

Almost looks fake here, but this is being called an assassination attempt on Kirchner. How do you get so close and have the gun misfire?

 

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Humble Beast

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

This is likely to backfire imo. 
 

Supplies will be diminished globally causing higher prices of oil. Russia will likely make up the difference again as price goes up, thus inflicting more pain on G7 with little gain. 
 

There’s also the matter of OPEC+ response. How will the seller’s cartel respond to attempted formation of a buyer’s cartel? Not favorably I’m thinking. 

[Brisketexan 105,160]

Moving the boy to the UK in a week.  I'm doing two things for sure: 1) I'm going to transfer a shitload of money to his UK bank account while I can buy GBPs for $1.15, and 2) we're buying him a good extra blanket, because I fully expect his dorm to go on energy rationing when it gets really cold.

Such is the way of the world right now.  Europe made some unwise choices in where to get its energy over the last 30 years.  Undoing those choices is going to cause some pain for a while.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Schulz2.0 28,962]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

 

This is likely to backfire imo. 
 

Supplies will be diminished globally causing higher prices of oil. Russia will likely make up the difference again as price goes up, thus inflicting more pain on G7 with little gain. 
 

There’s also the matter of OPEC+ response. How will the seller’s cartel respond to attempted formation of a buyer’s cartel? Not favorably I’m thinking. 

Russia has said they'd stop production if a price cap is enforced. That doesn't really make any sense. While that would hurt the rest of the world, it would completely screw Russia.

[Anastasis 23,477]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Europe made some unwise choices in where to get its energy over the last 30 years.

Europe should have made better decisions in terms of where they get their energy and their geopolitical relationship with those sources.

The United States:

 

[Brisketexan 105,160]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Europe should have made better decisions in terms of where they get their energy and their geopolitical relationship with those sources.

The United States:

 

Fair, to a degree.  To the extent we depend on tech and pharmaceuticals, putting ourselves in a position to depend on China so much has been.....unwise.  Handing your adversary your testicles to be squeezed is rarely a sound decision (unless you're super-into that, I ain't judging).

Time to trot out my Brisketexan "make central america and mexico our new China" post again.  It's not even that far up the page.

[Humble Beast 258]

22 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russia has said they'd stop production if a price cap is enforced. That doesn't really make any sense. While that would hurt the rest of the world, it would completely screw Russia.

I haven’t seen stopping production presented as an option anywhere. The more obvious option would be to trim production to start a price shock. Theres a JP Morgan note circulating that a temporary 30% cut in production could almost double prices. You can do the math there. They’d come out ahead, and it would be fairly destabilizing. Although there’d be concerns about how well production could ramp back up after that. 

Official OPEC+ response will be important as well. 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fair, to a degree.  To the extent we depend on tech and pharmaceuticals, putting ourselves in a position to depend on China so much has been.....unwise.  Handing your adversary your testicles to be squeezed is rarely a sound decision (unless you're super-into that, I ain't judging).

Time to trot out my Brisketexan "make central america and mexico our new China" post again.  It's not even that far up the page.

Green energy. We’re actually moving towards more dependency on Chiner there. 

[sidis 9,832]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fair, to a degree.  To the extent we depend on tech and pharmaceuticals, putting ourselves in a position to depend on China so much has been.....unwise.  Handing your adversary your testicles to be squeezed is rarely a sound decision (unless you're super-into that, I ain't judging).

Time to trot out my Brisketexan "make central america and mexico our new China" post again.  It's not even that far up the page.

to a degree?  from the coup on behalf of anglo-iranian oil all the way through the departure from afghanistan and iraq over the last decade...and everything in between...there was no shortage of "unwise" in the last century of american adventurism and diplomacy vis-a-vis global energy economics.

[Brisketexan 105,160]

2 minutes ago, sidis said:

to a degree?  from the coup on behalf of anglo-iranian oil all the way through the departure from afghanistan and iraq over the last decade...and everything in between...there was no shortage of "unwise" in the last century of american adventurism and diplomacy vis-a-vis global energy economics.

Also fair.  I guess my perspective on that is influenced by where we are today, which is that we have sufficient domestic production to cover our needs (both regular and strategic).  But, yeah.   Our thirst for the black stuff has definitely led to some regrettable and foolish bullshit.

And yes, also a good point above about how much we depend on China for green energy tech (solar panels and related equipment especially).  Bottom line, the "globalized" world is learning some very harsh lessons about how much you can/should depend on unfriendly nations for your well-being.  Most of Europe is a trustworthy trading partner.  Latin America (particularly Mexico and Central America) can be.  Why in the hell aren't our solar panels manufactured in Honduras instead of China?

And I say all of this as a believer in the global economy and "globalism" in general.  But it's just like damn near everything else -- do it wisely, deliberately, and in moderation.  Lotta hard lessons being learned these last few years thanks to COVID, Putin, and Xi.

[sidis 9,832]

on the one hand, it really is hard to judge germany and eastern europe for being somewhat skittish about nuclear power infrastructure.  i suspect that living through spring 1986 with the potential threat of a giant radioactive cloud consuming you due to the stupidity of a bunch of fucking russian and Ukrainian idiots makes you more fearful than is practically rational.  and the relative cheapness of natural gas in the last three decades makes it hard to argue with...but man, placing all your bets on russian economic codependency and rationality is just such a bad idea.  doing business with them is the absolute last place i would want to be in any context.  

catch-22 all around.  if you're self-satisfied europe, you just hope that russia does all their gross shit behind closed doors so you can keep extracting what you want from them.  but when it crosses that line, it puts you in a difficult position.

[Brisketexan 105,160]

14 minutes ago, sidis said:

 if you're self-satisfied europe, you just hope that russia does all their gross shit behind closed doors so you can keep extracting what you want from them.  but when it crosses that line, it puts you in a difficult position.

It really comes down to advice I've given clients for a long-ass time (all too often, after they come to me when the shit has hit the fan): don't do business with bad people. It almost always comes back to bite you in the ass.

It seems simplistic, and it is.  But if you are looking at going into business with someone who has a known history of treating people like shit, casually lying, backing out of deals or renegotiating them once they have an ounce more power than they did before, shit like that.....they are going to do all of those things to you, too.  Don't get into business with them unless you can tolerate all of those things.  Leopards don't change their spots.

[Schulz2.0 28,962]

16 minutes ago, sidis said:

on the one hand, it really is hard to judge germany and eastern europe for being somewhat skittish about nuclear power infrastructure.  i suspect that living through spring 1986 with the potential threat of a giant radioactive cloud consuming you due to the stupidity of a bunch of fucking russian and Ukrainian idiots makes you more fearful than is practically rational.  and the relative cheapness of natural gas in the last three decades makes it hard to argue with...but man, placing all your bets on russian economic codependency and rationality is just such a bad idea.  doing business with them is the absolute last place i would want to be in any context.  

catch-22 all around.  if you're self-satisfied europe, you just hope that russia does all their gross shit behind closed doors so you can keep extracting what you want from them.  but when it crosses that line, it puts you in a difficult position.

Being scared of nuclear power because of Chernobyl is similar to being scared of driving a car because of the Ford Pinto.

[sidis 9,832]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

It really comes down to advice I've given clients for a long-ass time (all too often, after they come to me when the shit has hit the fan): don't do business with bad people. It almost always comes back to bite you in the ass.

It seems simplistic, and it is.  But if you are looking at going into business with someone who has a known history of treating people like shit, casually lying, backing out of deals or renegotiating them once they have an ounce more power than they did before, shit like that.....they are going to do all of those things to you, too.  Don't get into business with them unless you can tolerate all of those things.  Leopards don't change their spots.

agreed.  and russians (and their ilk such as Moldovans, cypriots, etc) are at the absolute bottom of the list.

but...speaking of leopards eating your face.

 

 

[sidis 9,832]

6 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Being scared of nuclear power because of Chernobyl is similar to being scared of driving a car because of the Ford Pinto.

agreed...today.  but in the 80's and 90's when these decisions were being made with political expedience and scared shitless constituents, i can understand it.

they need to alter course.

[Humble Beast 258]

And on the same day as price caps announced. What a coincidence. 
 

I guess the big question is when, if ever, will flows start again. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Humble Beast

[Auto Driller 2,506]

27 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

And on the same day as price caps announced. What a coincidence. 
 

I guess the big question is when, if ever, will flows start again. 

At the end of the day, Europe can find other energy sources. Russia absolutely cannot find other revenue sources. 
 

They’re so used to threatening their way through every negotiation that they don’t realize how truly fucked they are.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

56 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Being scared of nuclear power because of Chernobyl is similar to being scared of driving a car because of the Ford Pinto.

Seems like this gets mentioned occasionally. I'd like to see an ELI5 for this reactor.

The TMSR-LF1 will use fuel enriched to under 20% U-235, have a thorium inventory of about 50 kg and conversion ratio of about 0.1. A fertile blanket of lithium-beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) with 99.95% Li-7 will be used, and fuel as UF4.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-salt-reactor-cleared-for-start-up

because I keep hearing about it in these terms

Have you heard about Thorium? This abundant, naturally occurring metal is a clean, efficient fuel with extraordinary energy density. In fact, one ton of it produces the same energy as 3.5million tons of coal. Its byproducts are significantly safer than Uranium (Plutonium is not produced under fission) and, with shorter half-lives, degrade far faster. It does not need to be enriched and is not challenging to access. It is also a completely zero emission fuel. So, why isn’t it being considered as an alternative fuel to power shipping towards a zero
emission horizon?

https://maritime-executive.com/corporate/a-green-maritime-future-it-s-time-to-talk-thorium

[texasdago 7,575]

18 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

UK getting hammered, but sharing this more for the comment from a thread favorite. 
 

As I saw it described online, the market is forward looking. It’s telling us there aren’t going to be enough energy in Europe this winter. All that’s left over is the rationing. Who wins and who loses. 
 

Unfortunately while helpful politically in the short term, goosing demand into winter by subsidizing usage is potentially going to worsen things. 80% storage is great, but no flow will negate that. 

Good time to invest in Touring bindings and boots for the upcoming ski season?

[BabaYaga 15,301]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Seems like this gets mentioned occasionally. I'd like to see an ELI5 for this reactor.

The TMSR-LF1 will use fuel enriched to under 20% U-235, have a thorium inventory of about 50 kg and conversion ratio of about 0.1. A fertile blanket of lithium-beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) with 99.95% Li-7 will be used, and fuel as UF4.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-salt-reactor-cleared-for-start-up

because I keep hearing about it in these terms

Have you heard about Thorium? This abundant, naturally occurring metal is a clean, efficient fuel with extraordinary energy density. In fact, one ton of it produces the same energy as 3.5million tons of coal. Its byproducts are significantly safer than Uranium (Plutonium is not produced under fission) and, with shorter half-lives, degrade far faster. It does not need to be enriched and is not challenging to access. It is also a completely zero emission fuel. So, why isn’t it being considered as an alternative fuel to power shipping towards a zero
emission horizon?

https://maritime-executive.com/corporate/a-green-maritime-future-it-s-time-to-talk-thorium

Yep.  Swiss are looking into it.  The amount of waste is also exaggerated significantly

[Schulz2.0 28,962]

5 hours ago, sidis said:

agreed...today.  but in the 80's and 90's when these decisions were being made with political expedience and scared shitless constituents, i can understand it.

they need to alter course.

We knew relatively quickly after Chernobyl that the Russians had used a fucked up reactor design and had previous issues with that type of reactor that they failed to address or even put out to other operators to learn from. 

[Parliament 14,261]

And that our reactors of the era were significantly safer.  And think modern designs are an order of magnitude better yet?

[Captainant 27,680]

10 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

And on the same day as price caps announced. What a coincidence. 
 

I guess the big question is when, if ever, will flows start again. 

 

[Anastasis 23,477]

21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Time to trot out my Brisketexan "make central america and mexico our new China" post again. 

Feels like a flashback. How many democracies in the region are we going to have overthrown again to get there?  We'll call this go round "Fruit Company Part Two: No Nets Attached to Buildings Necessary".   

[Captainant 27,680]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Feels like a flashback. How many democracies in the region are we going to have overthrown again to get there?  We'll call this go round "Fruit Company Part Two: No Nets Attached to Buildings Necessary".   

I hear bill barr is free again, he could prolly cover up another contra scandal and really get those Central American countries real fucked up for a few more decades

[Brisketexan 105,160]

Feels like a flashback. How many democracies in the region are we going to have overthrown again to get there?  We'll call this go round "Fruit Company Part Two: No Nets Attached to Buildings Necessary".   

I’ll give you $100 for every functioning democracy you can find in Honduras.
Invest in infrastructure and education. Pay actual wages in an actual factory that makes marketable products. Give the crooked leadership moderate “stealing privileges” from the new money pot, because you can’t get shit done in Latin America without that (I don’t like it, you don’t like it, but that doesn’t make it any less true).
Or, you we could keep doing business with China, supporting THEIR shitty working conditions, endangering our national security, and supporting a hostile state.
Between the two options, the choice seems pretty easy.

[InkaUtexas 26,000]

And ensure companies who invest bring a strong social and community build component. Take the old US bases (there are not really that many) and turn them into Free Zones. 

US/Canada invest in Central America and the Caribbean. 

EU invest in Africa. 

Gulf States invest in SW and SE Asia.

Cut off all aid to the Junta in Burma. 

[Humble Beast 258]

28 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Feels like a flashback. How many democracies in the region are we going to have overthrown again to get there?  We'll call this go round "Fruit Company Part Two: No Nets Attached to Buildings Necessary".   

Yeah if we’re moving industry over, might as well pay to bring it here. Get people working at good jobs, maybe start reversing the fentanyl zombification of our population. 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Anastasis 23,477]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Between the two options, the choice seems pretty easy.

It's really a shame that there are only two options.

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

Russians have to do evil shit everywhere they go.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

Impressive.

 

[Brisketexan 105,160]

It's really a shame that there are only two options.

I mean….you could count on American corps to bring all such manufacturing back to the US, pay a competitive domestic wage, and have American consumers willingly pay the increased prices for consumer goods. You could count on that.
Think it’ll ever even have a snowball’s chance in hell of happening? Yeah…me neither. So, here we are.

[Anastasis 23,477]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean….you could count on American corps to bring all such manufacturing back to the US, pay a competitive domestic wage, and have American consumers willingly pay the increased prices for consumer goods. You could count on that.
Think it’ll ever even have a snowball’s chance in hell of happening? Yeah…me neither. So, here we are.

In that case, maybe we do go ahead and install the nets to project some sense of decency. 

[Brisketexan 105,160]

In that case, maybe we do go ahead and install the nets to project some sense of decency. 

We don’t do decency.
We used to have some artifice about it, but now, any shred of decency is libtard commie weakness. I was sure you got that memo. We’re inches away from proposing the reinstatement of slavery, so I wouldnt hold out much hope for our humanity.

[InkaUtexas 26,000]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russians have to do evil shit everywhere they go.

 

Not that new, but starting to get attention. Fuckers were messing around Sudan for awhile. Then lets talk Libya. Syria..... Fuck those Wagnerite Nazi's.

[Humble Beast 258]

I thought was a very entertaining conversation on the energy situation in Europe. I enjoyed it especially because there was a good bit of disagreement. More interesting than usual echo chamber stuff. 
 

A couple small points that caught my attention. 
 

High storage levels are great, but a caveat I had not heard discussed yet was that there is a limit to how much can be withdrawn on a daily basis. Evidently that number is much less than peak winter demand so ongoing flows are critical. 
 

Also, the way German industry is configured, companies renew energy 1-2’year contracts in the 4th quarter. So a lot of the pain is yet to be felt. 
 

On that note they’ve agreed to some stimulus. Will have to wait on details. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,735]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

At the risk of my receiving my usual ire, I’ll share an opinion from that Twitter space I shared that was certainly against the grain. From a European analyst with a degree from UT.

He believes that if the war gets bogged down in Donetsk and Luhansk that the “median European voter” will seek to ease sanctions in exchange for gas. Putin has botched the invasion so it’s no longer seen as a existential threat to Ukraine. He believes that in the end people make deals out of necessity. Cited that even during tense part of Cold War in 1980s Europe was helping Soviet Union build gas pipelines to Europe. We weren’t happy with that at the time either. Also believes Putin will not want to permanently strand those assets. 
 

I think the rhetoric on both sides has been too strong and runs against that thesis but worth following. 

[Humble Beast 258]

Some other news. 
 

Also, large German paper manufacturer declares insolvency due to high input costs. Will remain operational though during proceedings. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Reverses recent “increase”. More of a symbolic move against price cap imo.