Global Spring?

[atomheartbevo 89733]

 

[Foosters 17858]

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russian bots have been out in full force trying to scare casual followers of the conflict and energy situation.  The phrase they are trying to spread is being pumped out of a lot of Twitter accounts.  Makes it easy to report them for being bots.

 

No need to tell us. We've got a 23 page thread here that is just that. 

[Humble Beast 258]

3 hours ago, Foosters said:

No need to tell us. We've got a 23 page thread here that is just that. 

The best case scenario today is a substantial deindustrialization of Europe along with $1T+ worth of bailouts against the backdrop of increased inflation. Worth following closely imo. If it makes you feel scared or indifferent is up to you. 

[Humble Beast 258]

EU almost halfway to their stated demand reduction goal. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

This is awesome news. 
 

 

[bolverk 29691]

Crossposting from the Ukraine thread (h/t @MillerEP):

 

[Horns99 155]

EU almost halfway to their stated demand reduction goal. 
 
 

That’s nice for September, cold Jan or Feb going to be a different story.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Humble Beast 258]

🤔 

They’re traditionally an exporter of electricity. 

Looks like slightly more than rolling blackouts. No big deal.

 

[Parliament 14261]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

🤔 

They’re traditionally an exporter of electricity. 

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

All of these stories are just accelerating most of those countries working to be completely independent of Russian O&G.  Russia is liable to be left with Hungary and Serbia being their only customers.  Ukrainian O&G will be built out once they deal with the Russians.

[atomheartbevo 89733]

 

[dimyh 1874]

Battle of the Stan's just kicked off. I don't know their backstory but looks like we have a new conflict to fire up in the old Soviet backyard.

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28961]

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

6 hours ago, dimyh said:

Battle of the Stan's just kicked off. I don't know their backstory but looks like we have a new conflict to fire up in the old Soviet backyard.

This and the attack on Armenia wouldn’t have happened a year ago, at least not on this scale.   Now that Russia has proven to be so weak, I wonder who else is going to kick something off.  Some grievances, unfair or not, are going to be settled.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

What’s going on in Lebanon is pretty crazy. I didn’t realize funds had been frozen for 3 years. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

Russia a declining power in more ways than one

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

Hungary getting themselves in trouble with the EU, and losing a big chunk of funding 

https://www.ft.com/content/b510fcd7-396d-4909-a91f-2221f9c55a0b

[Parliament 14261]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

 

Hungary is finding out what happens when you fuck around?  Welp...

[Humble Beast 258]

German gas. @Foosters

The Good

It seems clear that the blowoff top in Natural gas prices was sovereigns paying whatever it took to get gas into storage. 
 

The Bad

 

The Ugly

 

Hope as a geopolitical strategy. Not ideal. 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

That is why you never let old people control the Twitter accounts.

[Humble Beast 258]

It’s being discussed pretty heavily in the Iran specific thread but thought I’d include here to mark its spot in the timeline. Protests began after murder of young woman. 
 

Seems like it will be a big hill climb to see meaningful change there, but I hope they can find a way. 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[Incredulity 11675]

That seems extremely stupid at the moment.

[Humble Beast 258]

Ruh roh. 
 

i think it’s reasonable to expect more of this. Population going cold and/or broke equals more populists on #bothsides.  

 

[Foosters 17858]

On 9/23/2022 at 8:26 AM, Humble Beast said:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59768195

From December, 2021:

Quote

The Belgian government has reached a deal to close seven ageing nuclear reactors by 2025.

The reactors, housed at two plants in Doel and Tihange, have long been controversial. They have been shut down repeatedly for safety checks and have sparked fear in neighbouring countries.

A compromise was reached after years of debate and overnight talks by government ministers.

The plan in principle was confirmed at a press conference on Thursday.

 

[Schulz2.0 28961]

On 9/24/2022 at 9:29 PM, Humble Beast said:

Ruh roh. 
 

i think it’s reasonable to expect more of this. Population going cold and/or broke equals more populists on #bothsides.  

 

 

[sidis 9832]

hopefully belusconi's puppets bring back the bunga bunga parties at the expense of the italian people.  but this time, i want an invite.

 

just trying to bring something enjoyable to this bizarre little doom scrolling porn thread.

[Brisketexan 105158]

9 minutes ago, sidis said:

hopefully belusconi's puppets bring back the bunga bunga parties at the expense of the italian people.  but this time, i want an invite.

 

just trying to bring something enjoyable to this bizarre little doom scrolling porn thread.

I mean, is a new Italian gov't even doom porn?  It's Italy....there'll be a new gov't in 6 months anyway.

[ABSR 5316]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean, is a new Italian gov't even doom porn?  It's Italy....there'll be a new gov't in 6 months anyway.

And isn't always better to have them be on the other side/team when the wars start so that when they switch they end up on our side?

[Humble Beast 258]

Seeing reports that the damage to Nordstream 1 and 2 is essentially irreparable. 
 

 

That gap between LNG supply and demand for next 5 years is pretty shocking. Have to think fertilizer/food shortages will be persistent problem during that period. Sad. 

[Brisketexan 105158]

7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

That gap between LNG supply and demand for next 5 years is pretty shocking. Have to think fertilizer/food shortages will be persistent problem during that period. Sad. 

If only the West would listen to the voice of reason, Vladimir Putin, we could avoid so much of this.

[Humble Beast 258]

38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If only the West would listen to the voice of reason, Vladimir Putin, we could avoid so much of this.

This has been been building for a long time. Sad part is that the West laid our own trap. Putin sprung it. Now we’re all fucked. 

[Foosters 17858]

3 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

This has been been building for a long time. Sad part is that the West laid our own trap. Putin sprung it. Now we’re all fucked. 

Yes. He remains a master strategist.

[Brisketexan 105158]

5 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Yes. He remains a master strategist.

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

[babysdaddy 2725]

37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

[Brisketexan 105158]

11 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

They are real.  And the underlying facts are true.  The Vlad-fellating is the unique feature of HB.

[ABSR 5316]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

The apparent attack had no immediate effect on European energy supplies; Nord Stream 2 has never gone into service, and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down since August.

So the impact of this to actual supply is zero.   The only thing this affects is if Putin is ever deposed/killed, Russia pulled out of Pre-2014 Ukraine, Russia returned all of the kidnapped Ukrainians, and Russia started paying reparations.....THEN we could open up the supply again.  

So yeah, big immediate impact.

AND we all know it was Russia/Putin who did it because no one else benefits and no one else is this stupid and obvious.   So Putin remains a master strategist!

[texastough 1129]

More than the Vlad fellating, its HB's conclusions based off stuff like that. Oh, gas prices are going to be high for a few years, Now We'Re aLL FucKeD!! Or, Europe was able to pivot away from its decades long reliance on Russian gas in less than a year, with minimal short term pain to completely decouple from a totally fucked country run by a genocidal maniac.

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, Foosters said:

Yes. He remains a master strategist.

 

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

 

It was smart of Putin to gain a large share of European gas market. He was always going to use it like this. 

He’s botched pretty much everything since and now he’s going to try to take us down with him. 
 

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

It’s all so tiresome.

 

6 minutes ago, ABSR said:

The apparent attack had no immediate effect on European energy supplies; Nord Stream 2 has never gone into service, and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down since August.

So the impact of this to actual supply is zero.   The only thing this affects is if Putin is ever deposed/killed, Russia pulled out of Pre-2014 Ukraine, Russia returned all of the kidnapped Ukrainians, and Russia started paying reparations.....THEN we could open up the supply again.  

So yeah, big immediate impact.

AND we all know it was Russia/Putin who did it because no one else benefits and no one else is this stupid and obvious.   So Putin remains a master strategist!

The impact of this is to supply for the next several years. My understanding is new LNG ports take 3-5 years to build so new capacity isn’t coming online soon. New Russian leader or resolved conflict could’ve allowed gas to flow as a bridge until that capacity is available. Refilling storage the next few years will be more difficult as well. 
 

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

More than the Vlad fellating, its HB's conclusions based off stuff like that. Oh, gas prices are going to be high for a few years, Now We'Re aLL FucKeD!! Or, Europe was able to pivot away from its decades long reliance on Russian gas in less than a year, with minimal short term pain to completely decouple from a totally fucked country run by a genocidal maniac.

You have to think beyond the obvious. There’s downstream effects that have been discussed here plenty. 
 

European/German deindustrialization with all the societal issues that come with it.

Fertilizer production is dependent on NG. Higher costs mean less fertilizer, means lower crop yields. Increased food scarcity. Especially in developing nations that can less afford the new high prices. 
 

Higher energy costs put upward pressure on inflation globally. 
 

We’ve seen the effects of high energy costs on seemingly strong nations with their currencies. Pound, Euro, Yen, Yuan all rekt and still worsening. The complete fallout from this is still unknown. 
 

 

[Brisketexan 105158]

11 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The complete fallout from this is still unknown. 
 

Unknown....but CELEBRATED by ahem, a certain poster.  I'm thinking there's one big answer to this.....

CRYPTO!

Oh, and also, give in to whatever Putin wants.  Can't forget that.  It's the secret ingredient that makes everything better.

[Humble Beast 258]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89733]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-leak-russian-navy-ships/index.html
 

Quote

European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines likely caused by underwater explosions, according two Western intelligence officials and one other source familiar with the matter.

It’s unclear whether the ships had anything to do with those explosions, these sources and others said – but it’s one of the many factors that investigators will be looking into. Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said.

 

Quote

Russian ships routinely operate in the area, according to one Danish military official, who emphasized that the presence of the ships doesn’t necessarily indicate that Russia caused the damage.

“We see them every week,” this person said. “Russian activities in the Baltic Sea have increased in recent years. They’re 

Quote

But one senior US official and a US military official both said Russia is still the leading suspect – assuming that the European assessment of deliberate sabotage is borne out – because there are no other plausible suspects with the ability and will to carry out the operation. 

“It’s hard to imagine any other actor in the region with the capabilities and interest to carry out such an operation,” the Danish military official said. 

Quote

Russia has requested a UN Security Council meeting on the damaged pipeline this week – something the senior US official said is also suspicious. Typically, the official said, Russia isn’t organized enough to move so quickly, suggesting that the maneuver was pre-planned.

Quote

But officials familiar with the latest intelligence say that Moscow would likely view such a step as worth the price if it helped raise the costs of supporting Ukraine for Europe. US and western intelligence officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that as electricity costs rise and winter approaches, European publics could turn against the Western strategy of isolating Russia economically. Sabotaging the pipelines could “show what Russia is capable of,” one US official said.

Quote

Russia has already taken steps to manipulate energy flows in ways that caused itself economic pain, but also hurt Europe. Russia slashed gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 before suspending flows altogether in August, blaming Western sanctions for causing technical difficulties. European politicians say that was a pretext to stop supplying gas.

 

[Superhero 8830]

3 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Germany update

But with government subsidies there’s no brake on consumption.